1. Americano

    Great post Gary.
    Agree on Nasdaq but not on gold. I think it’s either too rigged or investors ore just to “ meh “ when it comes to gold as opposed to other vehicles.

    I had hoped for a Bitcoin view after the bounce & was disappointed, before I caught myself.
    We don’t get disappointed when someone like Einstein or Hawking doesn’t paint like Picasso or Renoir.
    Horses for courses.
    Merry Christmas from……..
    The Mayflower.

  2. Bob

    Thanks Gary,
    Have a Merry Christmas and, with your help, we’ll all have a great 2018. Well, subscribers will anyways.

  3. cristo555

    I agree that you need a good understanding of cycles as well as sentiment trader and you are the go to person for that (and your Spidey sense comes in handy too). My system of technical analysis along with using several indicators was only mildly successful. That’s why I ended up resubscribing to your service and have had a great 2017. Thanks Gary and have a Merry Christmas.

  4. RTTPD

    Gary ——

    There’s a decent size contingent here, on another blog I read, and also on stocktwits who are of the mindset that the mammoth move up starts sometime in March and that Gold won’t even make it past 1290-1295 during this round. Many of them are scared to death that Bitcoin is going to steal their gold trade away.

    I’m not sure where they are getting this, but I think many of them watch way to much Max Keiser. I also know that Sunshine Profits is at least one newsletter writer that is propagating this. Of course after watching Sunshine Profits over the last few years, they may be the worst analyst out there.

    They’ve been so bearish with oil over this last trend up, just following the opposite of their advice a guy would have made a boat load of cash….

    Anyways……great video and I think you’ll be in the money with this recent call.

  5. carlvan

    Gary, thank you for all those bright analysis you offered us in 2017. Happy Holidays, and a wealthy and healthy 2018!

  6. Jim Dandy

    Bitcoin getting smoked again, Gary tried to warn the bagHODLers to sell that dinky bounce, but it´s too late. Next stop $6K, probably before the New Year, then look out below in January, as those with any profits left will want to realize them when the feel the downward momentum building. So much for the buying opportunity these guys were yapping about last week, when they should have been selling hand over fist like Charlie Lee.

    1. Jim Dandy

      And since they can´t fathom selling weakness when the fundamental story makes so much sense, they will ride it straight to the bottom, which might or might not be ZERO. We will see, but I won´t consider putting in a bid until these guys are crying that their imaginary coins are never going up again.

  7. Gary Post author

    I guess Ted will rethink his theory about me calling the bottom. If only he would have listened to me at the top.

    1. Jim Dandy

      LOL, I wouldn´t count on it, not until he has lost everything and disappeared for a year or two first. Maybe then.

    2. Nada

      Don’t forget the hindisght trader taco, who thought he was safe with his post;

      December 22, 2017 at 4:14 pm

      post the bounce chart now…LOL
      Bought the bottom”

        1. Gary Post author

          Since there’s no real time record of his trade he’ll just claim to have sold the exact top of the bounce.

          See how easy it is to make money in the market when you don’t have to make real time calls? 🙂

  8. carlvan

    Yeah the BTC thing had just its dead cat bounce as Gary warned. On the 1-4 hours chart on can now clearly see a major H&S top as this reaction yesterday drew a perfect right shoulder. Technically speaking and FWIW, 2 things happen here: the price bounces up on the neckline around 10,800 (there is a major support trendline there), then future unknown. Or it breaks through, and the measured objective is around 3,000 and below…

  9. carlvan

    (…”one” can see, not “on” can see. WordPress was better before, as you could edit your post in the first minutes)

  10. carlvan

    Well, the only thing I remember from him is that he was emprisoned 11 years for multiple fraud; he might still be a good forecaster from time to time but his “Socrates” mysterious market intelligence oracle reminds me of a similar allegation done by a local scam in my country in EU, very long ago, by a man, called Van Rossem, running a computer program called “Moneytron”, and this one ended up like Madoff, taking money from candid people, and magically transforming it into dust…at the time he said to the journalists that something went wrong with his progam and that he would need to update it. True story.

  11. Gary Post author

    The best thing that can happen to bitcoin is a complete crash now before anymore people pile into this trap and lose everything.

    1. jacob2

      Timming? IF BTC implodes history suggests a long wait until another bubble develops in another asset class. Could also be that the next speculative mania develops in something not yet born?

      1. Gary Post author

        Not necessarily. When the housing bubble imploded the liquidity flowed into the commodity markets creating a second bubble in oil.

    2. carlvan

      I agree, though I am not too sure the final crash will happen now. I think that the big boys at CBOE and now CME would like to see BTC plunge to lower levels indeed, so that they can buy it massively, running the final phase of the bubble. It is just an opinion though. On the subject, I was thinking the other day that if somenone asked me what would I prefer to own as a proof of my assets, between an electronic wallet on an USB key or a gold bar burried somewhere in my garden…well..I think gold has still good days especially in times of uncertainty. But not before BTC proofs to be just a scam. Until such time happens, gold will remain strong and perhaps consolidating gently on the upside, but when that time comes, it will jump.

      1. Gary Post author

        I can assure you smart money isn’t trying to crash the price so they can get in lower. When bubbles implode it often takes years for them to recover. If this is the final top then this thing will be dead money for a long time. There would be no point in crashing the market to get in lower. It would stay lower for years.

    3. RTTPD

      If you look at the profiles at stocktwits who are very enthusiastic, its almost all young kids…..and I mean early 20’s.

      Many of those I looked at their watchlists – everything was crypto related. I didn’t see any traditional tech, like apple or snap, just a bunch of nickel and dime and penny cryptos.

      So these weren’t PM traders that had abandoned the Gold/Silver ship for cryptos. And I dont think the problem exists at the level many are boasting about

      1. Gary Post author

        I think I would agree. A big chunk of crypto traders are younger tech geeks who saw a new technology and convinced themselves it would be world changing. In reality I think blockchain is probably just an innovative way to slow everything down. Similar to how 3D printing was a really cool way to massively slow down production. A solution without a problem.

        I think people have convinced themselves that the decentralized ledger is a paradigm shift when in reality the old ledger system and backup is much more efficient.

        The real innovation is going to come in the biotech sector, if Washington will just stay out of the way and let the sector evolve and progress.

        1. Marc

          To be fair, 3D printing is quite useful. It’s just not the “replicator” technology that the name connotes. Blockchain does have useful attributes but Bitcoin is just an example of it’s use and not a valuable product. I can’t for the life of me see how any business can run reliably using Bitcoin. One day’s action can make you wildly rich or quite poor depending on the timing.

    4. mike trike

      If bitcoin crashes low enough, below the cost of mining, the miners won’t keep mining at a loss. They will move onto another coin or create a newer and better version of bitcoin. Once the miners stop mining, the bitcoin network will collapse and Btc will be worthless. People who have their bitcoins offline or in cold storage won’t be able to get out and fortunes will evaporate instantly.

      You can stick gold in a drawer and 50 years from now it will have value, guaranteed.
      Stick bitcoin in a drawer and 50 years from now it will be worthless, guaranteed.

      Gary, I don’t know if you have done any research on Tethers but you should look into it.
      Bitfinex has created around $1 billion of Tethers out of thin air and used it to bid up/ prop up bitcoin and other cryptos. 1 tether is supposed to be backed by 1 USD but Bitfinex refuses to get audited and isn’t even affiliated with any banks, yet somehow they keep receiving millions of US dollars and create Tethers.

      Here is the twitter of the main guy exposing it

      Here is the where you can see the new Tethers created out of nothing

      1. Gary Post author

        With no regulation it’s entirely possible that a couple of hedge funds have just been buying bitcoins back and forth with each other to pump up the price and get the idiots of the world to jump in right at the top where they then unload their bitcoins to the unsuspecting herd. The volume is light in this market. It wouldn’t be hard to run the price up and then dump at the top.

        1. mike trike

          Absolutely. Wash trading makes up most of the volume on crypto exchanges. The whole thing is a scam and would collapse instantly if there was regulation.

          I still don’t understand why the USA hasn’t made cryptos illegal. Very easy to create a law that states no US company can receive cryptos as payment and No crypto exchanges are allowed on US soil and no US banks can transfer funds to and fro with any crypto exchange. The US government could end this nonsense instantly if they wanted to, but choose to allow it.

          1. Gary Post author

            I suspect they will stop it once the crash comes and everyone starts screaming for a bail out.

            When has a politician ever been proactive?

        2. RTTPD

          “With no regulation it’s entirely possible that a couple of hedge funds have just been buying bitcoins back and forth with each other to pump up the price and get the idiots of the world to jump in right at the top where they then unload their bitcoins to the unsuspecting herd. The volume is light in this market. It wouldn’t be hard to run the price up and then dump at the top.”

          Actually, I watched a video this morning that puports exactly that….

          Only that the buyers straw men set up by the US Government.

          Since the fed can print money out of thin air, they just buy enough bitcoin to take the price up 25k, suck a bunch of new people in, then sell all at one time to create a panic that destroys the exchanges.

          They repeat this process enough, it will destroy the confidence of the new potential buyers entering the market….and all but the most pureist of the pureist bit coin hodlers.

          As Cathy Fitts said on the radio a week ago – ” If the US can manipulate the 7 trillon dollar pm/gold trade, then surely they can manipulate the 250 billion Bitcoin trade. “

  12. jskauai

    Gary, much appreciation for all your videos and market insights that you share, so thank you and Merry Christmas.I was wondering if you follow the gold/silver ratio and if you would comment on what you see the cycles are saying. I am well aware of all the fundamental reasons why this ratio should fall yet it is trying to test upper end of the chart in what seems to be counter intuitive to the mining and geological fundamentals.

    1. Gary Post author

      Silver tends to move aggressively towards the end of a C-wave. That’s when the ratio will drop drastically. Notice what happened in 2010 and early 2011.

  13. Americano

    2018 is not going to be about lessons. Often when a commentator is frustrated at Trump tweets you’ll hear “ he’s 70 years old, it’s not like he’s going to stop.”
    So too with Bitcoin & those who chose to stay in merry ol England who poke fun at those who chose to take the Mayflower instead of being King George’s handmaiden.
    2018 is going to be about reminders as lessons are just not applicable.

    I am releasing my new Bitcoin prediction for 2018.
    June: $25K
    EOY: $50K

    Those that insist on staying in England all warm & snug in their red coats can still take advantage by aggressively shorting miners anywhere BELOW gold price of $1300.
    Merry Christmas…..
    From the Mayflower.

    1. ted

      Gary and others: I fully support Americano here. I am not worried. My only difference I believe 2018 EOY BTC will be closer to $40K.

      1. Americano

        It’s cool ted. At Bitcoin prices coming….,,
        It’s same as with horseshoes & hand grenades.
        Close enough works.

  14. Americano

    Can’t help but think of the correlation of my 2018 forecast with Christmas Eve & Charles Dickens “A Christmas Carol”.
    It’s as if you’ve been visited by Christmas Future. I suggest y’all watch Scrooge tonight ( in your red coats lol) & change your ways.
    This Christmas give yourself the gift…,,of redemption.
    Via Bitcoin yo. 😉

    1. Gary Post author

      And like I said this is the mentality that guarantees almost no one ever makes anything off of bubbles. There is no price at which people will be satisfied. It is utterly impossible for them to sell on the way up. And if you can’t sell on the way up, then the only alternative is to sell on the way down.

      All the bitcoin crazies can hope for now is that this isn’t the top as clearly no one took any profits at $20,000. And if bitcoin does recover that will just cement in their mind even more firmly that they are right, that price can never go down. It will just guarantee that they will hold during the next crash as well, and at some point it won’t be a temporary pullback, it will be the bubble popping.

      Americano and Ted are too far gone into bubble land to listen, but hopefully some of you will pay attention o me when I tell you the only way to make money off a bubble is a some point you have to control greed and be satisfied. Decide you have made enough.

      Clearly neither one of these guys can do that, so they are has good as broke, it doesn’t matter how much they make now they won’t be able to keep any of it when the bubble pops.

      This blog is full of people telling me over and over I’m wrong. I’m wrong about the stock market, I’m wrong about gold, I’m wrong about copper, wrong about oil, wrong about the dollar. And now I’m wrong about bitcoin. One has to wonder how many times must these people be proven wrong before they start to listen to me?

      1. faz

        C’mon you know the saying.. You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink.

        Anyway this subscriber says Thanks – looking forward to being able to put your guidance to better use next year. Wish you a peaceful festive break till then.

    1. mike trike

      I am closely watching the zinc inventories. They have been collapsing for 5 years, especially the last few months.

      If this trend continues, there will be massive gains in juniors with big zinc resources.
      V.CZX and T.SVB are a few stocks with big zinc resources that have yet to take off.
      I own them both along with T.USA and T.EXN, which are profitable producers with zinc exposure, T.USA especially.
      I also own V.IZN which is a zinc stock that is trading low right now.

      1. mike trike

        If you are bullish on resources over the next few years then you should probably own a drilling company.
        V.EGD is trading at multi year lows right now. Energold owns 9% of Impact Silver and has the same President, Fred Davidson, who is a man I trust.

        To make money in this sector you have to buy stocks with good management that are hated. Energold fits the bill perfectly.

        1. faz

          Just took a look at Casey Research archive – as this name rang a bell.

          Back in Nov 2013 when it was over C$2 they (Louis James?) said this in the International Speculator newsletter:

          “BUY FIRST TRANCHE—No news from Energold last month; it’s up slightly, but remains on sale. Pretty much what we expect from a proxy for the resource sector. Buy whenever you feel confident the market is near bottom.”

          Well the market was nowhere near the bottom, then, nor the next two years. Maybe it’s a better value now at 37c?

          1. mike trike

            Energold has not diluted its share count much since the International Speculator recommendation. I would think it is a much better value now than it was at $2 in 2013.

      2. Jim Dandy

        You got me thinking about Zinc, besides all metals generally doing very well lately, I love the 5 year chart of inventories and that the shorter term charts also look the same. I already own SVBL, but was pleasantly surprised to see that HL, HBM, and CDE (just a few examples) all have Zinc as well.

        I own these without the company specific risk in the SILJ etf. I am pleased with the outperformance coming out of this ICL, while SILJ is up over 15%, Sil is up 8%, and GDX up 7.7%. I own a bunch of SILJ already, but this has me wanting to add another big chunk on any dip, and if no dip I will continue to nibble here and there on the way up.

        1. mike trike

          the Silver COT looks extremely bullish http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/SI.png
          Companies with zinc/silver/lead production should do really well going forward if metal prices remain high.
          Take T.USA for example. The new mine they just opened will have negative cash costs per silver ounce mined due to the zinc and lead production.

          1. Jim Dandy

            SVM is another in the same boat, also in the SILJ. I´m pretty heavy into enough indvidual names for now, for my risk tolerance, even though they have done even better than my favorite etf. For example, MUX is up 18.3% and while not a Zinc miner, it does get 33% of revenues from silver, and owns a huge copper deposit in Argentina so will benefit from a bull in base metals as well as gold.

            Good luck in 2018!

    2. Cybo33

      Awesome chart.

      Even with a move in gold to the 1400 to 1500 range we could see an enormous move in the miners if they continue to move back to their normal ratio to gold.

      The question is will they and if so, when?

  15. jacob2

    Agree, thanks for the discussion regarding the commodity space regarding something other then JNUG. LIked the zinc story myself and have held HBM old turkey since October of 16 a double:


    HBM A producer of copper, zinc and silver looks to be putting in a massive ihs. SHould bode well for the others if commodities come back in vogue. Will look at your other recos.

    Thanks again, Happy Holidays.

    1. Jim Dandy

      LOL, what is the price to book value of an imaginary coin? Who cares, it will go to a million in two years!

Comments are closed.