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Thank you Gary.
Today is the last day of trading this year. Hopefully, it will be a great day. Good luck to everyone.
A piece of cake!
I am looking forward to chocolate cake.
Thanks Gary for these terrific videos. Very informative and educational.
a year-end close above 1300 gold? heads will roll,lol. a 13% gain in a 1% rate universe ain’t bad.
Higher high than previous DC. No question ICL is in now. Need a HCL now to plot trendline for DCL, but this bull is angry.
1303.40 next…the train keeps on chugging
Gold is finally sounding off “like it’s got a pair”
how will the weakening dollar affect the upcoming icl in the overall market? Very swallow?
There is a pattern in play on the Dow that I think will govern the next ICL. I’ve gone over it extensively in my premium reports for subscribers. I’m not going to publish that information here on the free blog though.
Definitely deserves a subscription !!
Gold crossed 1300 in futures few minutes ago
gold 1320 on this leg = mega bullish imo.
perfect way to celebrate the New Year (gold)
INDL @103. This is a real beauty.
LABU above 82. It is getting there.
JNUG @18.13 Thank you Gary.
sluggish action in miners.
Gary, i have a question for you. i have been following you for several years now and i want your opinion.
I believe that in order for gold to take off it must detach from being a dollar counterplay, a lot of times it feels as if gold is simply some kind of inverse dollar etf or a yen replacement.
do you think that at some point we will break free of the currency shackles? crypto for example does not care what the currencies are doing, they just rally.
I don’t think it needs to divorce from the dollar as I think the dollar has begun what will ultimately be a very destructive bear market.
thanks for your reply, gold has been very frustrating over the last couple of years. it appears that we are in a bull market again and i intend to “old turkey” this one all the way up.
Ive been following you for a long time now and appreciate a lot your insights.
One thing about the dollar and your remarks about consequences of QE.
The massive QE is a disease in the EUR just as well if not more severe. So why is it that the EUR should get away clean?
Unless, it’s in the cycles. In that case, how relevant is the QE?
Thanks and have a great year!!
When the FED started QE in 2008 the dollar went up. Who knows why.
I’m really not sure there is any such thing as fundamentals in the currencies.
Gary, thanks for this analysis. Although I think you might be very right about the dollar, there is still a totally other possibility. When looking at the DX chart on the monthly scale I couldn’t help noticing that the megafone came, not after a long trend (indeed sure sign of reversal) but at the contrary just after the birth of a new bullish trend. And in that case, a megafone or expanding pattern is often a sign of a very strong continuation move, in this case would be to the upside…we will know soon: either the lower line of the megafone will be broken down and then…kaboom; or it will act as a support and prices will rebound strongly.
Does any of the experts know why are the miners lagging so badly? What happened?
The only one that is still holding well is INDL. And, that really is a beauty. I guess it has to do with the leadership of that nation. Incredible. Could it be at an early stage of a parabolic rise?
Gold has reached a major resistance zone between 1300 and 1308. It’s likely it will have to consolidate next week or pullback a bit before it can break through that level. The miners are probably anticipating a brief stall here.
Thank you, Gary.
short term pull back for miners when miners do not respond to rise in gld price. seen it many times before.
GDX is down a penny.
10 dma needs to catch up a bit
while the gold is up 8.50?
alerted here:: https://gyazo.com/8d0b07c10b49694f07a7d80b6ddf5792
alerted here: https://gyazo.com/357f83535177ae2e9ea1373cfdce8454
*this one is important. Look at the green region on the chart, I have outlined the previous IC and this IC first daily cycles movement. I am expecting a correction here.
nada – geometry is shaping up for late jan turn (jan 25-28) – not a primary for me but a nice coincident – it could be a top now on cyclic action based on Dec28.
Morning Jimsee. If the correction occurs, a HCL would be expected, but I guess its possible for a DCL to happen as well. Your dates of Jan 25-28th for a turn back up sound very reasonable if we get a correction close to here.
I noticed above my chart on gold didn’t have the correct daily bars highlighted for this IC based on the previous. Its a little tough on the previous IC, because the hunt for the DCL was interrupted by Trump’s fire and fury tweet.. so at best its a guestimation.
I dunno, I will leave the HCL DCL for Gary to navigate.
The head and shoulders may be in play. Bitcoin is in danger zone now. Short on the break below neckline or long (I would never in a million years) if it breaks above right shoulder.
Note that the neckline is way below current levels, around 8000. In my experience, those kinds of H&S usually resolve by a false break then a HS failure to the upside
If you are going to short ( channeling the “left behind” bitterness into physical reality) now is the time!
January the past 3 years has been down for Bitcoin.
Why wait for $30K when you can get in now?
~1330 gold shows up now as a 1st leg high fwiw…
will copper have a down day?
the volume on metals futures has been generally light into a negative sentiment situation – could not imagine a more bullish setup. ‘no one’ really believes and ‘everyone’ wanted to be the first to sell their miners before year-end – nice.
getting some AG here < 7. doubled up on size.
I hope you are right jimsee. I just sold all my cde and purchased more AG. Now holding over 12 thousand shares of AG. It looks like a bargain at this price.
Interesting observations on miners in this 2 part post, I just linked to the second. This guy only comments a few times a year on the group.
I won’t show the chart again, but as I write this, Silver is 17.03. Back on December 16, I suggested that you could double your money if silver advanced from $16 to $17 by buying a silver futures contract. In two weeks that has happened. $4700 margin requirement to control 5000 troy oz of silver using a futures contract. The contract has gained 103 cents X $50 = $5,150.
Futures gives unbelievable leverage in an instrument which is easily traded in a liquid market with tools that help you easily manage the risk. Bitcoin is somewhere north of $14,000 today. The price would need to reach $29,000. There is speculating, and there is just putting it all in on #7 and hoping for the best because you don’t know what else to do.
Silver could be knocking on $18 in a few weeks. I still like my chances of doubling again my investment before the bitcoin bulls double again.
Nice trade Duuuuuude, congrats!
“Futures gives unbelievable leverage” – that scares me. If you do not time it correctly, it can destroy your account even with a stop. I cannot place any serious money on /SI but I am comfortable with riding USLV.
It is not for everybody and I did not mean to imply that MK. I manage the risk by buying at swing lows with a tight stop just below the swing, so the risk/reward ratio is very large. My point however was directed towards people who are going all into Bitcoin which is really just a hope and a prayer when there are good financial instruments available which can perform better while managing the risk. HINAP….. Hope Is Not A Plan.
So…buying silver futures contract(s) vs just buying some Bitcoin & checking on it come summer.
Do I have that right?
I don’t know the dollar value risked here but silver futures vs lotto scratcher tickets sounds more applicable.
If the dollar value is substantial & you can’t do Bitcoin until EVERYBODY else is doing it in the upcoming years……I get it.
I’d just buy practically any stock instead & sell the calls weekly.
A doubter. FBO on dollar. If we don’t get a significant rally in gold early in this year the spring/summer will drive gold down to the 1200 area. The first 2 weeks of 2018 will tell the tale of the PMs.
I got a lecture from my mentor yesterday, and he is not as bullish as I am, so be careful out there …
“I am not adding to my long position until we hit 1150, maybe we will drop to 1050”
We are one year away from the real takeoff if our plan work out as expected.
How you manage to be wrong almost 100% of the time amazes me…
LOL and yet my predictions is far better than yours, have we touched the triangle bottom yet that you predicted at midsummer!?
It was a quote from my mentor that’s why I added citation marks.
could be the Dollar a FBO as many are suggesting?
The miners are not moving ,this could be a sign that the move of the dollar is a FBO.
Fake Break Out.
It would be a fake breakdown, not break out.
No it’s not a fake breakdown. It’s a failed daily cycle and a new bear market just like I’ve been warning people.
Sorry Gary!!!! I meant FBD of course,thank you for your answer,I did sell my dollars today!
The dollar sliced right through the H&S neckline like it was not there. The Euro about to take out its late summer high. Its what is fueling this PM rally.
Silver optics still below 50. Gold below 60.
How much egg does Armstrong have on his face right now with his euro collapse nonsense?
This guy hasn’t gotten one major turn right yet he still tries to pump his software program as this all powerful artificial intelligence. Artificial ignorance is a better description in my opinion.
Certainly one of the biggest scam artists in the business.
You have to pay $750 first.
The amount of money fools will pay for crappy advice amazes me.
It’s pretty clear he’s all about trying to make people believe he’s developed a machine that can predict the future, when in reality it’s just a scam to fleece people.
He developed a scam machine. 🙂
He does too much name dropping in my opinion. He is always bragging that sovereign governments around the globe are flying him around, asking for advice.
I like Rickards but have the same problem with him.
With regard to NK —- why would The CIA chieftain or McMaster have dinner with him and then let him blurt out the military war plans all over Twitter.
It’s now sounding like a propaganda psyop.
The US gov will prop up the EUR imo – buyer of last resort = dark money ala ESF. why?
A strong dollar is not a good thing for our economy and The administration is in favor of weaker dollar / better trade for US.
Believe in the manipulation,lol 🙂
Wow, Gold is taking no prisoners today. It took out the November high and now the October high too.
1320-1330 on first leg is the bullish objective imo.
the HUI is not following …..
gold – FBO…..
It’s not a fake breakout. Gold has reached a major resistance zone between 1300-1308. The dollar needs to bounce like I said in the video.
If we get a pullback for a few days it will be your next buying opportunity.
Keep the big picture in focus. Gold and miners are going to break out of the basing pattern during this intermediate cycle.
If? price needs to breathe out. A few days pull back very likely. jdst and dust need to bounce.
RSI 4 Hours
Need to consolidate IMHO
Duuude congrats .
Obviously you can have success with futures.
How can someone come close to your level of expertise and ability regarding futures?
Any especially useful educational recourses you recommend?
1. Learn about the workings of futures contracts from free info from the CME website and your broker to understand how margin works.
2. Time entries using cycles and Sentiment as Gary recommends. I recommend entering at ICL’s only with the leverage until you become proficient with futures.
3. Always always always have a stop in place. Quickly push the stop above your cost of entry to preserve your capital.
4. Only trade one contract until you become comfortable…… then trade 2.
My wife jumps horses. She did not start jumping 5 feet in the air the first time she rode. She first teaches the horse to jump the pole while the pole is laying on the ground. When the horse and rider begin to get bored doing that, she raises the pole 6 inches……then 12…..then 24 and so on. And so it is with trading futures. You begin trading an index fund, then a leveraged fund. Then try one futures contract, then try two.
If you have a gambling problem, you will lose all your money. If you don’t use stops, you will lose all your money. If you can control your impulses, the returns are unbelievable.
For me, your comments are generally adding good value to this blog. This one was an exceptionally useful one, I suspect.
December futures made a high at $1333.5. We may have seen a major high.
You need to understand how cycles work and you would know this isn’t even close to a major high. That probably won’t occur until March or April. This is just a temporary high as both gold and the dollar need to take a breather.
Why would you be looking at Dec futures? The volume must be very thin. I see the top calling has begun 🙂
Where did you get $1333.5? I don’t see it anywhere. Did you mean $1303.5?
He was looking at the wrong contact date.
be the first to call the gold top…get’em in early 🙂 good luck to all.
Anyone taking a look at dgaz? huge move in nat gas.
For three months everyone kept trying to call the bottom prematurely. Now that we’ve got the bottom traders will start to try and call the top.
Isn’t it funny how human nature works?
Just short term pull back. Market is a 2 way street. hills and valleys, for nimble traders. Nothing new here. This picture never changes. up,down/down,up, on and on. Straight up/straight down just unrealistic.
SM tidbit and 2018 prediction.
Read the last time equities out preformed bonds for 8 years running was 1928.
Not off the cliff but past due for a real deal gut wrenching, puke in the bushes, 10 – 15 % correction. Early Spring. Hot groups hot no more. BTC rolls over in sympathy with the SM. Thinking and commentary changes. When the SM starts heading south money leaves (particularly tech) and find a new home, commodities.
Just one guys opinion, positioned, have a good 18.
A slightly different view. A collapsing dollar drives bubbles in everything. First bitcoin, which may already be imploding as the underlying technology is already becoming obsolete. Then in the stock market after another modest correction in early spring, and finally in commodities, focusing mostly in the precious metals and maybe agriculture.
Yep, anything can happen with Mr. market. Everything going up is alright by me. But I’m a big fat yellow chicken and sold half my stocks end of year and bought the truly destitute; miners, oil and WEAT. A commodity bull by default. A regression to the mean philosophy, perhaps taken too far.
Sincerely hope you’ve nailed it ….once again. Value your site and perspective.
The underlying technology of Bitcoin is becoming obsolete? Very interesting can you please provide a link to an article .I,d love to read about this .Or is the uderlyong tech for cryptos in general becoming obsolete ? Please clarify .
I agree with you that we may have seen a major top in gold, but where did that $1,333.5 number come from?
You could always get in there and short it, right before the most rip-snortin´bullish months of the year for metals.
He was looking at wrong contract.
I admittedly have a lot to learn, but I’m taking a stab at dgaz here. Bought 100 shares at 27.88. Just looking for a bounce after a 30% drop over a few days. rsi (5) oversold as is the slow stochastics. OK guys don’t rip me too bad, but I would like to hear your thoughts on this trade. Have to learn somehow.
Are you shorting natural gas with COT that bullish?
Hoping we get a normal 2 day pullback early next week in miners, so I can add. Fits with Gary´s idea of the dollar being let up for air for a couple days after it´s recent bashing.
The dollar is going to close slightly above the neckline today which should set it up for the short term bounce I outlined in the video.
NQ got smacked into and after the close.
The SPX closed below the daily cycle uptrend line. The odds are high stocks are going to now drop into a DCL.
That means traders will get their next buying opportunity in about 4-7 days.
It also means we’re going to need a third daily cycle before the larger intermediate cycle moves down into an ICL.
So instead of an ICL in late January or early February, it will now be pushed out to March.
I’ll go over the pattern in play on the Dow again in the weekend report.
Gary…. is that 4-7 trading days?
It has been clear to me for some time that the USD would be headed lower and that Gold and PM stocks would be headed higher. While nothing is certain in markets, those were my expectations…
Here are my USD posts from 12/22 and 12/13 respectively.
I believe gold is still in a secular bear market, for the following reasons:
1. James Turk has come out today with his prediction that, now that gold is above $1,300, we’ll see much higher prices in 2018. That’s laughable, because very few of his predictions ever come to pass.
2. The central banks and the PPT usually push the price marginally above wave 2, which is a counter-trend rally that occurred on October 16, 2017. They pushed it marginally above the $1,308 mark to sucker the neophytes into believing that a new bull cyclical market has begun, just before they smash it.
3. It is true that there is a seasonal tendency for gold to go up between the end of December and the beginning of March for most years. However, I believe that this time it will be inverted, and instead of going up it will go down, because of the strong rally in gold from December 12 to the end of December of this year.
4. I believe there will be a recession in 2018, which will cause the price of gold and other commodities to collapse. This is because most presidents like to engineer a recession in the early part of their first term, to get it out of the way so they may be reelected as the economy improves.
4. Gary hasn’t been 100% correct in his predictions either. He was calling for the resumption of the secular bull market in gold, all the way from its peak of September 2011, all the way down to December of 2015.
5. The charts indicate that gold is still in a secular bear market. In fact, it looks like gold will fall below $1,000 before a new secular bull market commences. Even Jim Rogers believes the price of gold should go below $1,000 before he buys any more.
Lol you are going to be wrong on every one of those counts including the one about me calling for a new bull market on the way down. I was calling intermediate cycle low’s and we were making money off of them.
Many people like to claim they caught the bottom in 2015 but I’m the only one that actually did it and in real time.
You were the only one who caught the bottom hahaha nice try …
Since you won’t enter the challenge and make real time trades no one has any idea what your calls are. All we know is that after the fact you are 100% perfect, but then no one believes that kind of crap anymore.
Real time calls:
Since the Challenge started at the end of June. The stock portfolio is up 37%. The metal portfolio is up 60%.
Over the last two years the stock portfolio is up 154%.
The metal portfolio is up 275%
Hey Slep your nr 5. is wrong too. When did Rogers ever say gold WILL fall below $1000? I just remember him say that IF it goes below $1000 he hopes he will have the sense to buy more.
SELP knows ZIP about accumulation.
P&F count, projection 💰
Interesting juncture. I suspect price will break the trend line soon. Nice chart!
Weird chart format Jake ?
Gary, what outside force would be needed to propel the gold:xau ratio towards it’s norm even as far as you hope say back to 10 or even 8.
What would make that happen? What makes you think it would make such a move?
Just a normal bull market where miners outperform gold would eventually bring the ratio back down.
Gary. What would be an estimate of GDX or NUGT price in March? Just curious. And what is your timing band for cycle to top? Around 55 days? Thanks for your videos. I’ve learned a lot in the last year from you.
That would be intermediate cycle*
About the 7:50 mark.
Ah yes. I remember watching this. Thanks. For the sake of my March Options, hopefully sooner, rather than later.
Bitcoin not looking good. New lows for the day.
Glory & riches is just a short away.
But that requires conviction manifested in physicality.
Skin in the game.
Redcoat – sure. Red blood uhhh ummm let me “think about it”
Not losing is soooooo much more mollifying to those that talked themselves out of….
Don´t worry Pilgrim, Bitcoin only has one more leg down, then you are back on your way to riches. It´s gonna be a doozy, but all you have to do is HODL, or buy more!
And Jake, you know zip about declining money velocity.
Well SLEP, that’s not happening in this part of the world.
Oh yes it is! 😝
Apparently you don’t either. We’ve had a sharp decline in money velocity since 1998 get in that time we’ve had a tech bubble, a real estate bubble, a massive inflation in the commodity markets, specifically in energy, a bitcoin bubble, and we are entering the bubble phase in the stock market.
I think just about anyone other than the most dense person in the world would have to admit, money velocity is a useless concept.
LOL! You’ve got to be kidding! You don’t know DIDDLY-SQUAT! 😝
‘..most dense person in the world..’
Thanks and goodnight 🙂
I sold out 30% of my portfolio yesterday, nice to have some dry powder in the coffin.
If geopolitical violence is marker for a turn in gold markets, we got a change yesterday. Another gang-rape in Malmö and a couple of hours later the blew up a police car … welcome to Swedistan!
Happy New Year! And just remember, no matter how bad Malmo is, it never EVER get this bad….
I could give you a tour through the west side of Charm City –and it wouldn’t be a tenth as bad as this.
Neither will affect the PM trade.
Don´t be too eager to cash out of winners, we have to be in them on the best days.
Bitcoin looking good. Sell that $hitcoin. I think we test the Christmas Eve lows before weekend end;
Bitcoin did, and is doing just exactly what I said would happen. It bounced after the initial plunge just enough to keep everyone convinced this was just another correction so they kept holding.
Now it should drag everyone into the depths of hell. By the time everyone accepts the party is over they will already be so far underwater that they won’t be able to sell. They will then ride it all the way down to the bottom. The bottom in bitcoin is going to be a 95% or greater loss.
Ted called the exact top when he told everyone to buy GBTC at $3400.
There is no shortage of fools in the world.
Folks if you can’t sell into a parabolic rally stretched 240% above the 200 DMA then yes you meet the definition of fool.
Yes, some wise quotes from our basement crypto trader:
December 22, 2017 at 11:17 am
I am buying more GBTC today. The bitcoin rally is not over. Truly not over. In fact, I am 100% sure all of you will regret not buying these dips in a year.
December 22, 2017 at 12:29 pm
I with Americano, Gary called the bottom!!
December 23, 2017 at 9:01 am
After some research, I have concluded the sell off in the cryto’s this week was a needed correction but DEFINITELY not the top. In fact, I am buying more DASH and GBTC. Those of you that follow my choice, will be happy in 2018-2019. This thing is just getting going!
Thanks for picking the bottom Gary!
I stick by my call of $6K by Jan.1, still have two days, and at this rate my prediction appears conservative. The Mayflower is taking on water!
Loos like the Bitclowns should have bought Ripple, now in second place and gaining steam by the day, already 40%+ of the market cap of Chitcoin which is rapidly becoming antiquated.
They will still have their Bitcoins, only the price will be different.
Wow RTTPD that’s chocking, no we do not have that in Sweden, it’s very clean and tidy even in the worst areas, but if we continue to go down this path, yes give it a couple of decades.
No worries Jim Dandy, looking at many miners you can just sit back and relax. Wait for the Kondratiev inflationary spring wave to arrive.
I sold my two biggest gainers Castle Silver and Defiance. They had a too large part of my portfolio.
HAPPY NEW YEAR 🙂
The quote for the December’18 futures contract ($1333,5) was correct. You can check it here:
I will respond to your comments later.
Comments are closed.