80 thoughts on “DOLLAR COLLAPSE

  1. Gary Post author

    The metals are probably going to consolidate for a bit after the big move off the bottom.

    This is when most of the weak hands get thrown off right before the next move up. The same thing happened in early August during the last IC advance.

    1. Nada

      Agreed. The evidence for the ICL is overwhelming. With that said, the only factor that I see that is “questionable” was the duration of this IC. I see some cycle gold guys still claiming the ICL will not be until late Jan. Cycle duration seems like the weakest piece of the puzzle to me.

      1. Nada

        With that said, I have *never* seen a daily cycle this strong in the 3rd-4th DC of an IC, so there is no question in my mind that the ICL was struck at the .786 fib 1 day before FOMC.

          1. Gary Post author

            I noted months ago that the last three cycles were longer than normal and we would need a short one at some point to balance out the longer yearly cycle.

            It actually turned out to be normal rather than short, but the ICL came right when it was supposed to before the end of the year.

    2. optimal

      Gary,

      In 2014, dollar was also very down as you pointed out and gold was going down very strongly. In light of this, is there any scenario where Gold and the dollar go down together?? Thank you.

  2. mrsschroeder

    I’m a bit worried about the MIFID II changes that are being implemented with the new year (at least in Europe). Retailers like me wont be allowed to buy ERX, LABU and any other ETFs or ETCs or other “complex” instruments. Right now I have SPY and LABU and if I sell them I can’t ever buy them again.

    I think this is really awful!!!

    And what’s going to happen to markets??

  3. Gary Post author

    Be careful of reading too much into chart patterns today.

    Remember metals are one of the most heavily manipulated markets. Smart money can paint the tape to cause you to sell your position to them ahead of the next leg up.

    Watch the dollar. If it continues to collapse then gold will continue to rise.

  4. Americano

    Holy…..”Crazy Oscar” Carboni & Ira Epstein ( both well known futures guys) now covering Bitcoin.
    The interest building in the Mayflower (aka Bitcoin)
    Is gonna make the regular stock market look as boring as gold in 2018 !
    For all those still bitter back in England…..
    South Korea might ban Bitcoin. China did that in October. So at least you have that to look forward to !

    1. Nada

      Morning Americano. Nothing against the guy personally, but I can not stand to watch Oscar’s videos. His appearance and voice are most annoying. Regardless, there are tons of bloggers/subscription sellers that are jumping on the bitcoin train to promote their own self interest (selling subscriptions). I must say, its rather refreshing to hear Gary say stay the hell away.

      I am sure he could have put out tons of bitcoin charts and promoted his own service, but what does Gary do? He offers hardship cases and keeps telling everyone its a bubble. A true Christmas miracle.

      1. Lenapowich

        Omgod, I couldn’t agree with you more Nada about Oscar’s voice . It’s like listening to nails on a chalk board. He isn’t even very good with his forecasts.

  5. Americano

    I thought it was interesting from an institutional standpoint. I see both guys as VERY short term trades and Very tied to CBOE/CME.
    Gary is different kettle of fish vs those guys. More of a sniper for intermediate trends as he uses sentiment to hit TA before moves occur. Oscar & Ira are strictly TA/day stuff. I agree that TA is so goosed by bots that once a pattern is seen it’s already over.
    I DO WISH Gary did Bitcoin more.
    But that has more to do with me being a Christian & having empathy…..than anything else.

  6. Jimsee

    the metals should put in some volatility here Dec28 – if they chug on to Jan 8 it’s full on bull imo.

    copper is tipping the hand imo – 16 days str8 up hard to new yrly highs from the Dec5.

    1. Americano

      Steff, FYI.
      H&S very RARELY manifest in Bitcoin. I do not know why. This is common on crypto boards – how they don’t. If this unicorn manifests…..,I will meet you & Nada @ 8K 😉

  7. Lenapowich

    I am finally into a little profit on my GDXJ but worried about the weakness of the past few days. Scared of the dreaded “rug pulls” that seem to happen every time the miners show some life.

  8. Jimsee

    there’s only one real reason to be ‘over the moon’ on btc – the inability to trade – believing in a 20X or more return for hodl, means the art of trading is unnecessary to gain top trader like returns.

    that’s fine – been there done that myself in the dotcom era, as have many folks here I bet. it’s part of becoming a trader.

    but the ‘sturm and drang’ drum beating is a bit silly if you are over 30.

  9. Americano

    One of the cool things I learned from Gary during the 2016 gold run was how sideways if significant enough in duration serve as a correction.
    While this can show with gold I am heavily biased AGAINST gold because i think it’s a scammy investment vehicle. I state this from pragmatism. I also wouldn’t try to convert a Schnauzer into a sled dog.
    I mention the above in terms of NASDAQ & the Mayflower.

  10. Anthonyo

    Terminal collapse of USD? Really?
    Why this focused obsession against USD??
    Doomers and gloomers predicted the sam ein 2007-2008 debt crisis: and since then the USD has been dying of the same heart attack since the great recession crash of 2007-2008.
    Except that it hasn’t, didn’t, and probably will not UNTIL Euro goes to zero first.

    Why will USD crash and burn now? Pipe dream of RT and all the anti-Americans all over the world and the enemies within.

    It seems Euro will do that way before USD, as USD is and will be the currency of last resort when the S hits the fan in EU, Asia the scared money will come into USD and US stocks.

    Besides with interest rates on the rise in US, USD ain’t gonna go anywhere anytime soon.
    Where is the inflation? I don’t see it.

    Only inflation is in stock prices and housing right now.

    1. Nada

      Good stuff Anthonyo. I agree with the BS of RT. The petroyuan agenda might account for the recent developments in the dollar. I honestly have no idea how long this correction will last or if the bear will remain, but I have learned never to discount a whistling dixie.

      1. Anthonyo

        Hi Nada,
        I hear you. but PRC will never be able to replace Yuan with USD and have a legitimately popular market in oil, or long lasting.
        Sure, a few rogue regimes like Iran and N. Korea may join in or nibble in, but PRC is a long way away from posing any financial or military threats to the US still.
        Other similar BS attempts of a alternate currency to trade oil were tried in the past, as well, to no long-lasting avail.

        What gets me is the shear hatred and despise for USD which is emotional rather than based on logic or even cycles, calling USD “terminal” is one of those traits.
        All I can say to that is: Dream on.

        Doomers and Gloomers said the world was ending in 2007-2008 and USD is going to go to zero.
        Not gonna happen dude.

        Euro will be gone long before USD.

  11. Nada

    Gary quick cycle question. When a cycle fails, is there not typically one more daily cycle before the descent into the ICL? What are the numbers vs the failed cycle being the final DC in an IC.

  12. jacob2

    End of year FBO of dollar?

    Lots of dollar bears. Everyone was a dollar bull the end of last year and how did that turn out? Perhaps, this last month was all about manager window dressing showing they we’re right in being long the euro and short the dollar. Don’t see a fundamental economic reason the dollar will collapse to 80. Dollar trading reversal UP with the new year and yearly range 90 – 100.

    Won’t make me happy but all too likely IMVHO.

  13. Stevephen

    I’d like to be educated more on the limitations of the growing bitcoin family that all use blockchain, not by those that think they absolutely know the future. Tiring for me. In my discovery of what blockchain does, it looks a bit tentative to say the least. An impressive beginning for the rabbit in this race, but the end is full of hazards most people are not interested in knowing. Anyway, just one listen to Leeman Baird and my half a brain is snapped alert that bitcoin has a number of serious problems to address. Blockchain. Is there going to be a blockchain update? But it might be too late. Fantastic technology that can replace it like hash graph, for instance or someone else sooner or later. And then someone else to upgrade hashgraph. The view from the the front window of the space ship we sit in is clearly not knowable. I totally admire Gary and love his service.

    1. Americano

      Yeah Steve….so many unknowables the road is fraught with uncertainty.
      Psssst….
      That where the margin is.
      You’ll recognize that next year. Maybe I should have said “spoiler alert” previously.
      Anyone mentioning “hashgraph” still has a LONG WAY to go.
      If hashgraph or….Egad…..something BETTER ( hashgraph+ perhaps) has ANY usefulness in public real world use….
      It will simply be co-opted by Bitcoin…..as a side chain. While keeping Bitcoins deflationary 21 million limit monetary algorithm.
      But I’m biased, I’m writing from…..
      The Mayflower.

      1. Nada

        Uppity Puritans always think the grass is greener on the other side of the fence. I think bitcoin drives down to 8k, so I hope that Mayflower has not been too weathered to support another storm.

        1. Americano

          Rather, comfortable -subsistence- isn’t acceptable.
          Mayflower is chosen because what looks like an asymmetric bet to those in England……actually isn’t.
          It’s a daily Rorschach’s Test showing how much more they value being right ( or perhaps just not wrong AGAIN) vs $ gains.
          Whatever gets you through the night right lol.

    1. Americano

      Not a relic. It’s essential. Gold due to its ease of manipulation ( un-auditable, elastic supply ( addl mines/asteroids lol) and the fact that nobody knows exactly how much there is…..
      Is used by central banks to draft their fiat money behind.
      Remember when Treasury Sec Mnuchin went to Fort Knox in Sept before the debt ceiling deadline?
      If the debt ceiling went sideways USA would not default. They would simply use the gold “held” at ft Knox to monetize at today’s price.
      Gold is essential to keep the fiat Ponzi scheme presentable.
      It is for governments to use not citizens.
      I’ve been victimized by gold for years. JNUG helped me get out the cycle of abuse. Gold is essential to watch for Bitcoin because that is where the most obvious initial transfer of value will come from.
      The Mayflower isn’t even 5% of gold value yet. My EOY estimate is 10%.

    1. Gary Post author

      If that is the case then how in the world is the euro starting a new bull market?

      Apparently Europe isn’t anywhere near as bad as the perma bears would like to believe.

        1. Gary Post author

          People have been giving me reasons for a year for why the dollar should be going up. The reality is that it’s going down.

          The consequences of years of QE are now coming back to bite us in the ass. If the Fed doesn’t speed up and drastically increase the magnitude of the rate hikes, I suspect there will be nothing that can save the dollar.

    1. Gary Post author

      During that time gold experienced a bloodbath phase into an ICL. From the bottom of the ICL GLD is up 4.6% and the juniors are up 13%. Not bad for the first 11 days of a new intermediate cycle.

      1. vin

        Gary, that is only a part of the story. A couple of weeks ago you had suggested jnug @ $12 and a few dimes. Today it closed @17.91 a little less than 50% gain. WOW!

        Great call, Gary. It would have been nice if I had listened to your advice. Nevertheless, I did get in later and made some few great lunches as Goild would say.

        Thank you.

        Wish the best 2018 ever. And, to all at this board.

        Let us pray that Trump succeeds in making it a terror-free world in 2018

        1. faz

          Keep praying Vin.. seems like you never heard Roosevelt’s warning about the industrial military complex.
          Governments are not interested in eliminating terror.

  14. Gary Post author

    The dollar has now confirmed a failed cycle by moving below the November low.

    There is nothing the Fed can do to stop the collapse at this point other than to dramatically start raising rates which they will not do.

    80 is going to be a piece of cake in the dollar next year and even lower isn’t going to be out of the question.

    1. Gary Post author

      That may be a short term top. Only temporary though. Gold is going much higher during this intermediate cycle. It’s going to break out of the basing pattern.

  15. JJHarmen

    The S&P and the DOW both came within a hair of making fresh all time highs. I predict another dead trading day with a new closing high for the DOW and also possibly the S&P but no new intraday highs.

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