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Long time lurker. I am close to buying ERY and or DRIP, but with the drop in the dollar, I am now rethinking.
Bitcoin update. Nice bounce, but still in trouble here;
https://gyazo.com/9357ba9ecb8a5c28bea84dc9504f44bf
Dollar update;
https://gyazo.com/e43c4af6bf901f119e98a92e52efc2ab
Gartley update. Would love to see correction to 200ma. Doubtful this early. The blue area next to the green shows the expected range in this daily cycle based on previous (5.5%)
https://gyazo.com/bf65c8b8843a4f4a2997ec9e9604d987
The metals are probably going to consolidate for a bit after the big move off the bottom.
This is when most of the weak hands get thrown off right before the next move up. The same thing happened in early August during the last IC advance.
Agreed. The evidence for the ICL is overwhelming. With that said, the only factor that I see that is “questionable” was the duration of this IC. I see some cycle gold guys still claiming the ICL will not be until late Jan. Cycle duration seems like the weakest piece of the puzzle to me.
With that said, I have *never* seen a daily cycle this strong in the 3rd-4th DC of an IC, so there is no question in my mind that the ICL was struck at the .786 fib 1 day before FOMC.
It bottomed right in the middle of a normal IC timing band at 22 weeks.
Gary, here is a representation on the chart of the previous IC timing duration. You can see this IC was shorter than the previous 3 (156 day vs 200+). As I said above, I am not doubting the ICL. I am highlighting the duration.
https://gyazo.com/1c8a7ee76f214790e0ddc99a26c3a3e8
I noted months ago that the last three cycles were longer than normal and we would need a short one at some point to balance out the longer yearly cycle.
It actually turned out to be normal rather than short, but the ICL came right when it was supposed to before the end of the year.
Agreed. Thanks for the input.
I intend to add into the consolidation if it occurs, in fact did a little buying this morning in some that have pulled back yesterday and today.
Gary,
In 2014, dollar was also very down as you pointed out and gold was going down very strongly. In light of this, is there any scenario where Gold and the dollar go down together?? Thank you.
After 50% rise in jnug, some consolidation is normal. Next target sept high?
I’m a bit worried about the MIFID II changes that are being implemented with the new year (at least in Europe). Retailers like me wont be allowed to buy ERX, LABU and any other ETFs or ETCs or other “complex” instruments. Right now I have SPY and LABU and if I sell them I can’t ever buy them again.
I think this is really awful!!!
And what’s going to happen to markets??
Be careful of reading too much into chart patterns today.
Remember metals are one of the most heavily manipulated markets. Smart money can paint the tape to cause you to sell your position to them ahead of the next leg up.
Watch the dollar. If it continues to collapse then gold will continue to rise.
thx gary!
Holy…..”Crazy Oscar” Carboni & Ira Epstein ( both well known futures guys) now covering Bitcoin.
The interest building in the Mayflower (aka Bitcoin)
Is gonna make the regular stock market look as boring as gold in 2018 !
For all those still bitter back in England…..
South Korea might ban Bitcoin. China did that in October. So at least you have that to look forward to !
Morning Americano. Nothing against the guy personally, but I can not stand to watch Oscar’s videos. His appearance and voice are most annoying. Regardless, there are tons of bloggers/subscription sellers that are jumping on the bitcoin train to promote their own self interest (selling subscriptions). I must say, its rather refreshing to hear Gary say stay the hell away.
I am sure he could have put out tons of bitcoin charts and promoted his own service, but what does Gary do? He offers hardship cases and keeps telling everyone its a bubble. A true Christmas miracle.
Omgod, I couldn’t agree with you more Nada about Oscar’s voice . It’s like listening to nails on a chalk board. He isn’t even very good with his forecasts.
So tomorrow is the last trading day of the year, adios to 2017.
Copper day 16 – wow.
I tried to warn Ped that there was nothing wrong with the copper chart.
Do you miss Ped? I know you two chatted it up a lot.
I thought it was interesting from an institutional standpoint. I see both guys as VERY short term trades and Very tied to CBOE/CME.
Gary is different kettle of fish vs those guys. More of a sniper for intermediate trends as he uses sentiment to hit TA before moves occur. Oscar & Ira are strictly TA/day stuff. I agree that TA is so goosed by bots that once a pattern is seen it’s already over.
I DO WISH Gary did Bitcoin more.
But that has more to do with me being a Christian & having empathy…..than anything else.
the metals should put in some volatility here Dec28 – if they chug on to Jan 8 it’s full on bull imo.
copper is tipping the hand imo – 16 days str8 up hard to new yrly highs from the Dec5.
Blockchain stocks down harder than Bitcoin´s pullback would suggest. Maybe they are foreshadowing the next big leg down in bitcoin?
Nothing to worry about. Ted says its different this time.
Beautiful picture perfect H&S patterns in both the dollar and bitcoin. With that said I will be back next week after the Super Full Moon 1st Jan 2018.
https://www.sydsvenskan.se/images/Xe0EJQvdTHEFftEtT-x5YgaeR-o.jpeg
from the bridge Öresundsbron between Sweden and Denmark.
Happy New Year!
Thanks Steff and keep up the resistance movement! God bless Sweden.
My country is also turning into a shithole, I rarely vote but I might make an exception and vote right wingers.
What country are you living in MikeD? Best of luck.
Steff, FYI.
H&S very RARELY manifest in Bitcoin. I do not know why. This is common on crypto boards – how they don’t. If this unicorn manifests…..,I will meet you & Nada @ 8K 😉
Also….aren’t new moons corrections & full moons go up?
Because of taxes, the only trading I can do with Mayflower is in IRA.
I am finally into a little profit on my GDXJ but worried about the weakness of the past few days. Scared of the dreaded “rug pulls” that seem to happen every time the miners show some life.
there’s only one real reason to be ‘over the moon’ on btc – the inability to trade – believing in a 20X or more return for hodl, means the art of trading is unnecessary to gain top trader like returns.
that’s fine – been there done that myself in the dotcom era, as have many folks here I bet. it’s part of becoming a trader.
but the ‘sturm and drang’ drum beating is a bit silly if you are over 30.
One of the cool things I learned from Gary during the 2016 gold run was how sideways if significant enough in duration serve as a correction.
While this can show with gold I am heavily biased AGAINST gold because i think it’s a scammy investment vehicle. I state this from pragmatism. I also wouldn’t try to convert a Schnauzer into a sled dog.
I mention the above in terms of NASDAQ & the Mayflower.
Terminal collapse of USD? Really?
Why this focused obsession against USD??
Doomers and gloomers predicted the sam ein 2007-2008 debt crisis: and since then the USD has been dying of the same heart attack since the great recession crash of 2007-2008.
Except that it hasn’t, didn’t, and probably will not UNTIL Euro goes to zero first.
Why will USD crash and burn now? Pipe dream of RT and all the anti-Americans all over the world and the enemies within.
It seems Euro will do that way before USD, as USD is and will be the currency of last resort when the S hits the fan in EU, Asia the scared money will come into USD and US stocks.
Besides with interest rates on the rise in US, USD ain’t gonna go anywhere anytime soon.
Where is the inflation? I don’t see it.
Only inflation is in stock prices and housing right now.
Good stuff Anthonyo. I agree with the BS of RT. The petroyuan agenda might account for the recent developments in the dollar. I honestly have no idea how long this correction will last or if the bear will remain, but I have learned never to discount a whistling dixie.
Hi Nada,
I hear you. but PRC will never be able to replace Yuan with USD and have a legitimately popular market in oil, or long lasting.
Sure, a few rogue regimes like Iran and N. Korea may join in or nibble in, but PRC is a long way away from posing any financial or military threats to the US still.
Other similar BS attempts of a alternate currency to trade oil were tried in the past, as well, to no long-lasting avail.
What gets me is the shear hatred and despise for USD which is emotional rather than based on logic or even cycles, calling USD “terminal” is one of those traits.
All I can say to that is: Dream on.
Doomers and Gloomers said the world was ending in 2007-2008 and USD is going to go to zero.
Not gonna happen dude.
Euro will be gone long before USD.
PRC does not want to be the empire currency (not in the next 20 years anyway).
Strawman typical arguments.
Gary quick cycle question. When a cycle fails, is there not typically one more daily cycle before the descent into the ICL? What are the numbers vs the failed cycle being the final DC in an IC.
There can be multiple failed and left translated daily cycles, especially if the intermediate cycle is left translated like the dollar is.
LOL, let this guy teach you how to become a bitcoin millionaire. Check out the comments streaming on the side. In the two minutes I watched, the Bitclowns must have asked about 400 different ¨coins¨. Yeah, it´s not overheated at all, everybody just pumping their ¨coin¨.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FecZulhCtj0
Ahh, forget it. It was live but he closed the session so comments have slowed down.
THIS is the kind of stuff which will drive gold higher…not any imaginary inflation…
More chaos and mayhem and wars to come.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/general-nuclear-weapons-diplomacy-military/2017/12/27/id/834018/
End of year FBO of dollar?
Lots of dollar bears. Everyone was a dollar bull the end of last year and how did that turn out? Perhaps, this last month was all about manager window dressing showing they we’re right in being long the euro and short the dollar. Don’t see a fundamental economic reason the dollar will collapse to 80. Dollar trading reversal UP with the new year and yearly range 90 – 100.
Won’t make me happy but all too likely IMVHO.
I’d like to be educated more on the limitations of the growing bitcoin family that all use blockchain, not by those that think they absolutely know the future. Tiring for me. In my discovery of what blockchain does, it looks a bit tentative to say the least. An impressive beginning for the rabbit in this race, but the end is full of hazards most people are not interested in knowing. Anyway, just one listen to Leeman Baird and my half a brain is snapped alert that bitcoin has a number of serious problems to address. Blockchain. Is there going to be a blockchain update? But it might be too late. Fantastic technology that can replace it like hash graph, for instance or someone else sooner or later. And then someone else to upgrade hashgraph. The view from the the front window of the space ship we sit in is clearly not knowable. I totally admire Gary and love his service.
Yeah Steve….so many unknowables the road is fraught with uncertainty.
Psssst….
That where the margin is.
You’ll recognize that next year. Maybe I should have said “spoiler alert” previously.
Anyone mentioning “hashgraph” still has a LONG WAY to go.
If hashgraph or….Egad…..something BETTER ( hashgraph+ perhaps) has ANY usefulness in public real world use….
It will simply be co-opted by Bitcoin…..as a side chain. While keeping Bitcoins deflationary 21 million limit monetary algorithm.
But I’m biased, I’m writing from…..
The Mayflower.
Uppity Puritans always think the grass is greener on the other side of the fence. I think bitcoin drives down to 8k, so I hope that Mayflower has not been too weathered to support another storm.
Rather, comfortable -subsistence- isn’t acceptable.
Mayflower is chosen because what looks like an asymmetric bet to those in England……actually isn’t.
It’s a daily Rorschach’s Test showing how much more they value being right ( or perhaps just not wrong AGAIN) vs $ gains.
Whatever gets you through the night right lol.
My guess, bitcoin wants to re-visit the day’s low;
https://gyazo.com/f4535998bcd5ae5964dd658bd550e4c8
Nice call. Pffffft!!!
ung, boil, ugaz on the move. pms stuck sideways.
if gold is so useless just ignore it…useless relic…wtf are central banks thinking hoarding that shi&??
Not a relic. It’s essential. Gold due to its ease of manipulation ( un-auditable, elastic supply ( addl mines/asteroids lol) and the fact that nobody knows exactly how much there is…..
Is used by central banks to draft their fiat money behind.
Remember when Treasury Sec Mnuchin went to Fort Knox in Sept before the debt ceiling deadline?
If the debt ceiling went sideways USA would not default. They would simply use the gold “held” at ft Knox to monetize at today’s price.
Gold is essential to keep the fiat Ponzi scheme presentable.
It is for governments to use not citizens.
I’ve been victimized by gold for years. JNUG helped me get out the cycle of abuse. Gold is essential to watch for Bitcoin because that is where the most obvious initial transfer of value will come from.
The Mayflower isn’t even 5% of gold value yet. My EOY estimate is 10%.
This Mayflower will sink.
Nahh, he has it all figured out. Gold can´t be audited!
long ACBFF. Breaking out today.
sold it out today, I’m afraid for a future dilution because of CanniMed. Will see…
Mixed algo buying/selling at end of day in gold/miners. They sold GDX and bought GDXJ and GLD.
One problem with the dollar collapse theory is as turbro Tim said Europe is burning.
If that is the case then how in the world is the euro starting a new bull market?
Apparently Europe isn’t anywhere near as bad as the perma bears would like to believe.
Gary,
Re the Euro.. all the money coming from their banks “back to america’ under the tax redo…??
Wont that drag it down….??
People have been giving me reasons for a year for why the dollar should be going up. The reality is that it’s going down.
The consequences of years of QE are now coming back to bite us in the ass. If the Fed doesn’t speed up and drastically increase the magnitude of the rate hikes, I suspect there will be nothing that can save the dollar.
Expect a temporary bounce if the dollar breaks the November low in the next day or two. Only 2-4 days and then the final move down into the DCL would begin.
How do you see the miners reacting to this plunge in the dollar?
They may have to consolidate for a few days, but the intermediate cycle is just getting started.
If the dollar is in trouble, wouldn`t we see more of a rise in the 10 year treasury yield
Was there any correlation between the dollar and yields during the last bear market?
If not, then why would there be this time?
GLD, as a proxy for gold, is currently up a whopping 0.03% from where it was at one month ago. Kinda takes you breath away.
During that time gold experienced a bloodbath phase into an ICL. From the bottom of the ICL GLD is up 4.6% and the juniors are up 13%. Not bad for the first 11 days of a new intermediate cycle.
Gary, that is only a part of the story. A couple of weeks ago you had suggested jnug @ $12 and a few dimes. Today it closed @17.91 a little less than 50% gain. WOW!
Great call, Gary. It would have been nice if I had listened to your advice. Nevertheless, I did get in later and made some few great lunches as Goild would say.
Thank you.
Wish the best 2018 ever. And, to all at this board.
Let us pray that Trump succeeds in making it a terror-free world in 2018
Keep praying Vin.. seems like you never heard Roosevelt’s warning about the industrial military complex.
Governments are not interested in eliminating terror.
Wish you the best 2018 ever. And, to all on this board.
The dollar has now confirmed a failed cycle by moving below the November low.
There is nothing the Fed can do to stop the collapse at this point other than to dramatically start raising rates which they will not do.
80 is going to be a piece of cake in the dollar next year and even lower isn’t going to be out of the question.
$1300 gold, not too shabby.
That may be a short term top. Only temporary though. Gold is going much higher during this intermediate cycle. It’s going to break out of the basing pattern.
The S&P and the DOW both came within a hair of making fresh all time highs. I predict another dead trading day with a new closing high for the DOW and also possibly the S&P but no new intraday highs.
Buffet comments on Crypto currencies ” Bad Ending”