206 thoughts on “DOLLAR CRISIS

  1. RTTPD

    Gary ——

    Jim Rickards has been preaching the identical message in your video for the last 3/4 months over and over.

    ” The fed is/was way behind the curve and they shoulda started hiking rates a long time ago…..and
    now that dollar is in trouble they haven’t hiked enough so as to lower them again to stave off a contagion ”

    As Nada and a few others have already mentioned : The exact opposite of what Shortn’ Sally was predicting is now happening….

    1. Gary Post author

      Sally and Ped have been on the wrong side of this for a long time. Their perma bear bias has prevented them from seeing what is happening.

    2. Anthonyo

      Jim Rickard has been wrong for decades and decades.
      This USD crash and burn theory is so old and tired now.

  2. trendyfollower

    I hear ya and I am now positioned in PMs for Old Turkey. Unless we break below yesterday’s lows. It took a lot of patience to get positioned and the whole bull market basing pattern was just so frustrating. I’m not nimble enough to play short term and just love love love how rising PMs and stocks reduce portfolio volatility so much. Can’t wait for this to happen again.

  3. LeilaniFarms

    Thanks for the video update Gary. I am glad that I am on the same side of the markets as you. Makes me feel a little better.

    Here is a Monthly EUR/USD chart and you will see a Decade long Downtrend since 2007.

    Next, drop down to the Weekly and you can see that decade long downward Trend Line in sight! Looks as though this area for EUR/USD coincides with my earlier chart for USD as a good place to reassess.

    Here is the USD chart I posted earlier for those of you who missed it:

    So with all of the above considered, Gold / Silver & Miners are good to go for their next leg up.

  4. primetime

    Most people buying the PMs today will be jumping ship within a month if not sooner. Gundlach, according to zero hedge, has called the trade for 2018: commodities. I have decent sized positions in miners, spot metals, TQQQ, oil, and other commodities. Will continue to sit back, be patient, improve positions when I can and see what happens.

      1. primetime

        Entered miners at the baby bull and have held old turkey since, and will continue to hold old turkey. Have improved and increased position size over time. Documented over many posts over many months here. In energy since April this year, TQQQ over the last couple months, USLV over last month, and dabbling in coffee and NG most recently.

        I am skeptical b/c these 10% bounces happen all the time only to lose 15-20% within the next week. The banksters love fleecing the little guy.

        1. LeilaniFarms

          OK, well that says a lot. If you have been holding onto miners for the past year then of course you are probably skeptical and a little frustrated by now. But, if you weren’t holding onto leveraged funds then it really won’t matter in the end.

          Metals and Miners along with just about every commodity will be experiencing a new multi-year bull market which starts NOW.

          1. primetime

            Great, I welcome your confidence. Your posts are appreciated here. As our fearless leader has said until blue in the face: In a bull market all timing mistakes will eventually be corrected. Ultimately, JNUG 500!

  5. LeilaniFarms

    Right on PrimeTime, thanks for the welcome.

    I remember last year when Gary mentioned JNUG 500 as well as “in a bull market all timing mistakes will eventually be corrected.”

    I totally agree with him on that as far as regular mining stocks as well as ETF’s like GDX and GDXJ. I’m not sure how to look at it with 3x leveraged funds due to volatility drag or decay, however, I can actually see JNUG going to 500 from where its at now split adjusted of course just as Gary has suggested.

    This is based on my belief and theory that gold will probably be going to around $5,000 per oz in the coming 3-4 years and Silver to probably $150. These are not just random numbers I’m shooting out of my mouth. There is reasoning behind this but definitely not going to get into it here. haha

    Anyways, I’m long JNUG 300 shares @ 12.67 with a 6 month timeframe but will always be flexible. Expecting about a 6x-7x return in that amount of time with JNUG. We’ll see…

  6. primetime

    Amen FARMS,
    As goild would say, let’s make a lot of money and be rich and drink expensive wine and eat expensive meats. And don’t forget dessert and the Mercedes for the wife to keep her quiet and happy.

  7. Jim Dandy

    What are the upside implications of a left translated IC for gold? Does the next IC make greater gains bc it was strong to begin with, or do they make muted gains, bc gold never corrected substantially to reset psychology?

    So far it seems not many people are on board.

    1. Jim Dandy

      To clarify, I meant a left translated IC that didn´t test the trendline, as it´s not very common?

    2. Gary Post author

      I don’t think there are any implications for the new cycle. They all start and proceed at their own pace.

      This one should be driven by the dollar breaking down out of the megaphone pattern and confirming a new bear market.

  8. Steffmeister

    You are wrong guys, my computer says NO!

    Gold is still in a bear 🙂 a nice rally from here yes, but it will be shortlived imo.

    A STORM is coming and it will drag down Gold as well.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      What do you mean your computer says No? Haha, is your computer an AI?

      No but seriously, what is your target for gold and silver, timeframe, entry and exit points?

      Also, what are you basing your prediction off of in regards to Technical analysis? Basically, why are you saying what you’re saying???

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s too early to tell, but it is very late in the daily cycle. Like I’ve been saying. A bottom either sometime this week or early next week. It’s possible it came on the FOMC statement.

      I’ve been predicting for awhile that the bottom should occur on or within a day or two on either side of the FOMC statement. Maybe it occurred exactly to the day. We’ll need to give it a few days and see if we get some more confirmation.

      But it’s late enough that one could start entering positions. If it didn’t occur today then it shouldn’t be many more days before the final bottom.

      Remember me saying that bloodbath phases usually last 5-7 days once a support zone is broken. It looks like this one took 6 days. 7 for miners.

      1. Jim Dandy

        This certainly hasn´t been a typical ICL, we did go lower but now real washout, then on Fed day we typically get gyrations both directions, like a flush then a rally or vice versa, but today was just up gently all day long and closing at the highs. I´m not sure what to make of it, but it sure feels like not many are on board yet. Maybe we have a flush into next week, would be a great buy if it occurs, but that also has me thinking it might not, being too many are waiting to buy.

  9. Surf City

    The USD is heading into its next ICL and could reach 90 sometime in 2018. I was also looking for an ICL in Gold this week as the FMOC has often been a catalyst, just like last year in Dec when the Fed raised rates.

    Gold is in my 5-6 month timing bands to find an Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). Here is a post from this past weekend on 12/10.


    While more evidence is needed to confirm Gold’s 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) is behind us, I did add three Mining stock positions today for a total of 5 positions moving forward.

    Markets love to retest major lows in the form of a “W” where sometime the 2nd low is higher and sometimes a dreaded undercut low.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Nice charts, GDX got down to $21.27 this week, just about where your trendline comes down to. So you are speculating we have another decline at soon to complete a W formation (but with a higher low the second time)?

      I ask because I also was adding miners yesterday, even ahead of the FOMC, as I figured we are close enough that I need to at least start building positions. Normally I would wait, but I have lots to buy if we can know this is an ICL!

      1. Surf City

        Jim Dandy, My expectation is that this was the ICL and any retest will be a secondary low but it is hard to predict. There is also a possibility of another failed DCL into a longer term ICL in the Jan 2018 timeframe but that is not my primary expectation.

  10. Anthonyo

    The US Dollar has been dying of the same wishful heart attack for more than 10 years now by
    anti-US/anti-USD theorists in the west and news channels like RT. And generally, those who have score to settle with USA: all our enemies worldwide.

    The truth is USD is and will be the currency of last resort after Euro and other currencies bites the dust inevitably. The scared international money will seek USD.

    One day USD’s turn to crash will come, too….but that day is far far away.

    Bitcoin has toppled the apple cart of gold worshipers and pie-in-the-sky $11,000 gold snake oil salesmen.
    Gold will never achieve those fantastic heights due to liquidity siphoned out of it big time by Bitcoin and stocks.

    If this by now tired and old USD “impending crash and burn” theory is the only thing Gold fanatics have to hang their hat on for lofty heights for gold, they are all wet.

    1. Surf City

      The BitCoin Cycle is in the process of topping as we speak. While Elliott Waves are not my specialty, it sure like a 5 wave should be topping very soon followed, most likely, by a Yearly Cycle Low for the Cryptos.

      Bookmark this post if you will and call me out if I am wrong but that is the call I am making.

        1. Jim Dandy

          That´s a mere 40% higher from here, and good enough reason to sell for most people taht are accustomed to doubling their money every week in Bitcoin. At least, it´s enough reason not to start get involved here!

          I agree with Surf on this, and think Bitcoin will take a huge breather after we get into the new year. All us idiots that didn´t buy Bitcoin will have a chance to pay only $17,000 for a coin again sometime in the future I´ll wager.

          1. Jim Dandy

            At 25K it´s 40% higher, at 20K, only 17% higher, even more reason to sell. 17% daily returns aren´t enough for most Bitcoiners lately.

    1. RTTPD

      ” For those interested, Cliven Maund calling a Bitcoin top. Could be, I don´t know, but it would seem a wise move if some of the recent bitcoin billionaires on this site like Americano cashed out some profits, even better if they bought miners yesterday morning.”

      Some are selling – but they’re selling to re-purchase other cryptos that exhibit even more volatility than bitcoin.

      Bob Moriarty who is super honest, non- politically correct, sharp investor, gave a great interview the other day where he used logic in the form of history continually repeating itself, and broke down the mass mind/ herd behavior/mania

      This millennials in the comments section just bashed the
      hell out of him as dumb old man that ” doesn’t get it ”


      1. Jim Dandy

        Yeah, I saw that yesterday. There were some ridiculous things being said, though Bob won the argument in my opinion. Even the interviewer couldn´t hear what he was saying, just kept saying ¨but…but how about this…but this is diffferent¨type statements. Why have the guy on if you can´t just interview him and think about what he says?

        Very telling that we are close to a top, the way he was abused by people that can´t even admit it COULD possibly be a bubble as it has gone vertical.

        1. RTTPD

          Most of the people in the comments section have probably been on this planet less than 30 years.

          Some of them may well be very intelligent – but likely none have an inkling of wisdom when compared to Bob.

  11. Clarence

    After selling at the top in spring, and sitting in cash ever since, I’m all in as of early yesterday.

    1. Nada

      Nice play Clarence. If one can control FOMO, the metals are an absolute pleasure for your portfolio. The advancing phase of the IC can reap huge returns. After a few years of metal exposures I am convinced that 2 trades a year in PMs is all one needs. The declining phase can be an absolute horror long or short. The recent sideways consolidation in the declining phase of the past IC was brutal.

      The trick is controlling those emotions and being able to sit on the sidelines. FOMO is a hell of a drug.

      1. Clarence

        Sorry, still groggy, FOMO ?

        Yes, it was absolute murder sitting on the sidelines. I had looked at Crypto’s, as well as SM, but didn’t want to get greedy and risk taking a dive right when I needed the hammer. Gary has spoken often of greed lately, and for myself I completely agree. I was probably a bit too tentative this past year.

        But you are absolutely correct. If you can play an ICL and DCL every year, you should be set.

        Gary called the top perfectly and I suspect (hope) he also called the bottom near perfectly.

  12. Nada

    Still no mustang sally? As predicted, once the ICL was hammered out, shorting sally would run and hide – just like she did at the last ICL. There is nothing wrong with making a bad call, I personally make plenty. The absolute conviction behind their ideas and when said idea turns out wrong, the running and hiding shows their true character. They would rather disappear than admit failure.

    Not sure why? It’s easy enough to say, hey look I was wrong. I made a bad call – especially on an internet forum. My god, the egos are truly magnificent in some.

  13. Nada

    Draghi on deck. As usual this man drains the market of liquidity. BOE stands pat, as they have shown over and over they have no balls to hike.

  14. mustang sally

    Good morning all: Not sure why you are so giddy Nadia, nothing in my books is broke , hgd stopped right on 10 and gold is not over 1260. In my previous post 1214 is a marker and one to watch.

    As they say hold your horses

    Mustang Sally

    1. Nada

      Lol, I knew if poked enough i might get you to bite. Morning mustang sally, let’s give it a few weeks and revisit. I am hoping to alleviate some of that retirement community boredom for you.

    2. LeilaniFarms

      Morning Mustang Sally,

      Curious, at what point (assuming gold keeps moving up) would you cut your losses and switch your view from Bearish to Bullish?

      Also, very important to know, what time frame do you use for your trades? D1? H1? M30?

    3. LeilaniFarms

      Curious, why 1260 for Gold?

      As far as I can tell on the Daily chart, 1260 is lower than even the 20 EMA! Price has stretched itself quite aways from even the 20 EMA, of course it is going to move back up to touch that area just on the retrace alone.

      Don’t see how that is Bullish though…

      This is not only directed at you MS but I wish people would support their calls using charts to back them up along with what type of time frame they are using (M1, M5, M30, H1, H4, D1, etc.)

      1. mustang sally

        Mr Farms: Here are my markers which have been posted here for a while. 10 hgd.to, dust 29.50 gold 1260 and usd 93.60. Plot them on a your charts . These markers are all based on multiple long terrm trend lines drawn by a computer, the more hits then they become markers.


      2. Nada

        Mustang Sally has never shared a chart, that adds accountability and instead she likes obscurity – Mabel marker anyone?

        1. mustang sally

          Why would I Nadia, when you have shown you have great charting skils, put then on your chart and post it.


  15. LeilaniFarms

    There are only a few types of Candles / Patterns I look for using mainly the Monthly & Weekly charts at areas of support / resistance to try and spot reversal areas.

    One being an Engulfing Candle on the Weekly time frame. Pull up the top 10 holdings for GDX & GDXJ and load the Weekly charts.

    Yea yea I know the week is not over yet as we have 2 more trading sessions to go but keep an eye on the Weekly close for the miners. I am already seeing many of them with Bullish Engulfing Candles on the W timeframe. More confirmation that this is the start of a new uptrend.

  16. Goild

    Good trading day to all,

    Let us make money today.
    There might be a bit of a retracement, but not deep. The bread is still hot.

  17. mustang sally

    To help feed the fodder, my next marker for $usd is around 97,27 and no Mr. Farmer gold will not going up with it.

    Shortin Sally

    1. LeilaniFarms

      Yikes! That is a bold call considering yesterday’s move down on USD…

      I feel like a nag repeating this over and over but care to back up your calls with charts / analysis to support it?

      1. mustang sally

        Mr. Farms. I posted on your previous message, Don’t think the markers have to hold exactly, if you want to call them pivots then do say, price will move around them, Right now they are all in play

        Shortin Sally

  18. Goild

    Chrisitan was talking about an upside down H&S for USD to support his view that it was going up.
    Now we have an upright H&S in USD suggesting USD is going down.

  19. ocram

    This comment could go down in history books either if it turns out to be true or if it will mark the end of the bitcoin bubble:

    John McAfee :

    “Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm,Gold is laughable compared to cryptocurrencies. How do you fractionalize gold? How do you ship it? It’s physical so how do you safely store it. It was good for people 3,000 years ago. Today it is inherently worthless. Soon it will drop in value as crypto currencies climb.”

    1. LeilaniFarms

      Bubbles are a result of human emotions namely Fear and Greed. Human nature will never change.

      John McAfee is heavily invested in BitCoin so this is simply a marketing ploy on his behalf, or he is just delusional.

      Anybody investing in Precious Metals and/or Miners for the long-term should take note as to what is happening around us right now in BitCoin. I’m not saying it’s a Bubble, however, look at how it is in every major news headline, it is all over social media, everybody is talking about how they are going to get rich.

      Folks, this is the type of thing to watch for in another 3-4 years or so with Gold / Silver. When you see this happening with precious metals it may be a good time to get out.

      My Exit Plan for Gold & Silver: Once I see the same type of mania for precious metals that I now see for BitCoin, that is when I will sell.

      1. mharris240

        Absolutely right LeilaniFarms… Saw this same mentality in 1999-2000 with stories about taxi drivers giving tech stock advice and day traders quitting their jobs to trade tech stocks during the Dot.com bubble. Saw it again in 2006-2008 with everyday folks quitting their jobs to flip houses; and I’m seeing it again with Bitcoin, this time with pole dancing strippers recommending Bitcoin!


        When does this ever end? It never does when bubbles are blown. We’ll see the same mentality at the top of the forthcoming run up in gold when it goes into its bubble phase too, whenever that may occur.

    2. lobster

      “What he’s basically saying in those comments is “This time is different.” He’s wrong, it’s NEVER different this time. You can’t change human behavior. Period. End of story.”

  20. primetime

    One up day in the pm complex and JNUG and spot metals getting a haircut like usual. Gonna be awhile for anything good or sustained.

      1. primetime

        Bear Flag Nada. You know there is no money or action in this archaic stuff called gold…it is for old, crabby men.

    1. Gary Post author

      Like I said, the metals don’t come out of ICL’s the same way stocks do. Often they will churn for a week or more before getting any upside traction.

      This may just be the banksters holding the market down so they can build full positions.

      The metals aren’t an easy market to trade. They are heavily manipulated and quite volatile.

      The easy money continues to be in the stock market and I think one will be better off having most of their capital there. Maybe 10-20% of ones portfolio you can fight with the metals.

      1. Hali

        So there really was no bloodbath phase to metals and miners as gold seems to have bottomed in the 1240s as many on social media had predicted regardless of whether they used cycles, EX, other TA. Seems pretty tame the ride down if it has bottomed in the 1240s gold.

        1. Gary Post author

          Definitely a bloodbath phase in the miners as they came within a few percent of testing the July low. Sentiment in gold reached about 35% bulls which is pretty excessive. I would prefer to see 30% or lower but often in a bull market icl’s won’t reach that level.

          I would suggest traders not make the mistake of assuming that gold will behave the same in a bull market as it did in the bear market.

  21. LeilaniFarms

    Mustang Sally, what are these “markers” you keep talking about. You can’t ask us to “plot charts” with numbers you spit out and assume we know what indicator(s) you are using.

    There are hundreds if not thousands of chart patterns and indicators, I’m simply asking what you are basing your “markers” off of?

    And no, I don’t read minds so you a little clarity (and maybe a chart) would help. lol SMH…

  22. mustang sally

    Mr. Farm: All I can tell you they are computer generated, my young nephew who is a computer geek. mapped all these charts, I see 29.50 is back in play. I am an old chartist so we combined our talents, and now we play online bingo at Gary;s

    Shortin Sally

  23. mustang sally

    Mr. Farm. Forgot to add, you are right that there millions of line permutations, that is why charting is a hit and miss, but if you have a computer program which can mark all lines , you will establish markers which have the highest frequency of hits by lines, thus the markers. Hope this helps


    1. LeilaniFarms

      I see. Kinda makes sense. However, still no real insight as to what you are looking for on your charts, oh well.

      I also had a programmer (from India) code me my own EA for the MT4 platform. The following is a type of trade strategy that I had him code the EA around.

      This is a Trend Strategy which uses a part of the “Third Screen Strategy” of Dr. Alexander Elder. First, I find in a D1 chart the global trend using the MACD indicator. Once the overall trend is clear, I use the H1 time frame to act in the same trend using the Williams Percentage Indicator. When the positions are opened I manage economic news and fundamental analysis to close the position if I think the trend is about to reverse on the D1 chart.

      The above mentioned Trend Strategy is used in confluence with Price Action Support Resistance (PASR). Major areas of Support and Resistance are found using the Weekly and Monthly charts. It is important to observe Price Action (candle formation) at these significant S&R levels before placing a trade.

      See the two paragraphs above, this is what I was hoping for from you. A little explanation as to what type of trader you are and what kind of strategy you use.

      IMPORTANT: I am NOT using this trade strategy at the moment, it was simply an example of a “trade strategy definition” which I was looking for from Mustang Sally. That’s it.

      1. mustang sally

        Dr. Farm: There is no use of indicators what so ever, that is the noise. It is a graghic program, in simple terms I call it pick up sticks, Once the lines are complete, it identifies the high frequency markers, voila the mable markers. My nephew is a genius at computer programing, self taught like the best of them. not polluted by school propaganda.

        Shortin Sally

  24. primetime

    Looks like the miners/metals need another couple hundred legs down to complete their bullish setup! We are still too bullish, single digit silver and gold under a $1000 will complete the setup. The dollar is also looking strong.

      1. mustang sally

        Mr. Farms. The next resistance for gold is around 1170. after that it is a freefall to 1000. and of course it will stop there


        1. LeilaniFarms

          I’m sure you meant to say Support, but even if you did, you are still wrong.

          So much support at 1220 down to 1200, not to mention a weekly upward Trendline sitting there at about 1210 as well.

          If/When those areas are broken THEN (and only then) can people start calling next areas of support at roughly 1178.

          Until then, it is so far fetched to be making calls like that, it is almost absurd.

  25. mustang sally

    I see in dust right now they are lining up like soldiers ready to blow 29,50 a coincidence no, its a marker.


  26. mustang sally

    Tell me Mr. Farm, why such a dis believer, pull up a dust 5 min chart and tell me if 29.50 is relevent. This marker was identified a while ago, check the achives if you need,

    1. LeilaniFarms

      I am not a “disbeliever” as you put it. I look at larger time frames first (monthly and weekly) then drop down to Daily and it is clear to me that we are in a bull market since early 2016.

      I don’t think any type of “technical analysis” of ANY sort does any good on these 3x leveraged funds. You MUST analyze the ETF they are tracking along with the precious metals themselves.

      If you are basing your trades off of charting JNUG or DUST or NUGT then I can see how your theories and trades would be flawed. No offense…

    2. LeilaniFarms

      On top of that, a 5 min chart? Really?

      My trades are never based off of such a low time frame. Candles, price action, indicators, patterns, markers, whatever, they mean nothing in the long-term on a 5 min chart.

      Only time I pull up a 5 min time frame is before and after major news events just to see the heavy volume, it’s exciting to me. lol

      1. mustang sally

        So Mr. Farm: You seem to be very big of yourself, are you in the online bingo contest,? If not then I will not bother conversing with you anymore.

        Shortin Sally

        1. LeilaniFarms

          Not full of myself, just confident in my trades and technical analysis. I have been clear on my trades, posted charts to support my trades, and would expect the same from others making bold calls.

          If I come across as arrogant I apologize, but this is not my first rodeo and have never been fond of people making calls with nothing to back them up. Talk is cheap.

          1. mustang sally

            So with all of your confidence are you in the online bingo contest, a simple yes or no will suffice.


    1. Nada

      Yeah as I said earlier, gold looks to be building her flag. Nice reference on the fib retracement. The dollar broke above the 10ema, but the close is what matters. I would like to see two closes below the 10ema to confirm the swing high.

      1. Herman

        minus the 0 of course. I find it amazing how accurate these levels can be calculated, and are more often than not observed.

        1. Nada

          Yeah the .786 retracement of the entire IC was the sweet spot for the bounce. Now we wait for confirmation.

  27. ocram

    Another bitcoin comment from John McAfee:

    ” I now predict Bitcoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my dick if wrong.”

    1. Nada

      Interesting guy, but I am not sure where he pulled that number from. This is going to be one interesting story.

        1. Nada

          Watched a dateline episode on him a few years ago. He was suspected of murdering his neighbor over a feud regarding John’s dogs. The dogs ended up dead – the story is they were a nuisance and murdered neighbor poisoned them.

          John claimed corruption by the local authorities and somehow escape any prosecution from what I recall. I guess he ran out of money and in the last few years has been popping back up. I am sure he is an intelligent guy and understands the technology, but the bitcoin story is something we all must “wait and see”. I am not sure when the availability to trade options on bitcoin will arrive, but that is the only way I would trade this asset. Where I can define my risk.

          What I find interesting is the millennial attitude on gold. For them it appears Jesus has returned in the form of Bitcoin. I am sure it will end well.

  28. allthatglitters

    FInally sold my ERX that I bought @ $24 and change for $31.08 today. So I made about 18% on my JDST sold earlier this week and now about 27% on my ERX.

    Now 100% in cash and ready to put it all into JNUG. Hoping for a slightly better price, but not sure it’s gonna go down too much more.

  29. allthatglitters

    BTW, I believe the rate hike we just saw yesterday is the last one we’ll see for YEARS. A bold call, but I’m making it. Underneath the rhetoric, the Fed has no desire to raise rates any more, and they’d probably cut them if it wouldn’t be so politically embarrassing to do so (i.e. admitting the failure of their policies). So they’ll continue with the rhetoric and wait for mediocre to bad economic news to allow them to pass on rate hikes, all the while being Lucy with the football saying the next hike is just around the corner.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t know what looks like a failure. The stock market is in one of the greatest bull markets in history. Unemployment is at near record lows, corporate profits are rising as fast as the stock market. The financial sector and the transport’s are following the general market higher. And the economy is humming along at a sustainable rate.

      The only problem I see is that they are probably going to create another series of bubbles and the currency may be in trouble.

  30. mustang sally

    For all those that need a chart , take your 60 min chart 11 months on dust. Draw a line from March peak to 29.50. 29.50 is the line in the sand. Once it goes over again, expect an explosion up, all in unison with the usd. If you think this is a bull in gold think again if this breaks

    Maybe my dear friend Nadia can post it for me.

    Shortin Sally

    1. Nada

      Oh Sally Two Toes needs someone to post a chart for her, no surprises there. You would think someone who is a self proclaimed chartist with a extensive history would be able to rustle one up to illustrate her ideas. But no, we hear nothing but obscurity from this blowhard. Make no mistake, her days are numbered here. As soon as a new daily cycle is confirmed with a break above the decline trend line, her demise will be upon us and she will crawl back under that retirement bridge she calls home.

    1. Nada

      Sally, I think it has been pointed out to you several times in the past, you need to chart the underlying asset vs one the is distorted by decay.

      In regard to your dollar, what you need to be concerned with is the close below the 10ma. That signals the daily cycle is in a decline. I subsequent close below said indicator strengthens the case that a swing high has been struck. If that is not a red flag for you, then maybe look at the weekly. The dollar lost the 10wma and 200wma. These should be warning bells.

    1. Americano

      I did that before lol !
      Latter stages of Gary’s “baby bull”
      March or April 28th 2016. Put my whole 401K in NUGT & made $120K in two days,
      Now I lost $45K or so in Feb of 2017 with the correlation nonsense of JNUG at that time….if you have conviction I think it’s ok.
      That JNUG experience was final frustration & have been Bitcoin since March 2017.

  31. allthatglitters

    haha, good question Goild, I believe it’s going to rise significantly in the months ahead, simple as that

  32. Goild


    But if you are wrong you may loose in a blink 20% of the dough.
    It is wiser to put 50% and test if you are right.
    Better 33% or 25%.
    I am in with 1K JNUG shares. Yes too chicken.

  33. mustang sally

    Here is my corresponding marker for hgd 10.33. so if 29.50 and 10.33 blow together, batten the hatches cowboys and girls that includes you Nadia.

    Shortin Sally

  34. allthatglitters

    sage advice Goild, thank you. Keep in mind I’m not in JNUG yet, hoping for a better price. But I am going all in. I’m a little crazy I guess, and I have a strong stomach for draw downs. Gonna go Dave Kingman on JNUG and either strike out or hit it WAY out of the ballpark 🙂

  35. Goild

    Last week JNUG hit about $12.06.
    Usually before taking off for good JNUG likes to hit the low a second or third time.
    We shall see.

  36. victor

    I’m out of PM two weeks ago (shorting) and all in cannabis stocks now. Even if I would do perfect timing with shorting I would not get the same winning % as in cannabis. I’m really sorry for myself not entering earlier and for you seen struggling with metals. I doubtful we can see 1400$ together with stocks moving so strong. I would suggest you guys do not plan for long time with PM, play with 10sma and you if see RSI overbought – sell.

  37. allthatglitters


    With the economy clipping along so well, how many times do you predict the Fed will raise rates in 2018?

  38. allthatglitters

    Goild, I’m too stubborn and crazy for a stop loss, seriously,

    Rode JDST down from $63 to $41, then up to $75 for a 17% gain. It’s the method that works for me. I believe in my trades and I’m VERY patient. I refuse to let the banksters fleece me by having stops they can run.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      I know right, looking really good. In fact, my only 2 options for this next 6 months were JNUG and AG. In the end I went with JNUG but AG is definitely my favorite silver stock.

      First Majestic is the purest play in silver as far as miners go and run by an excellent CEO.

  39. Nada

    Looks like the dead cat bounce in the dollar is about over. She is now back below the 10ema. A second close below the 10ema will solidify the swing high.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      I am salivating here watching the USD waiting for it to break next areas of support. Should be an exciting next few weeks for anybody long metals and miners.

    1. AT

      Good job Golid!

      I’m waiting patiently … Hope I’ll be back soon to green with my JNUG position, still holding one position at 17 avg and added a few more at 13 avg this week the other day …

  40. Nada

    This is crude chart, but what I am trying to show is the expected move indicator which is derived by the implied volatility of options. If you look back about 2 weeks, it moved out of the expected range – this had not occurred since back in October. Psychology of the tax plan moved the markets well above what the options market priced in, which is rare event.

    If anyone uses tda and is interested, let me know and I will provide the resource link. BTW, you can use this on any asset that has options data.


  41. Goild


    Yes, more relaxed as my wife is writing her Santa Claus wish list and I suspect the bill is not going to be low.

  42. Goild


    I know you are committed and hope you at least get your money back and make big bucks for
    your trouble.

    1. Gary Post author

      There is no way this is a final bull market top. The intermediate cycles are still right translating.

      Like I keep saying: We’re going to see analyst after analyst trying to call tops every other day all the way up.

      I even have my doubts about this being an intermediate cycle top as we are probably going to have a Santa Claus rally before year end.

      That being said it’s late enough in the intermediate cycle that taking down leverage is a prudent decision.

      1. Nada

        LOL. Gary you know I am messing with you. I mentioned over the past few weeks that the expanding expected range and the increased volatility was something we would see a lot more of first. I agree with your IC outlook and its wise to take down leverage. I suspect we see a lot more volatility before a top – we all know topping is a process and bottoming is an event.

  43. Goild


    It seems like it is a good time/spot for a top. Good call.
    UVXY has been flat for the last few days indicating a change.

  44. Nada

    Walking talking Jesus, the USDJPY H&S looking good. I think she drags down the markets and will signals a turn in gold as she rises out of the ashes like a glorious phoenix.

  45. mustang sally

    As we all seem to be giving free advice, if I had any money left in my account I would be buying dust right now with a stop around 26

    Shortin Sally

    1. Nada

      Only a perambear would recommend going into a 3x leveraged asset when the dollar is sounding the alarm bells.

  46. isavage

    December 14, 2017 at 9:23 am – Put my whole 401K in NUGT & made $120K in two days,

    Wow & i thought i like to take some risk- This is out of the park Americano – Congrats for pulling that one off !!
    To contribute to the discussion above about use of stops. i believe after much experience across different markets & brokers that stops will most likely be hunted & hit by market Algo’s or your brokers who will also be front running you or using your position to some advantage across their over all client risk exposure.

    so i use mental stops mostly or very reluctantly if unavoidable. i have lost count of the times to the penny that my stop gets hit & it reverences to go to new hit for example !!

    1. Nada

      Sure they did;

      December 13, 2017 at 5:42 am
      Swing Low on cpi data. Let’s see if she holds after 2pm”

    1. mustang sally

      Let me tell you its Gary;s contest, since you are confident you should enter it today and put all your money in jnug, so everybody knows the real results not made up stuff ,


      1. LeilaniFarms

        Ok, thanks for the info. I think I’ll pass though on playing.

        I already purchased 315 shares of JNUG the other day (12/12) at 12.67 with my own personal account. I posted that info here as well for future reference.

        It may not be much but it was roughly $4k. So I have skin in the game with a rough time frame of 5-6 months. Let’s see what happens. 🙂

    2. Nada

      Gary created a contest a few months ago. Paper account with 100,000 at your disposal. No futures, no options trades. Winner of contest would receive 500 dollars or a lifetime subscription to his paid services.

      I believe the current leader put it all in a penny stock and turned it into a 200% return.

  47. LeilaniFarms

    Actually Gary, if you’re reading this.

    I would like to enter the 100,000 paper trading contest. With JNUG @ 14.01 I would like to place a trade fo the entire amount which gets me 7,137 shares of JNUG @ current market price.

    Anything else required of me?

      1. LeilaniFarms

        Mustange Sally, what’s wrong with a little fun.

        I’m confident with my own money piling into JNUG at this point in time. Why not send Gary an email with the same trade for chance of winning $500? Gary’s the man for even offering this.

        Have fun and enjoy the ride. Oh, and post a chart! LOL 🙂

        1. mustang sally

          Mr. Farm: Yes I agree, I have respect for Gary, he is the only letter writer to put his calls on the line, the rest of them Surf City, are all chicken and would not dare enter.

          Good Luck,

  48. Gary Post author

    You have to email me your trades within a minute of placing them so I can verify. You also must give me the percentage of your portfolio for each trade. I will reply with a confirmation. If you don’t get a confirmation by the end of the day resend in case the trade got lost.

    It’s up to you to get confirmation.

  49. allthatglitters

    smart trade Leilani. I’ll be joining you soon with 100% JNUG if I can get a slight price break in the next few trading days.

  50. roadrunner

    With respect to Gary’s contest, or online bingo, Gary has put himself at a disadvantage, Gary’s trades are based on calls he is making knowing people are putting real cash on the trade, really, who would follow a blogger or advisor who told you to put all your cash in jnug, or Nugt, dust,…etc?

    1. Gary Post author

      Obviously I can’t recommend people go all in on an extremely volatile leveraged fund or 1 tiny penny stock, so the odds of me winning the contest probably aren’t great. But then again people choosing this kind of all or nothing strategy can also bust their portfolio.

      In all likelihood the winner will probably be somebody that got really lucky and took a monster trade in one penny stock that just happened to pay off big. Next year we will remove penny stocks from the contest and take luck more or less out of the equation.

      1. mustang sally

        Gary, why don; t you remove penny stocks right now,. it is not show any trading skills , which is what this is all about .


  51. mustang sally

    Evening All
    I am going to top call with my friend Nadia.

    Awhile ago I mentioned the tsx market, if it goes below 15800. If it can;t get back above we have a top in all indexes, this coincides with the screaming usd.

    1. Gary Post author

      Folks markets don’t top with right translated cycles.

      Like I keep saying, every other day we’re going to see someone try to call a top.

      For a bear market to begin there has to be a catalyst.

      Ignore the people that clearly don’t know what they are doing and just keep buying the dips. When we get a catalyst and when we get a left translated intermediate or yearly cycle then I’ll call a top. Until then you will just keep losing money listening to these people.

      1. mustang sally

        Time will tell Gary, let the cards fall. I think they tried to bust the usd but failed. When something like that happens the reverse is quick

      2. Nada

        Gary, lighten up. I mentioned that i was joking about a top. I knew it would deliver a response within minutes. Every time their is a red candle in the SM, you blow up the blog. Not literally, but eventually btfd stops. Not today. Not tomorrow. But all things come to an end. The bear that comes after will be one for the history books.

        1. Gary Post author

          I was responding to MS.

          Let’s face it all the top callers have been wrong for years. On the other hand the market has done exactly what I said it would do. And the top callers have done exactly what I said they would do.

          The biggest gains come at the very beginning and very end of a bull market.

          We had the largest period of money printing the world has ever seen. It makes sense that it would produce one of the largest bubbles or series of bubbles in history.

          Wait for the bubbles to play out before trying to pick tops.

          1. mustang sally

            Gary, for your subscibers sake I hope your right , your cockiness level is pretty high.

            Just sayin

            Shortin Sally everything

          2. Gary Post author

            We’ve already deleveraged the stock portfolio and locked in huge gains.

            Greed control. I practice what I preach.

            If we get a pullback in January or February I’ll put the leverage back on but for now it’s late enough in the intermediate cycle that it’s prudent to become more cautious.

  52. allthatglitters

    I respectfully disagree with those who want to remove penny stocks from the contest. I dislike when losers (in the literal sense) gripe that a winner got lucky. Bull. Sure, luck is a part of everything in life, but it’s a level playing field and we all have the same potential choices to make. If someone has the insight and guts to put it all into a penny stock and beats the odds and hits big, they deserve credit for it. Same with bitcoin. And buy and hold is a MEGA trading skill far superior to active trading, it is the method of the all time greats who make insane fortunes.

    1. Pennystocks

      You Said it all my friend ! I could not have stated it better myself ! Cheers to that …………………………

    2. Gary Post author

      A collection of 20 penny stocks might be a legitimate strategy but no one is going to put everything into one penny stock and hope it’s going to soar unless they are just gambling… or have inside information.

      1. Gary Post author

        It’s my contest and my money. So I make the rules.

        I don’t deem it fair if someone with inside information can game the contest and win because he has access to information no one else has. I also don’t want the contest to be purely about luck. Otherwise everyone will just go all in on one or two penny stocks and the challenge will just turn into a game of luck. As someone already pointed out it’s not really possible to place these kind of trades in the real world. The size of the trade would move the stock considerably against oneself trying to go all in on a 20 cent stock. And trying to exit would be a nightmare.

        Now if you want to start a penny stock contest and offer your own prize then by all means be my guest.

        1. Gary Post author

          The fact that RLOG immediately collapsed the next day and resumed the downtrend and the leader somehow knew to exit on the day of the spike suggests that there was most likely some kind of insider knowledge on this trade.

          There are several traders that have been performing very well. Should they lose the contest because someone else used insider trading to game the system?

          1. Pennystocks

            RLOG was a hot sector play at the time DCIX ,DRYS and a few other shippers went up tremendously during that same period .Gary you are assuming wrongly . DCIX went from 1.50 to 28.00 in 3 days .Just to give you some perspective.

        2. roadrunner

          for your next contest, perhaps you should have it required that you must be invested in 3 sectors out of a total (?) (you would decide the sectors, ie, metals/miners, healthcare/bio, semi, transports, energy…etc ) and that no more than 30% of the portfolio can used for one sector, or some variation…..

  53. Nada

    The timing band of the IC bothers me a bit. I was expecting late Jan for the ICL and it still has not left my thoughts. The algos sold in miners today, but to be honest the tape has not been very helpful. Yesterday they bought big and we closed red. The amount sold at close was half of what was bought a day before.. but the point is, the algos are still in day trade mode.

    The dollar will have to watched closely over the next few days.

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold is on week 22. That’s right in the middle of a normal intermediate timing band.

      Plus the daily cycle would be on day 47. That’s deep in the timing band for a cycle low.

      The yearly cycle low has come in December for the last 4 years.

      Why do you expect an extreme timing anomaly this time?

      1. Nada

        I don’t find it extreme. I am using the past 4 IC duratuions in my calculations. I will post a chart tomorrow to demonstrate – on mobile.

      1. Nada

        I said the timing band was a concern, not something that has changed my mind. Unlike you Sally, I have no problem admitting when my judgement is skewed. I will also not run away and hide like you have demonstrated. We all saw you, so you might as well own it.

        No, I stand with my gartley chart posted today with price target. I reserve every right to change my mind if data presents itself. I will leave the sinking ships to you.

  54. Rango

    Anyone know some links to what PM stocks Sprott and Rick Rule are buying?
    Takoa De silva had really good picks before he got hired by Sprott Inc. Or does anyone know what they hold that one can back up with some kind of links excluding guessing of course. Thank you in advance.

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