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Today we get the real test. Will Christian’s ego take precedence over his pride? My guess is, yes. Step up young man and claim your prize.
Haaaaaaa yes! I had a feeling my name would pop up on today’s SMT blog post.
To my little enchilada: This was never really about pride or ego, so you can go ahead and keep that juicy little burrito! This was always about providing an Analysis that helps you learn the Market’s mysterious ebb and flow whilst making money.
Gold put up a good fight! I give you that my friend 🙂
Regardless, this will be my first and last post on this blog.. I told Gary in a private email that I would never stop telling the trolls and the parasites that are allowed to berate others on this blog to F* OFF! Sorry but not sorry!
And although Gary got tired of my cursing, he did fail to mention how he has in the past permanently booted people off the blog who dare I say write some not so nice things about him. Unfortunately, I never had that luxury.. A great Analyst nevertheless, but sometimes a bit of a hypocrite also :/
Enough of my blab! This blog has become a much friendlier place since my departure so let’s keep it that way, Lol!
Wishing all of you Goombas a Happy Holiday and a Happy New Year 🙂 I have a feeling it’s gonna be a good one for the Metals next year — get ready!
xoxo
Hope you change your mind Christian. In my opinion, you helped keep the blog interesting to say the least. I understand being upset about getting booted, but I would not let one decision made in haste keep you from returning. Cheers on your win but I miss my friend 🙁
You only had a one week time out.
I’m not going to put up with cursing on here. We can disagree with each other in a civil manner.
As soon as Ped started he also got a one week suspension.
If I can remain civil with as much crap as I take then everyone else can as well.
“If I can remain civil with as much crap as I take then everyone else can as well.”
LOL, good point. I have always thought you have had a very high tolerance, god knows I have tried to push your buttons, but I could never illicit the response I wanted 🙁
Two sad faces in one day, oh my.
The point that I was trying to make Gary, which you clearly missed or chose to ignore (as you do), is that I wouldn’t have to resort to cursing if I could boot people off my blog like you have time and time again my good man..
So do me a favour and don’t lecture me about civility as I’ve also had to put up with plenty of nonsense with the likes of Primetime, Pedestrian and all the other goofs that felt the need to pollute this blog over the years.
Try and recognize the people that add value to your blog next time instead of wasting your breath arguing or trying to persuade people that are never gonna listen to you in the first place 😝
Welcome back Christian !
I don’t see any hypocrisy in Gary giving you and Ped a one week timeout.
It would only be hypocrisy if Gary were throwing curses around himself.
With privilege / responsibility – and vice versa. You are free to boot people off your own blog. This is not your blog.
Please stay Christian. You kept it interesting! Just keep it PG as well, haha!
Christian,
I have a suggestion for you. Make a list of really bad adjectives and next to each map to a comic character, so you can insult them in your own terms. For example goofy translates to stupid/idiot, mini means slut, Mickey means a hypocrite, Elsa means you cold bi??h, and so on…. I am sure you can get creative with that
Well there you have it , all the Mabel Markers have been busted 93.60 usd, 10.00 hgd, 29.50 dust and 1260 gold , as I said back in August these numbers were to watch, If these numbers hold and I would not want to hold anything long..
MS
Mustanger —–
I know I am bit early but I have defied your Mable markers and just purchased 9200 shares of CDE at 6.85
As I have been telling you the markers don’t lie, 93,60 is the demise of gold, the next marker as I have mentioned was 1214, this should prove up next.
Bronco Riding the Bear
Lol, the last time you spoke of 93.60, gold rallied out of ICL and dollar went above 95, while gold went higher. So yeah, that wench lies.
And your point Nada, I fail to understand, did it not come back as I predicted, end of story with you. LOL
MS
Timing is everything sweets. We all know it was bad call, only in your mind you are you a winner 🙂 shorted gold at 1210ish area and rode up to 1360ish, oh Yes that Mabel marker of yours is something. Lol
You are a piece of work , Nada . Waste of my time .
Mustang Sally proceeds to kick the trash can at the nursing home!
Thanks Sally, coming from you.. That makes me smile. Bottom line, don’t think you are going to waltz back in here after a bad call and try to claim you were right all along. That BS doesn’t fly around here toots.
Definitely a very poorly timed trade. I think I would throw out your Mabel markers as mostly useless.
That being said her/his trade is in the green but certainly a long way from the kind of trades needed to win the challenge.
Watch these MA for buy oppertunity! GOLD according my key MA to watch for to asses a buy, first is a good key resistance $1234 but if it does not hold it will go down to £1188 to bounce of the up trend (each year end MA trend line )Gary see it waterfall down to. https://invst.ly/60w7k
Note!!!! at $1234 there are three converging key MA that gold reverse at on the weekly chart!
It also include the down trendline from the 2011 peak with this key MA. My Bet it $ 1234 but if fails considering previous year next stop is 1188. The comex really had to drop billions to move Gold at that Zigzag we just broke from and that could really support it not going to 1188. So my odds are 60/40 to reverse at $1234 (region)
They are going to (or already have been) crash the PM market. Everyone thinks on the snap of a finger it is an easy buy. Whatever! Sure it may spike, but three to four weeks later, everyone will be bailing expecting the next tank job. Gold is DOA. Most of us missed the greatest investment of 10 lifetimes and here we sit getting giddy about a so called bull market that has done nothing for 18 months.
No, Let me correct, it has done something, crashed and burned.
This is the kind of sentiment that tells me the bottom is close.
As you know, I am one of the dumb old turkey PM “gold bugs”. I just sit and wait for miner bankruptcy, my death, or the long shot Bull market to the moon “greatest bull market of a lifetime”. Makes me laugh.
This is a monster basing pattern forming. It’s going to trigger a monster move higher once it’s finished.
Ultimately you are going to be rewarded huge for your patience.
But then no one ever said Old Turkey was easy. It’s how the biggest gains are made, but almost no one has the emotional control to follow it all the way to the end.
JNUG is going to be over $500 (split adjusted) before the gold bull is finished.
If it was easy to spot the beginning of a bubble you would have done it. It’s that simple.
I’m spotting the beginning of the stock market bubble for you. You can either listen this time or you can make the same mistake again.
Thx for the video update but honestly I am doubting it will touch that triangle trendline by next week. That would be too easy. Remember the banksters have been fleecing both long and shorts these past months I doubt they make it eazy
I appreciate that Gary, and to let you know, I was buying the market yesterday as ordered.
My comments are more out of frustration and not directed at your advice. Your calls have been very good, but let’s hit one of these homeruns.
Between the Bitcoin bubble, the SM bubble, and the coming PM bubble, if we hit one of them and bat .333, we should be happy. If we can hit on the two remaining bubbles (?), SM and PM we should be really, really happy.
Absolutely.
I was never going to participate in the bitcoin market as I think it’s a Ponzi scheme, and I don’t buy Ponzi schemes.
But I am willing to participate in a stock bubble and a metals bubble.
we re listening Gary… just fill in the time because ‘ultimately’ is very long..
thanks
JNUG is going to be over $500 (split adjusted) before the gold bull is finished.
Gary…. When…????
I would guess it’s going to take 4-5 years for gold to reach it’s final bubble top.
Lets just worry about getting to $15 first.
Bounce off the trendline here?
https://gyazo.com/d9fa20df566c410c8bab1fb4d7af2ee6
Bloodbath phases have nothing to do with trend lines. They are about creating extreme emotional conditions.
Give it 5-7 days to finish what it needs to do. Today is day 1.
Maybe. Bounce not beyond possibilities here. I agree, wait for at least a swing though.
Futures at the trendline now, lets see if it holds;
https://gyazo.com/f36d6dabb4c08c96fb05aebc91d776e5
Gary, your comment above, I thought you were one that says only the long term matters, but you have to throw in crap about the short term, For me the online bingo results is all that matters, crap posted here is a waste of time. Oh sorry Nada paper trade, you must be in the red, BIO
MS
I thought I was a waste of your time Sally? Yet at every chance you get, you keep saying my name. I think someone might be sweet on me 🙂
Uff da. Gonna hold on to the JDST until next week. As long as gold declines as expected I’ll flip it all into JNUG before the FMOC announcement. Can’t help but think timing will be right for a relief rally when the expected 25 point increase happens with the usual “we’ll do future hikes…..with caution of course” statement.
The semi’s have completed a swing low. I’m going to go out on a limb and say the correction is finished and we’re now starting the final move to test the all time highs at 1362.
After that we’ll probably get a more sustained pullback in January or February before the semi’s are able to breakout above those all time highs.
Likely.
Where is my sarcastic friend Vin now that the semi’s are headed back up just like I warned was going to happen? Probably still worrying about missing the bitcoin bubble, when he should be worrying about not missing the next bubble.
Gary, shouldn’t SOX trade above 1251 and/or 1268 to complete a swing? Thanks in advance.
The low was made yesterday. So to complete a swing price would need to hold above that low and also rise above yesterday’s intraday high. We have done that.
Ok, got it. I was using the day before.
I bought SOXL today.
My guess is he went back under his bridge.
How do you know so much about me? What is going on? Please do tell us more about you. LOL!
On this you are most certainly correct Gary. SOXL is on the verge.
Hi Gary. I missed this post of yours addressed to me.
First, watching bitcoin is a pleasure indeed. Thinking that my Guru missed this great opportunity makes me wonder. But, then as you say everyone is not always right.
But Man! Bitcoin? This is a life time thing. In fact it is a many life times things. How could you have missed it?
As I have said I am a faithful follower of yours, at least for the time being. If I sound not too serious then there may be something to it. Life is too short for me and I am sure that I am not going to get out of it alive. But, Gary I might be funny however I never meant to hurt. If I have. I would like to apologize.
I bought jnug at your advise. And, did horribly. I bought labu at your advise and am still deeply under the water. But, then I bought tqqq at your advise and did well, sold it a bit early. I bought soxl at your advise and did exceptionally well. I also bought and sold hqu (tsx) based on your advise and did pretty well. As a whole, I haven’t made a bundle but haven’t lost either.
Having provided all these details, I want to tell you that I do respect your capabilities. And, I also find you you to be decent human being. I am very fond of money but money is not very important thing in my life. I value some spicy exchanges with you as much as I love making money.
Finally, I don’t believe that anyone can make money for me. It is for me to act on the available information to the best of my ability. If I make money it is mine. If I lose it is mine also. You are in no way responsible for my loss or profit.
On the other hand if you have this board for discussion and you have not blocked me out then I will criticize you when I think that you are wrong. If you are offended let me know and I will stop.
Gold shall not break below 1200 UNLESS the Fed hikes HALF A PERCENT.
We’re getting near selling now… Bitcoin 15,000…time to lighten up.
Bitcoin going up $200 every 5 minutes! Baby Bull just starting to trot.
16,000 now….sell sell sell
MAY TARGET HIT FOR Bitcoin – trying to short GBTC now with IB and no stock available.
DRIVING ME CRAZY !!
Commodity bear market to hit gold.
Gold may retest 1050.
On a secular basis, commodities go through periods of 20-year bear markets on average .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCx1BVKBy9I
Yes, heard this last summer and hate to say I tend to agree. Makes some good points. This age of massive technological disruption tends not to be conducuve to high inflation, commodities and gold. Yes, we’re going to get our bounces in gold , oil , etc. but frustrating. Past time to move on.
Naaaah.
UNLESS the Fed hikes hawkish 0.50%
Gary, the way i see it: YCL for DXY in January, hence YCH for EUR (~1.22) and ICH for JPYusd.
This will cause gold to produce 1-2 more left-translated DCs with YCL below 1211 in early spring, as EUR finds its YCL and DXY its YCH.
..so EUR is in to produce a bull trap in January before falling to YCL at some 1.14 in March.
It can also be that we get an ICL in PM next week (miners are very late in IC and do indicate ICL), in which case miners and gold will move to higher highs in January – and set right-translated YC for miners too – but….very important: YC decline will ensue in January as EUR falls to its YCL (from 1.22 to 1.14) so that gold will fall from some 1400 in January through April below the ICL to be set next week at ~1250.
Alex—-
Your call on Silver the other day was good and I just jumped the gun with some fresh oil profits.
Ok Gary,
Double or nothing on your prediction BTC will fall below 1K by this time next year. You’ll either owe me 2 or zero burritos. LOLOL. 😉
Gary, great video. A lot of good information in it on gold. I, for one, appreciate all that you do!
Think all of the people getting rich off BitCoin while you sit here looking at boring Gold charts.
Afternoon Ted. What is your current position with bitcoin? Cheers
None. Own 30 Dash units. And some BTSC.
Fed is not done raising rate… so nothing to see here
A little cheer for precious metal aficionados – Konwave’s Erich Meier’s keynote talk last week at the Swiss Mining Institute conf in Geneva.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4fYYZ88IGE
Miners have bottomed.
Using trendline from oct low;
https://gyazo.com/bd3a0d61e111b99706facfaf52d63db6
When is JNUG due for another 1 for 4 reverse split? Last fall 23 JNUG will soon be 1100% in the hole.
And Gary, you do take a lot of crap and have thick skin. Much appreciated for you even keel dealing with bunch of guppies and all the whining and crying and critiques! LOL
PS. I have not forgotten about the CONTEST. BUT the odds of turning things around are starting to look very grim. I think I am down about 60%, but like you say, I have not booked the losses yet. Still seeing a potential fast draw down to save me but getting less likely by the week. Have a list of miners for Plan B but remaining patient. I learned it from you. LOL
miners should bounce tomorrow. RSi 5 on GDX very low. usual area for a bounce. Or is it THE low?
If this is anything like the previous year end drops, don’t expect a quick bounce, don’t get snickered into buying at preliminary support.
One Bitcoin can now buy 12.5 ounces of gold, it began the year at 1…!!
Now the Gold superion crew at the BIS would love for that gold to BTC rotation to happen. Maybe part of BTC’s purposes in this world is keeping capital away from real assets and so keep inflation and intrest rates under control. We all know that would mean game over for the system.
So the real question is now looking at that number above is if BTC is 12.5 x over valued to gold. Or more likely gold is 12.5 x under valued to BTC and all deprecating fiat currencys!!
Time to buy gold!?!
I’m continuing to average in here.
If you believe what is being told then it is much more difficult to mine btc than gold. 12m is the upper limit for the btc.
Furthermore there is no comparison between the two yet. btc is abou 300b capitalization. Where as gold exceeds 8t.
Yet it could very well pan out the way you describe if the fed can posses most of the bitcoins and raise the price to a couple of $100k per bitcoin. In today’s world it shouldn’t be that hard to do. Interesting to say the least.
*not 12m, but it is 21m – the limt for bitcoin.
16001.00 https://i.gyazo.com/2bce52abfd72a3f9b33090dcaa4ab1b6.png
Wonder if we can use BTC to pay off the national debt?
jacob2 – Haha maybe the BIG secret is that FED is really satoshi nakamoto !! in that case may be they can pay off the global debt if they keep taking BTC to the stars.
Humm now that’s a good conspiracy theorie 😉
with a capitalization of $300b? Not yet anyway.
Now $16300, may hit 17000 before the end of dinner in 2 hours.
Bitcoin growth:
$0000 – $1000: 1789 days
$11000-$12000: 6 days
$12,000-$13,000: 17 hours
$13,000-$14,000: 4 hours
$14,000-$15,000: 10 hours
$15,000-$16,000: 5 hours
16500.00
Who is buying this?
Indeed.
the smart ones? May be not. They are buying leveraged gold and semis.
Thank you faz for your response.
BTC = 17.5 K
To the moon! Must be nearing a blow off pop top.
? I don’t see any trade above 17k? Are you sure btc at 17.5?
https://coinmarketcap.com/
Thanks. WOW!
Must have been only a couple of trades only because it does not show up on any of the major exchanges. It could very well been an ATM trade. Difficult for me to get all the info.
The last trade is 16,802.47.
But then the info. is so flimsy one never knows what is happening. It just keeps on climbing like there is no tomorrow.
16661 again
Even the Ron Paul followers (a gold bug) would invest a gift of $ 10.000 into bitcoin rather than gold!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U-WMyf-b_E
Libertarians are anti-state, anti-war, and anti-banker. So is BTC. Unlike gold TPTB can’t control it.
BTC shot up to just under $20,000 at around 8:30 am Pacific.
WOW!
Here it is real time.
https://www.gdax.com/trade/BTC-USD
Gravestone doji on the one hour. The site says minor service outage.
Thanks Roy. All my information is updated every 5/15 minutes. This thing can reach another galaxy in 5 minutes. LOL!
Well done Roy even if you only have a small portion of your assets invested in this beauty. And, it doesn’t look like the end yet. I believe it is not even close.
WOW!
Thanks vin.
Gary,
“I would guess it’s going to take 4-5 years for gold to reach it’s final bubble top.”
Gary, you just copied and pasted the same 4-5 years comment you wrote from September, 2016.
GDAX/Coinbase api was intermittent to off today showing pricing feed. Bitstamp was too. Exchanges outside Asia are getting pounded & cannot handle volume. It is going to take a while to cope with demand to get accurate pricing – and pricing is going to be STICKY as it will be a pain in ass to sell.
INteractive Brokers not allowing shorting only Kong’s on their futures. CEO sees it going “well over $100K in next 5 years then crashing to zero”.
This is not as rosy of a picture as tech titan John Mcafee made out.
As hard on myself as I am about my lousy predictions regarding Bitcoin price at certain times – I am VERY glad I don’t have the same consequence as Mr Mcafee if he fails.
https://mobile.twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/887024683379544065?lang=en
There was a beautiful, elegant black bird swimming on the pond near Gary’s house there in Las Vegas. Just to be clear, the black bird had a long, curved neck.
One day, the beautiful black bird came out of the lake and waddled up to Gary’s front porch and knocked on his door.
Gary opened the door and said, “Get out of here, Ponzi!”
Oh Man! I am shocked at your ignorance. Did you know that Charles Ponzi was a white (bird) and not black.
Please educate yourself before talking nonsense.
Understand that Gary is a decent human being. And, I am sure that most on this board respect him even when we differ with him on some issues.
On the other hand you have been nothing but nuisance on this board. Please take this nonsense and use it somewhere, it will help you to be a nicer human.
Forecast in Gold: It will be the end of SMT.
… which is too bad, given that, once he turned around his stock market perma bear calls “2 or 3 years ago”, coupled with the “multiyear” gold bottom 2 years ago, he began a winning streak.
I don’t think I’ve had a losing year in the stock market in … maybe ever.
So I have no idea where you are getting the perma bear nonsense from. Like everyone else I expected the end of QE to be detrimental to stocks and I expected a normal 4 year cycle. It didn’t take me long to figure out that the cycle had evolved into a 7 year cycle though. And the metals portfolio was up 20% when gold bottomed. Not great but pretty damn good for being in a bear market and not shorting (I just find it very difficult to make money on the short side).
Even when you put half your next worth into SLV Leaps back in ’12 and ’13?
It was 6% in SLV Leaps. Yes it turned out to be a total loss, but 6% is recoverable.
You see? This is the kind of nonsense I have to put up with.
No matter how many great calls I make there are a few who’s only goal it is to catch me in a losing trade or a missed opportunity (folks there is always another opportunity in this business. One can miss dozens, or hundreds of them and still make a ton of money).
Again this is why I started the challenge. It’s much easier being a critic than to actually play the game with the rest of us. If you play the game then you will have to own your mistakes like everyone else. Monday morning quarterbacking is much easier.
dboz,
I recall you posted a lot of XAU vs Forex major charts in the past. Other than USD, only 3 made sense to me in terms of patterns and math:
XAUCHF — this might be the most patterned market in the world. Very structured, highly orthodox, and minimum drama. But who can trade it?
XAUEUR — very similar to XAUCHF, on the same wavelength, pattern-wise, and many Forex brokers offer this pair.
XAUJPY — perfectly explains the correlation between gold and JPY that held up thru most of 2017.
So let me point out a really nice one for you that I stumbled on a couple of months ago. Tradingview has 2 very interesting Forex pairs:
XAUWCU: Gold world currency unit
XAGWCU: Silver world currency unit
Even though XAUCHF’s patterns are a little more orthodox, they are still Europe-oriented (in sync with XAUEUR and XAUGBP) — they may be out of step with XAUUSD (like sines and cosines, for math lovers).
XAUWCU displays useful patterns, the math is accurate, and bias towards or against any particular currency is drastically reduced or eliminated.
Gary,
Not being a critic. We all make wrong calls. No big deal.
But when you came out and said that you were a stock market bull 4 years ago (2013), that was not just a wrong call.
You persistently made 3 wrong calls — at least 2012-13, as a bare minimum.
To be clear: You were a serial stock market top caller in 2013 — aka “4 years ago”.
When somebody calls you out on it you call that nonsense?
Gary,
“I don’t think I’ve had a losing year in the stock market in … maybe ever.”
This is red herring if I’ve ever read one!
Of course I believe you did NOT lose money in the stock market in 2013 — you just kept calling a top — perhaps even a dramatic top — and stayed on the sidelines.
No sir, this is about misrepresenting yourself in your marketing materials.
Come Man! I had started to enjoy this board after most who wrote nonsense and abuses took a break. But, you are something elsel. Let it go, man. We have had enough of this.
Come on Man! I had started to enjoy this board after most who wrote nonsense and abuses took a break. But, you are something else! Let it go, man. We have had enough of this.
Again, complete nonsense. Expecting a 4 year cycle low isn’t the same as calling a top. In order to call a top we would need a failed intermediate cycle and we didn’t have one until the 7 YCL in 2016 and as we all know I was one of the few that knew that was not the beginning of a bear market. The cycle was far too left translated to be the start of a bear.
Of course you conveniently choose to ignore that. Why is that? Why is it more important to focus on one missed call or losing trade than 9 winning ones? My calls are made in real time, I’m participating in the challenge along with many others. We are making money, good money. We even managed to make money on the long side during a bear market. How many others can make that statement? I’m doing what people pay me to do. I’m teaching them my trading system, how cycles and sentiment can help them to make money, and we are making money. So in what world am I misrepresenting anything?
To Gary: “Where is my sarcastic friend Vin now that the semi’s …..”
Hi Gary. I missed this post of yours addressed to me.
First, watching bitcoin is a pleasure indeed. Thinking that my Guru missed this great opportunity makes me wonder. But, then as you say everyone is not always right.
But Man! Bitcoin? This is a life time thing. In fact it is a many life times things. How could you have missed it?
As I have said I am a faithful follower of yours, at least for the time being. If I sound not too serious then there may be something to it. Life is too short for me and I am sure that I am not going to get out of it alive. But, Gary I might be funny however I never meant to hurt. If I have. I would like to apologize.
I bought jnug at your advise. And, did horribly. I bought labu at your advise and am still deeply under the water. But, then I bought tqqq at your advise and did well, sold it a bit early. I bought soxl at your advise and did exceptionally well. I also bought and sold hqu (tsx) based on your advise and did pretty well. As a whole, I haven’t made a bundle but haven’t lost either.
Having provided all these details, I want to tell you that I do respect your capabilities. And, I also find you you to be decent human being. I am very fond of money but money is not very important thing in my life. I value some spicy exchanges with you as much as I love making money.
Finally, I don’t believe that anyone can make money for me. It is for me to act on the available information to the best of my ability. If I make money it is mine. If I lose it is mine also. You are in no way responsible for my loss or profit.
On the other hand if you have this board for discussion and you have not blocked me out then I will criticize you when I think that you are wrong. If you are offended let me know and I will stop.
“How could you have missed it?”
That one is easy. I don’t invest in Ponzi schemes. I think bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. Seriously do we really think governments are going to just let any Tom Dick and Harry create their own money out of thin air. I can assure you they won’t allow this to continue much longer. As soon as the bubble pops, people lose everything and start crying to the government to save them, you will see how fast governments put a stop to cyrpto’s.
I’m trying to get people invested in the next bubble. Quit worrying about the bitcoin bubble. It’s already too late. Instead don’t miss the next one.
You bought LABU against my advise. I’ve been saying for at least a year that I’m nervous what Washington might do to the sector during an election year.
I’ve never purchased semi’s. They are too volatile. Sure they can go up big, but as we have seen they can also go down big. I’m more comfortable in something less violent. I only use the semi’s as a barometer. They have been leading the market out of the election. As long as they keep leading then things are good.
Thanks Gary, As I said you are gentleman and you proved it.
Ponzi scheme? Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. What is not a Ponzi scheme? Really. Please do spend some time and try to understand the market of stocks if you really want to know what a Ponzi scheme is.
Let us face it you have missed one of the best opportunity to make money. Excuses cannot change that fact.
I have LABU for a long time, since you said that it will lead the market. I refuse to believe that bios can stay in the dump while rest of the market shoots up. So, you are partially correct. You changed your advise. I decided to ignore the change. I try not to buy/sell too often.
Since you had quoted sox over and over again and said that it will exceed the previous high (yr 2000?), I took it to mean that semis will do well as per your prediction.
And, I sold my positions when you became iffy.
Since then I have gone back in again with options this time but no 3x except for labu and indl. If semis will do well then so will the Indian market. Additionally, India was one of the most badly managed country for the last 70 years. To-day India probably has the best world leader as the PM. So, indl is based on your advise and the economic/political conditions in India.
I am thinking for shorting China. I have also gone into gdx and gdxj with options but no jnug yet. I will buy jnug when I feel more comfortable with gold.
One more thing. I am very suspicious of bitcoin. No one really knows who is really behind it. And, so far no government has gone after it? If it were clearly a Ponzi scheme as you point out with so much certainty, don’t you think someone would have looked into it?
No one ever “looks” at a Ponzi scheme when it’s going up. It’s only after the crash that the scrutiny begins, and if enough people get hurt then the government steps in and bans, or regulates it to death.
Politicians are reactive, never proactive.
It is worth more than $300b????? Isn’t that more than enough to draw attention?
Wow Vin.. you think Modi is the best world leader ?! A guy who recently destroyed his nations currencys stability/credibility (by just invalidating some notes and not allowing sufficient opportunity for people to cash them in first – and worse than that, had been prior to this running a region of india where minorities are basically suffering genocide scale suffering at the hands of his followers ?
Can’t you find even one current world leader that’s better than this ?
faz, please be informed before you comment. Vote bank politics has hurt India even more than the West. Democracy has not been a good thing for India so far but it is changing. Education level in India is better now.
When you say minorities you mean one particular minority which is driven by religious zeal. Unfortunately that particular minority has hurt itself as elsewhere, in India. That is the ONLY minority in India which is poorer than the “majority”. They are extremely poor and the least educated in India. You seem to be an educated person, do your own research instead of following those who have hurt your people, particularly those who pretend to tell you what the God wants.
Again regarding the economic changes. please do some research before repeating the propaganda by those who have enriched themselves by looting the average Indian. Please read IMF and the World Bank reports. It is the fastest growing economy and has surpassed china. Moody has just upgraded it, read why? India is the preferred third world destination of capital.
Is any leader better than Modi in the world today? May be you are right. Probably both Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are superior. But, then they probably would not have succeeded in India, a nation destroyed by foreign rule for about 1500 years. And, those who have hurt Her the most are the ones who criticize Modi the most. They are the only ones in world who have not apologized for their atrocities to their victims. Every other decent nation has. Please read history of India if you are really interested, and I mean the real history and not the propaganda.
My friend choice is ours of what we want this world to be. Before hurting others we should soul search how shall we feel if others act like us? Choice is ours but let me assure you what goes around come around. So, be careful. They also say one can fool some for all the time, all for some time but not all for all the time.
when I say “surpassed china” I mean the RATE and not the absolute numbers. In absolute numbers China is MUCH bigger. They have now been growing at a fast rate for the last two decades while India was being looted with the help of the vote bank which was given the shorter end of the stick.
Regretfully we seem to have different views on what is ‘good’ if you tout modi, trump and netanyahu as exemplars. The size of your blind spot must be pretty huge if you include netanyahu at the same time as berating indian minorities for being ‘religious’ and saying “Before hurting others we should soul search how shall we feel if others act like us? ”
Because netanyahu has been pushing a colonial theft of palestinian land based on an extreme religious and racist foundation – that only jews have rights and everyone else is second class.
Much like the supremacist hindu philosophy that lead to this sort of thing:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1067789/Christians-forced-hide-woods-new-wave-Hindu-violence-sweeps-India.html
I am saddened that someone I perceived as generally gentlemanly based on your comments to Gary could really condone such things. And you tell me I should educate myself…
Of-course everyone else is always wrong be it India, the West, America, Israel or any one else. Unfortunately, it is not just those nation but also Myanmar, Thailand, Russia, Philippine and even China. By playing a victim does not change the facts. If one wants to see it can be seen.
May be the rest of the world is bad but how about, Nigeria, Sudan, Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, pak, Afghanistan, Syria and the list goes on and on. Deception can only go so far. There is a limit to it. The truth cannot be hidden for ever.
It is this attitude of deception that is bringing changes everywhere. If the deception does not stop, changes will keep on occurring. As I said what goes around comes around. Fortunately there are people all over the world who have started to understand this and are working hard to bring changes.
We hope that our value system is not threatened by false propaganda and democratic countries such as India develop with the help of leaders such as Modi, Trump and Netanyahu to make our world a better and safer place.
Is there any limit to propaganda?
You take one report from somewhere and make it look like reality? What happened to Assyrian christian population? What happened to Coptic christians in Egypt? What happened to Greek orthodox in Turkey? Is there anywhere where it did not happen? This is when the West still has the power? Can you imagine what will happen if the West ever declines? To understand that we can read history, the history of Indonesia, pak, bangladesh, sudan, Afghanistan, Ethiopia and others.
Looks like I touched a nerve there, eh Vin ?
of-course you did. It is bad enough that the world has to live with terrorism but it is even more disturbing when hate is openly being propagated against selfless world leaders because they want the world to become a safer place. And, by whom? Stop needs to be put to this. Amen!
Cryptos are where they want to take us Gary – Lynette Zang has convinced me of that. You might want to go to YouTube and search for some of her videos. She’s very knowledgeable and reads a lot including IMF reports etc. where they actually spell out their plans. We are in a “reset” right now but it is like a slow train wreck.
I don’t know, I’ve never seen a bubble yet where even the smartest people didn’t get sucked in. Let’s face it we all have the same emotions no matter how intelligent we are.
Even Isaac Newton lost everything in the South Sea bubble.
Not saying Bitcoin is not in a bubble. I’m saying they want everyone exposed to this technology and embrace it and they will eventually use it.
Bluebell ——
You are on money about Lynette. Surely she is not a genius…..but she’s one of those people who keep reading the fine print long after everyone else gets bored and quits. She is extremely thorough and bulldogish in the quest for answers.
I feel too…..that they absolutely want everyone exposed to the blockchain, even if it not applied to them or they can evade it in the future.
Remember Obama care? It applies to everyone except for them.
Nice post Vin. I like the life attitude.
Thank you, my friend.
Wonder how everyone is doing?
Making money?
It would be interesting to see how gold/miners behave tomorrow.
Came back to take a look.
Am curious Gary’s longer term take on gold. i.e. for the downside, what levels do he need to see gold break below to negate the new bull he says we are in now? Like, breaking below the baby bull low of Nov/Dec 2015? And for the upside, any swing low above last Dec’s (2016) low is a long buy signal? Are we in Cold Turkey area upon that swing low? Time to buy bullion (besides GDX)?
There must be some bitcoin traders here. I haven’t started on this yet. Honestly, it went up so fast I thought there’d be a correction. Btc is legal here in Japan, and Korea’s now on board. The hacking/theft/loss has me very concerned. So an offline cold store wallet solves I take it? Saw that the GBTC ETF has a massive premium, which explains why the daily/hourly chart does not currently look like btc. But, if it ever does, I’d trade GBTC as I prefer to stay in cash so I can buy GDX when ready. I’m also worried about a crash in btc while I’m asleep as it trades 24/7 as we all know. Am babbling on here … leading me to my request to Gary:
Gary: Maybe consider adding a btc trading thing as part of your portfolio – just for speculators who understand it’s a Ponzi scheme and you explain and all. The same as you did for gold and options, I think it was. Put in $1000, make $10K, type thing. Just an idea. Just pure speculation/gambling. < 5% of one's portfolio. Not rent/food money.
I don't know where btc is going, but when it goes UP, the greed in me kicks in.
But, when gold goes up the fear kicks in. Odd.
Gold completed a final bear market bottom back in 2015. It’s been stuck in a basing pattern since the election. I think it will finally breakout of the basing pattern next year and finally start the next phase of the bull and rally above 1400.
Thanks Gary.
Bill in Tokyo,
Nice hearing from you.
I stop by Kobe Misono to enjoy a delicious beef cut.
Gary,
“We are making money… So in what world am I misrepresenting anything?”
My sentiments exactly… same surprise I had a couple of months ago when you were touting yourself as some sort of stock market bull surrounded by permabears “4 years ago” — with all your recent success, why on Earth would you even mention or hint at “4 years ago”??
As you mention, you got on a winning streak about 2 years ago — some time in 2015, give or take. But from the time I subscribed in October, 2012, AT LEAST thru 2013, you were dropping some real stinkers on the SMT, to put it nicely.
But I am not focusing on your mistakes from back then.
I am concerned about your claiming some sort of victory “4 years ago” in your CURRENT marketing materials (this blog), when you should be apologizing your face off!… or simply not bringing up anything close to “4 years ago”.
2013 was a losing year for you — a monster losing year — no problem in and of itself. We all have our losing years.
The problem is in 2017, when you claim 2013 was a victory. You were not a stock market bull surrounded by permabears in 2013.
2013 was not a monster losing year for me. Maybe for you, but I exited metals in January way before the bear had done any serious damage.
vin,
My posts are vin-neutral.
I am not here for your suffering or for your enjoyment.
Page down is awesome!
I use it all the time.
vin,
While paging down, I notice you take up a lot of space on this blog with your posts —
Who knows if I like what you post or not?
I sure don’t — I’m super happy to keep it that way!
Goild,
I noticed a post or two of yours this past weekend and one other time before that asking what people thought gold and GDX would do over the coming week.
The last time I posted a forecast here was at the September peak in gold & GDX — that should have helped with your directional bias in miners. It didn’t seem like you read it, so I stopped posting forecasts. Seems like Christian and Pedestrian have also stopped posting forecasts here.
Correct zkot, I will post one last forecast.
I don’t think he was talking to you, but is laughable that your ego believes he was. Don’t bother with the one last forecast. You already showed your hand;
Steffmeister
November 27, 2017 at 3:42 am
I am in waiting mode for Gary’s call during summer. To touch the bottom of the golden triangle.
It’s laughable that you think that I thought that he was talking to me 😛
I will post my forecast later, it’s a good one.
LOL. Ok, I said don’t bother. But nevermind.. your way is better. I want to write it down so I can use against you later – joking 🙂
Help me I’m born to lose😂 Last year I played NUGT and was up 80%. I took half out at 11.89 and have been a deer in the headlights until now with the other half. I had a stop in at 40 after reading some posts on here but the other guy I follow by newsletter convinced me to hold so I chickened out and removed the stop and now it’s 25 UGGGHHHH. I’m excited to pile back with the other half at the end of the blood bath (fingers crossed) but should I sell the NUGT shares that are still withering down? I’m just shocked that the dollar has fallen so much since the peak of the miners yet they just keep getting pounded.
We’re close as I explained in the video. Probably 3-4 more days of the bloodbath phase then gold should start a new intermediate rally. And I think this will be the rally that finally breaks out of this frustrating basing pattern.
Remember buy when others are panicking. Sell when others are greedy.
We’re starting to see true panic in the metals. We’re seeing a rare level of greed right now in bitcoin, only seen a few times in history. If one was smart they would be selling their bitcoin and buying gold (but wait just a few more days).
agree
Good day!
DId not this ANT say that WEAT was going to hit $6?
Well, this is the time to get into WEAT, provided you have patience.
Zkot.
Participating here at SMT complements the lonely trading activities and provides insights.
There is not point to heat up. Instead let us make virtual friends, have fun, learn and make money.
Good to hear from you!
GDXJ has hit support, GDX still needs a bit more down.
Gary,
“I exited metals in January way before the bear had done any serious damage.”
You certainly did… and you were back in after that. How about round the equinoxes?
… of course none of that matters. After all, it’s not what we’re talking about.
And it’s not about me, either.
Last forecast:
Gold is in an ABC pattern.
A: 2011-2015
B: 2016- ?? Somewhere in 2021-22 time frame as a general idea.
C: mid to late 2020s, $650-800 area.
Don’t try to call cycles that you can’t see. Stick to “Intermediate”, “daily”, and “half” cycles in your forecasting. Report the larger ones after the fact, so as to aid in your work with those 3 cycles that are in your wheel house. I wouldn’t mess with the yearly forecast too far in advance, either. Your skill set allows you to successfully trade the 3 I’ve identified, but you do not have the math and science background required to project larger term cycles. You do not think mathematically or scientifically.
Trading has nothing to do with math. If it did the Nobel laureates at LTCM never would have crashed and almost brought down the global financial system. Trading is about fundamentals in the long term and emotions in the short term.
And yes I traded the intermediate cycles after 2013, that how we were up 20% at the bear market bottom in 2015.
zkotpen, why your last forecast? This is not directed towards you, so please ignore – WTH is going on here? Has their been an evolution in egos? They seem quite inflated as of late. Now folks saying, I am taking my ball and going home.
UVXY at $12.55 as low as it has been.
Today being a pay day the SM might push higher. In the next few days it might do a double top, perhaps a bit more, to then sink definitely for a good while, I think 🙂
Let us time getting into UVXY!
I would wait until the end of the month. The NDX is only on day 2 of a new daily cycle. The time to bet against it is around day 20-30.
One has to time VIX trades almost perfectly to make money. They have severe decay.
Got 334 UVXY shares at $12.56.
Thank you Gary, you are right in the timing.
Timing is one of the difficult skills to master in trading.
Goild – you & UVXY !! whats wrong with you Hahah – sure i’m still shorting it as well as other VIX instruments. but hedged out with XIV.
good luck 😉
Goild – Would like to know your strategy if you would like to share. Swing or scalp etc..
Isavage,
The reasoning to get into UVXY was to be in, to have a reminder that a good deal might be coming soon and to not miss it. Admittedly it is early into the game. So I might get out at the first opportunity.
So far, gold likes the trendline I posted yesterday afternoon;
https://gyazo.com/50b26b48e85cfca2ac666c8f9367ae6b
Nada, that is wonderful information, tell us what you do with this line, are you selling or buying, that to me is more useful information.
MS
I don’t provide investment advice. I post what I see on the charts. Obviously, I am suggesting that this looks like a good spot for a bounce. How big of a bounce and will it hold? Only the gold gods know Sally.
Gold is definitely getting close. I don’t know that I would try to call the bottom just yet though.
Here we must have it clear that there is no V reversal in GOLD and the miners.
There must be an undercut below GDX support. Before it would go up it needs to hit the lowest point of this downtrend at least a second time. So a bit of sideways motion in a tight channel before it drops at FOMC.
Sold the UVXY for a loss of $20.
Maybe. Maybe not. Gold does not typically rocket out of the ICL like the SM does (v bottom). Typically it is a small bounce that continues to build and then everyone finally recognizes and jumps on. Take the ICL in July for example;
Gary was the first to call the ICL, while everyone else was expecting gold to turn back over (including Mustang Sally and myself). Instead it was the ICL and it turned into a monster that surprised to the upside on every bearish gold data.
Gary you have spoton on your stock market calls. Do you see NASDAQ 7000 before year end?
At least that, maybe more.
All I want for Christmas is Nasdaq 12,000….by July 🙂
of 2018, that is LOL
Gold: Dec 5 ICL max 1 week variance – Dec12 high likely but with concentrated evil, er, positions allowed it could flip polarity. holding small % of remaining /si puts ‘just in case’, added Jan gdx eq. calls. Dec 28 looks H to me, perhaps a year-end squeeze?
1242 is a primary driving price imo – if it holds it’s weeee time imo.
good luck.
Perhaps the miners just hit the upper descending trend line and will sink by the end of day.
I have 3K JNUG shares, at a current loss of $10K since Monday.
My 1500 GDX shares are also loosing from $23.1
Smile, better days will come up soon 🙂
It is likely that I will switch the 3K JNUG shares to 1.5K NUGT shares.
NUGT I think is safer for longer holds.
There is a timeline coming in on Monday but it’s for silver not gold. I think the low for gold is 2weeks later, winter solstice like last year.
but you never know for sure …
That’s it? That’s your forecast? Reminded me of.. Please tell me that you have something more, Lieutenant. These two Marines are on trial for their lives. Please tell me their lawyer hasn’t pinned their hopes to a phone bill.
A Few Good Men. Classic.
yepp nada my man thats it, wow I never dissapoint do I ….
Got back the 334 UVXY shares at $12.27.
Interesting JNUG getting ahead of NUGT.
Hmmmm….am I crazy or does today not really feel like “Day 2” of a bloodbath for gold? Not feeling much panic out there today. Is there no chance yesterday was the end of the slaughter? Just asking.
could be. we are talking about gold/PM’s. Anything possible. Of the capital I plan on committing to PM’s I put 5% in GLD march calls and 5 % in GDX march calls yesterday near the close. We will see how next week plays out. just wanted to have a tiny position in case this is the bottom but lots of cash left to deploy if not.
Thank you Gary, for everything you put up with around here. You’re a very patient and tolerant man!
I totally agree.
Having failed to decisively retake the 1300 dollar level back on November 29th there is no longer any reasonable prospect that gold will meet or exceed it’s September highs. The decline we are seeing now has momentum and so the downside targets must be considered as the only other rational outcome as gold cycles its way back to very unhappy lows. These are not pretty targets either and the sounds of gold getting its teeth smashed soundly into solid pavement are growing louder as each day passes and this rag doll gets beaten to a bloody pulp in the speculative metals playground. My target for gold is to find a bottom near the depressing low of 1099 but the forecast for GLD is much worse as I now see it breaking below its December 2016 lows to a new bottom at 104. and change. Precious metals stocks are going to be blasted to smithereens during this declining phase and no doubt many people will lose hope although its interesting that COT spec longs have again increased in the last period despite golds poor showing. No doubt buyers are trying to enter too early in anticipation of a bounce they seem sure is coming during December that might rhyme with the advances we saw during late 2016. Alas they are going to have their sorry arses handed to them on steaming platters as gold defies expectations and drags out its declines into the New Year having closed 2017 near that forsaken 1200 number we have been tortured with since all the way back in 2013! This is not the time to be buying if you are looking at the horizon though other than short terms bounces as the trend looks set to take us to a price region few imagined was still possible. By the time this is all over the two price peaks encompassing 2016 and 2017 will indeed look like the great, big, fat double top I insisted was being formed all along. What I never imagined was that it would take this long for the second to be fully formed. Be that as it may, should this forecast prove more accurate than my view gold would challenge 1362 again then we had best be ready to buy with both hands at the coming bottom since it will be a very bitter end for those holding through the coming down draft. I believe the bounce next year will be memorable and may run for all of 2018 and even into the next year. We can only wait and see (and count the knocked out gold teeth along the way)
Welcome back! You were missed.
And, thanks for your comments. My feelings about gold are very similar. Yet I have no feel for timing. What is the basis for:
“I believe the bounce next year will be memorable and may run for all of 2018 and even into the next year. We can only wait and see (and count the knocked out gold teeth along the way)”?
Ped,
You’re record on metals has been pretty atrocious. My prediction is you are going to be wrong again. Gold should find a final YCL within the next 3-7 days. Probably on, or right after the next rate hike which I think will turn the dollar back down and start the bear market in earnest by breaking down out of the megaphone top.
You see the mote in my eye but don’t notice the log in your own (Matthew 7:3-5).
Your own record has typically barely beaten 50/50 other than a recent lucky streak which is little more than a transparent copy of Armstrongs work on trading vertical markets. So don’t think you can elevate yourself by knocking me down in your usual critical way. You were dead wrong about copper as one example which I was warning for several months would hit a top (and it did).
No matter, nobody is right all the time just as nobody is forever wrong. You are welcome to post any alternative bottom call you like and we will just wait and see which one of us is closer. Just don’t pat yourself on the back if a little bounce comes along since it won’t last. My long term scenario for gold was that it would head right back to the basement and prove your “Baby Bull” thesis was just a bunch of HUI all along.
So far I am more right than you on that score.
There’s nothing wrong with copper that I can see. It’s still holding well above a flattening 200 WMA. Usually that’s a sign that a new bull market is beginning.
Gold is also holding well above the bear market lows of 2015 and above a flat 200 WMA.
Unless we start seeing lower YCL’s then you are just flat out wrong on gold.
Love it. First day back and Ped is welcomed with a kick in the teeth from Gary. Finally, I was getting tired of creating all the drama 🙂
Heck I’ve been arguing with Ped about gold for two years. He’s been wrong all that time…and he’ll continue to be wrong because he has a perma bear bias when it comes to gold so he can’t see the turn is happening.
It’s interesting. We can add mustang Sally to that list. She shows back up right , being most bearish, right as gold is about to turn out of its ICL. Remember, she said below 1200 was in the books.
Welcome back Pedestrian!
Well, after comments above I got rid of 2000 shares of JNUG to only keep 1000 shares.
JNUG seems pretty happy about something this afternoon
GDXJ’s weekly chart candle for this week is right at the pivot low of May. If we go below, the triangle will be broken, as we’d be making a lower low. So a reversal next week or so would be perfect.
Gary, what’s gold’s sentiment like on sentimenttrader.com? Is that data actually pretty good? How do they calculate it? Just ask a bunch of brokers or something? Would be cool if one could measure when gold bugs are selling their phys bullion – when they give up that’d probably be close to the bottom.
… and, Gary, which do you value more, sentiment, or cycles? Or do you have to use them together?
Less is more.
“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” – Albert Einstein … love it
I use both.
JNUG +4.07% so far today
NUGT +1.58%
They will equalize on Monday.
Which way?
JNUG to lower, I think.
another good quote
“All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” ―Gandalf, J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring
Says the guy in a 9-hour movie! :p
reading the book took longer …. weeks … but I’ve read it every 10 yrs or so anyways … love it … imagine writing it all by hand w/no computer, just a typewriter
RTTPD, sorry for my delay! I just saw your coment!
Maybe we bought at the same time 🙂 I also bought silver yesterday at 15.73 once I saw USDJPY getting exhausted.
Watch out on OIL !!! OIL IS WORTH SHORTING NOW!
Oil and CRB are in IC decline through the end of January!
short Crude from 57.35 now to ~50 and then going long from arround 50 to 80 in 2019 are moves to bring in a lot of money ;), RTTPD
Alex —–
I dumped my oil stocks about a week ago after holding since late June.
I just bought more silver and a little gold today.
I am willing to hold longer than most.
Again —- good call!
I did sell the 334 UVXY shares to recover the $20 bucks I had lost.
But now UVXY is at $12.16 so I got back the $334 shares for a good surprise on Monday, I think.
Have a nice weekend!
Looks like USLV and JNUG both had swing lows today.
Bouncing into the Fed meeting and getting slammed down or is THIS THE LOW? It’s in Gary’s timing band for a low….
Not nearly enough volume in either JNUG or NUGT to warrant a bottom call yet. ICL’s almost always print a massive volume up or down day, or both at ICL bottoms. It’s a sign of capitulation as dumb money panics and hands their shares over to smart money right at the bottom.
It’s usually about the time we start seeing calls for sub $1000 here on the blog from frustrated gold bugs and perma bears.
Gary – the vol at the Dec low last year on JNUG ($190million) wasn’t actually very much higher than yesterday’s low at $120million.
Compare the selling volume (to the moving average) and buying volume for both JNUG and NUGT at last years YCL and see if today looks similar.
I suspect we still have a few more days yet before we get the kind of panic that will generate a major bottom.
dust getting close to breaking down? Early movers: ego,gss, agi, hl,etc.
EGO is the only chart that looks like it’s on the way to bottoming to me….others are the opposite of what they were last year around this time.
Gold chart and trg. Disclosure short form $1280…G/L Taco Screenshot 2017-12-08 14.42.36.png
Regarding Gold, you are just as wrong as Ped Gary, you said that gold would touch the lower part of the triangle in August, has not happened yet. Then you said that gold would bottom mid Nov early Dec=Wrong
Baby bull=Wrong
We are in a bull in Gold=Wrong
I am the only one here with the skills to predict golds behavior, short, mid and long term 😛 zkot, ped, sally,nada, gary
forgetaboutit!
Now gary has copied my forecast of a gold low at winter solstice, adjusting his calls once again …
I can only conclude that your greatness is only exceeded by your modesty. O
So what is your prognosis? Will the patient recover or stay in there forever?
Lol, I love this guys ego.
The interest rate hike is expected to be 25 points. Perhaps to 50 points,
What about an unlikely surprise of 100 points?
OK Steff,
Please tell me where when to jump into JUNG and some kind of a target price to exit.
I would be appreciate it!
No you misunderstood the purpose of my post. I’ve already answered you once in this thread, the info is still valid.
I will post my forecast this weekend.
Short term=For the rest of the year
Mid term=What would happen in 2018.
Long term=When will the bear in Gold end?
I’m looking forward to it! I pretty much agree with your outlook on gold. Like you, I still think gold is in a secular bear market, and your dates of 11/2018 to 2/2019 I think are going to be pretty accurate for the gold bear market to end. The outlook in gold is still pretty ugly. Excuse the oxymoron. 😎
Well thank you SLEP, at least one person who pays attention.
The big selloff in gold on Thurs did not have as big an effect on miners. Miners may be signalling not much downside left. I doubt we will see 1205, gold could bottom around the 1220 region.
I agree miners did look strong today. But, it is only one day. They did the lead gold down. Some kind of confirmation is needed.
TA-wise, GDX’s RSI(14) became oversold yesterday, and today’s uptick was a) on light vol, and b) was a shooting star reversal candle. No one knows the future, but I think Gary’s right that capitulation is next up.
Folks, ignore this nonsense. Gold will bottom exactly when I said it was going to in late November or early December. We have started the bloodbath phase so look for a bottom sometime next week. A likely trigger would be the fomc meeting when the FED is going to raise another 25 basis points.
Another point that needs to be stressed is that gold’s bear market has to end at an eight-year cycle low. The last one occurred in December of 2015. That means the bear Market either had to end at that point or it’s going to run another 8 years and make a lower low in 2023 or 2024. That’s not going to happen though as we clearly already completed the baby bull phase of a new bull market and we are now stuck in a sideways consolidation while the stock market enters its bubble phase. Just like I said gold is waiting for the dollar to break down out of that megaphone topping pattern. Once it does then gold will break out of its basing pattern and will start making higher highs again .
Everything is playing out pretty much exactly as I have anticipated.
Now we’re just waiting to see where the bloodbath phase is going to end at. My guess is it will end at that triangle trend line like I’ve been predicting for several months.
Notice that I also have been predicting a failed daily cycle which has been fulfilled and which Steff warned me I was going to be wrong on.
People like this will always claim an incredible trading record, but they will also never enter the challenge where they will actually have to make real-time calls like the rest of us. Until I start seeing some real time trades this is nothing more than just the usual hot air.
Gary —-
Many of these guys left your blog over a month ago — and it’s both good and very entertaining to see them back. A few them are actually quite funny.
My question is — how and/or why did they all seem to return in the last two days….and all at the same time?
Gary,
I REALLY hope that you will be right.
Anyway you are convinced of this scenario because you don’t think that gold and silver made a secular top in 2011.
You are convinced that in 2011 PM market did not reach a bubble mania phase (silver did not made a new all time high also).
My guess is that there atre 50-50% chances that we made a secular top in 2011.
IF you are right we will experience a monster bull market in PM,if you are wrong PM market will be in trading range for another 10 years at least.
PM could be the best investment of the next few years as well as probably the worst.
At the moment PM are probably the most undervalued and unwanted thing in markets,let’s see what will happen.
Thank you for your blog Gary 🙂
It’s just going to be a slow process in the commodity sector. The three-year cycle is starting to get mature. I cover this in great detail in the weekend report. This is why I keep stressing people to focus their capital in the stock market. It’s where the easy money is going to be made.
Again Gary the trendline is too obvious. I say we bottom at 1220 max.
Gary, so you think we should focus our capital on the SM and not gold? Even with the current lows in gold? Which industries/stocks would you focus on?
I just keep it simple and trade the index ETF’s.
Simpleton says:
FED hikes 25 basis points>>Gold rallies above 1260 then above 1300 short term.
FED hikes 50 basis points>>Gold sinks to bottom in late Dec or in January, 1200 first, then 1175, then 1140, lower?
We already know what the Fed is going to do on Wednesday. They are going to hike 25 points.
The Fed doesn’t lead the market, they follow. When the market prices in a rate hike then the Fed follows.
You can tell what is going to happen weeks or months in advance just by following the odds. The Fed has never raised rates with the odds under 75%. Anything over 75% and it’s a sure thing. There is way too much money on the line in derivative interest rate bets for the Fed to be throwing any surprises at the market.
Gary, yes, that trend line to be shaken but most likely the moment is not to be now but later in spring as gold/miners move to their YCLs.
Thus:
– miners bottomed and about to produce right-translation in their YC,
– gold to 1400,
– and then some time in the winter, they will all fall in their YC decline so that gold will move below the ICL set yesterday or to be set next week and shake that trend line in the process.
…hint about that is given by EUR’s YC: it needs to produce a bull trap before producing a failed IC below the ICL at 1.1555 set in November –> that will coincide with DXY falling after seting its YCH in a very left-translated YC to start in late january.
@steff
“I am the only one here with the skills to predict golds behavior, short, mid and long term 😛 zkot, ped, sally,nada, gary”
Says the guy who needs someone’s else advice to make a trade;
Steffmeister
November 27, 2017 at 3:42 am
I am in waiting mode for Gary’s call during summer. To touch the bottom of the golden triangle.
ever heard of irony sarcasm … but we will get there sooner or later.
I don’t understand why guys spend much precious time to prove something to each other…? Just say your opinion and that it.
This week drop was not due to USD or real yield, it was due to a miners problem.
Does any one have any insights on what is the miners problem?
This likely is not manipulation but shear fundamentals underperformance which can sink gold/miners more deeply.
My solution, enter in the contest and you get to post, but that is not in Gary’s best interest
MS
I don’t mind anyone posting, but those that continue to try to convince us of their trading prowess with hindsight trades just get ignored now.
Anyone who wants to be taken serious has to now play by the same rules as everyone else. Real time trades.
So Gary, who is a regular poster and is not in the online bingo contest.
MS
Gary,
Max keiser is not an idiot and he thinks the next major stop for Bitcoin will be $100.000………
It’s just incredible that for a bitbyte (since there is not even a coin) people is ready to pay insane amount of money…but maybe we are all wrong and the world will change in a way that we can’t even imagine…..
Just think at gold…….it’s at a pathetic 1250 dollar per ounce when one fuckin bit of an immaterial “money” is at 20000 dollars.
In order to restore cerebral sanity gold should reach a MINIMUM of 10000 dollars and bitcoin should fall at $1000….it will never happen!!!!!!!
There is nothing comparable with this…….the dot com bubble was a joke….and even the so called “tulip mania”….here we are experiencing something never happened before.
I can’t still understand how to call it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPwWscfCJbE
I think I would disagree with your opinion of Max 🙂
🙂
Yes its always something that never happened before and is different this time? That should be your giveaway and yet you are using it as your argument. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value . It is a way to transfer currency. It’s like saying your check is worth 20,000.00 before you even print its value get a grip please. You can make money but you can also get burned to a crisp in one day. Its worth nothing and eventually it will move back to that reality. It may go to $100,00 which I doubt but will you sell ther or anyone else. No. You are sucked up in trying to be right. Anybody who is projecting prices knows nothing ans are talking out their ass. Pray that anyone who is in takes a profit but just mentioning prices ike $100,000 is in my opinion highly suspect and irresponsible. Good luck with your delusion.
Hey everybody,
I’ve followed this site every now and then for the past year or so but have never chimed in. I am not one to really “follow” anybody else’s trading advice as I like to base most of my personal live trades using my own statistical analysis. With that being said, I am a nobody, I enjoy following financial markets and have done so for about a decade now. Was a full-time trader (FOREX) from 2011-2013 and now am a medical cannabis producer in the State of Oregon.
First of all, I want to make things clear about my trading style as this is VERY important when making trade calls and just discussing trading in general on public forums like this. I am a Swing / Position trader and look only at Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts for overall long-term trend and major turning points in markets.
Crypto – Been watching for the past year but couldn’t buy at levels (BitCoin) and have just kept missing the boat ever since. Oh well, I still can’t buy in at these levels, especially not with this type of “mania” surrounding Crypto’s and especially BitCoin.
Precious Metals: I played the Baby Bull back early 2016 with USLV (3x Silver) and then jumped into JNUG. Made a decent profit during the first half of that year. Cashed out and entered again late 2016 only to experience a MAJOR selloff while holding JNUG. haha. However, I waited until early February of 2017 and got out with not too big of a loss. After which I took that money and got my Cannabis Producing business up and running here in Oregon and have had a successful year. Taking some of my profits and looking at the Gold / Silver markets as well as Crypto.
**Here is my current Technical Analysis on Gold: https://TerrySudlow.tinytake.com/sf/MjE4OTgxMF82ODAxNDAy