158 thoughts on “GOLD:XAU RATIO”

  1. Gary Post author

    Click on the settings wheel and change to high def to improve quality. Click on full screen to enlarge video.

  2. Gary Post author

    Now if you think like I do that the secular gold bull will at least make it to $5000, and then extrapolate a gold:XAU ratio of 4 you come up with an XAU price in the neighborhood of 1200.

    Now you see how we can get JNUG to 500…

    1. carlvan

      Thanks Gary, as per my email for the Challenge the other day I bought JNUG @ 14.50. As you know the biggest challenge, at least for me and for a lot of traders I guess, will be NOT to sell JNUG before that level of 500 ! Merry XMas.

  5. Jim Dandy

    We just finished watching Mike Maloney´s hour long video on Bitcoin, blockchain, and Hashgraph. Especially in the second half of the video, it is clear Bitcoin is going to ZERO.

    I will buy some cryptos at some point in the future, but it won´t be Bitcoin, as it probably will be worthless.

      2. Americano

        Lol. Redcoats still in England grasping at straws. They were left behind.
        MySQL is akin to this private thing.
        Hashgraph has a seriousness factor to the ridiculous hair dye job of the commentator.
        Onward…,,Mayflower!

      3. RTTPD

        Just watched it. Very interesting……it sounds like Bitcoin is already a dinosaur.

        I especially liked the part that mentioned George Washington and others who built this country, that were confident and willing to relinquish their positions and return to private life….

        The people we have today, many like John McCain and Dianne Fienstein, never wish to relinquish their positions in government…..and are always seeking more power and control.

        1. Jim Dandy

          I find it interesting that Maloney was also a buyer of Bitcoin in 2014, and while liking the concept of cryptos in general, he was a recent seller of his Bitcoin to put the profits into silver. I don´t think it was his intent to throw Bitcoin under the bus, but that is what I came away with.

          There are some other good channels that discuss the setup of DASH, for example, and how the founder scammed buyers from day 1. If not a scam, certainly it would be illegal the way they changed the number of coins outstanding while not the current number of coins they had already mined, as well as the start time to begin mining.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBxbiH_Mg44

          As with any wild west scenario, I am not surprised to see quick money attract everybody, including scumbags and thieves. To think this area won´t get heavily regulated and soon is beyond naive, but just try telling that to somebody that is already counting their $100K bitcoin profits.

          1. RTTPD

            Well if you spend 90 minutes on stocktwits and read about 200 posts on various crpyptos strings, it doesn’t take one long to come to the conclusion that about 90 percent of the buyers are like the Uber driver you mentioned already.

            Both the fallacy and overriding factor in their pysche/behavior is that almost none of them are the block chain puriest whose main focus is change/help humanity become more honest and efficient.

            Instead, clearly their true motive is to hop on the bandwagon, and more importantly, profit very quickly. They almost want instantaneous profits.

            By the way, ole’ Clive Maund is out there raising hell with the snowflakes. https://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?id=4456

  6. Duuuuuude

    On Dec 16 I posted how you could trade silver futures and gain 100% if silver goes from $16 to $17. I am following up that post with how it is working out. I am posting this for people who might have interest in using cycles and sentiment to trade futures.

    This is a live trade involving silver futures. The attached chart shows my positions and stops.

    Margins on silver are now $4700 which is lower than the $5200 amount I quoted 10 days ago actually making it easier to gain 100%.

    A silver futures contract allows you to control 5000 troy ounces of silver. If you bought 5000 oz of silver and paid $16 for it, you would pay $80,000 for it. If silver goes up $1 per oz, your position went from $80,000 to $85000……. up 6%. For $4700 in margin, you can control the same 5000 oz in silver. Every penny silver increases is worth $50. $16 to $17 is 100 cents……. 100 X $50 = $5,000 or 106%.

    You can see that my average trade price is $16.01. As I write this tonight, the March contract is at $16.465. I am presently up .455 per contract. 45.5 X $50 = $2275 per contract which is a 48% gain in just over a week.

    https://www.screencast.com/t/26AJZ1gsF

    1. Gary Post author

      Or you could be sitting on a 40% drawdown if one had listened to Ted and bought GBTC at the top. 🙂

      1. Gary Post author

        I begged people to control greed and take profits. Then put the profits into metals. But no one ever listens at bubble tops. They always believe they’ve found the path to easy riches.

        There is no such path and there never has been. Bubbles are the most dangerous financial markets as we’ve seen during the tech bubble, real estate bubble, energy bubble, and now the crypto bubble. But in the latter stages of a bubble common sense goes out the window.

        1. Duuuuuude

          The reason I posted this 9 days ago was because people were losing their minds over Bitcoin and I wanted to demonstrate how you can do just as well using proven financial instruments such as Futures but still manage the risk. I have gold and platinum positions as well that I am managing the same way with stops in place so that my risk is little or no principle. Its no mania, just sound trading with good risk management.

          1. Spanglish Inquisition

            Duuuuude, thank you for posting these lessons. Keep doing so please. I’ve been learning how to use leverage safely.

            Just sold 2/3 of my Jan 5th NUGT strike 30 call for +633%. Bought it the day before the FOMC.

        2. Jim Dandy

          Mike Maloney heard you and did just that. That makes two large, very early adopters that have cashed out recently while the late bagHODLers are still chirping away and more confident as ever. We have seen this before, it truly reminds me of the real estate flipping shows back in 2008, in fact they continued right on past the top, until the shows eventually were making people puke every time they came on and were reminded of the disaster.

          Quick and easy money is hard to come by, it exists, but you have to take it when you get it, not assume more is on the way. Thinking you are early when you actually are quite late, is the kiss of death.

  7. Jim Dandy

    Before I forget, my cousin is married to a guy who is now known as they family fool for losing their savings and more during the real estate. He even lost a decent portion of my late grandmother´s savings by borrowing to build houses, luckily she had enough sense to listen to others in the family and not get in deeper, despite his Ted and Americano -like predictions.

    T

  8. Jim Dandy

    Before I forget, my cousin is married to a guy who is now known as they family fool for losing their savings and more during the real estate. He even lost a decent portion of my late grandmother´s savings by borrowing to build houses, luckily she had enough sense to listen to others in the family and not get in deeper, despite his Ted and Americano -like predictions.

    This dummy was yapping about Bitcoin yesterday like he knew where it was going (to the moon). Of course he didn´t own any, was just telling us what a great investment it WILL BE. He still hasn´t recovered from the real estate implosion, that´s why he dosen´t have any imaginary coins yet. I can only imagine his energy had he been invested now like he was back then, I remember ´08 like yesterday!

    1. Jim Dandy

      Skip to 3:30 into the video, but here we have an ex-homeless Uber driver going äll in on Cryptos, and telling his Uber clients about all the money to be made as he tries to get referral bonuses. I will wager that lining up behind this guy never pays off. It´s been too easy, he says!

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dozh4GQzh-M

  9. faz

    Nolan Watson presenting at Mines and Money back in 2013 with very interesting information. While I’m watching it there’s a vid of Brent Cooke showing in the playlist but Nolan’s presentation here blows anything I’ve ever heard from Brent Cooke away into the dust. For example insight into how any miner that builds a mine on time is a special bunch of people..

    Nice viewing for precious metals fans.

  10. Gary Post author

    At this point I’m going to say there is no more doubt that gold has completed a final ICL. Ped and Sally couldn’t have been more wrong and as usual have disappeared.

    Copper has also turned back up and has made a new high this morning.

    I suspect we are going to see some weird action in the currencies over the next couple of weeks as I expect the ECB and BOJ are going to intervene and try to keep their currencies from rising. They will probably succeed in keeping them stuck in a trading range but I doubt they will be able to push them down. This will probably create some really strange cycle counts in the currencies.

    I’m still expecting the indexes to deliver one more pop higher before a deeper dive into an ICL but just in case I’m wrong we’ve already deleveraged the stock portfolio and will wait until we do get the next ICL before aggressively adding leverage back to the portfolio.

  11. Jimsee

    goood morning SMTBlog! Dec28 gold pivot approaches – but most importantly this heralds an opportunity to confirm/deny the 2018 golden volatility theme – if we hold above Dec12 low – on the next cycle down it is a go imo.

    1. Nada

      You must still be questioning the ICL, if you believe the Dec low will possibly be tested or not hold? A new daily cycle started less than 2 weeks ago and has 2-3 weeks before talk about DCL is warranted.

      1. Jimsee

        Nada – I question everything related to price – examine the last 2 yearly lows in gold – a chop is always possible even before a grand up move.

        Time is the manipulated variable imo (by the greater consciousness) -so it is in control – not price.

        Witness CHF (Oct26), copper (Dec 5) – unexpected price action but *perfect* timing, etc…

        Gold took a week and one more turn on the wheel (Dec5-Dec12) to bottom so it possibly is still harboring some weakness…we should know in 7-10 days.

        1. Nada

          Fair enough in regard to questioning price. IMO, the move has already been validated. You had the bounce off the .786 fib 1 day before FOMC and now gold is up 50 points off said move. When you finally thumbs up, the move will be up over 70-80 points?

          By that time, the move in the first daily cycle will be 50-70% done.

          1. Duuuuuude

            Exactly…..you buy at the swing low with a stop just below and you capture most of the move. You risk less capital and avoid the inter swing volatility that can stop you out of a good position.

          2. Jimsee

            Nada – Ho Ho Ho 🙂

            Yah – so sad I missed this entire up move – – welp – better luck next time!!!

            🙂

          3. Nada

            @Jimsee. Never said you missed the entire move, just pointing out the obvious. We are in the first daily cycle of the IC, you will have plenty of chances to get long. GL

  16. Roy Batty

    Looks like all the snowflakes were wrong again about the demise of bitcoin ($16,000). The latest correction was relatively minor. They’ve been wrong for over 7 years now and I suspect that every time there’s a large future pullback they’ll get their panties in a wad because human nature never changes. I don’t think anyone who has been a PM speculator will give up on gold, silver, and their miners …. some, like me, will just add a dose of cryptos to their portfolios.

    1. Gary Post author

      The best thing that can happen to bitcoin is for the crash to continue now before any more people get caught up in this mania and end up losing everything.

      1. Roy Batty

        Gary, people have been saying that for over seven years …. believe me, you’re not an original thinker in this area.

        1. Gary Post author

          We’ve only now entered the mature bubble phase with price rising parabolic. Now the masses are piling in to what they consider a “sure thing”.

          They will end up losing everything.

          1. Roy Batty

            “They will end up losing everything.” Unlike a real estate mania you cannot borrow huge money (collateralized) for the purchase of cryptos and OTOT the median price of them is not even a tiny fraction of $250,000, like a home. Anyone who puts all their savings into any speculation is bound to lose everything eventually, whether it be cryptos or leveraged PM. I’ll say it again, this is just the start of the mania …. large institutions, governments, and central banks are just beginning to sprinkle money at cryptos. Much less the average individual. WORLDWIDE.

    2. Jim Dandy

      Around $16k for a bounce was expected, might even go to 17K, but you still should be thinking sell. Talking of adding a ¨dose of cryptos¨ to a portfolio as if it´s an investment is laughable. It´s like buying some bolivars, pesos, etc and putting in your ¨portfolio¨, so which cryptos, because some are surely junk, and if bitcoin isn´t among the junkers, surely it has run too far to fast in a vertical manner.

      1. Jim Dandy

        I would like to short GBTC as the premium will deflate even faster than Bitcoin soon, but my broker dosen´t have any to lend. LOL, that is not a good sign for the longs, as the pros have shorted it all up already.

      2. Roy Batty

        Just like the dotcoms in the late nineties, 99% of the cryptos are garbage. The biggest difference, I think, is that crypto protocols are not usually controlled centrally like a company or corporation. This means they can be judged by the actual protocol (software) and not by larger variables. Easier to pick the long term winners IMO. You’re conflating all cryptos with bitcoin and that’s a mistake. BTC has enjoyed a rocket launch due to being first mover, in piggy bank disruption, and is based on the network effects of large adoption.

        1. Jim Dandy

          I am not conflating Bitcoin to all cryptos, my call is on Bitcoin itself. It sounds like it´s already antiquated, if one believes Mike Maloney, and he isn´t just a naysayer, he liked it before the bubble and only recently sold.

          As far as other cryptos, I a sure some will have value, or at least the blockchain or hashgraph will, but that is a different story. We are talking only about vertical Bitcoins.

          1. Roy Batty

            “Talking of adding a ¨dose of cryptos¨ to a portfolio as if it´s an investment is laughable.” Cryptos doesn’t mean BTC.

          2. Gary Post author

            You can’t seriously think that all of these clueless idiots buying cryptocurrencies right now are going to make money. This is just not how the world works. Idiots get fleeced. Smart money that buys early when no one wants it, make money.

            This is why the smt makes money. I’m buying when everybody else is selling, and I’m selling when everyone else is buying.

          3. Roy Batty

            I never said that all people buying cryptos are going to make money. Why are you being so belligerent? Isn’t it possible to have a civil conversation about disruptive technologies? “Clueless idiot”. Wow, thanks a lot.

    3. Nada

      I think you are using the term snowflake incorrectly;

      Urban dictionary
      A term used to describe extremist liberals that get offended by every statement and/or belief that doesn’t exactly match their own.

      Most bitcoin traders are millennials according to consensus information and the term “snowflake” is parked comfortably with that generation. I would think few millennials are PM traders, so who are you actually addressing?

      Lets see how far the bounce goes before claiming bitcoin victory. I see back to 16kish and then a deep correction to 8-9k. Time will tell.

      1. Jim Dandy

        They are going to ride it up to $200K per coin, then get out just before everybody realizes its going to consume all the electricity produced in the world, for imaginary ¨coins¨. Cha-ching!

        1. Nada

          Apparently they do. They showed up how they melted over +45% in a 3 day drop. Let’s watch them line up to do it again 🙂

          2. Nada

            Roy unless you show us some P/L for your bitcoin trades, it will be regarded as BS. Of course you do not have to do this, but you can’t take ownership of a 500% move up and say you were apart of said move and expect anyone to believe you. This is not an attack on you and hope you have done well, I am suggesting that a lot of folks “claim” they have made a lot of money on bitcoin and I suspect more than 90% is BS.

            Let’s face it. The guys that were in bitcoin at .30 cents years ago.. 95% sold at .60 cents.

          5. RTTPD

            ” Strawman alert.”

            Batty — if you are such a Bitcoin savant and purest and seem confident that the price will rebound, why did you only buy one bitcoin?

            You told Gary a few weeks ago that you made millions in the last real-estate boom, flipping properties, etc.

            So with all your posts about Bitcoin and the fact that you’re a multimillionaire real-estate investor who fanaticly loves Bitcoin – again, why did you buy only one?

          6. Roy Batty

            Nada, are you shorting bitcoin? Just what I thought. That doesn’t mean you don’t have the right to express your opinions though.

          7. Nada

            @Roy Batty

            I simply tried to explain to you, without some type of P/L no one was going to believe. Hell I even said I hope you had done well. Then since you didn’t like my post, you called me a strawman. Typical “snowflake” response.

          8. Roy Batty

            Nada, no offense but I couldn’t care less if you believe anything I say. I’m not interested in proving anything to you other than esoteric type stuff. I don’t know you and vice versa. We are all pretty much anonymous here other than the Big Dog himself.

        2. Roy Batty

          RTTPD,
          I didn’t only buy one …. that’s what I was left with after using some BTC to buy a couple of other cryptos. So far I’ve put in about 16k and it’s become 56k. Now I only have ETH and CVC. I plan on buying filecoin in the future when they come out. The reason I’m not putting in that much is because I’m a late comer and it’s scary. I want to get into a position where 90% of my investment is house money.

  18. jacob2

    Fear. The common denominator in the sm rise since 2009 has been fear. Fear and the wall of worry are gone. Very limited upside in sm. Best risk/ reward are the metals. End of the year always a good time to sell what’s loved and buy what’s hated.

    1. Gary Post author

      On the contrary as I have pointed out in several videos the Robo ratio isn’t even vaguely close to levels of complacency that would indicate we are nearing a final top.

      This is why it’s so important to have a subscription to sentimentrader instead of trying to extrapolate sentiment from your bias.

      2. jacob2

        Sands are shifting. Not just the absence of fear but the other pillars of the bull are also going away; disinflation , falling yields and fed accommodation. We’re now at full employment, the global economy has synchronized and the Fed is tightening = a contraction of the money supply. As the juice drys up history suggest we get a rough patch. A SM correction not off the cliff.

        1. Gary Post author

          ICL happen like clockwork about every 20 to 25 weeks. This one is extremely right translated. I’ve been warning people for a couple of weeks now to get off of Leverage in case and ICL begins.

      3. Spanglish Inquisition

        Hey Gary, can you give a brief description of what is a ‘Robo ratio?’. I’ve heard you use this before but was always unsure what it meant.

  20. Jimsee

    spx is showing a topping timing band jan8-11 , can’t wait to see if it measures a real move of substance.

      1. Roy Batty

        Thank you for the link … interesting. QC could actually make cryptos even more practical due to benefits such as reduced energy consumption.

  22. Nada

    Gary,

    The first daily cycle appears to had its first DC influenced by the “fire and furry’ tweet. We witnessed an extended cycle with no clear DCL when comparing to previous DC’s. What are your thoughts on this first DC, where do you see resistance before a DCL hunt is expected?

  23. Nada

    Selling half of my GLD Feb calls here at 80% profit.

    Nada
    December 12, 2017 at 11:51 am
    Is gold trying to bottom before FOMC? I bought Feb 16th 124 calls. Lots of leverage here and they are “lotto calls”. I will not add to these, these are all or nothing. 1k investment. Cheers.

  24. Jimsee

    Silver doing the necessary work here so far imo to setup a strong outperformance in 2018-2021 or so.

    That Jul low was no accident in timing a relative new dynamic between gold/silver – the big Q was will gold follow to a sweep of DEC2016 on the next ICL with a silver divergence – the answer is apparently NO.

  26. Duuuuuude

    The March Silver contract is at $16.60. I am presently up .59 per contract. 59 X $50 = $2950 per contract. This is $675 higher per contract than when I posted last night. I have pushed up stops but not tight.

    1. Jimsee

      Great trade Duuude 🙂 Thinking 21 gets tested this ICL – min by august IMO.

      Looking forward to some yummy options leverage from 22-49 !!

  27. Gary Post author

    Roy,

    You know very well what I mean. The people that are mortgaging their house or buying cryptos on credit cards, aka the clueless idiots.

    This is the kind of behavior we see at the top of bubbles. Unsophisticated investors piling in with everything they have and borrowing money for what they consider to be a “sure thing”.

    1. Roy Batty

      No I didn’t but thanks for the explanation. I don’t see any indications of a long term top other than extreme above the mean…. which has happened over and over again. When every other person you meet is buying or has bought bitcoin is when a long term top is eminent and I don’t see anything like that. An infinitesimally small percentage of the global population owns any bitcoin at all. Large institutions are just now coming on board. I don’t think you are going to lose any subscribers based on it since PM types will always be in PM’s. All the early adopters of BTC, that I know of, have large PM and miners positions. It’s just a diversification of store of value. That’s just my opinion but I think even a small amount of research shows it.

      1. didier

        Did you investigate hashgraph? Does the same as btc but 10000 quicker and with 10000 less energyconsumption. Btc is a museumpiece.

          1. Roy Batty

            Yes I did. I stopped when I realized that hashgraph won’t work in the wild but only in private networks such as credit union consortiums. It’s a slight improvement over IBM’s hyperledger but needs registered (trusted) nodes to operate safely. It uses closed source code, proprietary, and is centralized. You need the block ledgers to guarantee no double spending in the wild. People can store billions on BTC and sleep good at night knowing it’s safe.

  28. Jimsee

    while we wait for cycles to develop – it’s fun to have at the numbers – believing at a minimum we do a 100% equal swing as from the DEC 2016 gold lo —> 1475 zone assuming counting from 1240 zone DEC ICL lo.

    It is likely that first swing will be the first wave of a 3 pusher targeting 1850+ , the big Q is which cycle will allow that first retest of old bull mkt highs?

    1. Nada

      Jimsee, are you suggesting this IC test gold highs?? I certainly do not see that. Your cycle talk is a bit different from the cycles we speak of here, so maybe that is not what you are saying.

      1. Jimsee

        NO , no clue on which one does it – but it is likely IMO we break the old highs within 2 years . Working backward we can narrow windows of hi-probability.

        1. Jimsee

          IF we can break gdxj 50 zone, or gold 1380 in this first IC of 3 or 4 that should march to new highs it’s a great sign that the longer pattern has flipped hard bull – then we can look to an 1800+ retest in late 2018-early 2019 IMO.

  29. Jimsee

    a low volume constant slog UP to gdxJ 50 zone everyone doubts each step of the way would be too much to hope for? 🙂

  30. Jimsee

    Nada – tomorrow is a peak of some sorts in my cycle work for gld – if we do not reverse and do continue on it’s a GREAT sign within 2 days fwiw.

  31. Roy Batty

    Nada,
    I didn’t call you a strawman. I called your argument strawman. Sorry for the confusion … I meant no harm.

    1. Nada

      OK no worries. Sorry, as I was trying to point out.. Its hard to separate sometimes between the true bitcoin traders and the ones just saying they are. No hard feelings and best of luck in your other cryptos!

  32. Jimsee

    Can anyone confirm COT analysis – it looks like on the easy-chart view I have that SILVER large traders are LESS long than at the JULY 2016 lows – this does not show all banking positions but generally seems like usable data.

    1. faz

      What do you mean by large traders ? Commercials (who are apparently generally right) ? Or Large speculators (generally hedge funds who are apparently generally wrong) ? (Or both?)

  34. Roy Batty

    I think most of the “true believers” in bitcoin are in it for more than monetary reasons. They have a philosophy of freedom and view the technology as a potential bridge to personal sovereignty. That’s why I think the initial investors, and remaining whales, aren’t weak hands. It’s the principle of it that matters most to them. They dream of big bankers and big government bureaurats being no more powerful than the rest of us.

        1. Jim Dandy

          We don´t need to know why, you don´t sell EVERYTHING if you think something is going higher.

          The comparisons to George Washington and the pilgrims are starting to get ridiculous, kinda like my relative that kept talking ¨straight to the moon¨ with real estate in 2007, likening himself to Neil Armstrong. LOL, You guys are living in the clouds.

      1. Roy Batty

        So using your definition George Washington, and his comrades, were stupid? After all, they risked everything, including their lives for freedom. Maybe so.

        1. Jim Dandy

          You forgot all bout the big fight that ensued, before that liberty was won. It got real ugly first, and bitcoin isn´t just going to waltz in and every idiot buy in, without some serious pain first, if it even does triumph in the end. We don´t what will break the ascent, but we know it will be something and it won´t be apparent until after it occurs.

          Parabolas are to be sold, that is all there is to it.

  35. Roy Batty

    President Trumps recent Executive Order authorizing the confiscation of assets worldwide should give BTC or Monero another boost. It’s ironic, and fitting, that the same people who took part in and agreed with the construction of the U.S. International Financial System are the ones now being targeted by it.

  36. BestOfLuck

    “Gary … December 25, 2017 at 6:55 am
    Now if you think like I do that the secular gold bull will at least make it to $5000, and then extrapolate a gold:XAU ratio of 4 you come up with an XAU price in the neighborhood of 1200. Now you see how we can get JNUG to 500…”

    Gary, please allow yourself to be reminded, and corrected, that your prediction of JNUG $500, was based sometimes in 2016 before JNUG did a reverse split of 4-to-1.

    So PLEASE, for integrity and honesty sake, you should set your claim of JNUG $2000 — post adjusted. Or $500 – PRE adjusted.

    You blast other newsletter of lack of honesty and integrity, so, please live it up yourself right here.

    JNUG $2000 post split.

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes JNUG will make it to $500 split adjusted or $2000.

      Seriously if gold is at $5000 and the XAU is over $1000 do you really think JNUG isn’t going to be over $2000.

      The same thing that is happening with bitcoin now is going to happen in the metals sector. The problem is that almost no one will have the patience to hang on long enough to reap the reward.

      We’ve seen almost everyone bail this year and all because the metals went into a basing phase.

      1. Jimsee

        indeed – the need confirmation copper buyers now need 4.0 to ‘see a reason’. silver will be 20+ bef chasers come in force. gold who knows – maybe 1400?

    1. Gary Post author

      A big chunk of that will come during the last year. The problem is that one will have to hang on for several years through the boring times before the real fireworks begin.

      Just look at what TQQQ has done during the course of this bull market. The metals bull will be many times bigger than the bull in QQQ.

      2. Don

        I guess you could say the miners have “massively outperformed the S&P”. but it could also be said that since July of 2016, they have massively under performed the S&P and in fact have been a losing bet for most of the last 17 months.
        Cherry picking the stats for maximum effect is always a fun exercise. Isn’t that right Gary?

        1. Gary Post author

          There’s no cherry picking involved at all. Since the metals ended their bear market in early 2016 (and the S&P completed it’s 7 YCL) the miners have outperformed the S&P by a wide margin even despite the fact that the S&P has begun a vertical advance and the metals have been stuck in a basing pattern.

          The S&P is up 50% during that period.

          GDX is up 91%. GDXJ is over 100%.

          No cherry picking involved. I started from a major multi year cycle low in both and the miners are the clear winner. It’s not even really a contest. And if the metals are ready to break out of the basing pattern like I think they are then they are going to continue to outperform even if the stock market goes into a huge bubble.

          1. JJHarmen

            I like to look at GDX’s peak in 2011 vs the S&P and it’s pretty clear that GDX has some serious catching up to do, except that thinking hasn’t worked out very well, at least not since my grandson has gone from being three years old to nine.

        2. faz

          Yes Don it could be said they underperformed in the more recent interval but what is the value of this – are you saying you’re going to sell miners and buy stocks ? Please post your trade pair in real time so we can see the performance. If you’re real good you’ll get the credit you deserve. Well that will no doubt happen either way.

          1. Don

            Faz: Since July of 2016, 17 months ago , have the miners out performed the S&P? Just a simple yes or no answer will be suffice.

          2. faz

            So you’re not gonna answer my question.. I guess it means no you’re not actually talking about some actionable wisdom. You want me to answer is 2+2=4 well sure. Enjoy…

      1. dboz

        Thanks Don, it doesn’t come easy. Always appreciate the insight you bring to the forum. Touching sentiment like this is what keeps me coming back. Appreciate all your critiques of others while offering nothing constructive of your own. Keep grinding it out buddy!

        2. Don

          Dboz, don’t get your panties in a knot. I liked your chart and agree with your “red arrow” is a high probability.

  43. frankieyong

    Hey Gary

    Despite your bullishness on metals do you still only advocate 20-50% of net worth in this trade?

    Despite stocks heading to icl do you think we should concentrate on this sector because of the PPT?

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m only going to give my blessing to 20%.

      The metals have a long way to go yet. There will be plenty of time to ramp up the exposure to metals once the bull trend is more firmly established.

      Stocks aren’t heading into an ICL just yet. I think they still have one more pop higher first and I expect the ICL could again be mild.

      1. Cybo33

        Gary the gold:xau ratio getting out of whack seems to coincide with the rise of the ETF’s in this sector. GDX and GDXJ come to mind and with them they bring passive investing in this sector.

        Do you think that this type of investing will keep the ratio well above the previous norms even when some money starts to trickle back to this sector?

  45. JJHarmen

    I will be glad when the Gold bull market gets into full swing. I have been holding GDX for over a year and still haven’t made a dime’s worth of profit, despite the recent advances and all the while watching the SM go vertical. It is discouraging.

  46. Nada

    Chart updates;

    Dixie – Price continues to move as projected – from the sell the breakdown idea;
    https://gyazo.com/30040827fb226201b452bbfb49b4af7f

    USDJPY – keeping the markets up and not doing much
    https://gyazo.com/c4992ae5821247dfbcf8b8ce9d86a3b8

    Bitcoin – I still think this gartley has potential
    https://gyazo.com/080b69ceb31dc49b32c4e94899093263

    Gold – at resistance that I marked on chart yesterday
    https://gyazo.com/70da3a9c61670aacfd19ee67ce8b12b6

    Gold Gartley;
    https://gyazo.com/3e0ec8e8b4b2d2b1e7cd0e48f588f460

  48. JJHarmen

    Looks like we have our obligatory opening gap up for the S&P. My guess is this is going to be a nothing day with a slight gain or loss at the close. In other words, more low volatility.

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