1. Duuuuuude

    So the Bitcoin bulls enjoy talking about making real money in the crypto’s. Bitcoin closed Friday at 18285. If Bitcoin moves to 36,570 you doubled your money. Congratulations if that happens.

    If the same person bought 1 silver futures contract, he/she would put down $5,200 in margin. and would control 5000 troy ounces of silver. Silver futures move $50 for every penny the price changes. If he/she bought silver at $16, the price of silver only needs to move to $17.04 to achieve a 100% return. (104 X $50 = $5200) If silver moves to $18.08, you made a 200% return.

    We have no way to gauge where Bitcoin may be in a cycle but we know Bitcoin optix is nearly 90. Can you logically say Bitcoin at these extreme optimistic levels is a smarter buy than silver, gold or platinum when you can buy them with leverage at the bottom of an ICL with the optix near extreme pessimistic levels? With futures, you can manage the risk with a stop just below the ICL. Because of the volatility in Bitcoin, you can’t even use a stop. I find the logic truly baffling.

    1. taco

      OK here is my take on BTC, first BTC protocol is an identity verification application, second is its a transaction protocol. This is why transactions take so long. “Experts” are saying there are only 22 million BTC’s available, actually when you factor in “lost” BTC the “real Experts” estimate there are about 17 million BTC available. Here is where it one needs to change the way they look at currency. If you buy say a burger for $5 in USA, you give the merchant $5. If you buy two burgers you give the merchant $10 and etc. So with BTC if you buy the same burger and BTC is worth $10 at the time you transfer .5 a BTC to the merchant. Now here is where most get lost, if BTC is worth $20 you transfer .25 of one BTC to the merchant. If BTC is worth $100 you transfer .05 BTC to merchant. The point here is BTC was designed to go parabolic when it comes to price per coin. They dont need to have 22 trillion BTC’s available, BTC just needs to have a large enough value because you can use it to what ever decimal point you require to spend it. This is the key for BTC to be a tool for alternative currency. Hope this helps.

      1. Americano

        True. Essentially Bitcoin is priced right now on exchanges as if gold was quoted on exchanges as per Ton vs per ounce as it is currently.
        This will change shortly. BTC will be listed in Millys – mBTC.
        18.90 each currently.

  2. Gary Post author

    Here’s the reality of bitcoin as a currency. The notion that one can transfer money easily is a fairy tale. The fees are huge, much larger than a credit card and the process is very slow.

    Pay particular attention at the 4:40 mark where he says he won’t sell.

    These are the people that will be crying to the government to bail them out when the crash comes.

    1. MikeD

      I think this bitcoin bubble suits governments. First investors get excited and then they get caught in a crash, and confidence in crypto’s evaporates.

    2. taco

      Believe me I just trade it…what most don’t understand is BTC is a currency for people where their currency is in shambles, and last time I checked there are more poor people than rich. Also BTC is the first “bubble” that is not created by a Central BANK.

      1. Gary Post author

        If someone is looking for a stable currency bitcoin is about as far away from that as it’s possible to get.

        In my opinion its a pure Ponzi scheme that does almost none of the things acolytes claim as exhibited by the video.

        It’s just the latest get rich scheme in a long long line of them stretching back for thousands of years. As long as humans have emotions then there will always be the next fad just around the corner.

        1. Gary Post author

          It really is true that almost no one can recognize a bubble until after it collapses. Then we look back and wonder what the hell we were thinking.

          1. taco

            You guys are funny, you just blat “its a scam” do your DD. Don’t make your self look so transparent. I am not a BTC head, I trade it, with profits only, but I do have my eyes wide open. Try it..it doesn’t hurt. W0W!!!

          2. Gary Post author

            It’s too violent for me to trade and way way too far above the long term moving averages. This thing can drop 20-40% in a matter of days. Way too much risk of getting caught at the top at this point.

    3. ted

      Gary, that may be true of BTC, but not all the cryptos. That’s why I have bought DASH because they have solved this problem.

  3. bginvestor

    If the 7 year cycles are considered to be “stretched”; therefore, it is not out of the question to have a shorten cycle right after .

    Even less than 4 years? hmm

  4. Strike2

    When bitcoin breaks POG will rise. This is an unpopular view but totally logical. A lot of that money will go to the conventional non-government form of money.

  5. taco

    I have 90%-100% twice on profits, I only trade %125 of my profits now. My principal plus 75% of my 1st profits are mine…just saying


  6. taco

    See I or anyone knows where BTC top is, but what I do is take my bites out of the run ups, stash them let it coil and take another bite with profits only. I am a trader, I don’t care if I trade gold, oil, silver, PCLN, GOOGL, AAPL, BTC profit is profit…just saying


    1. taco

      so true I am a trader, what great trading this is if you are deciplined …w0w..BTW I am long for Monday…BOOM!!!!

      1. RTTPD

        Taco —–

        You and your philosophy remind me very much of another guy here who seems to have a 95 percent rate in profiting every time he buys into jnug.

    2. Gary Post author

      The bet is that by this time next year bitcoin will be back below $1000.

      And all the people who are making money now will have lost everything.

      Human nature never changes.

      1. Gary Post author

        Only those who can control greed will come away with anything to show from this bubble and so far I’ve seen no one exhibiting any greed control at all.

        Like I said: Human nature never changes.

      2. vin

        So, right. Human nature never changes. Monkeys they descend from, monkeys they shall remain?

        Come on Gary! Who knows what is going to happen a year from today and how will the present btc holders behave in future?

        Within a year there will be so many changes in tea leaf readings. Couple of days ago you had changed your mind on gold/golds, and then you have changed your mind again. LOL!

        Let us stick with 10k nasdaq by june/july and then we will see? 20k soon after? And, let us stick with “certainty” that gold is a BULL!

        I would like to clarify that I am a goldbug and am heavily invested in gold/golds and I am not talking about jnug, gdx, gdxj etc. I am talking about real gold and real miners like abx, gg, fnv, fr, paas, wpm, kgc, iag, exk, gpl etc. etc. So, I would love to see gold/golds go up. But, to be sure that gold will go up is pushing a bit too much. Human nature?

        1. Gary Post author

          Changed my mind on gold?

          I’ve been saying for months that gold would need to complete at least one failed daily cycle before the final ICL. I even went so far as to anticipate the ICL would occur on, or within a day or two of the FOMC meeting.

          When gold broke support at 1260 (and completed the failed cycle) I warned that bloodbath phases usually last 5-7 days. It was 6 days in gold, 7 days in miners.

          I’ve been watching sentiment for months now cautioning people to wait until sentiment reached bearish extremes before buying. It reached that extreme this week.

          I sold back in September within pennies of the exact top. I started buying on the morning of the FOMC meeting.

          Have you been paying attention at all to what I’ve been saying? Do you watch the videos?

          Apparently not if you think I’ve changed my mind on gold.

          1. vin

            “I started buying on the morning of the FOMC meeting.”

            and then

            “Gary Post author
            December 16, 2017 at 1:37 pm
            I wouldn’t say last weeks low is sacrosanct just yet. Gold hasn’t broken the downtrend line or turned the 10 DMA back up yet. So we don’t have confirmation that the cycle has bottomed. It’s entirely possible for gold to undercut last weeks low and stretch the daily cycle just a little bit more before bottoming. That’s not really my primary expectation but I’ve seen it happen enough times to know not to write it off.”

            I guess you are just covering both possibilities. Nothing wrong with that, a great strategy.

          2. Gary Post author

            Again you are misunderstanding. I have purchased my metal positions but I’m not going to panic if gold were to drop back down and produce and undercut low. It’s late enough in the cycle that stopping out at this point would be a flawed strategy.

            I think gold has probably completed its intermediate cycle oh but if not we are close enough. And in this business close enough is good to make a lot of money.

  7. taco

    Not me! i have stashed profits…honestly you dont see the potential here. But i have already have profits I will not give back. I could be wrong, but it really doesn’t matter $$$ is already banked. And more to come….so you guys keep calling the top and I will keep making profits with my profits….just saying


    1. Gary Post author

      Well you have to enter the challenge and make real time calls before anyone will believe you have profits.

      Heck anyone can claim to have bought years ago or even months ago and brag about huge profits but so far only one person has made anything off the bitcoiin bubble in the challenge.

      1. Gary Post author

        If we ever get options on bitcoin I will at some point buy put options and I’ll guarantee I’ll make many times more money than anyone trying to jump on the bandwagon this late in the cycle.

        This is a bears dream setup. The largest bubble the world has ever seen. Billionaires were created during the last bubble collapse by the very few that could see what was really happening.

        The same thing will happen this time but we have to have a realistic way to short the bubble.

        1. jake

          When the Bitcoin experiment crashes the banks will pick up the pieces, it’s been their long term goal for a global digital currency.

          1. RTTPD

            “When the Bitcoin experiment crashes the banks will pick up the pieces, it’s been their long term goal for a global digital currency.”

            This is the exact reason why I cannot stand cryptos and the block chain.

            I realize you can’t put the genie back in the bottle – but all these crypto nuts are doing is further popularizing and perfecting a stringent control mechanism that the government will employ against them and the rest of us in the future. And as Kathy Fitts says — they’re doing it for the government for free…..

            They’re so greedy and their thinking is so short-sighted and one dimensional it’s beyond the pale.

        2. BeachandBiscuits

          Yes, yes….CME please, please, PLEASE start selling puts on Bitcoin. 🙂

          Problem is they might not sell them far enough out to make the risk worthwhile

  8. taco

    Well I don’t lie, and don’t care if you believe me. I just know my P/L is growing from GBTC…just trying to open some eyes here and not have a predetirmined bias…but it doesn’t matter…take your close mind position, I will still make profits..just saying. Nothing to prove to anyone here..i do just fine.


    1. Gary Post author

      I’m not closed minded, I’m rational.

      No rational person would ever buy long any asset that is stretched 265% above the 200 DMA. When this thing pops it’s going to lose 50% or more of it’s value in a matter of days or even hours. It’s difficult to enter and exit bitcoin, and that will just make the crash all that more severe as everyone tries to get out all at once and the system just shuts down.

      1. taco

        I made it through GBTC very easy to enter and exit…like I said do your DD, it helps..just saying.


    2. vin

      taco I wouldn’t worry about what others say. Do what you feel is right provided you are an adult. Otherwise talk your parents/guardian. Understand if you make money it is yours and if you lose it is yours too. So, why get bothered by others?

      One really doesn’t have to play games. Why waste your time when one can really invest.

      Having said that I would want to say that Gary has been great with his predictions, in general. He is not good. So far he has been excellent. But, he has not been always right. In addition there are many other excellent contributors on this board, worth reading. I am grateful to Gary for having this board.

      1. taco

        I think Gary is fine, no one is correct all the time, including myself. In this case its a vehicle to be traded. This is my take…just a different opinion and the results back me up. just saying


  9. taco

    What you don’t see BTC is an option, a call option with no expiration… do your DD, because it is very obvious you have not….just saying


    1. BeachandBiscuits

      I made good money in BTC, though admittedly it’d be nice to have sold at $19,000.

      However, anyone who thinks governments and Wall Street are just going to let it keep going through the roof to the point it’s a threat to fiat currencies or BTC owners have an advantage over Wall Street is smoking some bad weed.

      Now that they have futures on it, it’s ripe for bank manipulation. I believe in its long-term potential, but a bubble is a bubble. May go up much, much more, but Gary is right that it’s going to crash big time and within a year seems reasonable.

      Then, it will be time to just hang on for it to recover over years, if one still believes in it.

      Whether digital or physical, the old saying that trees don’t grow to the sky is 100% true.

      Much, MUCH better risk/ rewards in some assets other than BTC at this point IMO.

      1. taco

        Beach the futures contracts will have very little effect on BTC, they settle EOD in cash..no BTC..this is a really bad idea..this is just vegas because the brokers have NO BTC on hand….this is just a game and the cme is trading 5 BTC contracts with a 45% margin requirement per contract, which is 5 x $17,000 = $85,000 x 45% = $38,250 per contract, just to trade 1 contract. So only the big boys are in this casino…they get there feeds for BTC price form 4 or 5 BTC sites, but they are not using coinbase for quotes and coinbase is the highest volume site…so wall st will have very little effect on BTC…the baniksters don’t control BTC..that what pisses them off…just saying


        1. BeachandBiscuits

          If you think Wall Street isn’t setting this up for their benefit, no offense, but you’re wrong.

          They will find a way, probably several ways. They’ve been watching and planning it for a long time.

          These people can borrow money at ~1%+/- in unlimited quantities.

          Who knows how many mining operations they have going. There are around 18,000 BTC mined a day….those are no longer primarily coming from Beauford in his basement.

          I’m not saying it’s all about to collapse. I’m just saying it’s incredibly naive if people don’t see the writing on the wall. To think no one can control BTC (and yes I understand it’s distributed nature, etc., etc.) is just naive.

          They don’t have to control 100% of it to have basically de facto control of the market. 10% (maybe less?) is probably enough.

          I’m not anti-bitcoin. I just see some of the same stars in the eyes of Bitcoin dead enders as I did in the people who thought Webvan was going to make them rich.

          People need a balanced view (esp. with the launch of futures which are probably a game changer) and not an arrogant view that those of us who caution on these things “just don’t understand”….that’s a good way to set oneself up for a very, very painful lesson one day.

          They didn’t push/ allow this because they just want to sit back and watch the little guy get rich off of BTC.

          1. taco

            Thats funny the “little guy” is benefitting the most from BTC, the guy in a country who’s currency fluctuates 20-40% in a week, mostly to the down side is the one who is benefitting the most….this is why most can’t wrap their head around BTC…like I said I just trade it, but i did my DD..cheers


          2. BeachandBiscuits

            Yes, but those people are buying in tiny amounts…maybe $10 or $20 here or there in desperation because their currency is going down the toilet. And when BTC fluctuates in big swings they’re no better off…unless it comes back up…which it always has. But that’s getting less and less likely as it goes parabolic.

            My point is people spending big money to buy BTC or trade it expecting the easy gravy train to last are fooling themselves.

            DD doesn’t protect someone from an imploding bubble. It’s impossible for DD to uncover the intricacies of how Wall Street will manipulate it, unless one is part of Wall Street.

            I wish you well….I just wouldn’t be taking large positions or long-term positions (unless they plan to ride out the bubble popping and going back up) in it right now LOL. Whatever, this is what makes a market as they say.

          3. vin

            “There are around 18,000 BTC mined a day” ????????

            This is inconsistent with the “facts” being circulated.

      2. BeachandBiscuits

        Number is from a Piper Jaffrey analyst recently. Probably no one really knows for sure, other than estimating by the limit per year divided by day/ week or whatever.

  10. ted

    The only people who are calling bubble in the crypto’s are on the sidelines watching their JNUG got from $12 to $14 back down to $11.

    It’s a sad state of affairs of old, out of touch investors and people who get it. But I don’t care. All I know if I’m making money. And when the time is right I can’t lose. I will sell enough to get my principle and let the rest ride! I am so far ahead of gold bugs waiting for a bull that never came.

    1. Duuuuuude

      What do you believe is more likely……..BTC $40,000 or silver $17? Either way you can make 100% returns. I just also see BTC going to $2,000 but I don’t see silver going to $1.00.

          1. vin

            If you are talking about derivatives then your logic is flawed. Silver doesn’t have to go to $1 for you to lose all your money. It just has to move down a bit i.e. down to around $16 and you lose 100%.

            And, you are implying that this gambling is less risky than buying btc? Beats me!

      1. vin

        Jokes aside,, what you say is right. At this point it looks like PM is a safer bet. But, then who know? Some one wanted to sell me btc in 2012 (or 2011?) for less than a couple of dimes each and I thought that it was a lousy bet. The way I argued was that my chances of making a 1k on a $800 buy was much less than my losing $800. That should tell you how smart I am? LOL!

        But, coming back to the point. Though it is fun to watch bitcoin firecrackers, it now seems to have gone tooooo far. Again, can it go higher? who knows? People bought tulip bulbs as if there was no tomorrow. And, then there was South Sea Bubble. They say that even Newton invested in it. LOL!

        1. vin

          btw, it btc has created more wealth (even percentage wise) that the South Sea Bubble. So, the crash would be even more spectacular.

        1. Duuuuuude

          I am in position In silver already. If it goes to 17.04 I make $5200……the same as the margin requirement. My stop is at 15.60 so the risk is managed. Simple as that without all the hope or drama.

          1. vin

            So, what percentage of your capital do you lose at 15.60?

            Secondly why can’t one buy btc and put a stop? Why confuse the issue?

    2. Americano

      Sweet. Teds lips to Gods ears lol.
      No-Coiners facial expressions in 2018 will be same as when cavemen first saw fire.

      1. Gary Post author

        Like I said, we are massively outperforming bitcoin with a simple leveraged trade on the stock market. And we don’t have to worry about a parabolic structure collapsing.

  11. jacob2

    Snake oil comes in many different flavors. Why buy gold when you can buy bitcoin? The zeal of commentators of the recently converted gold bug and gold bug sites to BTC almost complete and deafening. The louder it gets the faster I run away.

  12. Gary Post author

    One can’t leverage bitcoin like they can with the stock market. The Quest position is massively outperforming bitcoin over the last 3 months.

    I’m a lot less worried about the stock market crashing 80% than I am about bitcoin.

    The thing is the bitcoin insano’s act like bitcoin is the only place to make money quick. The reality is you can make it much quicker using leverage in the strongly trending stock market.

  13. Gary Post author

    Once the ICL is confirmed a leveraged position in miners will also easily outperform bitcoin in the weeks and months ahead. If I’m right about the basing phase ending then the next intermediate cycle in miners should be quite profitable. Not baby bull profitable but easily outperforming bitcoin going forward.

  14. taco

    YES Gary and I will trade both, like i said I covered gold short last week, currently long googl, PCLN going to get long TSLA this week trg $365…so I don’t limit myself on what I trade. Will get short CMG long NVDA soon LONG JPM ….so I am not limited to GBTC…DILLY DILLY!!


  15. carlvan

    Agree with all that has been said here on the subject: even if you trade the new XBT futures on CBOE, with an average 45% margin requested, you still need a lof ot move to make a 100% return on margin; well, say that for XBT at 20k, you need a move up to 30k to double up. While indeed with Silver as per the example of Duude, just a $1 move on SI would do. Still, I found that if it remains foolish to buy XBT now, it might be an interesting vehicle for scalping/intraday trading. But the bid-ask spread is ridicully high if you use anything else than the futures in my opinion. Now I found some companies offering CFD’s on bitcoin and those ones are really interesting, as you can trade bitcoin, in and out, or longer term, without owning them. Much more interesting than the specific bitcoin exchanges such as Bittrex or Gdax: these ones are slow, you need to transfer your real bitcoins, and their customer support is awful. But even with those CFD’s, the bid-ask spread are a shame: $120 with mine!! So, despite I opened an account there, I use them for Forex trading, where the spread, on major pairs, are … 1/2 pip with no commission! So far I have then never traded bitcoin, and am just observing the charts.

  16. jacob2

    Gary, congratulations on the miner call.

    Your timing is impeccable.

    Here’s hoping it’s only the beginning of a miner run.

    We’re due.

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