241 thoughts on “NASDAQ CYCLE

  1. Gary Post author

    Traders are going to get another great buying opportunity sometime this week.

    Don’t blow it like so many have in the past.

    Every time we get a correction we start hearing predictions of 20-40% crashes. These people scare themselves and miss the buying opportunity every single time.

    Sentiment is already nearing excessively bearish levels in the Nasdaq. As I’ve shown over and over the time to buy is when everyone is scared. To really make money in the market you have to behave differently than most everyone else. You need to be greedy when everyone else is panicking. Take what they are giving you. You need to be fearful when everyone else is giddy. Give them what they want.

    This week you need to be buying. At the end of the month you will need to be selling.

    1. SilverSurfer

      Gary, been reading your articles for years now… probably since 2009. This is by far the best quote you’ve ever had. You’ve stated it differently before, but this is my favorite so far. Thanks for all that you do!

      “To really make money in the market you have to behave differently than most everyone else. You need to be greedy when everyone else is panicking. Take what they are giving you. You need to be fearful when everyone else is giddy. Give them what they want.”

  2. Gary Post author

    Gold should deliver the failed cycle and give us the bloodbath phase over the next week or two.

    The buying opportunity in gold is approaching. Be ready.

    Remember the time to buy is when you are most scared.

    A move to the low 1200’s would scare everyone and it would set the stage for the next intermediate cycle to finally break out of this frustrating basing pattern.

    1. Gary Post author

      Silver and miners have signaled failed cycles. It’s only a matter of time before gold follows. Once gold breaks through 1260 there is nothing but air until it reaches the 1203 level.

      And don’t forget this will be a left translated intermediate cycle so there is risk gold will drop below the July low before completing its YCL.

    2. ras

      Bob Moriarty has a similar take on gold. Then why so much focus on sm which already had a big move? % move in golds could be more than in sm? Both could move up together?

  3. mustang sally

    Good day

    Just to keep everyone on their toes, did you notice that hgd,to gapped over the marker yesterday, hmm. now we have 93.60 usd and 1260 gold to be taken out. Once they are taken out and hold , fasten your seatbelts

    Shortin Sally

  4. Gary Post author

    I’m starting to wonder if this time could be different, and we don’t break the trend line.

    We are in a bubble phase so weird stuff can happen.

    If the Nasdaq closes back above the 10 DMA then I’ll probably give up on a deeper DCL.

      1. Gary Post author

        The SPX had a clear DCL two weeks ago that was confirmed by a deeply oversold reading on the NYMO.

        The Nasdaq is producing its DCL now.

        Like I pointed out in the video the Nasdaq disconnected from the SPX back in July. But I think it will realign in January or February when both produce the next ICL.

        It could be another very mild ICL though. We are in the bubble phase after all.

  5. Nada

    I suspect Christian will be showing up shortly. We are getting very close to the failed cycle and I will have to hand him over a burrito. Obviously my outlook was wrong.

      1. Gary Post author

        My Think or Swim platform has the Oct. DCL at 1262.

        Some patience will be required in gold. It could take out the July low before the ICL is complete.

          1. Nada

            Nevermind, I had the setting “adjust for contract changes” set. Yes 1262.8 is the low for Oct. So no failed cycle as of yet.

  6. Steffmeister

    mmm no real brakedown in my favorite miners, JNUG starting to look interesting though … I will give it a couple of more days before I step in …

    I think the YCL is coming early this year=this week

      1. Pedestrian

        Naa, nothing much to add lately. Although copper finally did crack as I was saying it would all along. There’s our recession indicator kicking in. We saw the top in October and its pretty much downhill from here on out. Surf has also mentioned it. Obvious as hell on a monthly chart but pinning down a reversal date was not so easy. Meanwhile, crude oil peaked in November and the bulls are in for a bloody beating if they don’t reconsider the future which is grim for the black goo. And you know what falling oil usually talks about? It warns that dollars are going to finally start rising again on a cyclical basis while the Euro takes a long awaited face plant back to its multi-decade base. That’s not good for gold at all. Not one bit. But I have a theory gold will buck the trend as the euro starts to decline since there will be significant capital flows into the US and European indices as money tries to defend itself from a euro devaluation and parks in America which will serve to drive the dollar higher than most expect. Some of the money fleeing will park in tangible assets like precious metals and create a strong bid despite the long term correlation of gold falling with the euro. So watch for that if my forecast of double digit loss in euros versus dollars does indeed come true. Other than that,

        Nothing to add to the conversation.

  7. Nada

    So is gold going to pull another double bottom here off the Oct low? Wish it would just get it over with and produced a failed cycle, so things are clear. I am sure a lot bought that DB, so we will have to play it out.

  8. allthatglitters

    Absolutely right it can go lower, just funny there wasn’t the same level of fear when it was much more expensive. So it goes.

    It’s $13.12 right now, and long term that will be looked back at with envy for those who bought at that price.

  9. primetime

    I am also as confident as ever that the PM’s are gonna flip a switch soon and just go to the moon for easy money! It will play out that easy I’m sure. Everybody knows it. Whatever.

  10. primetime

    And then this whole parabolic NASDAQ game, I sold TQQQ on November 8 (~ one month) for $135.61 and it currently sits at $133.23? One heck of a parabolic move, almost like the PM bull market we sit in or step in.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well that depends on if you bought at the July ICL or not. TQQQ was at $95 at that bottom BTW.

      It’s going to be far above $200 before the bubble is finished. But most will lose their position along the way and never make anything.

        1. Gary Post author

          I think one should always keep a full position. It doesn’t always need to be leveraged, but I would always hold at least a full unleveraged position at all times as the bubble starts to ramp up.

    1. primetime

      Like I said, this is one hell of a bull market! And we wait for maybe a triple or quadruple, that is one heck of a joke. WOW, what a return from a 3X ETF in a bull market. Whatever.

  11. Nada

    We will see if it holds for a bit, but the low on Oct 6th was 1262.8 and our low so far today is 1263.2 on Gold futures. The interesting thing, the low in xauusd (spot) was 1260.80 and it bounced exactly on 1260.8.

      1. Anthonyo

        I bet we gonna get it too….we need a flushing out, 1987 style to refresh.
        take your pick:

        Fed Hawkish surprise? (half a point hike?)
        Mueller surprise? impeachment chatter.
        Tax plan blockage
        Iran war
        N Korea surprise
        Avi Gilburt choking on a chicken bone

        the list goes on…

      1. Nada

        Well its refreshing to see some selling. You think this is a drop into a HCL or do you think the possibility exists we could get a DCL or maybe early ICL?

        and I know you though the Avi Gilburt choking on a chicken bone was funny 🙂

        1. Gary Post author

          I covered it in detail in the video.

          The Nasdaq is moving into a DCL. The SPX a HCL.

          The two indexes should realign at the next ICL in January or February.

          1. Robert

            How about a gold video? U havent done one in a while. I see alot of people are still bullish and most are expecting a bottom around the 1240-50 level then back to 1300. The drops on gold have not been strong just mild down days with equally or stronger short covering spikes

          2. Gary Post author

            It’s usually not a good idea to bet against the odds. The odds are that gold will complete at least one failed daily cycle. Despite what everyone kept predicting it looks like gold will confirm the odds and do what I’ve been telling everyone it would do.

            If it does then the intermediate cycle becomes left translated. You know what the odds say about that.

  12. primetime

    Tim Knight’s take on investing.com:
    Now in the seventh year of its own BEAR market, gold remains a complete piece of junk, as trendlines break and gold bugs pull out their hair looking at Bitcoin charts.
    He goes on to say of course miners follow in sympathy. What a joke this so-called PM bull market is!

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s just building a base.

      I’ve tried and tried to get people to focus on the stock market for now and give the metals a break while they finish the basing process.

      I give people priceless information on the blog for free. Information that one could use to make a lot of money, but hardly anyone ever listens… they just keep repeating the same mistakes over and over.

      1. Clarence

        Sadly I am one of those people (even worse, I pay).

        Initially the bottom in gold was looking at October, then it went to November and now hopefully we are days away from the finale bloodbath.

        That basing phase kept stretching out and kept me on hold. With it always being a few weeks away, I chose to keep my powder dry. Nothing gained, nothing lost. Nothing invested yet, all cash.

      2. Cybo33

        Gary I can’t thank you enough for your up dates on the stock market. Especially the NASDAQ and QQQ’s. Please keep them coming.

        I am really hoping that we get that run into the FOMC as I am holding an underwater option. A few more good trades and you got me as a sub.

  13. TraderPete

    Gold is not a piece of junk; it is money, plain and simple, and always has been for more than 5,000 years. Everything else is junk debt. Tim Knight is a piece of junk (The POJ Kind). He is up-in-the-night and always will be.

  14. Americano

    Announcement:
    Bitcoin has eclipsed $12,OOO.
    This is annoying because my forecast has consistently been $15K by June & $25K by EOY 2018.
    Regretably, I will amend forecast if need be. While it’s nice to profit financially from Bitcoins price trajectory, it’s emotionally draining to not be “ right “.
    I will try to do better but like everyone else I suppose…..I keep underestimating the honey badger of money.

    1. primetime

      Hey Americano,

      I have listened to all the bitcoin dialogue but have not participated verbally or physically, in terms of purchasing bitcoin. However, I am now convinced I have missed the easiest, greatest investment of a lifetime, bitcoin! Very foolish!

        1. Gary Post author

          LMAO 30-50% drawdowns. Yeah that has been easy money for sure.

          On top of that when the bubble pops almost no one will end up with anything. They will have lost their life savings. The only people that will make anything are the ones that bought under $1000. I dare say no one here is in that boat. Just like everything else in a year from now I’m going to say “I told you so”. But just like always no one ever listens. Control greed or lose it all, it’s that simple.

          We haven’t gotten any smarter since the 1600’s. In fact we may have gotten dumber.

          1. primetime

            Glad I could make you laugh Gary, but it sure has looked pretty darn easy still compared to the measly crap in this SM, Metals, Commodities.

          2. Gary Post author

            Ha with a little leverage we are massively outperforming bitcoin and we don’t have the risk of holding too long and getting caught when the bubble pops.

            Only emotional retail traders or techies would ever buy anything that is 140% above the 200 DMA.

            That’s what bubbles do, they make people stupid. Greed overwhelms all common sense. Trust me this bubble isn’t going to end any different than the tech bubble, or the real estate bubble, or the oil bubble. 90% of all traders will end up losing everything. And bitcoin is going to be even worse because it’s even more volatile. So traders are becoming conditioned to 30-50% drawdowns. It means they will hold on and one of those 50% drawdowns will turn into 80 in the blink of an eye and then it will be lights out for all those people who didn’t control greed.

          3. vin

            Come on Gary! soxl was above 170 and then it came straight down to 130. And, that is a safe investment? A vertically up move?

    2. primetime

      And I wish I could understand and feel your emotional drain from greatly underestimating your forecast. LOL And I will expect you to do much better with future projections.

  15. vin

    bitcoin $12000!!! Cheers!

    One day nasdaq will be 10k. Have faith in Gary and one day all the faithfuls will be rewarded because it is a vertically up market.

    But, don’t indulge in bitcoin game because Gary says that it is very dangerous.

    He says both are bubbles but SM is a safer bubble to make money because he says 10k nasdaq is a piece of cake. When he started suggesting nasdaq bitcoin was less than nasdaq. Now bitcoin is 12k and nasdaq is languishing at 6762, about half. But, then he is sure that bitcoin is a very dangerous game while SM is a safe way to make money. 10k is a piece of cake and 20 is not out of question.

    The scenario is very clear to me. Anyone with doubts? Though I wonder whether nasdaq will reach 10k before or after bitoin reaches 15k, or even 20k? But, then I am new to this game and Gary is very experienced. I follow his advice to make a buck if I can.

      1. vin

        I am not an expert. I am a faithful follower of Gary. That is why I come to this board, to learn.

        I purchased jnug at 44+ (11+ before the 4 to 1 reverse split) because Gary had said that in a bull market all mistakes are corrected and one day jnug will go to $2000 (i.e. 500 before the split) provided one has the conviction to hold. I am faithfully waiting for that time.

        Now I am invested in nasdaq and related securities because Gary has assured us that nasdaq will be 10k by june/july. It will be a piece of cake, and 20k is not out of question.

        So, why would you think that my post was meant to be sarcastic? I am not invested in bitcoin. But then I wish I were. Wouldn’t that had been nice! But, then one should be careful of bubbles as Gary says that no one makes money in a bubble. Though he does think that we are in a SM bubble now. But I guess that is different.

        A confused follower but nevertheless a follower. Or, one could say I am learning on the job. And, by june/july I will have made a bundle.

        1. primetime

          Vin,
          Tonight I have enjoyed your commentary regarding bubbles, Jung, the market etc. Your logical approach to these illogical situations seem very logical to this illogical man. Goodnight and let,s get rich together with one bubble or another.

        2. Gary Post author

          You should have already made a bundle on the stock market. Just since July TQQQ is up over 35%. We are getting in early in the stock market and we are going to control greed. Once the bubble gets mature we’re going to exit and keep our profits instead of riding it too long and losing everything.

          1. Gary Post author

            Hell we’ve made over 300% in two months with a leveraged stock market position. We are massively outperforming bitcoin and we don’t have to worry about being in an asset that’s stretched 140% above the 200 DMA.

            One would have to be insane to buy into those kind of bubble conditions.

        3. z3r-0

          Haha. You’ve described Gary’s logic perfectly. I wish i’d ignored all of Gary’s gold calls last year and just bought bitcoin. It’s the new gold. This is what a market completely untainted by bankers looks like. Gary’s convinced it’s going to pop, but that’s nonsense. We’ve got a long long way to go before that happens.

          1. Gary Post author

            The bitcoin bubble was obvious wasn’t it? Then why didn’t you buy?

            Only you can pull the trigger. It was easy money right?

            If you didn’t buy then it was because you didn’t have the foresight to buy low in real time.

            I’m trying to get people not to make the same mistake with the stock market.

  16. vin

    Goild, how did you do yesterday? Did you make any lunch/wine money? Or, was it just coffee money?

    You need to make the dough when the nasdaq hit 10k in june/july. Or, are you waiting to collect that easy money?

  17. Goild

    Vin,

    I will drink to you health, good humor and for being a faithful follower.

    Yesterday I lost about $750 in the swing account after the 1500 JNUG shares and about $100 in the day trading account.

    Today again I got into the stupid habit of plunging into the falling knife. At some point I had lost about $20K.
    My lost today is $10K.
    I left 10K JNUG shares on the table and so we shall see.
    This is the way things are here.

    I hope you are making good money.
    Good night!

    1. vin

      Oooops. I am sorry to hear that. I was hoping you invite me for a coffee because both Monday and Tuesday weren’t that great for me (that is, in the market). But, then that is a part of the game. Isn’t it?

      Hopefully, you recover your losses and then make some for a nice lunch and some dessert.

      I wish best of luck, my friend.

  18. Americano

    I got into Bitcoin because being a subscriber to Gary allowed me to RECOGNIZE when a do won’t hunt aka JNUG in February this year.
    Correlation was blotto & I had it !
    Theme music would have been “take this job & shove it” by Johnny Paycheck
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EPrSVkTRb24
    I mean……how long ya gonna be a sucker right?
    Went all in March & went OMFG in Sept with retirement on Bitcoin.
    Let’s see what futures do to BTC. I am VERY curious despite my financial interest. If BTC ain’t shorted to Hades it does t prove to me that Bitcoin is tough or a Honeybadger. Ya know what it show?
    This WHOLE time Gold was a scam. Way too much & endless supply for value.
    Can’t wait. If you’re curious too…..ya got a front row seat Dec 18th.

    1. Gary Post author

      Classic! Unsophisticated investor risks everything in the mature stage of a bubble.

      Let me guess. You also lost big in the tech bubble and housing bubble?

      Like I said, most people just keep repeating the same mistakes over and over…

      I had two friends that listened to me and sold their real estate at the top of the bubble. The rest told me I was crazy, real estate never goes down they said.

  19. dboz

    Bitcoin pushing 13000 already. Two weeks ago 9000. As it turns out the fantasy was real, I just had the wrong product. Metals suck in a bear market and Bitcoin rocks in a bull. Bitcoin, seems like we just had a dip to 6000 three weeks, now over 100% up since then. Yeah, you CAN buy the dip in Bitcoin. In a bull market prices go up. In a bear market prices go down. The bottom is falling out of metals……..again. If you are waiting to get your money back from JNUG from 23 last year, you now need a 700% return just to get even. 23 reverse Split 1 for 4 now at 13. So you need 13 to 92 for break even and it can’t even get to 20. I really don’t think any timing mistakes will get corrected in this bear market. Short of nuclear war, Bitcoin has taken over as the safe haven and that is where the money flows. Miners flush is coming next as many are soon going to go out of business. Looks like the market is also on the verge of some degree correction to back test the breakout levels.

    1. faz

      Miners going out of business soon?
      Really ?

      To quote Adam Hamilton’s latest research :

      “[miners] are mining gold at all-in sustaining costs far below prevailing gold prices, which drives fat operating profits. So contrary to their stock prices, the gold miners’ fundamentals are strong and bullish. Once
      gold starts moving decisively higher, investors will flood back into the forsaken gold stocks to catapult their prices far higher. Patience is one of the harder lessons markets teach”

    2. Steffmeister

      BTC will end 1st Jan 2018 (full moon), gold will enter a new bull Nov.2018 – Feb.2019

      We do not want it to be too easy do we 🙂 then it’s no fun, the more pain the greater the relief when she turns around.

  20. mustang sally

    Morning All.
    I keep on forgetting the silver marker. it right now is at 15.70. lines up perfect with gold 1260 gold and 93.60. It appears they will all go with a flush.

    Shortin Sally

    1. Steffmeister

      I can barely hold my horses here 🙂 yyyyiiiieeeeee haaaaaa …

      JNUG sub10, before a turn? I still think we will turn this week, followed by a flatish rally into 2018.
      Then we will turn down again for a final low and a double bottom at 1000ish before the BIG BULL starts, bcos we are still in a golden bear.

      WATCH THE BIG FRACTAL
      (keep saying this for years now)

    1. Gary Post author

      This has never been about valuations. This was and is about the largest period of money printing the world has ever seen. It has to land on something.

    1. Gary Post author

      It really needs to break that trendline. That’s what triggers all the technical traders stops and creates the sentiment extreme that allows the cycle to bottom.

  21. bluelagoon

    SOXL down further as mentioned last Friday. I know Gary was thinking this was a half cycle low for the SM – perhaps it’ll turn on Fri’s jobs report or next week’s Fed. This is a time when mkts are not going in to Fed strong as usual Gary.

    1. Gary Post author

      I suspect you are going to be wrong. They will turn this market around and have it at or near the all-time highs ahead of the FOMC meeting.

      This is a half cycle low for the S&P but a full daily cycle low for the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ is on day 51 so the bottom can occur at any time. But we really should break that trendline in the NASDAQ first.

      Again, the way to make money is to do the opposite of what 95% of traders do. At the cycle lows everyone gets bearish, when they should be getting bullish.

  22. Goild

    This early, after the open, miners drop was not consistent with GOLD +.2% or so.
    So I plunged into JNUG when it was near the low.
    So out of the $10K lost yesterday I trimmed out about $3K.
    Still have the 10K JNUG shares.
    We shall see

    1. vin

      Goild! Looks like time to buy jnug is approaching, fast. Once the anchor of 16 was broken it did come down fast. Didn’t it?

      Still not brave enough to buy yet but I a summoning courage to jump in. 8 would be great. Even below 10 wud be nice. But, then I am not that rigid either way. Will wait for the market to decide.

    1. Nada

      Come on MS, the last thing you need to be doing is gloating about mable markers. We all remember what happened before you went into hiding due to the bad calls.

      1. mustang sally

        Nada:
        Go back to all my posts around Aug 10. I said that since August it was noise and it was, there was no hiding as I clearly stated that it I would be back, and you call it a bad call I did not sell did I ,
        So I will gloat like everyone else on this board , including you so cut the shit my dear.
        thats why the online bingo will separate the yappers

        MS

  23. allthatglitters

    thinking of selling the JDST @ $74.20 and flipping to JNUG @ $12.70. Not sure though, everyone and their dog says gold is going lower, hmmmm……

    1. vin

      Goild! Looks like time to buy jnug is approaching, fast. Once the anchor of 16 was broken it did come down fast. Didn’t it?

      Still not brave enough to buy yet but I a summoning courage to jump in. 8 would be great. Even below 10 wud be nice. But, then I am not that rigid either way. Will wait for the market to decide.

  24. mustang sally

    Nada:
    Go back to all my posts around Aug 10. I said that since August it was noise and it was, there was no hiding as I clearly stated that it I would be back, and you call it a bad call I did not sell did I ,
    So I will gloat like everyone else on this board , including you so cut the shit my dear.
    thats why the online bingo will separate the yappers

    MS

    1. Nada

      Morning MS. I know how to scroll so make no worries, I will find your comments. No need to post multiple times. Now in regard to your “I did not sell”; Nonsense. You didn’t sell because it is a paper account. At the time, you kept talking about how gold was going much much lower, when in fact it was coming OUT of the ICL and it rallied all the way to 1360ish.

      I could care less if you made a bad call, we all do. My point is, you are the last person that should be gloating after you crawled back under your rock when the trade didn’t do your way. Remember how Gary was going to have to goto church? LOL. Basically you said a bunch of shit that didn’t happen and instead of saying, I made a bad call, you slipped back under your bridge and waited until it was safe to come back out.

      1. mustang sally

        Nada> In what way did the trade not go my way. as Gary calls it an undercut, if you put all the markers on a chart you will see that they were all at pivots, and they can go above and below a little as they did. If I did not state in my previous postings what it was then you can call it hiding .

        I have not found a trader in my life time that can pick to the exact point. The markers are very relevent as the market pattern moves back in a downtrend.trend.

        Shortin Sally

    1. isavage

      Because Goild, they are going to keep stamping down on the PM’s throat until they are next to dead to cover all those Commercial short positions!

      waiting for the Hammer candle sometime soon – freaking hope so 🙂

      Averaged in some more JNUG today & need 80+ on JDST to close that out at profit – almost there 😉 also 1st position in USLV as just hitting my monthly resistance line.

  25. allthatglitters

    Yep, bought JDST @ $63-ish then promptly weathered a drawdown to the $40’s, holding all through now. I guess i have a strong stomach. Can’t help but think JNUG will have a decent relief rally when they announce the more-than-priced-in rate hike…. The chance of the fed hiking 50 points is zilcho.

  26. isavage

    PHANTOM POWER BAR ALERT on GBTC

    Investing.com shows phantom power bar to zero on GBTC !! sometimes these bars actually for tell a move.

    just saying! it will make Gary very happy for sure Hahaha

  27. Gary Post author

    The NDX has bounced twice off the cycle uptrend line. Now that we are in the bubble phase we may not get the usual break of the trend line.

    Either way at day 51 we are very close to the cycle bottom.

  28. ted

    I am 1000% sure that BitCoin will blow every investment away, and the cryptos are definitely NOT in a bubble. Gary will be SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO wrong about this one!

    1. Gary Post author

      No he will not.

      By this time next year anyone that ignored me will have lost everything in the crypto market.

      Those that listened and got in early in the stock bubble will have made a lot of money. If they are willing to use some leverage they will massively outperform bitcoin. And more importantly if they are able to control greed and sell when it starts getting dangerous they will keep their gains and will be able to put them into the next bubble (gold).

      1. Gary Post author

        Most people are simply too ignorant or too lost in greed to even run the numbers.

        Let’s say you bought at $10000. If bitcoin goes to 20,000 you’ve made… 100%.

        On the other hand let’s say you get into the stock bubble early and just hold till we hit 10,000, By using some leverage one can turn that into many many hundreds of percent and you don’t have the worry of buying too late in the bubble and getting caught when it pops.

  29. vin

    bitcoin at 13k!

    Gary says that it is very risky while SM is a safe investment. And, one can perform much better with SM with leverage.

    Very logical. Isn’t it?

    So, I am invested is SM derivatives.

    1. Gary Post author

      Just make sure you buy plenty of time so you can hang on through the inevitable swings.

      I suspect the single best trade we will make is the Quest trade. It’s already up 300% in just a little over 2 months.

      1. lobster

        I am a subscriber and can vouch that you amazing work but I have to update your math on this one. The Quest trade was to buy *****. You did well to buy them at $.42. Today the last sell price was $1.30. Therefore your options are currently up by 3.1x or 210% (not 300%). If you use the last bid price on those options of $1.18, then you would be up 2.8x or 180%. This is still excellent of course but it is not yet 300%.

        Lobster

  30. Gary Post author

    Bitcoin is in the 8th or 9th inning of it’s bubble.

    The stock market is in the first or second inning.

    You can figure out which one has less risk.

    And gold hasn’t even begun it’s bubble phase yet. It’s still trying to finish the basing phase. The longer this lasts the bigger the move will be once it’s finished. It’s already been over a year.

    Remember the miners, especially the juniors, suffered one of the most destructive bear markets in history. The bigger the bear, the bigger the bull will be that follows.

      1. vin

        Come on jacob2! Even to think that one day jnug will go to 2000 (i.e. 500 before the split) makes me feel good. And, then I will be soooo rich.

        So, how can that be “Being early with gold dangerous to your emotional and financial well being.”?

        1. Gary Post author

          Because in real time there are very big bumps and bruises along the way. As we’ve seen there can be an entire year where the sector is stuck in a basing pattern while other assets go up. If you are stuck holding a non performing asset while others are making money very few people can keep their resolve.

          So it’s much easier done in hindsight than in real time.

        1. Gary Post author

          Well not exactly. During strongly trending moves (like during a bubble) there is significant over performance above and beyond 3X.

          From the 2016 seven YCL to today’s price the Q’s have rallied 61%. In theory TQQQ should have rallied 183%. It actually rallied 288%. If we continue the bubble and accelerate TQQQ will deliver more like a 4-6X ETF.

          1. vin

            That is correct. But, remember that if the path is zig-zag one can actually lose money in 3x while the basic market (1x) actually goes up!

            3x are hard to play except while in the vertically up (parabolic) markets which as you know are rare.

            Gary, what is Quest you mentioned in response to one of my posts?

          2. Anthonyo

            Good point Gary, the non-linear multiplying phenomenon during fast melt ups.
            This could render TQQQ to overshoot to 500+ in this scenario.

      1. vin

        Why 15k? Why not 20k. It is almost there. It is almost as distant to 20k as nasdaq is to 10k. And, chances are bitcoin will make it faster. But, then remember that it is a dangerous game as Gary says. That is why I don’t have any. Tooooo timid.

        1. Anthonyo

          15000-17000 then a scary deep bear up to 75% down perhaps……..but it will be a buying oppty then……….Bitcoin is legitimate but not for long term investors.

          1. vin

            Anthonyo, you could turn out to be right. But, at this stage I wouldn’t bet my shirt that it will stop at 15-17k. That is what bubbles are. It is a no-no land. No one knows the limits. It can collapse at 13k or it can easily go to 30k.

            At present the craze doesn’t seem to have reached the limit. If anything it is like wild fire. Looks like 20k a is piece of cake and 30k is doable.

            What is even more interesting is that there is seems to be agreement among the experts as to who really owns this beauty and who is indulging in it. It does not look like young ones with no respect for money. So, the interesting question is who is really behind it. It is now worth more that a quarter trillion! And, it is being sold like a hot cake.

            I can only pray that Gary is wrong and those buying aren’t young men and women using their hard earned money. But, then to think of it, is there any less greed anywhere else? No matter how one slices it, it doesn’t look like it is going to end well no matter what bubble we are in.

  31. Nada

    So Gary, how many folks from the blog, do you think trade bitcoin? My guess is around 1 or 2. Then I would deduct about 50% from that number in regard to who bought more than a year ago. I think its more of the same – people see an asset going to the moon and they want everyone else to believe they were apart of that move and are making tons of money.

    That’s just me, but I see the worst in people – LOL.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t know about the blog but it’s very popular in the general population. We’ve got major magazine covers and TV series revolving around it. Classic mature bubble signs.

      1. vin

        Gary Nada is right. Very few people own this asset. It certainly is the talk of the town but not many people own it. It is being talked about in the offices, elevators, cafeterias, coffee shops and elsewhere. But, not many people own it. I have asked more than 2 dozen people and looks none of them own it. Interestingly most of them are willing to buy it if it crashes below 1000. Lol!

    2. vin

      Looks like you don’t have any. Oooops! I would have though someone of your caliber would have never missed such a life time opportunity.

      But, then probably gold will do better one day and you will post your trades on the board to impress others. How many people do you really impress? Not me. Because I am already impressed with your analytical capabilities.

      “That’s just me, but I see the worst in people – LOL.” … No comments but please educate us with fancy charts as to when is the best time to invest in SM and metals because obviously you have no clue about bitcoin.

      1. Nada

        Vin I am not sure if you are talking to me or Gary in regard to bitcoin. I have said many times in the past that I am not involved with the asset. Maybe when bitcoin futures arrive, but I can’t imagine what the margin requirements will be like.

        As far as gold goes, has potential to bounce here off the double bottom from the Oct low. I would prefer for it to produce a failed cycle and get the show on the road. I still believe late Jan for the ICL, but I am tired of guessing, the asset is boring me to death.

  32. Gary Post author

    Logically speaking when is a bubble the most dangerous? Near the end of course when price is moving upwards the fastest and emotions are the most complacent.

    When is a bubble the least risky? At the beginning of course before anyone believes it is a bubble. When everyone is still expecting a crash.

    The problem is that most human beings are incapable of thinking logically.

    1. vin

      Gary, let me say that logically thinking persons rarely make money in the market be it scientists, accountants, engineers (in fact they are the worst), doctors, scientists or lawyers.

      1. Gary Post author

        Exactly. People that can think logically in their chosen profession are unable to behave rationally when it comes to money. It takes a special kind of person to be able to control ones emotions.

        Those are the kind of people that are good at things like poker.

  33. faz

    On Gold.. John Rubino here talks about how apparently the expected behaviour relating to COTs has changed this year.. (I don’t know if this is true).

    “But this year the action – as portrayed in the commitment of traders report (COT) – has departed from the script”

    I’ll try put a nice link this way, to see if that works.

    Else you can use this:
    https://www.howestreet.com/2017/12/05/more-strange-and-disturbing-action-in-the-paper-gold-market/

    1. Gary Post author

      “the global financial system has become so fragile”

      I have to laugh at these often repeated claims that the financial system is on the verge of imploding. Apparently none of these people have bothered to even look at the financial system. It’s awash in free money (QE).

    1. Gary Post author

      A drastic change in character often occurs right before the top. Look at the last couple of weeks in gold prior to the 2011 top.

      If there was some way to short bitcoin I would be ready to take that position soon. If only one could buy put options. The amount of money one would make when the bubble pops will be staggering.

      1. isavage

        Hahah – Gary don’t play games with us – just sell short GBTC as i have in the past with Interactive Brokers. i made good money being long & short GBTC this year, only once in the challange & that time got shaken out just before the moonshot as it was not tracking BTC price, but then played catch up.

        Dont forget to post your trade real time entry & exit for us all if your really a bear ! same for every other none BTC believer.

  34. mustang sally

    Hey Nada, Gold must be frustrating you because it is not it your direction, it looks like all the markers are going to get busted tonight or tomorrow 93.30, 1160, and silver 15.70 dust got busted today. If they all go you will get your bloodletting Gary, but I got a feeling its going to be a disaster.

    Shortin Sally

      1. mustang sally

        Nada: There is no chop the miners have been going down, no hiding Nada, my post are all there. so give it a rest. If I did not post my intention then you have every right to be on me.

        MS

        1. Nada

          MS are you going to pretend that your previous statements were accurate calls? Come on now. That’s like me disappearing and then poping up close to the next ICH and saying I was right all along with my bullish gold calls.

          Doesnt work that way. It’s all about timing. You disappeared when gold went against you and now you pop back up close to the ICL and claim you were right all along. Laughable.

    1. Gary Post author

      5-10 days and we will have our final YCL in gold.

      I’m almost ready to enter my contrarian play. As usual everyone will think I’m crazy and as usual it will be the right move but almost no one will be able to pull the trigger.

        1. isavage

          jacob2 – That’s quiet possible. my call has been for weeks BTC to 15k in time for the start of futures trading. shake out to let the big boys in at discount, ramp it to 25K then whales sell into strength & big slam to around 5K. whales get out with cash from the run up & selling futures on the way down – double money !?!

          So Gary short GBTC as is going down, also because of the premium will get unwound as you there will be competition from the futures with no premium.

          i’m sticking with the bockchain stocks & could join Gary shorting GBTC

          1. Gary Post author

            No no no. Never short a bubble.

            The only valid strategy is to buy put options. That way your risk is limited to the price of the option.

  35. Goild

    Sometimes you got to do what you have to do.
    On the extended session I got rid of 3500 JNUG shares.
    We will see tomorrow with the remaining 6500 shares.
    Must execute stop loss and accept the loss.

    Dday who has not post recently would say, the technicals are not right to be long.
    Gary who is prudent and plays the exhaustion of the system is right as it is better to wait for the ICL and a horrible sentiment.

    How low can it go?

    NUGT is at about $25.32 or $6.33 after diving by 4. Support last year for NUGT was about $5 times 4 is $20 of today NUGT. Since JNUG is NUGT/2 that means JNUG support is at about $10 bucks.

    Today the ETF’s rats, drop GLD while GOLD was UP. RATS, RATS, RATS!

    The sentiment in the miners right now is desolate and fear may tick and we may have a sell-off to have JNUG at $10.00 if not by Friday, then after FOMC. That is when the safe will be broken and the Old Turkeys will pick up the riches of the miners.

    I hope AT who got committed with JNUG at $17,00 is doing well.

    My loss so far is about $11K. I am learning my lesson, I think and willing to change. I do not want to be flipping hamburgers.

    The ANT trading style is very good, so I need to be back to it.

  36. isavage

    Hi Americano – with IB the available stocks for shorting change by the moment, so nothing is guarantied, as will be the interest level charged.

    Just been looking back at my account to be sure. June the 4th to 15th short = a 48% gain & 4 long trades 61% 18% 28% & of course the one i entered the challenge was 2.92% Hahah all via IB

    Was mad once with IB as my order was not filled even with price clearly below my order price with same day hammer reversal shooting on to record highs in the July bottom.

    i agree with everything Gary keeps warning us about being out before the top hence buying dips & selling rips only. However now i wish i had been holding all the way 🙂

  37. Gary Post author

    Trying to trade support and resistance levels on a 3X ETF is a quick way into the poor house. These are derivatives of their underlying asset. So you need to plot support and resistance on the underlying.

    Figure out where support is for GDXJ for JNUG, and GDX for NUGT.

    And miners are basically a derivative of gold. So the first thing you should look at is where support is for gold.

    If gold breaks 1260 then support is going to be all the way down at 1203. That 1260ish level has held for a long time. When it breaks it’s going to trigger a ton of stops causing a hard move down (the bloodbath phase).

  38. mustang sally

    mustang sally
    Nada: Since you don’t want to schroll, here is my post, followed by yours. Is belief in a long trend wrong , it appears I will be right, and you sold your dust and made a bunch of short trades

    August 9, 2017 at 5:45 am

    Mornin Nada: Not sure I agree with you, 93.60 will be the gold killer, short trends are to be played with.
    Long term nothing has changed, we stay in the weeds.

    MS

    Nada
    August 9, 2017 at 5:36 am

    Hey MS, there is no use fighting the trend. Its changed now. I will wait for the DCL before unleashing DUST, but at this juncture we are very close to confirming the ICL. Not confirmed yet, but retail will be chasing gold heavily today.

    1. Nada

      Like in said MS, you bought JDST at the bottom, close to the ICL and rode all the way up to the ICH. This was made possible because it was a paper trade.

      It’s ok that it was a bad trade. We all make them. The gloating that Mabel marker was accurate it what I called laughable.

      So, your calls for sub 1200 gold.. thats “in the books”… my guess is, when gold finds its ICL well before that level, you will disappear once again.

      1. mustang sally

        Nada. I now believe you can read but you don’t comprehend. So now you tell me Mabel Markers are laughable ,they were clearly posted way back 93,60 usd, 10.00 hgd, 29.50 dust , 1260 gold. Please in all your wisdom tell me what numbers are in play right now. So now you belittle the contest as just a paper trade, I guess you must not be close to winning.

        Shortin Sally

        1. Nada

          Hey SM, do tell.. where is your name on the Bingo list? Yes I am telling you.. you made a bad call. Own it. I made one as well, difference is.. I don’t run away and hide, I admit when my calls are bad.

          You bought JDST at the ICL and rode to the ICH. You pop back up, when gold is close to another ICL.. thinking it’s safe to come out again.. and say oh hey Mabel marker was right.. You are forgetting the element of time. You held because it was a paper trade.. we all know this, so stop being obtuse sweets.

  39. Goild

    Indeed Gary, support/resistance in the derivatives hardly has any meaning. Good point.
    I also was thinking of gold.
    The continuation for GOLD might be antisymmetric with respect to the previous weeks.
    Again the channel theory in that gold is in a channel with mean around $1220 since 2013 comes to mind.
    This channel lower trend line is at about $1200-$1220.

    But not, there is another uprising channel which is more credible that puts the lower trend line right now at around $1265. This coincides with hitting the 200 MA.

    We shall see.

    1. Americano

      Vic – you do realize you can buy $5 bucks worth of BTC right?
      Bitcoin is name better thought of though as address ( or addresses) of real estate on the ledger.
      It is FAR more akin to real estate ownership in NYC, SF or Hong Kong as they are pricey, desirable & SCARCE due to being on islands or peninsulas ( BTC 21 million ever limit 17.6 million now).
      Buying Bitcoin can be had for however little USD you wanna throw at it.

  40. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “And don’t forget this will be a left translated intermediate cycle so there is risk gold will drop below the July low before completing its YCL.

    “If gold breaks the July low then this will become the YCL.”

    This is the most sheepish comment I believe I’ve ever read from you, G!

    Recall, I had to ask you 3 or 4 times if you thought July was the YCL or not — you said that it was. I was confused, thinking, “YCL based on what?”

  41. vin

    Goild, glad to hear that you are sold. It doesn’t look pretty. Looks like jnug is getting close to a buy, another 5 dollar drop will do it.

    Good luck and make plenty.

  42. vin

    bitcoin at 15k.

    But don’t buy it because Gary says it is very risky. He would short it if he could.

    Gold is bull.

    And, the best and the safest investment is semis. Gary has assured us 10k nasdaq by june/july. And, then soon after that it could go much higher. 20k is not out of question.

    If you guys are faithful followers like me one day we will all be very rich. Gary says if we leverage we can do even better than bitcoin but don’t invest in bitcoin. It is in a bubble. Right Gary?

    1. Gary Post author

      Of course you will actually need to get a subscription so you can make real time trades, but if you listen to me you will have a lot more money in your account by this time next year. If you listen to 90% of the people commenting on the blog you will have a lot less money in your account by this time next year. If you are stupid enough to buy into the bitcoin bubble this late you will probably have nothing in your account by this time next year.

  43. Gary Post author

    Just like I’ve been warning gold has now signaled a failed daily cycle. Almost all ICL’s in gold will include at least one. The odds now favor a move below the July low….but I think gold is in a triangle basing pattern. It could bottom on the triangle trend line or a little above that level. If it does then it would stop gold from dropping below the July low. That would keep July as the YCL.

    Kind of insignificant in the big picture though. Bottom line: gold is stuck in a basing pattern until the dollar breaks down out of the megaphone top and confirms a new bear market.

    1. Gary Post author

      I just keep getting these calls right over and over but few ever listen.

      I’m going to be correct on bitcoin as well. By this time next year investors will have lost everything in bitcoin.

      Of course almost no one will listen to me on this one either.

      It’s starting to get tiring having to say “I told you so” over and over.

  44. Goild

    The manipulators friends got yesterday the tip that the rug was going to be pulled out further from gold and so they sold GLD and the miners first in the US ahead of today’s GOLD sell-off.

    1. Troy

      Goild,

      I really don’t see manipulation here. Gary has been stressing for weeks not to be in Gold to his subscribers as well as on here. Usually at least 2-3 times a day. It’s no surprise gold broke support here as the miners and silver already had. I would cut your losses before they get larger. JMHO

      Troy

  45. Goild

    Troy,

    Thank you for the lines.
    The point is that it is very unusual to have GLD dropping while GOLD is up. To me someone new ahead of time that a further GOLD drop was going to take place. Even in the late session GLD further dropped.
    Congratulations on your superb performance in the contest!

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold wasn’t up yesterday. GLD follows gold.

      Arbitration keeps price pretty tight. If gold is going up then GLD will be up. If gold is going down then GLD will be down.

  46. Goild

    What I saw yesterday is that gold was up about 0.1% while GLD was down about 1/2%.
    The lesson I gather is that this divergence is a warning that the smart money knows ahead of time.

  47. Roy Batty

    Gary,
    “I just keep getting these calls right over and over but few ever listen.

    I’m going to be correct on bitcoin as well. By this time next year investors will have lost everything in bitcoin.”

    You said there was no doubt the BTC bubble had popped in the middle of September when BTC was at $3,500. I guess you have some doubt now because you are changing the timeline to within the next year. Just trying to deflate that ego a little bit.

      1. Gary Post author

        Timing the top of bubbles is toughhhhh.

        That’s why one can only short them with puts. Risk has to be defined.

        But I’m going to be right on the big picture. Bitcoin is a bubble and by this time next year it will have left behind millions of broken bodies just like every bubble in history.

        1. Roy Batty

          I agree that eventually there’ll be a major regression event … but I believe BTC is here to stay and will remain far above zero. Your prediction is zero right? I bet you a burrito it’s still above 5k in January 2020.

          1. Gary Post author

            Even if it’s here to stay and I doubt it is, governments just aren’t going to allow every Tom Dick and Harry to print their own currency, plus when the crash comes people will start screaming for a rescue. The politicians will probably step in and outlaw it.

            But even if it is viable the pattern for bubbles is a crash proportional to the bubble. Since bitcoin is nearing a historical record and could pass the Tulip bulb mania that would imply the mother of all crashes. Probably 95% or more. Then the pattern would be many many years of going nowhere before a sustained upward trend could resume.

            I’ll bet a burrito that bitcoin will be below $1000 by this time next year.

          2. vin

            Thank you Gary for letting us know what the Govt. is up to. I had started to wonder if the Govt. was a part of this invention.

          1. Gary Post author

            Bitcoin is up 400% since September? That’s news to me. I think it’s more like a little over 100%. As I’ve already explained the Quest is knocking the pants off of bitcoins returns.

          2. vin

            Gary you started bashing it when it was less than 3500 (see Roy’s original comment). And, today it traded as high as 16661! Right now it is at 15255.88

          3. Gary Post author

            The high in early Sept was about $5000 so lets call it 200% but that doesn’t change the fact that the Quest is still going to outperform bitcoin. In fact before the stock bubble is done a leveraged position in the stock bubble will be so far ahead of anything that bitcoin could do that bitcoin won’t even be in the same city, much less the same ball park.

            I’m trying to get you into the stock bubble early, but for some reason you seem to want to focus on the bitcoin market that you’ve already missed. Do you want to make the same mistake twice?

        1. Nada

          Crazy move for sure. Doubled in value in less than 3 weeks. Too bad you can’t trade options with this thing. Like Gary mentioned, defining risk with puts would be one hell of of an option (no pun intended).

      1. vin

        Gary says it is going to collapse. Maybe the collapse has started, Or, may be it will go to 100,000 before the real collapse occurs.

        But, I had mentioned (jokingly) 16661 when someone had suggested a peak of 17000. I am not a smart one so I can’t see the future. I am a follower. I follow smart ones and the marker the smartest of them all.

  48. Roy Batty

    The people, young people, are clamoring to buy it in South Korea as I type. This is a worldwide phenomena and I predict that as the world’s banking and governmental systems become dis-intermediated, governments won’t be able to affectively outlaw cryptos.

    Ok then, double or nothing on the burritos. LOL. 😉

    1. vin

      Roy, even if for a second we believe that it is a scam i.e. a scam in a bubble or what older investors used to call a greater fool theory, it could still go much higher, though no one knows for sure.

      Even under that scenario it is probably be a better bet than double or nothing.

      That is if we are sure that it is a scam. The fact is that no one really knows what it is and who is really behind it. It certainly does not look like a scam. For, one thing a scam worth more than a quarter trillions wouldn’t have escaped scrutiny. Why aren’t governments acting?

      Unfortunately, by the time an ordinary person like me is provided the info. it will be too late, either way.

      I am not “invested” in it but I am not willing to close my eyes to what is happening out there just because I wasn’t smart enough to avail this opportunity.

    1. faz

      Hi Vin

      You’re looking at the old post – theres a new one that everyone else is probly looking at, hence nobody might have noticed your question.

      The Quest is one of Gary’s premium blog trades. It’s intended to risk a small amount for outlandish returns.

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