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GDXJ looks like it is building out a h&s top. Next comes the right shoulder and then down she goes to $30. You have to assume the worst case scenario with this sector.
Miners stuck in the mud for years always being sold off….who is selling at these generational lows?????????????
banker shorting it
AXU another H&S top being built.
Your chart still gives AXU a nice $1.70 sell opportunity. 🙂
Miners/metals sure are pussies…
What takes weeks to go up, lost in hours
Everyone knows the miners are not making any money at these metal prices. Spot must go up so they can have better earnings. Production is down, which should affect price, but it doesn’t. Just put some money in your favorite miners and let it ride…maybe your great, great, great, great, great, great grandkids will have something.
True, and with crypto tokens the world might never need another mine again!
It’s time for the metals to move down into a daily cycle low.
We see this same sentiment every single time a correction occurs.
I’ve done everything short of beating people over the head to get them to focus on the stock market right now.
You really have. I am with you in Market. Thanks.
Optimal do you have a subscription ??
Yes I have a subscription. Worth every penny. Gary is a fine strategist. He works very hard for his subscribers.
Indeed. We have been discussing for weeks now where we stand with the cycle band and posted charts showing this cycle compared with previous ICs. The topping was mild and gave everyone (during market hours) a pleasant spot to exit their leverage trades. Gold moved 130 points and if you did not take profit on such a move, then spare us the cry baby talk.
The usage of profanity on the blog.. shows that once again, DCL’s scare the hell out of everyone. Now the ones that were calling for a continued move higher in gold – disappear.
Gold is barely down. It’s the miners that have been sucking wind for weeks. Back to the drawing board.
You don’t foresee miners coming out of a DCL and making a strong move?
Why wouldn’t they? Sentiment is being reset during the DCL.
Thanks. Have a feeling JNUG will test Dec 17 lows during this DCL.
When the time comes, pms will have their day in the sun.
Has anybody around here actually researched the bloated pigs in the HUI? These companies have been diluting the hell out of their shares and taking on massive loads of debt over the last 15 years. Forget about sentiment. How about just some plain old common sense?
Guessing aside, purely from the trend perspective, sm is the place to be. PMs could be worth a look when dgld approaches around 44.
Nice indirect way of saying you got it right. Anyone scared when investing should really invest less or with nonessential funds. If you remember, several weeks ago when all people were excited, (Farms and et al.) I said give it a month and they will all be jumping ship. So here we are, few have a long term outlook. They over trade for MORSELS,, I am here for the FEAST.
I am sure Gary appreciates you being his mini-me since you know who is gone! ha
@primetime OK, I had to laugh at the mini me comment – mentioning you know who. However, my viewpoint was different than Gary’s – so you can’t lump us in the same boat. First, I was and I am short and Gary was/is not. I was a few days early from the exact top, but I posted the day we hit the high that I added.
Second – I was also thinking the DCL would occur on FOMC day vs Gary thinking the DCH would occur on FOMC. So how exactly do we share the same viewpoint?
With that said, Gary did exit his leverage on the exact day gold hit its high, so hats off to him for calling that for his subscribers.
Metals will pop tomorrow after SOTU tonight and infrastructure focus. We are long CMC and PIRS. Biotech remains strong.
Who is “we”? Was that an attempt at a plug?
Posted this on the previous page, reposting here: I see no reason to panick with miners: the daily RSI 5 for gold and GDX is not yet at or below 30; patience…is a virtue. Gary had been repeating often that DCL within intermediate advances are just that. If you pay attention to the charts, it’s amazing: when you see an ICL higher than the previous one, and you are within the advance of this new intermediate cycle, DCL and RSI 5 just below 30 often coincide, and after that it rises again. I found this beautifully simple and it often works…except when that RSI5 below 30 arrives late in the IC, then it ain’t good. So, let’s see what happens here
I agree with much of what you say. This is a typical Gold move into a DCL. i think we could have our DCL tomorrow after London expiration or fed speak, so 11am or 2 pm. we shall see.
Yes, but I forgot to add that if it’s easy to see the logic on charts, the only problem I have is the difficulty (at least for me) to see when an intermediate cycle begins, and also to estimate its probable duration. I guess that this is where Gary beats us systematically !
Sounds about right.
Looks like they had to halt or circuit breaker Chitcoin futures.
Oops, and here is why:
They must not know there is limited supply! 🙂 Leg 2 of the bitcoin collapse has begun, this is the one that really hurts, as it siphons of all hope.
The bitbomb just keeps dropping.
It´s decentralized, they are stickin´to the man!
Such a huge drop in DOW and gold didn’t even budge.
I believe gold will only budge when dollar budges ! It started down this morning but pulled back a bit; if the drop resumes, gold rises
By in large, miners and silver have looked like garbage relative to gold this daily cycle. Will that change once we’ve bottomed in gold? That’s the question. There is no reason to incur the orders of magnitude higher risk with miners and silver if they underperform or merely keep up with gold.
Stocktwits is looking for more people with inane comments.
You are an ass aren’t you? Why don’t you make some more false posts?
Here’s a chart.
Spanky, your chart looks like a promising pattern to me: an expanding pattern at the beginning of a trend. When expanding’s are showing at the end of a mature trend it is usually a reversal coming; when it’s showing at the beginning of a trend, that is, after a reversal, it usually announces a violent trend beginning. This pattern was discovered by trader Thomas Bulkowski and explained and documented in several of his books. To me, this is extremely bullish for this index
So I would say, if we have the guts, and also based on Gary’s forcast, now (I mean, those days) is the time. That kind of patterns is of course doing a great job to scare most traders of entering
Those are fighting words for most myopic goldbugs. But clear evidence from years of depressing market activity, continual bear market retrenchments over hundreds of companies in the sector and most importantly, owning many of these dreadful outright underwhelming securities tells the story.
How in the hell anyone would try to present a different picture than what is clear to see is beyond me. PM stocks may have their day eventually but will any of us be alive to see it.
Thank you for the clarification. It is really nice to see you have some bite left behind that daily bark. I was just checking. LOL You dawg, you!
Sure you bet.
waiting on Janet…boring day -some good trade setups for short gold against miners this morning – hope ya’ll doin’ OK 🙂
If we fail to ignite from Jan31 – Feb15 I’ll go into daytrade short gold on pops mode fwiw.
I guess that 1335 (24% retracement) in gold will break during this DCL hunt; potential target for bottom 1317 (38%)? Or even 1302 (50%)?
I would think a retrace of .618 is possible on /GC (1287).
Gary, what is your thought process on the DCL? I was thinking the DCL would occur on FOMC, but I do not believe enough time has passed for that viewpoint to be valid anymore. DCL sometime next week?
Maybe this news will trigger gold to bottom and give a decent pop?
Bitcoin has broken out of it’s pennant to the downside.
I for one, don’t think the first DC has topped yet – we are due for an extreme swing force this quarter IMO.
Although, Technically speaking, taking out the SEP 2017 high in gold faster than we went down (44 days versus 95 days) qualifies as a bull swing signal.
Remember Gary’s fave quote. “Take everything with grain of salt with metals.” Usually there are large upside moves by Banksters before metal turns down for real. It hasn’t occurred yet… So your thesis maybe correct. Time will tell.
I think you might be in a bit of denial there about the daily cycle. The other guy “iyoung something or another” was preaching about a move higher too and now that the hunt for DCL has began, he is no longer present. He told me gold was gong lower when I went long on Dec 12th and he told me going was going higher when I went short before the top. I certainly agree the IC has not topped yet.
Tempted to buy this dip? You might not be after reading this dire prediction
10,000 piece of cake, 20k not out of question!
LOL Hussman has been trying to predict the end of this bull market for 9 years.
We need a buying panic proportional to the selling panic in 2009 before this bull will top.
You should have listened to me when I warned you about bitcoin. Now you are going to watch all of your gains go away then you will watch as you lose all of your initial investment.
Bubbles are always the same. Almost no one is able to control greed and make money off of them.
The Fed and global CBs know it’s game over if this bubble is allowed to pop. The pitchforks and lamp posts will be ready. Therefore, it won’t be allowed to pop.
The only thing in a bubble is the bond market and the central banks will lose control of that.
Try saying something educated.
agree with that
Seriously people…gold hasn’t even closed below the 10 DMA yet. The 10 hasn’t turned down. It hasn’t retraced 23% of the rally yet much less 38% or 50%. It’s too early to expect a DCL.
Do you people ever pay attention to anything I try to teach you? Sigh!
I think a retracement of .618 in /GC will be in order. That should reset sentiment nicely.
LOL Gary, It pains me to hear the same questions day after day. I was one so I feel their pain but come on now guys/girls it’s pretty obvious where to invest your money as of this time frame. STOCKS.
LoL. Yes we need at least 38.2 there is no need to rush it. That said the junior miners have not been performing well. Would u buy options on a DCL or is the x3 ETF ur preferred instrument?
No options in the metals. They are too erratic.
If you want to buy options do it in the stock market.
gld just dips below ma10. It may have to dive deeper for a while to let ma10 decline.
the pm stocks are mostly lower….
Everyone is freaking out on the miners but all that has happened so far is the last two days of the rally have been given back.
So true. You are right, I will probably buy the JNUG instead of options
HA HA HA….Bitcoin Shitcoin
I added to mining positions today – Hecla and FSM.
Pleased to have bought ‘cheaper’ than recent highs, but hadn’t realised people here had pulled back on positions.
I had all the info regarding FOMC top… Do we have an expectation on number of days in a DCL?
I am Old Turkey, so accumulate when I have money rather than look to time markets perfectly. If we deliver a bull run into 2020/21 I will be happy to have bought at these levels.
“All poor entry’s in a bull market are forgiven”
A subscriber here. Just for fun, what do you think of Brandt’s call?
Thanks for your excellent trading service, worth the money every month.
Stocks are in the early stage of a parabolic move. They should have 3 to 4 months still before a top.
Brandt is notoriously bad at timing market moves. Stocks are not going to drop 10-15% anytime soon. Probably not until the bubble pops.
LOL another top call. When these stop and the perma bears start predicting 100,000 DOW that’s when it will be time to get out.
This “could be” the beginning of a more substantial correction…
If this is the beginning of it it could unravel and end up down to Dow 24,700 area and SPX to 2700.
Especially if Fed hikes rate unexpectedly …
But today clearly, they are staging this to embarrass Trump tonight in His First State of Union address as well.
They are not going to hike tomorrow, the odds are at 0%. And this had nothing to do with the state of the union and everything with giving the FED cover to stand Ppat on rates even though the market has been going parabolic.
The Fed never needed an alibi before to stay pat on rates?
The market was never starting to go parabolic before.
What has the most potential TQQQ or JNUG?
The stock market is going to be much easier to trade because we are into a bubble phase. Gold is going to be difficult because it’s still very early in a new bull market but the baby bull phase is already over.
DCL Checklist – GDX has broken below the trendline, closed below the 10DMA, 10DMA has turned down – 5day RSI not yet oversold – so just waiting on that one. We are already at the 38% Fib so perhaps we’ll get to 50% or 61.8% before this DCL is over.
NOTE: USO also closed below the 10DMA, has broken the trendline and 10DMA starting to turn down. It’s already hitting the 23.6 Fib AH, waiting for it to hit the 38.2. Question is will this be another DCL or will it be the ICL – finally?
NOTE: USO also closed below the 10DMA, has broken the trendline and 10DMA starting to turn down. It’s already hitting the 23.6 Fib AH, waiting for it to hit the 38.2. Question is will this be another DCL or will it be the ICL – finally?
“Seriously people.. gold hasn’t even closed below the 10 DMA yet.. Do you people ever pay attention to anything I try to teach you? Sigh!”
LOL! Your Patience is unparalleled Gary — I give you that 🙂
OIL SHORTS — Kudos for those of you who had the Cojones to hang tight.. OIL has closed below the 10DMA/EMA and the tide is changing!
ALOHA from the Big Island 🙂
Congrats Christian. I told everyone you never lose money in the markets — Your nuts were squeezed for weeks and yet you never whimpered! Says a lot about you 🙂
Still hanging onto dwt. Missed getting more at the low last week- was in Mexico! Big Island is awesome too – love the coffee plantation there. What’s your target for crude Christian?
The February flop in the SM arrived early. “Skate to where the puck is going not to where it has been”. Cash
It’s extremely risky to be in cash during a bubble phase. The market can turn around and leave you in the dust in the blink of an eye.
We take our chances. Perhaps, the bubble is still down the road and around the bend.
love the Wayne Gretzky quote. applies to stocks as well….who knew. LOL
I have to laugh at gold bugs. It doesn’t matter how good things are they can always find something to complain about. I would be willing to bet less than 1% of 1% will be able to hold Old Turkey and make it to JNUG $500.
Gary… how old r u??
old turkey may be too much if we re old….
If you are planning on kicking the bucket in the next 4-5 months then you should definitely stay focused on the bubble phase in stocks.
Gold is probably going to take 3-4 years still before it reaches its bubble phase.
Maybe QQQ options will do well if stocks go parabolic
I will offer alternative advice. If you think you will kick the bucket in the next 4 or 5 months, go see a doctor!!
This is now bordering on the absurd. I think just about everyone realizes by now that Marty is writing all of these questions himself. He’s answering his own questions and faking compliments to sell subscriptions. And to say he does any of this for free is a complete joke. This seems to be about the standard fee for all of his reports.
Socrates is either so vague or has so many conflicting signals that it’s basically useless for trading, or it’s just flat out wrong most of the time. Yet he makes it sound like he’s programmed a crystal ball.
What a joke.
Another Guru… Scam and blind believer are everywhere including the market. There is religion guru, food guru, flat earth guru, armstrong and more…
No idea how shallow or deep the pull back is going to be in nas. AMZN is already powering up. Until the fangs and nvda, etc. levitate to ridiculous levels followed by splits, it is not a bad idea to stay with nas.
“Everyone is freaking out on the miners but all that has happened so far is the last two days of the rally have been given back”
I think what some folks are alluding to is the fact that only a small, select group of miners have preformed and many have regressed way below their levels during the baby bull.
It’s not just a small handful or a few isolated miners — there is a fairly sizable Bloc of them that are completely underperforming, even though gold is at the threshold of taking out the baby bull high
Even jnug has done badly. It had gone above 20 and now it is blow 16.
I agree with your observation, the question is does one want to buy once miners are already outperforming, or when they are already in the dumps?
ted, I just saw btc below 10k! Do you think it is a buying opportunity of a lifetime? headed to 40k in a few months? Or, is it kaput now?
As you had predicted so many times, finally miners aren’t doing well. Do you think this is THE last “top”? Or, should we expect another one in a couple of weeks?
Longing to hear your wise words! Please guide us.
“The market will either scare everyone, or run away to the upside. ”
This is what passes as analysis. Armstrong has covered both bases and will claim he predicted the market no matter what happens.
Instead of covering my ass I’m going to tell you the market IS going to run away to the upside (I’ve been telling you this for the last two years). Buy dips. As I said in the video, markets are working their way down into a cycle low. Once it’s finished the rally will become even more aggressive.
10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.
The FOMC statement today should break the dollar out of the flag it’s been in. If it triggers a dollar rally then gold will continue down into its DCL. If it triggers a final bloodbath phase in the dollar then gold will make a final push to test the baby bull high before starting the real DCL.
It’s too late in the cycle to be leveraged. And either way the risk is too great that the intermediate cycle in the dollar is close to a more significant bottom to keep pushing leverage in the metals.
There is again risk of a short cycle in gold if the dollar forms an ICL soon.
Great. Back to the drawing board for the miners if we get another short cycle. I assume some of them, like the underperforming silver miners, are going to get utterly smashed if silver so much as hints at breaking down from here.
I still like the CRB:Dow ratio.. commodities are generationally cheap.. even more so that 1999-2000. Commodities could be revalued x10 higher vs stocks and it would only represent a return to the long-term mean.
It is odd that we are in an Everything Bubble, except commodities. I think they should be a good bet, as long as you can wait awhile for them to pay out.
Commodities will be basing for years to come. While we will get the occasional large pop, they will come right back down. The CBs have done an absolute number on the complex, technically and fundamentally (commodity producers with debt have to actually increase production at depressed prices to make their covenants). In the meantime, the stock market is headed to Uranus.
Another infantile comment with nothing to back it up.
Take a look at the monthly chart for the $CRB dumbass. The major LT MAs are bearishly aligned and fully separated from each other for the first time in 40+ years. There is a shit ton of damage that needs to be repaired. And that is going to take years.
The CRB hasn’t even managed to tag the rapidly declining 50 month MA yet.
You made my point as to worthless moving averages
If you think price is just going to rocket through declining 50, 100 and 200 month MAs and then not have to backtest most of them, you are a bigger idiot than I thought.
infantile is how you come across… making that remark
Dollar gonna bounce short-term. Support here includes the 200 monthly moving average,
61.8% fib retracement of the entire 2014-2016 rally, and
previous highs from 2009 and 2010. No whining when PM’s get hit, folks.
The key resistance IMO is the bear market trend line in the euro. I doubt price will go through that without first having an intermediate degree pullback. When the euro tops the dollar will bottom and deliver the next dead cat bounce.
Let us see what today brings.
FED minutes at 2:00 PM.
Be prepared for the spikes.
you say this is a buying opportunity in the stocks, and that the FED is likely to permit an ICL in stocks, and that the ICL would be mild. Don’t you think i we can at least correct another 100 points in the S&P so that it tags its 50DMA? in the past ICL’s have tagged the 50… I highly doubt that all we get is a 2 day correction for an ICL
I’m not at all certain cycles will work during a parabolic phase.
My main tool during this phase is the McClellan oscillator. When it gets oversold it’s usually time for the next rally.
So far this morning it’s looking like the reports of the markets demise were greatly exaggerated.
Like I said: people will keep trying to pick a top every other day all the way up. Once this behavior stops and the ROBO ratio gets, and stays extreme for several months then we’ll have a spot for a potential major top.
The advance decline line and banks should diverge for several months as well at a final top.
wow, recovery in tqqq so quickly. That is what sets a strong sector apart from a weak one? jnug just experiencing an os bounce. Pms will have their day in the sun when the time comes.
Teddy´s beloved GBTC caught a flat tire without chitcoin dropping much today, yet. Nice call, paying up 50% over NAV is always a winning strategy!
Next stop, $9.50 down there on the 200 MA. At least it´s only 43% lower than today´s already deflated price.
Potential spot for a brief rest.
If price breaks through these levels quickly then look out above.
Gold is steady and miners are bouncing back. Wahey! 🙂
Just be prepared to sell this sector when the euro hits that trend line.
Good advice. Thanks! …but I am actually doing as you suggested. Holding old turkey. I only have 20% of my portfolio invested in metals. I’m not worried. I’m waiting for that JNUG to hit 400$!
And all of this can reverse on a dime the instant the FOMC announcement is made. You just can’t put much into the action immediately before and after the FOMC. History is riddled with whipsaws and fakeouts on these days in the metals.
The relevant moving averages for gold. New bull market.
I just want the silver miners (use SILJ as a proxy) to start making higher highs after an 18 month series of lower highs. Yes, I know that they had an incredible rally in 2016, but a lot of damage has been inflicted on this sector in particular since then. Some silver juniors are down 50-90% from the 2016 peak.
I have been a buyer of SILJ, prefer this etf for that reason, many individual miners have gotten killed much worse, plus I don´t worry about company specific news.
I do have some individual ones as well, like SVBL, and some gold miners. I´m not worried about the Fed and am prepared for a temporary smackdown, as it seems to me that now is a perfect time to leave bulls behind. They have already booked profits and are looking to buy a pullback, easier said than done.
Gary, this chart doesn’t tell me that gold should be sold. It tells me that gold should be bought.
It’s a timing thing. Longer term, gold is in a new bull market. Shorter term, it likely pauses for a while while the USD has a bounce before resuming its downtrend.
Shorter term? Monthly? Weekly? Daily? Hourly? Or, are we talking about minutes?
My own opinion…the pause/retracement period will be measured in weeks. The positive period in gold following the pause/retracement will be measured in months.
JNUG did not respond very well to today’s GOLD move up.
Now it is falling.
Perhaps the MARKET already knows that GOLD will fall at 2:00 PM…
I show JNUG up 4%.
Big decision coming out of India tomorrow on excise duty cut on Gold, if positive – it will give a nice pop. Don’t like leverage though like Gary said. I’m invested in a couple of cheapies like VGZ Marathon Gold – they provide excellent leverage without being leveraged on JNUG.
January 31, 2018 at 8:03 am
If you think price is just going to rocket through declining 50, 100 and 200 month MAs and then not have to backtest most of them, you are a bigger idiot than I thought.”
Hey dumbass, do you know the difference between a daily chart and a monthly chart?
The thing is that a move of gold of 1% is about 10% done for JNUG.
GOLD has fallen relatively very little from the previous peak, but JNUG is about 20% way too punished.
JNUG does not follow GOLD going up with the same % as when it drops. This shows perhaps weakness.
????? What is the logic behind this maths?
Accumulation drives markets.
Not moving averages.
Crude oil 23% of the CRB which moves opposite of bond prices.
Some people can just not identify an uptrend.
The last chart of Gary here above is great because simple (and of course it’s big picture, nothing to do with the current DCL in the making): whenI look back to the left, the last time MA100 crossed above MA200, the market churned higher for 2-3 years, with lots of forward/backwards then finally jumped ahead with no look back. If the current cross, who occured mid-2017, tells the same story, then Gold will gently and softly move higher for another 2 years, no bubble and parabolic before 2020. Clear picture to me, and I won’t be a JNUG old turkey, but might try to get in gold futures at the end of an ICL in a few months, and hold.
Hope you are doing very well in this business. I think so.
I do not know, it is what I see.
Goild, am doing great. I have started to follow Gary. Though I don’t always listen to him and just like you I am stuck with some jnug. But, I can’t complain as I have been in and out of jnug a couple of times. So, far it has bee nice to me.
Make lots of money and enjoy a good lunch with some nice wine. In Paris? Or, may be Amsterdam?
goild…you realize JNUG doesn’t follow GOLD but GDXJ.
Accumulation energizes markets.
Don’t short an uptrend.
This summer will be in Switzerland.
You should come!
Yes, JNUG depends on GDXJ and on speculation.
In turn GDXJ depends on GOLD.
Sold most of my JNUG shares and took a $20K reduction in profit.
Leaving 3.5K JNUG shares on the table.
Have now 4K GDX shares long term.
No UVXY shares.
There will be a second opportunity to buy UVXY cheap.
“Sold most of my JNUG shares and took a $20K reduction in profit.” I like how you put that, Goild. Yes the hunt for the DCL might have been very painful and if the dollar is coming out of an ICL, then who knows what is in store for gold. Good luck on the recovery of profits.
Does any one have an idea what will happen to GOLD at 2:00 PM?
I am thinking nothing much will happen. They’re not hiking rates and I think it’s already priced in.
Due for a bounce soon in GDX to form a right shoulder. Then what? When have the miners failed to build out and trigger a head shoulders top? That’s all this sector does, IMO.
Are you willing to bet that this time is different?
Sorry, but I don’t see any H&S on your chart; way too early to tell it will be a H&S top; patterns are subjective, especially before they are confirmed. All I can see really here is an expanding formation in the making, and this one is confirmed: a higher high followed by a lower low. Those patterns can be explosive and, in this case, on the upside ! But very difficult to trade…
SIL:SLV H&S triggered and on its way to a re-test or more likely new low by late February or early March.
ok, this one is not GDX but SIL, but still…and really not to be right…but that’s an ugly H&S. We will see where those things go anyway
I hope you are right, but right now it looks like a double top and we are in the process of working our way down to the neckline of what will be a H&S formation. From there, a small bounce for a week or so to form the right shoulder and then its bombs away.
For SIL, yes, that one looks more like a double top but the measured objective down is already reached, so the pattern is “free” 🙂
LoL, doesn’t take long for these forums to devolve into a troll cesspool.
The miners are in their usual turn to shit performance mode. It’s hard to believe they have been in a bull market since early 2016. Seems more like they have been in a bear market since 2011.
Yes, JNUG is quite lazy.
The hope is that one of these days they will ride a rocket.
The good news is that gold did not sink, but recovered.
Thus, there is hope.
lol, PM price action is churning bulls and bears. At least the SM “may” get its ICL.
Oil bears vacationing in Arkansas, were celebrating yesterday. Crickets today.
What a manipulation on gold/miners!!!
It seems that the manipulators brought gold down to have their friend buying it cheap, then they are cranking the price up.
A roller coaster, and one must have the guts well placed.
Spanky, speaking of patterns…my hobby…if you look at GDX chart in daily, you see those 3 close peaks? I forgot the name of the pattern, but usually it resolves by a drop at least to the first trough after the first peak; this is why I posted several days ago that we would probably see GDX retrace down to 23. Not there yet but I think we are close…I will check my pattern bible to see…
Good call. I hope you are right about how this plays out. We have been so conditioned for lower highs and lower lows at this point (silver and the mining stocks).
I’m waiting to hear if Gary has changed his assessment on the stock market and gold after the FOMC meeting?
Good oportunity to sell today. Seen this movie so many times before.
sell what, the stock market? bonds? metals? everything?
He is referring to gold or maybe even everything 🙂 . I assume retail thinks FOMC days are good longs, so I suspect they have their arses handed to them tomorrow. Sound about right Jacob?
we shall see. i am not of that mindset.
Would be amazing if GLD’s DCL was made on the tag of the 20dma today. Unlikely, sure, but we will see.
The buy the dip crowd seems a little slow to get in on the great ‘bargains’ although Boeing, Microsoft, Nvidia and Amazon are obviously attracting billions of fresh money. Maybe this pull back will turn into an actual correction.
hey spanky…feeling better after today’s close in PM’s/miners?
No he does not – gold could move up 200 points in 1 hour and Spanky would not be impressed. Spanky loves the misery gold provides and anything that disrupts that is frowned upon.
With that said, the dollar in my opinion has turned bull. The move up in gold is suspect, but don’t listen to me – I am bias since I am holding shorts, lol.
Believe gold will be up tomorrow at least 10-20 bucks based on India news.
What news did I miss with India?
what India news…Link???
they cut duties..???????
Well sellers didn’t get that memo on “India”. SOS on GLD and miners. But hey that WSJ report is about as reliable as Mustang Sallys nephew’s dollar analysis.
Since when has foreign demand ever caused price moves? As far as I know, Indian farmers aren’t by in large trading GC futures on the Comex. Color me extremely skeptical that the India news means anything.
lol, this is true. I have a slightly negative outlook on life. But ultimately I want to start seeing higher highs and higher lows in my mining stocks (haven’t really seen this in silver or the silver miners in 18 months). That would give me some calm.
You can’t take away much from the action on the day of the Fed. During the bear, we would see gigantic reversals and cycles top in a single day around the FOMC. Also, the dollar being due for a bounce (the yen being at nosebleed levels) and the fact that Gary’s 10 DMA rule for DCs hasn’t been triggered has to give one some pause. In short, as long as GDX doesn’t take out the December low I suppose I have to remain bullish. Also, the fact that price is still clinging to the rising 100 WMA, which crossed above the 200 WMA over 6 months ago, has to be taken as bullish. The 100 WMA is an extremely critical MA in defining a bull market, and so far GDX is still on board.
GLD has broken the 10dma yesterday..does it only need to close below it for one day. I still tend to think gold needs to drop another 30-50 dollars to reset COT reports for next thrust upwards but who knows..gold is a master at deception
A DCL should spend enough time below the 10 DMA to turn the average down. It will usually reach oversold on the 5 day RSI as well.
No signal yet. I can’t even say for sure that the cycle has topped yet.
GDX though has clearly seen its 10DMA turn down..but usually GLD is the leader..
The $XAU has been taking its sweet time over the rising 600 DMA. It’s perfectly conceivable that we test that MA sometime in the next few weeks or even months. It’s also conceivable that price does’t get close to the 600 DMA for another 10 years. A serious break below that rising LT MA would be not so good.
If this turns out to be a true bull market, you will look back on today’s price and wonder why you didn’t mortgage the double wide and buy more.
Spanked – Do you realise that India retail are the largest holders of gold anywhere?
In that, the people of India hold more than 18,000 tons of gold. They drive seasonal movements in gold and a reduction in taxes will most certainly drive price action tomorrow.
Perhaps some research beyond the negativity would make you a more credible commentator.
true, and as I know India population is not getting poorer, so, we should expect gold movement.
meanwhile, cannabis stocks get nice pull back, good entry points…
From S Thomson 321gold this week
The bottom line is that Indian government duty hikes basically nuked Western gold mining stock enthusiasts and put the survivors in a horrifying gulag.
For the past several years, jewellers have begged the government to begin reducing the duty. Unfortunately, the government has shown no interest in announcing even a tiny cut.
Until now. While the commerce department has called for a duty cut for years, this is first time the all-powerful finance department has addressed the issue in a positive way. So, a cut on Thursday is not a “done deal”, but the odds of it happening are now vastly higher than at any time since the import duty peaked at 10% in 2013.
Jewellers and dealers are not buying gold in any size now, because they are anticipating the government will finally give them a cut. That’s created some gold price softness over the past week. I’ve suggested that a duty cut could be the catalyst that blasts gold over the $1370 area highs. In turn, that would usher in the start of a rally to massive resistance at $1500.
For gold, a duty cut in India has truly gargantuan ramifications. It is the equivalent of a corporate tax cut in America. It restores confidence amongst citizens and shows that the government understands not just sticks, but carrots. When citizens feel good they are more productive. GDP grows, bringing the government more tax revenues. Thursday could be a truly epic win-win day for gold and all its global stakeholders. Are investors prepared?
20,000 tons held – but I guess the ‘Indian Farmer’s holding 250% of what the US are reported to hold is small potatoes.
Probably doesn’t fit with your assessment though. The HS formation you are bleating about is probably more relevant.
Hey man, I hope you are right, and I am dead wrong! Would love to see silver shock the world, but I have my doubts for now.
My wife and I spent 33 days in both Goa and Delhi back in 2015. I would say their jewlery shops outnumber the US by 20 to 1. Everywhere you go Gold signs abound —both buying and selling.
gold is their religion…………..
Ha-Ha, I love this comment under the link “In gold we trust, Gold bless India.”
India has the fastest growing middle-class in the world. Outnumbering the entire population of the US. Their mantra –
“Gold is God”
This is all fundamental stuff and this information has been used to pump gold since the highs. However, with a low in gold established, changes in tax law and the removal of high value paper currencies can quickly drive a limited market higher.
Just a view.
I am old turkey – because I can’t make money any other way.
I think the first metals move beginning mid december(wave 1 or A, depending if this is the start of the big move or just another part of the base) actually ended jan 17, followed by a expanded flat correction. if you look at SIL, there was a exact 50% retrace from 33.85 to today’s low, and for GDX there was an exact 38% retrace from the jan 17 high to today’s low. this would imply another wave is beginning now, either Wave 3 or C. I would expect it to be at least nearly as long as the prior up wave, though it could be a bit shorter, or much longer if this is wave 3. The part that doesn’t make sense to me is how far commodities can move now, with the dollar so oversold on a weekly level, and with sentiment for commodities and the dollar so extreme. I therefore favor another nearly equal move now, but that this will not be the big breakout. sentiment would need to be reset and the overbought/oversold conditions alleviated before then.
There was indeed manipulation today.
That gold did not sustain the fall and reversed tells that gold has green FOMC light to keep hiking.
That it fell, to let the miners dive, JNUG at $15.2, was to let friends load shares, and to run stops in the miners. Dammed manipulators! Or should I say wonderful manipulators as we also make money out of the volatility.
If gold were to retrace, no doubt that JNUG will hit again $15.2.
Trading here is quite an amazing happening. Have no idea what the day will bring or how I will react. Or what I am capable of.
Despite my praying to not get into falling knifes, on Monday I truly got caught off guard as I was confident. The price tag for being somehow confident was $18K. Of course it hit my psychology too. And it also had consequences. The price tag for yesterday was $7K.
I had no expectation today other than being careful. In part I was lucky, every single trade I made, or most, about 60 executions, was a win. Today profit is $9.1K.
And yes I got into the falling knife after 2:00 PM. This time to make money.
Thus the loss this week so far is $16K. This is how it is resolving.
Current holdings are: 4K GDX shares. 2.5K JNUG shares.