256 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – GOLD:OIL RATIO

  1. Gary Post author

    Weird. The previous post turned off comments. No idea what that was as I’ve never seen it before.

  2. Gary Post author

    The dollar is forming a bear flag in preparation for a dive to test the September ICL.

    Gold should form a bull flag and then produce the next leg up when the dollar breaks.

  3. Jimsee

    cold weather on time and grains still moribund…intelligence has really been completely lost in the endless sea of ‘free’ fed dollahs.

    I guess starvation will fire up the epigenetic adaptations.

  4. Steffmeister

    A BIG MOVE is imminent. Look out for next week … I am betting on a SMACK but every other analyst out there is bullish Gold.

    I think I was a year and half early with my call for a dollar crash. I borrowed FullGoldenCrown’s chart from Goldtent:


    We got another year before a dollar crash imo. that aligns well with the big fractal in Gold. Right now the right shoulder looks lame, we need a more muscular right shoulder 🙂

    1. Nada

      So you are looking for a move down, during the timing band for a DCL? Nothing Earth shattering there. I do however admire how these dates some throw our “cylic”, “turn dates”, “GV”, etc.. All seem to coincide with market data dates, such as FOMC, NFP, etc.

      1. Steffmeister

        Most traders will be wrongfooted if it happens I guess … both cycles and seasonal traders

        /Steff from SMACKville 😛

          1. Steffmeister

            No far from it, I know what I am talking about. This is just a bearish call for another couple of weeks.

        1. Nada

          Not directed towards you, but a general comment about FOMO. I was listening to an options guy I follow the other night and I had heard this before, but he highlighted the fact that it is more painful for a trader be on the sidelines while a big move is occurring, than it is for the same trader to lose money.

          1. Bluebellkid

            I have gotten to the point where it hurts more to have nice profits and then give it back and hence why I sell quickly. It’s one thing to lose money on a trade because there are no guarantees in this business but to have a really nice profit and then get greedy holding out for more when there are signs that say different and watch those profits evaporate is unacceptable.

          2. Gary Post author

            You don’t have any profits. You’ve never made any real time calls. This is just more Monday morning trading and no one buys this crap anymore.

          3. faz

            Man you guys sometimes almost kill me with laughter. But I will resist the obvious temptation here, just to be nice to poor Steff.

  5. carlvan

    Gold up but miners down, following the smash down in stocks I guess. I will try to add to JNUG position, this is probably a buying opportunity…

      1. carlvan

        Just the opening, first 30 minutes of session – of course the overall trend still hugely up

  6. Gary Post author

    I’ll say this again: Take everything in the metals sector with a grain of salt. It’s one of the most heavily manipulated sectors in the market. The banks often paint the charts to fleece traders and one of those is to drive the sector down so they can accumulate shares cheap while others panic.

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL we are so deep into profits that there’s absolutely no way we could lose money at this point.

      This is why I buy at cycle bottoms instead of waiting until my emotions give me the all clear.

      This is how most people lose money in a rising market. They buy at short term tops and then sell for a loss during a temporary correction. They have the correct trade on but their timing causes them to lose money.

    2. LeilaniFarms

      Which “unwise calls” are you referring to? Gary and his subscribers are well in profit and this is his blog so which “unwise calls” are you referring to?

      I’ve noticed your posts are filled with all kinds of garbage such as a “neighborhood shooting” in your area which you have marked a year ago for a turning point in gold and now you are doing the same thing. SteffMeister, you need to lay off the Kool-Aid..

      You sound like a clown and have lost all credibility with me.

      Folks, if you want to be taken serious in this business, you need to make real-time calls with charts and analysis to CLEARLY back up your trades. You also need to mention entry point, rough time frame, and did I mention, CHARTS to support your view.

      SteffMeister, you have not done that. Oh yea, you say you were 1 1/2 years early on your USD analysis. Guess what, in this business EARLY is WRONG and LATE is WRONG. In this business, when you are WRONG, you lose money. Simple as that.

    3. Nada


      First – I have butted heads with Gary in the past, but mostly due to what I considered walking back statements. After reviewing those posts in detail, I have came to the conclusion that is was more of a misunderstanding than trying to escape previous comments. The last DC was very choppy and it took some real constraint to not get mixed up in all of that.

      I am not sure why you are saying Gary is giving some bad advice here. Since joining, I have taken detailed notes on his cycle theory. He has given some outstanding advice on how markers react in certain phases of the IC. I can get counts by placing a timing band on a chart or from a few cycle guys and where they perceive we are at in the cycle timing bands. That information is good, but the real jewels here is the tidbits on the market behavior. I can chart all day long and project Gartleys, patterns, EW, gann and some others. You know what? None of that BS has really made me money. I have learned a great deal from Gary and at the end of the day, he has made me a much better trader. So for that, I say thank you.

      1. Steffmeister

        I meant Bluebellkid that are back in today close to the top and another guy who entered into JNUG today buying the pullback. It was not directed at Gary.

        Wow the tension here is building up like a balloon with hot air ready to explode …

        1. Nada

          No worries then. Yes I would not be buying here as well. I sold too early, but I will not buy into a HCL or DCL.

  7. carlvan

    An interesting thing from some time now is that gold and stock market seem in synch now, perhaps a sign of a big change coming, such as dollar collapse?

  8. LeilaniFarms

    Looks as though Silver is ready for another breakout to the upside looking at the lower time frames.


    I see there are still quite a few people here still sitting on the sidelines analyzing the shit out of precious metals as well as miners. I see excuses such as “not enough volume” as well as all kinds of technical mumbo jumbo being tossed around here being used to justify missing this last breakout in gold, silver, and miners. It just blows my mind and is actually quite laughable as this happens over and over and over again to retail investors.

    I guess when it comes down to it we need suckers in the market, this is how people on the RIGHT side of the trade make money. My profits are coming from those of you on the WRONG side of the trade so I should be saying Thank You. 🙂

      1. LeilaniFarms

        No, I bought at what I saw was the bottom (12/12) posted my analysis with charts as well as a time frame for my trade.

        I planned my trade and am trading my plan. Bought JNUG on 12/12 @ 12.67 and am up 40%+ profit. I’m going to just sit on the shares as originally planned, not flip-flop along the way, and get out as planned.

        At this point, no matter what happens, I CANNOT lose money on this trade.

  9. Gary Post author

    And there goes 25,000 on the Dow. The big round numbers are no longer presenting any resistance to price.

  10. Steffmeister

    Look at the naive and childish bullish move in Silver Bull and Auriana Res, 100% fake airpumped move imo

    Based on nothing but hot air …

    1. Jim Dandy

      I´m up 59% on SVBL already, and it just hit a new 52 week high. I know you like this stock, you have to decide when to get back in, or miss the entire bull run bc you got fancy last week.

  11. Jim Dandy

    I am seeing low volume on the miners pulling back, and high volume on the miners that are up, like SVBL and SAND. Both hit new 52 week highs today.

    1. Steffmeister

      Ok good luck Jim, this place is overheated. I am leaving for today lets see how things unfold next week.

      If no breakdown early next week then I am wrong.

  12. Jimsee

    got some jnug puts as ins., will sell if they push jnug to 17.5 or so today.

    thinking gap down if it occurs tomorrow could be really thin to buy…

  13. Strike2

    The Perfect Setup
    There is an unfilled gap going back to April 2013 at ~1560 that would serve as a good target for this IC IMO. There really is clear sky once past the 1377.50 baby bull high.
    Gary has been spot on for quite some time but my opinion is that he is not quite bullish enough this cycle.

  14. Goild

    Things to be quite impressed by….

    Gary’s dedication to SMT!

    Wow, pounder the amount of time and effort he puts here.

    Kudos for him!

    1. Troy

      Indeed! But how much can one rock climb anyway. 😉

      I’m impressed how well he handles all the trolls and negative Nellie’s with a cool hand and finesse.

  15. Rhino18

    Just sold my 100 shares of DGAZ at 29.30 I bought on dec 29 for 27.88. I was a day too early buying and I’m probably a day too early selling, but $142 profit is good enough.

  16. palobar

    For the short-term the number to watch was $1307. Today, Gold near futures made a low at $1307.1
    The attempt by the bears to take it down was unsuccessful. There are two more time windows until the end of January.

  17. Jimsee

    *something* changed in the irate complex at the early sep turning point.

    Perhaps someone here knows enough about bonds to help explain?

    Based on the 5/30 spread it appears that the more they raise fedfunds the lower 30yr yields will go – this is either tremendous (ESF lowering RE rates to support housing) or disastrous (recession being created by FED.

      1. palobar

        Hello Jimsee.
        I have 17-18 January and 25-26 January which is close to your date. I think everything depends on whether we take out the Sep’17 high on a monthly basis. If we do that I dont think that Gold will look back. We are 10 years from the major high in 2008. Normally we should see a major high in 2018. The real bull market will begin once we take out that number.

  18. rborna

    What is the likely scenario after testing the Sept highs? i.e., shallow DCL, deeper DCL, then continue to FEB highs?

  19. Gary Post author

    Well it doesn’t appear gold is even going to drop far enough to touch the 10 DMA.

    This is an incredibly strong move out of the ICL.

    So many people are finding ways to f**k it up. Instead of focusing on the big picture they are getting sidetracked by intraday wiggles.

    I warned people not to get cute with a first daily cycle.

    1. alvinheart

      Gary, are you going to try to sell at the top of the first daily cycle or hold through a correction to the next?

    1. AT

      holding JNUG as is moving higher, soon JNUG to be in the 20s 🙂 … Gary’s calls for the last few months are outstanding!

  20. allthatglitters

    Very pleased to finally jump on the JNUG train yesterday @ $17.50 as it’s pulling out of town. Gonna ride this bull as long as I can.

  21. palobar

    Some people are putting too much weight on the ICL stuff. The arrogance and disrespect to those who have a different view have grown too much. Since the all-time high in 2011, there were certain major turning points (highs) where everyone was screaming ”..this is it!..”:
    – Oct’2012
    – Aug’2013
    – Mar’2013
    – July’2017

    With all the respect, please allow me to call this group the perma-bulls. In all of the above cases, they saw Gold in the early phase of the ICL and the market going to $1800-1900:


    1. palobar

      Dont you think that its time to change the language and help stop the tensions? No one is perfect. Everybody does mistakes. We are dealing with probabilities thats why risk mgt is so important. Fighting, insulting will not help anyone here. We can do better as a group together if we respect, exchange constructive views. Tensions will simply make the game even more difficult.

      1. Steffmeister

        palobar you are the one of very few that I respect here. You are right I am a tensioncreator.

        I am out of here, or I will be back next week just to say hello, then maybe in March, for sure at midsummer and end of year.

        Hasta la Vista !

        1. palobar

          I think that everyone deserves a space for his view. This was the nice thing to me about this blog which had gathered people with interesting views. Sometimes with different views, but nevertheless interesting and always respected.

    2. Gary Post author

      We’ve had to wait a long time for the bull to return.

      Now that it has and the basing phase is over it’s time to make some good money.

      …or one can get sidetracked by some meaningless dates.

        1. Gary Post author

          Here’s the thing, I make actual trades in real time. We are already so deep into profits that there’s no way this could turn into a losing trade.

          It’s the difference between real time trading and make believe trading.

  22. Duuuuuude

    My platinum positions are outperforming gold or silver so far this year by a nice margin. I am sure that will change soon, but for my first time trading platinum I am pleased with its performance.

  23. Jimsee

    I hear ya palobar – I do not understand your methods – but there are many fractals of insight in this house fo mirrors IMO that approximate the same results.

    Today hit a high that can result in a 30 point pullback imo – tomorrow morning should be interesting – but the net result is bullish IMO – we already made the turn in JUL 2017 in my work. I show 4 independent dimensions of time on that low that held above 1200 – 5 star rating for me.

    Good luck to all 🙂

    1. palobar

      I agree. There many good ways to time the market. The more we all agree the more important that date should be.

      1. Gary Post author

        I get a block when I click on the link but it looks like it’s a chart of the mining index.

        I don’t know what you want me to explain.

        I’ve been pretty clear, I think the metals completed their basing phase at the December ICL. Gold should break above the September high and the baby bull high during this intermediate cycle.

        Also the dollar will break down from the megaphone top.

  24. Jimsee

    fwiw – even the recently perma-bear armstrong is now saying a break to a major low for gold is unlikely – it held too strong and the euro is not cracking below 100.

    His *best in class* analysis mentions not one word of what should be obvious to a real student of the cycles world in JULY.

  25. palobar

    Meaningless dates?

    In 2017 the most important turning points were:
    – Feb’2017
    – April’2017
    – July’2017
    – Sep’2017,
    -Oct’2017 (low)
    -Oct’2017 (high)
    – Dec’2017

    I have shared well in advance most of these turning points here with the exception of the 27/2 which I emailed it to a small group of traders. The email is available to anyone. This is one of the best market timing approaches on Gold. Anyone who uses the ICL stuff will never give you a date for the next month. They will always point to the FMOC meeting or to somekind of report. Nothing more. I suggest you put a timing challenge where anyone who is interested can pick in advance 2 time windows for the next month. Each time window will be a max of 4 days. Everyone will enjoy it.

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL what good does it do to have a date a month away? You can’t trade it until it arrives.

      That’s the point at which I’m looking for a cycle low and then make a call in real time.

      Get in the challenge and let’s see if you actually make any money. That’s the only proof that is accepted around here anymore.

      1. palobar

        I have congratulated many times those who have achieved nice profits in your challenge. However, not everyone has the time for that. In 2015 I had the ability to do that. My work requires full concentration most likely the same with others. I am not challenging neither your calls neither your results. I think that I have commented possitively many times about that. I wouldn’t be posting comments here if I did not found the blog helpful and interesting at the first place. If I would like to join a challenge, I would do it the right way. There is a world championship on futures about that.

      2. palobar

        If you knew that the particular date was made up of by a number of cycles that defined most of the major highs and lows in Gold since 1869 you would note that date in your trading calendar and be alerted. If then you would have also a critical price, then your chances of taking a good trade would be much higher. The same would apply to any other timing method one would find it working. If you try to a identify a critical time window ahead with the ICL approach, most likely 9/10 times it would be a miss. The big difference comes from the sentiment numbers, not the ICL timing. Without the sentiment report you have no map. That is why, when numbers are not extreme, often you will lay out almost every possible scenario for gold.

        1. Gary Post author

          Let me try this again. Cycles have an expected timing band. Once price enters that timing band then I start looking for an entry into a real-time trade.

          In the case of an intermediate cycle I go down to the next smaller daily cycle. When that daily cycle bottoms the intermediate cycle should bottom along with it. Again this is called real time trading.

          Trying to pick a date several months in advance is just a waste of time. It does nothing to improve actual real time trading.

          Armstrong tries to con people with this strategy with his bullshit arrays. They rarely predict anything and I’ve noticed he alters the arrays after the fact so that they appear to have been highly predictive when in fact they are anything but.

          1. palobar

            That is a nice and well-respected response Gary. The message of today’s discussion should be to bring back the right language or tone everyone used before. I encourage you to make sure that conservations will always be respectful and constructive from now on. We are in the same boat. It is just that I dont have added leverage yet. If Gold smashes the Sep’17 high and it may well do so, I will certainly regret for not having bought lower.

          2. Gary Post author

            This is a common mistake I see many many traders make. They want to wait for a breakout before they are ready to pull the trigger or get aggressive (leverage).

            This is a critical mistake IMO because most breakouts don’t lead to a sustained move. More often than not markets stair step higher (or lower). So buying a breakout just means big money is taking profits into the breakout and once the institutional money is gone then the market will correct.

            Also buying into a breakout means your stop is a hell of a long ways below your buy in price. If you are using leverage you set yourself up for a massive loss with this strategy.

            The correct strategy IMO is to buy, and buy big when you think an ICL has been made. If you buy on a swing your stop is rarely more than 3-5% away. As opposed to 20-40% away if you wait for a breakout.

            This strategy almost always offers one the luxury of having a big cushion when the first correction arrives so you don’t have to panic and sell too soon.

          3. Nada

            I hope you folks are copying and pasting this into your notes, this is the type of advice that I spoke about earlier today.

    2. palobar

      As the administrator, you should always throw the first stone (date). Anyone who feels that a date may have some importance he could simply share it here directly with the rest of the group.

      1. Nada

        Here is my 2 cents. Cycles work. They are not perfect, but if you follow them with guidelines, then you will do better than most. I have spent considerable time learning all sorts of technical analysis – Gann, EW, Gartleys, patterns, fib, blah blah. TA is a bunch of BS, bottom line.

        Don’t get my wrong. There are some useful technicals to observe, but the basics is *ALL* you need – support/resistance and fibs. Bundle that with cycles and strict emotional discipline and you can’t go wrong.

        I have seen dates tossed out on this site left and right and from what I have seen, they have a convenient way of matching important market driven data event days. I personally think its a bunch of BS, just like gann and his “in touch: with the ancients drivel. Gravitational forces from the planets and sun?, give me a f*cking break. The only reason there is any relation is due to people “thinking” it has an impact and those folks participate in the markets. Its all a bunch of BS and if you think the gravity from the moon impacts my mood on when to buy stocks, then I have some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you.

        1. palobar

          Sorry to disappoint you but I have no clue about astrology. Cycles work. I am not going to waste my time to convince you about that. About Gann, it seems that a lot of people out there are making good money by selling material promising unrealistic things.

          1. Nada

            My first statement was “Cycles work” and your response is “Cycles work. I am not going to waste my time to convince you about that”?

            I assume you are talking about “YOUR” super secret cycles vs the ones that are typically discussed on SMT. Yes thanks for not wasting my time, because I have seen enough of your calls to know they are obscure and posted in hindsight. Do I need to bring up the dollar?

          2. palobar

            @Nada, I responded to you about the Dollar in the previous thread. You might have not seen it. I explained that the dollar made a low on the 8th of Sep giving an amazing price and time symmetry which is found only once in a decade. Based on that ‘pattern’ had worked in the past, the mean length was roughly a 9 month move. In the original post, I noted that if the dollar breaks that low, that will be very bearish. Its all about probabilities. I agree that the Dollar has been very disappointing so far despite the rate hikes and the tax reform.

  26. Nada

    Algos bought at the close on GDX and GDXJ. It will not show up on WSJ BOW since they closed green, but here are their numbers

    GDX +123 million
    GDXJ +48 million

  27. jacob2

    Today’s inflationary trifecta, oil, industrial metals and emerging market. Hopefully gold gets a wake up call. If/when the dollar breaks it should be spectacular.

  28. palobar

    I can assure you, that if Gold does not take out the $1362 level , you will be suprised by how easily those analysts you called the big move in gold will change their mind. If Gold, takes out that number I am already prepared. I built my position (physical) over the last 18 months. Will add leverage then.

    1. Nada

      Hmm, the move has been from 1238 to 1324 so far. The BIG move has already happened, while you have been waiting for confirmation. You are going to confuse a DCL with some sort of “huge” drop in gold.

      1. palobar

        Very nice move. But certainly not a BIG move. Since the all-time high Gold had almost 25 moves like this one but it kept falling for 5 years. In the 1980-1999 bear market some of the rallies were near 100%, nevertheless, Gold stayed in a bear market for 19 years. I have been buying physical gold at the lows. I am not confusing anything. Again, look at the major turning points (2012, 2013, 2014,2016). I dont know if you were confused then. I was not. When things get really it wont be very easy to buy gold coins when you want. You will call them and they will tell you ”…sorry we dont have any coins left. Call us at the end of the week…”. I know them. With leverage, I can simply press the enter button. Honestly, what were you thinking looking at your chart when Gold hit exactly $1376? Perhaps a week later? One month later? I went short two hours after that high. So, maybe sometimes I see things you dont undertand. Other times, it could be the other way around. I am not saying I will be right this time. But, surely, many of you you who like to use the ironic tone were wrong many times.

    1. Gary Post author

      I doubt the top of anything is in today other than maybe oil, but I’m still not ready to start any short positions in oil just yet.

      And I’m only talking short term tops. Nothing is even vaguely close to a major top, even oil would only be an intermediate top, and the same with stocks at some point this month. The final bull market top still has a long way to go yet.

      10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question when we get to the really nutty phase of the bubble.

      1. ras

        Oil drillers continue to power up: hal, slb, etc. with steady rise unlike funky pms. Oil sector apparently not affected by dollar bounces to the same degree as volatile pms.

      2. Cybo33

        20,000 is only a little more than a double from here then if the air goes out of that balloon for years – so what.

        Keep it in context then. Its a great but short ride to wherever.

        Got to have more than one or two arrows in your quiver unless you are almost at the end of your road.

  29. Duuuuuude

    When Tom Brady throws an interception, or Adrian Peterson fumbles, or Steph Curry misses a 3, or Jose Altuve strikes out, they step right up the next time like it never happened. The same is true in the trading business. Because your last trade did not work out does not mean you didn’t know what you are doing. Probably 50% of the time you are going to be wrong. It blows my mind the people here that criticize Gary over a bad call he made in 2012 and speak to him as he did not know what he was doing. A rational person cannot take comments like that seriously. Great athletes cannot be great when they are worrying about a bad decision they made, and traders cannot be worried if the market moves in a fashion they did not predict. You will never be a good trader if you are this way. You cannot make any money if you are caught up in the past. Tomorrow will always present a new opportunity.

    1. palobar


      I dont disagree with you. But someone you calls any view outside his world as nonsense, and those who carry that view as idiots or clueless and presents himself as the guy who is always right, then he needs to be reminded and be grounded down to earth again that he was wrong at all the major turning points. We all make mistakes. Those who eventually succeed are those who stand up again on their feet and learn from their mistakes. I am sorry if I hurt your feelings.

      1. Gary Post author

        Let’s clear something up. I think Armstrong is a con man and an idiot. I think people who continue to try and short the stock market are idiots.

        I think people that wait until their emotions give them the all clear to buy are probably fairly poor Traders but I wouldn’t classify them as idiots. I think they are just enslaved to their emotions which unless they are able to break this habit will probably result in subpar returns in this business.

        Oh and I also think anyone buying Bitcoin 240% above its 200-day moving average thinking they are getting a bargain definitely qualify as an idiot.

        Like I’ve said before, you can set your hair on fire and run through a dynamite factory, and you may even survive. But you’re still an idiot. In my opinion buying Bitcoin at these levels is like running through the dynamite factory.

  30. trendyfollower

    Quite the SoS numbers collecting on SPY. They are never a timing tool but tell us the IC top is not too far out.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve been telling people for several weeks now to control greed and unleverage their stock holdings. It’s just too late in the intermediate cycle to have the pedal to the metal right now.

      Actually the sector to have the pedal to the metal is in the … metals. 🙂

  31. palobar

    I dont know why you and others here hate Martin Armstrong so much. I dont have a subsription but one must really be a full to call Armstrong an idiot or often use expressions like ”..there is too much egg in Armstrong’s face…”. This man has dedicated his life to the study of cycles like very few. You can disagree with him but need to accept that he makes available to the public a vast amount of knowledge that cannot be found elsewhere on every field and every period in history. How can you compare your self to him? With the 5-day RSI and the Stochastics? As far as know, he was bearish on Gold all the way down during these bear market while you were breaking your face many times. Last year Gold had a 20% drop. At the beginning and for more than two months you saw gold as being in the early ICL phase. On the Dow, he was bullish from the very beginning in 2009. In 2013 you were still fighting the bull market.


    People will often forget when you have helped them many times. However, they will never forget the moment you are wrong, especially in this business. I am sorry you chose the road of tensions and disrespect. You will never hear any famous trader or analyst who is really good talk like that for the other traders or analysts.

    1. Gary Post author

      On the contrary Armstrong was looking for $5000 gold by 2015 at the top in 2011 and at the bottom in 2015 he was calling for sub $1000 when I had already called the bottom.

      He’s now doing the same thing with the dollar. He’s already missed the top a long time ago and continues to look for a rally.

      He missed the start of the 7 YCL and he was looking for lower prices at the bottom of the 7 YCL.

      If he actually had to make real time trades in the challenge he would almost certainly be in last place or close to it.

      1. Gary Post author

        He’s just like every other newsletter writer. Multiple scenarios, always covering all the bases so he can claim victory no matter what happens.

        Off the top of my head the only other adviser that I know of that actually puts his ass on the line in real time besides me is Surf.

    2. mike trike

      I have followed Gary for more than 5 years now. From 2013 on Gary was looking to catch the bottom of the gold bear market. From my memory he never held a position, he just bought at ICL’s and then sold when he realized the bottom was not in yet. I don’t think he lost any money on PM’s/miners during the last couple of years of the bear market. Don’t bring up options, they are a pure gamble and aren’t suitable for the majority of investors.

      Armstrong was calling for $5000 gold in 2015, the DOW to 32,000 by 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ersOJve_4f4 and at the bottom in 1999 he said:


      “From a Martin Armstrong email to my colleague Chris Powell…

      May 14, 1999

      Dear Chris:

      I understand your frustration that gold has been perhaps the worst investment for the past 20 years. But to argue that it is being manipulated due to large short positions is not justified.

      There is no interest in gold at this time and the central banks are all sellers. After they sell their gold, then we will see a bull market. Once those supplies are gone, no one will be able to lean on that supply and your bull market will begin.

      I hate to tell you, but gold will drop to under $200 before it turns…”

      He missed the bottom in 1999 and in 2015.

      I follow many analysts/Guru’s and experts. IMO Gary is the best and easiest for the average investor to follow to make money. Good luck trying to make money following Avi, Jordan Byrne, Marty and the rest.

      1. palobar

        @Mike trike,

        Is that the best you could find about him? An email from 1999? Common please. Youtube is full of videos where one can go see what his views were on gold, the dollar and the SM over the last years and see whether he was right or wrong.

        I am not judging nor disagreeing that Gary has made money. He argued that he called the bottom in 2015. The truth is that Gary has called the bottom many times in Gold.

        I do agree with what Gary wrote earlier, that there are many newsletter writers or analysts who have no trading experience unlike Gary.

        1. Gary Post author

          I was the one that coined the term “baby bull”.

          Many claim to have called the final bear market bottom, other than me there might be one or two others who actually did call it in real time. Most didn’t make the call until March or April after the sector had already rallied 100%.

          That’s not a bottom call.

        2. mike trike

          Getting in at the bottom is where the leverage is. Marty missed both bottoms in 2000 and in 2015. He was also cocky at both bottoms claiming gold was definitely going lower.

          Gary called the bottom in 2015/2016.

          I also called the bottom, the exact day miners bottomed.


          There were only 49 comments that day, Jan 19, 2016.
          5 of the comments were from me.

          This was before trolls and idiots took over this site.

          1. mike trike

            Here is Rambus on Jan 17, 2016 2 days before the bottom.


            He was calling for GDX to go to 9.78. GDX bottomed 2 days later at 12.40!

            At the bottom of the report, Rambus wrote:

            “Not exactly the best time to be a bull in this disintegrating forsaken sector ”

            Actually Rambus, it was the best time in history to be a bull in this sector.
            Too bad you missed it along with Marty, Jordan, Avi and most of the other experts. Lol.

  32. ocram

    Armstrong for the first time on his end of the year comment is starting to surrender to the fact that the US dollar is not in a bull market (let’s hope this will not signal a change of trend!!!).
    This is what he said:

    “The Dow failed to OPEN above the 2017 Intraday high so we are not yet ready for prime time. This is still a 0ff-Broadway play, but we are getting closer. The dollar still finished neutral so it too is not yet ready for its move higher. Gold closed in a positive position for the end of 2017 confirming the posture in the dollar.”


    1. jacob2

      The Dollar and SM correction. Barron’s ran a Byron Wein big picture 2018 article projecting a SM correction caused by a sky rocketing dollar. This is very encouraging as he is seldom right. A close third to Clive Maund and Martin Armstrong my other favorite contra indicators.

  33. victor

    For many years following you Gary the only things I don’t like when you call someone an idiot, I know you doing it in a meaningless way, I know you’re kind person but some people are sensitive on it. It depends where someone grove up. It would only benefit you if you stop doing it. Just say “Sir Armstrong is wrong” (( :

    1. Gary Post author

      I would call Armstrong an idiot, not because I think he’s dumb, but because I think he’s a con artist. He’s fooled a lot of people into thinking he’s invented a machine that can predict the markets. He has done no such thing. He has invented a very efficient way to separate people from their money though.

      The only reason I pay any attention to him at all is that I think enough people follow him that he can influence markets, especially the metals market when he calls a turn.

      Has anyone noticed that he always posts a gold report right before a turn? He advertises it right on his public blog. If enough people follow then he can cause the turn.

      But his big picture analysis is completely worthless. He often remains on the wrong side of a market for years. Ie. gold and the dollar.

  34. zkotpen


    What is your email address? I would like to read the email you sent out.

    Thanks 🙂

  35. zkotpen

    Nada: “I hope you folks are copying and pasting this into your notes”

    Your icon is copied from somebody else — a double copy of somebody else, I might add… unless you are Shepherd Fairy (unlikely!). My icon is a photo I took and post-processed myself.

    But since you love having somebody to copy, here’s your hero, de Bois Guilbert himself, from his glory year, 2013:


    1. Gary Post author

      I definitely underestimated the power of central banks and the ability for QE to prop up and stretch the multi year cycle. At the time I didn’t think they could alter the multi-year cycles. I was wrong.

      Clearly there isn’t much one can’t accomplish when they have a printing press.

      However we certainly didn’t lose any money trying to short the stock market.

      BTW how many times are you going to keep digging into the past to try and find a wrong call? I’ve made plenty as has everyone. Hence the reason for the challenge. Now we all have to play by the same rules. There’s no harm in getting a call wrong. All that matters is whether one is making money.

      We are clearly making money and by any standard making more than 95% of traders and hedge funds in the world so allow me a few wrong calls from time to time as long as I keep recovering and keep the portfolio’s going generally up.

  36. zkotpen


    Stop talking about the past — “10 years”. Who knows where you were 10 years ago?

    Stick to your IC, DC, and HC in real time, and YC in retro, and you’ll be fine. Don’t look beyond the yearly cycle.

    Otherwise, your calls on who goes to heaven (blue sky) and who goes to hell will leave you bunking with Armstrong!

    But 5 years ago you were callin’ the stock market top in your secular or cyclical bear (non-scientific terms that mean whatever the speaker wants them to mean to serve their social purposes). You went on and on about gold going to $5000 back then, too.


    1. Gary Post author

      Nothing has changed. I still think gold is going to $5000, and probably to $10,000 before this is over. Seriously, we printed something like 12 trillion dollars. There has to be consequences at some point.

      1. Gary Post author

        Again this is why I started the challenge. If you aren’t willing to make real time calls like the rest of us then why should anyone pay any attention to you when you cherry pick only missed trades?

        Why not focus on all the correct trades?

        If you aren’t going to include the winning trades as well then you clearly have an agenda, and it has nothing to do with the truth.

  37. zkotpen


    “BTW how many times are you going to keep digging into the past to try and find a wrong call?”

    As stated above, as soon as you get in the present. When you go claiming superhero status about the past, you can expect somebody to show that you were not. You were the Cleveland Browns of markets in 2013.

    Keep it present, and others will do likewise.

    And 2013 wasn’t a mere “wrong call”. It was like Cleveland Browns saying they won the super bowl. You were dead wrong on stocks, gold, and USD.

    1. Gary Post author

      Seriously dude, what do you think the challenge is if not an “in the present” real time trading record?

      Don’t forget I exited the metals in early January of 2013 so this notion that we got killed is just plain false.

  38. zkotpen


    “Nothing has changed. I still think gold is going to $5000, and probably to $10,000 before this is over. Seriously, we printed something like 12 trillion dollars. There has to be consequences at some point.”

    Once again, keep it in the present. Intermediate, Daily, Half. Yearly in recap, retro mode only. Gold to $5000 is blue sky (heaven). Consequences — I’m guessing that is the hell you alluded to.

    Keep it present, stay out of God-mode.

    You’re not God.

    You’re not even Ivanhoe.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ll say it again. What do you think the challenge is if not a real time trading record?

      I expect gold to go much higher and I’ll make adjustments along the way if something tells me I’m wrong.

      But there is no need to apologize for a long term view. I think everyone needs to have a big picture view.

      If you want to continue to criticize every cherry picked trade then I’m going to require you enter the challenge and play by the same rules as the rest of us. You aren’t going to be allowed target practice in hindsight anymore. If you want to point the finger then you are going to have to put your ass on the line along with the rest of us. Otherwise you are just a troll here with an agenda. And trolls get the boot.

      And don’t give me that BS about charging for the newsletter. I’m not charging anyone with the expectation that I will always be correct. What I’m charging subscribers for is for me to teach you my system that I have found works for me. I will also provide three model portfolios that traders can use as a basic guideline for what my system is calling for. Everyone has to expect I will have losing trades just like everyone else in the history of the world. However, I think a basic understanding of cycles is very important to every trader if they want to become successful. That is what you are paying for when one buys a subscription, not a perfect trading record.

      1. BeachandBiscuits

        Gary, I hope you enjoy engaging with the trolls, so that it energizes you lol.

        I speak from personal experience that your recommendations have been a huge part of me doubling my portfolio in the last 1-2 years, while learning a lot. The trolls (different from people with valid criticisms) need to shut their traps and start their own site and newsletter.

  39. zkotpen

    The chart on the link is exactly the picture that Gary criticizes, the one calling for the stock market to go down, down, down… which has not materialized. It may materialize some day. Who knows?

  40. zkotpen


    “Why not focus on all the correct trades?”

    Great idea! Keep it present and I will, too!

    “If you aren’t going to include the winning trades as well then you clearly have an agenda, and it has nothing to do with the truth.”

    Sorry Gary, I am a scientist, I don’t get all of this and that social strategizing and playing. I just seek to understand phenomena in my area. Your comment above is not only unscientific, it is illogical. That may be how your mind works, but not how mine works.

    Funny thing about being an outlier. Other people always think that you think like they do. People are always projecting their thinking onto me. What they are saying is, “If I said or did what you are saying or doing, that would mean that I’m thinking in a certain way.” But the other person is not saying or doing what I am, and they have no earthly idea how I think.

    That’s what makes me an outlier — not trying to be different. But when those ideas come, they come, and I give them consideration.

    A more normal person, on the very normal hand, someone who is right in the middle of the bell curve of any particular behavior, is constantly measuring themselves and comparing themselves to what they perceive as social norms, and they adjust accordingly — either to support or oppose, according to their bias.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve got news for you, markets aren’t about science, they are about emotions and emotions aren’t often logical. I would even go so far as to say they are mostly illogical.

      If you think you are going to succeed in the markets with a scientific logical strategy you are going to be sadly mistaken.

      The single best advice I can give you is to immediately buy a subscription to sentimentrader and throw your science papers in the trash. They aren’t going to be of any help to you in the markets.

      1. Spanglish Inquisition

        100% agree. I used to make all my trades based on logic and fundamentals and I rarely had the patience to wait till I was right or had too much leverage that blew my account apart. Now That I follow sentiment and bet against my own emotions, I’m doing much better.

  41. primetime

    I would greatly appreciate it in the future if we would not use the Cleveland Browns as a metaphor. We Brown’s fans suffer greatly, with constant heartache and embarrassment. Hell, we have had two winning seasons since we got our stolen team back in 1999. Please understand our combined record the past 3 seasons is 4 wins and 44 losses. Since our glorious return in 1999 we are 88 wins and 216 losses. This averages less than 5 wins per season. We suck and we know it! We own it! However, we are allowed to bitch and moan b/c we live here, but we do not allow others to make fun of our team or city. Trust me, it is a miserable existence and on a financial blog we do not want to hear about our minor league team. OK? LOL

  42. Christian

    Holy crapola Gary! I thought this place had become much ‘friendlier’ since all the bad people had left but you’re causing quite the ruckus, LOL 😂

      1. Clarence

        Gary, you have to ignore his baiting comments. By responding, you are just feeding the troll.

    1. Christian

      Thx Alvin WITH a big heart! I missed the old man and his holier than thou-ness and was thinking of re-subscribing for old time sake 🙂

      Hey Gary, any specials to kick off 2018??

  43. Don

    Anyone notice the interesting candle for XBI today? It came withing a hair of the all time high set back in October and then sold off and closed down on the day. Yes Gary, I know how you feel about shorting the market but a correction would probably hit the Bio’s hard. Also, there is plenty of RSI divergence on the weekly chart so I decided to take a chance and loaded up on LABD.

  44. carlvan

    I will use a favourite expression of Gary “I will say it again” but it bears reminding this: in any forum, financial or not, we should avoid criticizing anyone, especially when this anyone is offering for free some fruits of his numerous analysis all along the year. We should all respect each other here otherwise this forum will not be anymore a place when we can just share what we love, discussions about markets. I will say that those guys constantly attacking Gary want him to be wrong and them to be right, which is exactly the definition of a bad trader, willing to be right against the market instead of making money. I have been a sub of SMT in the past and will certainly again in the future, when I will want a more close advice for my investments/trades. In short, Gary, I think you are too kind with those trolls and, for the sake of maintaining this forum an agreeable place to stay, I would advise you to just throw them off…

    1. Nada

      No need to toss anyone. zkotpen is a teddy bear, he likes to stir the pot time to time is all. No need to all hold hands and sing kumbaya.

      1. Bluebellkid

        I think if Gary would tone down his “everyone but him is a dumb ole retail trader and cant make money in the stock market” there might not be as many “troll” comments.

        1. Bluebellkid

          I’ve followed Gary off and on since 2009 and as he stated earlier on this thread he has made his share of mistakes just like everyone else.

        2. Gary Post author

          Seriously, most retail traders behave emotionally. That’s why they are called the dumb money. When and if they ever learn to control their emotions they become smart money. But categorizing most retail traders as dumb money isn’t being prejudiced, it’s just a fact in this business

          I try to teach people how to move from the dumb money category into the smart money category.

        3. Nada

          @bluebellkid That’s his trademark. He keeps folks interested and generates traffic. Why would he change that? The dropped tidbits are worth any inflated ego.

          1. Jim Dandy

            I agree, and the last thing we need is people trying to throw Gary off when he has a hot streak running!

  45. Rhino18

    Looking at DRIP and or ERY, but I’m wondering if I’m better served to buy JNUG or NUGT. I wonder if 6 weeks from now I will look back and wish I could have bought JNUG in the teens.

  46. Gary Post author

    The dollar is building a flag to allow the 10 day moving average some time to catch up to price. Once it does then the dollar should break down and head for a test of the September low before this daily cycle bottoms.

    Gold is waiting for the breakdown.

  47. Goild

    Good morning,

    JNUG/miners appear to continue being punished.
    They are lagging gold by much.
    Exert caution.

  48. Jim Dandy

    At the open my miners are almost all up. Too soon to tell, but this could be another Friday dip to be bought!

  49. vin

    INDL @ about 108! WOW! It is a real beauty.

    Though both LABU and jnug are down. Let us hope they turn around.

    Have a nice day, everyone.

  50. Americano

    So much chop…..before Plymouth Rock !
    Hoping this weekend will prove that $17K+ is within Bitcoins groove!
    Rhymes help me bide my time…..
    On the Mayflower.

    1. vin

      Good luck Americano.

      How high will it go this year? 40k? 50k? 70k?

      Is it possible that it goes all the way to 100k before the year is over.

      1. Americano

        Thanks vin. I have $50K pegged. But who knows. I was following this time last year & January was tough month ( didn’t pull first large trigger till early March ).
        I do definitely think over $100K by 2020 Halvening when only 900 Bitcoin will be made a day. One or two third world central banks say that they’ll put a pct of reserves in Bitcoin & it’s gonna get real sick real fast.

        1. vin

          And, what are your views on predictions that it will be in hundreds by the end of the year?

          It is so difficult to get any substantial information on this fireworks.

  51. JJHarmen

    The miners are a nervous bunch. Meanwhile, the SM continues ascent with the same old sectors leading the charge, tech and semis. Getting old.

  52. JJHarmen

    Can’t you guys tell that Zkotpen and pedestrian are twin brothers? I love them both because they are consistent.

      1. JJHarmen

        Both provide lengthy in depth analysis and both tend to be wrong most of the time. That’s what I call being “consistent”.

  53. Don

    Natural gas is disappointing a lot of speculative traders. Despite the intense cold weather, NG couldn’t hold on to 3 bucks.

  54. itsinthedna

    Nobody talks about the Lithium market and its bull market trend.

    Long LACDF. Beautiful looking chart, get in before the breakout.

  55. ras

    Periodically, on this blog, we see folks talking about scientific approach. Analysts have tried to apply many techniques to price discovery in the stock market: Fourier series, FFT, expert system methodology, neural networks, fuzzy logic, etc. Regrettably, they work for a while and then stop working because variables are too many. There is always that band of uncertainty or fuzziness, surrounding the manifestation of every outcome.

    Thought uncoloured by emotion is a theoretical abstraction. Emotion lends the impulse to thought and action.

  56. Don

    The time it takes the S&P to go up 10% is getting shorter and shorter. Even on a log scale, the chart is looking like it wants to go vertical.

  57. Don

    I am not saying that I expect the market to go vertical, I am just observing that is how it looks. Charts have a nasty habit of ‘looking’ one way and then doing something completely different.

  58. JJHarmen

    Does anyone have any idea how crypto currencies such as Ripple or Etherium, can be used in transactions for goods or services? I understand that Vitcoin is accepted by many although the transaction times are slow and the fees are high but what value are these other cryptos if they do not gain wide spread acceptance? This crypto craze seems a bit nutty.

    1. Nada

      Different topic, but I heard something confusing that maybe some of the crypto traders can expand on a bit. I might be butchering what this person was trying to convey, but they stated that all transactions for other cryptos must occur through bitcoin first. Meaning that if you wanted to buy litecoin, you could only use bitcoin to make that transaction.

      The problem with that, is that it could take 10 hours for the transaction to complete and during that time the value of litecoin might have changed drastically. He gave a specific example with ripple and said they had to wait for 12 hours before the bitcoin transaction to clear before they could exit their ripple position. Can someone clear this up? What the hell is that about?

      1. Americano

        Nada – doesn’t apply. Trading on exchanges handles that but you have to keep your coins with them. While you usually have to go BTC for most coins – you can now do straight USD to Etherium, Litecoin, and Bitcoincash ( fork of bitcoin but not same doesn’t effect BTC coin level see price diff).
        However for the VAST majority of coins out there – yeah you go BTC first generally. It’s the “reserve currency” of crypto essentially. Just like oil is priced in USD – crypto is priced in Bitcoin always see the whatever coin/BTC pair.
        The secret & why are there so many coins with no use traded? So you can accumulate more Bitcoin. Run ANY poll with crypto traders & they don’t care about price or charts in USD. They only care about Bitcoin price due to the Halvening in 2020.

        1. carlvan

          If you want immediate trading in bitcoin versus another crypto, you need to go to a BTC exchange (not talking about the new futures on BTC here, which indeed only trade bitcoin vs dollar) such as Bittrex: problem with those is that you can’t fund your account in dollar, only in bitcoin!! So you need to go to a bitcoin broker first, such as Coinbase, costs are high. There are alternatives with other exchanges such as Gdax, but then they are so oversaturated that opening an account takes for ever. Let’s face it: all those things are similar to darknet, those technologies are not stable and they can let you donw from one day to another. I wanted to trade bitcoin some months ago but didn’t like that so I just gave up; and in the meantime I realized indeed that this is all Ponzi…just my 2 cents

  59. Americano

    Everyone sees the “price” of Bitcoin on the news. That’s what you get if you are on Exchange like Coinbase etc…
    What are most people TOTALLY unaware of?
    The street price of Bitcoin. Any country in the world you can buy/sell Bitcoin with zero questions in person/mail or email via LocalBitcoins.com. See for yourself in your area how much more Bitcoins go for on the street than on an exchange.
    Wanna have your mind blown?
    See how much volume is moved in Bitcoin EVERYDAY on the street via LocalBitcoins by country & currency. Mindblowing.

    1. Jim Dandy

      I don´t doubt what you say about chitcoin, but one of it matters. Parabolas are to be sold ALWAYS, and certainly not to be bought. Its the rule of markets, and it applies to anything that trades.

  60. JJHarmen

    Nobody really answered my question which was : Other than Bitcoin, what can the other crypto currencies be used for? Can they be used to buy from Amazon? For that matter, does Amazon accept Bitcoin?

    1. Spanglish Inquisition

      There are numerous crypto debit cards which can use hundreds of different cryptos to buy anything you could buy with a normal visa

      1. Jim Dandy

        Could be, but I have yet to see one, or anybody use one, while everybody is speculating in cryptos and getting rich.

    1. Nada

      What does that mean? Well as a comparison, when we were in declining phase of the IC, algos sold DAY after DAY at the close.

      This behavior demonstrates to me that the DC marches on. Speculative mind you.

      1. didier

        As a sidenote, do you know why qqq’s IV rank is quite high but gdx’s IV rank rather low? I don’t understand it. Miners are more volatile.

        1. Spanglish Inquisition

          To be honest, most people on here know absolutely nothing about crypto curencies and will miss out on big gains- Gary included. I doubt it will be Bitcoin that people talk about a year from now though. I’m in a variety of much better crypto coins with more applicable technology.

          Technologies I like include vechain, eos and any of the privacy coins like pivx and Monero and soon to be dash and LTC.

        2. Spanglish Inquisition

          Gold miner IV is at record low which is why buying calls and puts in December otm was a no brainer call. IV will generally swing up from record lows increasing premiums.

        3. Spanglish Inquisition

          Didier, I believe IV is more a measure of demand than ups/downs. As more are traded, IV goes up. No one has been trading miner stocks, thus low IV.

    1. Nada

      Did you post when you bought or were you saving that as a surprise for us? Hindsight trades not accepted. If you did then kindly ignore 🙂

      1. jacob2

        A true trade posted before. Not a brag, the point being, what has been working continues to work, fear a long slog ahead for the miners.

  61. Don

    I am thankful that XBI closed down today. My LABD may prove to have been a good bet although Monday could change that in a big hurry.

    1. vin

      Doesn’t he make sense about the currencies evaluation being relative and at present FED has one of the highest interest rates. So, why should should euro, yen or even yuan appreciate when compared to dollar?

      Again, isn’t he right that the dollar is the reserve currency? I would add that the US is still the main exporter of war machinery. Under these conditions how can dollar fall?

      I ask these questions only to understand. My knowledge of these complex and complicated issues is very limited.

      But, since I am heavily invested in gold/golds these issues do concern me. All responses will be highly appreciated.

      1. Gary Post author

        How did the dollar go up during the initial QE? The Fed was only one printing at the time. Under what logic could the dollar possibly go up during that period?

        You say you don’t see how the dollar can fall based on some fuzzy fundamentals. Now look at the chart and tell me what direction the dollar has been going for over a year. Then ask yourself if you want to believe in the “fundamentals” or whether you are willing to accept reality.

        At some point the market will concoct a story to explain why the dollar is collapsing but until then it’s better to just accept reality.

        1. vin

          First, thank you so much.

          Why did dollar go up during the initial QE? US$ has a built in safety net called “reserve currency”. As long as that status holds dollar has a base as compared to any other currency.

          Mind you, there are many negative signs on the horizon. Pak just switched over to yuan for some of its trades with China. Russia/China are trying hard for an alternative. etc. Yet until now the mighty $ is still the world reserve currency.

          Finally, you are right about my confusion. At present nothing seems to make sense. We are a living history. Such things haven’t happened in thousands of years based on whatever little information is available. Again, numerically the whole thing doesn’t make any sense either.

          That is the main reason why I am so impressed with your predictions. There is no way I would have seen coming what is happening. Thank you for educating a difficult student I am.

          Enjoy your day.

          1. Gary Post author

            The dollar was the reserve currency from 2000 to 2008 as well and the economy was on fire. Yet the dollar still experienced a major bear market.

            Fundamentals are meaningless in the currencies in my opinion.

  62. Gary Post author

    The Quest is now up 500% since October. Bitcoin has no chance of ever catching a simple bet on the stock market.

      1. BeachandBiscuits

        It’s one of the trade types he occasionally recommends for subscribers. Start with an investment of no more than $1,000 into a series of highly speculative trades over time, with the goal to grow that to $100,000.

  63. ted

    Bitcoin shorts are about to get smacked hard! BTC is off to $20K+. Wow, I am amazed that people actually would short instead of jumping on board!

    1. Gary Post author

      Why would anyone risk getting trapped in the bitcoin bubble when they can make many times the money of bitcoin with a simple leveraged strategy in the metals or stock market?

  64. ras

    Some folks like action, movement. pms are stuck in sideways mode until the dollar bounce is done.

    1. Gary Post author

      GDX has rallied 12% in 2 1/2 weeks. The stock market took an entire year to do 22%. JNUG did over 60% in that 2 1/2 weeks.

      Seems like pretty good action to me. And one doesn’t have to worry about getting caught in an imploding bubble.

Comments are closed.