205 thoughts on “CURRENCIES & GOLD

  1. Driver

    Gary, why wouldn’t the bankers exit after gold exceeds the more recent high that we are approaching now?

    1. Gary Post author

      To run a very dangerous manipulation yesterday as the currencies were flagging the banks are expecting a big move. They aren’t day traders. They position for big trending moves. Before this intermediate cycle tops the miners could test the baby bull highs.

  2. Robert

    Gary, will there be another chance to buy gold cheaper once the IC tops? Or will the pullbacks be too small?

      1. Robert

        I think the best way to make money then will be to go old turkey. Buy the shares of miners or GDXJ and just wait it out till gold goes into bubble type trajectory. Parabolic. It may take maybe 5 more years who knows. And stay away from the 3x ETF unless short term trading

  3. LeilaniFarms

    Gary, one thing I can’t wrap my head around is the Silver chart. It is still around 20% below it’s 2016 highs while Gold is a hair away.

    Looking at the Weekly and Daily Silver charts it has formed a Bull Flag after the 2016 baby bull and 2017 basing. It looks to me like it is breaking out to the upside as I type this.

    Wouldn’t you expect this next move up in Silver to be very explosive while it plays “catch up” to Gold sending mining stocks higher and quicker than anticipated?

    I know Silver doesn’t always move in lockstep with Gold but I am seeing a very explosive up move in Silver during the next 1-3 weeks. What are your thoughts?

    1. trendyfollower

      Silver is always late to the bull party, but then takes over. I think the silver/gold ratio is breaking out of consolidation too.

    2. mrsschroeder

      I took a position in physical silver yesterday, in euros on Milan exchange, too scared of what the dollar is doing.

    1. Nada

      We all know Christian does not lose money in the market. His wisdom and psychological understanding prevents that from becoming a possibility.

  4. JJHarmen

    Like everyone else who have been burnt by the miners a hundred times, I have to wonder if this GDX rally is the real deal or is it going to peak out at a lower low? I am hanging on with the 2500 shares I have been holding forever but it’s tough to hang in there when there is a chance to get out with a decent profit.

  5. JJHarmen

    I even have LABD going my way this morning. I haven’t taken on a short position in a long time. (Yeah, I know, not technically a “short”)

  6. Nada

    Added to my short position about a dollar shy of the double top play. I suspect it may go back and try again and possibly break above. But the bear in my heart can not pass this opportunity by 😛

  7. Spanky

    Hi there guys. Just checking in. Still Old Turkey long silver miners from fall of 2015.

    Many of them shrugging their shoulders today and actually underperforming silver. One that I hold–AG–has been in a very tight range for the last 6 months. and still hasn’t broken out in absolute terms or relative to silver. Wouldn’t be shocked in the least to see it break down from here. Has been an absolute POS for a year and half.

    Looks like they are weakening along with the stock market. Frustration… Anyway, see ya.

    1. RTTPD

      Don’t feel bad Spanky…..I’ve got 12,000 shares and I think I am going to buy more tomorrow. Production should see a huge increase with the Primero acquisition. This could be a 20 – 24 dollar miner by next year at this time

  8. Gary Post author

    Control anxiety.

    I don’t think the banks went to all the trouble to manipulate the market yesterday just to catch a one-day rally.

    1. Spanky

      Not anxiety. Just frustration. Every single time you think “this is it, it’s going to break out,” the rug gets pulled or you get a whimper of a move.

      Like I said wouldn’t be shocked in the least to see a retest of the ICL for some of these silver miners soon (AG is one of them), if not a break below it. Back to watching them drift lower and lower over the weeks and months….

      1. Nada

        Wow super bear Spanky is back. After all that talk of the yen going to hell in a hand basket and gold/silver going to zero. I guess you were pleasantly surprised with the rally since you were old turkey in miners.

        Now that you are bullish, I feel better about my shorts 🙂

          1. jskauai

            Spanky, IMO maybe it is time to play some different ones then. I like MAG, SSRM, NGD, AAU, ASM, SGSVF, GARWF, BALMF and TMQ. Good luck to you.

        1. Spanky

          Bullish??? Huh? Like I said, my silver miners haven’t done anything despite gold’s moonshot in recent weeks. Probably getting ready to breakdown hard at gold’s daily cycle top.

          1. Nada

            How did your miners not react to the +100 point move in gold? Anyway, I am messing with you. Welcome back. What is your current outlook?

          2. Spanky

            Sure some of them have gotten a relatively tiny bounce. Look at the charts for EXK, AXU and AG since the ICL. Yes, if they were Procter and Gamble I would be thrilled with the moves, but these are high risk silver miners that have had the crap beaten out of them (especially EXK and AG).

            I am especially disappointed in AG’s lack of movement. Like I said, it looks like it will break down once gold tops here in the short run. I hope I am wrong, as I am long. Backing out to the monthly charts, AG and AXU have been stuck in a tightening range for a year and a half. No idea which way the initial break will be, but often you get a fakeout break down before it reverses higher.

            On a day like today they should be rocketing higher, but they are not (look at SILJ ETF too). Maybe they rally into the close, but they looks weak as hell to me.

          3. RTTPD

            Jskauai —-

            I have NGD,AAU, and ASM. All great management. NGD should be about a dollar higher and I think their earnings report will be very good. AAU could gap up any day now, like in the past.

    2. Nada

      Well all know the miners like to gap fill when they gap up in the morning, I don’t see anything bad about that.

      1. Spanky

        Tired of the gap fills/backtests etc etc. It’s always something… Meanwhile the regular stock market is headed for Uranus in a straight shot, yet no one is worried about gap fills or back tests there. (Yeah yeah, I know, basing vs bubble top action are two different things–still frustrating as hell. I just want to see higher highs and higher lows in the silver miners. We haven’t really seen that for 1.5 years!)

    3. jyoung3759

      Gary,

      As you stated this rally continues probably at this point until the Dollar gets to 88.50ish level. When I saw that drawdown I was actually excited and anticipating a move higher in gold. That was my confirmation based on what was expected in the bigger picture. Another call well laid out and this information was available free of charge.

      I think this rally will find initial resistance at the 1362 level but overall like you said the baby bull top at 1377.50 and likely 1400.00 will be met. A lot will depend on what Draghi and the ECB say tomorrow for the short term IMHO.

    4. faz

      Thanks for the reminder to control anxiety Gary.
      JNUG popped its head over 20 and I must admit there was temptation to take some profits.

        1. Troy

          Silver always moves at the end of Gold’s IC. But when it does, it catches up quick. Real quick. It’s best to be in GDX/GDXJ or NUGT/JNUG for the first one or two DC’s and then move some to Silver later on.

          That being said, USLV is doing even better than NUGT and & JNUG today. Up 7%.

      1. ocram

        Not everybody can trade miners etf Gary,and in my country I cannot even use my losses to compensate capital gains using silver etf’s.

        1. Spanky

          Screw ponzi ETFs. They are evil bankster derivatives. You own nothing when you own an ETF. They aren’t even IOUs.

          1. THC

            Scandinavian here. I had the same problem, but changed broker and did a MFIID “test” to be qualified for trading US and CA etf’s, options and futures.

  9. Spanky

    My silver miners should be exploding upwards today. yet they are weakening with the bubble stock market today while silver is up over 2%! WTF. Lucy pulls the football away yet again.

    1. ocram

      I can feel your pain!
      In the baby bull leg, AG exploded on the upside (as well as almost any other silver and gold stocks) and outperformed greatly gold and silver.
      Nowadays the opposite is true,this is very frustrating!

      1. Spanky

        Because I have held for 2.5 years and am still holding gains.

        I am also holding out hopes that the Dec lows will never be seen again and we can make higher highs.

        But days like today do not fill me with much confidence.

        1. Jim Dandy

          2.5 years of torture and depression, not worth it no matter how much you might make. I´m not trying to dig you, but I recall visiting here during those last years and you seemed hopeless then too, you could always trade another group, it´s an everything bubble after all.

          1. Spanky

            With my luck I will buy the stock market at the exact top. Nah, just stick with money losing miners. As soon as I sell my miners they will go up 1000%.

  10. Nada

    USDJPY has retraced .786 of the previous IC. If I traded forex, I would long. Since I do not, I will short gold 🙂 .

    It was about .15 cents from retracement, so it may go back and tag. Need to tag 108.90.

    The high in spot (for double top play) was 1357.62. The high for today so far is 1356.66.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think it’s foolish to short gold right here. It was foolish the last time as well.

      The most obvious trigger for a cycle top is the FOMC meeting next week. Gold could test the baby bull high by then. Miners could test the September highs.

  11. jyoung3759

    Attachment

    The Dollar hit the first target yesterday on this end of day chart. Yes I have 88.46 as the next short -term target which is likely to be quick and put an end to Gold’s run temporarily.

  12. Goild

    Attachment

    Hi Nada,

    I hope you are doing very well in this business.
    Thanks for your comments and posts which I find of much value.

  13. Spanky

    Damn silver with a monster move today. Yet SILJ is only beating it by a few tenths of a percent so far. Talk about terrible (I mean monumentally awful) risk reward with the POS miners…

    1. Strike2

      Spanky- I just checked gold miner etf (GDX) and silver miner etf (SIL) and one was up 2.48% and the other 2.51%
      Your problem is stock picking not silver.
      Like Gary says trade the etf.

      1. Spanky

        Huh? My silver miners are up in aggregate 3.2% as of 12:43 CST. SILJ is up 3.4% (junior Silver ETF) That’s godawful relative performance. Even if you are in straight gold miners, you should be a little weary if silver miners underperform on a relative basis.

        You understand silver is up 2.5%? And SIL is up the same amount? And you are ok with that? lol.

        1. Strike2

          The trading period you are analyzing is 4 hours. Give it time. The fact that silver is soaring is like money in the bank for silver miners, eventually.
          Silver and silver miners are last to the party. But they close the bar at the end of the move.
          Look, if you want to fret go ahead. I just think you are impatient.

          1. Spanky

            Like I said, I have held for 2.5 years. Most of my silver miners have been drifting lower for 1.5 years! I can hold through anything at this point. It’s just extremely frustrating and disappointing on a day like today that they are not going multiples of silver’s move. They’ll move when they decide they want to move I guess.

          2. faz

            I think First Majestic (AG) is being Spanky’d for the Primero purchase.
            🙂
            Remember McEwen also got punished for the Black Fox mine purchase and only LATER did the market realise it was actually a brilliant accretive move by Rob McEwen. Here’s hoping same will happen for AG and that, by that time silver will have been ignited by gold’s uptrend. If AG then exceeds 2016’s highs shareholders will be very happy. But then again, AG should not be the only silver miner you own – Fortuna, MAG, Silvercrest Metals, Fresnillo… are just as interesting.

          3. RTTPD

            Primero was good move as it will vastly increase production. The only people burned on this move are/were existing Primero shareholders.

            GPL is another good silver miner but it’s stagnant in much the same way AG.

            GPL opened up at 1.39 and actually closed 4 cents lower after Silver jumped hugely. So GPL may actually be performing worse than AG.
            I own lots of shares of both – but I’m not worried one bit.

            Just remember — Every dog has its day…..

        2. Jim Dandy

          SILJ was also doing much better than silver recently, when the metal was having only tiny up days.

          Sell SILJ and buy MUX, MUX was a laggard, now its on top. They all take turns, I suppose.

  14. Gary Post author

    JNUG will be over $500 (split adjusted) before this bull market is over.

    The bigger the bear the bigger the bull that follows.

    The junior miners suffered one of the most destructive bear markets in history.

    1. ocram

      Jnug It’s a great way to invest into miners,where is possible to use it.
      But if this will happen I think almost any gold/silver stocks will go to the moon.
      Gary,I know that it’s a boring question…but WHEN do you think approximately that this PM bull market will be over….before or after 2022?
      Thanks 🙂

    2. Spanky

      Yes, and the sun will burn itself out in 7.8 billion years. Should I start investing in flashlights today?

      1. Nada

        No, do not invest in flashlights. You will have all the light you need and then some – The sun will first grow into a red giant and consume the Earth in 5 billion years, assuming you can live that long.

    3. vin

      Gary LABU will exceed 500 before the bubble burst and 1000 is not impossible.

      And, INDL!!!!! Just watch.

  15. jacob2

    QID, TZA sold stocks bought these after last nights “dysphoric” post regarding the SM.

    Awaiting a 15 % correction.

  16. AT

    Great rally up, was time to lock some profits on JNUG, and will wait for the next little dip around 18 – 19 to reload.

  17. loneranger

    Probably won’t get to my price today but setting my traps for nugt and jnug. $39.20 and $20.97 respectively.

  18. Strike2

    First 1362, then 1377. After that I think there is clear sailing (except for round number phobia) until the gap that is still unfilled in April 2013 (1560ish I think).

    Trade out of your positions at your own risk.

  19. Jimsee

    the opex shorts are piling on the stocks I bet to create a divergence – they might cover by the close- interesting times for sure.

    An attempt in the morning to hit gold hard makes sense – but if the tide has turned it will result in a lightning runto 1390 imo.

  20. jyoung3759

    Here is an update of the chart I posted the other day. Gold has left the station in a hurry. Let’s hope you listened and were able to pull the trigger. I will admit I was not savvy enough to get in at the turn of the ICL but did have the nuts to buy on the consolidation and held through all the static by the banks over the last several weeks. Cheers to all those who were able to make similar decisions. Thank you Gary.

    1. Spanky

      Buy the dip!!! How many times have we been through this. 10 years and running and still some people don’t get it.

    1. Jim Dandy

      LOL, I´m starting to think you are just rooting the opposite way in hopes the market which you think hates you (and an hear you) decides to go higher?

      You are all longed up in a group you despise and that underperforms serially, just so you can whine about it?

      1. Spanky

        You hit the nail on the head probably. I hate this sector with a passion. And yet I can’t take the leap to buy the stock market (I don’t care how high it goes). The miners are going to be range bound for years yet in all likelihood while the Nasdaq heads to 30,000.

    2. Jim Dandy

      LOL, I´m starting to think you are just rooting the opposite way in hopes the market which you think hates you (and can hear you) decides to go higher?

      You are all longed up in a group you despise and that underperforms serially, just so you can whine about it? You could at least cash out on an up day, then move the proceeds into JNUG, it seems to respond as it should.

    1. RTTPD

      I would be scared as hell to short oil right now with Turkey lining up with Russia and Iran……and the Saudis bringing up the Staights of Hormuz.

    1. GBull33

      Attachment

      Thanks for the numbers.
      This is what I see.
      Maybe we get a small pullback tomorrow to $1350.
      Goodluck with your short position, if you’re still in it.

  21. vrancovich

    maybe somebody is willing to share their opinion. I already know gary’s and we don’t agree.

    I do not believe that the dollar will be devalued to zero against other currencies. I dont think that would work, it would not work that the dollar drops 90% and the euro stays where it is today. if we are going to see a devaluation it will most likely be across the board, meaning all major currencies go down in value but on a relative level against each other they stay more or less put since if the euro and the dollar both go down at the same time, it would look on the usd/euro chart as if they have not moved.

    so here is my issue, it seems like the gold bull is predicated on the dollar losing value. I am looking at the gold chart in euros and we havent gone anywhere. so as far as europeans are concerned, gold is a shitty investment so far.

    i believe we need for gold to rally on every currency like cryptocurrencies did in order to have something meaningful in our hands.

    so far, gold is just a derivative of the dollar. nothing else.

    1. vin

      vrancovich, My feelings are somewhat similar to yours. But, then interestingly Gary has been right. And, I am willing to follow him as long as I can make a nickel.

      My feelings! I feel that in due course of time all currencies will collapse in comparison to gold. It is quite possible that gold first rises in terms of US$only and then there is a currency war. It sounds ridiculous but yet they will all try to devalue their currencies compared to one another. Talking about the twisted world. Welcome to the world of benefits without work. Sooner or later it will catch up.

      1. vrancovich

        thanks for your reply vin, i agree gary has been right so far (at least for this cycle). I rarely ever disagree with him, its just that gold going to 5000$ solely on the fact that the usd is going down against other currencies doesnt hold water. the usd was pretty weak in 2011 yet gold could not break 2000. I truly hope for gold to disengage against all currencies and for it to start trading on its own right but time will tell.

      1. vrancovich

        he usually speaks of the coming dollar devaluation (hyperinflation) against other currencies, thats been his sthick for a while. while i agree the dollar will continue to lose value overtime as it always have, i dont think the dollar will go down in flames zimbawe style and the euro and yen keep their value as if nothing happened.

        thats my main problem with gold, we need to break away from being a currency counterplay. otherwise we are shackled.

        dont get me wrong, i am a gold bull. but this whole things gives me pause.

  22. Vintana

    New sub here…I registered for alerts and got a reply. However, I haven’t gotten any alerts after registering early yesterday. Help?

      1. Bob

        lol, of course you did. Today is Wednesday already and the Tuesday, January 23 report was excellent. 🙂

        Looking forward to seeing if the banksters use tomorrow morning’s GDP report as an excuse to up gold once again. I don’t think the actual report will be particularly relevant.

  23. Pennystocks

    I remember as recent as 1 year and a half ago how the gold miners etf JNUG would rally 12 -15 % on a day like today with gold up $17 . This is ridiculous (i know the rebalancing occured but it REALLY sucks !!!!! ) Gary do you think this characteristic can change in the near term to be more reflective of golds moves ?

    Thanks

    1. Spanky

      For the amount of risk you incur, the miners are absolutely not worth touching. They are trash. Just buy gold futures and lever yourself 3:1 and you will destroy the mining indexes adjusting for risk.

      1. primetime

        Everyone always looks for the knee-jerk reaction in immediate real time. If it was that easy, everyone would be a millionaire. They play games with your emotions and head. Patience, and emotional control is the key.

        The miners will start having better earnings and making money, then watch out. Patience.

        This is a marathon, not the 100 yard dash.

        1. Spanky

          Dude we have been making lower lows for 18 months!!! WTF. Enough is enough. yeag I get it, nothing comes easy. Whatever. Don’t preach to me about patience. I am long for 2.5 years. basically 6 months up and 18 months down. That action blows. Spare me the patient crap.

          1. primetime

            MUX strong today….just by some USLV and ride it to 500 spot silver…then retire…it may be that simple?

      2. primetime

        I did Jake, but the beauty of old turkey, you take it either way it comes. Saves the worries and stress.

  24. Gary Post author

    The miners are going to produce one of the greatest bull markets in history, it not the greatest.

    This is what basing patterns do. They make traders impatient and then they miss the move when the breakout occurs.

    1. Spanky

      A true break out could be another 1-2 years away. Yeah, we may get back or close to the 2016 high this year, but it will be right back down to the 200 WMA. Rangebound until 2020.

          1. Gary Post author

            Did you seriously think Old Turkey would be easy? You are going to have to work for it.

            The only time Old Turkey is easy is during the bubble phase. We are seeing that now in the stock market. Gold’s bubble phase is still years away. There will be many trials and tribulations for gold Turkeys before we get to the easy times.

          2. Spanky

            18 months of lower lows and lower highs will do that to you. That is the crappiest bull market behavior I have ever seen.

            I’m sure the miners will be headed to the moon eventually, but I think its going to be a long long hard slog for the HUI to get back to 600. So much damage was inflicted between 2011 and 2015. And it wasn’t like we got a V bottom. There is a lot of dead weight on the very long term MAs (especially the monthlys) that is going to take years yet to work off (the indexes made progressivley lower lows for an entire year between 2014 and 2015–basically scraped bottom for a whole year). Yes, we can make higher highs but there won’t be a rocket ride yet for many many years.

          3. Gary Post author

            I’ll ask again, did you think this was going to be easy?

            How many people do you know that bought stocks at the bottom in 2009 and have held them for 9 years waiting for the “good times”?

          4. Spanky

            I just want the silver miners (SILJ) to make a higher high on the weekly chart. That’s all I want to see and I can die in peace.

          5. Spanky

            US stocks never ever suffered 18+ months of lower highs and lower lows during their ridiculous bull run from 2009. Please correct me if I am wrong.

    1. primetime

      Spanky,
      Many things or scenarios could provide rocket fuel for the metals, don’t you think so?

      1. Spanky

        Sure. The fundamentals have been in place since 2008, yet here we are. I don’t think the silver miners are going to do anything this IC. I don’t think SILJ will even make a higher high vs the last peak on the weekly chart before rolling over. I’ve been saying “this is it” for at least a year now, but the lows keep dropping below the last low. I hate this god forsaken sector. I really do. Silver miners are by in large trash.

  25. jake

    Everyone that sat in their 401k since 2009 which is most everyone are the smartest dummies.
    Ignorance is bliss.

      1. Spanky

        US stocks won’t drop more than 5% again in USD terms. They will vaporize the dollar before that is allowed to happen.

    1. Gary Post author

      You will be better off monitoring the bullish percent for overbought levels rather than the standard RSI or stochastics indicators.

      That being said even the bullish percent indicator is now over bought. We are overdue for some kind of correction but I doubt it will last more than a couple of weeks and the next phase should be even more aggressive than this one.

      1. jacob2

        A correction would be a very good thing just happen to think it will be larger then most expect. Think it gets rocky this spring or sooner p.o. 2500 or so on the S&P.

        1. Gary Post author

          I think it’s very unlikely the S&P will drop back below that bull market channel trendline.

          I think we are in the bubble phase to end all bubbles.

          1. jacob2

            Favor the “gut check ” scenario prior to bubble mania and one last back up the truck opportunity. I really don’t know but do know I sold most of my stocks and sitting largely in cash and miners. Unworried about “missing out”.

          2. Gary Post author

            My opinion is that it’s a huge mistake to be “out” during a bubble. One can be unleveraged but never out.

            Old Turkey knew what he was doing…

            Bubbles are rare and they don’t last long. One can’t risk missing them because they think they can outsmart a bubble.

    2. carlvan

      jacob2, probably you won’t read this as we are on the 25th already but FWIW: RSI(14) above 80, and surely above 90, on a daily chart just tells you one thing: prices will go higher in almost 100% of the case, this is a trading system on its own, so it’s not bearish, but utterly bullish!! Only suckers (and you are not one, I mean this in general) will short with an RSI at 91! Now, when the day comes with an RSI above 70 AFTER this 91 and after a pullback and new highs, THEN we will have a divergence, and PERHAPS that will be bearish. Or not.

      1. Gary Post author

        Very high oscillators are a sign of extreme momentum. It’s not bearish.

        Price can stay overbought for a long time, especially in a bubble.

  26. jacob2

    Thanks, Good advise. Maybe it’s just me but seems like I’m reliving the late stages of the dot com bubble.

  27. ARends

    According to my previous estimate to key MA 1366 we just reached. I believe we will have a DCL at least. WE might then have a double top or spike above. This is the way I see the play of Gold
    https://invst.ly/6ft6q

  28. LeilaniFarms

    Attachment

    Still holding the 318 shares of JNUG purchased on 12/12 with an average price of $12.71.

    My sentiment is still BULLISH on precious metals as well as miners.

  29. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    I think the most likely trigger for the smaller daily cycle to top will be the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Gold should test or marginally break above the baby bull high.

    I don’t expect a final intermediate top until the euro tags the bear market trend line.

    Gold is going to at least reach $1400 during the larger intermediate cycle and maybe the reaction high from 2013 around $1440.

  30. Gary Post author

    Wow the way the dollar is collapsing the euro may reach that bear trend line during this daily cycle.

    1. Gary Post author

      I wonder at what point Armstrong is going to admit that he was completely wrong about the dollar.

      I suspect he will just rewrite his blog and say this is what he was expecting all along.

      1. Gary Post author

        The market hasn’t even opened yet, how do you know what gold is going to do before the close?

        Remember, take everything in this sector with a grain of salt.

        1. Gary Post author

          There have been multiple attacks over the last 30-40 minutes. But we don’t know what the banks are trying to do. Are they trying to cap price or are they trying to scare traders again into coughing up more shares.

  31. carlvan

    Big intraday triangle in the making for NQ and the Dow; let’s see on which side it will resolve. Usually this is a continuation pattern. I wonder, if it resolves to the upside, whether gold will go same direction, or the opposite…interesting week at least!

      1. Gary Post author

        I’ve given up trying to figure out when we’re going to get a correction in the stock market. But I do believe the NASDAQ will reach 10,000 and maybe 20,000 before this bubble is finished.

        1. carlvan

          I have no doubt with that Gary- certainly the 10k piece. But I am still hoping to load a few futures contract on NQ at a better price after perhaps a DCL or even an ICL in the next weeks. I am indeed reduced to “hoping” because I didn’t follow your advice earlier when you said that the bubble was starting (and everybody was predicating a disastrous crash especially just after the last presidential elections in the US)…

          1. Gary Post author

            It’s only 100%. Bitcoin did that in one month during its final blow off top. I don’t think it’s unrealistic the NASDAQ could do the same thing, although it might take two or three months.

        2. chrisG

          Wahahah. Good one. I have previously sold 3 times, and shorted. Cost my profits dearly. Now i sell, sometimes buy back slightly lower. Sometimes a bit higher. If i did not buy back, would have lost my longs. Yes, better to just follow Old Turkey… NONONO, i cant sell. Cos i cant afford to lose my position!

  32. Spanky

    The 89 month MA has basically contained gold since 2016. That MA is coming in at 1367 this month. That MA more or less also corresponds to an inverse head and shoulder neckline.

    The bottom line is if we break through the $1370 with authority, there is a chance gold could really put on a large move over the next few months as there will be very little overhead resistance.

    $1367 or thereabouts seems like as good a number for a daily cycle top as any.

    $gold is inside the red ichimoku cloud on the monthly chart at the moment. The upper border of the cloud will be $1473 next month and will drop to around $1430 by March and then it stays flat from there until March of 2019. If we can break through that upper border there is a very good chance that it becomes LT support. Therefore, IMO, it’s quite possible we see a significant break above $1430 (maybe get close to $1500) on this IC before coming back down to test the 1430 level.

    We’ll see I guess.

    1. carlvan

      A very good point; I charted a mthly Ichimoku after reading your post and also it’s true that, after 1434, the former to last major pivot high before the bottom of 2015 mentioned by Gary earlier today, there is absolutely no resistance left until at least 1800 on that time frame. Big picture….

  33. Spanky

    Absolute insane consolidation of AG under the 233 WMA.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p00182368682&a=573302982&listNum=1

    Notice how tight the bollinger bands are–probably the tightest they have ever been. Unfortunately, I have a feeling AG is going to break downwards when gold cycle tops. Hopefully it is just a headfake down, but it could get ugly in the short term. I hope it can just ramp higher from here, but I have serious doubts about that without at least a breakdown first. Hope I am wrong as I am long.

    1. carlvan

      my 2 cents: a fake break down, with immediate pull back and close inside of the BB’s, coupled with the multiple divergence on your indicators, would be a strong buy signal to me. I suggest you hang on your longs here! (but who am I)

    2. RTTPD

      I bought another 2200 shares today of AG at 6.87. I now have 14200 shares. I’d almost bet one of my rental properties this will be over 10 by the end of the year.

  34. Gary Post author

    I tend to think gold still has a few more days to rally before the daily cycle tops (FOMC meeting?). But people you need to be aware that it’s getting late in the daily cycle. If you don’t want to ride out a DCL you need to take profits soon, or at least deleverage.

    Remember how the banks like to exit. They create a breakout and then sell into it while retail and hedge funds buy in a panic.

  35. Spanky

    $gold has basically rallied 10% and SIL has basically rallied 10% from the low. That is absolutely terrible relative performance for SIL. SIL could get hammered into the next DCL. Or maybe it will hold up relatively well. It’s anyone’s guess. Because of how numb I am to the sector, I am just going to assume it is going to get absolutely hammered.

  36. trendyfollower

    No one can hold your hand in the markets like Gary does. Most people need a lot of hand holding as the markets never make it easy and you have to have a high pain threshold to make it as a trader. If Gary can’t help you you should not engage in the markets. Period.

    1. The German

      Gary – respect for the last 6 months !!!! Im new to this page – just registered ! But ifollow for about 2years – right now your right on ! BUT you ignore the horrible COT Commercials short aspect ! Theyre at 232,000 shorts and Friday is tomorrow maybe shows 240,000 + or more ! Euro almost hit Trimmline about 1 cent of yet ! im slowly SELLING miners right now since i dont believe in the 1400 + on this run . You think maybe were turning here between 1366 and 1380 in the next days ? COT is Killingly high – i think Euro Shorts also and WTI RECORD Short high with the Commercials . Hope i got some thoughts to you to evaluate – greetings from Germany !!”

  37. vin

    ted, do you think that this is another ” the top” for miners?

    What about btc? Is it the THE bottom or there are going to be a few more in a few months.

    Please keep us entertained with your wisdom. I for one miss your smart advice, specially on “top” for miners.

  38. carlvan

    Ted, where are you? Please come back, it’s your day again 🙂
    It looks like king dollar has its dead cat bounce…so here is for a DCL coming for gold?

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