90 thoughts on “CURRENCY CYCLES

  1. Gary Post author

    The most likely trigger for the daily dollar cycle to bottom, and the euro cycle to top would be on the FOMC meeting January 31.

    So we probably have about a week to a week and a half for the current trends in currencies and metals to remain in force before we see a counter trend move.

      1. Gary Post author

        Unless the Fed gets serious and raises rates to 5% or higher very quickly they aren’t going to derail the bubble that’s forming in the stock market.

  2. didier

    So if i understand you well gold and the dollar will probably have 2 DC of each approx. 45 days in this IC. This IC started begin december and ends around half march.

  3. Duuuuuude

    I think I understand what you are saying Gary, but I am not certain yet that I agree with the scenario you are laying out. If the euro just made a half cycle low and the last dollar cycle bottomed on day 25, then assuming the next daily cycle in the dollar bottoms early again on day 25, then we would still have another 17 days. That would have the euro topping at day 35 and it would still need time to find its dcl. Its been nearly 6 months since we have had a daily cycle in the dollar stretch beyond 35 days. I would almost believe that the dollar would need to be stretched out before the euro which would then favor the scenario where the euro cycle was only 18 days…..a very short one. I am not arguing here but its not clear to me yet.

    1. Gary Post author

      Here is the last year of DCL’s. They have been averaging 2 months to even as long as 3 months. The cycles have evolved into longer duration’s now than the old average of 18-28 days.

      Gold is only 1 month into this cycle. It’s not inconceivable that the cycle rallies until the FOMC meeting.

  4. Jim Dandy

    I will not try to time around a DCL, instead will look past it to the next intermediate cycle, which we are reasonably sure will occur. I will hold everything straight through the DCL, no matter when it comes or how deep it is, in fact will be adding to positions when it shows up.

  5. pacoquin

    hi Gary, am probably the only person following you from Spain, for some many years.
    In the past, sometimes I have been very critical with your views about the markets, but I never stopped following and reading yr daily comments.
    In the past months or weeks I must tell you that in my opinión you are reading markets clearly.
    Humbly I agree with you 100%
    I am trading as well…in according with yr views… wether are indexes… commodities… forex.. etc.
    You are being very helpful on my trading and I want to thank you.. and apologize for any inconvenience might cause you any of my past negative comments.
    I thank you very much and I look forward to follow you for another 10 years 🙂
    Pleas keep the good work… its a pleasure to follow you

    Pacoquin (Spain)

    ps/ excuse my poor english

    1. DrJ314

      Pacoquin-

      As someone who only speaks one language and is jealous of those that speak two or more, please don’t apologize for a perceived lack of ability in your non-native language! I’d love for my Spanish to be anywhere near as good as your English!

      Mike

  6. Bluebellkid

    Gary, your IT personnel should be able to set it up where any links posted don’t replace your web site when picked on – the link will open in a new window.

  7. jacob2

    CHinas Petroyuan set to launch January 17th. Currently oil soild to China from the gulf states setteled in dollars. IF this changes it won’t be good for,the buck. Something to consider.

  8. Gary Post author

    It’s funny how last year when the dollar was going up people could find all kinds of reasons for why it would continue to go up. Now after a year and the dollar has gone down people can find all kinds of reasons for why it will continue to go down.

    1. RTTPD

      “It’s funny how last year when the dollar was going up people could find all kinds of reasons for why it would continue to go up. Now after a year and the dollar has gone down people can find all kinds of reasons for why it will continue to go down.”

      Personally, after the PM’s end their IC sometime in mid March, I’d love to see the dollar shoot back up into the high 90’s — because we are going to take another long vacation in Europe in mid June. I know that’s totally wishful thinking and not in the cards though.

  9. Bluebellkid

    How did everyone (I’m including myself) miss the move in oil?? Why didn’t we think oil was going higher if we believed the dollar was going down and other commodities were going up??

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s gone pretty much where I expected it to go. So has the stock market.

      Does one really need to play both markets?

      Stocks are safer. You have central bank protection.

    2. Duuuuuude

      The difference for me is that oil is late in its ICL and gold is still in its first month. I would expect the PM’s to move but the oil caught me by surprise. I mean the oil IC began in June. I trade with a lot of leverage, so I can’t take a chance on an asset that late in an IC. Sentiment Trader places the risk on oil at an 8 which is very high. Stocks are a 7.

      1. jacob2

        Bought oil early summer and held on. Won’t be selling anytime soon, old turkey as I believe commodities are a long term buy. Fwiw oil usual has a seasonal peak end of Jan then dips hard til mid FEb. and rises till the end of August. Wouldn’t chase here.

  10. Gary Post author

    Friday and today are very good examples why leverage against the intermediate trend is dangerous. Especially during a first daily cycle. Never never trade against a first daily cycle. They can be extremely powerful and rally longer than many expect.

    Steff has now lost between 25 and 50% of his portfolio with the 12X leveraged fund.

    1. Clarence

      I did not know a x12 leveraged fund existed ?

      Can someone rattle off a few so I can look them up ?

          1. Duuuuuude

            You might want to look at Futures. For 85000 you can buy 5000 troy oz of silver. With futures you can control the same 5000 oz penny for penny with 5000 margin.. That would be like 17X leverage.

      1. MikeD

        It’s not a fund it’s an open end certificate. Like an option without expiration or strike price. Bull Silver x 12 is up 300% from december lows for an example.

    2. Jim Dandy

      That´s terrible trading, considering he is generally a bull on metals and miners and was only looking to trade a pullback. He should have used the 12x long fund when he was bullish, now he is losing twice as fast as he gained when long.

  11. Gary Post author

    The euro may reach the bear market trend line quicker than I expected. As the dollar breaks down out of the megaphone pattern it may accelerate the currency moves.

      1. Gary Post author

        Attachment

        The multi-year bottom won’t be due until 2019-20. But the March FOMC meeting could be a potential top or bottom as the Fed will raise rates again. Watch the video again. I think the key technical level will be the bear market trend line in the euro.

    1. Gary Post author

      One very simple rule I learned a long time ago that has saved me a fortune over the years. Never trade against the intermediate trend. Generally for every time I won, I lost 3 or 4 times. Over the years violating this rule will cost one a lot of money. Steff is paying for it right now, and so are a few other people in the challenge that thought they could outsmart a first daily cycle.

      It’s much safer to just wait for the DCL (that may come much later than you expect) and then buy or add to positions.

      Several people busted their account during the baby bull trying to play the short side too soon.

      1. Nada

        I agree with your thought process here. I have made a lot of modifications to how I play the advancing phase of the IC and I am limiting my options to 1k for tying to gamble with the DCL.

        I am no longer taking any long position in PMs after the 2nd daily cycle completes.

  12. vin

    Gary, Once again I would like to thank you. Your predictions have been superb lately.

    I am now a subscriber but in my mind that is secondary. Your providing free information on this site means a lot to me. Of-course it helps you to gain more clients. But, I feel that it is more more than that. You are a kind man. And, my feelings are based on the way you respond and the patience you show with some who only aim to create trouble.

    BTW I am sure that the subscription will be financially useful for me. I have looked at your portfolios and I can see how well you have timed. As mentioned by many before one could have made many times the subscription even by investing only a small amount.

    Best regards. And, keep up the good work, my friend.

  13. SUBBA

    Hello Friends,

    Does any one has any recommendations to get exposer to Marijuana stocks or ETFs ? Just want add not more than $1000 to invest ?

    1. RTTPD

      Sounds like Victor may be the guy to ask on the Marijuana stocks. I looked at one of his recommendations closely…and I am going to buy it tomorrow.

      1. Gary Post author

        Emotions make traders want to chase expecting a continuation of a trend indefinitely. A better strategy is to find the next trending sector and get in before the trend starts.

        That requires being a contrarian though, and most people are incapable of that kind of thinking.

    1. jake

      Modern day Shinplasters…

      DEVELOPMENT OF MARYLAND 1812 TO 1880

      “The United States Bank was obliged to refuse to redeem the notes of its own branches-and even the Farmers’ Bank of Maryland repeatedly refused to receive the notes of her own Frederick and Easton branches as if each were an individual and local institution. By these process our people suffered exceedingly. Thousands of individuals once wealthy were utterly ruined, and thriving institutions were swept out of existence. The most active and enterprising men of the country were the greatest sufferers. During all this trying period the people of Maryland, besides enduring the mercantile depression of the country, suffered by a depreciated currency-including bank notes, railroad orders, canal script, corporation and individual issues. This was the reign of small notes emitted by firms and even individuals, contemptuously called “shinplasters” which were as plentiful and as troublesome as the frogs in Egypt. Irresponsible dealers palmed them off on the distressed public, who were forced to receive them in the lack of other currency, and the inevitable failure to redeem them inflicted serious losses on the community.”

  14. ocram

    Gary,
    anyway this leg of what we hope is a new gold bull market is ,until now,completely different from that of first six months of 2016 (baby bull) .
    Back then gold moved not so much but miners did fly!!! Nowadays miners are in coma!
    Do you think they will outperform gold in this leg or it will not happen?

      1. Gary Post author

        Attachment

        The normal historical ratio is in blue. During this phase of the bull market we should see this return to historical norms. It’s going to take awhile though. It’s been in a flag during the basing phase. If that is finished like I think it is, then we should see another step down in the ratio this year.

  15. Jouni Harjula

    I have contra view on this analisis and have gone SHORT in my account both for gold and euro. Why? Retail trader sentiment in both gold and euro are both quite extreme coupled with record extreme by COT noncommercial bullish sentiment in euro (and bullish exteme in US dollar). I see good chance in head fake for US dollar ,breaking support here but turning into vicious short covering rally. Everybody is expecting us dollar to tank (just google articles), there is virtually nobody bullish on US dollar in general. Strong Bullish seasonality in both jan and feb may also support the idea. To Garys for good analysis in cycles and price action do not support my view yet so I will do some scaling in if needed to get best avg price as long as dollar does not collapse completely. finally bullish RSI price divergence in both euro/dxy may start working here. its make or break time for dollar. if price confirms my view, i see us dollar will breaking 100. also gold back below 1000 in this case.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think you should get a subscription to sentimentrader and monitor actual sentiment as opposed to extrapolating sentiment based on your bias.

      Sentiment in gold is neutral (60% bulls) and sentiment in the dollar is far from the kind of extremes that are usually required to turn price back up when an asset is in a bear market (29% bulls. During bear markets this can drop below 20% before price turns. It can stay below 30% for months at a time).

      You’ve been pushing this view for awhile now and you just keep losing. I think it’s time to jettison your bias and pay attention to what the market is saying rather than what you want it to say.

      Perma bears in the stock market have been telling me this same story for two years now. They constantly try to pick a top every other day (just as I predicted they would). We all know how well this has worked out for them.

      1. Jouni Harjula

        I think the best sentiment is COT and watching retail positions as they present real money, not opinions as many sentiment trading web sites purport. I do not follow subjective sentiment indicators. i think its waste of money. As recorrd i initiated today my sell positions in euro and gold and I also trade around the main positions short term. I only buy weakness and sell strentgh to initiate positions, as i have less risk in case things dont not pan out. as i mentioned this extreme situations tend to reverse very fast, so lets see what happen. at the end price itself does not move price, there is a underlying condition which is the real money moving around.

        1. Gary Post author

          The COT reports have nothing at all to do with sentiment. They are simply a record of how aggressively the large commercial traders are hedging their production.

          If you study the historical data you will see they aren’t a great timing tool. I figured out years ago that using the COT’s as my main timing model was going to cost me a lot of money. At major turning points participants can be on the wrong side of the market for a long time. A perfect example occurred during the baby bull. By March the commercials were already massively short and the retail and hedge funds were massively long.

          Many many traders made the mistake of thinking this would cause gold to very quickly turn and head back down. The exact opposite occurred and many traders that were depending on the COT’s for guidance either lost everything trying to short the baby bull or they simply missed the greatest rally in decades.

          There is absolutely nothing subjective about sentimentrader. Jason calculates sentiment mathematically.

          I’ve said this many times before but I’ll repeat it here again. Anyone who is serious about making money in the market absolutely has to have a subscription to sentimentrader. It is the cheapest but also the most priceless subscription you will ever buy.

          1. Jouni Harjula

            Relaying on COT only is mistake as you mentioned signals can sometimes be wrong prolonged time, so other indicators (important price levels, tech indicators, trend, retail positition helps to fine tune entries). Also, diferent markets react diferentely to COT reports, so make blanket statement that cot does not work i thinks misleading. for example the last drop in Gold was perfectly timed by COT positions, it was more than easy to see it.

            Current situacion with us dollar and gold warrant to be very careful with Gold especially, as all positioning is flashing red. Not saying we cannot see 1360 here, but i go for 50-100 points not 10 point changes.

            I dont have any experience with sentimenttraders, so i am not going speak specifically about that site. what worries me about thet mathematical models is that they have inputs that mayve flawed like questionners, surveys etc. I find them indicative at the best, but not so objective.

          2. Gary Post author

            On the contrary now is the time to be greedy in gold. We should have at the very least 5-10 more weeks before the intermediate cycle tops.

            Right now one should control anxiety.

            But like I’ve said many times in the past 95% of traders do the exact opposite of what they should do. They are greedy at tops after price has rallied for many weeks, and they are anxious at bottoms which not only prevents them from pulling the trigger, but also keeps them out of the rally for many weeks until their emotions finally give them the all clear signal. That’s usually about the time the rally is coming to an end.

            Human nature never changes.

            If you want to make money in this business you have to learn how to do the opposite of what everyone else does.

            I’d say it usually takes most traders at least 5-7 years to learn how to fight their emotions, and many never overcome that hurdle.

  16. jacob2

    GAry, any long term projections. Thoughts on: (1) what outpreforms this year nasdq, S&p or crb (2) Multiyear ? (3) VIability of a buy and hold ( old turkey ) strategy going forward for the PM’s and crb over the next few years. Biased and have my own ideas but would like an informed 2nd opinion.

    THanks

  17. Jacob

    Hi Gary, i just logged in for the first time in ages to say thankyou, and well done on your calls over the last period. Ive been a member for years, and while i havent commented in a while, and have not even accessed the premium section in months, im happy to pay my membership. Knowledge i learned here has led me on a journey in junior explorers in the ASX. We have an EV boom going on, and im making some good money in lithium, cobolt and my old love gold (not so much). I have got good at calling the cycles, and come here to see what ya’ll think, and its working great.
    The funny thing is while i have been hoping the markets would break down for gold to fly, now with the EV boom, im hoping the bubble keeps going because my lithium stocks love it.
    Wondering if you think the government will shut down for a little, which will put a rocket under gold, while also creating a good pullback in stocks? Keep up the good work, jacob

    1. Gary Post author

      We’ve seen this one enough times to know how it plays out. Everyone pushes it to the wire to extort as many perks and concessions as possible and then everything goes back to normal.

  18. Jouni Harjula

    Attachment

    This elliot wave analysis done by some internet expert just for entertaining purpose ( I do not put any credibility in elliott waves as they are way too subjective.)

      1. Jouni Harjula

        No its elliottgold website. I read elliotts like tea leaves. No clue what they are talking about

    1. Nada

      I know you are just passing along someone else’s analysis, bit look at their timeframe. A drop to 1k in 2 months.

  19. trendyfollower

    Folks, it’s the 90% rule: 90% of people will miss 90% of a move. Human nature never changes.

  20. Nada

    Attachment

    Bitcoin gartley update;

    BTW Gary, love the new feature to post charts directly without having to link to another site.

  21. Nada

    Attachment

    Gold gartley update. With this pattern close enough for me, I went short on Friday. Will add on swing high or stop out if invalidates. New moon on 17th 🙂

  22. victor

    “jake
    Pot stocks have had a big run not a good investment unless there’s a big pull back.”
    It was a big pulback last week. I’m surprise not many people pay attention to pot stocks. Guys, it’s a new industry been born!!! Those stocks just started.
    Gary said ” better strategy is to find the next trending sector and get in before the trend starts” , that’s right , it is a trending sector that Gary and all of us failed to identify at the beginning .
    Is it late now? How can it be when valuation of VFF.TO went up from 1.70$ to 9$ in month time? And this is not a Bitcoin mining, it is 30yr in business farm with 4.2 mln sq.ft green houses decided to convert its 1.1mln tomato field into cannabis growup? Just conversion to it will cost them 13mln$.
    Are they don’t know what they are doing? 9$ and they have no license yet!!!
    Mark my word 14$ in February when they get a license, and double my money with almost 6k shares.
    Legalization is coming, money coming already in a budget.
    P.S. avoid Aurora for now, they are in a big dispute.

  23. Jim Dandy

    Chitcoin getting SMOKED, new collapse lows for those that won´t sell into a parabola. Next stop, $6K.

    Almost half their riches are gone in just one month, dosen´t the market understand there are only 21 million imaginary beans, and we´re wresting control of money from the central banks?

    But governments will decide they need chitcoins and buy it themselves, imagine the possibilities, a decline is unpossible! What kind of idiot would sell? https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/905223/Ethereum-bitcoin-price-value-latest-South-Korea-cryptocurrency-shutdown-speculation

    Looks like the asians picked the pocket of westerners again, selling while the pilgrims were fast asleep in their parents house. It´s still not too late to sell and keep some of their money, but they prefer to think they are geniuses over making money. With all the benefits of chitcoin, they should be in there buying hand over fist at these low, low prices. Then again, with imaginary ¨coins¨losing 10% an hour, they can get twice as many chitcoins if they wait until this afternoon to add. That is how they lose everything.

    The good news is there is strong support near zero.

  24. Jouni Harjula

    Gold is starting to show cracks, will be adding to gold snd euro short very soon. High probability this will became another 100 point in gold like the last one. Price will guide but all conditions ripe for major long liquidaction. Paper cartel comes back like clockwork.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Gold down 20 cents is showing cracks? You are talking your book too hard.

      Gold has formed a MONTHLY swing low, thus you are trying to pick up peanuts in front of a steamroller, trading the short side.

      1. Jouni Harjula

        Yes tops can take some.time, and its good.to see small cracks happening. Conditions are behind price moves and these extremes have high probability to crash gold and euro. 100 + drop is peanuts ? Well keep buying i will gladly sell to you. Very long term i am bullish gold but not now. This is time to unload truck. 20 cents, what datafeed you use? By the way, i am trading real money on 2018 worldcuptrading champ under my real name and so if you got balls join in and stop making useless comments or are you.just paper trader and sofa qtrback ?

        1. Jim Dandy

          So far I´m winning, you are losing, as Gary mentioned above you have tried several times to short and lost. I dont recall seeing you here before so can´t attest to that fact, but the fact is gold has formed a monthly swing low.

          My comments are useless, but your incessant shorting reasons are useful? Why not just go to a blog where people are not all long like they are here, or do you just need to feel right more than you want to make money? I think it is you who has shallow pockets, and I am taking your money as I already have been.

          Good luck shorting, it might even work for a couple days, but you aren´t getting $100 out of it, that is for sure. And you aren´t taking the other side of my trade unless you shorted in mid-December, and if you did, then you are shoveling money into my account just as fast as you can!

          I probably haven´t see you here before because you disappear for a few months every time you lose? By the way what kind of name is Jouni? Everybody knows Americans are the best traders!! LOL!!!

  25. JJHarmen

    What would the day be without a nice fat opening gap up for the SM? That has been a very regular occurrence for the past several months, it seems. Does that mean the Europeans and Asians are buying American stocks overnight? Maybe it’s just the Swiss CB and their printing press at work?

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