30 thoughts on “DANGEROUS TO BE ON THE SIDELINES

  1. Goild

    Gary,

    15% chances for the SM to keep going up.
    65% to channel sideways till the Summer.
    30% to drop a good deal.

    UQQQ is at $16.57.
    I need to make $2000 bucks out of it.
    It can easily go to $21.
    About $4 bucks.
    I need 500 UQQQ shares.
    May get them first thing tomorrow morning.
    Very little risk here.

    1. vin

      Hello Goild! Nice to see you are enjoying.

      btw will the scenario you predict change if you had a couple more glasses of some nice wine?

      Cheers!

  2. Goild

    Oh Vin,

    It has been a few weeks that I do not drink wine for health reasons.
    I miss it.
    Though, with a glass of wine I would add women to the trading scenario 🙂
    I love them.
    Probably, I would have had the numbers add to 100%.
    Thus let say 20% chances for a good drop.
    Good night!

    1. vin

      Goild, I am truly sorry to hear about your health issue. Recover soon and get back to your original self.

      About stock market, I partially agree with you that there is a good chance of a drop though I don’t know how to calculate the probability. I wouldn’t mind the drop, an opportunity to load up.

      Then the markets will go higher. At present I subscribe to Gary’s theory simply because he has been quite right so far.

      Good luck

  3. Americano

    It’s true. This summer will show the race.
    Bitcoin vs SM race for 30 or 40K.
    Even with my sea sickness of late. Rough seas will calm & with January FINALLY ending……mirth & merriment will be returning soon to the……
    Mayflower!

    1. Jim Dandy

      New ¨busted parabola¨ lows this morning, 40K is going to be difficult to reach starting from 2K again. Gary was right, you will ride it right to zero some day bc you believe in the story too much and are ignoring what parabolas do.

      I don´t want to give you false hope because it would be better to sell now, but it will be 7-10 years before chitcoin comes back, if it ever does. You should have learned that when you chased the silver bubble. Like a battered wife, as you have referred to the situation, they usually don´t forget such terrible events, but here you are making the same mistake again.

    2. RTTPD

      ” It’s true. This summer will show the race.
      Bitcoin vs SM race for 30 or 40K.
      Even with my sea sickness of late. Rough seas will calm & with January FINALLY ending……mirth & merriment will be returning soon to the……
      Mayflower! ”

      I see the Mayflower going to the bottom of the Bermuda Triangle in a violent whirlpool – but before she goes down….. you and Teddy boy are going to walk the plank.

    3. vin

      “It’s true. This summer will show the race.” ??????

      Americano:

      Do you really believe that they are both headed down in a hurry? Oooops!

      Looks like btc is winning the race at 9k with hands down. At that rate it will be below 1k before the end of the year.

  4. jacob2

    Fake SM bubble? The markets been on steroids for the last 6 months but are we really now in the bubble phase? My suspicion is that the Real deal bubble may lay years down the road after a significant correction and a long consolidation.

  5. FoolsGold

    Kudos to Gary for his calls on the stock market over the past year.

    If we apply cycle theory to the accuracy of Gary’s calls it looks like we may see him hit another horrendously bad call this year or next like this “dangerous” call he made previously: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2013/02

    I thought Gary indicated that he is not risking his own money in the stock market because he has more than enough money to live on for the rest of his life? Seems hypocritical to me for him to be telling others to do what he is not doing himself.

    1. carlvan

      You have a good memory my friend 😉
      I guess one can’t be right all the time…probability and statistic apply everywhere in this universe

      1. carlvan

        I agree with you; and it is the same with some millions of consultants in the world of business: they are paid to give advices, irrelevant to what they are really doing when they encounter similar situations/case studies. Now, not thinking of Gary, how many newsletter writers do you think are real traders? 50%, 10%? or maybe 1 or 2%…still, some are good (a very few), other are not

    2. Gary Post author

      I greatly underestimated the power of the printing press. It caused the 4 year cycle to evolve into a 7 year cycle. Everyone made this same mistake so I don’t think you can fault me for not seeing just how strongly QE would warp everything. No one saw it.

      I won’t be making that mistake again.

      Of course no one could have even lost a dime as I would never short the stock market.

      I do trade my own money in the market, I just don’t need to go all in. I rarely trade more than 10% and I’m only taking trades in the stock market right now. Like I’ve been saying I’ve done everything but beat people over the head with a stick to get them to focus on stocks while we are in the bubble phase.

      In stocks you have central bank protection. In other areas it’s much more difficult trading as you often have to deal with manipulation as well as more volatile conditions.

  6. Gary Post author

    Bitcoin is doing exactly what I predicted would happen. Almost no one was able to control greed and sell into the parabola with price stretched 240% above the 200 DMA. Then as the parabola collapses they are doing what everyone that gets caught in a bubble does. They remain in denial expecting price to recover, because that’s what it’s always done before. They will remain in this stage until they’ve not only lost all their gains but a big chunk of their initial investment. At that point their dreams of riches will be gone as well as their retirement so they will refuse to sell and just hang on hoping something will save them.

    In the end the bigger the bubble the bigger the bear market. As bitcoin was nothing more than a Ponzi scheme and the largest one in history it will ultimately go back to its intrinsic value of $0.

    1. Gary Post author

      Assuming current trends will stay in motion indefinitely is a guaranteed path to ruin. It’s what caused the the bitcoin investors to get caught.

      The only thing the current weather report can do is tell you where you are today. It says nothing about tomorrow. But anticipating tomorrow is what investing is all about.

  7. GBull33

    Bitcoin will shave an extra 1000 off shortly after breaking a recent energy coil. Once the fear phase begins, this bubble could easily reach sub 5K pretty quick.

    1. Jim Dandy

      and kRIPPLE is below a buck again, look out below as the blockchain stocks suggest more downside coming in the near term.

  8. Nada

    Looks like oil shorts may have to cut their vacation “short”. In other news, hurst cycle analysts underwater.

    1. GBull33

      OIL has one giant boot that it likes to kick shorts right between the legs periodically. Christian is however a Shaolin monk and takes this with stride

    2. isavage

      Attachment

      Nada – Still loving this chart you posted in Dec. fits with my call also at the time for the “Good Entry point” for the banks once CME & CBOE futures in place.

      Its time for the Crypto believers to start the accumulation here 😉

      Out of interest where did you find that chart?

  9. Goild

    Attachment

    Good morning,

    Let us make money today.
    It seems that JNUG will hit today again $15.2?
    It is amazing how hard the miners are being bitten.

  10. Goild

    Toady we have a textbook perfect example of a coil in JNUG.
    The coil had to unwind to somehow meet GOLD uprising.

    Though the manipulators have been punishing the miners/JNUG.
    They are well behind.
    Perhaps they are in a coil to also unwind, to unwind to heaven.
    Hopefully so.

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