156 thoughts on “Gold Psychology

  1. Bob

    Thanks Gary, I’ll probably be cashing in my SOX sometime next week on the Challenge and this will help me determine when to buy back in again. Depends on how far along gold gets at that point.

  2. jake

    AKA spring.

    With one of the most powerful moves in a long time can that momentum continue out of this half cycle to be extreming right translated with a breakout and quick retest?

  3. earthkitten

    Gary. With one of the strongest bull markets ever & the Nasdaq headed
    to at least 10,000, would it just be more simple & prudent to put more in
    stocks & forget about oil & gold. Not that money can’t be made there. It
    just seems easier money can be made in the stock market right now.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve been trying to convince people for months and months to focus most or all of their capital in the stock market, at least until the bubble phase is finished.

      1. Pennystocks

        Hi Gary, you said a few weeks back if or when gold goes to $5,000 that the GDXJ or the HUI or GDX index would go to 2000 ? I forgot which one you suggested it would be ?

  4. Steffmeister

    I totally agree with Gary if you invert the lines drawn in the chart 😛 Gold is not in a Bull just yet.

    /Steff from SMACKville

    1. Steffmeister

      I call it the anti-S pattern … big move is coming soon and yes it could be a move to the upside, but do not count on it.

      Better safe than sorry imo!

      1. Autobahn

        Been reading your comments lately.
        Just general blubber no substance. No smart ideas just dumb s…t

        1. cazabrujas

          Gary’s comments and responses are worth it, though. There is always a pearl of wisdom or two in every log entry. Start collecting them and in a year you’ll have a lot of useful material to fish on your own instead of getting the fish handed to you.

        2. Steffmeister

          I do not even remember your posts, that says it all, just asphalt and concrete for brains …

    2. Gary Post author

      Gold started a bull market when the bear market ended and it ended in Dec. 2015. We even completed the baby bull rally. That’s all the proof anyone needs that the bear is over. But on top of that gold has now made two higher yearly cycle lows. This year it’s going to make a higher yearly cycle high.

      Most everyone missed the baby bull because they were afraid to pull the trigger after a 4 year bear market. Now everyone is afraid to pull the trigger after a year long basing phase. Both were the single best time to be buying but human nature prevented most people from doing so.

      Like I always say, human nature never changes.

      1. Steffmeister

        And that human nature is you Gary, let us see how plays out in Gold for the next two months…

        1. Gary Post author

          The most valuable thing you can do to speed up your trading progress is to buy a subscription to sentimentrader.

          The second most valuable thing would be to toss the EW nonsense in the trash where it belongs.

          1. Steffmeister

            I will consider it if I am wrong, would you consider to learn EW if I am right 😛 I am expecting Gold to move into a “anti-seasonal”-pattern soon, give it a week or 2.

            The EW pattern suggest a deflationary spike down to finish this off. Trump wants inflation, FED wants a deflationary spike to shave wealth from the middleclass and further enrich the banksters.

            Who is the most powerful FED or Trump? Sorry to say this but I think Trump is part of the “cabal”. His teenager twitter posts is just an act to confuse and mislead people.

            Behind the curtain the Clintons/Bushes/Trumps are the same financial and political elite.

  5. Jelly Belly

    Thanks for a very informative video. This kind of information really helps me understand how to think about the market and become a better trader. It also gives me a lot of insight into the process you use to place trades and makes me trust your strategy more.

  6. Duuuuuude

    Just doing some guessing here comparing the magnitudes of index’x to equal 10,000 NASDAQ:

    10,000 NASDAQ = 9400 NASDAQ 100
    10,000 NASDAQ = 35,500 Dow Jones
    10,000 NASDAQ = 3850 S&P 500

    Pick Your Poison

  7. Spanglish Inquisition

    Gary. Say you had some leveraged nugt/Gdx options March and june expiry. Would you look to sell these on a breach of the September highs and then reenter on a retracement or just let them run?

    Curious how you would play that.

    1. loneranger

      You might need to be a subscriber to get the Mr. Savage’s crystal ball to provide that answer 😕

  8. Nada

    Bitcoin gartley update.
    My guess is, ted showed up to call the exact top on his buy recommendation over the weekend. Sort of like he bought GBTC at exact top;

    https yazo.com/321e05256e8e815ef0658b0e5a99379a

    1. ted

      Call me at the end of the year. I will be trading in 30% of my $40K+ bitcoin for good old us dollars.

      1. vin

        ted, there are others who say that it will exceed 100k! If so, why would sell it at below the market price? But, then I guess every coin has two sides. Looks like the investors of bitcoin are no exception.

      2. Jim Dandy

        Ted, as long as you can ride it to $6k first, you might be right about the $40K, or maybe it just languishes and drifts lower for a couple years from the $6K level. The fast money has already been made short term, even though it´s down 30% from the highs, take your profits. You probably won´t want to buy it back at $6k, but today have no problem staying in at $15K, bc easy money messes with psychology.

        1. vin

          It will go down to 6k and then bounce back? I like that attitude of certainty. Let us know how you do.

  9. SLEP

    Gary, I’m a little confused. You say that EW is a bunch of nonsense, yet in your video you show a chart of gold that has five waves up. Isn’t that EW?

    1. Gary Post author

      No matter how hard I squint I can’t conjure five waves up in gold. This is what’s wrong with EW. Practitioners start with an expectation and then imagine or delete waves as needed to complete the expectation.

      1. Steffmeister

        no the open up a new layer of waves, it’s like an onion lyer by layer. Good EW like Roasan a Swede is very good, I am investing my pensionfunds according to his calls and he is much more right than wrong, every wave is measured with FIB-levels. Were the EW go haywire is at trendshifts, but thats the case here aswell as in many other places.

        1. Gary Post author

          I called the top in September within pennies. I called the bottom on Dec. 13, and as you will recall I warned traders for months that we probably wouldn’t get the final low until the FOMC meeting.

          I called the vertical move in stocks as it started out of the last ICL in August when everyone else was looking for a September/October crash.

          So just exactly how did we miss the trendshifts?

          That’s why one uses cycles and sentiment so they can spot trend changes.

          1. palobar

            Sorry, the September inflection point along with most of the key swing highs/lows of 2017 was already shared here three months before you saw it on your screen. Yes, you called the December low which turned out to be a nice move.

      2. SLEP

        I’m referring to your projected five waves up in gold that you drew on the chart. Three impulse waves and two corrective waves, adding up to a total of five waves.

  10. Jim Dandy

    Thanks for the video Gary, glad to be on board. When you decide to take off leverage, I will continue to hold a large majority of my positions, that is the only difference in our ideas. I am in miners for the longer haul, at least those 3 intermediate cycles you think will occur. I realize it is not likely to play out like 2016 where iners went straight up, so I will have to ride through probably pullbacks, but I am comfortable thinking that ultimately I get much higher prices to sell into.

    When I try time around daily cycles, or even the first ICL, it just adds too much stress. I invariably buy back too soon if I booked big profits bc I don´t like being out of such a strong market, thus i might save a few bucks but ride them down anyway, or a worse thought is they don´t stop and I never get to own them again! I prefer to keep my big positive marks and even forfeit some back to the markets, it makes it much easier to hold for the bigger bull market, not just bull cycle.

    1. Jim Dandy

      By the way, I am not in leveraged etfs, so that makes my decision easier not to ring the register. I am heavy into indvidual miners and the etf SILJ, but looking to add more into pullbacks when they occur. It worked well in 2016, but back the I didn´t get many opportunities to add since pullbacks didn´t last more than a day.

  11. Jim Dandy

    One thing that suggests caution short term is guys like JordanRoyburn (not a good timer) have recently started buying miners into this strength, after forecasting new lows in 2018. I bet these latecomers get tested and shaken sooner rather than later.

  12. Jim Dandy

    Now that we are solidly into the New Year, bitcoin can make it´s trip down to 6K….looks like it´s starting today.

  13. Jim Dandy

    And Ripple down 25% in the last 24 hours. At this rate it will be zero by Thursday, so much for the crypto wealth, nothing left but bagHODLers.

  14. Nada

    Dixie will most likely fill the gap. We are getting close to the timing band for a DCL hunt in gold, so it all depends on the price action of the dollar.

    I count 17 trading days since ICL or 27 days, so a pull back is due soon enough.

    Gartley update;

    Dixie gap fill?

    EURUSD Swing HIgh


    1. Gary Post author

      I would say more likely a HCL as the normal duration for gold cycles has evolved to 35-45 days.

      1. Nada

        It will be interesting to see what this IC brings as far as DC durations. The last IC was very skewed due to the “fire and furry tweet”. Then we had a sideways move for over a month. Going back two IC’s, the durations were a bit stretched as you mentioned. However, with the past IC being shorter to make up for the previous stretched IC’s, its surely a guesstimate this IC.

  15. Jim Dandy

    Cryptocarnage. I might have to move my Ripple to zero a day or two earlier. Bitclowns should be frothing at the mouth to buy more down here.

  16. Gary Post author

    My next door neighbor is a performer in the LeReve show. She said all the cast are buying bitcoin.

    If that’s not unsophisticated money I don’t know what is.

    The same idiots that lost everything in real estate are now going to do it again in crypto currencies.

    1. Nada

      What is even more hilarious .. Even with the extra headaches of having to use bitcoin to buy other cryptos and then abnormal delays in buying/selling, these nuts are still going all in.

    2. Jim Dandy

      Last week I told you guys about my friend (but terrible investing history) that popped up on whatsapp asking my about cryptos. His first trade was in a coin called 1377 (or 1337, dont recall) and he doubled his money overnight, cashed out and took profits.

      He told me his only mistake was not to buy lots more. So this is how Gary will be correct that not only will they get losses, but they get wiped out because they go all in thinking they know something. This guy was also caught holding lots of speculative FL condos (bought pre-construction) in the 2007 bubble, and he is back at it again.

      Parabolas are to be sold.

    3. TheSmartMoney


      Why should we not by Bitcoin now? We need to earn our “riches”.

      From YouTube:
      Published on Jan 8, 2018

      Now is the time to EARN your Crypto Riches!! If you have any “dry powder” left you can pick your WINNERS for 2018 cheaply!

  17. Gary Post author

    This is what I discussed in the video. In real time a pullback that occurs early in a new intermediate cycle doesn’t look like a pullback. It looks like the trend is reversing. So all the people that said they were waiting for a pullback to buy will get cold feet and fail to pull the trigger. Then the trend will resume and they will have missed their opportunity.

    Even if you recognize that there is an opportunity occurring, in real time it’s virtually impossible to time a perfect entry. You don’t know when the pullback is going to be over and the next leg up will start. Invariably most people wait too long and then get left behind when the rally resumes.

    1. Gary Post author

      One bit of advice I can offer is that during the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle price doesn’t stay oversold very long before the next leg up begins. I don’t know if the 5 day RSI can reach oversold or not. But if it does I wouldn’t wait any longer before pulling the trigger.

    2. DrJ314

      A swing off the low formed by the pullback may also provide a decent second entry opportunity, allowing a close stop, with the usual caveats of potentially being whipsawed out of the position….

  18. JJHarmen

    It doesn’t take much weakness in gold for the miners to sell down Must be a nervous bunch.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s all part of the psychology of gold. During the early weeks of the new intermediate cycle traders are unable to control anxiety. At the top of an intermediate cycle the exact opposite happens. Traders are unable to control greed.

      1. rborna

        It is logical to get nervous because unless you are sure this is an Hcl, doubt starts to creep in if this is a Dcl or worse. No one knows 100% , no one has a crystal ball. It is matter of probability and how confident you feel about the Hcl call. No mystery!
        If people would be confident this is just an HCL then very few people would get anxious except people who do not have much risk tolerance

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s unlikely an intermediate cycle would top in only 3 weeks. Even in a bear market rallies usually last 6 to 10 weeks before topping. We’re not in a bear market anymore. This rally should last 12 to 14 weeks before topping.

      1. Gary Post author

        I even warned people that the metals were likely to experience a pull back this week. Now that it’s occurring we already have people trying to call a top.

        I’ll say it again: At the beginning of an intermediate cycle most traders can’t control anxiety. At the top of an intermediate cycle they can’t control greed.

    1. Gary Post author

      Judging by past predictions you bought at the recent top and have now sold for a loss.

      Cap this is what most Traders do and how they lose money in an advancing Market.

  19. allthatglitters

    more power to you ted if you’ve made some nice $$ and want to cash it in, but Gary knows what he’s talking about

    1. Nada

      Depends on how you define the “TOP”. We have been expecting a HCL and or DCL since last wee. I posted charts reflecting the duration of the previous daily cycles with this daily cycle timing band. Nothing new there. Currently the miners at their 10ma. If that holds, then mostly a HCL. If not, a hunt for DCL may occur.

      Today is a swing high in the miners, so at least you waited to call a top on the swing. Now define your top. Are you expecting a short term pullback or are you expecting new lows. There is quite a bit of difference between those.

  20. Gary Post author

    During the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle price tends to bounce pretty quickly even if the 3 day RSI reaches oversold. GDXJ has reached that point. There probably isn’t much further to go before the next leg up begins.

  21. Goild

    I am holding 500 UVXY shares.
    UVXY is becoming very ripe to make big bucks.
    Who has the guts to plunge in?

    1. Gary Post author

      How much money do you have to lose playing with that thing before you quit trying to short the bubble?

      On top of stocks being in a bubble, there is wicked decay in the VIX ETF’s, and there is going to be market protection while the Fed raises rates. Even if we do get some kind of correction the Fed isn’t going to let it go very far.

      Without a monster pullback none of the VIX ETF’s are ever going to recover.

    1. faz

      I’m waiting for Gary’s “hair on fire running through an explosives factory” comment again. Always makes me LOL. (Didn’t Richard Prior actually run through the streets naked while on fire once ? Crazy stuff.)
      Wonderful morning today.

    1. m0ntana

      We need equivalent of mini blood bath phase in metals. $15-16 jnug would be a perfect place to go long.

      1. Nada

        We had a blood bath phase about a month ago, no? If this is a HCL, then the damage might be about done. If it’s a DCL, then .786 retracement seems possible in GDX/GDXJ.

        1. Nada

          Lets wait for the close and see if Dixie can close above 10ma to signal that maybe the DCL is in for the dollar.

  22. ted

    This is going to be so frustrating because JNUG is going below $12 again.

    Again, I am calling an intermediate top, meaning this recent run up will give it all back, and then some!

    1. vin

      Are you serious? It will be a surprise indeed. But, then gold/golds are full of surprises all the time.

      Talking about surprises, would you be surprised if jnug exceeds 21 in less than 3 weeks?

      1. ted

        There is a two year penchant in GDX that clearly shows that it is tagging the upper resistance after a false breakdown and then counter rally.

        GDX is going down. And in a BIG way in the coming weeks!

        1. vin

          Are jnug and gdx the same? Or, are you saying that one cannot go down without the other? Now you really have some of confused.

          Which one do you predict will go down? jnug or gdx?

        2. Nada

          Damn Ted, I see your crystal ball arrived at your parents house. You must include a picture of you room in the basement with the setup.

        3. Spanglish Inquisition

          So, What trade have you bought? Did you short gold with JDST? What was your jnug entry/exit price and percentage of portfolio?

          Post your trades and your analysis ….. or shsss.

  23. primetime

    Just like I said in the middle of December, everyone is all giddy and excited about the metals and JNUG and I said give it 3-4 weeks and they would be jumping ship like rats. Here we go again. Same bull, just different day. Like Montana says, we need another blood bath equivalent to go long!? What for a couple week run? I am old turkey but will be surprised as hell if this sector takes off this year. A couple weeks is all you ever get before the fleecing…where you lose a months gains in two hours.

  24. Alexandru Popovici

    As I’ve mentioning during the last 6w, I think truth lies btw what Gary and Ted say: gold/miners to go up (after this several-day natural day correction, as USX goes up in a new DC) to ~1400 and then back down to YCL while EUR falls to its YCL.

    But first…this several-day correction (mild DCL of gold/miners) sets the stage for the bounce to 1400 as EUR goes to YCH and DXY to YCL.

    1. ted

      The bloodbath in the miners has begun. It will take a couple weeks to realize it, as we may zig-zag but it’s certain now.

      1. Nada

        Lol. You are a funny guy. Especially with the “certain” comment. I asked above for you to expand on what you meant by a top (in regard to timing duration) – maybe you didn’t see, but now you have committed yourself with these new comments. Thanks 🙂

        1. ted

          You can laugh at me in a few weeks when I come back to remind you of this call.

          I said enough. The miners are going to make a 52 week low soon!

          1. m0ntana

            Stop lying dude, we know that you’re long gold lol A lot of trolls used to do during good ol’ days of Yahoo! board – trying to be cute working your reverse psychology

  25. 1970confused

    Another loser coming out…..now its TED talking shit about the miners, who the hell are these guys that show up on these sites????

    1. Nada

      Ted has been here for a while. He has been providing financial advise on bitcoin until of late. Now he is dabbling in forecasting the senior and junior miners.

      Ted has told us..

      1. Millennial’s “get” crypto.
      2. The young will rule the world soon
      3. Cryptos will replace the dollar
      4. Buying cryptos is like buying real estate in the Bay area in the 1960s.
      5. Gold is OVER.
      6. This time is different
      7. He made a buy recommendation of GBTC at the exact TOP.

      I could probably dig up some more, but I suspect Ted is just having some fun.

  26. Gary Post author

    Folks, a bloodbath phase comes at the end of an intermediate cycle not during a half cycle low… or even during a first daily cycle low.

    I’ve given everyone very good information how to trade this move. It’s up to you if you want to use it.

    During the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle price doesn’t stay oversold very long before the next leg up begins. So if you couldn’t control anxiety at the bottom three weeks ago you are now getting a second chance.

    The question is will you be able to control anxiety now and pull the trigger?

    1. RTTPD

      Gary —-

      Maybe some of the trolls here calling a top in gold are actually both subscribers and stealth employees from Sunshine Profits…..

  27. Nada

    Algos sold GDX and bought GDXJ GLD at close;

    GDX -188m
    GDXJ +82m
    GLD +16m

    Read into what you will.

  28. ted

    Right on 1, 2, 3, 5, and 6. Millenials do understand crypto. They will rule the world someday. Money will become digital someday. Gold is over as a big hedge play, but I play the swings. And this time is different.

    Never recommended GBTC at the top, because the top is not in.

    Also never said crypto’s are like Bay area real estate.

    1. Nada

      “Also never said crypto’s are like Bay area real estate.”

      Nonsense Ted, you said exactly that:

      November 26, 2017 at 9:42 am
      I hate to say it, but I will. I really will. Here it goes… Gary, this time it’s different.
      (This is like buying real estate in the Bay Area in the 1960’s knowing what will happen in 50 years.)”

      Ted saying that the young will rule the world vs someday the young will grow older and then rule, is not exactly the same. How many Presidents or PM’s around the globe, do you see in charge that are in their 20s? Lets start with the most powerful man in the world. POTUS = 71 years of age.

      1. Gary Post author

        There’s a reason why young men don’t often hold positions of power, or are allowed to make important decisions. They rarely make money in the markets either. Why? Too much testosterone.

        Testosterone, the root of all evil in the world. Unfortunately also necessary for the propagation of the species.

        Once we get older, and our testosterone levels drop, rational thinking becomes much easier.

        1. ocram

          Absolutely true ,young men should be castrated because we are too many in this world and also because young men are more like animals than humans.
          Chemical castration and the earth will breath!

        2. RTTPD

          ”Testosterone, the root of all evil in the world. Unfortunately also necessary for the propagation of the species.

          Once we get older, and our testosterone levels drop, rational thinking becomes much easier. ”

          Aw-shucks Gary….
          You know test–natural and synthetic— is a good thing…..those in their 50’s pumping out 225 lb cleans gota be producing a little more than geekish millennial crypto buyers. ; }

  29. loneranger

    Couldn’t resist trying to catch a falling knife. Bot ERY options last week thinking the timing was right. Looks like I will need to have restraint and patience for a little while longer. Read article today that says Biotechs, Energy and Techs do very well near the ends of SM cycle.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would suggest you trade oil instead of the energy stocks. The energy stocks have been somewhat disconnected from the price of oil for many months now.

      Oil is late enough in its intermediate cycle that it’s going to be due for a multiweek correction starting any day now. But it’s anyone’s guess as to what the energy stocks might do.

  30. Steffmeister

    January 1, 2018 at 9:04 pm
    Is the market going to throw us a curveball here?

    palobar wrote 8th of September, how about the 8th of Januari?

    Steff has mental stability and being like really smart 😛

    Donald J. Trump
    ….Actually, throughout my life, my two greatest assets have been mental stability and being, like, really smart

    1. Gary Post author

      In case you didn’t notice the correction started on the 3rd.

      I warned everyone in the video that this week could be a week of consolidation to digest the gains of the 1st 3 weeks.

  31. Americano

    Mid February, I call it my “St Valentines Day Massacre” is when I got soooooooo revolted by the non-correlation of JNUG to Jr Miners ( it was later found that JNUG started correlating with NUGT type companies) I started packing.,….
    For The Mayflower.
    Those who stayed behind are loyal subjects – that does not mean they have to be SUBJECTED.
    If any of you notice funny business in the future with miners…..simply step aside like a matador does to a bull.
    Gary has a course plotted for you with the boom in NASDAQ as protected by TPTB. Put your sals into the wind, not against & leave the miner abstraction/chicanery aside.

    1. Jim Dandy

      That is why I don´t buy leveraged etfs, all the speculative, highly emotional money goes there so anything can happen and they lose their predictability. Now that same type money is in cryptobeans, except with the cryptos they don´t actually have anything underlying the ïnvestment¨, no business with earnings, assets, etc., which makes it much harder to come back once they get smoked. It would scare me that there are now close to 2000 cryptocoin options out there and growing daily, no restrictions or barriers to entry at all. When new ones come out, it certainly is not good for the rest of the coins. How about I just copy verbatim bitcoin and just call it 2.0? Pricing and everything the same, maybe all the new people rushing to crypto see its identical, but still cheap and thus with lots of leverage, and they think they can see the future since they saw bitcoin go vertical…who is going to want original bitcoin then, certainly not as many speculators.

      Then there are the people at HIVE talking ¨virgin¨coins and how they are worth more bc gauranteed never used in illegitimate business, are your coins virgin, or old ¨dirty¨ones? this suggests two markets for bitcoin (or more) in the futures, and that also isn´t good for the little guy attracted to bitcoin bc the ¨level playing field¨that attracted them to crytptos to begin with. All sorts of ways are springing up to separate the fools that think they found something new from their money. The newest vehicle has changed to cryptos, but the scams (bitconnect an obvious ponzi, for example) are the same, so no, this time is not different.

      1. Jim Dandy

        My example on making Bitcoin 2.0 is possible bc Bitcoin dosen´t own anything proprietary. If it was identical in every way, people would assume also that buying at 6 cents would be getting in on the ground floor. After all, 2.0 is limited to only 21 million coins, so get ém while they´re cheap!!!

  32. Pennystocks

    Hi Gary , Do you see at least a 3 to 4 week correction in the major indexes when we get the ICL correction ?


    1. Gary Post author

      Hard to say, the intermediate cycle is already on week 20 so it’s possible it could be another one of those two week quick drops into the ICL and it’s over

  33. palobar

    My timing method uses among other the most important numbers and irrational constants that are responsible for the beauty, life expansion, human creativity and symmetry that surrounds us. The dates are based on long-term counts >1000 CD which most of the times have a strong impact on gold. In the past, I explained that the key is how the market responds to those dates. When price meets a time window, it will do one of the following:
    (a) change trend
    (b) pause
    (c) accelerate
    (d) go through (less likely)

    This approach is interested in the big moves, it is not a shot-gun approach. Usually for every month, I will calculate 1 to 3 time-windows. I am afraid that you are not showing the full picture for 2017. The truth is I did a great identifying most of the major turning points well in advance. Note that turning point means (a-d). Keep in mind that I am not a full time trader. Sometimes I might be busy with my work and I might miss some swing points. So, for 2017, the major swing points were the following:

    (1) 27 Feb High (private email – market update to friends)
    (2) 13 Mar Low
    (3) 17 Apr High (private email – market update to friends)
    (4) 09 May Low
    (5) 05 Jun High
    (6) 10 Jul Low (shared in advance in the SMT blog)
    (7) 09 Sep High (shared in advance in the SMT blog)
    (8) 06 Oct Low (shared in advance in the SMT blog)
    (9) 27 Nov High
    (10) 12 Dec Low (I had the 15th)

    I am not always focused on gold, either because I am watching another market or simply I am too busy with my main work. As you can see I had captured some of most important swing points of the year well in advance.

    Regarding, my August short trade I had a time window. Gold was trading a triple top area. So I had a nice risk/reward. Before the trade plays out one does not know which of the four outcomes (a-d) will be the right one. Its a game of probabilities. I went short hoping for a pullback. Gold trading sideways a few days but eventually it smashed through. On that day I immediately took my loss and reversed my position. Gold peaked at $1362. I went short at $1355. Perhaps you have forgotten, but then I had emphasized the importance of the low of that particular week. Look at your chart carefully. Gold made 4 tops and one small congestion area at that level.

    Regarding the Nov’17 high. Yes it came 5 days later. But it did not go >$8 above the prior’s days high (the two large bars I had mentioned). You also forgot that I also wrote then that Gold will turn down, which is what happened.

    On the 12/12 low, I mentioned that Gold has put some major lows around here, so shorts should be carefull. I admit that the move was much stronger that I expected.

    With respect to Gold it is one of the best timing (cycles) approaches I have seen around. In fact, if there was a challenge, where any of the participants would be able to use ONLY their cycle tools (ie no other indicators, or sentiment reports), I doubt whether they would be able to perform better. So, it is not perfect but is very good and when combined properly with other sentiment tools risk managment one can do quite well. The timing approach (ICL cycles) that you are using cannot light a candle next to this.

    The beauty here is with this approach you can understand how each major high or low over the years is connected with each other in terms or price and time. That’s why I was able to call the july’2016 high within two hours! Even if you see the market ignore a date and simply go through, it means alot.

    This is not a shot-gun approach. Remember how many scenarios you played when gold bottomed on the 12th? The cycles you are using are a shot-gun method. That is why you can never highlight in advance a time window. Instead, you will always point to the FMOC meeting or the next unemployment report.
    To make clear, risk management is the key. You can use the basics and make much more money from others you are using the best approaches with poor RM.

    I am not selling anything. My intention was only to help. When I first posting dates, I wrote that everyone should consider my dates but follow Gary’s work. I wish I had done better. If my comments are not useful or sound confusing by some of the people, I will stop doing that.

    1. Gary Post author

      Can’t light a candle…

      My strategy is running circles around your shotgun methods. I picked almost the exact bottom last December, almost the exact top in February. The exact top in September, and almost the exact bottom last month. And I have the results in my real time trading to prove it.

      1. palobar

        ”I called this…I called that…”. You are acting a little child. Dont forget, you are selling a subscription. I am not selling anything.
        – Feb top (I called it EXACTLY days before).
        – April top (I called it EXACTLY days before)
        – July low (I called the WEEK many days before)
        – Sep high (I called the week exactly 3 months before)

        The July ’16 was the MAJOR TOP in gold that everyone is paying attention now. I called that top within 2 hours and went short at $1362. That was one of the sharpest declines during the bear market. You saw Gold then as being early in its ICL.
        In 2012, 2013, 2014 Gold made its major highs that everyone felt that gold is breaking out. Each time you saw Gold going to $1800-$1900. Instead Gold collapsed.

        My approach is not a predictive model. It is the best approach around to highlight those time windows (+/- 3 days) well in advance were Gold made do one of the four things I describe above (a-d). The dates are very important because they are geometric functions of moves generated decades ago. The dates are based on advanced geometry that they dont teach at school.

        My point was that
        (1) you should tone it down
        (2) we all make mistakes
        (3) you are not perfect (unlike what you claim). You also make mistakes (2012, 2013, 2014, 2016 tops)
        (4) You are a good trader. You make money. Thats why some guys are still here all these years.

        1. Gary Post author

          What good is a model that predicts gold may do one of four things?

          How does one know what trade to put on?

          Markets don’t move based on geometry. They are driven by human emotions. Didn’t we learn from LTCM that science isn’t the way to riches in the stock market?

          Enter the challenge and start making real time calls and we’ll judge whether your approach has any merit.

          1. palobar

            It is NOT a predictive model. The model determines KEY dates based on advanced geometry. The market can respond in any of the four ways. Based on the Gold’s s position at each time you can assess what it more probable.

            ‘..Market’s dont move based on geometry…’
            You need to do some serious homework and stop looking at the 3day RSI. Everything that surrounds you is a form of geometry. Markets are driven by universal consciousness. Geometry is the language of universal consciousness.

            I dont have any time for your challenge right now. I have achieved much higher performance in the past when I had the time to do that. I am preparing to come back.

    2. victor

      I’m sure every trader watching if you or anyone point to an important date. For now you point on Jan 17th. Will see. It’s time for gold to make a move up to that day.

  34. Gary Post author

    Not a great sign for bitcoin. Just as soon as short term sentiment reached bullish levels price turned back down. That tends to be what happens when an asset is in a larger degree decline.

  35. loneranger

    I about fell out of my chair tonight when my 28yr old son (electrical engineer) tells me he has setup his new computer to mine Byte Coin. He already has 100 coins and plans to stop at 1,000, keep them for 8 yrs and hopefully cash them in for big money.

    Time to sell the farm!

    1. Spanglish Inquisition

      Actually lone ranger… Mining coins is one of the best strategies when it comes to all these things. Spend electricity to make returns. Sell them and cash out. I have friends making an average of 17$ a day from 900$ computers.

  36. roadrunner

    i have followed your posts here (and some on inventing.com) and you have done extremely well in your dates. i appreciate that you share the information here. i am sure there are others as well. Thanks.

    1. palobar

      I appreciate your kind words. I will try to do better and make sure that any comments in the future are helpful. Like I have mentioned in the past, everyone should follow Gary’s work and if not already, get a subscription. Unlike most newsletter providers, Gary is a real trader. If I post a date, look at where Gold is trading. If other technical and sentiment factors are present, then you have an extra layer that could increase the probability of your trade. Not every date will give a major high or low. However, most of the major highs/lows will be included in the set of dates. Good luck.

  37. Jim Dandy

    It would be nice to get a quick jolt lower in GDX down below $23 this morning to give me a chance to add to my miners. Both the 200 day MA and the 50 WEEK MA are at $22.72 and $22.86, respectively. I´m not sure GDX would stop there but seems as good a place as any. I like buying pullbacks but didn´t do anything yesterday, hoping for a couple down days in a row.

  38. Jim Dandy

    The best bubbles always have a great story that makes so much sense. In 2007 is was ¨buy land, they aren´t making any more of it¨, now it´s crytptos will wrest power from the central banks and thy have limited supply, suggesting a shortage. LOL, there isn´t any shortage of cryptos, scammers are rushing in to fill that void!

  39. vin

    ted, you must be a real smart one. Gold is down. How could you have predicted so accurately?

    It would have been great for you if btc wasn’t down so much today.

    I guess one cannot be right on all counts.. 50% is not bad. Is it? Unfortunately you say you own btc and not golds. Did you short golds? Maybe next time.

  40. Steffmeister

    No worries Gary I will post my Bear Silver X12 trades here, so folks can see my trades. I am a honest man, but if you do not trust the values, look at the timing of my trades instead:


    I am the only one here going against the herd sentiment wise, trading real money in a real account.

    So far so good 🙂

    ted is disqualified bcos he likes BTC haha … just kidding, an independet thinking brain has my respect!

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