256 thoughts on “GOLD UPDATE – HALF CYCLE LOW?

    1. xaurado

      I wonder if the eventual panic selling in crypto will have adverse effect on the tech sector, especially on Nvidia and AMD. Maybe that will trigger the ICL in stocks.

  1. Nada

    Ted makes a fool of himself, once again.

    January 9, 2018 at 1:09 pm

    Today’s close in GDX/JNUG says it all. The rally in the miners is over. If you bought on Dec. 13, it’s time to protect profits

    1. Nada

      And add his fool friend Steffie to the mix. All day yesterday we heard “be careful very ominous out there”, lol.

      January 9, 2018 at 12:35 pm
      There is a risk that Gold is on it’s way to brake out of trading range to the downside.

      1. carlvan

        Hopefully nobody will have followed those out of thin air opinions…my only regret is that I could have added to position in JNUG by end of session yesterday. But I am not greedy, just happy with what I have, thanks to Gary. And when he will advise deleveraging and going back to GDX, I will. Probably I will re-subscribe to his premium letter as well.

      1. Nada

        Yep, I thought it might test the TL and then finish its drop. No dice. Now markets are selling off, so that will help gold.

  2. carlvan

    It looks like, parallel to the resume of gold rise, stock market are this time correcting for good, at least in pre-session

  3. Nada

    Saved the best for last. Here is ted predicting how “easy” it is to forsee golds downside move today. “Free money”.

    January 9, 2018 at 8:42 am
    More than that Jim. But yes, tomorrow’s trade is so easy. Amazingly easy. Tomorrow, Gold prints a nice red candle. It’s like free money. I know this pattern so well. On Thursday it will be a sideways move. I’ll update as we go. But the miners have topped.

    1. Jim Dandy

      He really got a hold of that one! While he is trying to trade our gold and miners for us, Bitsmoke is pointing straight down, next stop $6K. Just like has been mentioned here many times, there are too many better performing, cheaper, competing ¨coins¨ taking money away from bitcoin. I thought this fundamental observation would take awhile to materialize, but it´s already happening.

      The Bitclowns will wish they had sold at $13K before long.

    2. carlvan

      I’d try not to mock this guy, his posts, always totally undocumented and from gut feeling, are more pityfull than annoying, but annoying sometimes they are! Let’s hope he will learn something at the end.

      1. Jim Dandy

        I doubt he learns anything, instead he will tell us how Bitcoin is the reserve crypto that everybody needs to trade the other alt-coins, since the have to buy and sell bitcoins first, there is a floor beneath it. How long do they think it will be before you can buy Electroneum directly with your Ethereum coins? It´s all hope, and nothing else.

      2. Nada

        Since ted showed up, his aim was to ridicule goldbugs on the site. He tried yesterday to shake out traders on a red day. All of this bitterness, due to his pitiful buy of GBTC at the top.

        1. Jim Dandy

          Agree, and I feel bad for anybody that might have made a trading decision on what Ted said. That is why he deserves to get his balls busted, so others that might be new to the site can learn quickly Ted is to be faded.

        2. rborna

          The best thing you can do to someone that does that is to IGNORE his every post instead of engaging. That will be more discouraging and eventually they leave.

  4. Jim Dandy

    If one must trade crypto ¨coins¨, for God´s sake don´t make it Bitcoin. Technology changes too fast to buy the ¨coin¨that has already run up 36,000%, that is truly a suckers bet.

    The good news is there are new coins with new, improved features coming out every week to satiate all this demand. Add in the eventual government regulation that only an idiot would think won´t happen, and it´s nothing but clear skies ahead!

  5. golddigger

    I addd the last 25% of my JNUG calls yesterday. Should be quite a swing up today. Suffering a 30% down turn was the worst it got so far let’s hope the Gary’s predicted “headfake” is over.

    1. carlvan

      Good call, it will be gap up opening today. I have a position in the stocks and hesitated to add yesterday

  6. Mark

    Wow….looks like a lot of people got fleeced yesterday. Just watching the action in Detour Gold had my stomach swirling. It dropped down throughout the day, even opposite to what gold was doing at the moment. Now, a beautiful gap up on the prebids this morning. I chickened out and didn’t add to my position prior to close yesterday. I thought we would get another 1-2 down days to add.

    Gary, you have been pretty much bang on thus far. I amazed you didn’t feed the trolls yesterday. It is truly a game of trying to control ones emotions.

    Now…the emotional battle today will be whether to add more to my position or not (even though it is clear that yesterday was the day to do this).

          1. Jim Dandy

            I think you misunderstood me, I meant Gary is on the other side of those getting fleeced, meaning he is playing them like a fiddle, meaning he is doing great.

            Get it now?

  7. Goild

    Good and wise trading day to all,

    Getting automatic money is awesome.
    I got some 1K JNUG shares yesterday.
    The UVXY 500 shares are starting to work.
    The 2000 GDX shares are on the green.
    Good, good, good.

  8. Goild

    There are these lines from Mark Douglas “Trading in the zone”:

    “There is a big difference between predicting that something will happen in the market (and thinking about all the money you could have made) and the reality of actually getting into and out of trades.”

    Thus predicting something and being right about it is a small part of the trade. Executing the trade well is the difficult part.

  9. ras

    Time to wade into the pool on dips, if not done yesterday. Gap down to support level or ma 20/50 after 5/6 day decline could signify a buying opportunity during an intermediate up cycle. Seen it many times.

  10. vin

    jnug is up for a change.

    Though not a great day for me so far. labu down 2 bucks and even the ever-rising INDL is down today.

  11. vin

    ted, where are you?

    the board misses you. Please come and guide us. BTC is sinking and jnug is rising!!!!!

    Are you wrong again? Or, is this just a temporary phase. They say that good Lord tests faithfuls to ensure their purity.

    1. Americano

      Ted is on the Mayflower. Seas are choppy now ( its a January thing says Captain John Smith when asked).
      My personal view is miners can be shorted sub 1300 but higher?
      Why dither with it?
      Especially when normy plays abound with NASDAQ or selling weekly calls with AMZN.

    2. ted

      I stand behind my calls. First, the crypto’s are consolidating. I have no doubt about them making new highs this year. None.

      Next, the miners have topped. They filled the gap today, and they will take it down from here. Today may one of the last opportunities to sell at a decent price.

      The markets are taking a breather, but the bull will resume.

      1. vin

        That is the spirit my boy. How else will someone make money off you?

        But, then money is not everything. Taking a stand and staying with it matters more, Irrespective of what happens?

        Who cares what is happening? Eastern way of living has it that all we see is illusion. Are from the East, ted. Or, you just subscribe to their philosophy?


      2. LeilaniFarms

        Ted, here is the biggest problem with your calls. TIMING…

        Your timing is so off, and in trading, that means you’re wrong. Yesterday said “tomorrow we will see a big red candle for gold, I know this pattern too well.”

        Look at today’s Gold Candle Ted! Bottom line, you are wrong and EVERYBODY here on this blog can see it.

        Please stop, its pathetic to say the least.

      1. LeilaniFarms

        Thanks Jim, me too.

        I can day trade, definitely can’t scalp. Even swing trading is pushing it for me sometimes.

        I prefer a long-term position trade and right now when looking at Gold, Silver, as well as Gold Silver Ratio, we are ripe for at least a 3 year uptrend in precious metals.

        Miners are just a leveraged way to play this trend, I’m in.

  12. LeilaniFarms

    Gary, do you think that all of the quantitative easing will move prices in metals higher and quicker than previous bull runs?

    Seems like there is going to be significantly more money chasing the metals once they start picking up steam for the simple fact that there is just SO MUCH MORE currency in circulation this time around.

    What are your thoughts?

    1. Gary Post author

      I think it’s going to take time for gold to get back up to $1900. Once it breaks out above that level It’s going to go to $10,00 in less than a year and a half.

  13. Gary Post author

    The ECB is going to fight tooth and nail to prevent the euro from rising. I think they will ultimately fail, but I suspect it’s going to be quite a battle for the next week.

  14. Jimsee

    welp – low in for gold apparently , it also made a new high…so….could be a high – in any event the new high broke the geometry (my new pet project) from last year that dominated all of the major lows, my read is a min 60 point rally from this week’s low by jan 19.

    1327 was incredibly important imo – breaking it even by a point is important.

    wish me luck.

  15. LeilaniFarms

    I posted this Gold Silver Ratio chart a little over a month ago, back on December 16 to be exact.

    Gold to Silver Ratio:

    The last 3 times the Gold/Silver Ratio was at 80, gold and silver entered multi-year bull markets.

    May/June 2003: Gold was sitting at $350. Gold went on to double in price and tagged $700 within the next 3 years!

    November/December 2008: Gold was @ 820. It went straight up for another 3 years. November 2011 Gold was at 1750. More than Doubled again!

    The most recent time Gold/Silver ratio was at 80 was in February of 2016.Gold, Silver, and Miners made some excellent returns during the Baby Bull and some of the junior miners as well as leveraged funds made 300%, 500%, and even 1,000% return during the first half of 2016.

    So here we are again with the Gold to Silver ratio sitting close to 80 again. All things considered, I am confident in LONG positions for Gold, Silver, and miners for the next 3 years.

  16. jacob2

    Gary, I was here. PM action and chatter reminiscent of the January 13, 2016 “undercut low”. At that time not a bull insight. Went against my better instincts and bought. Are we lucky enough to have history repeat so soon? Spooky

    1. vin

      Nice to see you back. Keep it up my boy. I like your spirit in spite of what is happening.

      Let us know when you get back into miners so I can sell.

      What is your take on btc? 40k? 50k or 100k sooooon.

  17. Spanglish Inquisition

    Interesting chart Leilanifarms. Thanks KS.

    Golddigger. Which jnug options did you choose? I have Gdx 28 calls for March/June. And also have nugt 40 calls for March and june.

    What is your strategy to play these?

  18. ted

    Big daddy long leg black candle in GLD. What a beautiful top that is.

    Taking a position in DUST today!

      1. Nada

        Don’t worry, he will be taking no position. Hipster Ted lives in his parents basement and can’t afford rent, much less shares of DUST. My guess is.. by the end of the day, Ted will do what he does best. Embarrass himself in public.

        1. Nada

          With less than an hour and 30 minutes remaining.. Gold is on track to closing green. Yet another call by Ted, that was backed on nothing and produced nothing.

  19. ARends

    You might find it interesting what impact the latest news on Bonds and the dollar are going to have!
    China announced in the week it is hugely going to reduce buying (or halt it) US bonds. Bond market dropped and so it will accelerate the $ drop. They the biggest buyer of US bonds! The fireworks are going to start

  20. palobar

    I think that some of you will agree that the time-band mentioned last week captured precisely the first pause or mini congestion area in Gold.

    @Jimsee, thanks for your kind words!

    1. Spanglish Inquisition

      Curious how your timing band made January 19th an important day…. When that’s the day that government debt ceiling will need amending.

      I always observe that people’s technical analysis falls on days when there are large fundamental events that affect markets. Just like currencies and the fomc meetings.

      1. palobar

        My next time window is 17-18 January. FMOC meetings and various fundamental reports certainly influence the market, but I never consider them in calculating a time window.

        1. RTTPD

          “My next time window is 17-18 January. FMOC meetings and various fundamental reports certainly influence the market, but I never consider them in calculating a time window.”

          I believe this is also the time window for the Chinese to launch their Petro-yuan.

  21. Spanglish Inquisition

    ON BITCOIN. I share this because I’ve gotten a lot of good information from this board and want to at least inform you of this speculation. Research it yourself.

    Cryptos were made to be fast, secure, anonymous and low transaction fees. Bitcoin itself has none of these. It is a terrible investment. If anything, BCH, LTC, and dash are all hugely better at every aspect of these uses.

    However, if you want to invest in a crypto company with numerous contracts in real world making profits, go research Ven, aka vechain. This coin I estimate could go up 2000-5000% over the next year if the company keeps up it’s performance.

    If I were part of Gary’s competition, 25% position in VEN at 4$.

    25% in SM trades
    25% in PM
    25% in Cascadero Copper Corp.

    1. Jim Dandy

      I prefer to buy the business, not the tokens. We should invest money in the stock of Chuck E Cheese, not the play money tokens they issue!

      1. Spanglish Inquisition

        Jim… The blockchain allows a company to do a private IPO, eliminating the need to go through a bank like JPM who will skim 60%.

        Owning a token is like owning a share of a company. Just one that wasn’t IpO by a big bank.

        This is why it’s a big deal. Anyway, if you’re curious:

        1. Jim Dandy

          Snazzy website, thanks for bringing it to my attention, and at least the coin is hitting new all time highs today (yet another competitor for Bitcoin).

          I see they have 867 million coin supply, that is 3x more than a stock like MUX, and MUX is only $2.25 a share in the business, assets, profits, etc, not $4 for a token. As with the other cryptos, I am pretty sure you won´t own a piece of the business when you buy a token, otherwise it would be regulated by the SEC as a security offering. Of course, that does not mean it can´t continue to go straight up!

          Maybe I am wrong and some of these coins will make buyers part owners, but for now I don´t think people understand what they are getting for their money. We will see.

          1. Spanglish Inquisition

            Indeed. If the company continues to add contracts, it will continue to go up. It’s estimated to lock in 100-1000 contracts this year. If this happens, it could hit 100-250$ per coin. We shall see. I consider this gambling money. But I’ve traded my way up 500% and I’ve never really owned any Bitcoin.

        2. RTTPD

          “Jim… The blockchain allows a company to do a private IPO, eliminating the need to go through a bank like JPM who will skim 60%.

          Owning a token is like owning a share of a company. Just one that wasn’t IpO by a big bank.”

          I think bypassing the parasitical mega banks in this process is very positive.

          The smart contracts also avert the attorneys and many of their fees. Smart contracts threaten the whole fee structure in the legal industry.

  22. ocram

    “I think it’s going to take time for gold to get back up to $1900. Once it breaks out above that level It’s going to go to $10,00 in less than a year and a half.”
    are you still convinced that 2020 could be the year for the gold bubble? two years(from here to the end of 2019 to return to 1900) and one year (from the beginning to the end of 2020) to reach the secular top.

    1. vin

      Unless “they” lose control gold will not go to 10000 in next few years. And, if “they” lose control then 10k is a gross underestimate. Aim for 50k or higher.

  23. Steffmeister

    Nada got punched hard twice today right after he claimed victory. A hard left hook by Gold and then a hard right hook by Silver. He is going to be punched hard over and over and over again and there is nothing he can do about it.

    1. Nada

      Hey Steffie – I see you could not even make 1 day w/out me, much less the equinox. I hate to inform you, but you have no idea what my position is. I can tell if you like? I entered GLD calls on Dec 12th (the exact bottom) with a REAL-time trade on the blog. I called it after the .786 retracement of the previous IC. I closed with 88% profit. Currently with my cash account, I am waiting for the DCL to get long.

      In regard to the contest, I have been sitting in JDST since my entry of @51.17 a week or so ago. I assumed the DCL would come soon enough and I really didn’t care about timing since it was a paper trade. So please tell me how I am getting “punched”.

      You have made absolutely zero real-time calls on this blog and cried like a little $itch (I am not appreciated crying) when Gary said you could not trade a 12x ETF. What you contribute is, obscurity and hindsight trading. Make no mistake, when I saw you drawing invalid EW charts, I knew you were full of $hit 🙂

      1. Steffmeister

        The chart was’nt mine you moron and knowing one is full of shit it takes one to know one.

        Plenty of more bones in your skull to be crushed by Mr Market!

  24. JJHarmen

    The SM is showing no signs of any real stress and should be up on the day soon. Even the bond market is recovering most of the overnight losses. These rigged markets are never allowed to get out of control.

    1. Gary Post author

      Exactly. governments figured out they can control the business cycle by controlling the markets.

      This is why I keep pleading with people not to short the stock market.

  25. JJHarmen

    Gold stocks are not doing much of anything but I guess not crashing is a big plus. I have nothing to say about bitcoin because I don’t play it and don’t care to, ever.

      1. Jim Dandy

        Actually, he would already be short and losing terribly, again. Anybody can keep taking stabs and eventually they will be right for at least a day or two, but Ted already lost most of his money.

    1. Christian

      I wish JJ Haha! I would troll the heck out of you!

      I’ll tell you one thing.. I’ve frequented this site on and off for years now and it’s always the same. There’s always a couple of morons that have nothing better to do but pollute the blog with their baloney sandwich day after day and then suddenly — they’re just gone..!

      BUT before you know it, others pop up out of the shadows.. and this little circus show starts all over again 🙂

      1. Roy Batty

        In total agreement. Some people use trolling in order to massage their inferiority complexes. Why else would someone choose to viciously attack the weakest or least conformist among us? It’s sick.

    1. Christian

      Here we go again with the “repeating Gary” comments. Baloney my friend! Do you honestly think that Gary is the only one familiar with Cycle Analysis?! Lol! Like, are you really that naive??

      1. alvinheart

        Christian, what are your thoughts on gold and the miners these days? How about QQQ?

        Does Nada owe you a taco or vice versa?

        1. Nada

          We covered that back on the day the failed cycled occurred. My expectations of a gap fill before the failed cycle did not follow through. Within minutes of the failed cycled, I posted I was “wrong” and said I was sorry 🙂

          BTW, here is a video of Christian eating his winning “burrito”

          1. Christian

            LMAO Brilliant!

            btw Nada.. I’ve enjoyed watching (reading?) you bust big Teddy bear, Stiffy and Mustang Sally’s cojones over the past several weeks! You’re the new Sheriff in town and you’re much cuter than I am 🙂 Keep it up!

          1. Christian

            That’s true but I stopped doing that when I got booted off the blog for a week, figured I should invest my time elsewhere.

            That being said, I like having Gary in my corner to compare notes and I did re-subscribe a few days ago. And I would recommend it to anyone who is serious about taking their trading to the next level — Gary’s analysis is always full of insight.

  26. rborna

    Take it easy, so sensitive! Means you are a gold bull like Gary. Everyone is ready to jump on your throat!

    1. Christian

      I’m sensitive to stupid arse comments and I’m a Gold Bull because this is a Bull Market you marshmallow 🙂

  27. Nada

    I will go out on a limb here, even though gold has another 1:10 minutes of trading. As predicted this morning, Ted’s calls would..

    1. Tomorrow (Wed) will result in a big red candle for GDX ***FAIL***
    2. GDX will touch the 200 DMA tomorrow (wed) ***FAIL***
    3. GDX will probably touch the 50ma tomorrow (wed) ***FAIL***

    and the best for last..

    4. I’ve seen this pattern many times, and it’s as bearish as you can get. ***FAIL***

    1. ted

      Yup, I’ll give the day’s battle to you. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

      I am focused on the bigger picture, and it still looks good to me. The miners have topped.

      1. Nada

        I agree with you short term. I think this DC has potentially topped, but I do not believe the high for the miners is in for this intermediate cycle.

        Why gold has “potentially” topped this daily cycle
        1. 2 closes below 10ma in GDX GDXJ
        2. 2 closes above 10ma for Dixie
        3. pinbar on gold
        4. 30 days since ICL/DCL or 20 trading days

        Your viewpoint of the ICL not being in, is not unique. I know several with this viewpoint. Now their opinions vary, but from what I have extrapolated, the 500 pound guerrilla in the room is the timing band of the IC. This one I personally can not write off. My original theory was a ICL in late Jan, early Feb. However, Gary’s explanation of the previous IC’s being stretched (I can see this on the chart) makes sense. Other than that, reasons why I believe ICL is in?

        1. The swing on daily on Dec 13th.
        2. Weekly swing
        3. above 200ma
        4. gold staying overbought
        5. the bounce off the 10ma (typically a HCL)
        6. You do not have a failed cycle and then the next DC make a higher high. Well I guess its possible, but I have not seen it. Maybe someone can comment on that?

        What were you reasons for not believing the ICL has occurred? Are you trading based of candlestick patterns? I have heard you mention “patterns”, so not quite sure what you are basing your viewpoints on.

        1. ted

          I use several methods.

          But I will give one item that is like glue: the Dec ’16 weekly gap in GDX will be filled before the miners take off.

          It is like glue! And that is where it is headed.

          1. Jake

            Isn’t that an awfully thin basis for expecting a retracement all the way back to a low of over a year ago? A nine cent gap on a weekly chart?

  28. rborna

    GDXJ low yesterday was 33.18. The .382 Fib from the previous wave was 33.13. Interesting!
    Could that be wave 2 ended and wave 3 coming?
    I am not an EW person, just fun to look at.

  29. Bob

    Nada, We still have 15-25 days left in this cycle (35-45 total) which should be very right translated so likely 10-15 days to top. We’re just coming out of the HCL.

    1. Nada

      Maybe. Thiink about it this way. Daily cycles were +35 days during sttretched ICs. We don’t know if that pattern continues as we just had a shortened IC.

      1. Bob

        On the other hand, Gary’s suggested normal daily cycles have now evolved to 35-45 days (and I pay for and appreciate good advice). he last intermediate cycle lasted 23 weeks which is within normal ranTge however even if considered short that might suggest this one might be a little longer. More likely the last intermediate cycle was a bit shorter to make up for the 29 week intermediate cycle immediately preceeding it. The two intermediate cycles together came within a day or two of an exact year.

        1. Nada

          Either we need a first DC in this IC to see what type of timing band occurs, for confirmation. I certainly agree that the probabilities are good for this to be a HCL, with a bounce off the 10ma.

  30. vin

    ted, I understand that btc has shifted below 13k!

    Now what?

    btw gold is up in Asian trading, only a small amount.

    Any change in your advise? Or, not yet?

    Looks like they are many who depend on your valuable advise. Are you abandoning them at this crucial juncture?

      1. vin

        ok ted, let us make it a date Dec 2018. I say miners will have done exceptionally well by that time. Just for the record, jnug will exceed 50 between now and Dec.

        And, btc I would say that it will go down to below 5k between now and Dec.

        Now, don’t forget to keep the date and tell us whether you were in dust or if you bit the dust in Dec.

        In the meantime when jnug reaches 50 and/or btc reaches 5k, I will let you know.

        Good luck.

  31. ARends

    Bond market in collapse impact on Gold and stock by Igold might be very insight full as life of correlations change as we know it. Great info that support Gary theory and outlook. Great insight, see video

    We see for past three weeks huge divergence with gold and bonds. This exit of Bonds and China announcement for some reason is to influence market I think. A bond flee of bonds will start into stock and commodities and especially gold is detected with divergence. China secret accumulation of Gold over the past 15 years are possibly coming into play. Research show they possibly have more than double as that which have been declared in research I have read.
    Topping patterns might just become continuations patterns in our new world with the dollar dropping. So be warned, as Gary said ! DONT TRY AND SHORT THE MARKET


  32. Alexandru Popovici

    Gold should set its top today at ~1331 as USDJPY charts its DCL at 110.7.
    After that, the deadcat bounce of USD should resume through Wednesday on Beige Book –> I’ll buy back my silver/gold/EUR there.

  33. Nada

    Bitcoin gartley update. As I stated before, probabilities of successful gartlrys need confirmation as you go, but I must say this one has been quite accurate. Notice where Bitcoin bounce. I challenge Steff to post anything similar from start to finish. Hell, I will let him even use invalid wave counts.

    I can guarantee he will not accept, as his egotism will not permit him to be wrong or take accountability for a real time trade backed on TA, even though it’s mostly BS.

    1. JJHarmen

      Goild, you don’t talk much anymore about your daily profit making enterprise with JNUG. Did something go wrong?

  34. JJHarmen

    The “big” correction is over and the SM blasts off to fresh all time highs ( Russell and Dow and Nasdaq). Isn’t Trump just the greatest? Me, i’m still watching GDX go no where. If it wasn’t for a penny stock that I own, I would not have made a penny in this crazy bull market.

    1. Gary Post author

      GDX is up almost 100% since the bear market low. Even a simple Old Turkey strategy should be doing just fine, even if you didn’t time the exact bottom.

      You are either trading very poorly, or you entered way too late when your emotions gave you the all clear signal.

      1. Bluebellkid

        And if a person knew how to spot sell signals they would have bailed in August in 2016 when GDX flashed one and avoided over a year of sideways action and took advantage of the rest of the markets.

          1. Bluebellkid

            Nothing hard about it Gary – remember I was the one that cautioned you against the JNUG trade back then. If you are interested I will break down the red flags and sell signals.

          1. Gary Post author

            As of the last completed trade the metal portfolio is up 195% in the last two years. Marked to market we’re up 268%.

            I don’t think anyone would be disappointed with those numbers.

          2. Bluebellkid

            You have it wrong there Jake – yes you buy on fundamentals but you sell on technicals. Stock prices will most often break down on the chart long before any problems with the fundamentals show up. And what one is doing by monitoring the price/volume action is “tracking” Smart Money which I find highly ironic. I will analyze the GDX chart from August 2016:
            When the move first started you were getting some way above average volume and that was good and confirming the move might have some legs. We ran into a little trouble in May and GDX closed below the 50 day and near the lows of the week BUT volume was way below average so eased my concern and then the next week it was up nicely and closed near the high of the week but once again on below average volume. Then the first week of August GDX made a new high that had not been seen in over 3 years. At this point there should not be much in the way of resistance – research shows that most investors will bail on a bad trade after 1 1/2 – 2 years. After it made that high it reversed and closed near the bottom of the weekly trading range – now the volume was below average so in real time this is nothing more than a flag – but when something is making a new high you want to see investors piling in and the volume come in well above average otherwise it could be indicating you have run out of buyers. The next week GDX moved a little bit higher but once again no volume and the weekly close was a few cents above the midpoint range so not really bullish. The next week was a down week and so you don’t know if it is just consolidating or has run out of steam but we do know we have several “red flags”. The actual “sell signal” came the following week when GDX crashed thru the 50 day on the heaviest volume in months and closed the week near the lows of the week. The 50 day became resistance and in November the “Death Cross” occurred. And by the way healthy stocks don’t dip down below the 50 day and stay there for long – a few weeks is ok but anything longer should be a red flag. Smart Money uses the 50 day as a place to add to their positions and when a stock cant seem to hold that line then it indicates they are not buying as aggressively as they were.

          3. Gary Post author

            Analyzing a chart after the fact is complete bullshit. You already know what the outcome is.

            Do it in real time and spare us any more of this after the fact crap.

          4. Bluebellkid

            Back then I told you Gary in real time that it appeared the miners had topped. And I distinctly remember when a couple of months later and GDX down about 4 it rallied one week and you went to tooting your horn like everything was ok and I pointed out to you in real time that the volume was not there. Average weekly volume at that point was around 374 mm and that dead cat bounce only produced 286 mm. GDX did move up some (less than a dollar) and then the bottom fell out – so once again volume did mean something. And I also remember you never commented – EVER!

          5. Bluebellkid

            No it’s not. I have tried to point this out to you for years. You use cycles to help you spot bottoms. If you would take the time to read my post and pull up a chart and see what I am talking about you could use price/volume action to help you spot tops. All stocks eventually top out as do all stock markets – wouldn’t it be nice to see the signs that that is about to occur. IBD has about 25 Sell signals but one only has to master a handful. Knowing when to sell is probably the one aspect of investing that most investors ignore – after all no one goes into investing with the thought of losing money.

      1. Jim Dandy

        People trying to call the next $20 in gold, missing the BIG picture of risk/reward. If you are quite bullish looking out several weeks to months, then the risk is being out of the trade and trying to time in perfectly, might be $200 upside to $20 downside.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Nice chat, thanks. I won´t be surprised if miners get going tomorrow, either. Seems Fridays have been good to gold of late.

  35. mexican

    Golid, have you been making lunch MONEY? Have not heard from you? or are you too late getting back into jnug?

  36. Americano

    I love Golids posting on his lunch money scores.
    Seems to me he bets daily with the cash of his convictions – then splits.
    I think Golid May secretly be Stanley Druckenmiller & he just comes in here to have a snort then back to his billionaire ways.


    Golid belongs on the Mayflower. It’s cool he isn’t …….SOMEBODY has to remain in England for it not to totally go to seed.
    Golid is a fantastic custodian as he actually gets after it.
    He’d make mince meat of crypto market ESPECIALLY if he was outside of US as he could play on Bitmex ( you can still do it in US with VPN but I wouldn’t)


    Why sell when you can just go 100 or 50- 1 short with physical settlement?

  37. Duuuuuude

    We are all trying to catch a bubble, but the only asset going vertical at the moment is crude oil. There is virtually no resistance between where we are today and 100. Perhaps this is just a blow off top of this IC. Optix as high as we have had in a long time.


    1. Bluebellkid

      And ERX is showing good volume to accompany that nice move unlike the miners who are still not exhibiting above average volume.

    1. RTTPD

      Just sold HL. Will re-enter on the DC pullback, especially if the Friday mine labor issue is not resolved by then.

  38. Spanglish Inquisition

    Gary. We gotta be getting close to a DoW drop. 95% bulls and coming up on the 161.8% fib extension of the 2009-2015 run.

  39. zkotpen

    Another day where GDX is not moving up as much as the move in gold would suggest… how could that be?

  40. Jim Dandy

    I wonder if there are already more cryptocoin ¨currencies¨out there than there have been government issued in the history of the world? I bet so, and there are only 180 circulating currencies in the world at the moment. At least we can now use a DENT coin for dentists, in case we get a toothache.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Excuse me, I had that wrong, its called Dentacoin, symbol DCN, and it´s already in the top 50 coins by market cap.

  41. JJHarmen

    Another “everything is up” day. The SM is going nutso, bonds are up, crude way up and even the lowly gold miners are up although lagging somewhat. GDX is up almost a buck from where it was a year ago so nothing for the goldbugs to complain about.

    1. primetime

      Cheer up! Trump is your President, you live in the wonderful, beautiful state of California (debt, libs, mudslides, earthquakes, forest fires, et al.) and the markets are up!?

  42. ARends

    @ Jimsee and for those that has not discovered key MA this might help
    I discovered with each instrument like Gold has its key MA that has significance for specific time frames like Gold is weekly! (rest time frames (or most are just noise for confusion but does help on hourly or other secondary plays) that are turning points for cycles that you will see if you look at chart. It is then great to determine targets of of entry and exit with confidence IPOV rather than perceived resistances people try to find in analysis that are actually created by the KEY MA. These key MA are the key to each instrument and is a discovery I made. Hope it helps. People get stuck on 50, 100, 200.

    Chart annalists want to confine an instrument price movement to a MA, But finding the MA for the instrument price movement is a better key as you might discover. Well in POV it is the better accuracy to see cycle change potential points of turn for the future and you would not guess as much you will see great er targets of true resistances!.
    NB, refine it for your self as it will give you a different outlook.

    Gold KEY MA Resistances
    Weekly GDX KEY MA Resistances
    Weekly GDXJ KEY MA Resistances
    Daily GDXJ more scatty

      1. Bluebellkid

        The thing about TA to me is that it is a self fulfilling prophesy. It works because enough traders are trading on those specific points.

        1. Nada

          Indeed. However, I doubt too many traders are using ARend’s 15 funky bunch MA values 🙂

          I charted them so I can see for myself if they have any value. It’s gotta work better than Steffie’s geopolitical violence indicator (GV) that predict gold reaction to car bombings in .. Sweeden!

        2. ARends

          This solves Fibs retrace, pitch fork, channels and ……You have a good guide to whatch a much obvious entry or exit with indicators.

      2. ARends

        (@ Nada its the MA 308 on weekly chart that offering resistance. When working with investing.com in your chart you would need to use the (-) on bottom to shrink chart horizontally for all MA to appear with all data and then they stay as you use (+) at bottom to stretch it to normal candle width again

      1. ARends

        Yes! Nada. Great thing is you can save as a chart and just change the indicator to keep MA and adjust then to the new trading instrument. It actually great!

          1. Nada

            LOL, thats what I was speculating. The reason I asked.. Tradingview.com (which investing.com uses for charting) permits 10 indicators on your chart for PRO+. You have to upgrade to the highest plan of premium, to receive over 10 indicators (up to 25).

            I guess tradingview.com is permitting unlimited indicators to generate traffic to their site from investing.com customer base, but still seems like a good reason for PRO+ subscribers to complain.

            Thanks for confirming, I will throw them on a chart in my investing.com account for safe keeping.

  43. Jim Dandy

    Teddy´s GBTC getting positively hammered today, what´s worse is tomorrow will be down too, by the looks of that MACD opening up to the downside.


    By now, the bottom pickers should be sufficiently scared to throw in the towel and pile on the selling. Not only were all the bounces weak, GBTC is making news lows on the backslide of that parabola.

          1. Jim Dandy

            LOL, the blockchain stocks want to go lower for sure, the only question is if they lead or follow the imaginary tokens?

  44. allthatglitters

    clear to me we’re going to do a slow burn melt up in gold while the market slowly comes to grip with the fact that $1300 is no longer resistance for gold, it is now support. Gold got swatted down from $1300 so many times in 2017 it’s hard for minds to accept it won’t happen again. Once the market “gets it” we’ll be off to the races

  45. Jim Dandy

    I like that there are lots of non believer bulls out there, people who want to be long but waiting for a $20 or $30 pullback. Might not get it.

  46. ARends

    (@ Nada its the MA 308 on weekly chart that offering resistance. When working with investing.com in your chart you would need to use the (-) on bottom to shrink chart horizontally for all MA to appear with all data and then they stay as you use (+) at bottom to stretch it to normal candle width again

    1. ARends

      I also use tradingview.com and used the trail pro then set up favorite indicator templates that stayed after trial. This was to my surprise but did not do it for the MA that I discovered later

  47. Nada

    I forgot to check the time and sells data at the close – data disappears after around 5mins. Will have to wait for the WSJ print to see if there is anything interesting.

      1. Bluebellkid

        Volume has not been confirming the price action we are seeing in the miners and in real time this is a red flag. And that’s all that it is at this point a red flag that things aren’t as they should be so be wary. When you consider the move gold has made compared to the miners it is a little troubling. I’m glad I am not leveraged in the miners and more heavily invested in other areas.

        1. jake

          It’s your appreciation that is holding them back, when gold starts its next leg up the miners will have anorther spurt.

  48. ARends

    So we see the break out and my 410/358 MA convergence target should be 1366 ish for cycle top, the proof is in the pudding as guides seem to be good
    @ Nada 308 MA was resistance sorry.

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