128 thoughts on “HUMAN NATURE NEVER CHANGES

  1. roadrunner

    First?

    good video as it relates to trading miner etf’s. best just hold for the whole ICL, unless its the 3X.

    1. Excelsior

      I enjoyed this Video segment from G.S. but it is incorrect to say that nobody was buying at the low on Dec 12th going into the FOMC meeting on Dec 13th. We were talking about it for months as the ideal entry over at the KER. It was a pretty obvious place to position since all the following FED Hikes (2015 & 2016) resulted in surges in Gold & the miners shortly there after.

      -> On October 25, 2017 at 11:57 am,
      Excelsior says:

      “If there is the dip in December due to tax loss selling and before the FOMC then I plan on doing my last tranche in most of these struggling miners at that time, but on days like this, it is very difficult to sit on my hands and not buy more of the companies that are set up for a good 2018.”

      -> On October 26, 2017 at 7:53 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      “You can gloat for about 2 more months spanky. Once the corrective move is over, my investing thesis is that the next leg up in the bull market (that started in Dec 2015 for the metals and Jan 19, 2016 for the Miners) will get moving higher.”

      “It is painful to watch the sea of red across the PM sector, and 2 months may end up feeling like an eternity….. However, I’m going to take the scrapes and bruises, and work on building up some dry powder to deploy pre-FOMC.”

      -> On December 5, 2017 at 9:20 am,
      Excelsior says:

      “Yes, sentiment and prices have been bearish, but this was expected going into mid Dec tax loss selling and prior to the FOMC meeting 12-13th for the Fedbabble rate hike. It is the same thing that happened in Dec of 2015 and Dec of 2016.”

      -> On December 12, 2017 at 4:54 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      “In both mid to late December of 2015 and 2016 the PMs put in a bottom right near the Fed Rate hikes. And here we are again…. about to put in the lows right near the fedbabble….”

      -> On December 12, 2017 at 4:56 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      “I’ve been adding to many miners since before Thanksgiving until today. As far as the Precious Metals go, I’m pretty much fully allocated, although if there is a nice Q1 Run then I’d like to reshuffle a few of my holdings into different names.”

      ” Clearly some of the carnage in PM stocks from Nov to Dec is tax loss selling as well, but most of that should be over at this point, and some investors have started buying into the weakness in prices.”

      -> On December 13, 2017 at 5:48 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      “Yes, for the last 2 months I mentioned we’d get a sell down in the miners and that they’d likely bottom in mid-Dec due to the end of tax loss selling and in front of the FOMC Fedbabble. In addition, I mentioned this was where I was going to be placing my last tranche of dry powder for 2017,”

      1. Gary Post author

        Well of course not everybody was on the sidelines. But I don’t think “you” qualify as everyone at Ker.

        For as long as I’ve watched them they typically behave as the dumb money at virtually every intermediate turning point.

        1. tulip

          the doc over there NEVER admits anything except he’s always right… then he moves up his timing zone… year…and Al is more engaged in his politix…
          I only tune in for excelsior & matthew.

        2. Excelsior

          A fair point, some of the key commentators do miss significant turns fairly often, but there were others discussing buying during tax loss before the FOMC rate hikes. Clearly there were other investors on the buy side during the deep dives where the other side was selling. I do agree with you that it was not popular position to hold in early to mid December, but we saw the same thing play out in Dec of 2015 on the first hike, causing a rally into the Q1 Run of 2016; and then again on Dec 2016, causing a rally into the Q1 Run of 2017. There was another smaller and quicker rally in the Fed hike mid year in 2017.

          One observation is that the rallies are coming quicker each time (with this last one on Dec 13th 2017 occurring on the very day of the rate hike itself), but the rallies have been smaller each time.

  2. Christian

    I’m pretty sure that “4:29” on the clock was a poke at Bluebellkid 🙂 Volume and all..!

    1. Bluebellkid

      I’m pretty sure you are right! Heehee. And once more it is not just volume there is price action in there. That is sort of like Gary only using his Cycles and no Sentiment but hey it is what it is.

  3. Christian

    Attachment

    And speaking of “human nature never changes”. Market nature never changes either!

    It likes to play the same old games over and over and over.. Now, I’m not saying that’s how it’s gonna play out but the point is: The more you understand the psychology, the less ANXIETY you’re gonna have to put up with when she pulls a fast one on you.

    1. RTTPD

      Christian ——

      Looking at your chart…during the half cycle low in August, is the first arrow pointing up a fake daily cycle low and the second, fatter triangle pointing up, the actual real DCL?

      1. Christian

        The first arrow is indeed a HCL, not a DCL. The other 2 arrows (on the top right inside) are simply highlighting the degree of volatility and how easy it is for Gold to paint a certain picture and confuse Traders — notice the potential top in this example around the middle of August followed by a sudden drop several days later into what many thought was going to turn into a more significant correction. Well, it didn’t happen.. Gold reversed on the same day and pushed all the way back up to 1358.

        August 2017 looks vaguely familiar 🙂

    2. Nada

      Could be. I posted a chart last week or further back, with this timing window – if DC was going to be continued to be stretched. We need the duration of this IC to see how the daily cycles are going to act, before it’s clear.

  4. Americano

    Even though Ted & I are on the Mayflower…..
    I didnt see him today. Too much repair work to tend to due to the yapearly January storms.
    I did notice he found time to shout out gold calls. Ya gotta admit…..
    He keeps it spicy.
    Thanks for all the support we have received for our pilgrimage.
    The die has been cast it’s Bitcoin or bust/ Valhalla or burial at sea.
    It’s NOT comfortable yet our nature & criteria for thriving vs existing…..
    Gave us no choice,
    Thanks Again.

  5. Cybo33

    Gary are you still holding the JNUG shares that you purchased at the bottom of this cycle and if so, will you hold them to the end of this IC?

    1. Gary Post author

      I haven’t sold anything. I won’t until I think we have a final intermediate top. That certainly hasn’t occurred yet IMO.

  6. Americano

    Truth:
    If you are a gold Fetishist ( & I mean that as it’s illogical from an actuarial perspective given it’s supply elasticity & it’s Current inventory accounting is akin to the West African government of Cameroon’s In terms of opaqueness)
    You are outta your mind if you don’t follow everything he says to a TEE !
    I just take his advice on the Nasdaq which has been the Bitcoin Standard for the past couple years but then…..
    I ceased being a gold fetishist last February for good & let’s face it….I’m lazy. Gary does ALL the work for me !

  7. Jim Dandy

    Not being proficient with cycles, I was starting to think yesterday was the trendline break, and price below the 10 day MA that meant the DCL was close, though $GOLD closed right on the trendline and MA, not below them. Gary is the cycles man, so maybe the daily cycle isn´t done yet, which would be a pleasant surprise.

    GDX closed below the 10 MA, but not the trendline as it only poked through then closed above it, if my charts are correct. Not sure what to make of that, but more important to me is to be on for the full ICLs, so would be staying in anyway or buying more if miners went lower.

  8. Gary Post author

    As of this morning gold has completed a swing low. It’s going to be tough for the banks to get GDX below 23.50 unless something changes today.

  9. Gary Post author

    If one accepts that stocks are now in a bubble (there’s really no question anymore) then one has to look ahead and anticipate what will happen once the bubble pops.

    I think we can reasonably expect central banks to panic and start more QE. This time it’s going to go into commodities and focus most heavily in the metals.

    So I have no idea why anyone would think that gold is still in a bear market. It simply can’t be if stocks are in a bubble, and there is no question they are.

    Gold is going to be the beneficiary when the stock bubble pops and smart money has been seeing this for months and months and has been accumulating all last year during that basing pattern.

    1. jacob2

      Think you will be right. Sold a bicket of stocks over the last few days. Positioned in miners and natural resource stocks. The sm sure feels like a bubble to me. Think it will end the only question is when. I’m probably early but better early then awol.

  10. Nada

    So far looks like the BOW for gdx meant something, this time. Maybe the last two days with the BOW, those naughty banksters have been accumulating.

  11. victor

    Gary, if government shutdown will be prevented today, do you think metals will tank? Thanks

    As to LYDIF I commented later I buy/sell 3rd time with arr 50% profit for now. They plan to get first gold in this fall, I think it’s a minimum 2 $ stock.

    1. Gary Post author

      It sounds like the best they can hope for at this point is a temporary fix that just kicks the can down the road for a few days.

      I don’t know that that would save the dollar as the problem would still exist.

  12. Rhino18

    Anyone here holding physical gold and silver? Most of the talk is gold related ETF’s and stocks. Just curious if anyone is into the physical metals. I do have a small amount of silver in the way of 1 oz rounds and bars, I don’t have any physical gold as of now.

    1. RTTPD

      I have quite a few Pre 1933 20 dollar Saints/liberty coins quite a few 10’s 5’s and even a couple 3’s. I have quite a few maple leafs also

      Silver — lots of Peace and Morgan dollars. A Few 100 oz bars and numerous coffee mugs fulk junk pre 64 dimes, quarters and half dollars.

      I’m not a prepper……I just grew up coin collecting and love gold and silver.

    2. faz

      At least I’d buy a gold coin to keep in your wallet, canadian maple or another sovereign minted commonly recognised coin. The US eagles are covered in a thin layer of a harder metal, which makes it trickier to sell them back to a shop in my experience.

      I agree with Nolan Watson’s thinking here.

      1. RTTPD

        All my american coins are legal tender pre 1933 – I don’t own a single modern bullion eagle if that is whaf you are thinking.

        Besides, the eagles have too much of a premium over leafs and Roos– I would never buy them.

        1. faz

          Actually what put me off the most was, you can’t actually see or feel the gold in them-thar modern bullion eagles. My maple leaf coin in the wallet is a nice reminder of the tsunami that’s coming, even though all I see around me is the tide’s disappeared..

        2. roadrunner

          gold eagles are 22 karat gold…about 91%, whereas Leafs and Philharmonics are 24 karat 99%. krugs are 91.7 like eagles.

    3. Troy

      Hi Rhino,

      I have some 2016 American Eagle Gold and Silver coins bought s few years back. I’m not thinking of selling them until Gold hits $5,000/oz and Silver $100/oz. Most likely will leave them tomy kids though.

  13. Gary Post author

    Platinum definitely not on board with a DCL yet.

    I say gold tests the September high and maybe the baby bull high before this daily cycle tops.

  14. JJHarmen

    Expect to see fresh all time S&P and DOW numbers before the end of the trading day. I think we may have seen the bottom for GDX so I bought another 500 shares this morning.

  15. ocram

    Gary,
    the majority of gold analysts think that this rally will end about in march/april since this is usually the timeframe where gold make a top.
    But in the 2016 the “baby bull” leg lasted from january to june,could this repeat with this leg?
    The thing that still don’t like me is that ,in the baby bull leg, miners outperformed greatly bullion,nowadays this is not happening.
    You showed a few days ago the xau/gold ratio,when do you think it will be still positive for miners?

  16. Spanglish Inquisition

    Bought some more otm nugt calls strike 40 and 60 yesterday at gold price 1326. See what happens this weekend.

    You guys want Mayflower volatility? Trade nugt options. Speaking of mayflowers, I bought more VeChain yesterday, too.

      1. Nada

        Sorry, but if Trump can take credit for the SM highs, then he is going to have to take credit for any SM lows – nature of the beast.

  17. LeilaniFarms

    Does anybody else see a nice little move up in mining stocks for the rest of the day?

    Too early to tell but if GDXJ closes around 35 then we have a Bullish Engulfing candle on the Daily,

    Time will tell.

    1. Gary Post author

      The banks would like to keep the miners suppressed today. The problem they have is that loading up a bunch of shorts into the close could back fire come Monday morning if the shutdown happens and the dollar tanks. Gold would probably surge higher.

      1. LeilaniFarms

        That’s what I was wondering about as well. Gold is holding up quite strong and even looks to be completing a Bull Flag on the 5 Min chart suggesting a strong close for the day / week.

        Regardless, miners are still closing above their Daily & Weekly 20 & 50 EMA. I remain Bullish. 🙂

  18. victor

    I think if they manage to prevent shutdown then GDX 23.50 will be taken, then on Monday gold rump up again.

    oops, sorry Gary, took your thoughts at teh same time

  19. Don

    Attachment

    I like to watch this monthly chart of NVIDIA, up 2.5% today and 19% so far this year. It is a semi’s leader and when it’s parabolic move ends, I suspect that will spell trouble for the markets.

  20. Don

    Attachment

    I love this percentage chart of Netflix, up 23000 % percent from 2003. Who would have thought that fifteen years later, it would be going up as a market leader, up 15% already this year. I would say it’s over valued but in today’s CB money printing fueled market, the words “over valued”, no longer have meaning.

    1. SUBBA

      I am riding this stock last 4 months. I closed today as monday they have ER . I took 75% off from the table as of today.

  21. Don

    Of course , percentage charts are very misleading when taken over long periods, especially when a stock has a low starting point years back as do most tech stocks, but they sure are fun to look at. Log scales are much more informative and provide a better picture.

    1. Nada

      You must be long? It’s funny how a persons position can change their outlook.
      Example – since I am short, it looks bearish to me 🙂

      I only have 3 tiny contracts for March, so either way.. it doesn’t matter, but if I don’t have “some” type of position, I can’t sleep at night.

      1. Bluebellkid

        Nada, IBD offers a “Swing Trader” service for $74.70/month. With the markets in melt up mode they are on a roll. Not sure what kind of screen they use but the stocks they recommend are ones breaking out of some type of consolidation (chart pattern) on good volume (imagine that!). And I’m pretty sure Christian that those references to price and volume were directed at Gary.

        1. Nada

          LOL. Hey Bluebellkid, thanks for the recommendation. Oh my laugh was about your last sentence. I was sort of joking about not being able to sleep at night unless I have a position, but gold looks like a good risk/reward here – even in light of government shutdown.

        1. Nada

          Yeah I entered last Friday right before the close. The move up on Monday (holiday) had me a little worried, but gold puked it up before the close. So I like to think I was 1 day off from the exact top. I went into GLD calls at the *exact* bottom on Dec 12th when it bounced off .786 (real time call).

          I needed that win, because I had a loss over the damn gap fill before trendline break that I kept running my mouth about during the last IC (day after day blah blah blah). Oh well, lol.

          I doubt I get that lucky for the top though – gold is always a PIA when it comes to topping.

      2. Jim Dandy

        I didn´t do anything today, no trades, just enjoyed the day instead of sticking by the computer. Going over my charts now, the blockchain stocks look to me like the bounce is almost over before resuming the waterfall decline. Maybe they hold up until Monday or Tuesday, but lookout below after that. And these are the blockchain stocks, actual companies with shares and a plan for the future, unlike tokens which are similar to what my kid gets at Chuck E Cheese stamped ¨not redeemable¨. The only hope for bitclowns is a bigger fool comes in behind them to buy, but that looks less likely by the day, now that the shine has worn off.

      3. SUBBA

        yes … I joined the ride when it is trading around 160 . I have 180 calls for Jan expiration . But it is up last 30 days..

      4. jyoung3759

        Of course I’m long but my opinion is based on high lows and highs now forming on the hourly chart. If that were to breakdown I’m out but not foolish enough to be short with the intermediate trend in place. There is never any sense in being too cute. With the trend up and no sign of being bearish. It is extremely risky to be short NADA. there is absolutely nothing in my opinion that would suggest being short right now. Price is certainly not telling you that. In fact daily, weekly, and monthly charts are indicating the exact opposite. Monthly old in an uptrend since 12/2016. Weekly and daily since 12/2017. This is all with higher lows and about to challenge old highs. Looks very bullish. this is the first down week in Gold in 6 weeks. So not seeing at all why you would be short here? Other then guessing this is a top there is nothing in the charts that support your position. Good luck!

        1. Nada

          Attachment

          @jyoung3759 I am bullish, but the IC requires daily cycles. I don’t expect the DC to be stretched is all. The 4h chart is showing me bear, so that is why I entered position. I have a small short on and will not add until we close below the trendline on the daily. As always, it will be most interesting to watch this play out.

  22. JJHarmen

    Okay, the S&P and the Nasdaq have hit new highs today so the media will have something to feast on this weekend. Us lowly gold bugs are watching our gold ETFS and stocks doing the usual… not much of anything.

    1. Americano

      Thank You Lone Ranger.
      I have printed this image out with the caption “After January” and posted it up in the galley of…….
      The Mayflower.

      1. Jim Dandy

        Bitcoin is dead, even the volatility is gone. It will be a lot longer than January, more like years of drifting lower with occasional sharp drops followed only by weak bounces. Nobody cares anymore bc they can´t get rich overnight, which was the big draw, they now realize they can lose too, driving them away.

        You will still have your beloved tokens, everything will be the same, only the price will be lower. Another 50% crash like we just saw from today´s levels, and the regulators will have all they need to follow up, sealing the fate of bit tokens. I would not rest easy, they are always late and come in after the damage is done, but by then it is too late for HODLers.

    2. TraderPete

      LOL! I like it. I’ll have to put that in my trading war room.😎. That’s a real nice wood floor. Is it Beach Cambridge? Is it your dance floor in your dance studio?

      1. Bluebellkid

        For an options expiration day where volume is usually much higher than average take note of this:
        GDX average daily volume (ADV) 33.5 mm and today traded 22.7 mm
        GDXJ ADV 10.7 mm and today 6.8 mm
        NUGT ADV 5.4 mm and today 3.3 mm
        JNUG ADV 9.9 mm and today 7.3 mm
        Also, all of them closed near the bottom of the weekly trading range with the volume coming in slightly below average with the exception of JNUG which was slightly above average and keep in mind it was a 4 day trading week, so not a bullish weekly from that aspect. Just a red flag at this point in real time.

  23. jyoung3759

    Of course I’m long but my opinion is based on high lows and highs now forming on the hourly chart. If that were to breakdown I’m out but not foolish enough to be short with the intermediate trend in place. There is never any sense in being too cute. With the trend up and no sign of being bearish. It is extremely risky to be short NADA. there is absolutely nothing in my opinion that would suggest being short right now. Price is certainly not telling you that. In fact daily, weekly, and monthly charts are indicating the exact opposite. Monthly old in an uptrend since 12/2016. Weekly and daily since 12/2017. This is all with higher lows and about to challenge old highs. Looks very bullish. this is the first down week in Gold in 6 weeks. So not seeing at all why you would be short here? Other then guessing this is a top there is nothing in the charts that support your position. Good luck!

    1. Nada

      Attachment

      Ok, you post twice, I post twice 🙂

      @jyoung3759 I am bullish, but the IC requires daily cycles. I don’t expect the DC to be stretched is all. The 4h chart is showing me bear, so that is why I entered position. I have a small short on and will not add until we close below the trendline on the daily. As always, it will be most interesting to watch this play out.

      1. carlvan

        Simple and nice chart Nada! It says to me that, on an intraday 4H basis at least, GC made an underline kiss and good bye. Also, it is quite clear just looking at the chart that we have completed a 5-wave Elliott up impulse since the low of December; sticking to EW rules, we have just completed the “B” of an ABC since the top, and should be now heading to a small 5-wave down, part of the C wave, for the next couple of days. Typically, an ABC correction ends either at the previous wave “4” on the last upwave (majority) or even between top of wave 1 and low of wave 2 (very low odds here, as we are in an early advancing of an IC). Bottom line: @ 1310 I intend to reload the truck on GC and/or miners.

        1. Gary Post author

          Attachment

          How hard does one have to squint to see 5 waves up in this rally?

          This is why I think EW is complete nonsense. They start with an expectation then move to smaller and smaller charts until they find what they are looking for.

  24. jyoung3759

    Attachment

    I agree with that, but most of the time I am not going to try and short a daily cycle in a strong intermediate uptrend especially with gold and its volatility. Its like daring yourself to hold on to an M-80 an throw it just before she blows. Good luck.

    1. Nada

      Agreed. Why I only have small position until more confirmation. I will definitely concur that it is best not to short the advancing phase of the IC. However, I can’t resist 🙂

  25. brii33

    I would short oil before gold . I think certain people just needle gold longs . You have to be a gambler or bad trader to
    Short counter trend gold

    1. Gary Post author

      Logically oil at 30 week into an intermediate cycle has much better odds of producing a winning short trade than gold which is only 5 weeks into it’s cycle.

      But that’s how emotions work. They convince us that because oil has gone up for so long it means it has to keep going up. And since the memory of the last 3 month decline in gold is still fresh that makes traders nervous in gold.

  26. jyoung3759

    Attachment

    Chew on this and taste the flavor. Gary knows what he is talking about. Why play for minute peanuts when better profits can be made off ignoring trying to catch daily cycles. you should be looking for DCL to go long gold for the foreseeable future. Can gold go down sure but the chart strongly suggests that true direction will be higher. I thought gold was going lower up until recently but when the ICL was confirmed I had to reassess the chart and my analysis.

    1. Nada

      Was that suppose to be a drop the mic moment? The last time we were talking gold, I was buying (real time call) at the exact bottom when you told me gold was going lower. How did that flavorable chart miss?

      Again, daily cycles occur and they scare the hell out of everyone. The cycle duration is in question. I have mid March expiration, if we move higher, I add at the swing high. A DC is coming regardless of duration and with my position size and time, I will miss no sleep in my short.

      1. jyoung3759

        Unfortunately I was using an AI cycle chart for that call and those have a poor track record. The only reason it seemed plausible was my check on peak and trough action which supported it. It di not call for this intermediate low to form as it did. I seldom rely on the AI cycle platform. FIrst i very rarely trade gold as i am generally and S&P man but after assign gold with a multiple of input that changed my mind. The problems with the AI cycle software is that unless you get the previous cycle history accurate then results are just as likely to be inaccurate because the underlying placement of important peaks/troughs is not correct. The key is admitting when you are wrong and getting out of any trade at that time anyway.

  27. Bluebellkid

    The Nasdaq ended a shortened week of trading with a gain of nearly 0.6%; the S&P 500 picked up 0.4% and the Dow added 0.2%. Major stock indexes extended their weekly win streaks to three, shrugging off the threat of a possible government shutdown. Small caps were the stars of the day as the Russell 2000 jumped 1.2%. It’s not far from cracking through the 1,600 level.
    I mentioned on Tuesday that the big up day that got negated by a reversal was a red flag. Well, that has been resolved as all indices closed in the upper half of the weekly trading range and some near the highs of the week.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      Here is a classic example of a Financial Analysts’ assessment of the markets.

      Sorry BluebellKid but this truly is classic. You didn’t say anything of value whatsoever. It actually sounds like a regurgitated market recap from some MSNBC host full of vague and worthless info… lol

  28. Goild

    Hope you guys had a good trading week.
    Time to relax, rest to get fresh for next week.
    Enjoy the weekend.

  29. Americano

    Rubber JUST met Road:
    THE Litmus test errrr……Tungsten Test ( forgive me)…..
    USA Govt shutdown.
    Gold HAD BETTER break $1400.
    If not…..
    People will start talking……worse, people will start thinking
    That if gold doesn’t show alive-ness, what’s the matter?
    Where has all the demand for “ store of value gone?”
    Hmmmmmmmm………..
    I’ll be wondering too. From…
    The Mayflower

  30. Nada

    Morning americano. I am happy to hear the seas have calmed for you on your unique voyage. Hopefully Ted can get some rest after the busy week of patching.

    I am not sure why the government shutdown is bullish for gold? It’s not like it’s end of the world. They have happened a lot throughout US history. I guess it depends on a lot of variables, but golds reaction in the past has been mixed, but more bearish than bullish.

    http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-01-18/What-Does-Gold-Do-During-A-Government-Shutdown.html?sitetype=fullsite

    1. Duuuuuude

      I am thinking the shutdown is more about the dollar than it is stocks or gold. If the shutdown is good for the dollar, then I expect we will see gold drop. I really have no idea, but I tend to believe that the shutdown will be bullish for the euro which would in turn be good for gold.

    2. Bluebellkid

      According to ZeroHedge this is the 19th US govt. shutdown in the last 40 years.
      The most recent being Sept. 30 2013 that lasted for 16 days.

    3. brii33

      Key is to lookwhether gold was in a bull or bear during shutdowns . You will get your answers there . I’d be shocked at some point next week if goldwas not north of 1350

  31. Gary Post author

    I suspect the shutdown will be bearish for the dollar as it’s in an ICL decline. If it was in the advancing phase of an IC then the market would find a way to react bullishly to the shutdown.

    I’m going to go over this in detail in the weekend report. But I think we may finally get our short cycle in gold.

    1. Gary Post author

      Do you think they will be rewarded, or punished for trying to get too cute with a first daily cycle?

  32. brii33

    You know as well as I Gary in advancing up leg of a bull market the surprises are always to the upside the pullback so shallow they don’t give you time to get in. The early shorts will be the fuel to the fire

    1. TraderPete

      There’s also a divergence in the TSA indicator, which may be hinting for a pullback in gold and silver.

      1. Gary Post author

        Attachment

        I know lots of traders that have gone broke trading divergences. Like I always say: If one could make money simply by monitoring some indicators on a chart then every Tom, Dick, and Harry would be rich.

        The fact is that price experienced an incredibly powerful rally out of the ICL. The TSI rose to almost 100. There’s no way that can be sustained and it virtually guarantees a divergence even during a sideways consolidation as it’s impossible for the TSI to rally past 100.

        1340 is the resistance level. If price closes above that next week then we’re going to test the September high and maybe the bay bull high. Remember the banks like to exit into breakouts. Something the triggers a lot of unsophisticated buying so they can sell their shares and oz. at the best price. They will make sure price rallies above a resistance zone to trigger this kind of buying and then they exit. The two most likely spots for a top are a marginal break above the Sept. high or a marginal break above the baby bull high.

    2. Gary Post author

      There’s a very simple explanation. The euro has been rallying while the dollar is falling. It’s impossible for gold to rally as much in euros as it has in dollars.

      It makes one wonder if this guy has any idea what he’s doing.

  33. mike trike

    For all you Crypto cultists. The reason cryptos have rebounded is the printing of $650 million Tethers in the last 6 days to put a bid under the market. The whole crypto market is a scam that is kept alive by billions of dollars of Tether printing and illegal wash trading. Stay away. There will be NO liquidity when a few whales want to $cash out!
    Do some research before you buy!

    Here is where you can check out the Tether printing:
    http://omniexplorer.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=3MbYQMMmSkC3AgWkj9FMo5LsPTW1zBTwXL

    Here is an explanation of how crypto market caps are calculated:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAmd0enttBw

    Here is the twitter of the main guy who is exposing this crypto Tether fraud:
    https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed?lang=en

    1. Gary Post author

      Anyone with a lick of commonsense could see all these crypto’s are nothing more than Ponzi schemes. However as long as a Ponzi scheme is making money it’s easy to delude yourself into thinking it’s legitimate.

  34. jyoung3759

    Forget these know it alls as you said are deluding themselves about bitcoin. I have said it before that in 2001 I told my group at Paine-Webber i thought the NASDAQ was going down into the 1300s and they thought I was the dumbest idiot in the world. These were old school boys who had been brokers for 30-40 years and if they won’t listen I sure don’t expect anyone else to. There were all of 1 or 2 of my clients that listened when I implored them to sell the likes of Lucent, Worldcom, Enron, and others. They were all crying 2 years later that they should have listened to me and oh by the way NASDAQ went into the 1100s so I was wrong. Bitcoin is no different and nearly all will go down losing the farm trying to get rich. You taste for greed is blinding you form common sense but this is why you chase these things to begin with despite the sanity you find here in Gary’s approach. The information he gives here for free could build you a nice future if you learned to listen but you won’t because you would rather hold onto your arguments and try to be right rather then build you bank account. Go figure.

  35. jyoung3759

    One last comment here and it’s a good one.

    Trying to give advice to bitcoin investors is like trying to give medication to a dead person.

    1. RTTPD

      Read the other day on another forum that people are still trying to purchase bitconnect tokens in the thought that it might be resurrected one day.

      These are VERY VERY sick puppies…..and abosolutely for sure a ” do not resuscitate” order should be placed on them.

  36. Bob

    Some selected implications as a result of US Gov.t shutdown from this article: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-shutdown-commodities-factbox/factbox-effect-on-commodities-markets-due-to-u-s-government-shutdown-idUSKBN1FB0I4?il=0

    Commodities markets should trade normally on Monday even though key regulators, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), will be operating with skeleton crews due to the U.S. government shutdown.

    Private exchange operators are generally not affected, but weekly economic reports from the U.S. Energy Department and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), key for traders, have in the past been delayed until the government re-opens. (I presume other US Data announcements will be impacted also)

    FINANCIAL OVERSIGHT: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said it would have to furlough 95 percent of employees immediately. An agency spokeswoman said the derivatives regulator could, however, call in additional staff in the event of a financial market emergency.

    The 2013 shutdown caused weekly figures on positions in options and futures to be delayed until after the government reopened. (COT reports)

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