THE PERMA BEARS ARE GOING TO BE WRONG AGAIN IN 2018

Early in 2017 I made a prediction. I knew all year long that we would see one analyst after another try to call a top in this bull market. I also knew every one of them were going to be wrong. A perma bear bias is a great way to sell newsletter subscriptions, but it is completely worthless market analysis.

And just like I predicted, every other day we would see another analyst come out predicting a top. When we moved into the fall the predictions for a September or October crash became deafening. In reality what happened was 2017 produced one of the best years in a long time.

Folks I’m going to let you in on a secret. Bear markets don’t just appear out of nowhere. They require a catalyst. Since 2000 that catalyst has been the bursting of a bubble and a spike in inflation. Inflation is what crushes consumer spending causing the economy to stagnate and decline. Every recession since the 40’s has been preceded by a spike of 100% or more in the price of oil, in a year or less. In 2017 we had neither one of these requirements. Stocks were in a steady up trend but not even vaguely close to the kind of parabolic structure that would indicate a bubble forming, or more importantly a mature bubble ready to pop.

And commodity inflation was at one of the lowest levels in decades (although stock market inflation, inflation in education, and health care, home prices, etc. was running rampant. This kind of inflation however does not trigger a recession.)

Now I’m seeing bearish analysts using sentiment as a valid reason the stock market is about to top. According to these people market sentiment has reached a stage of extreme complacency. Again this is complete nonsense. As I have shown before we aren’t even vaguely close to the kind of extreme market complacency that exists at bull market tops, much less a bubble top (and I think years of QE is going to ultimately produce a bubble before this bull market ends).

At bull market tops small retail traders become extremely complacent, and when they do they buy a lot of call options. They maintain this aggressive behavior for many months. Look at the chart below and decide whether the current market sentiment levels are even vaguely close to the last 2 bull market tops. Now keep in mind I think we have to produce a bubble before this bull market ends and look at where sentiment was during the last bubble in 2000.

 

Source: SentimenTrader.com

Here’s my next prediction. Over the next several weeks we should get a pullback in the stock market. The perma bears will get all lathered up calling for a new bear market, and they will again cause their followers to miss another buying opportunity. This opportunity may be the best in years as I think the early part of 2018 stock prices are going to transition into a more aggressive up trend as the bubble phase starts to accelerate and become parabolic.

Folks whenever you see an analyst trying to call a bull market top from a right translated intermediate cycle, run far and fast in the other direction. Your analyst doesn’t have the slightest clue how markets behave.

Intermediate cycles that top in a right translated pattern, or extreme right translated pattern are just experiencing a temporary profit-taking event. THESE ARE BUYING OPPORTUNITIES!

A bear market will start with a left translated intermediate cycle (a cycle that tops in 10 weeks or less, usually 4 to 7 weeks if a bear market was going to begin). As you can see in the chart below the current intermediate cycle will top in an extreme right translated fashion so there is 0 chance of this being a final bull market top.

I’m going to make the same prediction for 2018 that I did in 2017. We are going to see one analyst after another try to call a final top. This will continue until the parabolic structure becomes very mature, at which point all of these perma bear analysts will capitulate and become bullish. They will have kept their followers on the sidelines almost the entire way up, and they will continue to keep them out of this bull market until we get close to the very top, at which point they will switch sides and become bullish right before the market crashes.

This is exactly the same behavior we have seen in bitcoin recently. It was hilarious how many analysts I saw jumping on the bitcoin train over the last couple of months. Again this is a great way to sell newsletters, but absolutely terrible market analysis. With bitcoin stretched 240% above its 200 day moving average and clearly in one of the largest, if not the largest bubble in the history of the world, this was not the time to start telling your followers to buy bitcoin. The time to do that was 3 years ago.

Human nature never changes…

Folks we’re going to get another buying opportunity in the weeks ahead. Don’t miss it because you are listening to a bearish analyst that is trying to sell you a subscription rather than actually analyzing the market.

We are starting a major bear market in the dollar, and it is going to drive prices of almost everything higher in 2018.

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169 thoughts on “THE PERMA BEARS ARE GOING TO BE WRONG AGAIN IN 2018

      1. Clarence

        In April, Nasdaq was 5900. TQQQ was $88 (approx)

        Today, NASDAQ is 6900. TQQQ was $138 (approx)

        My math stinks. Someone help me, because I think we could be looking at some BIG gains.

        Nasdaq 10,000. TQQQ would be approx………..?

          1. lobster

            10000-6900=3100 points projected increase in NASDAQ (we will use QQQ as a proxy as QQQ is actually NASDAQ 100 not NASDAQ Composite)

            3100 / 6900 = 45%

            TQQQ = 3 x QQQ

            45% x 3 = 134%

            134% x $140 (current TQQQ price) = $327

            However, if QQQ moves up rapidly, the 3x rate of TQQQ will likely be a rate beyond 3x as there is a daily reset…implying a price beyond $327 if 10000 is hit relatively quickly (I would say within the next 6 months)

            Hope this helps.

            Lobster

          2. faz

            I think Lobster’s correct – Ralph’s calc assumes the ratio from Nasdaq to TQQQ will stay the same – but TQQQ multiplies the gains (or losses) in percent terms by 3. On a strongly trending up period the QQQ:TQQQ ratio will increase, if I understood correctly. Hope it helps..

        1. carlvan

          Don’t forget the futures, i.e. E-mini NQ @ $20 per point. It is usually simpler and more cost effective to trade the futures, and you have a leverage effect due to margin. Plus, you don’t risk an opening gap blowing your stop loss. I didn’t make the calcs here but wouldn’t be surprised to see NQ gains would exceed TQQQ in your scenario

  1. jacob2

    Guardedly optimistic about gold and commodities. Not so optimistic about the general market maybe we get a 10 -15% correction sooner rather then later. The next couple of weeks should tell the tale.

      1. jacob2

        Anything can happen and as you know I think we’re past due for a significant CORRECTIVE downside move. When it arrives this year don’t know. Think I’m in good company. In the local MPLS. Paper they had a roundtable of 12 “top” analyst with the exception of one all called for more of the same and end of year PO in a tight range of 2800 – 3000. The exception was Jim Paulsen with. 2450 dow end of year with

        1. Gary Post author

          If that scenario were to play out then we would almost certainly be in a multi-year secular bull market rather than a parabolic bubble.

          Keep in mind the next multi-year cycle low, even if the cycle reverts back to the normal four years, won’t be due until 2020. Hoping for a huge correction before that is probably unrealistic, unless stocks were to generate a very aggressive move that pulls price very far above the long-term mean.

          This is what I mean by poor analysis. Expecting a huge correction just because the bull market is 8 years old is just very poor analysis. Big corrections come when stocks are in the timing band for a multi-year cycle low. Or they occur if price gets stretched way too far above the mean triggering a sharp regression. We don’t have either one of those conditions right now in early 2018.

          1. Gary Post author

            Of course some kind of Black Swan geopolitical event could alter this, but one can’t bet on an outlier event. Ninety-nine times out of a hundred you will just lose money.

        1. faz

          I think it was this video.
          She has a lot of insider contacts and she does paint a grim future. She is amusingly tactful when she tries to avoid saying that a couple of analysts, whom we frequently see mentioned here, are idiots. Thanks for sharing Tulip.

  2. tomsem1

    Hey, am I going crazy or was I just in a parallel universe reading two posts from Gary that said maybe this SM move might just be a runaway move into a secular bull market and not a parabolic move, then a third post that said two scenarios: 10+ year SM bull market or parabolic move, but same strategy in either case: Be long SM. Then all of a sudden those three posts disappeared. I was admiring that Gary had some self doubt about the parabolic move and that he adjusts along the way, very objective and self-disciplined, the main reasons I trust Gary. Now I can’t find those posts and think I am losing my mind, not a great start for the new year.

    1. Gary Post author

      My preferred scenario is a parabolic bubble. I don’t think the FED should be rewarded for QE with a multi-year secular bull market. However, I’m prepared to be wrong if we just continue to grind steadily higher and never produce the parabolic structure in 2018.

      If that were to happen then I would have to assume we started a multi year secular bull market in 2009. Something similar to what began in 1982 and ran until 2000.

        1. Gary Post author

          The trade is long stocks. It’s not that hard to understand.

          One probably doesn’t want to be leveraged 18 weeks into an intermediate cycle but you should definitely have some kind of long position. In fact you should never be completely out of the market now that stocks have begun their vertical phase.

          When we do get a correction then one can convert back to leverage.

  3. Duuuuuude

    Here are some numbers just for fun. Please do not do this unless you really know what you are doing.

    So you want to make $1,000,000?
    1. Subscribe to SMT
    2. Buy NASDAQ 100 Futures when Gary signals the ICL is in.
    3. Set your stop just below the swing low

    If the NASDAQ 100 is at 6500 and you expect it to reach 10,000, it will gain 3500 points. Each point is worth $20, so one contract will make you $70,000 (3500 x $20 = $70,000). If you own 15 NASDAQ futures contracts, you will make $1,050,000. If it reaches 20,000, you will make $4,050,000.

    Margin for a futures contract is $4,500. The initial margin required to own 15 contracts is $67,500.

    I posted this for educational purposes mostly and for fun secondly.

    Please trade responsibly.

    1. Gary Post author

      Probably but miners are a lot more volatile than the stock market and a lot harder to hang onto trades during corrections.

      Also one doesn’t have central bank protection in the metals sector.

      My suggestion has been to use maybe 10-20% of ones portfolio for metal trades but keep the majority in the stock market where it’s much safer and easier to trade.

      And if we do get a parabolic move next year in stocks they may even outperform the miners.

  4. palobar

    @Nada,

    US Dollar:
    On the 8th of Sep’17, it gave an amazing price and time symmetry which aligned perfectly the all time high and the major low in 2008. Based on my research, that type of pattern happens only once in a few years and whenever it took place the move after was fairly significant. My expectation for a 9-month rally was based on the mean duration that I had observed for similar moves. Nevertheless, I clarified also that if the Dollar would break that low, that would be very bearish. The Dollar gave only the minimum reaction (3-months) which is still a long shot compared to what most people here can even hope for. In early December, Leilanifarms posted a chart showing that the Dollar would probably retest a trendline which much lower from where we are. I commented that it is a realistic possibility, and that the bulls in the Euro are in control. So, I did not change my view, I am just adapting to what the market is doing.

  5. palobar

    Gold:
    Regarding my comment last Friday. There is a certain geometry in play here that has been defining every major turning point in this market for the past 150 years. To get a meaningful high or low, you need both price and time to yield that geometry. When that happens, the market will always respond (change direction, pause or accelerate) after that date. The December contract high was $1335 which was amazing since it involved perfectly six major turning points over the past years in terms of price. That is interesting when you know that the 2016 high involved only one turning point. That is the reason I made that comment. However, I did not notice that I did not have a critical timing as well. You need both price and time.

    To make it clear, I am not trying to call any top here. My largest position is in Gold. I just don’t belong to the group of people who jump with every time gold moves a bit higher saying ”…this is it..”
    I had a strong date on the 15th of Dec. I mentioned in early Dec that Gold has put some major lows on Dec over the past years, so those who are short should be careful. Gold moved higher beyond the 15th and we got what you are seeing.

  6. Gary Post author

    Another example tonight why you can’t short the stock market. Even though stocks are due for a drop into at least a daily cycle low they aren’t following through on Friday’s weakness.

  7. TraderPete

    Harry Dent has come out today with his forecast for gold. He says gold could go as high as $1,425 before it crashes to $650-$700, and then ultimately to $400-$450 between 2020-2023. His $1,425 call worries me. That could be the kiss of death for gold for the shot term. Watch out below! Even though I’m still bullish gold, we could get a pullback. So, be careful out there.

    1. Gary Post author

      Late in an intermediate cycle one has to control greed.

      Early in an intermediate cycle one has to control anxiety.

      Gold is only 3 weeks into a new intermediate cycle. This is when you need to turn greed lose. This is the time you should hold the throttle wide open. First daily cycles are when the easy money is made. But not if you don’t recognize what is happening or are still paralyzed by the recent ICL.

      Gold should still have 10-15 more trading days before this daily cycle tops. Any down days are buying opportunities.

      1. Gary Post author

        By the way, Dent is a classic example of completely worthless analysis. He always plays to the bearish side of everything because bearish analysis sells subscriptions.

      2. Cybo33

        I was thinking along the lines of holding my mining/gold plays which constitute about 40% of my portfolio until about early April and then constituting almost everything into the stock market. At least as it stands now.

        Hopefully I do well and become a subscriber at that point. IMO Gary is extraordinary.

  8. Steffmeister

    Is the market going to throw us a curveball here?

    palobar wrote 8th of September, how about the 8th of Januari?

    A said be careful in stockmarket Q3, then I moved the call to Q1-18, but now I am again moving my top call för stockmarkets into Q2 – mayday mayday …

    I am more often wrong than right, but that’s because I am a beginner at this, only 2,5years of experience so far.

    This is bizarre, I still remember the 8th of Februari from last year. A landlord was shoot 5 times by a drugged 15year old immigrant when the kid tried to steal his car 500m from my home. That exact date marked the turningpoint for one of the largest Gold funds Blackrock World Gold A2..

    Same stuff again in December the 15th … and even more so the 29th when palobar posted his 1335 gold post, bizarre isn’t it. Foreigners blew up a policecar outside a policestation in central Malmö.

    To be continued …

    1. faz

      Stiff.. Have you thought about taking your “I am more often wrong than right” offline till you’re ‘more often right than wrong’? Or you just like embarrassing yourself in public ?

      Or maybe you really just want to share swedish scare stories about immigrants. I guess what’s left of the natives in the USA would agree with you there.

      1. Nada

        Since it’s the new years, I will not make assumption.. what did you mean by “I guess what’s left of the natives in the USA would agree with you there”?

        It comes across as if Canada has not been impacted by mass immigration. We all know that to be untrue, so surely that is not what you meant.

        1. vin

          I am quite surprised that you even responded to such a demeaning post. Here he goes again. Anything to justify what suits him. He hates Trump but wants the West to be flooded with pak/Turkey and middle east “refugees” who come here and buy huge houses while being funded by the taxpayers. Figure that one out.

          btw I don’t think he is from Canada. He seems to have no knowledge of NA. He probably resides in uk. In Canada the “refugee” situation is as bad as anywhere else, under the great leadership of Mr. Trudeau who doesn’t hesitate to enjoy the hospitality of Mr. Agha Khan whoever he is.

          1. Jim Dandy

            All once majority white nations are in same boat, under the thumb of zionists and their globalism.

          2. vin

            Jim, calling it a zionist doing is not seeing the reality. I am sure you don’t live in a “refugee colony”. I do. And, I am not thrilled with the changes I see.

            Personally I have nothing against any group of any kind provided they come and assimilate in the culture that has gracefully accepted them. It is the dammed behavior that “we are superior and have the divine rights” while running down the culture of those who pay taxes and gone out of their to help them.

            Most of them don’t even realize that they had to leave their homes because of their thinking and their culture. And, to bring that baggage with them helps nobody.

            They don’t even understand that people like me who were quite liberal minded are now disgusted with what is happening. Sooner or later this “vote bank” politics will stop. And, then what? Will we have mini-Trumps all over.

          3. Nada

            I didn’t want to assume. but I thought maybe his comment meant as much. You can now see why history repeats itself.

          4. Jim Dandy

            Vin,

            They didn´t leave their homes bc of their culture, they left their countries because the bombed them to the stone age. It is a zionist template, and both the western nations AND the Middle East (tribal nations) are vicitms.

            Does it make any sense to label a country terrorist, bomb the chit outta them for years, then invite them to live in the west? It only makes sense if you are a Zionist, breaking down all cultures and people (especially tribal nations as they are more like one big family, thus not as easily socially engineered).

            I think you are naive and only looking at the explanations the Zionists put in front of you. I don´t think these people assimilate, like you, but further most people don´t support open borders. This is proven, yet it continues against the will and votes of the people. It´s not hard to figure out, and I am hardly the first person to recognize this.

            Anyway, it will not change so no need for me to discuss it further. Living next to ro with the problem as you are dosen´t mean you know the template, it just means you need to move.

          5. vin

            Jim, i disagree with you. Either you are not aware of the real situation in the countries “they” come from. Or, you are propagating hate against a certain group without having any proof to support it.

            One does not have to be a genius to see what these people have done wherever they have gone and settled. Neither does it take much to learn about the history and culture of the land they come from.

            Having said all that one has to understand that it is impossible to generalize. Everyone is different. Yet there are certain traits to a group based on its history, culture and upbringing.

            All I want is that those those who have been generously accepted by another culture (many cases alien to them) respect the culture and people of the land they have decided to come to. Unfortunately that isn’t happening.

            Ultimately Trump phenomenon is going take over the west. It may not be an ideal solution. But, it is significantly better than what is happening right now.

          6. faz

            “All I want is that those those who have been generously accepted by another culture (many cases alien to them) respect the culture and people of the land they have decided to come to. Unfortunately that isn’t happening.”

            It’s amazing how people who probably consider themselves educated intelligent etc can’t see further than the end of their own nose.

            What did the Europeans do when they came to America and Canada ? Did they respect ? Or did they commit genocides ? Some with guns and others with free blankets handed out to natives knowing they would catch smalpox or the common cold, that they had no immunity to?

            A man with history as his hobby, Christopher John at Exley Farm told me a great deal about this not long ago – apparently it wasn’t the Brits that killed the natives, we had good relations with them. It was the rest of the Europeans when they came along later.

            Like Gary sometimes says, you guys need to step back and take a look at the bigger picture before you consider yourselves swarmed by immigrants. The ones you are freaking out about, are just the latest wave. Its a funny trait of human nature how those who shout the loudest to shut the door are often the ones that have most recently used it to get in.

          7. faz

            I asked a simple and obvious question. I didn’t say Steff was wrong more than he was right – I was quoting his own comment.

            You see it as ‘demeaning’ ?

    2. Nada

      I think gold needs a global issue before you see price impacted. Some lanlord in sweeden gets shot and that’s a GV event for gold? Surely you are joking.

      1. Steffmeister

        No I’m not I am dead serious. The GV peaks are global yes, but I notice them bcos they are local. The wave of GV sweeps the earth at certain dates.

  9. Steffmeister

    Maybe this is the time that I ‘m right 😛 most analysts are more wrong than right including Gary, that’s why we are here guessing.

    End of Jan we would know for sure. You are right no more scare stories, I will call it GV as in geopolitical violence synchronized with turns in Gold.

  10. Gary Post author

    Well it doesn’t look like the dollar wants to bounce at all.

    It’s pushing everything higher.

    Unless the Fed is prepared to start raising rates drastically higher the dollar is going to unravel and spiral down into the depths of hell.

    The consequences of years of QE are finally coming back to bite us in the ass.

  11. Gary Post author

    It’s dangerous to get too cute with a first daily cycle.

    At the beginning of a new intermediate cycle one has to control anxiety. I think Steff is finding that out right now.

    1. Nada

      Good stuff Gary. I have walked away with a new appreciation for your calls and I have kept a journal with some of your excellent tidbits regarding cycle analysis.

  12. vin

    Where are all the btc folks?

    When is headed to 40k or 50k? Should we expect 100k before the end of the year?

    Or, is it kaput and headed to 1k?

    Expert opinion needed from a specialist.

  13. Steffmeister

    I must admit it’s tough to be a contrarian in precious right now …

    Jim Dandy I think it’s not only the zionists, me thinks the Roman Catholic church is also part of it and European Kingdoms. The old elite is still powerful.

    Violence escalated in my hometown after the Pope visited us. Maybe they paid a bunch of thugs from middle east to create tensions.

    Some say that Sweden is chosen by the elite to test how far they can push us before we go haywire. Looking at the group participating at the Bilderberg meetings, all of them have made some very strange anti Swedish statements. We have had peace for more than 200years so we are a naive, unsuspecting and easy taget I guess.

    There is a sinister plan in play that’s for sure.

    1. Gary Post author

      The time to become a contrarian is when sentiment is extreme. Sentiment is neutral in the metals.

      A novice mistake, yet you try to claim what a great trader you are?

      Don’t enter the challenge. You have no chance of producing any gains in real time. Stick with Monday morning quarterbacking, it’s much easier.

      1. Steffmeister

        Hahaha I must have hurt your feelings in the past Gary, why so hostile?

        I am just trying to help. Every kingdom needs a court jester.

        I am not a trader I am a value investor, buy low sell higher. You are right the guys here are probably much better traders than me. I am preparing for THE BIG SETUP coming soon …

    2. Jim Dandy

      ¨Jim Dandy I think it’s not only the zionists, me thinks the Roman Catholic church is also part of it and European Kingdoms. ¨

      The Church is in the hands of Zionists as well as Europe´s lawmakers. How else can one explain the Pope telling followers to accept homosexuality, among other obvious contradictions to the Bible?

      It´s an interesting and critical issue, but we should get back to trading and investing since this is Gary´s blog and we all have that in common. As I said earlier, my opinion is they have been wildly successful and it is far too late. Just enjoy the show and try to stay out of the way!

      1. x33e

        “Jim Dandy I think it’s not only the zionists, me thinks the Roman Catholic church is also part of it and European Kingdoms. The Church is in the hands of Zionists as well as Europe´s lawmakers. How else can one explain the Pope telling followers to accept homosexuality, among other obvious contradictions to the Bible? ”

        Gary,

        It is sad to see this insane bigoted horseshit marring your otherwise superb blog. Just for the sake of equal time, would you have this psychotic lowlife also smear those of us who are Protestant? I feel left out of the hatred.

    3. RTTPD

      Steff wrote>>>>>>>Some say that Sweden is chosen by the elite to test how far they can push us before we go haywire. Looking at the group participating at the Bilderberg meetings, all of them have made some very strange anti Swedish statements. We have had peace for more than 200years so we are a naive, unsuspecting and easy taget I guess. ”

      Steff —–

      Here is perfect remedy to cure Sweden : Take this female Swedish citizen in the video, and clone her attitude/disposition onto the entire Swedish population.

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wLlIV-g__wY

      Or, you could import a version of the LAPD Rampart Division from 1980’s, about 500 of them……and give them an objective, with a run of the country for a year.

      Problem solved….

  14. Jimsee

    Goood Morning SMTBlog!!!

    1320 gold is a big target – to take that out on a first try would be , in a word, magnificent 🙂

    1475 looking like a median statistic target now. From perusing the sites and seeing the apparent lack of participation in the gold sector – a mere 1% of investable funds allocated could pop us to new ATH in a tightening physical market.

          1. Gary Post author

            Again this is where a working knowledge of cycles can prevent one from making a mistake. The next major multi year cycle low in the dollar isn’t going to be due until 2019. Possibly late 2019 as the YCL came in September this year. So other than brief counter trend corrections there is little chance of the euro mounting any kind of significant rally until after the dollar completes its next 3 YCL.

          2. Gary Post author

            He has managed to convince a lot of people that he has invented an artificial intelligence computer that can predict the future. However if you look at the arrays they are set up so as to be vague enough to be interpreted almost anyway.

            All of the comments on the blog are clearly written by him to bolster his image and sucker in more subscribers.

            In my opinion he’s the biggest fraud in the business. As a matter of fact I think he went to jail for fraud if I’m not mistaken. Apparently he didn’t learn anything.

          3. carlvan

            From Wikipedia: “Martin Arthur Armstrong (born November 1, 1949) is an economic forecaster who uses his own computer model based on pi. In 1999 Armstrong was charged with fraud by the SEC and the CFTC. Armstrong was imprisoned for eleven years on contempt of court and fraud charges.[1][2]”
            (Further on the page, you can see he was also convincted of fraud using a Ponzi schemes to steal Japanese investors money). Not better than Madoff me think…

          4. jskauai

            “Apparently he didn’t learn anything.”
            Au-contrare… he spent that time in jail and learned how to master the fraud and not go back to jail for it.

  15. ocram

    Gary,
    since the US dollar is immersed in what looks like a bear market,which currencies would you suggest to hold as cash?
    The Euro(but it is at risk of Italian elections in march/april) the canadian dollar…the aussie dollar…the yen…the yuan…the swiss franc….the pound or what else?

  16. Jim Dandy

    For those entertaining the idea of taking profits in miners or metals, GDX, GLD, SLV, SILJ, MUX, FFMGF, and many others have today flipped to a BUY on my long term monthly charts as defined by a moving average cross. Gary appears to have got ahold of this call early, and while a consolidation can occur at any time, we should have months of upside. I am not selling a thing until these same MA´s converge (not cross), at the same time the monthly stochastics turn lower.

    1. Jimsee

      good call Jim – techincal confirmation is a good thing to get the ‘no reason’ corwd in mid dec to buy’em up to late march or so. 100% from here on many names (ag/mux) doable imo – even in this IC.

      1. Jim Dandy

        I agree, 100% more than doable. I have my eye on the 8 year cycle McClellan talks about too, which suggests 3 up years in gold followed by 5 sideways to down. If it materializes, it sure would be nice to hold for the next couple years. I can only imagine the upside if gold went to new highs.

  17. Don

    We are so close to a fresh S&P all time high that it would be a shame to not get there for some attention grabbing headlines for the new year. The mining companies (XME) and the semis (SOXX) are leading the charge which is a bit of an unusual combination.

    1. Gary Post author

      The rug pulls, as you describe them, tend to occur during the declining phase of an intermediate cycle. Gold is in the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle.

    2. Autobahn

      You feel that way probably because you were watching every tick for past year of consolidation. And it worked ! It conditioned you to think the way you are right now.
      I paid zero attention to gold last year.
      I don’t feel like rug pull will happen.
      Some consolidation maybe even correction but definitely not rug pull

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve gone over a potential target with subscribers in my nightly reports that I think could get hit before stocks give us some kind of a more significant correction other than just a day or two.

  18. Jimsee

    on AG (first majestic) – it has been turned into a more price of silver sensitive instrument than normal imo – looking at the cost structure and seeing all-in costs rise – it has more the profile now of a leverages play – meaning it will likely accelerate it’s gains for each dollar silver rises above cost of production until silver clears a 20-30% clearance rate above COP – then it slows down.

    Not often u see a leveraged play like this with top management and tons of cash in the bank – the mexican situation has made it hard on them – they need silver above 22 or so to hit top leverage momo imo.

    silver above 25 takes AG to 30 range IMO.

  19. Roy Batty

    Has anyone here heard about the Q Clearance / Q Anon posts on 4chan and 8chan? Supposedly over 9,000 sealed indictments in one month when the usual is 1,000 per year. Something to do with human trafficking, pedophilia, money laundering, MS 13.

    1. roadrunner

      no one really knows about the indictments as they are sealed. this has been happening for about the last 4 months. it is all part of the swamp draining.

    1. bigglaze

      I remember replying to him when he said “let’s short that sucka” …i had said that Facebook is actually a good growth stock and don’t short it. He had said that they don”t physically produce anything but that’s not how they make money. Even looking at the long term graph I don’t see how anyone would bet against it.

    2. Troy

      I enjoyed his posts even though I didn’t agree with his trades. He was a funny guy. I used to get a kick out of when he had a good day in the market, his wife would get some action that afternoon or night.

    1. victor

      for those who missed big moves here, look at VFF.TO it has more potential the ACB, It’s going to move big . VFF is well known tomato /cucumber grower with 4.8mln sq/ft green houses, turning 250,000 sq.ft into cannabis now ready when ACB planning to build…, do your own DDs of course…

    2. Jim Dandy

      I haven´t ignored cannabis stocks, just don´t know enough about the business and politics that might affect them to go in heavy. I own CBWTF, a streaming company that gets a part of the crops for money lent.

      Commodities appear to be the play, so I am comfortable in metals miners, and a little agriculture as well.

  20. Don

    New highs for the S&P as well as the Nasdaq. The markets are starting out 2018 with a bang. I had to talk to someone at my brokerage firm today and it took twenty minutes to get through . They said they were swamped with new clients who were opening trading accounts.

  21. Clarence

    Today was the confirmation day I needed to erase any doubt. After going all in on metals (miners) a few weeks ago, I was actually a bit surprised how lethargic they had performed relative to physical the past few weeks.

    Today was a blowout day, huge volume, huge gains. Now we are going to see huge gains on a weekly basis.

      1. Gary Post author

        Gold may need to consolidate for a few days as short term sentiment is getting extreme. I’ll say again though that it’s dangerous to get too cute during a first daily cycle, especially one this powerful. A consolidation could only last one day and then take off again.

  22. Americano

    Happy New Year!
    It’s 2018 & officially the year of Bitcoin.
    January is typically an bloodbath for BTC…..but $25K June, $50K Dec is in the cards.
    Gold is over $1300 that means gold fans will be behaving like they just saw one of the Beatles & don’t short miners above that, it’s uninteresting.
    Still believe in TQQQ but will wait for pullback Gary talks about…..
    Aboard the……Mayflower !

      1. Gary Post author

        Or one could have listened to Dude and made a hell of a lot more money without the risk of getting caught when the largest bubble in the world pops and losing everything.

        Seriously people, this business is about risk. The risk in bitcoin is gigantic. The risk in metals was very small if you know how to spot ICL’s.

          1. Gary Post author

            Bitcoin would have had to go to $60,000 to match those kind of returns.

            There are much better and safer ways to make money than playing musical chairs with a very mature bubble.

        1. Americano

          Gary,
          It’s about position size. Anyone can be Sgt York with $5-10K.
          Larger position sizes are built to cruise in Bitcoin.
          18 days ago Bitcoin was at $19K.
          33 days ago Bitcoin broke $10K.
          2018 is the year of Bitcoin. It might even be added to the Chinese zodiac after what is coming up.
          This is NOT a time for gnashing of teeth. This is a time of celebration.
          On the…..
          Mayflower.

          1. Gary Post author

            Anyone that has more than 10% of their portfolio in bitcoin deserves to lose everything.

          2. mrsschroeder

            Americano, have you tried selling bitcoins? A friend of mine needed to free 25k for a house loan, it took him one month to make the sell. I don’t know on which exchange, but he started getting nervous. Are the exchanges really that unliquid?

          3. Jim Dandy

            interesting mrsschroeder, thanks for sharing. I agree with Gary, anybody all in on bitcoin is asking for problems.

  23. Don

    I am not convinced that today’s big SM rally is the start of another leg up even though the S&P and Nasdaq made new highs. It would not be surprising to see the market turn back down as soon as tomorrow.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s unrealistic to expect a top before we at least get through the first week of earnings season. I also don’t think we are likely to print the intermediate top until the semi’s test the all-time highs.

      1. cazabrujas

        I think earnings season could potentially ignite the really nutty phase of the parabolic phase. We are about to experience a phenomenon we have not seen for 30 years, as companies, especially the big ones, will start capitalizing on the new law and start to report amazing forward guidance due to the tax cuts and ambitious plans about what they are going to do with the money. This could potentially seep through to the mainstream media and we could get lots of new retail buyers to get in, especially now that tax rates for all those millions they think they are going to make are lower. Just a theory, but if I’m right I am going to make a lot of money with my qqq options

    1. carlvan

      JNUG is correcting but I promessed myself to hold on for long term – I have a stop loss though but much lower, so to not loose all gain from my purchase at 14.54…

          1. RTTPD

            Read his article from 2 1/2 weeks ago where, he like Sunshine profits call this a ” relief rally” and Gold would turn back down after it hit 1280-1285.

            Although no where close to as bad as the gibberish coming from Sunshine profits, this guy was in the MS camp along with others I read.

            Garry has done a way better job than both.

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