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jnug is down today.
Though INDL is up again. This one has been kind to me.
LABU? It ain’t going nowhere is a hurry.
good opp to reload JNUG today after selling yesterday … looking forward to see JNUG in the 20s soon
and, [email protected]
A nice day in spite of jnug.
what is the target for LABU in near term?
I am looking for 91. A pull back and then somewhere close to 100 (most probably 98).
I find it to be every volatile. As Gary has said several times that it is higly influenced by politics.
I like it and I have stayed with it. I am of the opinion that if Gary is right in his predictions of the SM, it will exceed higher 500, i kid you not.
Politics or no politics, I feel that the SM cannot go vertically up while leaving bios behind. But, then I am not an expert in any sense
* …it will exceed 500
Are the miners going to fill the gap today?
Pm miners are great trading vehicles.
Rather see it break but the dollar is very oversold and in bounce territory:
Biotech is where it is at. long TGTX among others
Long time viewer, first time participating in the comments. Gotta hand it to you, lots of great calls, thanks for your insights. I was skeptical of the stock bulls and remained in the gold bull camp the past year getting my ass handed to me but my eyes are opening to the fact that with the amount of credit in the system and the fact everyone is so yield hungry right now, P/E don’t mean shit and stocks are going to bubble status before this is all over. Finally caught some big wins in the Canadian marijuana boom the past 3 months and realized how quickly money can be made in manias. I’m definetly not drinking the kool-aid that the economny is in tip-top shape but I am certainly done being contrarion and trying to call tops or bottoms. I am going to try to remain agnostic on everything and just buy the dips on anything in an uptrend until it doesn’t work then move to the next asset class. If you can point me to any of your archives with good advice on making money in these types of markets I’d greatly apperciate it.
Hi Gary & All
A question for you about Sunshine Profits if you would like to share if they have had much of a track record on PM’s – we all agree Gary is the best & why we are here of course.
However Sunshine Profits seem to be more on the bear side every time i look at their work & now anticipate sharp reversal to lower lows with PM’s & miners.
Any thoughts or experiences ??
I have seen multiple analysts, most quite credible, who believe there will be one more sharp drop in the miners as a whole. Not all of course, but most. Then a sharp reversal and to the moon as they would say, as early as mid-February.
That is the beauty of old Turkey however, you just sit back and take the beating or you crack open the bubbly. You have no decisions to make, you add to positions when you can and you just sit and be patient.
It’s way too early in this intermediate cycle for the sector to take a big drop.
This is why I think it’s important to learn cycles analysis so you don’t make these kind of mistakes.
It’s also way too early for the dollar to complete it’s ICL. Stay focused on the big picture. The megaphone pattern will breakdown soon and when it does the dollar is going to drop into hell sending the metals much higher.
Isavage —-Reading their articles for me was/is the equivalent to listening to the gibberish coming from Baghdad Bob during the Iraq war’s initial stages.
It could be like Gary say’s : Bad news sell news letters……
But I wouldn’t buy a newsletter subscription from an analyst who is dubiously inaccurate.
Anyways…..sunshine profits is prolly the worst analyst out there. Not only are they bad with PM’s – but their record with oil over the last 4 months is equally as bad if not worse. They were continually bearish and missed nearly every call.
It’s almost like they don’t even overlay sentiment or cycles into their analysis. Gary is 10 times better……and I’m surprised Bob Moriarty keeps letting them add articles.
Gary or anyone else care to comment on this pot stock boom, what up with that? Is this what the bitcoin investors are diversifying into. I was considering nibbling on one these and have put cannabis wheaton, CBWTF, on my watchlist. I never chase these momentum plays so right now maybe all I’ll get to nibble on are some brownies!
I bought ACBFF just under $7 on the breakout and sold it at $9. It hit $12 today. LOL. It is tough to hang on at times, just gotta take those wins and not worry about how high it goes. Lithium also broke out yesterday, I like LACDF and PEMIF in that space.
The time to enter anything is before the move begins. Unfortunately that’s not how most traders think. Once they recognize the move that’s when they are ready to jump in. Usually the move is about over by that time as everyone is looking at the same charts so when you are ready to jump so is everyone else and that means we’re about to run out of buying pressure.
If you pay attention to what I do here you’ll see I become bullish when everyone else is bearish. I’m trying to get in early before the trend gets going. Then when it does we’ve already made huge profits and we can ride the move without having to worry about our stop getting hit.
The trade was to buy the metals right before the FOMC meeting. If you did then the strategy is to hang on tight until the trend is finished. That won’t likely be until March or April.
At some point we’ll get a pullback in the stock market. As usual I’ll get bullish when everyone else is getting bearish. Then we’ll get positioned for the next trending move in stocks long before everyone else is ready to pull the trigger.
This is how the big money is made in this business. When the herd can’t get rid of it fast enough you need to take it. When the herd can’t get enough of it you have to give it to them.
I’ve been trying to pound this into peoples heads for about 10 years now. 🙂
Why do you think so many experts think the dollar is going to go much higher this year? I am on board and positioned as you say, however I am a little concerned about the dollar. This waiting game is tiresome at times!
All you have to do is follow the cycles.
Forget about the nonsense fundamentals the herd keeps spouting. I actually don’t think there is any such thing as fundamentals when it comes to currencies. They are like grains of sand on the beach. CB’s can create supply at will.
At some point the herd will concoct a reason for why the dollar is going down. Right now all one has to do is follow the charts and the dollar chart is about as clear as they get.
” Why do you think so many experts think the dollar is going to go much higher this year? I am on board and positioned as you say, however I am a little concerned about the dollar. This waiting game is tiresome at times! ”
I partially attribute this to ” Homer Syndrome ”
Look at this way, even the most sane among Cleveland Browns fans, armed with two top 5 draft picks believe they can win the AFC North next year.
Just finished my analysis on Gold for the following months. Will post it when Gary makes his next update on Gold.
Why do you need to wait for Gary to make your analysis known? Worried about someone missing it due to the title of this blog entry?
Hello Nada. This thread is about the SM.
Yeah I was thinking that as well. I am sure he will put out one soon enough. Look forward to hearing your views. Best of luck.
You are welcome. Well done with your trade on Gold.
Looks like dixie wants to make a swing.
Hopefully gold drops down into a HCL. It’s been 15 trading days since the swing low, so technically I guess a DCL is in the timing band.
There’s your rug pull!
Come on Bluebellkid, you have not trusted the move in gold since 1239. We are in timing band for HCL/DCL. I would hardly compare this to a “rug pull” after a *HUGE* rally.
You are right I haven’t trusted this move and just bailed while I still had good profits. Volume really does matter!
Either way, I hope its a DCL vs a HCL. I am saying that, because I exited a few days ago and have been experiencing a bad case of FOMO. I will wait for the DCL.
More likely a HCL IMO as I doubt the dollar will complete it’s DCL until it reaches the September lows.
I think that was a wise move. The ETF’s are crashing thru the 5 day and I use the word crashing because they didn’t just move down to that line they went right thru it and the line is heading down now. They really need to find support at the 5 day.
I agree with HCL.. I was “hoping” is all. A move to the 10ma seems fitting.
I’ll buy back if they appear to find support at the 10 day. So far the 5 day has provided support.
Thanks Gary for the below.
“It’s way too early in this intermediate cycle for the sector to take a big drop.This is why I think it’s important to learn cycles analysis so you don’t make these kind of mistakes”
Interestingly Sunshine also claim to follow Cycles.
JNUG purchased @ $17.50, 100% of portfolio, Gary e-mailed.
A little slip n slide in the miners, since MUX is down 8% I am adding some here.
I will also add across the board if GDX can get down to it´s 10 day MA, currently at $23.01 but rising steeply.
As you are well aware I watch price/volume action (on the weekly chart). We are midway thru the week and GDX/GDXJ/NUGT/JNUG have all reversed off the highs of the week and are now in the lower half of the weekly trading range. We still have till the close Friday for them to print a bullish close, i.e. in the upper half of the weekly trading range. This is what I will be watching for.
Generally a good spot to buy at during a HCL is a tag of the 10 DMA. This has been an exceptionally powerful rally though. Price may not make it all the way back to the 10.
So far they have bounced back above the 5 day.
So far all that happened was GDX filled the gap.
The best chance for the bears is today (3/1/2018) since we are repeating the 2016 high cyclical pattern. Otherwise, they may have to wait until the end of January to take a breath.
They were throwing them away there for a minute, now the sellers in miners appear to have gotten robbed.
This happened time and again in the 2016 bull, they would open weak and close strong day after day as I recall. I´m not suggesting that will play out the same now, just pointing it out.
JNUG – very nice quick recovery …
Bought JDST as hedge @49
Why not just trim some of your longs? The hedging game is over-rated, and only useful if you have such monstrous long term positions that selling would hurt. In that case, taking a very liquid (high volume) trader against the portfolio could make sense, otherwise it´s just too many moving parts, slippage, spreads, commissions, etc and there is no guarantee the hedge performs as anticipated. Just sharing my thoughts.
Or just buy a put option on the GDX. If price goes down, you make lots. If price goes up, you lose a little.
I did try to warn people that it’s too early to expect a significant trend change.
I suspect many people got thrown off right at the bottom of today’s correction. You just gave your shares to the banksters cheap.
This is one of the things that make it difficult to trade the sector. The banks can easily manipulate price and create selling panics or buying panics so they can either enter or exit at the best price.
If you aren’t prepared for this kind of deception you should just stick with trading the stock market.
Intel dumps and Nvidia pumps up 10% in the last two days. Amazon breaks $1200 making Bezo even more filthy rich than he is. It is amazing what money printing can do for asset prices.
Intel dumped due to a cpu bug. Pretty nasty one too.
Don´t look now Steff, but SVBL might be getting away from you. Nice looking chart.
No worries Jim 😛
My spidey sense it telling me Bitcoin is getting ready for another leg down. Not only was the bounce out of oversold anemic, not even able to reach overbought, but blockchain stock leaders like RIOT area leading the way lower already down 13% today. Bitcoin has some unfinished business in the $6-8K range, in a second leg down.
RIOT chart, for your review. http://schrts.co/1Kfy7G
You can check the WSJ BOW report in an hour for the final print, or I can tell you now.
GDX BOW +189m
GDXJ BOW +123m
Gary is right, banksters picked up shares from the weak hands this afternoon.
My first post here. I have been following this site for a while and I think it is great. I am from Canada and recently jumped back into Canadian gold miners at the beginning of December based on the cycle analysis provided by Gary.
Pardon my ignorance Nada, I am not real familiar with American ETF’s or Stocks (perhaps I should be.) Are those significant volumes for those ETF’s?
Afternoon Mark. Two acronyms you will see come up here time to time;
BOW – Buying on Weakness
SOS – Selling on Strength
WSJ produces a report that has a final print around 5pm eastern time. The report can be viewed here;
I was watching L2 data at the close, so that is how I guessed the prints before the closes. The actual numbers were
So I was pretty close, but no cigar. The numbers sometimes mean something and sometimes they do not. Institutional money likes to buy in liquid environments and the close typically provides such conditions.
Sorry and to answer your question in regard to the money flows. They are above average numbers as of late. In the early part of 2017, we used to see much larger numbers around +400million. However, the last intermediate cycle rarely hosted numbers above 150 million. I am not sure what that is all about.
Got some of mine. I bailed in my IRA retirement account but kept the shares in other accounts. Brokerage fees at Schwab are $4.95 and I would rather be safe than sorry. Been burned several times on the miners.
You did the right thing (in my opinion). This cycle has been super strong and sentiment is a bit whacky. A HCL or DCL is coming soon enough. The dollar made a swing and the Euro appears to be topping.. whatever that’s worth. We can’t trust these BOW/SOS reports. They are just a reference. I have seen prints like these and then gold made a huge drop the next day. So take with grain of salt.
Thank you, Nada.
In fact I took some risk and purchased some call options on a couple of miners, namely fr and edr(tsx).
Though jnug was down quite a bit.
Well the dollar made a swing and the Euro looks like it has topped, but.. who knows.
GDX is #1 and GDXJ – #2 on BoW – Jut updated on WSJ Market Data page.
We had that information an hour ago, here on SMT 🙂
I really doubt the dollar will complete it’s DCL until it has tested the September low. It was just oversold and due for a bounce. It made it back to the broken neckline and it’s possible the bounce will only last one day.
Amazing how these Knee jerk reactions from the minutes coincide. EUR just needs to back up from the creek.
great volatility in jnug/nugt for nimble traders. jdst/dust could not levitate too far, $ bounce could be a one day event?
Isn’t it interesting there’s never any talk about the US dollar LBJ confiscated in his coup d’état.
As Bernard von NotHaus found out that policy is still in place.
Earlier today Gold repeated again exactly the same price and time relationship the defined the high in July’2016. Coincidence, every blog you would read then including this one was extremely bullish on Gold. Gold dropped almost 20%. I am not trying call any top, just highlighting the facts. When it comes to cycles and major turning points, the first message from the market always comes first from sacred geometry. As long as Gold is above 1307 is still in a very strong position. Manage your stop loss just in case.
Does that advice come with a secret hand signal
All about the dollar. White candle schoastic cross:
Clark Kent is from Smallville
Steffmeister is from SMACKville
There goes palobar’s magical number 1307, are we in trouble here or?
It’s just a flesh wound…
Nonsense. Gold just got very overbought and short term sentiment reached extreme bullish levels. Gold just needs to cool off for a bit. There isn’t anything unusual about this. Study previous advancing intermediate cycles.
The likely turning point would be on the employment number Friday.
The intermediate cycle still has many weeks yet to run before topping.
Seriously people haven’t you figured out by now how these things work?
Buy the dip on Friday pre-market before unemployment numbers come out.
What’s with all the hand wringing regarding gold?
It’s over $1300! You gamblers you with your leverage.
Even I can see that. So far away…..
On the Mayflower.
No hand wringing, and no leverage here. Nor do I have my retirement funds invested in magic beans just because everybody else has bought them.
Bitcoin has seen the top. One of the biggest idiots I know when it comes to investing contacted me yesterday on Whatsapp to ask what I know about cryptocurrencies. I told him not much and I don´t own any but I saw them go straight up last year, he said he just bought some! When I asked why he decided to get involved now, he said that an idiot he works with just quit the job because he is making over $10K/month buying cheaper cryptos. Notice he said ¨cheaper¨crytpos, not bitcoin, a sure sign a market is mature (if not done) is when the crap starts going up big like the leader did.
This happened just yesterday, I hope you have room on the Mayflower for these guys too! LOL!!!
Forgot to mention, I saw this guy on Halloween night in 2017, and not once did anything cryptocurrency get mentioned, now he has already bought in only two short months.
Is there a currency crisis coming? Predicted by The Economist back in 1988.
Is this chart a sign of a deflationary spike event coming in 2018, it works very well with my ideas about a low later in Gold …
The Elite is in charge here folks!
Hmm I think I know what is going on here, I will post a chart later. I’ve fooled Gary here, by mistake of course.
Mother Nature loves harmonic proportions, I was too early with my call for a dollar collapse. This aligns perfectly with the big fractal in Gold.
Here again you need to understand cycles and you will see why that chart pattern isn’t going to play out. The dollar has already confirmed a failed daily cycle. That means the larger intermediate cycle is now in decline. The correct pattern is the megaphone topping pattern. So there is virtually no chance of the dollar rallying, instead the magnitude of the breakdown is going to be extremely destructive this year in the dollar.
From your USD chart, the precious metals and miners could have a lengthy run to almost 2020 if it plays out that way. I hope we are able to stay on for meat of it.
Could not a financial crisis drive the USD back to the top of the megaphone? I am not predicting this, just a question if a possibility.
It’s too late. The intermediate cycle has already left translated. A financial crisis now would accelerate the dollar lower.
Notice the dollar has already been rejected this morning from the broken neckline and gold has reversed.
The surprise in 2018 will be just how far the collapse in the dollar goes. If the Fed doesn’t recognize quickly the risk to the currency and start raising rates drastically higher immediately there is no telling how far the dollar is going to fall this year.
Who are these “bamksters” you reference? Are you referring to central banks? Private sector bankers? A consortium? Can you name names?
That would be “banksters”.
No he can not name names. snitches get stitches
Ok comments were closed in the newest thread so I am going to post it here:
I think I was a year and half early with my call for a dollar crash. I borrowed FullGoldenCrown’s chart from Goldtent:
We got another year before a dollar crash imo. that aligns well with the big fractal in Gold. Right now the right shoulder looks lame, we need a more muscular right shoulder 🙂
Looks like the bots have turned their focus to gold, the way the bids and asks are flashing like crazy.
The rally in S.Bull was trigged by Clive Maund, I would not take it too seriously …
Let us see what today brings.
INDL above 105. This one is a real beauty.
LABU is down a bit. And so is JNUG.
Have a nice day everyone.
Great day for the equity bulls — just not for Natural Resources…. Diversification.
Wrong or right this is my current thought on IBB…
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