105 thoughts on “Stock market update

          1. vin

            I am looking for 91. A pull back and then somewhere close to 100 (most probably 98).

            I find it to be every volatile. As Gary has said several times that it is higly influenced by politics.

            I like it and I have stayed with it. I am of the opinion that if Gary is right in his predictions of the SM, it will exceed higher 500, i kid you not.

            Politics or no politics, I feel that the SM cannot go vertically up while leaving bios behind. But, then I am not an expert in any sense

  1. splex

    Gary,

    Long time viewer, first time participating in the comments. Gotta hand it to you, lots of great calls, thanks for your insights. I was skeptical of the stock bulls and remained in the gold bull camp the past year getting my ass handed to me but my eyes are opening to the fact that with the amount of credit in the system and the fact everyone is so yield hungry right now, P/E don’t mean shit and stocks are going to bubble status before this is all over. Finally caught some big wins in the Canadian marijuana boom the past 3 months and realized how quickly money can be made in manias. I’m definetly not drinking the kool-aid that the economny is in tip-top shape but I am certainly done being contrarion and trying to call tops or bottoms. I am going to try to remain agnostic on everything and just buy the dips on anything in an uptrend until it doesn’t work then move to the next asset class. If you can point me to any of your archives with good advice on making money in these types of markets I’d greatly apperciate it.

    Cheers

  2. isavage

    Hi Gary & All

    A question for you about Sunshine Profits if you would like to share if they have had much of a track record on PM’s – we all agree Gary is the best & why we are here of course.

    However Sunshine Profits seem to be more on the bear side every time i look at their work & now anticipate sharp reversal to lower lows with PM’s & miners.

    Any thoughts or experiences ??

    1. primetime

      Hey iSavage,
      I have seen multiple analysts, most quite credible, who believe there will be one more sharp drop in the miners as a whole. Not all of course, but most. Then a sharp reversal and to the moon as they would say, as early as mid-February.

      That is the beauty of old Turkey however, you just sit back and take the beating or you crack open the bubbly. You have no decisions to make, you add to positions when you can and you just sit and be patient.

      1. Gary Post author

        It’s way too early in this intermediate cycle for the sector to take a big drop.

        This is why I think it’s important to learn cycles analysis so you don’t make these kind of mistakes.

        1. Gary Post author

          It’s also way too early for the dollar to complete it’s ICL. Stay focused on the big picture. The megaphone pattern will breakdown soon and when it does the dollar is going to drop into hell sending the metals much higher.

    2. RTTPD

      Isavage —-Reading their articles for me was/is the equivalent to listening to the gibberish coming from Baghdad Bob during the Iraq war’s initial stages.

      It could be like Gary say’s : Bad news sell news letters……

      But I wouldn’t buy a newsletter subscription from an analyst who is dubiously inaccurate.

      Anyways…..sunshine profits is prolly the worst analyst out there. Not only are they bad with PM’s – but their record with oil over the last 4 months is equally as bad if not worse. They were continually bearish and missed nearly every call.

      It’s almost like they don’t even overlay sentiment or cycles into their analysis. Gary is 10 times better……and I’m surprised Bob Moriarty keeps letting them add articles.

  3. jskauai

    Gary or anyone else care to comment on this pot stock boom, what up with that? Is this what the bitcoin investors are diversifying into. I was considering nibbling on one these and have put cannabis wheaton, CBWTF, on my watchlist. I never chase these momentum plays so right now maybe all I’ll get to nibble on are some brownies!

    1. itsinthedna

      I bought ACBFF just under $7 on the breakout and sold it at $9. It hit $12 today. LOL. It is tough to hang on at times, just gotta take those wins and not worry about how high it goes. Lithium also broke out yesterday, I like LACDF and PEMIF in that space.

    2. Gary Post author

      The time to enter anything is before the move begins. Unfortunately that’s not how most traders think. Once they recognize the move that’s when they are ready to jump in. Usually the move is about over by that time as everyone is looking at the same charts so when you are ready to jump so is everyone else and that means we’re about to run out of buying pressure.

      If you pay attention to what I do here you’ll see I become bullish when everyone else is bearish. I’m trying to get in early before the trend gets going. Then when it does we’ve already made huge profits and we can ride the move without having to worry about our stop getting hit.

      The trade was to buy the metals right before the FOMC meeting. If you did then the strategy is to hang on tight until the trend is finished. That won’t likely be until March or April.

      At some point we’ll get a pullback in the stock market. As usual I’ll get bullish when everyone else is getting bearish. Then we’ll get positioned for the next trending move in stocks long before everyone else is ready to pull the trigger.

      This is how the big money is made in this business. When the herd can’t get rid of it fast enough you need to take it. When the herd can’t get enough of it you have to give it to them.

      I’ve been trying to pound this into peoples heads for about 10 years now. 🙂

  4. primetime

    Gary,

    Why do you think so many experts think the dollar is going to go much higher this year? I am on board and positioned as you say, however I am a little concerned about the dollar. This waiting game is tiresome at times!

    1. Gary Post author

      All you have to do is follow the cycles.

      Forget about the nonsense fundamentals the herd keeps spouting. I actually don’t think there is any such thing as fundamentals when it comes to currencies. They are like grains of sand on the beach. CB’s can create supply at will.

      At some point the herd will concoct a reason for why the dollar is going down. Right now all one has to do is follow the charts and the dollar chart is about as clear as they get.

    2. RTTPD

      ” Why do you think so many experts think the dollar is going to go much higher this year? I am on board and positioned as you say, however I am a little concerned about the dollar. This waiting game is tiresome at times! ”

      Primetime —–

      I partially attribute this to ” Homer Syndrome ”

      Look at this way, even the most sane among Cleveland Browns fans, armed with two top 5 draft picks believe they can win the AFC North next year.

    1. Nada

      Come on Bluebellkid, you have not trusted the move in gold since 1239. We are in timing band for HCL/DCL. I would hardly compare this to a “rug pull” after a *HUGE* rally.

        1. Nada

          Either way, I hope its a DCL vs a HCL. I am saying that, because I exited a few days ago and have been experiencing a bad case of FOMO. I will wait for the DCL.

          1. Gary Post author

            More likely a HCL IMO as I doubt the dollar will complete it’s DCL until it reaches the September lows.

          2. Bluebellkid

            I think that was a wise move. The ETF’s are crashing thru the 5 day and I use the word crashing because they didn’t just move down to that line they went right thru it and the line is heading down now. They really need to find support at the 5 day.

  5. isavage

    Thanks Gary for the below.

    “It’s way too early in this intermediate cycle for the sector to take a big drop.This is why I think it’s important to learn cycles analysis so you don’t make these kind of mistakes”

    Interestingly Sunshine also claim to follow Cycles.

  6. Bluebellkid

    As you are well aware I watch price/volume action (on the weekly chart). We are midway thru the week and GDX/GDXJ/NUGT/JNUG have all reversed off the highs of the week and are now in the lower half of the weekly trading range. We still have till the close Friday for them to print a bullish close, i.e. in the upper half of the weekly trading range. This is what I will be watching for.

  7. Gary Post author

    Generally a good spot to buy at during a HCL is a tag of the 10 DMA. This has been an exceptionally powerful rally though. Price may not make it all the way back to the 10.

  8. palobar

    Gold
    The best chance for the bears is today (3/1/2018) since we are repeating the 2016 high cyclical pattern. Otherwise, they may have to wait until the end of January to take a breath.

    1. Jim Dandy

      This happened time and again in the 2016 bull, they would open weak and close strong day after day as I recall. I´m not suggesting that will play out the same now, just pointing it out.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Why not just trim some of your longs? The hedging game is over-rated, and only useful if you have such monstrous long term positions that selling would hurt. In that case, taking a very liquid (high volume) trader against the portfolio could make sense, otherwise it´s just too many moving parts, slippage, spreads, commissions, etc and there is no guarantee the hedge performs as anticipated. Just sharing my thoughts.

  9. Gary Post author

    I did try to warn people that it’s too early to expect a significant trend change.

    I suspect many people got thrown off right at the bottom of today’s correction. You just gave your shares to the banksters cheap.

    This is one of the things that make it difficult to trade the sector. The banks can easily manipulate price and create selling panics or buying panics so they can either enter or exit at the best price.

    If you aren’t prepared for this kind of deception you should just stick with trading the stock market.

  10. Don

    Intel dumps and Nvidia pumps up 10% in the last two days. Amazon breaks $1200 making Bezo even more filthy rich than he is. It is amazing what money printing can do for asset prices.

  11. Jim Dandy

    My spidey sense it telling me Bitcoin is getting ready for another leg down. Not only was the bounce out of oversold anemic, not even able to reach overbought, but blockchain stock leaders like RIOT area leading the way lower already down 13% today. Bitcoin has some unfinished business in the $6-8K range, in a second leg down.

  12. Nada

    You can check the WSJ BOW report in an hour for the final print, or I can tell you now.

    GDX BOW +189m
    GDXJ BOW +123m

    Gary is right, banksters picked up shares from the weak hands this afternoon.

    1. Mark

      Good Afternoon,
      My first post here. I have been following this site for a while and I think it is great. I am from Canada and recently jumped back into Canadian gold miners at the beginning of December based on the cycle analysis provided by Gary.

      Pardon my ignorance Nada, I am not real familiar with American ETF’s or Stocks (perhaps I should be.) Are those significant volumes for those ETF’s?

      1. Nada

        Afternoon Mark. Two acronyms you will see come up here time to time;

        BOW – Buying on Weakness
        SOS – Selling on Strength

        WSJ produces a report that has a final print around 5pm eastern time. The report can be viewed here;

        http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html?mod=mdc_leader

        I was watching L2 data at the close, so that is how I guessed the prints before the closes. The actual numbers were

        GDX 184million
        GDXJ 126million

        So I was pretty close, but no cigar. The numbers sometimes mean something and sometimes they do not. Institutional money likes to buy in liquid environments and the close typically provides such conditions.

      2. Nada

        Sorry and to answer your question in regard to the money flows. They are above average numbers as of late. In the early part of 2017, we used to see much larger numbers around +400million. However, the last intermediate cycle rarely hosted numbers above 150 million. I am not sure what that is all about.

    2. Bluebellkid

      Got some of mine. I bailed in my IRA retirement account but kept the shares in other accounts. Brokerage fees at Schwab are $4.95 and I would rather be safe than sorry. Been burned several times on the miners.

      1. Nada

        You did the right thing (in my opinion). This cycle has been super strong and sentiment is a bit whacky. A HCL or DCL is coming soon enough. The dollar made a swing and the Euro appears to be topping.. whatever that’s worth. We can’t trust these BOW/SOS reports. They are just a reference. I have seen prints like these and then gold made a huge drop the next day. So take with grain of salt.

    3. vin

      Thank you, Nada.

      In fact I took some risk and purchased some call options on a couple of miners, namely fr and edr(tsx).

      Though jnug was down quite a bit.

  13. Gary Post author

    I really doubt the dollar will complete it’s DCL until it has tested the September low. It was just oversold and due for a bounce. It made it back to the broken neckline and it’s possible the bounce will only last one day.

    1. jake

      Isn’t it interesting there’s never any talk about the US dollar LBJ confiscated in his coup d’état.
      As Bernard von NotHaus found out that policy is still in place.

  14. palobar

    Earlier today Gold repeated again exactly the same price and time relationship the defined the high in July’2016. Coincidence, every blog you would read then including this one was extremely bullish on Gold. Gold dropped almost 20%. I am not trying call any top, just highlighting the facts. When it comes to cycles and major turning points, the first message from the market always comes first from sacred geometry. As long as Gold is above 1307 is still in a very strong position. Manage your stop loss just in case.

      1. Gary Post author

        Nonsense. Gold just got very overbought and short term sentiment reached extreme bullish levels. Gold just needs to cool off for a bit. There isn’t anything unusual about this. Study previous advancing intermediate cycles.

        The likely turning point would be on the employment number Friday.

        The intermediate cycle still has many weeks yet to run before topping.

        Seriously people haven’t you figured out by now how these things work?

  15. Americano

    What’s with all the hand wringing regarding gold?
    It’s over $1300! You gamblers you with your leverage.
    Even I can see that. So far away…..
    On the Mayflower.

    1. Jim Dandy

      No hand wringing, and no leverage here. Nor do I have my retirement funds invested in magic beans just because everybody else has bought them.

      Bitcoin has seen the top. One of the biggest idiots I know when it comes to investing contacted me yesterday on Whatsapp to ask what I know about cryptocurrencies. I told him not much and I don´t own any but I saw them go straight up last year, he said he just bought some! When I asked why he decided to get involved now, he said that an idiot he works with just quit the job because he is making over $10K/month buying cheaper cryptos. Notice he said ¨cheaper¨crytpos, not bitcoin, a sure sign a market is mature (if not done) is when the crap starts going up big like the leader did.

      This happened just yesterday, I hope you have room on the Mayflower for these guys too! LOL!!!

      1. Jim Dandy

        Forgot to mention, I saw this guy on Halloween night in 2017, and not once did anything cryptocurrency get mentioned, now he has already bought in only two short months.

    1. Steffmeister

      Hmm I think I know what is going on here, I will post a chart later. I’ve fooled Gary here, by mistake of course.

      Mother Nature loves harmonic proportions, I was too early with my call for a dollar collapse. This aligns perfectly with the big fractal in Gold.

    2. Gary Post author

      Here again you need to understand cycles and you will see why that chart pattern isn’t going to play out. The dollar has already confirmed a failed daily cycle. That means the larger intermediate cycle is now in decline. The correct pattern is the megaphone topping pattern. So there is virtually no chance of the dollar rallying, instead the magnitude of the breakdown is going to be extremely destructive this year in the dollar.

      1. Jim Dandy

        From your USD chart, the precious metals and miners could have a lengthy run to almost 2020 if it plays out that way. I hope we are able to stay on for meat of it.

  16. Gary Post author

    Notice the dollar has already been rejected this morning from the broken neckline and gold has reversed.

    The surprise in 2018 will be just how far the collapse in the dollar goes. If the Fed doesn’t recognize quickly the risk to the currency and start raising rates drastically higher immediately there is no telling how far the dollar is going to fall this year.

  17. Steffmeister

    Ok comments were closed in the newest thread so I am going to post it here:

    I think I was a year and half early with my call for a dollar crash. I borrowed FullGoldenCrown’s chart from Goldtent:

    http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4647/38787474114_95eabcceea_b.jpg

    We got another year before a dollar crash imo. that aligns well with the big fractal in Gold. Right now the right shoulder looks lame, we need a more muscular right shoulder 🙂

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