229 thoughts on “TRADER PSYCHOLOGY PART 3

  1. Duuuuuude

    One of the best comments on the COT i have read written by a frequent SMT poster Roboman.

    roboman says:
    November 27, 2016 at 9:54 am

    Understanding the Gold COT report:

    To all new subs and for those just trying to understand how to use the Gold COT report better. The Gold COT is a tool that can be used for helping you take/make a new MT position at Gold’s ICLs. It can also be used to help you make decisions about reducing position size at ICTs. I’m posting some comments/links about this today. Let me be clear here. This is just another tool, and is NOT about Golds next ST move. As we all know it could continue lower. The guessers will continue with their calls and let them continue since they really are the herd. This is about how the current data from the COT can help you make better MT trading decisions, but not as a standalone indicator.

    I’m posting this again for anyone that REALLY wants to try and understand the Gold COT report better. There are many articles, and opinions on the internet about how to use the COT. Many Guru’s are always telling us how they use it, and many times they are wrong. I’m showing you how I use it with OTHER indicators to help me identify how the Large Specs are betting to much on the next move (up or down). Again, it only gives a warning shot on what is coming. I’m posting some articles that I think will give you an easy to understand, bigger picture, about how to use the gold COT report.

    If used correctly it gives out warnings, and when used along with other data can help you take better MT positions. I will post three links below sometime today, and it requires you to read them. You really should take notes if you are old like me and my memory has faded some.

    I use to post this data, but got tired of it being called garbage etc so I haven’t posted it in sometime. I’m posting it again because some of the articles I have been reading in the forums about the Gold COT report.

    Take notes IF you are really serious about understanding the data and how it can be used to HELP you spot turns. The COT is part of other indicators I use like Gary does. I mainly use Sentiment and Cycles too, and a few TA indicators. It doesn’t mean I don’t track the GOOD EW guys, but it’s not part of my system overall system.

    So, I monitor the COT to try and help me pick turns…. Bottoms and Tops, but the COT should NEVER be used as a standalone indicator in my opinion like some try and do in these forums.

    Please read the article below next and then come back to my comments. Take your time and read it twice. Take some notes or save the link if you REALLY want to increase your knowledge on this subject. ( Please see my first gold chart below after reading and I’ll add others later)

    I will be doing this in three parts. This is not for ST traders. It’s for those taking MT trades like Gary does, and using the COT to help you try and spot turns. Gary updates this data weekly, because he use it too. So, part one is posted, and I know some will disagree with me and that’s fine. It’s time to start my brisket and I’ll be back later.

    A very easy to understand article below: Part one….

    How to Use the CoT Report in Gold Investing?
    Friday April 29, 2016 17:12

    How to use the CoT report for trading purposes? Investors can, for example, monitor speculators (either large or small, but large should be better), as they tend to be most bullish just prior to significant price tops and most bearish before the significant price bottoms.

    Given that the net positions of commercials reflects net positions of non-commercials, investors may also watch them, as they tend to be most bearish just prior to significant price tops and most bullish just prior to significant price bottoms. This is why data from the CoT reports can be used as a sentiment indicator in the gold market. However, investors should use it just as such, not as a timing indicator, as there are no absolute benchmarks of bullishness or bearishness which could trigger investment decisions (for example, commercials are often on the long side of the market before a major rally begins).


    I’ll post the rest later for those that are interested. Sorry I have no time to edit now…..

    It’s time for some Football!

    Enjoy the games today if you like to watch football.

    1. RTTPD

      Dude —-

      Thanks for posting that. It makes lots of sense how Jouni’s analysis in the last thread about a massive reversal in gold is seriously flawed.

    2. faz

      In case the link problem is due to the long URL I shortened it to this.
      (I tested it works without any login needed.)

      Hope it helps.

      PS Thanks for sharing this, Duuuuuude.

  2. Gary Post author

    Now Armstrong is claiming he predicted the rise in the euro. LOL

    The biggest euro bear has now changed his story and wants us to believe this was his call all along.

  3. isitpossible

    Gary: Is there a good resource/book/etc where we can learn/study cycles trading, really appreciate your insights.

      1. Bob

        That’s correct. Best learning resource unless you think you’re smarter than the teacher. In that case you might want to shop around for someone that’ll tell you what you want to hear. Mirrors are cheaper though.

        One thing I’ve learned with Gary is that if you can clearly communicate, preferably in a polite manner, where you are not understanding something and you’ve made some effort to research the matter yourself, then Gary has respect for that and will show respect to you. Granted his priority has to be his subscribers but he seems quite committed to helping all.

  4. Americano

    Who made this masterpiece? Leonardo DaGary?
    Favorite of the series thus far!
    Requisite viewing by all those on……
    The Mayflower !

    1. Gary Post author

      You need to pay attention to the part about controlling greed before you lose everything.

      Parabolas are the bell ringing to sell. Look what happened to the tech parabola in 2000. The silver parabola in 2011. The oil parabola in 2008.

      Bitcoin on the other hand produced the largest parabola the world has ever seen….

  5. Gary Post author

    At this point there is no question the stock market is in a bubble. The only question is whether we will get some kind of pullback once the semi’s tag 1362.

    This is why gold has bottomed. Some of the smart money is already getting into position for when the stock bubble pops. That liquidity will have to flow somewhere when this happens, and it’s going to flow into the same sector that it went to in 2008 when the last bubble popped. Commodities. This time it’s going to focus in the precious metals rather than the energy market, but all commodities should benefit.

    And the Fed will make the problem so much worse because they will use more QE to try and reflate the stock bubble.

  6. dboz

    The metals are just cruel. Big surge yesterday with the market closed so no one gets to profit and then wake today and it’s all gone already. Wiped out. Time to buy will be March to April after the next big dollar bounce. Then ride the metals with the dollar tanking. Another head fake here. Another shake out coming. This is not the train leaving the station. Not yet.

    The COT is too bullish. Worse than July 2016. Not going to be a repeat of the last 2 years in Dec-Feb. C’mon, that would be too easy for everyone.

    This week is a buying opp for GBTC before the split. It will be an easy double in two weeks time from the 22nd. New BTC ATH coming soon. 24k. Should push GBTC near 5k

    BTC could be well over 100k by end of year.

    1. faz

      dboz – how do you mean “wake today and it’s all gone already”? Don’t follow… thanks for clarification.

  7. Nada

    Bitcoin gartley update. Notice where she bounced, same fib. Double bottom bounce so far. Doubt it holds. Target still 8-9k

  8. Nada

    Xauusd update. So far, short is ok. I will add to a confirmed swing high and stop out above 1355 on xauusd.

  9. Gary Post author

    Folks watch the weekly charts. That’s what should guide you early in an intermediate cycle.

    There will always be traders that try to fight the intermediate trend. They will even win maybe 1 in 4 tries. They will consistently lose money over time but that’s why it’s called gambling. That one win is enough to convince people that they can outsmart the trend.

    It’s why gamblers go back to the casino time after time even though most of the time they walk away losers. Every once in a while they win and that feeds the addiction, keeping them coming back.

    The correct trade is to buy dips. It’s still too early in the intermediate cycle for a top. It’s probably too early even for a daily cycle top. All that is happening is the ECB is trying to stop the euro from rising. They are going to fail, but that doesn’t mean they won’t keep trying.

    Everything is playing out exactly as anticipated. The first bubble in bitcoin is imploding. Smart money sold at the top and moved to the next bubble (the stock market). Dumb money will keep holding until they have lost everything because they failed to recognize the signs.

    Smart money is already starting to position some capital to profit when the next bubble pops. That’s why gold and stocks have been moving higher together.

    When the stock bubble implodes it will be gold’s turn and big money has been moving into this sector all year in anticipation of what is going to happen when the next bubble pops.

    1. Jim Dandy

      I joke around a lot with the bitcoins guys here, but to be serious I have to admit the Bitclowns are some of the dumbest money I have ever seen, if not the dumbest. I´m not referring to anybody here on the blog, I mean the ïnvestors¨I see all over youtube. I would not want to be on the same side of their trades, not to mention the worst investors I know personally are the ones either asking about bitcoin, or already in and trying to get friends and family to buy. They pressure like a cult would do, and it´s amazing to watch them get all worked up and emotional (screaming HODL), which should be their first sign they have lost rational decision making. And it dosen´t matter to them how wrong they have been in the past, this time they know something. Dosen´t matter that ALL parabolas end the same, this time is different, and they can´t see that they are not early investors as they like to fancy themselves, but are indeed very, very late to the party. Charlie Lee was early, and I will pay attention to his moves in the future.

      I think bc of the combination of bitcoin already being the world´s biggest bubble, combined with the level of blind followers, this one will end up worse than we can imagine and it won´t take years to play out.

  10. Nada

    Gary definitely giving the best advice. I am keeping my position in options short at no more than 1k. I question the duration of the cycle being stretched, so I am rolling the dice here. My stop is defined.

  11. Gary Post author

    The market is already acting to defeat the ECB intervention and gold is already nearly back to even.

    At five weeks traders need to control anxiety, not greed.

      1. RTTPD

        I think Jouni is just one of about four different monikers here used by the same person to push/flaunt their gold perma-bear bias over and over and over here. This person obviously doesn’t have any skin in the game because they’d be flat broke by now.

  12. Gary Post author

    Notice how every down day doesn’t panic traders in the energy market. It should though as energy is very late in its intermediate cycle.

    95% of all traders do the exact opposite of what they should do at tops and bottoms. Now is the time to be anxious in oil and greedy in gold. Yet most will do the exact opposite.

      1. Norm

        Hi Gary, any thoughts on when you will go back on leverage on the stock market? I “controlled greed” and took some money off the table as you mentioned going off leverage awaiting a pullback. Think you said maybe a sell the news this week on earnings may do it. Thanks.

    1. loneranger

      My guess is that if you own BTC you don’t sleep much anyway . . . or you keep one eye open at all times. Lol

  13. Jim Dandy

    Read the comments on this bitcoin forum, hilarious! NOT ONE person says to sell, or even step to the sidelines, all just advising hold forever, or buy more, with such reasons as it´s good for humanity. Then there are guys quoting Buffett incorrectly saying ¨buy when there is blood in the streets¨, when he actually said he thinks all altcoins will be worthless in less than 5 years. LOL!!!


    Not one seller in the group, yet somebody obviously is selling out, and they don´t wonder who it is?

  14. ocram

    a curiosity…..the time on the right after the date is the time in las vegas?
    This would mean that you are awake so early in the morning??

  15. Gary Post author

    Well it didn’t take Jouni long to start cursing, become disrespectful, and get tbe boot.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Sign of frustration, because his trading stinks. At least we can watch his losses mount on the world trading championship, wherever that is. Since he was more concerned about being right than making money, it must be killing him that he can´t respond to comments about him. With his temper and his faulty reasoning, something tells me he won´t be in 2019´s competition.

  16. Goild

    Good morning,

    Just checking in.
    Wise and profitable trading to all.

    Nice to see the feature to upload graphics!

  17. JJHarmen

    The S&P chart is curving upward very nicely, a true parabolic move. The central banks must be very pleased with themselves.

    1. Don

      The central bankers must know how all bubbles end. I think we are going to see some policy changes from the FED, BOJ and ECB real soon before things get out of control.

  18. splex


    Would you be able to share a lesson on cycles or if you’ve covered it in detail before, please point us towards an older video that explains them?


  19. Jim Dandy

    Nice to see the miners up today. The blockchain stocks are foreshadowing more downside in the crypto ¨coins¨. I missed the marijuana stocks since they didn´t reach oversold on my charts, and I am starting a position in uranium miner NXE, will build on it over time as I get a feel for it.

      1. Jim Dandy

        Thanks for pointing that out, much appreciated. I will have to keep an eye on NXE, see if more sales occur before I get heavy.

        Thanks again!

        By the way, do you like UEC? It´s on my list of candidates as well, we are getting close to the 50 MA, and the 200 isn´t much further after that, so might pick some up if we can get another weak day in the group tomorrow.

  20. Goild

    Good day isavage,

    Hope you make good money on UVXY.

    I got rid of 1000 UVXY and along other trades got paid today 🙂
    I will keep the 500 UVXY in the swing account.

    1. isavage

      Great Work Goild 🙂 I was supper lucky & had a sell order filled pre market at the low & now have put back in 50% of my hedge as we are in the turn zone if this bull in the Indexes has legs still

  21. isavage

    looking like a classic reversal candle though so will be fast to flip on this if not showing any recovery in the indexes 😉

  22. victor

    LYDIF is still cheap to enter, open pit mine production should start this year. People pay more money for a dozen wholes and promises in the ground then mining all ready to start

  23. Jimsee

    Goood morning SMTBlog! perusing LT charts today it seems jnug has a bead on 100+ by the 2nd IC this year.

    Hopefully Gary nails both cycles this year and we have a Giant happy crowd here.

    Buying mar jnug calls 20-25 zone…i know prems…actively trading against prem with underlying.

    A spurt of outperformance and 15-1 looks possible.

  24. jskauai

    Gary. what are your thoughts about the cannabis sector? I recently bought into a company Cannabis Wheaton who is using the streaming model in that sector similar to what the streaming companies in PM sector have done. Any thoughts?

    1. victor

      don’t bother, Gary is refusing to understand this sector…, hold Weaton as milky cow for the future. I have 10k shares here and will buy more on dips, did you buy close to 2$?

      1. Roy Batty

        I think you’re right on weed stocks. Sessions take down is a buying opportunity. I’ve just started searching for investments and don’t have a clue. Can you recommend a good source of information and/or some stocks that I could research? Thanks.

      2. jskauai

        Victor, Yes I bought CBWTF being in the US. There is a gap on the daily chart around the mid $1.70’s that I thought may act as support in this recent selloff and I bought there. It did fall to the 20 dma though which was another logical place to enter.
        Victor what is your thoughts on Namaste Technologies, NXTTF?

        1. victor

          I’m for co with big potential and undervalued compare to others in industry. ( except ABCN as it medical but I like their 40mln cash, where they are looking to put it? )

  25. Jimsee

    people forget that gdxj traded ~150 in 2010…

    $cdnx making new highs over 2016 fwiw…mucho bueno!

  26. Jimsee

    Armstrong is sounding a bit like a lunatic – perhaps he is going to be the best contra for this cycle?

    According to his own ‘stuff’ I believe SILVER has proven a bottom in the corrective cycle – not typically exceeded before at least a retest of previous highs (above 40).

    This should not be possible is all the currency volatility is going to crush precious metals to the dust (well below 1000 gold) before the phoenix arises. In any event if we can profit handsomely on a large UPmove we can be subsequently be well positioned with hedges for any last-manipulation to shake out the public.

    Trading is not forecasting but a good forecast map gives u an edge – I don’t think he has a clue at the moment anyway.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t think I would be buying leverage in any of the stock etf’s at the moment. We’re 21 weeks into an intermediate cycle. If stocks move down into an ICL the biotechs will likely follow.

      1. vin

        Thank you Gary. I agree with what you say. On the other hand an 8% drop was a bit too tempting. I am hoping to get out with a small profit.

  27. Christian

    OIL — The chart I’ve included is more of an exercise than an actual price projection, so use it at your own discretion 🙂

    I often like to use a combination of channel trendlines, support/resistance lines and fib levels to pin point areas of possible congestion where price may stall briefly during a cycle and/or within an intermediate trend. This is where most retail traders get lost in the fog and why it is so important to keep a focus on the big picture.

  28. Bluebellkid

    A bit of a reversal going on with stocks – maybe just gap fills but this is possibly how the market will top – a new high and then a reversal. Biotech’s taking it on the chin.

  29. rborna

    Does anyone have advise to buy XIV in addition to TQQQ, instead of just TQQQ?
    It has been outperforming it. I realize they are different things but they go up together.

  30. Jim Dandy

    Zero bounce in bitcoin or the other magic beans, I´m expecting more downside tonight and tomorrow. Nada is going to have to extend his Gartley´s down another couple thousand points!

    The good news for those that are long is we should see a bounce sooner or later, maybe high enough to get out where it was this morning around $12K, but only after another sharp puke lower.

    Poor Teddy is losing money on all sides, short miners in leveraged funds, and long imaginary ¨coins¨. All you gotta do is HODL.

  31. Nada

    Bitcoin folks are quiet. Wait until the low breaks. Drop to 8k is going to be brutal.

    Anyone seen Ted? All his buys of dashusd not looking so hot.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Still nobody is thinking ¨sell¨on the message boards, means we have a lot lower to go. Only a little whining at this point, it won´t be over until 75% of them have stopped out or tossed in the towel to save what is left.

      And it goes out right at the low of the day, all aboard the puke bus!

  32. Rhino18

    Here’s where I stink as a trader – exiting a trade!! I am getting better at picking entry points, but I’m awful with exits. I know I should have an idea of when to exit even before entering, but I don’t. Case in point, I own 300 shares of JNUG. I bought 100 at 16.69 and 200 at 17.51 As I type JNUG is trading at 19.80. Pretty nice gain. In the past I have sold my positions too early only to watch the position go higher and higher. So this time I am holding on, even if we trend sideways or drift lower for awhile. I have enough of a “cushion” to do so. I am looking at exiting JNUG when gold hits $1355 or so. I am then hoping for a pullback in gold and JNUG so I can enter again. Any thoughts?

    1. Nada

      Seems late in the DC to be buying JNUG, but that’s me. I think a better strategy is to wait for DCL before re-entry. If you are having FOMO, try unleveraged.

      1. Rhino18

        Thanks Nada. I agree it might be too late to buy JNUG here. I’m struggling with when to sell my 300 shares with an average purchase price of 17.23.

        1. roadrunner

          Well you could always sell some as it rises. This way you are not trying to get every penny of every share. That way you are banking profits. You could also convert those sales to GDXJ if you think it is longer term going higher, then convert back to JUNG near a cycle low for some leverage.

    2. vin

      Rhino18, I also find selling much trickier than buying. I bought jnug at 15.45 and got out at 19.06 today simply to watch it shoot up. I would add that it was against Gary’s advice i.e. that it is too early to sell yet.

      And, this is just one example. Sometimes I am tooooo early and then sometimes I am tooooo late in selling. But, then if I make a nickel I am not going to complain too much.

      Why not ask Gary or subscribe to his newsletter?

      1. Rhino18

        Vin, thanks for the comments. I agree, selling is trickier than buying. Since I’m not a subscriber to SMT yet, I don’t feel I can ask Gary. Although by watching his videos and reading his posts you know how he feels. Maybe I should sell tomorrow and take some of the profit a buy a subscription!

        PS nice trade on JNUG

  33. Spanglish Inquisition

    Closed tqqq: +24% (166$)
    Closed april qqq 160C: +175% (8.95$)
    Closing april qqq 154C: +115% (13.17$)

    On the gap higher today. Gary says the Cycle is extended and I expect a brief pullback into February. Plan: I will reenter long at this time.

  34. JJHarmen

    Someone better put some big SPY orders in before close. Gotta make sure the S&P closes up after crossing the 2800 threshold. The DOW is doing okay and looks like it will close up though so maybe that will do.

    1. Jim Dandy

      That chart confirms the parabola has busted, and unlike the other big down day in December, there is no bounce any longer, just dripping lower with occasional sharp air pocket even as the majority of HODLers continue to advice buying more. They were obviously all in already bc the buying can´t overcome the deluge of selling.

      The sellers are eerily quiet on the internet forums, non existent, must be some of the big holders unloading to those late to the party, and they don´t want to spook the kool aid drinking dip buyers.

      As I type, chitcoin is in the 10K´s already, and Ripple only lost 40% in the last 24 hours (51% in last 7 days, so the move lower is accelerating).

  35. vin

    where are you, ted?

    Do you think this is “another” top for jnug? How many more “tops” are we going to get? Please advise. There are many who can’t wait to hear your wise words.

    And, now that btc is below 11k, do you think it is good time to buy? When do you think it will reach 40k?

    Please respond quickly because time is of essence. Eagerly waiting …………

  36. Gary Post author

    I tried to get bitcoin holders to control greed. It’s the only way to make money in a bubble.

    I think only one person listened to me. The rest are on their way to losing everything. Many are already underwater. Some could still get out with profits if they sell now but most won’t. They can’t accept that they gave back a massive chunk of their gains and so they will keep holding hoping for it to go back up.

    Then they will start losing money quick as the bubble really starts to implode. At that point they won’t be able to sell because the losses are just to huge for them to accept. They will ride it all the way to the bottom and finally sell after they’ve lost everything.

    1. SUBBA

      I learned big lessons in Tech bubble as I was in Silicon Vally at that time

      if you don’t release the gains ..it is a paper money or money in the air based on my theory:)

  37. victor

    Guys, please don’t make fun from Ted and other btc holders, many of us been in approximate positions.
    Hold on Ted, it’s not the end of the word.
    5yr old girl pined between two cars in front of her father died today, that’s a tragedy….

    1. Nada

      Morning Victor. Ted brought this on himself. When he first joined the blog, his intentions where to ridicule PM holders and talk about how gold was done and how crypros were for the smart kids that would soon rule the world. These actions is why Ted has been highlighted and not directed at other Bitcoin holders.

  38. Americano

    Guys –
    Don’t worry. Ted is here with me on the Mayflower.
    We are taking on water and are weathering the storm. Remember we signed up for this. Staying in England…was/is unacceptable.
    What is this setting up?
    Massive drama turnaround. $25K June still destination. It will happen if not before then ( still counts prediction wise).
    It’s NOT comfortable.
    It’s a Heros Journey.
    Thanks for your support.

  39. Roy Batty


    When is a good time to buy bitcoin … can you give us a heads up at the next ICL? LOL 😉

  40. RTTPD

    Listened to an analyst on the radio today say that some of the uptick in Visa and Mastercard the government was joyfully reporting as an uptick in retail spending for the holidays was actually people taking cash advances to purchase bitcoin and other cyrptos.

    Bottom line…..many were/are borrowing money to speculate on cryptos.

  41. carlvan

    Still holding JNUG bought at 14.53. Carefully following Gary’s updates on intermediate cycle duration probability, and personnally intend to get out when/if GC exceeds 2016 highs. But in order to not leave &all the money on the table I have a stop loss in place near the last HCL of Jan 9,in fact, slightly above. So, I am still greedy, but with caution 🙂

  42. carlvan

    About the SM correction today, not sure this is the “good one” as SOX still hasn’t reached the 1360’s…

  43. Bluebellkid

    Stock indexes made a bearish reversal Tuesday, in the first sign that the market’s hot start of 2018 is cooling off. Indexes gapped up at the open, but soon started paring gains, with no apparent trigger. They went negative about 2 p.m. ET and continued to drop steadily until they stabilized in the final hour. By the close, the damage was widespread. Since September, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had traded within price channels that guided their advance. But starting last week, indexes rose above those price channels. The Indexes do remain in longer-term channels. Today was also a “distribution” day.
    In real time this price/volume action is a Red flag folks and it will get resolved one way or another.

    1. Christian

      But more importantly.. Will you pull the trigger at the next ‘buying’ opportunity, or will you find a reason not to?

      1. Bluebellkid

        That’s a good question there Christian, but right now capital preservation is number 1 and I will worry about that when the time comes. I may not buy the exact bottom as some of y’all but I will get in. You have no idea how good it felt to be on the sidelines during that last sell off (’08-09). And I did pull the trigger on a potential huge winner I just couldn’t sleep at night with 30,000 shares – in one of the webinars I listened to not too long ago the guy made the comment that you have to buy an amount of shares that you can sleep at night with and that sure hit home. Is see the Futures are up triple digits this morning so here we go again off to the races. Whenever IBD rang the bell at the top in 2000 I had been conditioned to buy the dips and all the talk of the “new paradigm” influenced me. I figured it would be another small pullback and then up and away. Our American Century Ultra and Select tech funds in our 401K’s were growing by leaps and bounds and no one at work wanted to get left behind including me – I learned a valuable lesson. And once the sell off began that talk of we are in it for the long haul and dollar cost averaging is a bunch of BS. For one thing the leaders of one Bull Market rarely lead the next one so being all in tech was not good as it sold off and sell off it did and not a good prospect for the next rally.

  44. Americano

    Overheard by the water cooler…..

    “The biggest gains in investing come when you bet against a gloomy crowd, on the upside. The low price already bakes their opinion in. Your losses are limited to 1x, and your gains are uncapped.”

    The Mayflower.

    1. Jim Dandy

      You are getting smoked, including your retirement funds, and nobody wants on the Mayflower with you. It´s all you will have left soon, to come here and compare yourself to a pilgrim. How you arrive at your 25K by May or 50K in 2018 numbers with ¨fundamentals¨is beyond me, and the technicals sure don´t support it either, with the typical busted parabola pattern.

      Might as well face it, it will be many, many years before chitcoin gets back to just $20K, if it ever will. I bet it won´t, and even if it did, there would be some serious resistance at 20K this time around. The best option for you is to sell immediately and save what little gains you have left, before it gets really ugly. It´s not just me that thinks $6K is in the bag, this chart suggests the same.


      My 2018 prediction is Americano will disappear from the SMT blog soon, the pain of being so wrong is too great, maybe worse than all the money lost. Teddy is already in hiding until the next blip higher in chitcoin, but we all already know he has lost 70% or so of his money thus far. Some people are more concerned about being right than making money, and when their accounts don´t support the idea, they just fantasize (eg Mayflower, lamborghinis, etc).

      As I type, chitcoin is now in the $9K´s…look out below as all the latecomers get washed out.

  45. RTTPD

    From Rickards :

    ” Bitcoin whales have not lost a dime in the meltdown. They sold futures. For every dollar lost on coins, they make a dollar on futures. It’s little guys who piled in who got hurt. Bitcoin’s not the future; it’s the same old scam “

  46. Jim Dandy

    I fully realize this isn´t chitcoin per se, but it is close enough and reason enough for regulators to step in and clump all ICO´s and cryptotokens together, so it´s easier for them to ¨manage¨. It´s the perfect excuse.

    I called this out as a ponzi here at SMT about a month ago, aaaand… it´s gone!


    In short, the upside is limited in tokens bc they compete with our criminal governments so they will stifle the growth, OR if the crap tokens keep going down, the governments win anyway. Heads you lose, tails they win, every time.

    1. RTTPD

      Jim ——

      That is completely insane!!!

      The owners closed up shop and left…..

      One guy says he lost 500k from a business loan……and now wants to get another loan to invest back into cryptos to make the 500k he borrowed back!!!

      Suicide hotlines!!

      These people are first time investors and they couldn’t run fast enough to Cryptos in great fear of missing out….

      Is this a ruse or is it real!??

      1. Jim Dandy

        And those that bought in were all over youtube pushing others to get involved bc they made referral bonuses, a typical ponzi setup. Many of these same dupes were enthusiastically involved in the whole crypto token meltup recently. I would estimate about 75% of the channels I follow on youtube turned their investments to tokens, and the other 25% began making videos on bitcoin and tokens in general, meaning everybody was already in.

        Bitcoin is going to get smoked, along with all the alt tokens. It´s way to soon to pick a bottom, as bounces are being sold heavily. I am only beginning to see panic out there this morning, while yesterday everybody involved was saying buy more, or HODL, but not talk of selling.

        Who knows more, Charlie Lee who rang the bell at the top for billions in profit selling ALL his Litecoin, or an anonymous, pretend pilgrim named Americano? As stated a few weeks ago, Charlie Lee´s exit was a huge tell not to be ignored. All Teddy could say was ÿou don´t know why charlie lee sold¨, as if it matters when a founder cashes out of everything in an instant.

        The comments in that article are priceless.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Maybe the bit token can get a 20% bounce after it hits that $7K level, putting it back up to $9k, a little lower than it is right now. Best choice, sell now and not find out if it gets the bounce, second option is to sell the next 20% dying gasp rally, when it occurs.

      Your Gartley´s work well! 🙂

      1. Jim Dandy

        I bet gold and silver´s 5000 year history as stable money isn´t looking so bad right now, to those getting smoked in magic beans.

  47. Gary Post author

    The bigger the bubble, the bigger the crash.

    Bitcoin by virtue of being the largest bubble in history will join the ranks of Tulips and the south seas bubble and go to 0.

    And the underlying block chain technology: I’m still not convinced there is a real need for a decentralized ledger system.

    1. Jim Dandy

      And this sharp decline isn´t done yet, either, the blockchain stocks and GBTC predicting more downside short term. It´s going to get real ugly before it stabilizes at much lower levels.

    2. faz

      There was some report I saw recently how Maersk and IBM are getting together to use blockchain based contracts to remove 20% of shipping costs caused by paperwork. I was surprised that the paperwork can be 20% of the cost – apparently its because there are multiple parties involved, not just two (buyer/seller etc).

  48. vin

    ted, your wisdom is being greatly missed.

    btc below 10k? Will it go to 1k or 100k? When do you think it will be 40k, your first taget? Or, is it 50k?

    Re. miners, they aren’t performing that well today. Do you think they topped yesterday or shall we see a few more tops.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s not quite excessively bullish just yet. I expect gold will test the September highs before this first daily cycle tops.

    2. Jim Dandy

      Buttcoin bounces look to be a thing of the past. Fun to watch while I wait for DCL in miners to add to positions.

      KRippled is only down 55% in the last week.

    3. Arthur

      Here is the link on Bob Moriarty.

      CEO Technician: If a crypto investor liquidated their portfolio completely here what should they do with the cash? Buy gold?

      Bob Moriarty: The Daily Sentiment Index is flashing a warning signal for gold right now. The best place to keep cash right now is in cash. The stock market is about to fall off a cliff and cash is a good place to be. This is the great reset and Bitcoin could be the pin that bursts the “everything bubble.” Cash is a great place to be right now. If we got one more washout in gold & silver the decks would be clear for a fantastic rally in precious metals.

      Online gold coin sales soar 400% as cryptocurrencies plunge

      According to CoinInvest Director Daniel Marburger, the company sold almost 30kg of gold, worth $1.2 million in the spot market.

      It “was a hell of a crazy day,” Marburger told Bloomberg, adding that “emails and phones did not stand still with customers asking how they could turn their crypto into gold.”

      He said that one bitcoin currently buys about eight one-ounce Britannia gold coins. Physical gold bullion holds attraction for bitcoin investors because the assets have much in common, explained Marburger.

      “Both are limited in quantity, easy to trade and you can store them decentralized,” he said. “The advantage for gold – no passwords you can lose, the volatility is much lower, sustainable growth and in the end you can hold your investment in your hands.”

  49. Gary Post author

    I’ve said this before but it bears repeating again. The banks will paint the tape in the miners to get people to let go of their shares cheaply. We saw this exact thing happen during the half cycle low. Gold just went sideways while the minoers were hammered down far enough causing many people to let go of their shares before the next leg up.

  50. jacob2

    Trader Psychology, pain. All but gone and forgotten from current market psychology of overwhelming optimism. The wall of worry gone. Think we get a return of pain sometime this Spring. Cash always a safe haven and wonder if gold will resume it’s historic role.

  51. allthatglitters

    Fascinating to watch the crypto implosion unfold.

    We should keep in mind that a massive Bubble does not necessarily mean the asset class is all worthless or has no future. Real Estate and Tech Stocks had their bubbles, and imploded as all bubbles do. But quality real estate and tech stocks are still quite valuable, in some cases now even more than their bubble peaks. I personally think Bitcoin will be worthless or close enough to it, but a few of these alt coins have brilliant technology and have real potential.

    But what will become of this sector in general. It will suffer the same fate as all new innovative technology. Governments will step in, regulate, effectively kill the ones they don’t like, and pave the way for big corporations to take over the ones they do like.

    I like Ripple and Iota, and I might invest a very speculative grand in either AFTER the slaughter is over and no Bitclown wants to touch any crypto with a 10 foot pole.

    But I don’t believe in any crypto as much as I believe in Gold. Go JNUG.

  52. Gary Post author

    Bob has been trying to call a top in stocks for awhile.

    We have to finish the bubble first.

    Finally the semi’s are nearing those all-time highs at 1362. Once that is reached we could get a pull back in the stock market before the final maniac phase.

  53. Christian

    I realize that controlling anxiety is easier said than done for most, but there’s nothing wrong with Metals and Miners right now.. They are simply consolidating for the next leg up.

    In fact, we have several days left in this 1st daily cycle before one should consider selling or deleveraging.

    1. Nada

      Maybe. Maybe not. The last IC was pretty skewed in my viewpoint. The NK issue and fire and furry tweet made a complex IC. The first DC was “stretched” for sure – 60 calendar days or 44 trading days? There is no denying that. Look at the previous IC, the average daily cycles lasted around 28-40 days. We are on day 36 now.

      Not really a debate on that gold can not march on for a longer duration. However, its a big red flag and going into leverage at this point in the cycle is not wise. The last IC is not reliable to use as a timing band, daily cycles being expanded to 50-60 days is silly, until we see the pattern repeat in another IC.

        1. Nada

          Are you counting trading days or calendar days since ICL? Look at the chart I posted. I listed 24 bars (trading days) since the ICL. Now look at 2 IC’s back, they averaged 21-24 days. The previous IC is too jacked to attempt to use as a reference.

          When I said 36 days, that was calendar days not trading days. We are on trading day 24 by my count

          1. Gary Post author

            Look at the currencies. That is what is driving gold’s first daily cycle.

            Does this look like the euro has topped yet?

            The most likely trigger for the currency reversal will come on the FOMC meeting or if the euro can tag it’s bear market trend line.

          1. Christian

            Opinions are often wrong around here Lol! 🙂 That’s why it’s useless to argue.

            Do what you think is right.. Ultimately the Market will either reward you or squash you like a bug!

          2. Christian

            Lots of people ‘argue’ their points on this blog and find themselves on the wrong side of the trade more often than not. Look at your Crypto friend Ted and others that have since disappeared.

          3. Nada

            Yes, I am thinking of pattern right now that didn’t play out. Its OK to be on the wrong side of the trade, it happens. A lot. Its how you define your risks. That’s why I prefer options.

            In regard to others that disappear. Yeah its silly. Not sure why they cannot present a trade idea and be wrong. I am not sure why they run away? God knows I have been wrong on ideas, a lot of the times they do not work out.

  54. Nada

    OK, so its starting to already creap up in the news. Boohoo, poor millennial snowflakes. How pathetic. Now they need a suicide hotline because they can not handle the pain of being a jackass. Buying an asset that has rallied over a thousand percent and stretched far above the mean does not warrant “special protection” for them. Soon we will hear talks of bailouts, because their “magic beans” did not grow.

    No, they need to learn like all the others.

    “Suffer the pain of discipline OR suffer the pain of regret.”

  55. Americano

    Nada –
    Excellent Gartley call !!!!
    I think I saw &8900 show up!
    Such tumultuous seas currently. Sea sickness rampant.
    Our compass & route is plotted…..
    We proceed to $25K by June……….
    On the Mayflower.

    1. Gary Post author

      Bitcoin is going to hit 0 long before it ever gets to 25K.

      You refused to acknowledge the parabola. You failed to sell into it.

      You refused to sell into the bounce that I warned would be the last opportunity to exit with gains.

      Now you are on the path to holding all the way down until everything is gone.

      Just like I predicted…..

      Human nature never changes.

    2. Nada

      @Americano Thanks. Maybe the 200dma is good place to get long if it corrects that far. Good luck battling the high seas. Stay safe my friends.

  56. Americano

    Important to note in regards to Bitcoin – this theory that banks manipulate it like they do with gold contracts and will for decades more.

    Total open interest on CME is 730 = 3650 BTC. Nothing compared to actual bitcoin exchanges or compared to margin trading on Bitfinex (20k longs, 10k shorts) and Bitmex (29k BTC open interest on BTC swap+futures.).

    THIS is why I chose the Mayflower. I believe that there is sooooo much more gold in the world than there is demand & the supply is ELASTIC.
    Bitcoin is an actuarial dream due to it being FINITE. INELASTIC supply.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Meanwhile, you have lost half your money while singing the same tune, and could not even sell into a December parabola even as you admit Januarys are always ¨cataclysmic¨. Bitcoin dosen´t have any properties that another token can´t have overnight, and that is the problem with your analysis, nobody needs bitcoin, in particular, and supply is not fixed if you take into account very, very similar competing tokens. Don´t think for a minute that the bitcoin ¨brand¨means anything.

    1. Christian

      I don’t feel tortured 🙂 even though OIL is a cranky old girl and does require a bit of patience.

      1. Nada

        You are short? I guess it depends on where you entered and how much of your portfolio is involved. Late in the cycle, but as we know.. Topping is a process. Bottoms are an event.

        1. Christian

          Yeah, I picked up some OILD a few days ago on that reversal candle 🙂

          Just had a quick look at USO.. Looks like it’s consolidating in a triangle for possibly one more push up. Another great opportunity to go SHORT.

    1. carlvan

      come on, be greedy 🙂 If gold exceeds the high of 2017, and perhaps 2016, expect higher for JNUG (it already broke above 20 today)

  57. carlvan

    Today DX is leaving the huge megafone, on the downside – acceleration in order? Or temporary reversal?

  58. mk


    AAPL, AMZN and GOOG are reporting earnings on Feb 1st. FOMC meeting is on Jan 31st.
    If I were a smart money, I would start a correction on the 1st of Feb, right after the FOMC meeting and sell the news from the big 3.

  59. bluelagoon

    Gary – SOXS has hit your 1350 (1362 tops) – point at which you predicted there would finally be a correction in the markets. Are you still thinking this?

    1. Gary Post author

      Once 1362 is reached that will be the best opportunity for a correction. If not then we are entering the final crazy phaze and one better hold onto their hat.

      1. Bluebellkid

        The SOX Index is “breaking out” today from a six week cup with handle. Problem is this – a proper cup should take at least 7 weeks so the chances of success with a 6 week cup are greatly decreased. The handle is also flawed also increasing chances of success. Things are pointing to what Gary suspects will happen once the old high is reached or breached. I’m keeping an eye on SOXS for Swing Trade.

  60. TraderPete

    Gold and silver have a strong seasonal tendency to rise from mid-December to mid-March. Also, Sunshine Profits sees PMs going down from here, which is a good sign that they will go up.

    On another note, Kim Komando, the digital goddess, is now investing in Bitcoin. A sure sign that it will go to zero.

    I’m trying out this new feature. 😎

  61. Bluebellkid

    Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC), which staged a tremendous price run of more than 1,500% in 2017, plunged as much as 18.3% intraday before shaving a majority of those losses.
    Yet shares in the Bitcoin-tracking exchange-traded note still dropped more than 7% to 1,607 and severely undercut the critical 50-day moving average for the first time since peaking at 3,522 in December. Concerns of South Korea mulling a move to ban cryptocurrency trading are apparently still weighing on traders.

  62. ted

    And there goes Gold (a top has been made!) I knew it would never fill the gap!

    BitCoin is bottoming nicely and scaring everyone. Watch 2018 for the cryptos! Everyone will believe!

    1. Nada

      Ted, you have been calling for a top in gold for over 2 weeks now. Eventually you will get one right. I think we are a due for a hunt to a DCL, but I don’t believe its a top in gold.

      I also said you sold your DUST position (10k loss) around the bottom, looks like I was right about that. You are the last person that should be gloating around here, as your calls have been absolutely horrible.

      Very nice bounce in bitcoin though.

      1. ted

        That’s too bad Nada, I was about to start a newsletter service, and was about to comp you for the first two weeks!

        1. Nada

          LOL. Come on Ted, you know I have to call you out after some of those calls 🙂 Its OK though, we have all been there with crap calls.

          Hell this is TWICE now that gold did not gap fill for me, lol. I was sure it would before this daily cycle completed – and it may still, but my money is on a hunt for DCL.

  63. Nada

    I “think” my timing band has potential here. Posting chart again. The previous IC is unusable at trying to pick a DC band (red) in my opinion – skewed by NK crisis. Going back 2 IC’s we see a more accurate representation of the daily cycle (purple) durations.

    I am not calling a victory here (we need to see how gold reacts to 10ma), but I am green with the GLD puts I took on Friday. I really do not want to add to them until I see a close below. Gary has provided the best advice about not trying to short the first daily cycle. I defined my risk with options and I love to gamble, so since its a small bet I have not worries. I will sleep like a baby no matter what gold does.

    In my view, the hunt for the DCL has begun and we find a bottom at FOMC. We need the “extra” (17 trading days until FOMC) time to cleanse the bullish sentiment 🙂 Yeah, thats a bit of a hole in my theory here. 17 days is not unheard of, but a little long.

  64. Jimsee

    I’m guessing not 1 in 1000 buyers of bitcoin have a clue about it’s manifold weaknesses that are sold as strengths (transaction costs,etc..). These things loosely understood form a mirage of virtue at least until transaction volume and footprint are tremendously improved.

    But hey – comedians are literally espousing blockchain in their shows, confident that btc or a cousin will rule the world in a decentralized manner (just don’t ask how long it will be…)

    1. Jim Dandy

      Some say Bitcoin has first mover advantage, which means almost nothing with zero barriers to entry in competing ICOs. They also forget that Aaple Computer took 25 years to dominate after inventing the first home computer, and almost went bankrupt 10 years into the journey.

      Bitcoin´s flaws will be corrected in a new, improved crypto, and that will be the end of bitcoin, just like we don´t see model T´s on the road anymore except in the hands of eccentric collectors with money to burn. The only difference is it will happen much quicker now with technology and no barriers to entry (like investment capital need to build another factory to manufacture cars). Some millenial sitting in his underwear in his mom´s basement is dreaming up a better coin as we speak, and it will cost nothing to launch. Technology changes fast, the concept stays (blockchain), but the specific names change all the time.

    1. Nada

      Afternoon palobar. Interesting how your dates line up with the new moon. I know you like riddles, but is 17-18th turn to the downside dates?

      1. palobar

        Hello Nada. This time window is unrelated to the new moon although I acknowledge the influence. If this time window cannot stop Gold, then I would assume that most likely Gold could stay bullish until late February. As long as Gold is above its key moving averages it is still in a strong position.

        1. Nada

          Good to have your viewpoint. Let’s see what time brings. I think you have seen from my posts today, that I see a possibility for a hunt for a DCL. The BOW at the close gives me some pause though.

          1. palobar

            I have not read any other comments yet. However, I did notice the improvement with the various posted charts. You could be right about the DCL. We will see. If Gold keeps moving higher after this time window I think it will be another piece to the bullish scenario outlined by Gary and others.

  65. ted

    Miners definitely looked toppy today. I think even Gary would agree. Also the dollar made a big doji!

    1. Jim Dandy

      You always say the same thing, besides, you don´t have any money left so can´t afford to bet.

  66. Nada

    A lot of BOW in miners at close, so maybe another tag of the 10ma and gold marches on.

    My guestimates. Look at WSJ at 5pm eastern for final print
    GDX +220m BOW
    GDXJ +128m BOW
    GLD +62m BOW

    My hunt for a DCL theory my be in some trouble here. With that said, the prints on the tape at close – I have no idea if those are in real-time or if they are unsettled trades from earlier in the day. Take them with a grain of salt.

  67. Nada

    Hell, maybe tag of trendline and bounce to fill the gap. Until we see a DCL, not really sure what to expect for a DC duration in this IC.

  68. SLEP

    It looks like to me that gold has topped out and is headed for 1050 in the next several months. If gold can’t go much higher in the wake of a tanking dollar, then there is something wrong with gold, i.e., something is rotten in Denmark. 😀

        1. Gary Post author

          Seriously folks, quit panicking on every down day. The intermediate cycle still has much further to go.

          If gold gives us a dip, use it to buy or add to positions. Gold is going to at least $1400 during this intermediate cycle, maybe higher.

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