143 thoughts on “TRICKY METALS MARKETS

  1. victor

    Gary, many of your blog readers doesn’t express their gratitude, but for you to know we all are very thankful. Wish you a good health and all the best….

    1. Excelsior

      Agreed victor and well stated. Your insights are appreciated Gary.

      Thing are still just 5 1/2 weeks into this recent Gold impulse leg up (that started on Dec 13th) . It seems quite reasonable to see the 2017 or even the 2016 peaks tested, before the next significant corrective move begins.
      If the US Dollar dips down to the high 80’s it could be the catalyst to send Gold up to test those old highs, and it may surprise both the bears and bulls alike. It will be interesting to see the next 4-6 weeks unfold. Cheers!

  2. x33e

    Peter Brandt
    ‏ @PeterLBrandt
    1h1 hour ago

    42-month highs in commercial long positions in $DX_F, 42-month lows in bullish sentiment (or highs in bearish sentiment) among traders. Time for the greenback to rock and roll.

      1. Gary Post author

        Here’s the real story.

        The COT has been at extreme levels since November. Analysts that didn’t know what they were doing used this same logic in early 2016 to erroneously call the top to the baby bull about 4 months too early. Heck the Blees rating isn’t even up to 90 yet, much less a maximum bullish level of 100.

        Sentiment during a bear market is different than sentiment during a bull market. It takes much deeper bearish levels to turn price around.

        Peter really has no idea what he’s doing.

  3. jacob2

    A believer in rising inflation as a theme for 2018. The demise of BTC and government shutdown should be more rocket fuel for gold. If gold fails to go up on good news gold not ready for prime time.

  4. Christian

    Great Video AND weekend report — This again highlights what I was pointing out in the last blog post. Gold is a sneaky little bugger.. One must (without any doubt) understand the psychology behind the Metals so as to not get lost in the fog.

    The more and the better you understand your dance partner, the more and the better you can ANTICIPATE his or her every move 🙂

  5. jyoung3759

    Gary,

    You keep talking about daily cycles and intermediate cycles. what type of criteria (time frame) make something a daily or an intermediate cycle. Are we talking anything over 80 days in intermediate and under is daily??

    Every cycle analysis I run seems to point to making a low in March before we can actually sustain a move beyond the 1362 and 1378 levels. I do not doubt you Gary, but just reporting what I see. This cycle analysis tool gives an accurate projection about 60-70% of the time.

    BTW, I had the same exact thoughts on the Euro article but of course why would it confirm as gold would not move as high with a gaining currency as it did with a losing one (Dollar) but just thought it was another point to consider.

    1. Norvast

      The FOMC meeting is on 20-21 Mar at which the FED is likely to raise interest rates, in which case there is every chance this date will represent the DCH (daily cycle high) for gold.

      If you want to know something about cycle analysis please read up on the methodology before coming to this forum with questions about daily and weekly cycle times.

      We have just come out of an ICL on 12 Dec and we can expect another in and around 26 weeks from now!

      The early daily cycles out of the ICL/YCL are generally strong.

      Right now the main question is whether the USD hosted a DCL on 02 Jan or is still to host a DCL in it’s DC3. That will dictate whether gold will advance.

      Mind a study of the Swiss franc CHF implies it has just hosted a HCL (half cycle low) and will advance to early Feb. Where it goes gold normally follows!

      1. cazabrujas

        Where did you read about cycle analysis? I have not found many useful books, just the ones by Bressert.

      2. RTTPD

        Norvast —–

        Do you by chance have a graphic handy that shows the gold/Swiss franc correlation?

        Thanks in advance.

  6. Jim Dandy

    This can´t help bitcoin, which is backed by nothing but limited supply, just like every other token out there. As Rick Rule says, the way bitcoin moves it isn´t a currency, it´s a trading token. Once the volatility comes out of it, maybe then it becomes a currency, but that also won´t help those fully ïnvested¨, especially if the volatlity dies down only after chitcoin drops to $2k.

    http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2018/01/rick-rule-finally-a-gold-backed-crypto-currency/

    Like has been noted here several times, new and improved ¨coins¨will be coming out every week, each another nail in the coffin of token chitcoin. I was wondering why Satoshi Nakamoto needs to hide behind an alias, sounds like a great place to put my life savings!

    1. dboz

      I would suggest picking up some GBTC ASAP (the low is more than likely already in now). Going to 5k very soon as BTC hits a new ATH. You can continue to fight it or you can join it. 25k BTC then on to 50k+. Possibly hitting over 120k by end of summer. It is just where young people are putting their money. They understand it. I don’t but decided to put my bias away. Not huge position as it is still a gamble, but one I am happy to take.

      https://i.imgur.com/8MVd4Tx.png

      1. Americano

        Hi dboz.
        It’s well known my hesitation with GBTC due to the premium. I hold actual Bitcoin, but before I transformed my IRA to actual BTC I traded GBTC. I initially got in at $130. It was strictly a trading vehicle.
        But ya know what?
        With the move BTC is going to have this spring + GBTC 90-1 split coming up…..
        I dig your thesis. I would TRY to get physical Bitcoin if I were you because as soon as Etf rumors show again GBTC premium is gonna get slashed…..
        But I get it. You do what you can. Your spidey sense is DEFINITELY on to something.
        The degree to which will be witnessed by EVERYONE this summer but is PLAIN AS DAY right now…..
        From,
        The Mayflower!

        1. roadrunner

          “I would TRY to get physical Bitcoin if I were you”…Physical bitcoin???? it doesn’t exist.

      2. Jim Dandy

        I don´t think you understand it at all, or the pressure you have succumbed to, you sound as if you have joined a cult.

        Bitcoin is already like the US Post Office, old, slow, and expensive. Not only has email killed it, the USPS can´t even deliver packages as good as similar services like UPS. At least the USPS has the backing of the US government, while bitcoin was made by a guy with an alias and is a threat to central banks.

        You guys don´t own anything, other than limited edition digits, and are apparently too young to understand you don´t have a claim on anything. Tokens are nothing, that is why they werent already restricted by securities laws. You don´t own any of the technology (claim on earnings), have no idea who holds the coins (affecting price), you don´t even have the gold painted plastic they print the Chuck E Cheese token on. You only have hope that somebody else will pay up for your token.

        Telling people they better get in before it takes off another 1000% is not an argument, it´s a cheesy sales pitch from a scared person that has already bought in and needs others to believe they same BS they bought into.

        Bottom line, somebody is cashing out for chitcoin to be down 50%, who was it and why would they sell? They aren´t out publicly like the army of noobs saying it´s going to a million, and yet it´s down big in only a month. How much more chitcoin do they have, that is what you should be asking yourself, bc despite the hype it has big selling. Why would anybody with big holdings sell, dont they know what you know, that chitcoin is going to a million?

        With these weak bounces, you are better off selling right now. It´s going to $3. I used to say $6K, until I learned more about it these last few months, so I had to revise my target.

        You should put some links up to where you get your research and targets, so people here can decide if it´s legitimate, or just more drivel from a person that dosen´t understand investing. Other than that, we have heard several times a day about pie in the sky targets that will be reached in a year. No need to chirp about it daily, and advise others to get in behind you.

  7. Jimsee

    lost in most of the discussions I hear is the fact that in *boom* times according to headline employment numbers, wages are not rising *and* we are borrowing 3% of GDP to get 2.5% growth.

    In the 90’s we used to think this would be a death spiral budgetary process if the debt/gdp got over 100% *and* we lost all traction on debt/gdp.

    Police state ‘free markets’ are a marvel to behold.

  8. Jimsee

    it is official imo – we cannot withstand a recession – *ever* again in the current paradigm.

    Let that sink in – 3% of gdp in a failing gdp/debt scenario is apparently *baseline* – and we got TAXCUTS for corporations that have spent decades offshoring *to bring back their loot* earned from the destruction of the middle class.

      1. Jimsee

        Indeed – i used to ‘believe’ in the ‘free market’ – might as well believe in the tooth dairy now.

        The mega corporations have been given EVERY kind of welfare and squeal about hi-taxes,lol.

        Faith in ‘markets and capitalism’ has been destroyed by the likes of Clinton/Bush/Cheney who wantonly use the flag to destroy peoples here and abroad.

        The seeds were sown and fertilzed in WWI – they are 100 year old strong crops now ready for the reaping.

        1. Roy Batty

          What we have now is far from a free market. To increase freedom we need to reduce government, especially central government…. where corporate power resides.

  9. Anthonyo

    Time for Euro to go UP, and USD to go down but not lower than 89.

    Gold rally was hijacked by PPT of stocks…
    Gold rally stalled …
    its day in the sun postponed once again idefitnitely.

  10. Gary Post author

    5 reversals in a row for the dollar. That’s a sign of manipulation. The ECB is trying to prevent the euro from rising.

    Ultimately I think they will fail.

    It would also be easier to move the euro back down if they waited until it hits a resistance zone. Then they would get some help from the market. Trying to turn a market in the middle of nowhere is going to be tough.

        1. Zachery

          i did, you said there will be a high for banks to sell their shares.

          But today gold and silver arent reacting well to government shutdown, which makes me nervous….

          1. RTTPD

            “But today gold and silver arent reacting well to government shutdown, which”

            It’s way too early to get nervous….we haven’t even reached the witching hour yet.

            It might be 3:00 am before the PM’s go into beast mode. 🙂

          2. Americano

            Now is the time for gold Zac.
            US govt shutdown, NK menace etc.
            if the gold dog doesn’t hunt NOW….
            What’s it gonna take?
            Actual nuclear war lol?
            Gold can choose to be like Tom Brady & the Patriots NOW….or can go the way of the Vikings today.
            3rd option that I think is MOST plausible……
            Gold just stays between 1200 & 1400 for years.

          3. rborna

            Zachery, if you are nervous and need more hand holding like most people here including me, consider joining Gary’s subscription where he details more information in his daily reports.

  11. Christian

    Attachment

    Stocks are long overdue for a correction. Let’s see if this HANGING MAN has any legs to stand on 🙂

    1. jyoung3759

      Stocks should head lower here into a 40 day cycle low that should bottom on or around 29 January but then move higher again from there. There certainly overcooked at this point but then again that’s been the case for a long time now; however, with the angle of ascent changing so drastically pull back here would be welcome. Most daily cycle troughs have been shallow with pullbacks that find support generally around the 20 day simple moving average. At this point based on my cycle analysis I wouldn’t expect a significantly deep pull back especially since this is only a 40 day cycle low. However, in my 10 years plus a doing cycle analysis I have realized that while what I have just said is generally true 80-90% of the time it’s not always true and due to the magnitude of the recent rally a sharper decline is possible; however, I would still say probably not all that likely

      1. Christian

        Keep in mind that cycle analysis becomes somewhat useless during a bubble phase, especially during the euphoric phase.

  12. jyoung3759

    Attachment

    Here is a gold cycle analysis that may have merit predicting a low around 01/22-01/25 and then it moves higher out of the DCL to challenge 1262, 1377.50, and then 1400.00. As always do your own due diligence and this is just for informational purposes.

    This analysis is shorter term and comes from a peak and trough analysis modification. Gold is extremely difficult to get a pure cycle analysis on due to manipulation, but this may just prove to be accurate. The cyclical path is not 100% accurate, but for the most part is since the low in 12/2016.

    1. Nada

      Well, I see a change in character in your outlook since Friday.. nice to have a call for a move higher and a move lower.

      First, a hunt for a DCL is not going to complete in 2-3 days. It will be longer and scare the hell out of everyone. Second, a more likely spot for the DCL is FOMC – not a DCH.

      Opinions mind you and only time will reveal the answer.

      1. jyoung3759

        Nada,

        These are not calls. I run analysis and then present it. I have been long gold the whole time. There are different scenarios that can unfold. One is showing a move lower into March for Gold and if that was true then this is the top in Gold. Yesterday I ran a different analysis (both peak and trough) and came up with the current chart. I like to keep the possibilities out there so that way I am nimble enough to not stay in a poor position if it shows I am wrong. There isn’t a soul that knows for sure which way things are going. Gary is pretty sound because he has reasons behind his move predictions and incorporates that with his technical analysis very well. He has a very good understanding in general about how things interrelate and will usually be fairly accurate in his calls but he is not right all the time nor does he claim to be. He tries to convey the attitude you need to have to be successful, but few listen. Like I said previously trying to give most investors advice is like trying to give a dead person medication. Good luck to all in your positions and perspectives but please try and have open minds.

        So if you take my money where my mouth is I am long gold and will stop out at any close below 1324.00.

        1. Nada

          I do have an open mind and have no doubts that gold can march higher. I am short because of daily cycle duration and so far I have a little cushion since I was 1 day from the current top. My position is small so emotions are not a factor.

          I think we are all ready for gold to show us her hand, but she seems to be doing what she does best – annoying everyone 🙂

          Good luck in your trades. I am bullish in gold too, but I also like to play the short side into the daily cycle lows.

  13. carlvan

    After watching the video from Gary, I am even more convinced that “manipulation” or whatever forces will trap bulls today and/or tomorrow: while everybody expects gold to rise on the gov shutdown event, “they” might send god down into the 1310’s, and GDX to 23. As I expected already Friday, this would just be normal elliott wave retracement of the big impulse wave from Dec 13:
    http://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8158/TT6bKD.png.

  14. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    I see a lot of traders anxious about a first daily cycle. I saw that same emotion in July and August, and again during the half cycle low earlier this month. It caused traders to miss the next leg up.

    6 weeks into the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle is the time to control anxiety. Don’t worry so much about a first daily cycle. The larger intermediate cycle isn’t going to top this early, and I even have my doubts that the daily cycle is going to top here. The euro is holding above major support and the dollar is holding below major resistance. (Plus the euro is forming a flag which is usually a continuation pattern.) I doubt those zones are going to break no matter how much intervention the ECB throws at the currency markets. They are going to need help to turn the euro back down. For the interventions to work they need to occur at a major resistance zone so they can get some help from the market.

    The next major resistance zone in the euro is the bear market trend line around 1.27.

  15. Bob

    Some selected implications as a result of US Gov.t shutdown from this article: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-shutdown-commodities-factbox/factbox-effect-on-commodities-markets-due-to-u-s-government-shutdown-idUSKBN1FB0I4?il=0

    Commodities markets should trade normally on Monday even though key regulators, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), will be operating with skeleton crews due to the U.S. government shutdown.

    Private exchange operators are generally not affected, but weekly economic reports from the U.S. Energy Department and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), key for traders, have in the past been delayed until the government re-opens. (I presume other US Data announcements will be impacted also)

    FINANCIAL OVERSIGHT: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said it would have to furlough 95 percent of employees immediately. An agency spokeswoman said the derivatives regulator could, however, call in additional staff in the event of a financial market emergency.

    The 2013 shutdown caused weekly figures on positions in options and futures to be delayed until after the government reopened. (COT reports)

  16. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Is there some reason you are overlooking the left translated “intermediate” cycle in gold, and the massively left translated yearly cycle in miners?

    Do they suddenly not count for some secret subjective reason?

    1. Gary Post author

      Attachment

      I’m not sure I know what you are talking about.

      Gold is the cyclical driver of the precious metals sector, not miners. The miners were heavily impacted by the rebalancing last year.

      1. vin

        “I’m not sure I know what you are talking about.”

        You are not the only one. Most of us don’t have a clue of what he babbles about. At least this one was a short babbling.

      1. vin

        Nada, that is only a part of the matter. His attitude is insulting. His arrogance is beyond description. And, he has rarely, if ever made a comment to given an insight or provide a direction while his posts in general are made up of thousands of “words”.

        1. Nada

          Well I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. I know he enjoys stirring the pot time to time but maybe if he charts the idea he is presenting, then we can all start to understand zkotpen.

        2. Christian

          No offence Vin, but I don’t think you add much value to this blog either other than the occasional snarky comment.

          When was the last time you posted a chart with some sort of analysis?

          The answer is — Nada, as in ZILSH!

          1. vin

            Thanks Christian and I do not disagree with you. But, here is something to note:

            1. I have pointed out that I like INDL and LABU and brought this to the attention of the readers on consistent basis. AND BOTH HAVE DONE EXTREEEEMLY WELL. I feel that they will keep on doing well for many months to come.

            2. But, then I fully agree with you that I am not an expert, vulgar or here to show off like you do. Nor do I use absolutely useless jargon like you do.

            3. I come here to learn and share whatever little I know.

            4. If I were an all knowing ^%&% like you I would never waste my time at this site.

            5. But, I guess you come here to boost your ego which probably is crushed by the real world.

            I hope you are not offended for my showing you the mirror.

            Amen!

    1. Nada

      Nice Job Gary. I assume this was option trades? What was the time frame for the percentage gain? Last question, is this based upon metals/SM trades or both?

      1. Gary Post author

        It was an options trade taken in early Oct. based on the expectation the bubble would start to accelerate the end of 2017 and into 2018.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Get your alt tokens, they aren´t making any more of them! 🙂

      Bitcoin dosen´t even do what the new coins do, which is still nothing but at least the founders have some technology they might make money from one day. Any one of the tokens with a fixed supply, that is all of them, can do what bitcoin does and better, store of value, faster transaction times, and decentralized to take out the central banks.

      Owning tokens or ¨coins¨is owning a novelty item, just like buying an apple computer dosen´t mean you then get a piece of Apple´s profits. You are just hoping another sucker will come in and buy your computer for more than you paid. Bitclowns are customers of the business, not owners.

  17. Gary Post author

    This is what long basing patterns do. They kill sentiment making investors think price will never move. Except long basing patterns often produce the strongest rallies. So it’s almost always a huge mistake to give up on an asset that is experiencing a basing pattern. That’s usually where the next big trending move will appear.

    Then once it does all those traders that gave up hope because of frustration when the rally didn’t come fast enough for them end up having to chase. That’s what makes the move so powerful.

    The rally out of the ICL was extremely powerful yet many traders insist on looking for something negative to focus on. Instead I think one should try to find reasons to be bullish just in case this basing pattern is about to produce a very powerful rally.

    1. Christian

      Agree — Anybody trying to short Gold at this juncture is asking to lose YET another Burrito, Lol!

      You know who you are 🙂

      1. Nada

        Well my short is green in gold. How is your short doing in oil? 🙂 All jokes aside, I am very interested in how this daily cycle will play out (stretched vs a more normal duration).

        So far we have a cycle that has lasted 27 trading days or 41 calendar days. The high was hosted on the day 34 or the 22nd trading day. I have 3 contracts and they expire in Mid march, we all know a DCL is coming much sooner. Either way, I only plan to add to my short position after a close below 10ma. I will stop out if we make a new high.

        1. Christian

          I’m not worried about OIL because I understand the importance of PATIENCE and position sizing. Your thinking is sometimes too linear.

          Remember, trading is all about measuring RISK and right now OIL SHORT has a higher probability and less risk involved than trying to SHORT GOLD in its first DC.

          Gold can easily turn around and nip you in the butt at this juncture :/

    2. Autobahn

      As recommended by you I paid zero attention to gold all year. Sometimes I would look see it still consolidating….ok good bye see you in a month.
      I was busy with stocks.
      I don’t have a feeling described by Gary above. Actually I feel pretty bullish about gold to me it looks like it might break out this time.
      Lesson learned!
      Thank you G

  18. zkotpen

    LeilaniFarms,

    “Whoa! Nice work Gary! Impressive to say the least.”

    Watch out — if Gary makes a quick turn, your neck will snap!

    1. LeilaniFarms

      Not harlyd zkotpen, go check the threads back on 12/12.

      I got in JNUG at 12.67 using my own technical analysis for precious metals and miners. You really think I am going to lose money at this point? lmao 🙂

  19. zkotpen

    Nada,

    “Well I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. I know he enjoys stirring the pot time to time but maybe if he charts the idea he is presenting, then we can all start to understand zkotpen.”

    There was a time not so long ago when I would have eagerly done so.

    But given the massive decline in the quality of posts here since last summer, and their unfortunate change in character to something populist, posting a chart that I would have gladly shared less than a year ago strikes me as a no-win, must-lose scenario.

    Think about it for a minute — or even a few seconds… as an old friend used to say: Why bodder? There is very little expectation of understanding, though one would cherish the thought of it…

    1. zkotpen

      jake,

      “You couldn’t identify an uptrend if it hit you in the arse.”

      Why the persistent rudeness and obnoxiousness?

      I have even thanked you more than once for that excellent post you made.

      I really enjoy that album — I listen to it at least monthly, usually a few times per month. It has positive value for me, and I was unaware of it before you pointed it out.

      Don’t understand why you feel the need to constantly go on the offensive?

    2. Nada

      Zkotpen – I can understand some of your frustration. However, if you want to change the character of posts, then lead by example. Ignore the comments and post a chart with your idea and let the market be the judge. I welcome your analysis and opinions and I am certainly not going to be critical if the viewpoint doesn’t play out.

    3. zkotpen

      … and just to clarify, when I say there is little expectation of understanding, I’m not judging anybody’s intellect, rather, I’m talking about Elvis Costello type understanding:

      “What’s so funny ’bout peace, love, and understanding?”

      Zero expectation of that, in this space,
      though I’m sure plenty of people understand the charts intellectually.

  20. primetime

    FOREWARNING: As usual this post will contain useless information!

    The board is strung really tight today, I think something big is about to happen. Maybe something positive from JJHARMAN would help soothe everyone.

        1. Christian

          That AND snarky comments is what gets people going :/ Myself included.

          That’s why I left this blog for a while. Maybe I should just hang out with the subs and stay out of trouble, Lol!

  21. Goild

    UVXY is getting nicer.
    Who has the guts to plunge in?

    I am done for today 🙂
    Have a nice afternoon.

    And yes Gary, the Nasdaq is pumping up to 10,000…
    Awesome call.
    We shall see.

    1. vin

      I like LABU. I feel that if Gary’s prediction of 10k to 20k on nasdaq should materialize then labu should really shine. Another oneI like is indl. Any opinion on indl?

    2. rborna

      Congrats on LABU. If one bought a year ago, it has more than 3x. I missed a big opportunity getting scared out of it with some saying Trump will screw with drug prices. He hasn’t done anything like that.

    3. Bluebellkid

      That’s not a cup shaped base LABU is “breaking out” from today is it? Naw, cant be patterns don’t exist nor or they useful. What’s ironic is that IBD has an add on subscription for Premium Charts called Pattern Recognition software – around $15/month.

      1. Gary Post author

        The problem I’ve always had with patterns is for ever one that works, 5 more fail or morph into something else. In real time it’s hard to make money trading chart patterns.

        1. Bluebellkid

          And that is why you have to know how to analyze them. Just as your cycles have criteria they must meet so do chart patterns. Here is a list of things to look for in a cup:

          The Classic Stock pattern is the Cup with Handle. This pattern gives the best chance for great gains. The characteristics of Cup with Handle bases are:
          • The minimum length for a sound cup with handle or double bottom base is 7 weeks. They usually last 3-6 months, but can stretch longer than a year.
          • Initial losses shape the left side of the cup. Good stocks can shed 20-50% during this correction. This move will often coincide with a market downturn. During severe Bear Markets a stock can pull back 60%, but anything more than that is too much to overcome.
          • Bases begin the first week the stock closes lower after a prior uptrend.
          • When it reaches the bottom of the base the volume should slow and price action should turn tight. Down volume on the left or down side of cup should not be higher than up volume on the right or up side of the cup.
          • Stock will trend upward forming the right side and ideally the volume picks up. Ideally you want to see more up weeks vs down weeks. When it gets within 5-15% of its high it should slant down on thin volume forming the handle. It should trade in a fairly tight range.
          • The stock should drop no more than 15% in its handle and midpoint of handle should be in the upper half of the base. Handle must take a minimum of a week to form. Bases that last over a year can have handle’s that last weeks. Generally you like to see an Acc/Dist rating of “C” or better and also and Up/Down volume ratio of 1.0 or better.
          • Handles work best when they trade in a tight range. (Handles that wedge higher on low volume signal a weak demand and trouble ahead.) Handles should be above the 200 DMA.
          • Breakouts come when the stock surpasses its pivot point. The pivot point is the high point of the handle plus 10 cents. The volume should be at least 50% above average for large caps and even more for small caps (up to double, triple and even more).
          • The Relative Strength line should confirm breakouts – If RS line hits new high ground first ahead of breakout that is even better. The RS line measures the stock against the S & P 500 and the RS number compares the stock against all other stocks.
          • After breaking out a stock can move 20% or more in the first 3 weeks. If this happens, be patient and hold onto stock at least 8 weeks to see what develops. This will entail sitting thru 1 or more pullbacks or short term corrections due to the big move up so fast.
          • If the stock moves 25% or more in a short period you may want to take profits.
          • Watch how far a stock rises above the 50 DMA. If a stock rises 51% above the 50 DMA be prepared for a correction (small and midcaps). 79% higher or more virtually assures a decline. A large cap stock of at least $7 billion will have a lower maximum % above the 50 DMA.
          • The best winning stocks seldom got more than 23% above their 10 DMA.
          • PE Ratios have nothing to do with the timing of a stock purchase. It can however help forecast how far a stock can rise. The average PE expansion from pivot to peak is 120-130%. To project a price target multiply a stock’s PE at breakout by 2.3 then by next full years EPS estimate.
          One thing to remember is that 3 out of 4 stocks will do what the overall markets are doing.

    1. Nada

      Not “here”. I believe he said he has been in for weeks, adding to his position. For the record, I am not saying shorting oil is a bad idea. To each their own.

      1. Christian

        I never said ‘weeks’.. Not sure where you got that from brother. I told you I bought some OILD when OIL reversed on the 11th 🙂

          1. Christian

            I guess I was thinking more in terms of ‘TRADING DAYS’ which equates to 8 days in total but sure.. if you wanna throw in a couple of weekends in there to spice it up then go for it! Regardless.. Think LOW RISK HIGH REWARD..!

            btw.. You should sign up! It would be good for you and I don’t mean that in a condescending tone 🙂

    2. Christian

      Smart move THC..!

      Folks, The only way to make CONSISTENT money in this business is to take away the temptation to gamble.

      You should only focus on low risk/high reward type of trades.. especially when Sentiment has reached an extreme.

      1. victor

        shorting oil with 2x at 63.27, but don’t expect it to go more then 58$. Saudis want assurance to show OPEC members that price level to stay for 2018th.

  22. richie67

    Gary,

    Tim “CyclesMan” Wood says that gold should ideally make another low before starting a new bull market.
    He’s looking at all bear markets gold has gone through dating back to the 1800’s. In all previous bear markets gold has gone through 9 distinct cycles and if history doesn’t repeat itself (now) it will be the first time ever it has happened. What are your thoughts on this? This time it is different?

    1. Gary Post author

      Tim hasn’t been close on gold in a long time and he’s missed the stock market even worse. I don’t think you want to pay too much attention to him.

      1. m0ntana

        Sold all my metals positions, Bob Moriarty was correct last week now looking back. Don’t like action of miners here. Will come back in spring if there’s a sharp sell off in PM.. I have a feeling 2018 is going to be choppy and Doc on KER agrees.
        25 percent invested in nasdaq and remaining in Cash.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’m pretty sure you are going to talk yourself out of your position for fear of a meaningless DCL and then miss the next leg up.

          First DCL’s usually turn back up quickly once the 5 day RSI hits oversold, plus I’m not even convinced this is the beginning of a DCL. The euro is flagging and those are usually continuation patterns.

          1. m0ntana

            Time will tell Gman. 2018 proved to be a good year so far with metals and I didn’t want to risk giving it back. Many analysts are of same opinions as yours with PM and I take that as a contrarian signal..

          2. Gary Post author

            Monitor real sentiment. Don’t try to guess at it by what a couple of analysts are saying.

            Intermediate sentiment in gold is neutral as is silver. The COT’s are not bearish yet. Contrarian signals only work at extremes.

            There’s no need to panic this early in an intermediate cycle.

  23. jyoung3759

    That last comment is key. Your talking yourself into something rather then trading actual price movement and fairly stable known cycle quantification.

  24. victor

    the only explanation to myself that you guys don’t want to explore cannabis is your unvillinnes to change your view on something new, or maybe it’s scares you…, that’s strange as here many people are younger than me (60yr)
    Just for you to see: – my 1st purchase end of Nov. gave me +78.11% as of this minute ($4,908.11)
    2nd – in December 46.9% at the moment
    3rd is 10+ % but amount is big.
    Question. What are you waiting for? Legalization in Canada coming in July 2018, it seems to me quite safe to buy it for at least of couple of month, if you guys in doubt – put small amount…
    but like M0ntana said “75% in cash” why?
    please uderstand I’m not pumping anything , I just want you to smile on this blog ,…

    1. primetime

      I have recently willed all my pm holdings to my great, great, great grandchildren. And that was an optimistic play.

    2. Nada

      Afternoon jacob2. Have you used this miner a lot in the past as an indicator? It seems picking 1 miners would be hard to get an accurate read.

      1. vin

        Nada, franco nevada is not really a miner.

        It is an incredible model. If one expects PM to go higher one would be well advised to study this corporation.

    3. Jim Dandy

      I noticed that yesterday as well with FNV, and it isn´t a positive sign. I am not making any changes on just one observation but it´s something to keep an eye on. The fact that RGLD (another streamer) recently looked like it was breaking down in the same manner, only to bounce and regain it´s trend is a positive. I was wondering if perhaps it is the stage we aer at in the metals bull that affected the two biggest streamers, perhaps since they do better than conventional miners in a metals bear market, perhaps the conventional miners are now due to outperform?

      I don´t know the answer, but am not overly concerned unless FNV starts to really crap out on no company specific news. I remain very long miners (with nicely positive marks) and will stay that way at least as long as Gary remains confident of the cycles, maybe longer.

  25. Christian

    GOLD and the EURO holding strong above the 10DMA and the BUCK consolidating quietly just before the next leg down.

    Gamblers — You’ve been warned 🙂

    1. Nada

      Christian, do you just repeat what Gary says? It seems you like doing that on both the blog and sub side 😛

      But I like to gamble and with my position, I will sleep like a baby no matter what gold does.

      1. Christian

        I mean It’s hard to say anything else when the obvious is staring at you in the face but I guess I could play cowboy like you and SHORT GOLD when common sense is telling you not to 🙂

        Are you still subbing over at Gold Predict?

        1. Nada

          Does goldpredict have forums? To answer your question, no I stopped looking at his updates. I think my subscription runs for another 6 months or so, but I have not found any value in his analysis. He missed several ICLs and then FOMO makes him chase as the turn is about to occur.

          I guess you are right, that money would probably have been better spent on SMT. I have no doubts that gold can push higher, but with my position size, instead of closing, I will most likely add to my short on the next swing high.

          1. Christian

            That’s true but I find that it’s important to follow 2 or 3 other Analysts so as to remain objective and not get stuck in tunnel vision.

            Yes! Position Size is uber important 🙂

  26. Jim Dandy

    Didn´t do any adding today, hope to this week if we can go a little lower or sideways a few more days in miners. I would also be interested in some maryjane stocks if they can pull back some more. Blockchain stocks gave the tell today, crypto tokens look to be heading a lot lower this week.

    I´m also going to have to pay more attention to biotech, haven´t been involved in this rally or the group for some time, but appreciate how it smashed into new highs.

  27. dboz

    To DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON. Markets are never going down again.

    NFLX -524m cash flow, 30+ p/e, then 1.45m new subs at $12 per mo so a $17.4m increase in rev (just 1/4 of 1% of negative cash) and the valuation goes up 10b/10%?!

    1. dboz

      expecting 3-4 BILLION loss, 8.5m subs added in the fourth quarter, so 75% quarterly sub drop, upped budget,so negative cash flow, yep good for a 10% market cap bump. High ho to the moooooooooooon.

  28. dboz

    Got smoked on DRIP today. JDST looking good and ready to run. Sick of the markets overall. Just stupid silly. Pass an 8 day extension………………………..MARKETS TO DAAAAAAAAAAA MOOOOOOOOOOOON.

    Still waiting on GBTC to react to the 91:1 split.

  29. JJHarmen

    The SM is going nuts and still GDX is going no where. Glad I didn’t spend my whole day watching.

    1. trendyfollower

      Good mini-analysis. Stay long and strong. Gary’s talking to us with a tongue of angels to keep our positions. I hope people listen.

    2. RTTPD

      Looks good Jyoung. I haven’t even given a second in thought about seriously selling my five Silver miners and two gold miners. HodL!

  30. Bv

    Again, miners not reacting much this side of the pond despite the rise in gold. I’m guessing the price of gold hasn’t moved much in sterling terms?

Comments are closed.