391 thoughts on “Dollar: multi-year bear Gold: multi-year bull”

  1. Goild

    Gary, thank you for the dollar discussion.
    I like the your pointing at the lower trend line as a likely next target.
    The monthly/weekly candles suggest a mostly flat dollar for the next week/month.

    1. Americano

      Hello Gmoney. Thanks for your Bitcoin video the other day. My forecast is $25K by June & $50K EOY.
      It’s always darkest before dawn & when each milestone is passed……
      I am gonna get drunker than 10 Indians.
      Appreciate your thoughtful analysis .

      1. GMoney

        Americano: The Bitcoin bubble is over – it was a textbook parabolic blow-off & crash. If you want to be a Bag Holder then go ahead and ignore history and keep holding your Bitcrash (oh, I mean Bitcoin)

        1. ted

          The BitCoin bull is definitely NOT over. In fact, this week may be the buying opportunity for of a decade!

          2. vin

            Hi ted. Missed you.

            Are you sure that bitcoin will do well? At present it doesn’t look good at all.

            Finally, your call on miners happened. What is you take on miners now? And, of-course SM? SM did terribly bad last week. And, you were one of the few to predict the top.

        2. Americano

          Thanks Gmoney.
          When Dennis Gartman of CNBC finally keels over from either old age or being – always wrong- you’d be well suited as the replacement given your “conventional wisdom” hot takes.

          2. Anthonyo

            Americano,
            True words and to the point to the truly trite posts by the …..would-be Denis Fartman of these pages. lol.

        1. roadrunner

          usually like your stuff Surf, but sorry there are only imaginary cycles on an imaginary scheme,

          1. Surf City

            Roadrunner, Remember that Cycles are all about human psychology that is reflected via Investor Sentiment. Thus BitCoin most definitely has a 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle just like everything else (quite easy to see in the chart). Its also has a shorter term Daily Cycle also evident in the charts.

  3. jacob2

    Timing?

    Agree about the long term dollar bear. However, last week after looking at 2 weekly charts UUP and DUST hedged my miners. Sold all my oil stocks.

    Both UUP and DUST looked ready for counter trend rallies … they did.

    UUP: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78820361211

    DUST: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p22973042992

    Think we’re are in for a rough spring for both commodities and the SM. A short covering rally in the SM, no new high followed by … return of fear. Sentiment in everything reset. Much better 2nd half 18.

    Could be wrong but that’s the game plan.

  4. didier

    The resistances in the currencys as pointed out in your video, it’s a strange thing they matter. Currencies follow central bank manipulations and fundamentals. Why should they follow patterns on charts. Strange.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would argue there’s no such thing as fundamentals in currencies. They are like grains of sand on a beach, Infinate and easily created at will.

      1. didier

        Ok, let’s throw out fundamentals: currencies float on central bank actions. But could you explain why they react to those resistance lines? You have maybe to admit it’s a little bit strange. In gold the same happens but as you say goldcharts are painted so it’s easier to understand. Gold is also a much smaller market.

        The Ciovacco video is indeed informative, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQm4yXtg7CQ
        I guess your trading approach is much more active. You’re less buy$hold. 10 years of buy$hold is very boring.

  6. Surf City

    Here is an update on Interest Rates and Bonds which many pundits are now saying why the Stock Market sold off hard last week. I am still bullish on Stocks after the next ICL but at some point, rising rates may begin to take its toll on Stocks. Longer term, I am very Bearish on Bond prices due to rising interest rates that I expect to continue based on the 60 Year Interest Rate SuperCycle.

    https://surfcity.co/2018/02/04/bond-intermediate-cycle-update-3/

  7. Bob

    Gary, any thoughts as to when we are likely to break 185 in QQQ. We gained $15 in the first month of the parabola, so I would calculate that even with a constant rate of increase, we should hit 185 by the end of February. Something better if the parabola is in play and we get the effects of an increasing rate of change. I guess what I’m looking for is do you think we will at least observe a constant increase through February to 185 at the end of the month, in spite of the current correction?

      1. Bob

        lol, ty 🙂 The other rationale for projection may be to apply the constant rate to the new low of the ICL and then pray for parabolic force. I know you’re not big on crystal balls but saw you thinking about 10,000 so thought I’d try to get some thoughts toward reaching our initial strike in the Quest.

  8. Surf City

    Has the Gold Cycle topped?

    Only in the short term and I think, based on the Time and Price action I am seeing, it is very likely we will see a Daily or Trading Cycle Low next week.

    Here are a couple of charts: The 1st is an 8 year Gold chart that sure looks very bullish to me. After the next Daily or Trading Cycle low (next week?) we should be off to the races, IMO.

    1. zbigkid

      Of course gold has peaked. So have mining stocks. Both will plummet a LOT now, before US stocks peak. And go down further when the stock market crumbles. People always think gold is going to bail them out at the wrong time.

        1. jacob2

          Optimistic about gold LT but really… February? The PM market not recently known for instant gratification. Buy the end of July seldom misses.

        2. RTTPD

          Surf —–

          I wouldn’t bet against you here….you and Gary have nailed many calls lately.

          I am wondering if you could throw out your opinion as to why many miners are detatched from Gold’s recent uptrend?

          1. Surf City

            RTTPD, Not sure which ones you are specifically talking about but in general, the Miners are a leveraged play against Gold. So they typically outperform it in cycle uptrends and get hit harder in cycle downtrends. A number of miners have been hit also been harder in the last couple of months due to disappointing drill results (e.g. PVG and Novo).

  9. Surf City

    Here is the second chart, showing the 18+ year Gold Price Channel I am tracking along with Gold’s 4 Year Cycle Lows.

    Sure looks bullish to me as that is potentially one huge Bull Flag that is breaking out. 😉

    1. Gary Post author

      My preferred scenario is for a bounce and then a second leg down to the bull channel trade line.

      But we could just complete the move early this week and be done with it.

      Don’t forget the Humphrey Hawkins address is next week (I think that’s correct). The Fed will want the market turning back up ahead of that address to congress..

      1. Robert

        I started buying some SPY July 305 call options on Friday. Im thinking we can for sure hit 300 by then or could the market just churn a few months before the next strong push?

      2. trendyfollower

        A lower low at any time, even tomorrow, will make for a much smoother and less risky swing low. I’ll use that to put leverage back on the SM.

    1. cazabrujas

      Doesn’t matter what happens tomorrow. 10K in the Nasdaq composite will be a piece of cake, 20K isn’t out of the question

        1. cazabrujas

          FYI, the “chant” started many months ago, and if you had followed Gary’s advice, you would be sitting on a ton of profits and these corrections would be easily bearable.

          1. victor

            exactly, I still don’t get it, a trader with much more experience, making real money on Quest portfolio, eagerly share his knowledge on the blog …., still people trying to invent something their own instead of following?!

          2. victor

            I would say traders with a less than 4-5 yrs experience should not “swim” alone in that market ocean if they don’t want to lose their account. If more than 100k involved then a subscription is a must.
            I’ve been subscriber for a year, it worth it. It just doesn’t work for me as I’m doing at least 5-15 trades per day, and it doesn’t matter market down or up, down is better though.
            Day trading is tough, require super concentration and fast decisions, a bit hesitation and trade is gone. To be certain in a trade requires many month of learning the stock , it behavior in particular day time, up to a minutes. Goild understands me for sure…

  14. Goild

    The FED has no head and likely they do not know what to do next.
    We might have free markets for a while.
    Volatility in the SM is likely back.

  15. Anthonyo

    Counter Point:

    The Fed and Big Banks Colluding against Trump?

    After Yellen was FIRED by Trump, the remnants of Fed Democrats are trying to ruin the game by Hiking rates higher and faster than before….it is clearly causing stocks and gold to fall…………….

    They have Yellen coming out yesterday saying stock valuations and Real Estate are too High………….notice before she was fired by Trump, all was FINE and DANDY…it’s only NOW 2 weeks after she got fired that Valuations are HIGH suddenly!

    If they succeed and actually Deliver rate hikes and fast regular intervals they could kill stock market and economy, handing Trump a big defeat in mid-term elections in November 2018.

    Gold will also be a victim. So after 1500 (IF it ever gets to 1500 in year 2018), Im not sure what is going to happen or even IF they even allow gold to reach 1500 this year at all.

    Also, we should all lower our expectations of gold’s peak price later on.
    I think given crypto-currencies and new plan by Fed and big banks to hike rates to hurt Trump, gold will be lucky if it reaches old high $1923 and perhaps (big maybe) peak at $2000-$2500.

    1. Anthonyo

      ……They are sure trying…
      Where is the PPT last week, Nick? 1200 point drop in the Dow in 1 week and PPT was nowhere to be found? Why?
      Think about it.

      Also think about the FACT that the first day of the SELL OFF was on Tuesday right ahead of Trump’s State of the Union address.

    2. Jim Dandy

      Crypto tokens are a joke, they have no intrinsic value, are not a business generating income, nor is supply limited ( the number of options and competing tokens is actually exploding). As far as being a currency, bitclowns ïnvestors¨are speculating on higher prices and want the huge upside volatility to get rich quick, so it tokens ever do stabilize, it will suck all the bitclowns out of the market as they look for the next bubble to chase, leaving prices stable but at much lower levels. Anybody worried about tokens competing with gold should be far more worried about new tokens coming out each week competing with their tokens, as they are more direct competition. So if the question is gold vs tokens, it would seem much harder to pick the correct token than the metal which has intrinsic and historical value, and even cryptos coming out with gold backing them. It isn´t the other way around, we don´t here of anybody´s plan to back gold with crypto.

      I agree that tokens will dent gold´s demand just like they dent demand for stocks or any asset class, but that dosen´t mean tokens are the place to be, and which token? At least with metals you have 5 choices (or less if you only consider precious metals). Tokens will not suck up much demand that used to go for gold, but I do think gold will take some demand from tokens. Even in the speculative bubble that just popped, token demand didn´t drive gold lower.
      Watch what happens when bitclowns finally realize that if their tokens were actually the new world reserve currency like they dream about, it would be stable, and thus have little upside. It would be the equivalent of jumping up and down bc invested in dollars, which we don´t see anybody doing. What other value or use is there? Maybe some of them will be of some use in the future, but it will be long after everybody quits talking about them. For now, the spectacular bubble is being followed by a spectacular crash, just like all parabolas. Let´s see how many bitcowns want anything to do with tokens, once they bottom out and go sideways for 4 or 5 years, possibly then the tokens will offer some competition for gold.

      Looking at the charts of the tokens, right about now I imagine lots of ïnvestors¨are asking themselves what it really is that they own? What is the book value of my tokens?

  16. Goild

    Victor,

    Yes, I understand what you say above.
    Which securities/ETFs do you day trade?
    How are you doing?

  17. Christian

    Well kids, looks like I’ve done it again.. drawn a bunch of lines on a chart — ugh!

    Here’s a little tip to ‘up’ your game when using tools of the technical analysis kind:

    On occasion.. I like to combine daily fib levels with intraday fib levels (4 or 5 hour chart will do just fine) and channel trendlines to find some sort of confluence, which I can then use to place a potential order.

    This works really well when Sentiment as well as the Stochastics/RSI indicator have reached an extreme 🙂

    1. Goild

      Christian,

      Thanks for the tip, but the thought needs to be completed.
      It is clear than when the RSI/STO/Sentiment are at extreme its a signal.
      But what about the fib levels? What would be the signal?

    2. Nada

      Christian, thanks for charting the exact preferred scenario Gary outlined. We were all lost what a bounce and further sell off looked like on a chart, until now.

      1. Christian

        Once again you’re too busy trying to come up with a snarky comment that you missed the point entirely. Starting to think that’s all you’re good at old boy :/

        The chart has nothing to do with Gary’s (or any other analyst for that matter, myself included) preffered scenario.. it’s about finding and using a strong confluence point to potentially plot an entry or exit strategy once Retail Sentiment has reached an extreme.

  18. ARends

    I have found very interesting huge divergence in correlation with GOLD and Bonds from December 2017. Which could mean the outlook of gold in investment of its value as commodity to investment is changing. Demand might outstrip manipulation from this point is now possible
    https://invst.ly/6jcja

  19. Jim Dandy

    Read a couple pages of this bitcoin forum, I think it means we still have a long way to go on the downside, only a couple in the group acknowledge the bear is going to take it lower. All the others are still yapping about 50K being possible (this year, LOL), and some even talking 100K. The fact these clowns haven´t even considered it going under $1K tells me it´s going to get smoked even from these ¨low¨levels. I didn´t see one fundamental point made to why it´s going to 50K, just lots of hopium that it ¨has to go up¨. Notice they aren´t even calling for it to reach only 20K again, which isn´t going to happen, they think 50K in 2018. They still think it will be 2.5x the bubble high, this year!

    Soon, they will be wishing they got out at $7700.

    https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2883108.20

    New bear market lows this morning, keep hope alive!!

  22. Jim Dandy

    Circuit breaker for bitcoin kicked in, LOOK OUT BELOW!

    $6K coming into focus real fast, so much for that $8K support, which only lasted a couple days. Sell Americano, SELL!!!!

    1. Nada

      I suspect the voyage is starting to take its toll. Soon they will turn on each other. I suspect Ted’s sweet young ass will be the first to catch their fancy.

      1. Jim Dandy

        I had forgotten about Teddy. He vaporized faster than anybody here at SMT in the last 10 years, so he has that going for him.

        1. Americano

          Ted is fine. He is here on the Mayflower.
          More rough seas from January, soon to subside.
          Easy to forget Bitcoin went from $5500 – 19,666 in 24 days.
          By comparison, the gold market would need to be measured by metrics more applicable to radio carbon dating & other ways of inferring the age ( or in this case price) of fossils from that era.

  26. Gary Post author

    The bitcoin bag holders are starting to realize they got caught at the top. Now they want to sell, but they can’t bring themselves to do so until they make back at least a little of their losses. So they will keep holding and waiting for a bounce.

    It either won’t come, or it won’t last long enough to let them escape with enough to make it worth selling.

    At this point there is nothing they can do but just hang on and ride the crash all the way to the bottom. Once they’ve lost everything then they will sell at the very bottom.

    That’s when we’ll start hearing the cries for a bail out.

    1. Jim Dandy

      60% off the highs and they can´t even it is a bear market, which take many years to turn back up into a bull.

    3. Jimsee

      wait until some mash that sell button and 2 days later they are still waiting to see what price they got,lol.

  27. chrisG

    Do u know what is stupidity??? People call pigs stupid right? Pigcoins guys. Gary is so right. No need technical analysis on this one. Pig lovers, you think the greatest gangsters on earth, ie… the governments, is going to allow u pigsters, commoners to print your own money??? lol

    1. cazabrujas

      I am bummed that they couldn’t come up with the ETFs. shorting bitcoin would have been a slam dunk. You could see this drop coming a mile away.

      1. Jim Dandy

        GBTC is more overvalued than bitcoin itself, this morning still at a 40% premium. Man, there are some dumb people out there, can´t wait to see that premium leak out.

  29. Goild

    Good day,

    The Bitcoin and SM money must go somewhere.
    A portion will be in gold.
    Two years ago gold was well ahead of the miners before they caught.
    Thus, the final miner undercut might be taking place.
    I loaded 1500 JNUG shares around $14.50.

  30. Gary Post author

    It’s looking good for a bounce today or a short term bottom.

    40% chance this will be the final intermediate bottom.

    60% chance there will be a lower low next week to tag the bull channel trend line on the SPX before the final bottom.

    The unknown is the Humphrey Hawkins address. The Fed may step in and stop the correction prematurely to make sure the market is back at or near the highs for that speech to congress.

  31. GBull33

    I believe we get a bounce to 6800 and then a possible roll over if we are “allowed” to correct. Sorry for the small chart, it’s a screenshot from my mobile.

  32. chrisG

    I sure hope market doesnt behave like early 1997. After rallying a lot, it topped in Jan. Then drop to end march for a 17% correction. From end march, it propelled 50% in few months. But that 17% could kill many

  34. Nada

    As predicted, Dixie confirming the bounce out of ICL with a move above 10ma. The longer gold ignores, more dramatic the drop. Bet.

  35. roadrunner

    ok, so it is buy the dip in bitcoin. i am putting in some buy orders, right above GMoney and Jim Dandy…so right at $0.02 should get filled by the end of the week.

    1. Jim Dandy

      When it goes to zero, we won´t even have anything to hang on the wall! At least we found something that bitcoin is good for, taking suckers´money out of thin air.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Same with miners. If it should happen, he suggests the gains from those levels would be in the 150% range, and only take a year or so to occur.

  37. ras

    Bounce time for fangs and nas. When ripe low hanging fruit dangles from SM tree, it is plucked aggressively by robot programs working overnight. These programs do not care about cycles/sentiment/parabolas. As soon as aapl lost 50 day ma, nas fate was sealed.

  39. Spanky

    GDX:GLD ratio about to make a left translated daily cycle. Miners have been utter trash vs gold this IC. I highly doubt they are going to repeat what they did between Dec. ’15 and Jan. ’16 this time.

    When gold hits its IC high in the next 5-6 weeks, the miners are going to get smashed to new multiyear lows (i doubt we break the 2016 low, but who knows).

    Short the miners on any green day.

  41. Gary Post author

    So far the bounce is happening right on cue. Now we will just have to wait and see if we get a lower low next week, or if this is it for the correction.

  43. Spanky

    Mining stocks….

    gold goes up, mining stocks go down
    gold goes down, mining stocks go down
    stock market goes up, mining stocks go down
    stock market goes down, mining stocks go down

    Same old POS sector it always was.

    1. Spanky

      When, in 10 years? It’s a terrible sector. They had one monster pop for 7 months or so in 2016 and they have been in a bear market ever since. That’s 18 going on 19 months of bear market. Lower lows and lower highs (see $hui, SIL, SILJ).

    2. Nada

      Goild, I am not sure why you are not playing the cycles when it comes to gold. Now is not the time to be buying miners.

      1. Robert

        It looks like gold wants 1320 or less before this cycle bottoms. GDXJ almost giving back all of its move from Dec. Horrible

        1. Spanky

          GDXJ:GLD ratio is for sure going below its December low this daily cycle–that’s a given. It’s a day away at most.

  45. Americano

    “Forgive them Father for they know not what they’ve done”
    But not really. “They” won’t /can’t seize the opportunity.
    “They” chose England over the Mayflower.
    So what do I do? Pray for your deliverance from yourselves?
    Yes. It’s the only right thing to do.
    Bitcoin was this price 2 months ago. Yet England – Stayers are talking about “zero”.
    Seriously?
    So CBOE & CME put this whole futures apparatus together just to dust pound it to zero?
    Let the record show that I choose rationality.
    I choose…..
    The Mayflower !

    1. Jim Dandy

      Biggest bubble of all time, and you didn´t cash out anything, and now are 60% lower, with only hope to hang your hat on. Are you able to at least admit it is a bear market, by anybody´s definition (typically a 20% pullback or more)?

  46. Spanky

    For those who can see it–GCC (unweighted commodity index ETF) monthly chart.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=M&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64262640235&a=575784898&listNum=1

    For all of the dollar’s decline in the last year, commodities haven’t done jack squat. They have been in a very tight consolidation since peaking in mid-2016. The bollinger bands are getting extremely tight. Would be too perfect for the complex to break down from here as the dollar rebounds out of its nosedive. That would certainly create another massive tailwind for the stock market to head to enormous new highs. This is also what the pathetic mining stocks are signaling–another massive leg down in the commodity bear is about to begin.

  48. Nada

    Morning Americano. The mere fact that you are alluding that Ted is fine, is truly upsetting to some.

    This young man was released into your crew’s care and we have not heard from the lad in days. We all know millennial’s are very impressionable and I feel their views of self importance and entitlement will be easily exploited by a crew of.. shall I say, less than savory characters that make up the Mayflower’s rank and file. I hope there is nothing salacious occurring on the high seas my friend. Please have Ted contact us ASAP.

  49. Goild

    Nada, Spanky,

    Yes, the miners look horrible.
    They have been in a channel since 2013.
    It will take a tremendous force to break their support. And very unlikely since gold is pumping up.
    They are close now to the channel bottom.
    Bitcoin, SM and Nasdaq money will flow into gold.
    I do not want to miss the rally and so I got 1500 JNUG shares and will add along the way.
    Here is another great opportunity.
    Let us fine tune it!

  50. Robert

    Gary, another cycle analyst I follow is saying that this drop in the S&P will be more prolonged. He sees the 26WMA as the target which is much lower

  53. Anthonyo

    STOCKS: Big selling pressure resumes early within Wave B bounce…
    We might get Wave C down sooner than expected ….
    OR….
    this could become a bigger correction than just SPX 2700 bull channel tag.

    It looks and feels like a bigger correction is in the cards beyond 38% fib.

    OIL: it seems no matter how much oil goes down it is STILL at around $65 WTF is going on?

    1. Robert

      Yes other cycle analysts are saying this correction in SPY will be bigger and longer so buy the dip may not work this time. It may take weeks

        1. Anthonyo

          Time to have Yellen meet me in my Ready Room for some lashing.
          Dude I love the ferocity of this sell off.

        2. Anthonyo

          So Much for the paltry bounce this AM…

          So to make this sell off Scary but not Terminal…. we are now looking at 50% fib honey babe.

  56. jonsyl

    Gary, you said that the thing to watch for, is continued bullish sentiment with a selloff in the markets as a sign of a topping in the market. Seems to me from all I hear in media and on this site is precisely that reaction with this sell off.
    Perhaps, this is precisely what the sell off represents. An end to the unrelenting market rise of past few months, with an extraordinary pop in January

  57. GMoney

    There is a gigantic amount of leverage in this market. That is why I think a small pullback can scare enough of that leverage out of the market to create a snowball effect.

  60. Spanky

    Another ugly day for miners and silver. More pain coming this week, then I expect some sort of tiny bounce for a day or two before the waterfall decline begins.

  62. Herman

    If we take the time frame since the DCH into consideration, the DCL in gold should be hit somewhere in the next 3 days, right? I therefore am a little doubtful that gold can make it all the way down to 1286. 1317 seems more likely. But, you never know.

    2. Spanky

      I agree. I think DCL hit in the next 3 days. I think the next DC will be left translated for the miners. The bounce after this week will be shorted like crazy. The long gld short gdx pair trade is back in vogue.

  63. Spanky

    SLV’s 200 DMA has crossed below the 600 dma. Last time that happened was late 2012, just before an epic waterfall decline.

  64. carlvan

    Am short 1 NQ contract from 6746; of course, had I known, I would have shorted 2 or 3 but I am happy with what I have. Gary was right with his short bounce but this bounce seemed like hours not days. NQ below 6700 now; will we visit 6600 ?

  66. Anthonyo

    The Fed and mega banks: Make the Sell Off Scary but not terminal.

    Gift to Trump’s new head of the Fed. A Kind of a “In Yo face Trump” for firing Yellen.

    1. Anthonyo

      Gary,

      The breadth and shear ferocity of the sell off tells me we may be going lower than the trend line.

  71. bginvestor

    I took Gary’s $1000 bet!!

    He wins if Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) gets to 10,000 by July, 2018. I get paid if he loses. Winner gets paid immediately (check sent out ) after July 1st 2018 via an escrow officer.

    Oh yeah, its game on!

    Note: this was agreed by email; but wanted to post publicly so you guys can join in on the fun!

    1. Anthonyo

      Mega Banks(Wells Fargo got lashed big time by Trump’s Justice dept) and remnant Big Bank shills of the Fed are giving Trump a good lashing for firing Yellen and also imposing tough penalties on one of their criminal buddies, Wells Fargo.

      So they tied up PPT in the basement for this one.

      It ain’t over yet either.

  73. Gary Post author

    I have to laugh every time we have an ICL. Human nature never changes. These are the single best buying opportunities of the year but almost no one ever takes advantage of them.

    We haven’t even reached the 38% retracement. This hasn’t even reached the “mild” correction level yet.

    1. Gary Post author

      Sentiment should be coming down nicely. By the time we get to the trend line sentiment should be bearish and we’ll have the fuel for the next leg up.

    2. Anthonyo

      CUTE chart, Gary.

      Time to check the 50% fib level though.

      This thing has no brakes and is just gaining momentum on the downside.

      It’s the unsettled “business” with Trump by Fed shills and mega banks throwing a Hissy Fit at him with this,……..It’s BUSINESS nothing personal.
      The timing of the sell off is political and where is the PPT??
      You dig?

  74. Nada

    Christian’s last tranche, from his hard work on the streets of Toronto is paying off this afternoon. Smart as a whip that one.

    1. Christian

      I guess the only thing Nada is good for is snark, useless market commentary, and Money Flows update (my fav). Thank you Nada for your insightful contribution; keep it coming old boy 🙂

      1. Christian

        Relax Anthonyo.. I’ve been around for 5 years and remember you from the good old days when I use to post under a different handle. I don’t remember you ever getting so worked up over nothing!!

  75. Jim Dandy

    Imaginary coins could be bought for just $6900 a few minutes ago. Right now the bitclowns are in shock, so not yet feeling the full gravity of their mistake, but the next two months of slow, grinding lower should take the starch out of them, as chitcoins trade below $1400.

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes this is another one that I tried and tried to warn people to control greed and take the profits during the mania with price stretched 240% above the 200 DMA.

      No one listened to me here either.

      1. Gary Post author

        What the hell are you talking about? We bought way back in August. I’ve been trying to get people to buy for over 5 months. I’ve been warning people we were going to enter a vertical market.

        We have such a huge cushion that we can easily ride out even a normal ICL.

        Hell and even if someone waited 5 months before they listened to me we are very late in the cycle so the correction is going to be over soon. And the next cycle should be even more aggressive than this one.

        We are going to be at least at 10,000 by July and probably earlier.

  76. Gary Post author

    I want to see where the put call ratio is today. This may not turn out to be a three wave decline. We may just drop into the bottom in one push.

    The NYMO should be well below -100 after today.

    4 weeks from now I’ll be saying “i told you so” just like I always do during one of these ICL’s.

    Yet almost no one ever figures it out no matter how many times I call these. It’s because most people are unable to control their emotions and think logically during corrections.

    1. Robert

      Maybe u will be right but you were getting too cocky and said that the correction may not get this far. Ppl started buying way too early based on ur call and are now underwater. Another cycle analyst I follow say that this correction could be deep and last a longer time

      1. cazabrujas

        What a load of BS, Robert. As usual, you only half-read what Gary posts and end up losing money for it.

  77. Anthonyo

    OIL: What are you doings till above $60???
    MBS of Saudi may not be able to hold you up this time, Oil.

    1. Christian

      Calmate Anthonyo! OIL is a cranky old girl and needs a little bit of extra time to get where she’s going 🙂

      This is nothing new.

      1. Anthonyo

        Oil has no business floating around over $60, heck $55 and you know it.

        It was only Saudis pushing it up where it was and is now.
        I like to see how they handle it this time.

        $55 is a given $49 is the actual fair price.

        1. Christian

          Fundamentals are mostly a time filler. There is always a correction no matter what, even in a strong trending Market and yes, even with OIL.

          PATIENCE is the name of the game and most ‘wannabe’ traders don’t have it because they want instant gratification.

          If you want instant gratification I recommend the Casinos in Vegas, Haha! The Mai Tais are on special 🙂

          1. Anthonyo

            Preaching to the Choir. Patience is my first name.
            It doe snot change the fact that Oil has been artificially buoyed though by Saudis.
            I suggest some time spent on geopolitical events as well.

          2. Christian

            Like I said.. There is always a CORRECTION regardless of geopolitical events and/or what the Saudis had for breakfast.

            Study the chart and you’ll see exactly what I mean my friend 🙂

          2. Nada

            Christian, my advice is to take some time while in your “epitome of calm” and try to understand why your constant egotism rubs 60% of the blog the wrong way. Most of the time you parrot everything Gary says or does and try to pass it along as your special tidbits.

            We all know the story of how you used to lose your shit to Gary and he finally taught you a little so you would stop pissing your pants.

  80. Jim Dandy

    It dosen´t matter what you are invested in, when you start feeling and acting like this bitclown, take some money off the table. This guy was dancing just one week before his bitconnect ¨coins¨ went from over $400 to $3 bucks. LOL!!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKO6IChjojI

    In other news, chitcoin is now loaded for another plunge lower, as the bounces now only last 10 or 12 minutes. Next level to bounce from is just below $2K, which at the rate of losing $1600 per day could be this Friday! 🙂

    They still own the same ¨coins¨, everything is the same except the price. I´m starting to wonder if somebody knows something, like the US is about to come out and ban chitcoins?

  82. Anthonyo

    DOW just tagged minus -600 down for a split second.

    There we just went down through Dow 25000 like butter.

  83. JJHarmen

    I am sitting here with a modest profit with LABD and wondering when the buy the dip crowd will take it away on me.

    1. Nada

      No, he played around with it when it went sideways or moved lower. He missed the upside move in UVXY, because he want back to trading JNUG.

  85. Jim Dandy

    Are bitcoin futures limit down? I believe 20% per day and they turn the machines off. It won´t help, it just guarantees a really ugly open tomorrow.

  86. GMoney

    The theme of the day: “Frightened Leverage”

    Yep, too much leverage trying to squeeze thru a small exit door.

  87. goldilocks

    ……and some were touting “large” positions in HIVE Blockchain/Hashchain Tech in early January.

    2. BeachandBiscuits

      Have some mercy on the bitcoiners 🙂

      Most of us who have been around awhile have had at least one arrogant moment when a seemingly invincible investment crashed and burned. I remember when Global Crossing was going to make me rich…smh.

      If we’re wise it humbles us and makes us smarter. If we’re not, we get to wash, rinse and repeat.

      Let the bitcoiners learn and don’t rub it in….beyond what’s necessary to make sure they learn a lesson that will save them much, much pain in the future 🙂

      BTW, I’ve owned a few BTC and made good money on them, so I’m not anti crypto.

  89. Christian

    “Most of the time you parrot everything Gary says or does and try to pass it along as your special tidbits.”

    BALONEY my friend! And I would appreciate if from now on you could keep those useless snarky comments to yourself, especially considering the fact that I’ve been hanging around this blog a heck of a lot longer than most — yourself included 🙂

  90. Anthonyo

    -700 points day is a piece of cake,
    -900 is not out of the question?
    Any bids for -900?

    lol

    SPX crashed down through bull market trendline at 2700 like it was butter.

    You must love the ferocity of this sell off…Love it.

  91. palobar

    The current correction in the USD has not over-balanced the previous correction since the major low in 2008 neither in price nor in time. Hence, in my world, this is still a correction in bull market. I expect the Dollar to move higher in the next weeks.

  92. DaZeD

    There’s your intraday break of the bull market trend line and very oversold conditions…. I bought… we’ll see how good of an idea it was

  93. palobar

    A long position in the Dollar seems more attractive to me here. I shorted the Euro last week. Right now I am in a risk free trade in case the Dollar keeps droping.

  97. Nada

    I am closing my gold puts while I am profit. I do not want the freakout in the markets to take away my gains. Cash is king atm.

      1. Nada

        hehe, little bit. With options I do not want to risk my profits. Hopefully its just money flow because folks are scared and the dollar punishes them tomorrow.

  99. Spanky

    I guess I’m glad I didn’t go all in on a 3x Dow ETF a couple of weeks ago when Gary was telling me to forget about the metals. Then again, it’s not like my miners have done any better…

    1. Anthonyo

      It’s not the PPT, it is a normal whiplash bounce when it plunge din 1 second to -1600 in a flash.

      Now it’s going down again after the spike reaction.

      PPT has been instructed to stand down by Fed and Mega banks in this one.

  105. Don

    S&P down 3% seems like a big deal because we haven’t seen this kind of action for a very long time. The central banks are obviously not in a big rush to jump in just yet.

  106. Jimsee

    nice – start instilling a bot of fear – a normal 10% correction in a week in the dow – no matter it recovers, the volatility begins!

    Volatility will ultimately kill confidence – the next death spiral imo.

  110. palobar

    The 24190 level provided strong support. If that level is taken out the Dow may head much lower towards the 20000 level.

  111. Christian

    “The time to buy is when you’re scared”

    Which one of you has the ‘Cojones’ to pull the trigger at these levels?!

    1. palobar

      I would go long at 24190 with a reasonable stop loss. I missed it earlier. Now I will be an observer:). Certainly the Dow can go much lower, but in my view bull markets dont end this way.

    1. Nada

      How are those nasdaq futures doing? This is a perfect example of when those little stops do not get triggered and you bankrupt your account when playing the futures market.

      I think the PM move were reflexive. Their sell off should continue.

  113. BeachandBiscuits

    Supposedly Cramer just said the markets are “phony”….if insiders like him are saying it, wow.

      1. BeachandBiscuits

        My point is that if MSMers like him are saying it that’s pretty incredible. Usually they do all they can to cover for the charade of a true market.

    1. Nada

      How? Gold is up 3 points and miners have been in sell mode for the last few days. Did you go all in right at the bounce?

  118. Anthonyo

    Looks like the worst may be over for today……..We may retest the lows of today just above Dow 24,100 one more time this week and then it could be over.

  120. primetime

    Looks like that was a stop run to steal a lot of shares from the faint at heart. It also appears that smart money is rolling into the safety of bitcoin! ha Backed up another truck today to play more short vix and udow.

  123. Goild

    That money was put into gold is a good sign.
    Much more to come.
    Another bullish sign.
    Get on board with the miners:

    Currently holding:

    2000 GDX shares
    2000 JNUG shares

    With JNUG at $14.55 I pocketed today $3500 🙂

    1. Nada

      Goild you are betting against the dollar when it is confirming its move out of the ICL. You have been warned.

  125. Anthonyo

    Update: Uh-Oh it looks like Dow is getting ready to go towards the day’s lows agin a 2nd time before closing… -1100 now again.

    1. Anthonyo

      I tend to agree.
      Although the bottom today was a quick sharpest “V” ever witnessed by yours truly. It could stick and be the bottom.

      Here is the Question though NOW: Do we dare to go X3 Long NOW before the closing?

      1. Gary Post author

        When the bubble pops no one will be scared. They will have been trained to expect every dip will be recovered. There will be no fear when the top comes.

        Clearly that’s not the case now.

        Mark Hulbert described it perfectly. Bullish sentiment is a mile wide, but only an inch deep.

  127. primetime

    Get out the new bed sheets…there are gonna be a lot of wet dreamers from today’s market action. Everyone is all excited.

  129. Jimsee

    earnings are rolling over in the consumer space with irates up and bloated debt levels, failing subprimes in auto, etc…

    the ‘economy is accelerating’ meme is a sick joke.

    this takes a toll on institutional investors of size.

    1. Gary Post author

      The NYMO should be more oversold today than it’s been in a long time. Now should be “close enough” to start buying.

      1. Gary Post author

        Bonds may have completed an ICL as well. If so it will take away the so called reason for the sell off.

      2. Christian

        Ahem.. I hate to sound like daddy’s little “parrot” but I am 100% in agreement with you 🙂 And I’ll pick up another couple thousands shares if the NYMO starts to diverge and we get one more low this week — Boom!

        1. Nada

          Listen up buddy boy, if you want to drop things, then drop them. Do not ask me to extend that courtesy and think you can continue with the quips, while I stay silent 😛

          1. Christian

            Nada — I realize it’s hard for you to stay silent based on everything that I’ve read over the past few months but the fact of the matter is that I’ve never been rude or disrespectful to you and would appreciate if you could just let me be.

            You know how the old saying goes: If you don’t have anything nice to say then..

            Thx bud and good luck with your trading 🙂

  132. Goild

    Nada,

    I appreciate the advice.

    At this point JNUG is insensitive to USD.

    It did not benefit from USD fall.

  136. Anthonyo

    Gary,

    What is Oil’s cycle situation?

    Are we starting ICL process for oil yet?

    It was the reluctant decliner today, Oil.

  137. Don

    Hmmm…not even a short covering rally at the close. All of the S&P January gains are wiped out and we are back to where it was in mid December. Is Gary calling for a bottom at this point?

    1. Gary Post author

      The time to buy is when you’re scared. Everyone is scared. It should be “close enough”.

    2. Anthonyo

      Don,

      I think we are 90% out of the woods…Why?
      The split-second plunge to -1600 on the Dow had an equally instantaneous very sharp “V” rally to only -900 points in 2 seconds time. This is the hallmark of a very clear and crisp “V” bottom.

      Now, we “may” retest it again(I’m doubtful if we will retest it) before taking off again, or we may just take off from here again.

      I was not scared, but was excited, enjoyed it actually…I went ahead and bought 1 minute before closing anyway >>>UDOW.

    1. Gary Post author

      I can guarantee there are no retail traders buying this dip. Only smart money will be buying.

      We should see a huge reduction in index shorts come Friday.

  139. Spanky

    Yen was up pretty big today (almost 1%). The miners didn’t care though. Miners are about to get trashed. Maybe a trashy little bounce before the coup de grace though.

  140. ocram

    ShiPPy miners are dead,earth could blow up and they would continue to be dead!
    Worst sector BY FAR!
    They will CRASH when the dollar will recover…….I have no words.

    1. Spanky

      yes, welcome to the last 50 years in the miners. Sure, greatest bull market ever blah blah blah. Too bad I’ll be 6ft under before they get to new highs.

  141. jacob2

    Wow! Only a 150 points away from my S&P target and it all happened in less then a week. Going to get short covering rally soon but rallies should be sold. Anyone buying now is buying for a flip. As soon as a new decline sets in they’ll be selling hard.

    The character of the market has changed. On the endangered species watch list:
    1. The bubble
    2. 10,000 a piece of cake etc.
    3. Nothing is going to stop the market from getting to 10,000.

    2. Gary Post author

      Nope, you are going to be completely wrong. This is not a left translated cycle. This is just a hard ICL after a very powerful rally.

      It will reset sentiment and set the stage for the rally to 10,000.

    1. Christian

      No doubt more than a few got a Margin Call today :/ That’s the risk you run when you’re over-leveraged.

  143. cdntrader

    Nothing Unusual Happening and Nothing is Going to Stop the Market from Getting to 10000…
    so no worries..we are only down 8 percent from highs..we should blast off anytime to new highs..

    1. Gary Post author

      Absolutely, and in a month from now I’ll be telling you I told you so, just like I do after every one of these ICL’s.

      This is a buying opportunity. Either choose to take it or make the same mistake as every other ICL in this bull market.

      1. Gary Post author

        The panic level is almost equal to the 7 YCL.

        Probably the best trade right now would be to short volatility.

        1. MrBurns

          I agree, it’s tough to short VIX though, Butterfly puts may work in March chain, I would not just buy straight puts though.

      2. GMoney

        Gary: The amount of leverage in this market is astronomical. Leverage stacked on leverage. It will take time to unwind. Notice no bounce into the close. There is more unwinding to come.

  144. Anthonyo

    This is HEADLINE of FOX NEWS …. When you see this kind of picture and nonsense in MSM, the bottom may be near or behind us.

    FOX NEWS HEADLINE: “HISTORIC PLUNGE”
    >>Dow drops more than 1,100 points at closing bell, erasing 2018’s gains amid inflation fears<<

    (What inflation fear?? LOL!!! baloney.)

  145. jonsyl

    market down a ton and all pundits say don’t worry be happy. Nothing to see here, move along. Mmmmmmmm just too complacent for me

  146. Jim Dandy

    Gary, I thought you always wait for a swing low before buying? Or was this selloff enough to start buying, in your opinion?

    1. Gary Post author

      I suspect the swing when it occurs will be similar to election night.

      I’m not saying today is the final bottom. It may be. I’m saying it’s probably close enough to start buying.

    2. bginvestor

      JD,

      the problem w/ equities is that they tend to make LONG white/dark candles at DCL’s. Buying on the swings can get frustrating at times..

  148. Spanky

    Gold:silver ratio back over 80 today. So much for inflation.

    The ratio has been in a raging bull market since 2011 and 2016 was clearly nothing more than a blip to reset sentiment in the sector. New ATHs in the ratio coming this year. There is a cup and handle on the monthly that projects to 95.

  151. cdntrader

    All kidding aside I am hoping for another 3 percent drop tomorrow and then I will be buying the general sm for a 6-9 month trade.

  152. GMoney

    No, too much leverage being unwound now. We could be entering a period of cascading leverage defaults.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is exactly the kind of sentiment we always hear near or at ICL bottoms.

      The sky is falling crowd comes out and that signals maximum bearish sentiment is near.

    2. Spanky

      Debt doesn’t matter. The Fed has your back, along with the BoJ, SNB and ECB. The more leverage that is piled on, the less likely the Fed will let this get out of hand.

    2. Gary Post author

      I’m still waiting for the current sentiment levels to be published, but based on the VIX we’re getting close.

      1. ras

        Actual bottom can only be known in hind sight. vix and vix etfs and % dev from 50 ma all point in the same direction. No need for undue haste and heroics. After a drubbing of this kind, sm needs to regroup and do a bit of basing. Sm is not going to run away in the blink of an eye leaving anybody behind. Easy does it.

  156. itsinthedna

    Volatility black swan event possible here folks. XIV liquidation in process and could have profound consequences across brokers.

  157. victor

    VIX, couldn’t resist, bought 900 shares of HVI.TO (BetaPro S&P 500 VIX ST Fut) , a bit early though, was expected 2700 S&P to hold.

  158. zbigkid

    Yup. This means there is no liquidity. Anyone who wanted to get out, pretty much could not, WHEN they wanted to. XIV disintegrating, means its worse tomorrow for liquidity. The algo’s have destroyed the markets, and proof of this is, the FED is going to have to keep pouring liquidity into the markets, even as it continues to get destroyed faster than its poured in. Anyone who is in this market is an absolute fool. Today, tomorrow, and for a long time. You have no clue what you are doing, and 90% of the pro’s, are so far in over their heads right now, they are just throwing sh*t at the wall to see what sticks. Right around when the Dow was 1600 pts down, you could not execute any buy orders. NONE. ZERO.NADA.ZIP.

    Nobody is reporting on that. So what do you think that means to sellers ??????????????????????????????????

    These guys on the exchanges can no longer make the market. Liquidity is gone, and If i have to explain to you why that is, you truly should not be trading or in ANY stocks. This is not election night folks. Whoever said that is even more clueless.

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL I’m going to mark this comment and once we get the bottom I’m going to remind you of this. And just like every other ICL of this bull market I’m going to tell you “I told you so”.

      1. Bluebellkid

        LOL is right Gary. If you would have just a little bit of humbleness and admit you didn’t see this coming it would be refreshing. Since you spent all of last week telling everyone that nothing was unusual and to buy the dip and it was dangerous to be on the sidelines, you now how to stick to that mantra. Pour ole golddigger bought TQQQ and UDOW on January 31 when TQQQ was in the 170’s and UDOW was 110ish. Had you been able to see the red flags and warning signs that all was not well you could have warned everyone that we need to be on the sidelines until whatever is going on plays out. Today was the biggest point drop EVER in the DOW, it was however not the biggest percent drop by a long shot. The Put Call ratio I told you about the other day that you referenced earlier today for the first time is at 1.10 (in the past 1.15 or higher have signaled bottoms). There is hope and I believe an excellent buying opportunity coming because when a near-term bottom is made and no doubt more volatile action, we could see a rally of 10% or more and this has occurred on a number of similar occasions.

        1. Gary Post author

          I absolutely didn’t see it coming. The market kept going up much further than I expected. I knew at some point we would get a correction but none of my tools were working anymore to tell me when it would occur. So I decided I would just go Old Turkey and make sure we didn’t miss any more of the rally to 10,000 just in case the correction didn’t come.

          I resigned myself to having to weather the correction if it ever did come.

          We are within a day or two of the final bottom, and once it’s done the next leg of the bull will begin, and I think the next leg will be even more aggressive than the last one.

          1. Bluebellkid

            I don’t know about a day or two and since I don’t know I will let the markets tell me. I am building a potential buy list.

          2. GMoney

            Crashes from a 3 standard deviation level above the 200 day do not end so soon. There is more downside……a lot more downside.

    2. GMoney

      Agree 100%. And the leverage was at an all time record. Watch all that leverage turn into a smoking pile of ashes.

    3. itsinthedna

      That might be a little harsh. But volatility humbled a lot of people today caught shorting it. The MMs don’t just drop prices due to no interest. Every sale has a buy. When the Algos kick in only those can place the trades because they are 3 times quicker than every brokerage house- I know because I know a guy that installs those computers.

      Rates are low and going up. Bonds are toast. Stocks and metals are the buys. This will recover soon.

  159. Gary Post author

    Classic dumb money behavior. With the VIX almost as high as the 7 YCL dumb money is just now getting bearish and looking for ever lower prices.

    Bag holders on the upside and bag sellers on the down side.

    The world never changes.

  161. jacob2

    The way things are unraveling the s&p will probably hit my downside buy target of 2500 by noon tomorrow. “Nothing unusual happening”,except for the slaughter.

  162. chrisG

    I think based on Gary’s remark, he meant even if index crashed 20% then rally, he is still right. Lol

  164. espresso

    I just took at look at the 87 S&P chart.
    In ’87, the SPX got 17.8% above the 200dma
    Last week, the SPX got 13.7% above the 200dma.

    There are some similarities.

    I’d like to think there is one more big move up and this will be referred to later as the “shot across the bow” versus the shot that took out the masts.

    But knowledge of the extreme P/E, the corruption in the markets, and the systemic jiggering of the past 20 years eventually will come home to roost. This week, or later.

    Hopefully later as Gary says, since that is how I’m currently invested.

  165. espresso

    I am a contrarian, btw… added on Friday. Could really have waited one more day at least, as it turns out.

  167. isavage

    This XIV event & VIX short squeeze has been expected for some time & why i have been short XIV.

    However i was feeling that this “event of 100% loss on XIV” would happen at the end of the blow off top. So where are we?!? As to lose control of the VIX market day one on the job is a big loss of confidence in Mr Powell if you ask me.

    Perhaps this is the fuel for the slingshot move higher.

  168. cdntrader

    Doesnt it seem that everyone is expecting a nice bounce..that this is healthy for the market..it seems like there isnt that much real fear out there after years of no real corrections..hmmm..I wonder if we dontneed an even bigger down day to really freak everyone out..

    1. Gary Post author

      The VIX spiked 115%. How can you possibly think there is no fear?

      Only smart money traders are seeing this as an opportunity. There are no retail traders buying.

        1. cdntrader

          Well that seems to be the conventional thinking..almost nobody I follow is expecting this to be the start of a bear market..even the bearish people.

    1. Gary Post author

      No no no. This is the final opportunity to buy before the run to 10,000.

      Never never sell with the VIX this high. Never in history has it paid off.

      1. Gary Post author

        If we gap down in the morning that will be the buy signal to get in and then hang on until the next intermediate cycle tops.

          1. Gary Post author

            We are within 1 or 2 days of the bottom if we didn’t get it today. Then we will have another intermediate rally that last 12-20 weeks.

          1. Gary Post author

            I’m Old Turkey. I don’t want to risk missing any of the move to 10,000. An ICL doesn’t bother me. They always end and once it does there will be another 12-20 week rally.

  171. Bluebellkid

    Gary, I don’t recall hearing you mention Bollinger Band crash trades lately. Maybe I don’t know all the criteria for what constitutes a BB crash trade but it looks like we are there.

  173. Goild

    The market is going now sideways till the Summer.
    Find the channel trend lines and play it.
    That is the play!!!

  177. jonsyl

    yes jim. fear, baseless or not could surprise us one morning with a 50 dollar plus uptick opening in gold and miners finally kicking in.

    the collapse of xiv shows extreme in emotions. Any spike out of this hole should be false.

Comments are closed.