274 thoughts on “GOLD CYCLE LEFT TRANSLATING

  1. Cybo33

    Gary, all I know is if the QQQ’s can convincingly break 200 during this intermediate cycle we should throw a party for you.

    1. vin

      If we see 10k in June we should all travel to that wonderful land called California and have a bash. How about LV?

        1. vin

          Sounds good to me. But ….. Aren’t we counting chickens before they hatch.

          Today really wasn’t quite a vertically UP day. BTW I have doubts whether we see 10k before July.

          On a second second thought why not have a get together anyway. It will be nice to see some of you, specially Gary, in person. I will be more than happy to chip in. Winters suit me the most. Again, summers are not that pleasant in LV anyway if one doesn’t want to stay in all the time. It can get darn hot.

  2. bluelagoon

    Gary – you usually say the mkts usually bottom with either the dollar or the euro and it looks like this time it’s the dollar. Are you thinking both will go up together? Many think gold, oil and markets have an inverse relationship to the dollar at this time.

    1. Gary Post author

      This time stocks and the dollar completed their ICL’s together.

      Stocks can go up with a rising dollar, so can oil. Gold probably can not.

  3. vin

    Thank God, we got another great buying opportunity in the vertically UP sling-shot parabolic SM. It is quite possible that like all the other previous ones this one may be the last one. Particularly now that March is only 1 day away and 10k in March could very well be the wonderful gift we the faithfuls are hoping for. If not, then it could very well be April.

    It has to be before July because big bets have been made. I am holding my breath.

    Hopefully the faithfuls availed to-day’s gift and loaded up because 10k is a piece of cake and 20k is not out of question. Very soon, may be in March.

    I wonder where is the best opportunity tomorrow: btc, SM or PM? Or, shall the experts tell us at the end of the day?

  4. Gary Post author

    Why not? We’re already testing the all-time highs and we’re only 11 days into the new cycle.

  5. RTTPD

    Based on the current COTS and timing band, it looks like there’s a good possibility that silver could see a monster rally out of the next ICL/YCL. It may even jump the gun 5 or 6 trading days before the FOMC.

    I think we will see the gold/silver ratio start to move in the other direction too.

  6. RTTPD

    If anyone has been paying attention to both Spanky and stocktwits, you’ve seen for yourself that many retail traders invested in Silver miners are at wits end and ready to capitulate.

    I read a handful of them today who truly believe that the cryptos and cannabis have not hurt gold……but instead they are the reason for Silver’s vast underperformance.

    This has to be music to your ears if you like Silver!

    1. Jim Dandy

      I agree, but still think it´s way too early to be a buyer. Spanky needs to get spanked first, I don´t see his whining as a sign of capitulation just yet. I would bet we have at least 20% more downside in the silver miners he mentions here. I also don´t think silver will do anything special in relation to gold until we are nearing the end of a bull move, not early (like now) as some are calling for. Silver isn´t going anywhere without gold, and only when people are confident gold is up and going higher, will they start piling into silver. I say this because many have been bullish on silver and it´s miners over the last year+, and they didn´t do anything, the buying wasn´t enough to move the needle. And 20% downside in miners isn´t anything, they can do that in a week or two, once they decide they are going lower.

      I will be looking to buy heavily, but not for awhile yet. I have seen miners do things that make no sense whatsoever, so I´ve learned they can go to almost zero before they feel the need to start up a bull market again!

      Now, if Spanky outright sells, we need to pay attention! 🙂

      We just have to be patient, and will have a great opportunity before long. Good luck.

      1. Spanky

        First of all, many of my silver miners can drop a lot more than 20% between now and the next ICL. Second of all, I am not selling. I’ve held for over two years now and will ride this out, knowing full well we could retest the 2016 low in the silver miners. So F off with the insults. I am still in the green on my positions.

  7. Jim Dandy

    Interesting video, Gary. Thanks, and it looks like miners are set up to take it in the cheeks when gold moves into the ICL.

  8. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    The slingshot has done it’s job and both of the leading sectors have rebounded violently back to test the all time highs. Now it’s just a question of time until they breakout to new highs, and then how aggressive will the rally become once resistance is pierced.

  9. ARends

    1 Sign That the Stock Market Will Collapse EXTREMELY FAST and We Just Got A Warning!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSGcIXCkpaE

    This is very interesting comments on margin calls and cost thats value is increasing, meaning all is overleveradged. the moment it will happen it will just be a slaughter. Possibly different to previou events with autotrading included and debt interlinking

    1. Gary Post author

      LMAO. Another top caller.

      Sorry but margin debt is not a sign of a top. Margin debt was at the same level in 63. The market kept going higher for 3 years. Margin debt was at the same level in 76. The market rose for 4 more years. Same level in 83, 84 & 85. The market continued higher for two more years. Do these people even bother to do any research before they publish this nonsense? It’s the same thing as the volume argument. It sounds plausible so traders just assume it’s true instead of checking to see if reality matches the theory.

      Why you folks keep listening to these people is beyond me. I’ve given you a road map to what is occurring, I’ve been proven correct over and over yet most of you still want to ignore me.

      It just defies logic.

      1. alvinheart

        It is fear, Gary. Certain so-called “experts” describe their brilliant past stock market predictions and are top-calling now. So, even though you have indeed proven yourself and your system over and over, for the amateur trader it is scary to see another accomplished “expert” make a call that is opposite your own. Then fear sets in: what if Gary is wrong this time? etc etc.

    2. Bluebellkid

      The NYSE has suspended their NYSE Member Firm margin data as of December 2017. Hmmm…wonder why?? The Federal Reserve (F.R.E.D.) recently quit reporting the chart showing how much banks lend to one another because the lending has stopped, I mean the line on the last chart posted fell off the cliff. Banks are afraid to loan money to another bank for fear of not getting it back. Any bells going off or light bulbs coming on out there.

          1. Gary Post author

            Attachment

            SPX is still trying to break above the 10 WMA. I suspect by the end of the week it will. It is completing the weekly swing low this week.

          1. Gary Post author

            As I’ve already shown volume isn’t important. But FWIW the volume was big on the last down week. Dumb money was selling and smart money was buying. The next up week was also heavier than normal as smart money recognized the bottom and rushed to get in early.

        1. Robert

          Yes I think at best by next week the SPY will be back at the Tuesday high. But new highs is going to take a long time maybe after the Fed

          1. Anthonyo

            Margin levels, volume’s volume, these ancient indicators went out with the 70s analysts.
            It’s 2018; we are in a post QE bubble in stocks. Smelling coffee this morning.

  10. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    The dollar has produced a slightly higher high this morning. That should be the final confirmation that an ICL has formed. The bigger picture has cleared up now. The dollar should top on or around the FOMC meeting and gold should bottom at roughly the same time.

    Stocks can continue higher along with the dollar but I expect they will really start to accelerate aggressively once the dollar tops and turns back down. At that point stocks and gold will probably go up together.

  11. Infamous_M

    Hello, I finally gave up with GOLD/MINERS for the time being until Gary’s certain we should be in it. With that being said, Is there any ETF you guys would recommend to buy in my 401k?

    I plan on loading up on TQQQ later today.

  12. vin

    @Gary: “Based on the money flow numbers big money bought both stocks and gold today.”

    Your observation was correct. Man, you are good.

      1. vin

        Ooops. It did and I was busy drinking scotch.

        Let us see if I get another chance tomorrow. Love to get it as 87.87

  13. MegaMind

    my gut feeling is that the stock markets will drop 20% as interest rates go up…Gold should drop along with stock market. Dollar should rally into FOMC. All these things makes sense to me. The real question, will the market follow my direction.

    1. Spanky

      Bernanke explicitly backstopped the US stock market with the Fed’s printing press ten years ago. It’s up up and away. Free money for those with assets. The rich-poor divide gets ever wider and no one seems to know why.

      1. vin

        @Spanky … “Free money for those with assets” ?????
        What assets? They don’t need any assets for free money. It would be more appropriate to say: Free money for some special ones, and 24% card interest for the rest of us.

        No no no no…… It is NOT 99% vs 1%. Special ones are much less than 1%. And, suckers are 80% or so.

        It will be interesting to see how it ends. It will be one of the greatest show ever. I know. I know it will hurt. But, then it will be fun to watch.

        Those darn debt numbers make no sense at all.

        But. here is the most interesting part. Historically the special ones brought the working class to their knees because they wanted cheap labor. They don’t need labor anymore. So, what does the average person (80%) has to give in return for survival? It certainly will be interesting to see how it all ends.

  14. Robert

    Gary how is the short term sentiment on SPY, does it still need to cool off? Maybe we need another few more red days to set up for the next leg up. Or do you believe that’s about it for the correction?

        1. Gary Post author

          The market is going to be stuck while the NDX and semi’s build up energy to break through those resistance levels.

  15. Spanky

    Attachment

    I know comparing past markets to current markets if pretty futile, but the $HUI was range bound for about 2 years between ’03 and ’05.

    In 2005, it’s 200 dma was in danger of crossing below the 600 dma, just like today. In May of that year, it went well below both MAs before bottoming and rocketing up and ultimately breaking the 2 year consolidation. Notice that the 2005 low basically retested the low from the prior year.

    I am hoping that we can replicate this 2005 action today. It would mean that the December 2016 low in GDX around 18.50 would hold and we would get a violent slingshot. Of course, the problem is, is that in 2005 the HUI was already a well established bull market, with the 200 WMA trending strongly upwards. That is not the case today. the 200 WMA is flatish with maybe a very slight down slope still. The alternative scenario is pretty much the exact opposite of a slingshot–i.e., the break down in 2012, where the 200dma crossed below the 600 dma and marked one of the most vicious bear markets in history.

    FWIW, at the yearly cycle low back in 2005, the HUI bottomed about 2 weeks prior to gold’s ICL.

    1. Jim Dandy

      The fact miners didn´t do squat with the recent collapse in the USD means they are just looking for an excuse to let the bottom fall out. I think GDX holding up at $18 is wishful thinking. I´m not predicting it, but even $12 would not surprise me at all. That´s a big percentage drop from here, no reason to stay in when $18 seems a sure thing, and much lower not off the table, either.

      1. Spanky

        Well, if they do drop to that far below the 200 and 600 DMAs, e.g., GDX hits $12 (that would be well below 20% below the 200 dma), one would have to be an idiot not to at least contemplate that the bear is back or at a minimum, the miners will be basing out for years more. The 200 dma crossing decisively below the 600 dma would be a big deal and would speak volumes about the longer term picture, IMO.

    1. Gary Post author

      Like I warned this is not going to be an easy move down for metals and miners. The banks love to whipsaw both bulls and bears during the middle part of a left translated cycle.

      Get ready for a wild ride.

  16. Spanky

    The yen has been strengthening relentlessly, and yet the miners and gold have done nothing.

    USDJPY is now at 106 and the miners are basically marking new lows.

    1. Anthonyo

      Why this investment/trading panel needs to know your daily comings and goings and life schedule every day?

  17. Robert

    The Nasdaq is the best vehicle for the stock market. Anyone who is looking to buy the dips this is the way to go. Not stupid SPY or DIA, those have been lagging badly and the call options are hardly gaining anything. Also buy TQQQ

      1. Gary Post author

        Never buy options on a triple leveraged ETF. It’s a suckers bet. The extra volatility is already priced into the options and the spreads are huge.

        You can do just as well buying calls on QQQ but you won’t have to deal with the giant spreads and slippage.

        1. Robert

          QQQ options is more than enough. Just look on all the calls the are pretty much near the highs. Had I been in them instead of SPY would be cool as a cucumber now. It seems the SPY options have more decay and volatility than the QQQ

          1. Anthonyo

            Thanks Robert; I got you…good to know this. SPY vs QQQ and their options behaviors. QQQ options it is then.

          2. Gary Post author

            Options behave the same whether they are on SPY or QQQ. The Q’s are stronger right now that’s why the options are doing better. Once the SPY catches up those options will start performing.

            But tech and the Dow have been the leaders. I would stick with either QQQ or DIA calls.

          3. Anthonyo

            Robert,
            QQQ May 18 Expiry Calls
            strike prices 180 all they way to 210 ALL Negative change(losing money) ! Why?
            Then you got most calls strike price 179 or lower in the positive.
            Hard to choose an out of money as they seem to be negative % change.

          1. Anthonyo

            Gary

            Better to go with current month out of money calls? Or next month?
            It’s strange, I see some of the out of money call options on QQQ are even in negative like -23% down…it doe snot make sense…..meanwhile some other in the money calls are in the positive.
            How doe sone choose which strike price and expry months?

          2. Robert

            Anthonyo to be safe buy more time maybe April or May and 1 out of the money at most in case we chop like Gary says. I took way out of the money and it has not been a good experience so far

          3. Gary Post author

            No closer than September expiration. This is the main mistake most people make. They don’t give their positions enough time to work and then time Decay kills them.

  18. Gary Post author

    If I had to guess I’d say the NDX is going to flag for a few days before breaking out to new highs.

      1. m0ntana

        Yo! What is up with your fascination with miners? You have been relentlessly bashing for a last couple of days at least. You must be heavily loaded with shorts? Or just playing reverse psychology and closet long?

        1. Spanky

          How is it bashing? The reality is written all over the charts. The miners are going to be flushed over the next 4-6 weeks.

  19. Anthonyo

    Gary,

    No closer than Sept expry, OK check.
    How we manage in money or out of money strike prices?
    Some of the out of money calls seem to be in red?

    1. Gary Post author

      Options are basically like going all-in on a poker hand. They are an all-or-nothing bet so don’t use more money than you can afford to lose.

      1. Anthonyo

        Understood.
        Is there a way to choose strike prices wiser?
        Some of the out of money calls are actually losing value in an up market.

        1. ziasDad

          unless I have a lot of confidence that the market will move in my direction NOW or SOON, like within a day or three, I avoid buying out of the money or even at the money options. If you’re right about the overall direction, but wrong about the timing (say you expect higher prices, but market goes lower or sideways for a few weeks), the time value decay on those options will kill you. I think a better approach is to buy deep in the money options. The deeper in the money an option is, the smaller the “time value”. In other words, deep in the money options are priced very close to the intrinsic value of the option, or what the option would be worth at expiration. If the market moves in your favor, you won’t make as much with deep in the money options as you would with at the money or out of the money options, but you will still make more than if you owned the shares outright. In other words, deep in the money options give you leverage compared to buying shares and they won’t lose much value over time if the market goes sideways for a while while you’re holding them.

    2. roadrunner

      @anthonyo. it seems you are not familiar with options. first you need to do some homework so you can understand what it is you are buying., why you are buying it, and what your strategy is for closing the position. otherwise you are probably just gambling and your luck would be equivalent to what you might have at a casino. maybe you will win, but chances are the house will win. Unless you do your homework. as well ask option traders about some strategies. there are a few on this blog.

  20. Robert

    This could turn out to be a bear flag in the SPY and break down lower. We are going lower, more pain ahead

  21. MrBurns

    Market tanked after Robert Mueller said he’s extending his investigation. He doesn’t care much about cycles.

    1. Anthonyo

      I do not see this news you claim sir>>>, FOX, CNN, nowhere it says Mueller expanding anything..in fact no mention of Mueller at all.
      Made-up news?

      1. Robert

        Anthonyo honestly I think you should stay away from options. Buy TQQQ instead or futures. If the market does not move up in a straight line the decay will just kill you. You could be up 100% 1 day and the next lose it all its not worth it

        1. Anthonyo

          Robert,
          Thanks I have traded options before like in the 90s…but recently no.
          I am dabbling in again as market volatility dictates now.

          But I dont understand though is why do people have to come here and lies about Mueller news which doe snot exist in reality?

  22. Robert

    Anyone playing the SPY on this intermediate cycle is now getting wrecked. So far the 10WMA on SPY could not hold. Left translated cycle ?

  23. carlvan

    I didn’t expect this strong retrace in nasdaq; it looks like QQQ are going to retest the 166 area; hopefully it will stop there and resume rising after that point. So far, this is totally consistent with the construction of the right handle of the super-bullish cup, almost perfect symmetry left and right

        1. Anthonyo

          hahaha submarine!…….why am I hungry suddenly….. that term submarine could also be performed in the swimming pool given the right pool partner…just saying, lol

    1. Robert

      Inverse cup and handles start from the bottom not the top. I am noticing the blog is kind of quiet today. Lots of us got an ass kicking. Only those holding TQQQ from the lows like Gary are unfazed

      1. carlvan

        Robert, yes I agree with your note of inverse CWH, but I never mentioned, nor nobody else, an inverse CWH here. Now, and as per remark of other fellows here, I agree this CWH might resemble more to an inverse H&S pattern, because not rounded enough to be a Cup. But both (CWH or Inverse H&S) are bullish. And…also agree with the fact that this might be a double top, seen the steadyness and speed of both legs down and up! So I agree with everything today- am the good guy !

    1. didier

      True, i think we’re in for a retest, an undercut. I have readied my diapers, lol. I think spx will get hit quite badly.

  24. Gary Post author

    Robert you are hilarious. get rid of your options you are way too emotional to be trading those.

  25. primetime

    Attachment

    As I type, I am listening to Bertha Butt belt out the notes, singing away. She is singing no JNUG 500, no metal Bull, no slingshot, no 10,000 NASDAQ and no cake for anyone. Have a great evening.

    However, my boat is heavily loaded with metals, miners, and market indexes. The TITANIC comes to mind.

  26. jbird

    SPY has to rebound tomorrow and resume uptrend. Otherwise hourly 13-EMA will cross 34-EMA soon to down side for a down trend.

  27. MrBurns

    Anthonyo, if you don’t know why those QQQ way out-of-the-money calls you talked about earlier had lost value, then please, stay with common shares.

    Also, why the fuck would you look at that strike in MAY? Even if it was a lottery call, it is not a good one.

    I don’t always agree with Gary‘s calls, however I’m just about 100% in agreement in what he’s told anyone and everyone here about options. The tendency to buy the wrong ones and gravitate towards ‘cheap’ strikes is a mistake that will cost you money 90% of the time.

    1. didier

      A subscription to smt costs 50$ a month. If you don’t understand that such a subscription could be helpful then i think it’s best to forget about options. To complicated or you lack the money to play it with leverage.

    2. MrBurns

      The information I posted was what I saw, based on newsfeeds, so please pull up your diapers and quit crying.

      Besides, you think that I posted that and market dropped because of it?

      Also, regarding “my business”, you’re on a public chatroom, divulging your own “business”, if you don’t want to be responded to, either leave or don’t read/reply to my comments. Kindergarten is over.

    1. MrBurns

      Again, BoW/SoS is barely 50% of the time correct, this is like a flip of a coin. Also, last update is at 17:45 ET.

      1. Troy

        But today printed 1.8 billion on the SPY. We may not shoot up tmrw, but the buying pressure is building.

    2. trendyfollower

      Impressive BoW #s. Not a timing tool, but showing the direction of the trend. Big boyz are loading up.

  28. Christian

    Attachment

    AMAZING — every day I see people giving each other lip and busting each other’s balls left and right and the BLOG POLICE and Social Justice Warriors are nowhere to be found but as soon as Gary’s little lap dog with an ego the size of a building [that would be me ladies] pipes up against the blockheads that frequent this blog daily; the whole world goes berserk, LOL!

    This blog really is a comedy show sometimes!

    Keep it up GOOMBAS 🙂

    btw.. I won’t mention any names but the picture above is how I imagine most of you when I close my eyes at night, Hahaaaa!

    1. Gary Post author

      No chance of that happening.

      Intermediate cycles don’t top that quickly.

      The NDX and SOX just needed to pullback and regroup before breaking out to new highs. Once they do the rest of the market is coming along for the ride.

    1. Vortex

      Goild,

      The metals and miners are a ghastly bad investment vehicle in this current environment.

      It’s stunning the number of people that defend this sector as a positive way to put cash to work when every other day is damn near a bloodbath in the miners.

      Even after years of being ripped off, swindled and bankrupted, the masses still hold out hope while picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

  29. Rapunsel

    Mr.Goild,

    I think we will see HUI below 160 sometime in next 2 months.

    “IF” the SM goes BUBBLEISTIC.

    Why hold miners when you can make easy money in SM?
    Seriously they will be tossing those babies out with the bathwater if SM goes ballistic. Every source of capital will get thrown at the SM till of course the rocket runs out of fuel.

    Just sayin….

    1. Vortex

      So true, Gary must lose his mind regurgitating the same talking points about the SM and no one listening.

  30. jacob2

    Mr. R. That’s a very big “IF”. NO SM bubble due for a long consolidation and churn till it hurts camp. At 1300 gold may not be a bad investment compared to everything else.

  31. Goild

    Mr. Rapunsel, Mr. Vortex,

    Thank you for the comments.

    It is very true, it is a mistake joining the losers.
    It seems that the miners are sick and condemned to death.

    As per joining the SM I think it is too late to put any serious amount of money there.
    I would put money in the SM if the S&P gets to about 2000. “it is not out of the question”
    I see gold as a viable place to put money.

    Any other ideas where to INVEST and not speculate with retirement money?

  32. Gary Post author

    I have to laugh when I hear people say they would buy when price gets down to such and such a level. As we’ve seen over and over no one ever does that. Why? Because when price is going down it looks like it’s going to keep going down. At 2000 it’s going to look like it’s going to 1500.

    No one will ever pull the trigger at any of these price targets. Not one single person in the challenge bought at the bottom except me, and I was a couple of days early.

    1. MrBurns

      I wasn’t watching the index, when NYMO hit -140 intraday, I started to look into buying – that move up was very fast and sharp, options were blown out, so instead of buying calls, I wrote puts in various equities and QQQ.

  33. cazabrujas

    The CNN Fear and Greed index is at 12 now. Looks like the dumb money is as scared as it was at the bottom of the las IC. That’s great news for us longs.

  34. Gary Post author

    I don’t like the commodity space at the moment. Gold and I think oil as well are starting left translated cycles which will result in moves down to ICL’s.

    Stocks are stuck at the moment waiting for the NDX and semi’s to regroup and make another push to complete the breakout. Once they do the rest of the market will follow.

  35. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, why should one have bothered buying stock etfs in the Challenge when one could sit comfortably shorting metals 🙂 – shorting metals has been the safest game on the Street for over a month.

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL just like buying bonds was a sure thing several weeks ago too?

      Yes as soon as the dollar started to get some separation from the cycle trend line shorting the metals became a high probability trade but with the NYMO hitting -120 stocks were a no brainer.

      It looks like the HCL has started a bit earlier than expected, but I guess it was asking a little too much for the NDX and semi’s to breakout to new highs on the first attempt.

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        I am long Treasuries, as I said on Feb23 in a post here, but, as you know, not in the Challenge, in my personal CFD and futures accounts.

  36. ras

    Apparently, 10 point plus pull back in tqqq is a piece of cake before breaking out. Nas is not for lonely walk, it needs company from other majors most of the time.
    Fangs are a mixed bunch. Googl, fb: weak. Aapl,amzn,nflx: holding up well. What is new? Early/late arrival of cycles can be an issue at times.

  37. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    Even though some people are losing their mind and conjuring up all kinds of dire predictions, all that is happening is the two leading sectors have pulled back from the first test of the all time highs. It’s possible the futures bottomed this morning on the test of the 10 DMA. Once tech and semi’s breakout to new highs they are going to pull the rest of the market up with them.

    1. RTTPD

      ” Even though some people are losing their mind and conjuring up all kinds of dire predictions, all that is happening is the two leading sectors have pulled back from the first test of the all time highs. ”

      What is there…….maybe 5 posts since early last night. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such low activity here.

    2. ras

      Likely. Tqqq: after 15 point drop intraday, long legged doji. Hope this persists into the close.

  38. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    Gold has confirmed a failed daily cycle in progress by dropping below the February DCL.

    Remember there is almost always a convincing bounce at some point. Don’t get suckered into buying the first bounce. Wait for the second leg down. I’m going to say there’s little chance of a final bottom until the March FOMC meeting. So we have about 15 trading days yet before we start looking for the YCL.

    1. Gary Post author

      Be aware that the middle part of a left translated cycle is when the banks like to whipsaw traders. That whipsawing could begin today with the break of the February low.

    1. primetime

      Same song and dance for the last two years…it is in a bull, just needs ONE more down, and then……………………………………………….yeah right and then to the moon. For at least a week or two move. Whatever.

      1. Spanky

        Well, admittedly, if you look back at 1999-2004ish, silver was absolute crap compared to gold. It really only outperformed gold very late in the game.

        Silver and gold are undoubtedly overvalued relative to the commodity complex as a whole. Either commodities start rising and outpacing gold to the upside, or gold and silver will go down to revert to their historical norms.

        But my god, when you look at the stock market relative to the commodity complex, what the central banks have been able to get away with in the last 10 years is simply amazing. The REAL value in US stocks has absolutely exploded upwards to new highs never before seen. Anyone who has not been in US stocks and stuck with commodities has literally lost their shirt in REAL purchasing power terms. The transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich (those who own US stocks) over the last decade has to be one of the greatest in the history of mankind.

  39. Christian

    “So we have about 15 trading days yet before we start looking for the YCL”

    GARY — The YCL already occurred back in December 2017 on the 12th with a total of 2 stretched DAILY CYCLE embedded into it. The prior YCL was also in December 2016. These match up perfectly.

    What am I missing??

    1. primetime

      Yes, but we are trying to hold on to this BULLISH scenario. Anyone can tell metals are in a bull market. GEEZ, just look at it!

        1. onerobot

          Chritian ! Bro; where would I get one of those little boogers? I mean it ! ” I would pet him and feed him and call him George”!

          1. Christian

            LOL! They are lovable, no doubt about it 🙂

            And it’s better than being rude to those that constantly deliver snark and nothing of substance.

            Google “GOOMBA” — It’s from Super Mario.

    2. Gary Post author

      The YCL for 2017 came in July, not December.

      The YCL for 2018 should occur at the next ICL, probably sometime in March.

        1. Gary Post author

          Attachment

          The YCL is the lowest ICL of the year.

          The July ICL was considerably lower than the December ICL thus marking July as the YCL.

          1. Christian

            I understand your logic but I always thought that a bull market should only produce a HIGHER YCL then the one prior moving forward.

          2. Gary Post author

            There are no lower yearly cycle lows at this time. Gold would have to drop below the July low of last year for that to occur.

  40. Goild

    Good day,

    Today might be a repeat day like yesterday in JNUG.
    Perhaps we just saw the high of the day to decay till the day’s end.

  41. Goild

    I got 250 GLD shares to start building a very long term position.
    Still holding 2K GDX shares. We shall see.

  42. Spanky

    $plat taking it on the chin today. It was approaching its declining 200 WMA for the first time in years finally and well that was that.

    2016-18 might be looked back on as nothing more than a bearish consolidation that built a nice base for the next leg down in the commodity complex. I know it makes ZERO fundamental sense from a monetarist or Austrian perspective, but that is the reality staring us in the face. To think that commodities could go even lower here is just, well, incredible. The complex is basically at 50+ year lows currently in absolute terms. When you look at that relative to US stocks, my god US stocks have absolutely generated monstrous REAL gains.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve been trying to get people to focus on stocks for years. Is there some reason you insist on ignoring me?

    2. RTTPD

      “2016-18 might be looked back on as nothing more than a bearish consolidation that built a nice base for the next leg down in the commodity complex. I know it makes ZERO fundamental sense from a monetarist or Austrian perspective, but that is the reality staring us in the face. To think that commodities could go even lower here is just, well, incredible. The complex is basically at 50+ year lows currently in absolute terms. When you look at that relative to US stocks, my god US stocks have absolutely generated monstrous REAL ”

      Start watching the video at 9:25 up to 10:50.

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=649s&v=TDF7LjG9SPc

      Maybe you’re a little too bored and need to follow Christian’s advice and find a good hobby.

      Remember……. Idleness is the Devil’s workshop🙋

  43. primetime

    Looks like Gary’s puppet is bent on name calling again. Some people on this blog will never learn, just like N. Korea…..they wanna start a war they can’t win.

  44. Goild

    Two hours of fun work and I am done.
    It is not cast in concrete that MINERS and GOLD will further dive, or that the SM will continue up.
    Most likely we will have a long SM consolidation.
    This is the opportunity to buy GOLD and I am too timid with 250 GLD shares.
    Have fun!

  45. vin

    Welcome to the month of March. All ready for 10k piece of cake? I am. It could very well be 20k, not out of the question.

    Please correct me if I am wrong. By March it was meant to be 2018 March? No? Or, was it 2020?

    I am a believer. I believe in miracles, specially when performed by those who know. I will soon celebrate 10k. How about you guys?

    1. vin

      Thank you Man! That is a good wish in deed. You enjoy life as well. make money, stay healthy and have fun. Life is too short and everyday it keeps on becoming shorter.

  46. Spanky

    Attachment

    A truly bullish chart would have seen the 144 WMA rising strongly and crossing the 233 WMA with authority instead of staying flat. As far back as the charts go, none of the bull markets in the miners have looked this piss poor. This action since 2016 looks like nothing more than a bearish consolidation. the 2016 8 month rally did enough to completely reset sentiment in the sector.

    At best we are looking at years more basing action at best IMO.

    1. Andy

      Spanky if that is what you truly believe then why in Gods name are you holding old turkey???? that would qualify as insanity

    1. Gary Post author

      My preference is that we will see a bubble due to the insane money-printing over the last 9 years. But it’s possible I’m wrong and we are in a long-term secular bull market that still has another 10 or 15 years to run.

      I think we will know by how this intermediate cycle unfolds.

      1. Christian

        One thing’s for sure.. It’s not behaving like a bubble. I may exit at the cycle top, give or take..

        1. Gary Post author

          I’d say it’s way too early to make that determination right now. The NASDAQ did a slingshot back up to test the all-time highs. We’re going to need to see how it behaves after it breaks through that resistance before we can say whether or not a bubble is going to form.

      2. lokum_

        AMZN is trading 250 times earnings and is leading the market. Imagine its PE at the top

      3. ras

        Either or is ok here. Predictions for the future are just possible scenarios with potential for future backtracking. That is the reality.

      4. jacob2

        Far prefer everything goes up together sooner rather then later scenario (bubble). Afraid the major trend UP is delayed perhaps months or quarters? Like Darwin said “change is the only constant” and when it comes to stocks one must always be willing to change there mind. It’s called survival.

  47. Spanky

    Attachment

    Here is $sugar’s chart from the mid 1990s. I think it bears a striking resemblance to $hui today. Notice the flat 144 WMA and how it broke below that MA for what turned out to essentially be a retest of the bear market low. Sure, $sugar was still in a bull market, but my goodness it took its time to base out.

    1. ras

      Hi, spanky. Stock charts is not displaying chart for $ftse, financial times 100 index. Wondering why?

  48. cazabrujas

    Dumb money sentiment on the SM is going to tank after today. Meanwhile institutional buying is growing, according to the latest BoW numbers. Seems like a good set up for a big up move in the near future.

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL he’s not even close to being right.

      This is how you sell subscriptions to retail traders. Why do you think bear sites have highest ratings?

        1. Gary Post author

          The second he called it a parabolic top I started laughing and quit reading. The S&P was barely 14% above the 200 DMA. There is nothing parabolic about that.

          1. espresso

            At the same time he was doing that, he was oblivious about the bubble that BitCoin was in.

    2. ras

      May be. That is what makes the market. No analyst is right all the time. There is no perfection in this business. Everyone must do his own due diligence.

    3. Spanky

      He actually nailed the top in the HUI back in 2012-13. Called it a huge dome top.
      He’s not bad, and he has sound reasoning. He’s also a good technician.

    4. Spanky

      Well, the miners are finally acting like we have been wishing for 10 years–actually rallying while the SM plunges.

      I truly pray that the low, at least for the miners, is near or in. The HUI needs to retake its 200 and 600 dmas pronto!

  49. Rapunsel

    Now I am scared. I have noted thru the years that when “I” get scared, we are pretty near a turn point.
    I hope so.

  50. GMoney

    Did I not warn everyone that the market event which began in early February was far from over? I think I did, but many here insulted and laughed at me.

    1. Gary Post author

      You were trying to convince everyone that another 1987 was coming. I’m still laughing about that.

  51. Goild

    Likely there will not be easy money in the SM for a long time.
    Perhaps the next play will be identifying a channel and play ping pong.

    Now the name of the game is called patience.
    No more easy money.

  52. Don

    Starting the third month of the year and the S&P is now down YTD (as is the Russell 2000) The Nasdaq is still positive so I guess that means the parabolic move is still on despite the current rough patch. “I told you so” commentary has been prepped with, no doubt, a high degree of confidence. Wait for it.

  53. ras

    tqqq: pull back intra day 20 points and counting. A downside bubble/parabola or whatever sales pitch one cares to coin? Price flirting with 50 day ma. Worth watching vix as it shoots up.

  54. Gary Post author

    I’ll say it again: 10,000 is going to be a piece of cake.

    My theory is that it will come as a parabolic move this year. My bet was by July.

    If not then we are probably in a secular bull market that has another 10-15 more years to run. But make no mistake the Nasdaq is going to hit 10,000 and it’s going to do it before we have the next bear market.

    1. Don

      Gary, you have been pushing your parabolic theory for several months, sometimes several times a day. If you are wrong, it will be time to retire even though you are already paving the way for the possibility that you are proven to be wrong. Your credibility will be in the trash can along with dozens of “right for a while” analysts. On the other hand, if you are correct, it will produce a gold mine of talk show interviews for you for the rest of your life. If you are right, you might want quit while you are a ahead and bask in the glow of being one of the smartest analysts, ever.

  55. Don

    75% of stocks are below their respective 50 SMAs and now 51% are below their 200 SMAs. The “slingshot” move is in jeopardy unless things smarten up by the end of this week.

    1. Gary Post author

      The Nasdaq and semi’s already completed the slingshot with a test of the all time highs. The slingshot is done.

      1. Bluebellkid

        “The slingshot is done.”

        All I can say is WOW!
        I will say this all those that bought into the “dangerous to be on the sidelines” mantra did have an opportunity to get out break even so kudos for that!

        1. espresso

          Attachment

          Starting to look like a dead cat bounce versus a slingshot… except if the low today holds, the S&P 500 bounced neatly off the intraday low last month to the intraday high a few days ago.

      2. Don

        What?? “The slingshot is done”. What is that supposed to mean? Are we going back down before doing the 10000 thing for the Nasdaq? Confused now.

  56. Jim Dandy

    Every single time it looks like the wheels are coming off, it has been the best opportunity to load up on stocks. Today is probably a great time to add to our long holdings?

  57. Gary Post author

    Gold is probably starting the whipsaw phase. Remember there is almost always a very convincing bounce that draws in longs too early before the second leg down.

  58. Americano

    ” March of the Mayflower ” ?

    Loving this month so far lol.

    Huge personal announcement regarding Bitcoin coming Saturday.

  59. Spanky

    Well, the miners are finally acting like we have been wishing for 10 years–actually rallying while the SM plunges.

    I truly pray that the low, at least for the miners, is near or in. The HUI needs to retake its 200 and 600 dmas pronto!

  60. 1970confused

    A convincing 2 week bounce in the stock market to draw in new longs then BAM!! Down she goes a good 500 point beating today to whipsaw everyone….get them nice and confused, right everybody???

    1. Spanky

      I’ll take it, but how can you not be a little weary. Gary called for whipsaws and so far he is dead on.

  61. primetime

    At times like this it is hard to sit here and bite the tongue. It becomes so comical watching the panic, hypocrisy, nonsense, and crystal ball rhetoric on this blog. On top of that you must tolerate small minded, self-centered, ego maniacs like Jesus! The spewing of lofty, lengthy 10 year projections and future grandeur and then it all changes on the drop of the hat without a contributing event?

    My risk tolerance has allowed me to remain static in my portfolio today, however I wanted to give credit to all those that have the patience and resolve to fight FOMO. Congrats and a much better buying opportunity probably awaits, just ask the know it alls and their stupid little charts.

    1. Gary Post author

      If I’m not mistaken you are 100% long leveraged stock market positions in the challenge so you seem to think stocks are going up???

      1. primetime

        Of course I am, you have beaten me over the head for months about stocks and 10,000 and such. It does not need repeated. Therefore, in the contest leveraged and also heavily leveraged in stocks in personal account with a lot a real money.

  62. mustang sally

    Howdy everybody: As my friend Nada is not here to update my chart, thought I would just remind everybody of the mabel marker dust 29.50. As anyone with an eye can see that 29,50 is the line in the sand. Once they lose it look out the slingshot will be in dust and jdst.

    Watchin the line
    MS

    1. Bluebellkid

      Welcome back mustang sally! Nada was looking for you a couple of weeks ago but you didn’t show. Nada had a death in the family (not sure who) so for the moment is out of pocket.

      1. mustang sally

        Dear Andy: If they can keep it below 29.50 , could be a rally. above 29.50 forget it

        So here is my update makers, it appears the miners are leading the way down, hgd 10.00 is done , and 29,50 is on the verge, gold has not come close to 1260, so for you gold bugs red flags are up, miners always lead in this case down.

        MS

        MS

        1. Andy

          lol are you ever going to understand that charting a 3x fund that tracks daily percentage moves means nothing?

  63. onerobot

    Christian Thanks man ! I’m goin get one ! Throw him in to the sand box now and then…, play with trolls and their Tonkas . George ” Smash ! ” LOL !

  64. Gary Post author

    Not always but very often the day gold confirms a left translated cycle is the day the whipsaws begin. It convinces traders that the bottom occurred as a brief undercut, but it’s too early for gold to have completed a final DCL just yet. It needs to produce one more lower low first.

    1. Spanky

      Is it possible that we just had a stretched daily cycle (which is why the miners were so poor)? And today is actually the DCL?

  65. Cybo33

    This is unsettling. I didn’t think we were going to see anything like this. I have 10% now deployed in Sept and Jan calls.

    I know I have time but what the heck is this all about? And what does it mean the slingshot is done?

    There is more than one question in there and I feel nauseous.

  66. 0hio

    Slingshot is done!
    Wow, it was a dead cat bounce and not a sling shot. Gary behaving like his metals blunder in 2016 Sept. Soon he will be changing his tune regarding ” 10k piece of cake” theory.

    1. Gary Post author

      You’re kidding right?

      Yes we got caught in the election night reversal. Many people panicked and bailed at the bottom and cancelled their subscription.

      Want to know what happened after that?

      We went from only being up 50% in the metal portfolio to now being up over 200% in the metal portfolio.

      How stupid was it for the dumb money to panic at the bottom? How much did they cost themselves in missed profits by letting their emotions control them?

      A losing trade isn’t the end of the world. It is possible to recover and go on to big gains … as I’ve just shown.

  67. jeyragusa

    Hi Gary,

    I do agree with your most likely scenario for SM – i.e. a parabolic move. I do think though that this time, for the first time in this bull market, we may see a W bottom instead of a V. If you look at the long term history of the stock market, a W is more traditional. Anyway, if we close at the lows of the day again today (for the 3rd day in a row), I would say that odds do favor a retest of the lows at the 200DMA.

    p.s. I have been investing for 20+ years so I get a kick out of posters who panic on a 2-5-10% down move……heh.

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes a W is certainly possible. Three days ago I certainly wouldn’t have put money on it.

  68. mrtommifunn

    Just my observations:
    S & P. Its not out of the woods yet and the the ‘buying on weakness’ is starting to group within the money flow. 200ma really could do with breaking rather than just testing. If that was the bottom; is what we are seeing now an early hlaf cycle low commencing? I’m not saying to buy , im saying the wait.
    Silver – There is a mega tea cup formed all the way back to the 1970’s. im only looking for buys on silver but need to wait for the current bottom to come in mid march.
    Gold- simliar to silver in to wait for the bottom in mid march.
    Oil. It seems be be going left translated out of its DCL which might suggest its high of 66xx was its high as it goes down into its YCL. $55 or lower is perfectly possible.

  69. Spanky

    It’s amazing. The reversal in gold started right after the pit close. Utter noise is all today was.

  70. roadrunner

    @ mustang sally. nice of you to drop by. i believe you entered garys challenge…or online bingo as you called it. unless you have made changes did you not go 100% in DUST or JDST? have you made any money or are you still underwater? i think your buy was above $30 so in the last 8 months following the mabel markers one would have had 100% of their capital in DUST, which has produced a loss overall in 8 months. I am thinking that hasn’t been a very good use of capital. I think Gary is up close to 100% in the challenge and he isn’t even the leader…or top 5.

    1. mustang sally

      Mr. Road runner: You are right, not good at all, but as Gary says this is a year long race, remember that Mable Markers are frequency markers, or as some same pivot points, it does not tell me how long it will pivot, so I wait for the slingshot.

      MS

  71. Pennystocks

    Hello Gary , I just want to clarify. On one of your earlier posts you stated that no one in the challenge bought near the bottom except you , That is definately not accurate as I bought SOXL @ $127.50 when the sky was falling . With complete respect for your trading abilities, I just wanted to be accurate . BTW I am leading in the challenge .

    Thanks

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes you are still in the lead.

      Although I have to say something looks very suspicious about the RLOG trade. If I didn’t know better I would say someone pulled a very successful pump and dump scam on that one. Not saying it was you by any means, and if you win I will certainly award you the prize.

      But next year there won’t be anymore penny stocks allowed in the challenge so we can avoid this potential problem.

      I probably should have foreseen this before we began but it’s too late to change the rules now.

      1. Pennystocks

        It was a hot sector play at the time .The SHIPPERS were all going up at the same time…….. DCIX, RLOG ,DRYS etc. that is just part of the arena we live/trade in dude .DCIX WENT UP OVER 1500 % back then I wish I bought that instead . Lol

        Thanks

        1. Gary Post author

          It was the immediate reversal the very next day and the perfectly timed exit exactly on the rally day that is suspicious.

          I think 99.999% of traders would not have exited on the first day of a rally, but in this instance if they didn’t the rally evaporated the very next day.

          1. Pennystocks

            That is why I am oo.oo1 % and leading the challenge . : ) That was actually the fifth but most powerful day of the rally . I was content to get out @ $1.12. I missed 90 cents upside on that one it went to $2 plus that last day .

          2. Bluebellkid

            Then you should be able to duplicate that type of trade more often, right? Or did you have insider info?? RLOG is now on the pink sheets at 0.0125.

        2. Pennystocks

          Just a sad ,accusatory and apparently Jealous old man that bluebellgramps is . I have more productive things to do wih my time . Goodnight

          1. primetime

            BlueBellKid,
            You ever noticed how difficult it is to talk to these kids who only know an electronic form of communication. They become so empowered when they can say and do what they want without looking you in the eye. Have a nice night.

          2. primetime

            @Pennystocks,
            If no parabolic move, no 10,000 Nasdaq possibly 20,000 and no 500 JNUG and this measly slingshot call, your winning subscription is greatly losing its value. HA

          3. Pennystocks

            Primetime, your another accusatory jealous and in your case ignorant troll ,THAT NO ONE WAS TALKING TO AND DON,T KNOW HOW TO MIND YOUR BUSINESS .and clearly has no clue how I have invested up until this point . I am only talking to Gary nobody else so mind your own business jealous troll .You are dismissed ! Goodnight .

  72. jacob2

    Not the end of the bull but the SM yearly high is in the rear view mirror. The cover story: rising rates, rising inflation and a trade war. Compared to everything else gold and cash not looking shaby.

    1. vin

      What are you saying? it is not another last buying opportunity to load up? Come on, it is already March 1 and 10k is a piece of cake, probably in March. Gary is always right. Are you saying he is not right this time?

      There might be a small change in the plan but the BULL stays intact. It could very well be 2020 March instead of 2018 March. But, don’t lose hope. It is coming. Vertically parabola it will be.

      1. jake

        A prediction of the market that plays out in one or two ways that are diametrically opposed, either there’s a extremely bearish parabolic blow off top this spring or there’s a very bullish 10 year melt up.
        S-mart M-arketing T-rick.

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