63 thoughts on “I TOLD YOU SO

  1. Jakegint

    Haha, I love it when you gloat! Especially because you do it so rarely, despite ample temptation. Well, it’s well deserved today, so carry on, sir!


  2. Robert

    Lol its too early to say I told u so Gary. You can say that once SPY regains an ATH. As for gold to me its looking like ur short cycle may play out again. The miners have almost lost all gains that is saying gold is prbly heading back to 1200s this year

  3. Autobahn

    On CNBC they are leaning more towards your 60% scenario. Rally then retest.
    Do you think it’s off the table now?

    1. Gary Post author

      I think we are in the final parabolic phase. The market won’t act the same during this phase as it does during the middle part of a bull. So no I’m not in that camp. I think the recovery is going to be violent and anyone who missed the bottom is going to quickly get left behind.

      1. ocram

        since you are in vein of making bets….if you should pick a month where the final parabolic phase will end…which month would you choose ?
        And do you think miners will crash along with the stock market or they are already crashing now?

      2. Autobahn

        Cramer just said that on this bounce “we’re gonna lose buyers not gain”
        So he is in 60% scenario camp.
        This is a challenge now.
        It will be interesting to watch .
        Im with Gary

  4. ras

    Indeed you did, Gary! There was ample time for entry until 2:30 pm today, close to early jan price. A complete retrace. Buying is easy. Selling is the difficult part.

  5. MrBurns

    It’s just the first day out of a major drop, I’ll send you a burrito coupon if it gives a “V” recovery Gary.

  6. GMoney

    It is far too early to declare this market event over. Today was a text book dead cat. The fall out from the VIX termination and the underwater leverage have not yet manifested themselves yet.

    1. Gary Post author

      I tried to warn you this was coming, but you wouldn’t listen. Just like the bitcoin monkeys wouldn’t listen.

      This is the 17th time of this bull market. How many times must I do this before people start paying attention?

  7. jeremyl

    What are your thoughts on the metals Gary? Could today have been the bottom of the DCL in gold? Weve lost about 70% of the rally in the miners from the rally out of the ICL.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m out of metals and don’t have any desire to trade that market right now because I can’t tell if the dollar is bouncing out of a DCL or ICL. If it’s an ICL then the short cycle scenario comes into play on gold.

      1. jeremyl

        Thanks Gary. If the dollar is rallying out of an ICL DO YOU anticipate gold dropping below the Dec low?

  8. cdntrader

    Well its far too early to claim victory yet..but I did al ot of buying today as we should have a decent bounce. Now the real test will be how quickly we get back to previous highs..if we do it within a month or so then I am in the Gary camp..if not then watch out.
    In terms of metals I thought Gary was bullish and expecting them to go up with the general sm..confused there. I am expecting a drop to 1280ish within 2-3 weeks then a good bounce.

      1. Nada

        With the massive volume flows into the market over the last two days, I think the last thing we can pay attention to is the BOW/SOS report. With that said, watch it be the day it means something, lol

        1. Gary Post author

          An undercut would be normal, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it if we are in the parabolic phase like I think we are.

          1. DaZeD

            If you ignore the overnight futures move, you could potentially say that we saw a double bottom in some of the indices today. Do you think it would be legitimate to ignore the asian market futures data?

  9. carlvan

    Gary, again, thank you and congrats. Even if the market pulls back as some are expecting, I can say that I never had before a 100 points gain with NQ for the same trade (and on the same day!). I have a stop to protect part of this gain and, if market pulls back, I will buy again. But when one looks at the daily candle on the SM indexes today, the signature is clear and powerfull to make that pull back option unlikely. Will see.

  10. JJHarmen

    I don’t understand these inverse volatility products like XIV and SVXY. How can they be destroyed by just one moderately hard day down to the point where they are down 60 to 90 percent in a single day? How does the math work and why isn’t the SEC all over this scam ? Anyone have some insight?

    1. m0ntana

      All leveraged ETFs are scam in that matter. Same thing can happen to TQQQ or JNUGs,. Basically they facilitate trader’s gambling addiction with nothing underneath to back the security. Its a wake up call

  11. DaZeD

    Basically the expensive lesson that I’ve learned is to not think I’m smarter than Gary, even though I fail to heed that advice every time that I trade and try to finesse the market.

    p.s. I listened just jumped the gun on my trades… which still equals wrong.

    1. Christian

      Don’t be too hard on yourself Dazed :/ it took me 5 years before I finally started to catch on and found my groove.

      1. DaZeD

        Yeah… the thing is that in my day job I deal with doctoral students and the thing that irks me the most is that they don’t listen to me and think they’re smarter than me when I’m giving them advice. This is the same thing… although I normally tell them that you do have to end up making mistakes for yourself to learn

  12. Christian

    #itoldyouso #naz10000 Lol! Well done Gary 👍🏻

    Folks, if you were courageous enough to pick up a few shares yesterday and possibly tomorrow if we get an undercut low, then you are one step ahead of the herd 😉 No small potatoes!

  13. earthkitten

    Thanks Gary. Added to my UDOW at the open. Wasn’t easy,
    but took your advice on emotion. Glad I did. Thanks again
    for your spot-on analysis.

    1. Gary Post author

      We aren’t completely out of the woods yet. There could still be an undercut later this week or next week, but we are close enough at this point.

      Once the final YCL Is confirmed then we start the next leg of the rally to 10,000.

    1. Gary Post author

      Definitely a possibility. But it’s also very possible that the market just takes off and leaves everyone sitting at the station.

      If we are in the parabolic phase the market may not behave the same as it did during the middle phase of the bull.

      1. jacob2

        That really would surprise me. After all the carnage can’t imagine any kind of sustained upward move so soon. Personally favor a new long drawn out trading range between 2500 and say 2700 on the s&p. We will soon find out.

        1. Bluebellkid

          We need for the indices to regain the 50 day and close above it Friday afternoon and they are close right now. Should they not be able to get back above and stay then I will bail on the positions I took today. A close below would signal more weakness ahead.

          1. Christian

            NAZ 100 Futures already have and are currently sitting right in between the 50DMA and 50EMA with the Stochastic/RSI indicator turning back up from oversold.

            The Chart looks rather constructive.. now is not the time to bail but to add to any pre-existing position, if given the opportunity.

        2. jacob2

          Fake out rally day? Everybody’s popping corks. Raising the flag and declaring victory, premature.

  14. zbigkid

    I don’t get the “I told you so.” What happened over the past week was not any evidence of any sort of ‘bottoming’ action whatsoever. Liquidity has dried up completely, and since nearly 100% of all trading is based on Algo’s and computers, what we actually witness was not anything at all emotional. Its a really false signal to conclude that what is happening right now is like years ago when humans and emotions were involved.
    Rather the conditions that existed to cause these algo’s to sell, have not only not gone away, but they have triggered a series of cascading changes to the entire financial system, which is based on many variables, the most risky of which is what is happening with bonds and interest rates.

    These algo’s are point blank stupid. Humans are only so smart in terms of programming, but what they cannot do is re-compensate quickly to account for the sea change that is happening within bond markets, debt, interest rates and the gargantuan derivatives complex. Algo’s cannot adapt. There is no AI there whatsoever. Its only pattern recognition. AI is total fiction. Its all human based programming, that is pattern recognition only. Its algo’s versus dumb algo’s. Algo’s have no ability to interpret all the variables and the human notions of what decisions are made on capital deployment, debt decisions, and so on.

    What you did get a taste of is this. Stocks being driven entirely by algo’s are like tiny dingy’s (small boats) in a sea. Sure the captains of these dingy’s can now use GPS, weather forecasting, and such to computer drive their boats/dingy’s. The problem is these algo’s absolutely can’t do shit for the tsunami’s. They cannot navigate them no matter how they are ‘programmed.’ tsunamis sink them. Period. What’s happening with interest rates and debt therefore is they are the tsunami, that no amount of programmed trading (or the ship analogy of trying to navigate the impossibly devastating wave) can navigate. These algo’s and the funds behind them are totally screwed. So much so, that they are all trying to figure out how to ‘get out’ before the next guy does, so they can keep their capital in tact. But they are all so far away from any shore, they are totally screwed. It hits the little guys the hardest first like these ‘vol’ funds, and VIX ETN’s. Make no mistake though, the other funds are all shitting their pants. Pensions, Mutal funds, 401K managers, you name it. They are all trying to find a way out before the market (algo’s) go awol, and simply collapse everything. Not an if. Only when.

    Liquidity going to nothing and ever decreasing to next to zero in the days leading up to yesterday, is not a condition that has been addressed or ‘cleared.’ It is a symptom though of a much much larger problem.

    You’ve been warned, that what happened yesterday, and last week is barely the beginning. There is absolutely nothing that can stop these algo’s from program trading the market downward. Exchange Circuit breakers are totally useless. (ie. when market is down 7%). When liquidity dries up like this, there is no market making ability for exchanges. Liquidity can be poured in By the Fed, and their proxies via the big banks and try to ‘arrest’ the situation, but they burn through billions doing this. Its very temporary. The algo’s just eat it up, and then resume their downward actions. They (human managers) are literally ‘hoping’ they can make the algo’s make this all keep going back up. Hope is not a plan. Not a strategy. The FED has no feasible exit plan. They never have, and never will.

    Keep in mind, the FED has told us they were not only withdrawing liquidity, and not rolling over debt from their hugely negative balance sheet. They are simultaneously raising interest rates. That trajectory is up. if they try to suddenly change it, no amount of jawboning will keep the dollar from crashing, nor will it prevent china from stopping buying our debt. They have stopped big time, and that is a long term decision, no matter what happens to the tiny by comparison US stock market, versus the global debt markets.

    The Fed has absolutely no choice but to raise rates. None. If they don’t keep at it, and even go faster on the rate of increase, the dollar is going to go belly up so freakin fast, you’re head will spin right off your neck.

    Whats been set in motion has never been experienced before. I dont give a crap that Art Cashin has been around in these markets for 50 years. He’s clueless too. He’s flying by old rules, where there were no program traders, no algo’s, no derivatives, and certainly not the gargantuan levels of global debt that exists today. There are no historical parallels to this folks.
    Gary can say “I told you so” all he wants, but that doesn’t mean you won’t get your financial clocked cleaned. There are forthcoming events, that Gary wont be able to wrap his mind around, and he ain’t going to be able to save any of you.
    If you all think you have algo’s/HFT figured out, you are absolute total fools. You’re playing with fire, and worse you don’t even know it. These ‘quants’ dont even know what to do, or what to expect, bc they have been the beneficiaries of $2.5 trillion in global QE every year since 2009, and even more than that in the early years. $2.5 trillion is just the current amounts. Its all going away. They can’t keep doing it, because the debt they’ve created by doing it, has grown exponentially since 2009. Exponential functions do very nasty things on the downside.

    If you want to know who knows whats coming, listen between the lines to Alan Greenspan.

      1. RTTPD

        ” So, you’re saying its time to invade Iran? ”

        Give him some credit though…..

        There will be no Skynet or Terminator robots in our lifetime – it’s all an imaginary fairytale cooked up by culls like musk and hawking to scare folks. I never believed in their concept of AI either.

    1. roadrunner

      Seriously though, the worldwide debt situation has been known for years. The concerns you have raised have been known for years. And yet here we are. certainly the debt implosion will happen, the question is when. is this it? or can they keep the music playing and the market marches on?

  15. earthkitten

    Zbig. You worry too much. If you can’t handle the market,
    take your cabbage to the bank & get you some CD’s. The
    market has recently broken out & your worrying self
    is going to get left behind.

  16. Anthonyo

    Tuesday’s intra-day chart of DJIA………..

    Oh My, Is that a Bly?….
    …of an INVERSE H&S I see in the end right before close of the market??
    And it looks like the trough to peak around 200 points, too…

    1. Anthonyo

      Futures down a steady minus -200 points on Dow and similar % down on SPX and NASDAQ…

      There is a chance that Wave 4 up is done and Wave 5 down my have started??

      We will see how it opens in morning session.

  17. Alexandru Popovici

    Gold is likely to set its YCL under 1238 around Mar21 (rate hike FOMC) because:
    – COT report ultra-bearish on EUR suggests dixy is in a new intermediary cycle,
    – miners are too oversold and gold will get too when USDJPY accelerates upside tomorrow (after CHFJPY sets its DCL) –> hence their intermediary cycles are…left-translated.

    Gold and miners will begin their new daily cycles to a lower high when UJ moves down to HCL sometime next week. Then, as UJ moves back higher, gold/miners will produce failed daily cycles and things will be clear at that point: gold/miners to undercut by Mar21 and set YCLs.

  18. Gary Post author

    Gold just depends on whether the dollar has completed a DCL or an ICL. I’ve been expecting one more leg down to test that bull market trend line in the dollar. That would release gold for at least a test of the baby bull high.

    However one thing that bothers me and has me on the sidelines in the metals market is that ICL’s in the stock market often occur in conjunction with an ICL in either the dollar or euro. Stocks just made an ICL. I have to wonder if that means the dollar also made an ICL and will not test the trend line during this cycle.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Indeed. Gold’s left-translation in its IC depends on whether the dollar set its ICL.
      On the other hand, it is also a perfect timing match for USX being in a new IC:
      – up to DCH on Feb28 (US gdp report),
      – then DCL around March jobs report –> 30 days into March 9 from Jan 25,
      – then up with DCH on Mar20/21 on day 7 or 8 shaking 200dma –> ICH for USX and YCL for gold/miners.

  19. Mac

    I know most people here use TA or cycles, but do people understand WHY the market had a correction? As most already know TA won’t help when you get a market turn which is why it is critical to understand why the market freaked out. Zbigkid touched on the algos, but they are rules based and only reacted to data which was viewed as negative by the programmers. Unless you understand what the data was that caused that reaction then you are operating with nothing more than historical charts that can’t predict major market turns. I’ve said it before but it is crucial for people to understand the relationship between interest rates, currencies and all asset classes and what makes those correlations change. It is also imperative to understand the yield curve and it’s relationship to the USD and what factors and participants drive the short end vs the long end. It’s not rocket science and something that can be easily learned. Most people can do well in a trending market but unfortunately can’t anticipate major trend changes and therefore end up giving it all back or worse. Do yourself a favor and spend the time learning the WHYs, if for no other reason then to supplement your TA.

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