308 thoughts on “SLINGSHOT IN PROGRESS – “I TOLD YOU SO” 17

  1. Gary Post author

    This is the 17th I told you so of this bull market. No matter how many times I try to guide people through these intermediate cycle lows, most just never listen. The same thing will happen during number 18. Human nature never changes, and most humans are fated to keep making them same mistake over and over never learning the lesson.

  2. desertsun999

    Vin, Do yourself a favor and take a class in reading comprehension!

    What do you think happens when the currency in a country that does not manufacture anything for themselves anymore drops from 103.82 to 89 in a little over a year? You start to get inflation, my friend.
    Lower dollar, less buying power, inflation
    Vin’s reply;
    So, Americans stopped “manufacture anything for themselves” a year ago?
    And, before that they “manufacture(d) anything for themselves” LOL!

  3. Bluebellkid

    We got the confirmation/follow thru today on day four of an attempted rally (which is text book by the way) and just to keep things in perspective know that not all follow-throughs work.
    After market corrections in 2010, 2011, 2015 and even 2016, the first follow-through that took place after the major indexes plunged thru their 50-day moving averages in a vertical-like fashion tended to fail. In other words, the indexes immediately declined in the following days and weeks and undercut the low of the first up day in the new market rally. It may be the second or third follow thru that offers the best opportunities to make money in stocks.
    And don’t forget this: No major market bottom emerged in the absence of a genuine follow-through.

    1. Christian

      For the life of me I don’t know why you were trying to SHORT the market yesterday :/
      I almost said something but decided against it, didn’t think it would get through.

      Also.. FAZ brought up a good point on yesterday’s thread and I’m interested in your perspective because right now I feel like you’re wasting one heck of an opportunity. It seems like you’re always on the fence and looking for a reason not to pull the trigger.. sounds like self-sabotage to me :/

      “Bluebell, if your volume criteria AND Gary’s work have both confirmed, then why the emphasis on caution – what did I misunderstand.. ? Thanks.” — FAZ

      1. Bluebellkid

        Yesterday we hadn’t gotten the follow thru so thought until we do the markets are in a downtrend and the characteristics of a downtrend are strength in the mornings and then giving it all back by the close so I was thinking if the markets are weak at the opening then that will just get worse as the day wears on. I was wrong. I was buying today. It is hard for me to just buy at any level. I like to look for entries associated with moving averages or the middle Bollinger Band, or a stock breaking out of a base and buying at the pivot. You have to remember this is my life savings/retirement money and I cant just throw caution to the wind. And I do have other accounts that I can “play” with.

  4. DaZeD

    Hey Christian. Are you still waiting for oil to reach around 63, 63.5 as the entry point for shorting, probably coinciding with the top in the dollar and do you have any comments on bonds? The COT looks really imbalanced as well.

    1. Christian

      Hey Dazed! Not sure what to tell you about BONDS but I don’t think they’re gonna have any effect on the Market weirdly enough, and as far as OIL.. I’m waiting for it to reach my original target and will re-assess before I pull the trigger again.

      I exited last Friday and picked up some JNUG instead.. it looked (and has been) more promising 🙂

        1. DaZeD

          I think I like that point a little more than my own point. I have it drawn between 62.50 and 65 with a line drawn down to 50. The one thing that I was struggling with is that the 10 dma is at 62 so that’s really barely above it

        2. Anthonyo

          Christian,

          Could da bounce go to $67 recent top instead of stopping cold at resistance band around $62?
          And then plunge to $55 area.

      1. DaZeD

        Attachment

        I actually shorted oil a few times and profited off of it… but kind of stupid and not worth the time to do it (because it’s way more profitable to hit a trending move and insignificant relative to everything else). I was thinking the same spot as you though and thought it might coincide with the euro top. See the figure for bonds. Specs have a record short position… Probably needs a double top in rates to confirm the bottom for bonds. Long-term there is no way interest rates can go up if you look at the debt the government is printing.

        1. Gary Post author

          I would argue that debt matters to you and me, and states that don’t have a printing press. But to governments that can print any amount of money, interest rates are kind of irrelevant. The only thing that matters is whether or not they break the currency in the process of printing their way out of debt.

          1. Bluebellkid

            Right Gary, debt doesn’t matter. I heard that earnings didn’t matter either (Dot Com bubble) and real estate prices always go up (Real Estate bubble). How did those turn out? Debt does matter and will eventually bring the system down. We have thousands of years of history that prove that.

          2. Gary Post author

            If you want to look at history you need only go back and see how we paid for the Vietnam war.

            “The only thing that matters is whether or not they break the currency in the process of printing their way out of debt.”

            I’ve been saying for years now that the end game would be played out in the currency markets. Will they break the currency or not. Volcker took it right to the edge and then saved it. Will they do the same this time or will we really have a massive currency collapse?

            Either way the problem isn’t going to be resolved in the bond market it will be in the currency market as they print and print to keep the bond market afloat.

          3. DaZeD

            Attachment

            I agree that the US government can never go bankrupt in USD unlike what a lot of skeptics say. Despite this, the rising rates are coinciding heavily with extreme positioning in the bond market on rising rates as well as an inflating stock market bubble. This suggests bond prices in the longer-term will be down. The speculative positioning is not just in long-term bonds but also in shorter term interest rates. See the eurodollar contract positioning.

      2. Bluebellkid

        I am on the cooking team at my church so was busy all day Friday preparing a gumbo for the Youth. On Monday’s you will notice I am not here and that is because we cook for the elderly, shutins etc., so I missed the opportunity to get into the miners then. I completely missed the reversal in GDX.

  5. desertsun999

    Gary___As I’ve explained before, interest rates don’t cause recessions. Inflation causes recessions. Specifically energy inflation. The price of gold or copper could go to the moon and it wouldn’t affect consumer spending. Energy and food inflation on the other hand cause consumers to tighten their belts and cut down on discretionary spending, stalling the economy.
    ___________________________________________________________

    Gary, I copied this paragraph from a Schiff article. Because we have never been in the type of situation that we currently find ourselves in I don’t think your interest rate outlook holds water. I believe that this is the correct outlook.

    While investors are justifiably focused on what may be the opening crescendo of a long overdue sell-off in stocks, there is not, as of yet, as feverish a discussion of the parallel sell-offs in bonds and the U.S. dollar, which have been underway for at least a year and a half in bonds and 14 months for the dollar. I contend that this should be widely understood as the root causes of the jittery Dow, and are ultimately far more important. A continued decline in the dollar and bonds holds the potential to ignite inflation while increasing mortgage rates, borrowing costs, and federal deficits. These developments would strike at the very heart of the economic foundation that has supported the country since the Financial Crisis of 2008, and threaten to push the economy into a recession that the Fed may be powerless to confront.

    1. Gary Post author

      Are you trying to convince me that Schiff can’t be wrong?

      History is pretty clear. Inflation causes recessions not interest rates. Rising interest rates are a response to rising inflation.

  6. Bluebellkid

    Speaking of debt. According to the CBO the unfunded liabilities in this country are in excess of $100 Trillion. This is what the government is going to have to pay out in SS, Medicare, and Medicaid over the next 30+ years as all of us Baby Boomers enter retirement. To put that into perspective:
    $1000 one dollar bills tightly stacked is 4 inches tall
    A million dollars tightly stacked is 333 feet tall or a little over a football field
    A trillion dollars tightly stacked is 63,000 miles high
    A hundred trillion dollars tightly stacked would reach to the moon – 25 times
    That is from Richard Maybury (Early Warning Report).

    1. Jake

      “I believe LBJ took money from the Social Security Trust Fund to help pay for the Vietnam War.”

      There is no “Trust Fund”, it’s a lie.

      The only thing in the social security “trust fund” are “special issue” government bonds. The fund has been robbed for a very long time, each and every year. The money that is left over after payouts has always been spent “off budget”, and placed in the “fund” are IOU’s.

      This debt is NOT included in the national debt.

      They are non negotiable bonds and therefore are simply sitting in filing cabinets in an office. Worthless IOU’s that can only ever be repaid by further printing or taxation.

      For any of us to even use the term “trust fund” is laughable and just makes us accomplices in the lie.

      It’s amazing that the public is for the most part absolutely clueless to this fact.

      1. Bluebellkid

        ‘This debt is NOT included in the national debt. ‘
        That is correct and is part of the unfunded liabilities mentioned in the preceding message.

        1. Gary Post author

          Actually Nixon took us off the gold standard so the Fed could print freely. In fact we were already printing to pay for the war and other countries knew we were. They tried to exchange paper for our gold. Nixon either had to give away our gold or close the gold window and take us off the gold standard. He opted for keeping our gold and severing the dollar from its gold backing. And that’s how the inflation started in the 70’s and early 80’s.

          We are doing the same thing now. The difference is that everyone else is also. So the currencies aren’t collapsing against other currencies. However we are getting massive inflation. It’s mostly showing up in global stock markets. And now in our modern markets where governments routinely intervene I have to wonder if they might be able to prevent the inflation from getting into the commodity markets like it did in 2008.

          The last time they stopped it by crashing the metals market. With gold going down it was unlikely the rest of the commodity market would spiral upwards and out of control. So the inflation instead flowed into the stock market where they wanted it.

          I have to wonder if they can repeat this trick again. If so we need to be careful in the metals market in case we start to see the middle of the night attacks start up again.

          1. BeachandBiscuits

            I agree Gary, but as you allude in the currency end game even the manipulation won’t be enough.

            Have you considered looking at industrial metals and maybe agriculture commodities (as a basket) as a potential bubble, or at least huge inflation area?

            In the late 70s and early 80s the inflation drove farmland through the roof (for those times) and also many ag commodities I believe.

          2. Gary Post author

            I’m not familiar with the ag markets, so I don’t trade them.

            My tools work best in the stock market and metals market. That’s where I focus. I really have no need to branch off into areas I know nothing about.

            We will make plenty of money just trading the ETF’s in the stock market and metals market.

  7. ocram

    Gary,
    so if I have correclty understand you think that gold will hit or break the resistence of the baby bull and then it will return down until the fomc meeting.
    What will happen then according to you? It will commence the REAL uptrend after the fomc meeting or it will still go up and down without a real direction?

    1. bginvestor

      We have a confirmed gold daily cycle, and broke the cycle trend line with conviction.

      I’m in it, because you never know, this may go on up further than anyone expects.. I bought at the swing low, so I now have plenty of margin to get out if the cycle does what Gary describes..

      That’s why I like cycle analysis, gets u in low. I try and play the GOLD cycles as much as possible right now, because it looks like it can break out of the consolidation any month in 2018.

    1. Gary Post author

      The gold cycle shouldn’t last that long. Gold will bottom when the next intermediate rally in the dollar tops. Once we get a bottom (dollar) in the next 10-15 days then I’d say we have 4-8 weeks for the dollar to rally before it rolls over and starts the next leg down. That 4-8 weeks would be the period where gold moves down into its next ICL.

  8. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    The correction seemed worse than it actually was because we went for such a long time with almost no volatility. But in the big picture, the correction was so mild it couldn’t even push the 5 week RSI to oversold before turning back up.

    I’m pretty sure we will have more volatile markets from here on out, but the correction did what it needed to do. It got everyone on the wrong side of the market and created the fuel for the next phase of the bubble. Many will now try to fight the market all the way up, and many fortunes will be lost trying to short the bubble phase. Eventually everyone will give up and go long, convinced that stocks are a sure thing and that the Fed is omnipotent. That produces the panic phase during the last 4-6 weeks. That’s what we saw in bitcoin in December. That’s when it’s possible to see a move from 10,000 to 20,000.

  9. zbigkid

    Your “I told you so’s” are going to be interesting, as the stock market sell off continues into March 21st, and then when The FED offers no ‘put’ under the market as in the past, the sell off continues well past the 21st.

    Amazing that anyone would use an “I told you so” in the first place, but its the height of hubris to do so under such a very tiny timeframe.

    1. Christian

      “.. as the stock market sell off continues into March 21st, and then when The FED offers no ‘put’ under the market as in the past, the sell off continues well past the 21st.”

      Right — so you’re SHORT then, correct? I would short the heck out of this Market if I were you, without hesitation 🙂 Sarcasm intended.

    2. Gary Post author

      LOL clearly you ignored me again, got caught short and are now stubbornly trying to convince yourself that you aren’t the dumb money and that the market will turn and go back down to rescue your position.

      1. Gary Post author

        One really didn’t even need a working knowledge of cycles to see this one coming. All you needed was a subscription to sentimentrader to track the smart money/dumb money indexes and position yourself with the smart money.

        1. Christian

          Every INDICATOR worth its salt is telling you to buy the F* out of this market and no matter what.. NO MATTER WHAT I SAYS.. some ‘Negative Nancy’ has got to rain (or better yet, crap) on the parade, LMAO!

          I’m gonna go ahead and give ZBIGKID a +1 for being entertaining as Hell!!

    3. Dang

      That’s the thing about “I told you so’s” they usually refer to something that has already happened. Gary has been spot-on when compared to events that have already happened.

      My account reflects that!

  10. MrBurns

    NYSI appears to have bottomed today, remained at -120 that it hit yesterday. This was the deepest drop since November 2016 where it hit -319.

    Basically, a shit-ton of overbought sentiment has melted, and based on past occurrences, if it goes up to +400 to +600, SPX has the potential of new highs.

    Time frame is undetermined.

  11. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    Even after four up days in a row, including today’s monster move the intermediate optix has barely budged from its excessive bearish levels. We’ve got lots and lots of room to the upside before traders are ready to turn complacent again.

    Like I said. The YCL did what it needed to do. It got everyone on the wrong side of the market and created the fuel for the next leg up, which I think will be the parabolic leg.

    1. MrBurns

      How is that Optix calculated, the NYSI I posted above is cumulative NYMO so it lags but works very well.

  12. desertsun999

    I read Schiff’s last book so maybe I’m biased….ha…ha. Here is the deal. On top of all of the above mentioned, inflation, increased borrowing costs, much higher costs to maintain a multi trillion dollar deficit and we are in an unprecedented moment in the history of the markets in which our government is now draining liquidity, or reverse QE, whatever you want to call. How is the market going to overcome that? Remember the old saying, “don’t fight the fed.” Reverse QE is at 20 billion a month right now. In April it goes up to 30 billion a month. In July it goes up to 40 billion a month. In October it goes up to 50 billion a month. I don’t think the market has the wind to its back anymore but the show must go on. We all have front row seats to one of the most fascinating times in the history of the markets. If your forecast plays out I really believe you should consider writing a book because its all been documented right through your website. Fascinating times my friend.

    P.S. I am reposting the link to this utube video again “THIS is How the U.S. Accumulated $21 Trillion in Debt Without COLLAPSING.” Look at the graphs in this video. Although this has been discussed ad nauseam it really hits home when you see the graphs in this video imo. Graph is at the 5 minute mark.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_w3SkWcOQg&t=339s

    1. Gary Post author

      That one is easy.

      It will take years to drain all the liquidity from QE. In the meantime it’s already too late to turn the Titanic around. There’s no stopping the bubble at this point. They needed to be doing reverse QE 5 years ago to have any chance of stopping this thing.

      1. desertsun999

        We will see. I think your really underestimating the invisible hand becoming the disappearing hand.
        Oh, and one other thing about the rising rates. The wealth effect. All of the home owners that have taken out mortgages at historically low interest rates will now see that home equity disappear like a duck in winter. Like I said, we are in unprecedented times.

          1. desertsun999

            Your quote, “As I’ve explained before, interest rates don’t cause recessions. Inflation causes recessions. ” I’m trying to tell you why that old thinking don’t apply to the printing press economy.
            The wealth effect. All of the home owners that have taken out mortgages at historically low interest rates will now see that home equity disappear like a duck in winter.

          2. ziasDad

            bubble is in both stocks and real estate. Many areas are seeing home prices ABOVE where they were at the peak before the financial crisis.

            So will home prices collapse again like they did in 2008-2010?

            Why would home prices collapse if the US continues devaluing its currency which will create inflation? The US has painted itself into a corner and the only way out is to continue printing which will cause prices to go up across the board, housing prices included. No? Please explain why this thinking is wrong and why/how with US national debt way up beyond the stratosphere and NO signs of that ever changing, how can we possibly have anything but inflation?

    2. ziasDad

      There’s a wild card with respect to the huge Federal debt. And that is the possibility of monetizing it. Most people shudder at the thought and respond with, “but Weimar!”

      However, what if they were to monetize it over a long period, say 40 years, 50 years? That would be like 400 or 500 billion per year. That would likely cause inflation, but probably not out of control hyperinflation.

      It seems clear to me that the Federal debt will NEVER get paid off. So what other solution do they have than to monetize it?

  13. DaZeD

    Christian, oil is on FIRE and I doubt it’ll top in 2 days… I’m thinking a double top might be more likely

  14. jacob2

    Asian markets strong tonight. Industrial and gold miners lead the way. Going forward think commodity-sensitive segment of the market (transport, energy, metals and precious metals) will be strong performers. Today’s large and unexpected CPI number has investors in love all around the world. It is Valentine’s Day.

    Hope everybody enjoyed it.

  15. Gary Post author

    LOL about the time Socrates starts calling for the Dow to drop below the 2017 lows that’s when it bottoms.

    It’s a good thing Marty doesn’t have to participate in the challenge because his BS computer can’t seem to get anything right. 🙂

    Although after the fact he’s just like every other newsletter claiming to have called it perfectly.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Teddy must be using the same program. I woud ask him except he disappears every time he makes a 70% losing trade, until the next time it makes a dinky bounce! 🙂
      Armstrong truly is ¨for entertainment purposes only¨.

      1. Nada

        Hipster Ted has been on the wrong side of the trade on every call he has made, so now he has adopted Gary’s viewpoint on just about everything, to avoid looking like a fool.

        Somehow, I think he will find a way to screw that up too. (Bitcoin)

        What I like to call the parrot paradigm is adopted by many here. What’s even more funny is when those who memic, start talking down to other subs. Oh well, such is life.

  16. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    The NDX futures have now completed a higher high, reversing the down trend into the YCL.

  17. x33e

    After a vertical 166 point SPX rally from the lows, the Fear & Greed Index is still at 11 (Extreme Pessimism). The wall of worry is back, and it only took a ten day decline to rebuild. This is not the stubborn persistent optimism associated with the first decline off of a major high. The top callers are still engaging in wishful thinking.

  18. Gary Post author

    The Q’s have rallied 9.5% in the first five days out of the YCL. The initial rally usually runs 10-18 days before the first significant pullback. By significant I mean 1-2%.

        1. Christian

          LOL 😆

          It’s a silly expression Didier that was in reference to current Market conditions. You can google search the meaning if you’re so inclined but I’m sure you have more important things to do.

  19. Gary Post author

    One has to be careful with metals.

    Stocks are used to control the business cycle. As long as the market is propped up it’s virtually impossible to have a recession.

    On the other side of the coin gold is used to control the commodity markets. As long as gold is prevented from getting too high you can’t have a spike in commodity inflation. As I’ve explained before commodity inflation is what destroys the economy and causes recessions.

    Even with the dollar already much lower than it was when gold hit the baby bull high gold is still lower. We are already seeing some degree of suppression in the metals market.

    Why people insist on fighting the government in the metals market instead of participating in the protected stock market is beyond me.

    If one wants to place a little capital in metals trades there’s nothing wrong with that, but the majority should be in the stock market where any manipulation will be in your favor instead of metals where it will always be against you.

    1. Gary Post author

      Today is a perfect example. How in the world can gold be flat and silver be down on a day when the dollar is extremely weak?

      1. alvinheart

        Because Euro Gold and Silver has its own rhythms. It was short term overbought yesterday and is correcting some today.

        1. Gary Post author

          Attachment

          Silver hasn’t even tagged overbought yet on the 5 day RSI. There’s no way silver is down today because its overbought.

          1. Christian

            It is on the hourly, same with the Miners. That upward thrust we saw yesterday isn’t over just yet!

          2. Gary Post author

            I’m not saying the second daily cycle is over yet. I’m saying one has to be careful, when the banksters want the rally to be over it will be over whether the dollar has tagged the trend line or not.

      2. Americano

        EXACTLY Gary. My belief is powers that be USE gold given its elastic supply & unknown inventory to draft the fiat “print forever” scam behind.
        Silver…..I think just get bullied.
        However there is one thing they WANT to go up. Evidenced by OBVIOUS technical dips being averted for up instead over the past several years….stock market.

      3. RTTPD

        Neumeyer has said on numerous numerous occasions that Samsung and apple have a lot of sway to get the bullion banks to hold silver down.
        I believe him.

    2. Christian

      If that opinion holds true Gary then Gold will never make it back up to 1900, let alone 5000 which some have continually tried to predict.

      1. Anthonyo

        IMO, gold will be lucky if it makes it over 1923 previous peak and perhaps top out at 2500-3000 MAX if that.

  20. Americano

    Today is a New Moon. Chinese NYE – NYD tomorrow.

    It looks like Bitcoin’s “Tet Offensive” has started so perhaps 5 figure Mayflower again Wednesday.

    1. Jim Dandy

      You won´t want to hear this, but using the same simple charts that told me $6K bitcoin, tells me where are again close to the area to short that busted parabola bitcon, maybe next week.

      http://schrts.co/5RSXkn

      The second reason is Teddy finally had the balls to pop in here yesterday with a new buy signal on bitcon, and since his track record is 0% winners vs. 100% catastrophic losers, you might take this opportunity to move to the sidelines. You can always buy it back 50% cheaper in a couple months. 🙂

      1. carlvan

        Agree but let’s be fair here: for once he might have made a good call as BTC is higher today than yesterday…though that might be the only day up before a new reversal down

      2. Christian

        I’m surprised Ted even has the balls to show up here anymore when you guys are constantly busting his chops.

        1. Jim Dandy

          lol, he earned it. I´m not sure if you were here when he made 3 back to back, career-ending calls?

          Really it is all in good fun, nobody here knows anything about another, so nothing should ever be taken too seriously.

  21. Anthonyo

    Hold everything!: STOCKS rally failure/reversal this morning.

    Dude that 292 point DJIA drop this morning peak-to-trough after being up above 25,100 (25,112) Dow is NOT GOOD.

    It means it met resistance there and could not hold it and plunged.

    So SPX and the Dow have not closed above their 50-day MA yet.

    Hence, we may not be out of the woods yet on a retest of lows on Friday.

    OIL:

    Oil backing down after “fake Saudi bounce” yesterday. Has a date with $55.

    1. Anthonyo

      STOCKS: An almost 293 point plunge in the Dow from 25,112 to 24,800 in a flash this morning.
      Could not hold its liquor at above 50 day MA of 25,100.

      Is/could a retest of Friday lows again be brewing?

      That’s why I wanted to wait until all major indices had closed above their 50-day MA before I go long again stocks.

        1. Gary Post author

          This what I keep warning against. Buying when your emotions give you the all clear usually means it’s about time for a pullback.

          This is how people lose money on the long side in a rising market. They buy high and then sell for a loss during a normal dip. Repeat this over and over and you end up losing a lot of money during a rally.

          1. alvinheart

            So true, Gary. Whenever I feel safe enough in the markets to buy something mildly extravagent online, the top is usually in. 🙂

        2. carlvan

          indeed, if one looks at the QQQ, it perfectly filled the gap from yesterday, and now, in lower time frames, we can see a mini V-reversal from the low point

  22. Goild

    No big money today, just crumbs.
    And I am going to leave it as is and I am done.

    Have a nice afternoon.

  23. Gary Post author

    The problem is with silver, gold and miners. How can they possibly be down with the dollar falling?

    I would argue they couldn’t be in a free and natural market.

    I’ll say it again. One has to be careful with the metals. Don’t put a large amount of your portfolio there. The banks are allowed to steal your money with impunity in this sector. The rules are being ignored, and any fines when they get caught are nothing more than a slap on the wrist.

    1. Anthonyo

      What? Uneven application of rules and laws when it comes to mega banks?
      Unheard of.
      Totally rigged.
      We were expecting to see 1375-1400 gold in this here rally, and here comes the smash already?
      Let’s watch.

    2. Spanky

      Not only the dollar broadly, but the yen (arguably the most important cross for gold and commodities) is up big in February and yet the miners have diverged dramatically.

      They are fully correlated with yen on the way down but the correlation breaks down when the yen gets a significant lift? The miners are clearly still in drift/frustration mode. Yesterday’s pop is going to be given all back and then some by the end of this DC.

      Give the miners another 8 months to a year.

    3. ziasDad

      gold has not yet retraced even 24 percent of yesterday’s move. The dollar and gold don’t always move in opposite directions every day.

      1. Spanky

        Nothing is wrong with gold. It looks great on every single timeframe out to the monthly. It’s the miners and silver that look like death warmed over.

  24. Anthonyo

    DJIA weakest link today and yesterday.

    I think there was programmed selling once it hit 25,100+ and a flash crash occurred this morning.

    NAZ leading the way up now, DJIA getting out of the hole. Let’s see if it can close above 25,100 today; and if SPX close over its 50 dma, too.

  25. Spanky

    $HUI put in a black candle on Tuesday. It hasn’t left behind a black candle on the daily chart since the low was struck in 2016. I expect this time to be no different. Sucker’s rally written all over this DC.

  26. jonsyl

    bitcoin hell bent on a close above 10k. Blockchain stocks relunctant to recognize advance. Set up for another sell off.
    Gold testing recent highs while miner stocks relunctant to recognize advance. Actually lower in price on a basis. Set up for another sell off.

    Spx over 2700 recovers roughly half of its plunge. Stalling with option expiry nonsense. Next week will tell the story whether a healthy consolidation or a retrace. No need to hurry. If this is part of a parabolic move there is plenty of upside left to participate in, no matter the constant urging to simply buy.

  27. Anthonyo

    We “may” need a retest of last Friday’s low in stocks just to get gold to 1375-1400?
    Just saying,…DJIA looks wobbly right now.

      1. Anthonyo

        brii
        Market makes one very humble as it does what it wants and not what I want or anyone else wants.

        DJIA and SPX are no again flirting and tagging with 50 dma for the 2nd time today……………….this was the point where DJIA flash crashed this morning by 293 points………………..Let’s see if they can hold their liquor this time…………Watching.

      1. Americano

        SM or BTC. For those who really do have money – NOT owning any Bitcoin will be seen as crazy EOY 2018.
        As crazy as owning any Bitcoin seemed in 2016 & 2017 LMAO !
        One day at a time….
        On The Mayflower.

  28. ras

    About 22 points away from the jan 182 high. Price nudging ma 20. 4-5 day advance without breaking a sweat. Some profit taking around the old high?

  29. desertsun999

    ziasDad, the reason home prices will fall is that interest rates and the price of a home are tied together. When rates go up home prices should start to fall. The value of the dollar has little to do with that equation. Its all about affordability. Unless we were to have some massive wage hikes in the U.S. home affordability would disappear if homes prices stayed the same and we get a 200 basis point ramp up in bond yields. The dollar crisis, if and when it occurs, would pertain to “stuff” that is imported which these days is a lot of “stuff” because of the exporting of our manufacturing base overseas. Farmland would be the last to drop because rates would have to be attractive enough to just park your money in the bank versus working the land for profit or putting it in CRP and collecting government welfare without lifting a finger. That’s the best I can explain it anyway. Maybe Gary has something to add or has another opinion.

    1. Spanky

      The CBs are masters of the universe. In the very very very long run, it will all come back to bite them in the a$$, but people like Bernanke, Yellen, Dimon, Blankfein have made out like proverbial bandits and are laughing their way to the bank (mostly laughing at the hard money crowd). They’ll be dead and buried in their $100 million mausoleums (or cryogenically frozen) by the time this plays out.

      In the long run, we are all dead. Never, ever bet against the bankers. There will be WWIII before they let this slip out of their grasp.

      1. desertsun999

        I will admit Spanky, the CB’s have pretty much demoralized the PM crowd. Bit coin was the latest kick in balls and punch in the face….ha…ha. I think the Fed chair should have a standard question for hard money people……….head or gut? LOL

          1. Spanky

            Before January 2016, the commodity complex had dropped to 40+ year lows over 5 years. That happened simultaneously with global central banks ballooning their balance sheets exponentially. Makes a ton of sense.

            Commodities were due for some sort of bounce and basing period and we’ve gotten than in spades, but absolutely nothing more.

    2. ziasDad

      right. makes sense. obviously there is a connection between interest rates and home prices. so as rates go up, this will likely put the kibosh on home prices increasing. And if they continue going up, home prices may fall.

      But what if we’re wrong about rates going up? Yes, they are rising now and likely will continue rising the rest of this year. But how high can they go given the gargantuan size of US Federal debt?

      So I agree with you regarding rising rates and their impact on home prices. But me personally, I have no clue where rates will be in a couple of years.

  30. roadrunner

    “Americano
    February 15, 2018 at 10:48 am

    Holy…..look at the – 80 % – premium GBTC is trading to – physical – Bitcoin !”

    You do realize there is no such thing as physical bitcoin

  31. Anthonyo

    DJIA and SPX advance torturous and jagged…Meeting resistance at their 50 dma levels , 24,100 and 2721………….this morning those indices did the samething and then flash-crashed down 292 points in the Dow……………Let’s hope this 2nd time around that does not happen again………………This time is the last time for make or break……………..as there are NO triple tops.

    1. Anthonyo

      Both DJIA and SPX are STUCK at their respective 50-day MA levels………..not breaking through those levels to the upside, and not breaking down either………………Time is not on the side of bulls, the less time a bull spent at these levels the better………We need a decisive surge through these levels so we can call it good and “out of the woods”……………………..if not, a meaningful dive towards last Friday lows may ensue…………….I am rooting for the bulls.

      1. Gary Post author

        We are only on day 5 of a brand-new intermediate cycle. We have about 15 to 20 weeks of time ahead of us.

  32. Troy

    The S & P and Dow Jones both took out the 50 day and the Nasdaq even took out the 20 day today. Slingshot definitely in progress.

    1. Bluebellkid

      The Nasdaq is comfortably above the 50 day but the S&P 500 and DOW are still below. The 50 day (10 week) for the S&P is 2735 and it closed at 2725. The 50 day (10 week) for the DOW is 25278 and it closed a 24290.

        1. Bluebellkid

          That’s not a true 50 day or 10 week average. More like 50 calendar days. The high for the S&P was 2731 or right below the 50 day where it found resistance and not taking it out as you think. I might add that I am viewing a weekly chart vs the daily charts you guys are looking at. Not sure the difference but there is on my daily vs weekly as well. I will stick with the weekly as that is what I have been taught.

  33. Anthonyo

    OK Better:

    DJIA finally closed 50 points over its 50 dma
    SPX finally closed 8 points over its 50 dma
    NASDAQ is way above its 50 dma

    I think we can see if tomorrow continues to surge, and we can call it “All Clear Signal” then.

          1. Anthonyo

            Sure on Monday morning quarter backing world, all suddenly have the required “balls” crystal or not.

  34. ted

    The 11% stock market correction was a gift to get in!

    And funny enough, most did not get in!

    And now we may see the QQQ’s hit ATH tomorrow!

  35. Anthonyo

    Precious Metals;
    Believe it or not both NUGT and JNUG were slightly Up today!!
    I noticed gold was down $5 and as soon as stocks rallied it, gold pared its losses.

    Maybe there is an outside chance we can get gold to 1375-1400 before this leg is done afterall. Hopefully.

  36. primetime

    BluebellKid:
    It was nice to see your GBTC trade work out well for the retirement account. Maybe forget the half gallons and start ordering by the 5 gallon pail. Are you still holding?….I thought about selling today possibly expecting a pullback…then I just decided to take profit on some metal trades and will buy more GBTC if there is a pullback. My position is smaller than yours, but was a nice day return.

    1. Bluebellkid

      Still own GBTC. I was hoping it would get to the 50 day or close and I will probably bail there. The 50 day on my weekly chart is 20.37. Right now as far as price goes it is near the highs of the week but as was pointed out yesterday the volume is not kicking in.

      1. primetime

        Yesterday you talked of adding at the 50 day, is the volume concerning you or why the possible sell now instead of adding to position.

        1. Bluebellkid

          The volume has been below average for 8 weeks now including the down weeks so maybe that is the new norm. The line tracking average daily volume is heading lower to reflect that. Taking that into consideration I may stick with it. I was going to buy it last week when it was in the 13-14 range but there was a gap on the daily chart so I hesitated and got left behind. There is a gap this week as well on the daily chart so not sure what to think.

  37. ras

    Just a few facts: tqqq noses above ma 20. Price has gone up vertically without momo indicators not moving up too far. 20 points room to previous high at 182. Nas seems to be the only game in town. Two possibilities:
    1. Price goes up to 182, hesitates briefly to kick off nervous nellies and then goes into blue yonder. This is Gary’s parabola scenario in which tech indicators are not helpful.

    2. Resistance is resistance. Folks who got trapped at 182 will not think twice to unload at 182 plus. Just human nature. In response to this selling, price could pull back to ma 20 and then leap up into a Gary’s parabola. Very often, strong moves happen after a pull back to ma 20.

    1. Anthonyo

      Nice dissection of TQQQ behavior, ras; thanks. Will watch for the infamous $182 region for a possible flash crash.

      I like the TQQQ “nosing Naz” you mentioned.

      Resistance is futile.

    1. Gary Post author

      If people would quit making the same stupid mistakes over and over I wouldn’t have to say I told you so. Instead I would be saying “good job”, you finally learned how to think for yourself instead of following the herd.

      Basically that’s what I try to do in the premium site. Teach people how to think for themselves and ignore the herd when turning points are reached. Cycles give us timing bands for when to start looking the other way, and sentiment levels tell us when everyone is on the same side of the boat.

      I even went so far as to post the dumb money confidence levels. And even then many people insisted on following the herd even when they could plainly see this was the wrong strategy.

  38. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    Despite the Nasdaq rallying 10.5% in the first five days and already in striking distance of the all-time highs (we are in the slingshot just as I predicted), dumb money retail type traders have barely budged from their excessive bearish outlook.

    The wall of worry has been completely rebuilt and we now have the fuel for either a 15-20 week rally, or more likely in my opinion, the parabolic phase of the bubble.

  39. Bluebellkid

    February 15 (King World News) – From Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader: “The HUI Gold Bugs index was at a 52-week low three days ago, and has since jumped more than 3% on two of the sessions since. That has happened 7 other times in the 23-year history of the index, leading to gains over the next two weeks 6 times averaging a hefty 7.1%, with an average reward of nearly 14%…
    Goepfert continues: “Sentiment on gold is back to neutral and there isn’t anything particularly interesting there. The recent jump in gold miners has more of a positive spin, at least shorter-term.

  40. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    Socrates prediction for this week was choppiness and consolidation with multiple trend reversals. Remember Armstrong was predicting the Dow could breach the 2017 lows last week.

    Does that chart look like this was a week of consolidation? Does anyone see a hint of even the slightest reversal at any time this week?

    Or does this look like the slingshot I was predicting?

    1. Christian

      I like that you’re a MEMBER over at Armstrong Economics — Keeping tabs on the slimy bugger 🙂

      1. Gary Post author

        His stock market calls are complete crap, but I think he has enough followers that he sometimes influences the gold market. So yes I do keep tabs on him and when he starts calling a top in gold it can become self fulfilling.

  41. tallboy

    LOL Gary, Great call again bud! Cramer this morning on CNBC was saying I’m still leery of this market, that was a good omen for us smarty money guys.

  42. jacob2

    NILSY. Norlisk Nickel. Think Battery metals.

    http://schrts.co/pw9giV

    Buy and hold. Closing in on a BO of a 10 year base. The longer the base the bigger the ?

    What’s the point figure chart target on something like this?

  43. Gary Post author

    The NDX futures are completing the weekly swing low this morning as the last confirmation that the YCL is now behind us.

    The dollar is starting it’s final 5-7 day bloodbath phase into an ICL. This means gold has 4-5 more days to rally before completing an intermediate top and then starting a 4-6 week drop into its YCL.

    Control emotions and control greed next week. Don’t let the banksters hand you the bag this time. Keep your profits (if you have any). Even though gold should break above the baby bull high the miners probably suffered too much damage during the YCL. They are going to remain stuck in the basing phase a little bit longer.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Gary, just to clarify are you saying the recent low last week and slight breakdown in GDX was the YCL? I´ve been focused on the NQ and stocks recently, so don´t recall if that was your YCL or was it another date.

      I haven´t verified again, but I don´t think the juniors via GDXJ did make a new low, only got close.

      And if last week was the YCL, wouldn´t that still be the best opportunity to get long miners for the next year?

      And thanks again for pounding the table on stocks, it´s turning out to be a great trade.

      1. Gary Post author

        Gold should start to move down into its YCL once the dollar completes the final bloodbath phase and begins a new intermediate rally.

        1. Robert

          This does not make much sense. Why would gold make a YCL when it just came out of one in Dec? Thought yearly cycles last almost a year or 3 ICLs?

          1. Gary Post author

            Attachment

            During the transition from bear market to bull market the yearly cycle low needs to migrate from the end of the year into the beginning of the year. Remember, a yearly cycle low is the lowest ICL of the calendar year. That doesn’t mean that there can’t be an ICL that occurs 12 months after the previous yearly cycle low, but if the bottom holds above a previous ICL bottom then it just becomes a run-of-the-mill ICL and not a YCL.

  44. Jimsee

    record unemployment lows, boom times man!!

    “Aggregate household debt balances increased in the fourth quarter of 2017, for the 14th consecutive quarter, and are now $473 billion higher than the previous (2008:Q3) peak ”

    Record debt all the way around, – New ATH – C e l e Brate good times 🙂

    1. Gary Post author

      Early this morning I was thinking the dollar was ready to start a bloodbath phase down into a final ICL and a tag of that trendline, but this reversal brings up the possibility again that the ICL may not reach that trend line. We’ll have to see how the next few days play out, and especially how the day ends today.

  45. portmoresby

    Gary, i watch this video 3 times on your gold comment but i get unclear direction. So you expecting we broke 1375 and go up to 1380-1401 first and go down back? Can we have exact figure bulls stop and yearly cycle bottom? Really confusing

    1. Gary Post author

      Because we’re too deep into the cycle and the dollar could bottom quicker than expected I don’t think there’s any need to continue pressing the metal trades. Even if gold were to manage to make it up to 1400 there isn’t a lot of potential left. I would advise just waiting on the sidelines until we get our next intermediate cycle low, maybe at the March FOMC meeting

  46. Jimsee

    the eclipse period certainly lived up to it’s volatile image, a high for gold here is cyclically valid, let’s get a pullback and retest please ms. market.

    1. Gary Post author

      The market has had five monster up days in a row. A down day here and there is completely normal.

  47. Goild

    GOLD is typically more expensive over night to fall in the morning.
    Why Asia and Europe must pay higher prices?

  48. Jimsee

    if we get back to a regular cyclic rotation, Feb 21 should be a pullback low in spx imo, probably gold as well.

  49. ziasDad

    So Gary,

    Dollar is up today, gold is up. According to you that’s not supposed to happen. Yesterday you said gold SHOULD be up because dollar was down. (nevermind that gold was up quite a bit the day before and needed a breather.)

    I think you and I both know that the inverse correlation between gold and the dollar holds true over the longer term but not necessarily every single day the market is open.

    😉

    1. Spanky

      The yen has been absolutely ripping higher the last few days. Again, it’s a wonder why anyone actually thinks the DXY is the index to watch.

  50. Goild

    Today is pay day and the SM will benefit from it.
    Every retirement account must pay dire.

    I sold my XLE 460 shares for about $500 bucks profit.
    Next week might be a bad week for the SM.

    1. Spanky

      So you think this is the final DC before the IC tops? The miners are dead meat if that is the case IMO.

      200 dma is about cross below the 600 dma for most of the mining indexes (should happen by late March, right around the next FOMC conveniently). The last time that happened was right before the collapse in 2012. Before that, there was a tiny crossover in 2005 but the miners rallied dramatically just as that cross took place. If gold is on the cusp of topping, there won’t be enough time for the miners to mount a large enough rally.

  51. Goild

    But USD is threatening GOLD…

    And today GOLD must pay for a higher USD.

    The close likely will be down for GOLD/miners.

  52. Spanky

    Attachment

    Same thing with the $hui. TBH, this is not looking good at all. Do not like the fact that the cross over of the 200 and 600 dma is imminent, and price is still below the 600 dma.

    We are going to get some crazy action coming up, that is for certain. This is going to either end up as a massive breakdown a la 2012-13 or price will rise dramatically a la August/September 2005. Right now it doesn’t look good for bulls IMO but I certainly would not bet the farm on a dramatic plunge. We will only know in hindsight.

    1. Syntax

      Attachment

      52 million shares short on the GDX as of the 31st. Wont know for another 10 ish days how many covered during the last period, but I’d bet not that many.

      It is balanced on a razors edge right now.

      1. Spanky

        This is surely going to break down. If gold making new highs can’t get the miners to break out, what will? Put a fork in the miners. This should be fun heading into late March. Maybe the final plunge will end up being a fakeout and an ICL, but you are likely going to have to sit through some major pain and serious chart damage. What a sector.

  53. Gary Post author

    The miners just took too big of a hit during the correction. Not only was gold going down but the intense selling pressure in the stock market infected miners as well.

    Now we may have completed an ICL in the dollar sooner than expected. If so gold is going to begin moving down into its YCL between now and the FOMC meeting.

    One always has to be careful with metals. They are one of the more heavily manipulated sectors of the market. The government uses the metal market to control commodity inflation. Just like they use the stock market to control the business cycle.

    That’s why I keep telling people to focus mostly on stocks. At least in that sector any manipulation will be in your favor. In the metals it will be against you.

    1. Spanky

      Hard to disagree with anything you say. It’s in no government’s interest to see gold and commodities rise dramatically from here. Just the opposite. And they absolutely have the power to do whatever TF they want. Goldbugs are like Don Quixote, tilting at windmills. The fact that commodities are at 50+ year lows after the Fed and world CBs have balooned their balance sheets parabolically since 2008 is proof positive that you can’t fight the Fed!

    1. Spanky

      A cup and handle is a bullish continuation pattern that you see after a long bull run. That doesn’t exactly fit with GDX, at least not the monthly chart.

  54. Spanky

    Attachment

    $silver is the easiest short in the world right now. Any touch of the 200 dma should be sold. Put a stop at $17.10 and be done with it. Dramatic plunge is incoming soon. And I don’t care where the COTs are at this week. The same thing was true in 2012. No one thought silver could go lower with COTs looking so bullish. But we all know what happened.

  55. MrBurns

    Four things to be mindful of:

    1) NYMO hit +40 zone which is resistance
    2) FBI indicting 15 Russians for voting shenanigans
    3) SPX backtesting channel at 2750
    4) Gartman threw in the towel from his disaster short call last week at the very bottom

      1. MrBurns

        You keep saying that, but I don’t see these lines as scientific formulas, rather approximations.
        The price action can go above and below and still be close enough to be correct, a point or three is irrelevant in 2700.

        1. Gary Post author

          Attachment

          You drew your lower trend line right through price. Basically you just constructed the chart to make it say what you wanted it to say.

          Here is the correct trend line.

          1. MrBurns

            I said this before, draw the line to the body and not the thin line, that could have been 5 shares for all you know (yes I realize it is not).

            Also the way you’ve drawn it makes little sense as to the channel’s existence, where you can expect bounces or pullbacks.

            Interpretive science, potato, potatoe.

            Either way, it supports your view of pullback after rising hot, this I also agree on.

      1. Spanky

        The miners have been telling us this for months! The next few weeks are going to take the bull thesis to the absolute limit IMO. Gold will be well below $1300 and $silver will be at new multiyear lows by the end of March.

          1. Spanky

            We’ll probably test Gary’s ancient target of $16-17 with ease. Long term charts will look like absolute garbage to the extent they already don’t.

        1. faz

          Maybe it was the banksters telling us. They are likely lying barstewards. Dont buy their coolaid. Go to sandstorm golds site and listen to the first ten mins of the last conference call.. might cheer you up.. be warned;)

      2. Spanky

        So the $gold daily cycle has topped after only 5 days, with DCs running 40-45 days lately. Oh my this is going to be absolutely brutal into the FOMC meeting. wow.

        1. Gary Post author

          Don’t be ridiculous. DCL’s don’t go down every day and there is always a bounce at some point in order to construct the down trend line.

          Gold isn’t going to drop below last years YCL in July.

          It could be a trying time for gold bugs though as YCL’s tend to be quite difficult.

          1. Spanky

            Well if gold is sitting at $1250 or below in March, $silver is going to get utterly smashed to new multiyear lows. The monthly chart has looked so weak and there is plenty of room to the downside.

            I’ll bet that trendline from 2016 in gold gets tested in the next two months.

            Also, the selloffs into FOMC meeting tend to be straight down and unrelenting–literally no bounces. The miners have been telling us for months that gold is headed lower and I expect its going dramatically lower.

          2. roadrunner

            Spanky..you need to get a grip on yourself.
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xyh-JpWdGmQ
            First, if you are so sure that Gold and the Miners and Silver are about to whacked to multi year lows, wouldn’t the correct response be to IMMEDIATELY sell all your PM holdings and buy back much cheaper. Simple.

            second. You have no evidence that Gold is dropping into a DCL or that this DC has topped. None, ZERO. So what are you whining about?

            third. the miners just go whacked big time vs Gold for a couple of weeks. Did you not see the volumes on GDX? Over 100 million shares last Friday alone. Who do you think was buying at those lower prices?

            Gold is up $40 since last Friday…whats the problem? Nothing wrong with the chart. China was closed today and i think they will be closed Monday as well.

            You have been investing, trading, following studying, gold and miners for at least 10 years or longer, so you should be use to this market. now go watch the Olympics for fun.

    1. Gary Post author

      We don’t know how the day will end yet.

      We do know the the NDX is going to form a weekly swing low this week even if the market closes down today.

  56. jacob2

    Time for counter trend rally’s in the dollar and utilities. Short term bad for commodities and SM (over extended top of new trading range 2750 S&P).

    1. Jim Dandy

      I think you are right. I was thinking of using a pullback to buy some commodity stocks, particularly gold and silver miners, and uranium companies but Spanky´s doom on the group talked me out of it. I wonder how many other people he has scared away? Lol

      1. jacob2

        Old Turkey lots of commodity and stock stuff, staying pat. The DJU has turned short term bullish, but the news that is emerging is very inflationary. Think it is trading range time for the SM 2500 – 2750 S&P or so. Machines and clairvoyant traders should have a field day, That’s not me. After the next sell off will buy more of everything.

        Patience and good luck.

  57. Spanky

    Is silver and the miners really break down here, it’s not going to be good for the stock market, I can almost guarantee that. This reeks of 2007-2008 right now.

    1. Gary Post author

      Go back and look at the charts of the ROBO ratio again at market tops.

      Also look at the dumb money confidence levels.

      Then try to control emotions and do the opposite of what everyone else is doing. That’s how one makes money in the market.

        1. Gary Post author

          Listen to me when I tell you that metals are one of the most heavily manipulated sectors. Accept that in this sector you have to allow for manipulation and make allowances. You simply can’t fight the Fed’s printing press.

          For gold to really break free we need the currency to really begin to unravel. Clearly we aren’t at that stage yet.

  58. Anthonyo

    Gary,

    1) In light of gold weakness right now, and expectations for it to fall into an YCL….if a hypothetical trader had USLV, JUNG and NUGT at loss, would it behoove him or her to sell all shares and convert the proceeds into stocks long?

    2) At what level was gold’s YCL last july?

    3) Do you see oil going towards $55? the $49 if this rate madness intensifies in pitch?

    1. Gary Post author

      Don’t hold the triple leveraged mining shares through a YCL. Miners are already mega volatile by themselves. Multiple that by 3 and you have the recipe for a heart attack.

        1. Spanky

          Sounds good to me. GDX will be $13-15 bucks at that point. and silver…. silver will for sure be at a new multiyear low.

  59. Spanky

    Attachment

    Does this chart really suggest a new bull market in the metals began in 2016??? Not to me it doesn’t. It looks bearish as can be for silver and miners!

    1. Spanky

      Yes, and there is acres of space for backing and filling for YEARS. We will probably retest that 18-20 region soon.

  60. Spanky

    The last few desperate bugs holding on during this 20 month bear market in the mining stocks are about to be broken, yet again.

    I suppose it will be a buying opportunity for at least some sort of sucker’s bounce though once GDX drops into the mid to low teens.

    F this sector! lol.

    Have a nice weekend all.

  61. Anthonyo

    Gary,

    Gold: July 7, 2017 YCL $1208 ? sounds right?

    I take it 1380-1425 not coming anytime soon as the banksters have decided to pull the rug early from under miners?

        1. Christian

          My plan is still in place, so not sure what you mean?

          STOCKS could push OIL up a little further but for now.. OIL is bumping up against RESISTANCE, so just keeping a watchful eye 🙂

          I might pick up some OILD around $9.25 but haven’t decided yet..

          Like I said once upon time — OIL is a cranky old girl!!

          1. Anthonyo

            Yes you did say that.

            I have been short via DWT since w ahile now….loved the fall to $58 but hating the bounce.

            If stocks are to party party it may not be good for Oil shorts.
            But I am still hoping we get a whoosh down to at least $55.
            Problem is Saudis talk it up and manipulate it up like they did the other day.

  62. alvinheart

    Gold in Yen on the 2hr looks like it wants to move down. If it does, then we will definitely have a leg down in gold. But Euro gold is either consolidating for another leg down, or has made a turn — very hard to say. And it’s the strength of gold in euro that is keeping it afloat here.

  63. Spanky

    It looks like the yen ($XJY) has finally topped. Kiss the metals good bye. The stock market should get a hell of a pop as the yen tanks from here. It is *so* overbought on the weekly chart at this point (stochastics) there is only one way for it to go in the near term and that is down. Anyone expecting a repeat of 2016 is smoking crack.

    The miners actually sold off while the yen made its recent rocket ride up over the last few weeks. Get ready for extreme pain in the miners and yen mildly corrects into a normal pullback on the weekly chart.

  64. alvinheart

    Also GDX:GLD 2 hr looks like it is ready for a big move down. I think I will remain on the side for this battle.

      1. desertsun999

        Spanky, you need to cut your position size in pm’s . You have way too much anxiety over this sector. You need to ask yourself this, If your as technically proficient as you want everybody to believe then why all the stress? You should be making money regardless of direction. No, this is not a slam. Its an observation.

    1. Gary Post author

      Attachment

      Not really. Gold is part of the CRB. They should move more or less together, although maybe not perfectly in sync. The CRB was due for a 3 year cycle low. It should have occurred at roughly the same time as the 4 year cycle low in the stock market. That occurred in early 2016. Gold made it’s 8 year cycle low slightly ahead of the CRB and stock market… just like it did in 2008 during the 8, 3, 4 combo back then as well.

  65. Goild

    To predict a bounce last Friday and be right was a piece of cake.
    To predict the turn around and be right required expertise.

    Christian has a clear crystal ball.

  66. Robert

    Ok people what are your predictions for next week. Does the S&P have a correction or can it continue up?

    1. Gary Post author

      ICL’s don’t usually produce much of a correction for the first 15-18 days. They typically rally pretty strongly until the half cycle low comes due.

      I think the new Fed head would like to have the market safely back at or near the highs in time for the Humphrey Hawkins address.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’ve been trying to get people to use them for 9 years. Despite the fact that I’ve always called these cycle lows accurately many people continue to argue with me about them at every single one of these.

          So does it seem like the problem is in the analysis or with traders not being able to break their bias or control their emotions and go against the crowd?

          1. Robert

            Its the emotions. Even now after tha slingshot im still doubting a new all time high. Emotions are very hard to control in trading. I don’t know how you do it

          2. Gary Post author

            I think you can bet the farm that we will recover the all time highs by the March FOMC meeting. The Fed wants to stay on their rate hiking cycle. They can only do this if the stock market behaves.

            Right now the market is pricing in an 83% chance they will raise in March. That means stocks will be at or near the highs at that time.

    1. Gary Post author

      Remember the money flow numbers can just mean that we get a one day turn, they aren’t 100% by any means. We’ve seen one almost every day this week and every one has been negated. For some reason many people seem to think these indicate a major trend change is about to occur. Most of the time they just predict a one day move and often that counter trend move generates an opposite money flow signal.

    2. Christian

      A pull-back to the 23%Fib, which coincides with SPX 2700 “THE psychological line in the sand” is not out of the question next week 🙂

      For those of you still sitting on your hands; this will be your chance to load up!

      The only question is: How many of you will find a reason not to :/

  67. Goild

    Some of the first sectors to announce the SM drop were transportation, energy, and UVXY.
    I would look at them to gauge next week.

    UVXY looks wanting to climb again.
    XLE did not have a good bounce and is weak.
    TPOR is also weak.

    Thus next week SM will drop. Perhaps.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t know what people think they are seeing in this chart. It’s been dropping steadily since 2010.

      It the same with the money velocity charts. It’s been dropping since 98, yet during that time we’ve had 4 bubbles and one of the largest bull markets in history. It seems to me it’s a completely meaningless statistic.

      1. Americano

        I think its a by-product of QE Gary.
        Banks simply have more than enough/no need to do it……or lack of trust but you’d think you’d see that duing the financial crisis…..you really didn’t. QE goosed the decline.

        1. roadrunner

          Discontinuing the interbank series had nothing to do with last week. they announced the decision in October and discontinued at end of 2017.

  68. ras

    uvxy getting ready for a bounce. SM getting ready fora dip. Sm is a 2 way street irrespective of bubble/parabola.

  69. desertsun999

    The strange thing about the gold cycle was that it bottomed a year before the $USD topped. I have to attribute that to the age of the internet. In previous cycles you just did not have the data available that one has now and therefore more camouflage is required to create doubt about timing. Tim Wood is still calling for a late cycle bottom. I can’t believe he is still in the subscription business. After you have been wrong on just about everything for over a decade who would buy a subscription.

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