196 thoughts on “TIME TO GIVE THE METALS A BREAK

    1. Nada

      Agree. If the last IC is of any use, then the first daily cycle was the only one worth being in gold. The rest of the IC was complete garbage and chewed up bears and bulls.

  1. Nada

    Still no jyoung? He told me gold was going lower when I went into calls on dec 12th and told me gold was going to 1400+ when I went into puts, 2 days from the top. I said the Dixie was going to release the hounds of hell on gold.. she has yet to start whistling.. but she will, oh will she ever.

  2. Nada

    Speaking of gold shorts. Who was it that was saying shorting gold was a huge mistake because the euro was flagging and efforts would be better suited to shorting oil? Oil has their balls in a vice and will not let go.

    1. Gary Post author

      Oil will have its ICL just like the stock market did.

      Betting against the normal cycle flow is always a losing proposition in the end. It is completing a weekly swing and is very deep in its intermediate cycle.

        1. Anthonyo

          DRIP only works better for downside bet on oil when we have decline in WTI price as well as a mini crash in stocks happen together as the case was in the last week or so.

      1. Anthonyo

        Gary,

        Oil finally getting the extreme frost off its top,
        where do you see the ICL for oil number-wise?

        Thank you.

  3. jacob2

    Buying oil. Oil has had it’s correction followed it down with ERY. The 2 commodities with the best seasonal charts for the next 6 months are oil and soybeans.

  4. JJHarmen

    Looks like the buy the dip boys and girls are still playing the same old tune. I don’t think it will carry on for much longer today and predict a down day for the markets.

        1. vin

          Gary, i am skeptical. But, if it does happen I will be thankful to you. I have made substantial bets on your scenario. My offer of a grand dinner for you and your partner in case it does happen i.e. 10k by the end of April still stands. Hoping that you are right.

        2. ras

          First, tqqq needs to climb above ma20 now @ 167. We can bring back the piece of cake chant at that time.

    1. vin

      If yes then I am interested in it. Tell me the conditions, either here or you have my e-mail address.

      1. Gary Post author

        LOL not a chance I’m going to make that same bet with everyone on the blog. My risk goes up exponentially. Maybe you can contact Goild or BV and see if they would be willing to let you lay off half their risk.

      2. Autobahn

        So you made substantial bets on Gary’s prediction but on the other side you want to bet 1k that it doesn’t happen?!?

        Gary am I picking on people or we have a number of subs that totally don’t make sense?

        1. vin

          Certainty in this kind of “investing” (or more correctly gambling) is nonexistent. Those who have played this game for some time know that it pays to hedge one’s bet. In due course of time everyone understands that. I am not sure if that is true in your case. You are exceptional.

          Gary has been excellent and to follow him is a pleasure. But, that doesn’t mean he is always going to be right. He has surprised us with many of his quite accurate predictions, But, then he has been wrong and there is no guarantee that he will be always right.

          I have BET (I wouldn’t call it an investment) on his scenario. The BET is much more than 1k but it is only a small fraction of my portfolio. So, I don’t mind giving him 1k out of the profit if he is right. But, understand that by any standard and I mean by any standard it is an expensive market. And, if someone can tell me assertively that it is going to go up like crazy and who has a pretty good record then I am willing to bet on it.

          Finally, read the board again. Gary thinks that most probably gold will go up and yet he is out. There is nothing wrong with it. I write this just for your understanding. I doubt that you will understand.

          1. Autobahn

            Blah blah blah
            Zero sense what so ever
            I will follow you post for now and see if you can actually make any

  5. vin

    dammmmm it. Even LABU and JNUG are down. I was expecting them to go up today. They did and I didn’t sell them. Ouuuuch!

    1. Autobahn

      Lol
      Good one !!
      I wanted them to go up they did an I didn’t sell them
      ROFL
      Why don’t you hedge it now

  6. Don

    Why are people still buying XIV when it’s destined for termination? If they must buy inverse volatility, SVXY is a much better choice.

  7. Robert

    Gold may not be worth it anymore but there should be a chance to make some money soon on a quick bounce out of the DCL

    1. Nada

      No doubt. My point was, gold short was the right choice versus oil who has had a death grip on ones balls.

    1. Christian

      OIL’s intermediate trend line is the ideal scenario but like I was telling Anthonyo the other day.. OIL is a cranky old girl and needs time to get there 🙂

      My first target for OILD is the underside of that consolidation zone (around 11.50/12) and we’ll get there quickly enough if we are able to maintain momentum.

      1. alvinheart

        Thanks, Christian. Where is Oil’s intermediate trendline vis-a-vis OILD? Could you kindly show a diagram? Anyway, thanks so much.

  8. Christian

    I’m always amazed at the people that either don’t listen or hear good advice from those that have been around long enough to know better.

    This one bears repeating:

    “Betting against the normal cycle flow is always a losing proposition in the end.”

    Trading doesn’t have to be hard folks 🙂

  9. MrBurns

    Despite gains in SPY and QQQ, options premium has dropped sharply on just about all strikes as VIX is down by 25% which implodes implied volatility.

  10. palobar

    I hope that we can see the Gold/Silver ratio above the 83.20 level at the end of March. [IF] that would take place, then we could see Gold really break down.

  11. 1970confused

    So just like the traders that thought by shorting the $vix indefinitely because that’s how they’ve been keeping this insane market up(manipulation extreme) ….XIV finally exploded in everyone’s face lol!!!! I hope one morning we wake up and find out the chains have been cut off Gold and Silver and are limit up, everyone caught short especially with DUST and JDST see them go straight to ZERO

    1. Americano

      Given the DECADES of historical data available, lotto scratcher tickets are a more plausible option in terms of return.
      Gary’s take on sm is going with the powers that be interests + momentum. His sm calls are a gimme.
      I’m objective in this as I’m on the Mayflower.

  12. 1970confused

    just constant unrelenting pressure on the miners neck day after day year after year and the stock market babies are crying after a 2 day drop, what a joke…..

  13. palobar

    Still holding my shorts from 25/1 and adjustment my risk on the way down. We should find strong support around the 1295 area

  14. Nada

    @bluebellkid You still looking for a close above 50ma to hold positions? We got rejected earlier, but seem to be making a second attempt. Welcome your point of view.

    1. Bluebellkid

      First of all it doesn’t have to be today or tomorrow or after looking at the charts even Friday but ultimately that is what we want and the sooner the better. Friday’s close is the important thing to look at. Getting back above the 50 day this week might be asking too much for such a huge spike down. Positive action would be closes in the upper half of the weekly trading range which at this point looks good but we are only half way thru the week. I have a question for you Nada. You mentioned the other day that gold put in a beautiful top. I pulled up a weekly chart on Stockcharts and see where gold built a beautiful cup and was maybe starting a handle when it cratered. What did you see?

      1. Nada

        I believe what I stated was the topping process was very gentle and longs were given ample opportunity to exit due to the behavior in the dollar. What I saw was the dollar coming out of an ICL.

        1. Bluebellkid

          Nada
          February 2, 2018 at 7:29 am
          1330 is not going to be the DCL. You guys are dreaming. Gold delivered the sweetest topping process I have seen in some time, everyone had more than adequate time to exit leverage. Now comes the pain, and make no mistake, gold is going to make you cry blood.

          1. Nada

            Yeah that’s basically how I remember. Gentle / Sweetest used in similar terms here in regard to the opportunities provided to exit.

  15. Jimsee

    shorting DIA vis DIA puts on retest of days highs – a retest of recent lows favored – methinks this primarily political drama is not over yet.

  16. Goild

    Attachment

    Today has been a good day.
    Now holding
    2000 GDX shares
    3000 JNUG shares
    Done for the day 🙂

  17. Infamous_M

    Goild, Miners been down all week. Will we be seeing a rise anytime soon?
    I’m down 40% and thinking of adding more to offset the loss.

  18. Goild

    Infamous_M

    I would hold down onto your positions.
    But do not add more money to the miners.
    They can go lower.
    We are nearly at an extreme, JNUG starts to show signs of reluctance to follow gold.

  19. Goild

    Infamous_M,

    Though you are the only one who knows your situation and so is up to you to add.
    One thing for sure: do not do dramatic trading.
    I am aiming to have a pretty good run up on the miners.

    1. vin

      It is funny, Goild. In spite of all the expert advise here to the contrary I feel exactly as you.

      May be just wishful thinking. We will see.

      One thing for sure all this expert “knowledge” must be taken with a grain of salt. They are sometime right and sometime wrong.

    1. Nada

      We are far from an ICL. Get ready for some serious selling and or frustrating chop for the next 4 months. By the look of the dollar, it’s going to be murderous for gold.

  20. Bv

    Hello Gary, is there a BV as opposed to a Bv? Only, I haven’t made any bets with you. This has worried me a little bit.

        1. Bluebellkid

          After the close today you may be right. I had an $8+ profit in SOXL and am down 0.28 cents now.

    1. Gary Post author

      An undercut is always possible but there’s no doubt at this point the market is putting in a YCL.

      1. Autobahn

        Obviously by the severity of this decline we can assume market is finding YCL but Gary did you expect YCL during this intermediate cycle or maybe further down the road?

        1. Gary Post author

          It came in February and March the last two year. So it’s due in the same time frame this year. The length of the intermediate cycle suggests it will occur now in February instead of stretching out to March.

  21. Herman

    OK, so we broke the .38 retracement of the first DC move up in gold, and are now headed towards 1302 (.50). Let’s see what happens there. Maybe a bounce?

    GDXJ starts to relatively outperform GDX. Interesting.

      1. Herman

        Let’s see. I am glad I sold GDXJ @35.80, based on the trading day count into the DC and the price action. The first time I made such a calculated decision, based on the info provided by Gary. Feels like I am finally starting to learn something 😉 Also glad that we get yet another opportunity to buy into the miners at lower levels..

  22. Anthonyo

    Gary,

    Stocks:
    Wave 4 UP is typically messy and we are seeing it now……….
    There is still this nagging scenario of a Wave 5 down to a major support area just below Dow 22,500 which will mean a 17% correction top to bottom.

    How much of this scenario may be supported also in your cycle analysis right now? If at all??

    1. Nada

      None used the bounces to exit. Now they are all too far underwater for the bounces to save them. They will all ride to the bottom together, hand in hand.

  23. victor

    Regarding XIV termination. Does anyone know if HVI.TO will follow? Can’t find any news on that. Thanks.
    After huge loss 87% overnight I still holding HVI, nothing to lose, but if they terminate it too, that’s sucs …

    1. MrBurns

      Why do you people insist on buying this shit? Read the prospectus and see if it makes ANY SENSE to you…

    2. Don

      Victor, HVI is an ETF, not an ETN so the rules are different. That said, I sold my HVI today. It’s not responding to the SM rally at all. Maybe will look at it again another time.

  24. Don

    I sold my inverse volatility play (HVI) for a small profit. The strong performance of UVXY may be indicating that more SM downside is on the way.

  25. Gary Post author

    An undercut is always possible. Many ICL’s have them, but not all.

    It doesn’t change the ultimate outcome though.

    10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

    1. m0ntana

      Gary,
      So.. I think talking about ICL contradicts your own thesis here. Didn’t you say earlier that cycle analysis don’t matter when rally is induced by easy money policy and we are definitely in a bubble? How sure are you this was/is ICL/YCL and not one-off event that flips everything over?

      1. Gary Post author

        So here’s the question. If we do get an undercut will you then buy or will you again expect another undercut below that one and forever stay on the sidelines always looking for another lower low?

    2. jacob2

      Unless we get a replay of the nikke in 1990. Both markets similar. Started from double bottoms 8 year rise, 10 % bubble, failed rally. Don’t think so but they rhyme.

  26. MrBurns

    I doubt there will be a “V”-recovery. Base forming for a couple of months and gradual upswing after summer.

    Can’t see a reason for a sharp upswing with earnings over and fickle markets with many having lost cash lately as they were piled into longs.

  27. jeremyl

    Thanks for the metals update Gary. I get the impression that the dollar is being protected from a further downside decline at the expense of stocks, gold and cryptos. Interesting times. Looking forward to the dollar resuming its decline hopefully soon.

    1. Gary Post author

      Sentiment has just gotten extreme and it reached a major support zone. It may still roll over and reach that trend line before the ICL is complete but there’s enough ambiguity at this point that it’s not worth trying to catch any more upside in gold. It just may not come if the dollar did in fact hit the ICL.

  28. Bluebellkid

    The Nasdaq composite gave up an intraday gain of more than 0.7% and ended the session 0.9% lower. Such price action is consistent with a market uptrend under serious selling pressure.
    The S&P 500 dropped 0.5%, a fraction of the 2.1% and 4.1% declines it suffered on Friday and Monday. However, go to a daily chart and you’ll see that the large-cap benchmark turned tail after trying to rise back above the 50-day moving average Wednesday. Such resistance is not ideal. The Nasdaq composite suffered a similar negative reversal on Wednesday. Another curious divergence within the market: more stocks actually gained than fell. Winners led by a roughly 15-14 margin on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE.

    1. Gary Post author

      We’re going to see at least another day or two before we know whether an undercut is coming or not.

    2. GMoney

      Like I’ve been saying, this market event is far from over. The rebound (aka Dead Cat) was pathetically weak.

      1. Gary Post author

        Way too early for that. Often bottoms are formed with big volatile swings back and forth before the bull finally wins and price resumes the secular trend. Then sometimes there is an undercut with the NYMO diverging.

        Either way it’s close enough at this point. One doesn’t have to catch the exact bottom to make good money.

        10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

  29. isavage

    GARY

    So with the chances of the under cut low increased after the reversal day and the sell off ongoing in futures.

    What’s your thoughts on the VIX making a higher spike high? Or do you think 50 would hold as the high? There seems a strong trend in uvxy that has not been happening for many months.

    Hope you had a good day climbing yesterday

      1. isavage

        Fair enough Gary. I didn’t think it was your bag thanks for the reply.

        Anybody else want to add their thoughts?

  30. Goild

    Attachment

    Vin,

    Here is the situation.

    The miners are being punished, which might be ending. We still do not have a doji to indicate a possible reversal or short candles showing exhaustion. Or any other reversal sign.
    Though the XAU is now at extreme and the rubber band rule applies here.
    Money may flow from the SM to gold.
    We are near the channel bottom.

    I do not buy too much that USD is a big threat.

    However, didn’t you say JNUG at $8?
    It is darn possibility.

    1. vin

      I did say jnug at 8 and was certain that it will go below 10 but then I got swayed away by Gary’s deep rooted logic and I skrewed my set up.

      I fact jnug probably will go below 10 as I had anticipated earlier. And, if does not then get ready for a rocket. Miners are extremely cheap, probably the cheapest ever. Small caps are dirt cheap.

      As everyone says here, miners are manipulated. if they are then sooner or later the manipulators will change sides. When? Can they really shake investors too much now. I really doubt it. Many good small and micro caps have lost 80 to 90% in last ten years or so. And, some of them are viable mines even at today’s gold price.

      I am hopeful. But, then market has this habit of humbling people whenever they become cocky.

    1. vin

      Interesting graph! October “oversold resulted” in sideways and then down. December oversold (really extended) resulted in a vertical up movement.

      What will the present “oversold” do?

  31. Gary Post author

    A couple of possibilities would be when gold reaches support at $1300 – $1308, or when the dollar reaches resistance at the September ICL at 91.

  32. BeachandBiscuits

    Tom McClellan (of McClellan Oscillator/ NYMO) makes some good points in this brief interview with CNBC.

    Not just rates, but the fact the Fed is taking big dough out of circulation ($20 bln last week) is impacting stocks.

    Gary, I’m still with you on your thesis of how things should play out, but it looks like some important things have changed that need to be accounted for.

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/02/07/mcclellan-market-report-why-the-fed-is-to-blame-for-sell-off.html

  33. jacob2

    A very minority opinion:

    Know most here believe we hit the lows on Monday, so just retest or slightly undercut these numbers and it’s off to bubbleville. Think we still get our15% correction over the next few weeks. Fear needs to reign for more then 2 days. All this, way too predictable and according to script. Time for something different. Major indices below there 200 DM should do it:

    PO Dow 2250, COMPQ 6500, S&P 2500.

    If it comes to pass no one will want to touch the market for quite some time.

    1. Margret Kopala

      With the Fed planning to sell some $450 billion in Treasuries and mortgage backed securities this year, plus another $600 billion in subsequent years, it is unlikely it will want to see this kind of market reaction with every quarterly sale that McClellan mentions in the CNBC interview linked above.

      Expect some dovish musings from Fed governors, perhaps from Chair Powell himself as early as his Humphrey Hawkins presentation to Congress due this month, date tba.

      1. Margret Kopala

        Just to add the following from Evans Pritchard’s Telegraph column on 5 Feb:

        “There are still vast sums of money on the side-lines, poised to buy on any dip in bond and equity prices. Richard Turnhill, global investment chief for Blackrock, estimates that $22 trillion (£15.7 trillion) of fresh money from sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, companies, and household savings will need to be invested this year.”

        This should overwhelm any withdrawal of stimulus, he adds.

    1. Don

      What did overnight trading mean after Monday’s big day down? Right… absolutely nothing. Is that enough ” perspective” for you Vin?

        1. Don

          Just trying to help out a someone who can’t figure things out on his own. At one point during Monday’s after hours trading, the S&P futures were discounting the index by nearly one hundred points and everyone was yipping about a crash come Tuesday morning. And what happened? Right, massive SM rally on Tuesday.
          So Vin, did overnight trading provide us with any clue as to what was going to happen the next day? You don’t need an “expert’ to tell you what is obvious and that is that overnight trading is worthless as being any kind of indicator.

          1. vin

            Thanks Don. But, you missed my point again and took my comment personally.

            Information you have provided is useless. One event in the market does not make it a rule. I was asking someone who really knew whether the doldrums in the market would affect today’s opening. A difficult question to answer and as we saw no one with real knowledge took the challenge. Not surprised. In fact I was wondering if someone like Nada or Gary would have an idea. They were probably busy.

            Thanks anyway.

          2. vin

            Thanks Gary. I agree with you. But, some of your insight makes me think that you do.

            You explain your thinking in details. But, to tell you the truth you amaze me. It is not that you have been right so often (and sometimes wrong). It is that some of your predictions go beyond the logic of the market fundas and are still proven to be correct.

            Above all your confidence in your predictions is beyond comprehension. Are you sure you don’t have a “secret” crystal ball?

  34. Goild

    Vin,

    I am no expert but it is very simple.
    Candles like tuning forks sympathize.
    We had a deep candle on Monday, and there will be another candle to the same depth.
    It is a candle rule that often applies.

    1. roadrunner

      Goild, @MrBurns has made about a half dozen posts about these products. So have others. READ THE PROSPECTUS. they are designed to go to zero…ie…take your money.

  35. jeremyl

    Attachment

    Gary any chance the Bitcoin bubble popping could just be another one of its many price corrections or do you think this time it’s different and The Bitcoin price can never recover to its recent high or even higher in the longer term? See the chart with a list of some of the previous bitcoin price corrections.

    1. Americano

      Jeremy,
      Did you count the “events” on your graph?
      If you did you’d notice more than 9 so Bitcoin is DEFINITELY not a cat.

  36. Jim Dandy

    Gary,
    Interesting you think that GDX might be searching for an ICL, do you think it would be worth playing then, and how do you rectify this with gold not really looking similar, more like a near term DCL?

    And being the first IC was so weak, what does that imply for a second IC, in your opinion?

    1. Nada

      Hmm. Wow sentiment didn’t take any time to get reset. I guess a failed cycle is likely if the dollar confirms the move out of the ICL. A close above 90.50 should do the trick.

      1. Jim Dandy

        Could be, but I don´t even watch the buck, it just throws another monkey wrench in the mix. If they are so highly correlated, I should only need to study one of them so it might as well be the one I am looking to trade.

        Miners look much weaker than the dollar in my opinion, and while the dollar might be making an ICL, it dosen´t look all that strong, either. I remember when bonds and gold used to trade together, but now bonds are more volatile than gold and don´t seem correlated any longer.

        I am not sure what you mean by sentiment getting reset, of if you are implying my personal feelings on the action.

        1. Nada

          Sentiment : Two weeks ago, baby bull highs, 1400-1500 this IC. Now equate to failed cycles, gold below 1300, ICL in miners, bearish.

          Not directed at your viewpoints, just general comments. Basically everyone got too bullish in gold and too bearish on USD;. Example video posts on blog how this MA moving above that MA means something, how this indicator shows gold going to 1400.. etc, technical analysis fail. Then poof, they disappear. @yjoung

          1. Jim Dandy

            I understand, I wasn´t paying much attention to sentiment lately so wasn´t clear, though personally I am not bullish short term, other than a bounce which is do. It feels to me like the markets might not be done yet on the downside and since miners go down no matter what happens, they should drop as well. However, I think once the wheels come off the general stock markets, metals and miners will drop but not as much, then have a spectacular rally. I was thinking it was imminent, now not so much.

        2. RTTPD

          I think we’re going to get a bounce here in the next few days and jumped the gun and bought some HL at 3.54

  37. Goild

    Attachment

    Good morning,

    Seem like today is a good day for gold/miners.

    Let us make money either way.

    1. vin

      Hi Goild. Here is the response I posted above:

      I did say jnug at 8 and was certain that it will go below 10 but then I got swayed away by Gary’s deep rooted logic and I skrewed my setup.

      In fact jnug probably will go below 10 as I had anticipated earlier. And, if does not then get ready for a rocket. Miners are extremely cheap, probably the cheapest ever. Small caps are dirt cheap.

      As everyone says here, miners are manipulated. if they are then sooner or later the manipulators will change sides. When? Can they really shake investors too much now. I really doubt it. Many good small and micro caps have lost 80 to 90% in last ten years or so. And, some of them are viable mines even at today’s gold price.

      I am hopeful. But, then market has this habit of humbling people whenever they become cocky.

  38. Gary Post author

    I’m going to take a guess and say if we get through today flat or slightly up then it’s going to be off to the races.

      1. vin

        of-course. Just that some guesses are more reliable than others. Isn’t that what gambling is all about?

      1. Nada

        I was thinking the same thing with the flag and rising volatility, but they love to monkey hammer volatility right when you think its going to make a move.

        1. vin

          Nada do you really believe that the market is so strictly manipulated. It is very big. Does someone really have so much dough?

          1. Nada

            There are certain market levers that can be pulled to help support markets and yes I believe these levers are used often. If you look at the rise since November, smart money has been gaming the system the entire move – utilizing options and then moving the indices by buying stocks that are heavily weighted in each corresponding index.

  39. Spanky

    The move in $TNX has been incredibly powerful. It certainly looks like there could be at least a short term cool off based on the daily RSI, but you gotta figure it will make higher highs as momentum diverges for quite some time–it’s just how it is.

    Large inflections in $TNX correspond pretty closely with major tops and major lows in the miners. Now, miners have held up pretty well given the move in $TNX (famous last words), which is good if you believe miners are in a bull market along with bond yields, but I imagine $TNX is going to inflict some serious pain before it forms some sort of IC top.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68184526352&a=576498207&listNum=1

      1. Nada

        Ok that was pretty funny. I love hearing Spanky’s comments when I am short gold and hate them when I am long gold 🙂

        1. Jim Dandy

          Crappy as the miners are, I get a kick out of his overwhelming pessimism, often wonder why he dosen´t just shoot himself or jump out a window and get it over with.

    1. Nada

      “if” we get another market dump. Social media will be entertaining on this blog if you call a move with certainty and it does not happen 😛 I will make sure of that, lol.

    1. Vintana

      I’m failing to imagine what catalyst is gonna propel the market back to its highs. I knew there would have to be more blood let before the smart money jumped back in based on sentiment…just doen’t feel as if we’re anywhere close.

  40. Goild

    Attachment

    Vin,

    Thanks for the comments above. We shall see how things evolve.
    There is a bit of pessimism about the miners. Which can change swiftly.
    I sold 1K JNUG shares to reduce pain in case the miners continue diving.
    Holding:
    3K GDX
    2K JNUG.

    And got paid today already 🙂

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