266 thoughts on “The top when it comes will be a megaphone pattern

  1. Spanky

    Do you think it is possible the market chops around up until the next FOMC meeting in late March? In 2016, the Dow, commodities and the miners all bottomed at the same time–a few weeks after the Dec 15 FOMC meeting (the first rate hike). bond yields also started falling in earnest at the same time (sell the news?).

    Might we see something similar unfolding now, with bond yields rising into that meeting and then falling afterwards? Would that be enough time for a short IC in gold?

  2. Gary Post author

    I’ll say it again. The time to buy is when you are scared.

    The problem is that almost no one can fight their emotions.

    Undercuts are normal. They happen at probably 50% of ICL’s. Price makes a lower low but the NYMO diverges signaling that the bottom is forming. Most people will panic during an undercut. It will cement in their brain that the market is rolling over. This prevents them from buying for a long time after the undercut has been reversed. (They miss the best part of the intermediate cycle)

    This is not going to be any different than any of the 16 other ICL’s that have come before it. Two months from now no one will even remember this correction, just like no one remembers the previous 16 ICL’s of this bull market.

    10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

    1. ziasDad

      Dow down 1,032 points, over 4 percent. Scary? yes. Time to buy? That is the question. We will get a bounce, but how high and how long will it last before the next plunge? And will the next plunge go lower than today’s low?

  3. MrBurns

    Looks like being on the sidelines on January 31st wasn’t a “dangerous place” after all.

    TQQQ $30 lower now, UDOW $20 lower.

  4. Gary Post author

    Sentiment is getting bearish. An undercut should push it to extremes and that would build the fuel for the next leg up.

    1. MrBurns

      See this is what I don’t get, you don’t show people charts like this when markets are hitting all-time highs, telling everyone to pile in and not wait for a pullback.

      Now you say “sentiment is getting bearish”, well yes, no shit Sherlock, of course it is. Do you really think that 10% drop later is the place to start talking about “undercuts” when you were adamant people should go long and hold on for riches?

      Come on, at least admit you were wrong on that, man up and say your timing was definitely wrong.

      1. Gary Post author

        I explained this very carefully. At some point the market is going to go vertical. Worrying about a correction is going to cause most people to miss it. Without a crystal ball we don’t know when the parabolic phase will begin. We could have exited at any point during the last 5 months worrying about a correction, many did and missed the rally.

        I accepted the fact that going Old Turkey would mean we would have to weather a correction if it occurred. But Old Turkey guarantees we will catch all or most of the bubble when it comes.

        It’s much more important to me to make sure I catch the bubble than to worry about trying to avoid a correction that might or might not occur.

        Now if you have a working crystal ball and can tell me exactly when corrections and pullbacks are going to happen we can jettison the Old Turkey strategy and time every wiggle perfectly and exit at the exact top.

        We saw what happened to bitcoin during it’s bubble. There’s no way in hell I’m going to risk missing something like that because I’m worried about a normal correction. Bitcoin had lots of big corrections before going vertical.

        1. MrBurns

          For the sake of your subscribers, I hope you are right, even if partially so that they can recuperate what I imagine can only be qualified as gigantic losses at this point.

          Even a Nasdaq pop to 7,800 may be salvation for their accounts.

          1. Gary Post author

            How many times must I say this before it sinks in?

            10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

          2. MrBurns

            I think you have been saying this too many times to yourself Gary, doesn’t necessarily make it so.

          3. Gary Post author

            I’ve gone over all the traits that happen during normal ICL’s. nothing out of the ordinary is happening.

            Now if this was a left translated cycle then we should be worried.

            We just had a very long period of calm and now the market is throwing some volatility at us. It doesn’t mean anything unusual is happening.

            The rubber band just got really stretched to the calm side over the last year. Now it is snapping back in the other direction.

            Like I said, two months from now no one will even remember this YCL. Just like no one remembers the last 16 ICL’s.

          4. cazabrujas

            Mr. Burns- As a subscriber, I can tell you that if you followed Gary’s instructions, your account would not be in trouble at all. I gave a lot of gains with this drop, but still up more than 100% since October. So stop talking about things you know nothing about.

          5. TheSmartMoney

            Another subscriber here. Dittos. Account up over 120% since August 1.
            After reading this blog and the subscriber forum for a long time, I know why so very few people make money in the stock market. A former stockbroker here too for the 1987 crash. This isn’t day trading.

    2. vand

      I would say sentiment is just neutral. Could take another 2-3k off the Dow before it gets truly bearish, and that would inflict a lot of technical damage that would use up a lot of the bullish rebound just to repair.

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold did tag the 1308 support zone this morning. That is a potential spot for a DCL.

      I’m not willing to play the long side at this point though. We have massive gains in the metal portfolio and I’m not going to risk them with the potential for a short cycle scenario in gold.

      I’m probably just going to wait until the March FOMC meeting. That would be a potential spot for the next ICL in gold.

    1. Gary Post author

      I posted the sentiment levels above. We’re getting close. An undercut would create the extreme sentiment levels and set the stage for the next leg up.

      1. jacob2

        Suspect the undercut will occur at a lower level then anybody anticipates ( as previously posted). Don’t have to hit the exact bottom to buy. Late cyclical stocks, oil and steels almost there. Good luck

  5. Spanky

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say that based on the daily Ichimoku cloud for the US indexes, even if the stock market goes on to significantly higher highs from here (rather than just a marginal new high), it is going to chop around in a wide range for months. Too much damage was done to the cloud–notice how it tapers off drastically in March. Look back at the charts between 1997-2000 and the corrections during the final parabolic run never did this much damage to the cloud.

    And if price breaks below the Ichimoku cloud, things are going to get a hell of a lot more scary.


  6. nautique99

    Looks like Gold and miners are done going down. What do you think Gary, are they ready to go now ? This is also correlated with the YEN moving higher, possible break up.

  7. cdntrader

    10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

    Well Gary I am going to remember your repeated statement I put above. This will be a classic calling the top statement if the bear market has indeed begun..it probably has not BUT I would say there is a non significant chance that it has.

    Almost everyone even the bearish analysts are expecting a solid bounce now and no crash. So the market crashing in the next few days would actually shock the most people..bulls and bears alike. Given the fact we had an unprecedented run in the markets without a correction..given we hit record RSI values never seen before..given that investors sentiment reached mult decade highs..given the crypot currency mania which has busted..and given that even bearish analysts are reluctant to say a bear market is starting I would say maybe some caution is warranted and this isntjust another BTFD. We shall see..for the record..I bought quite a bit two days ago playing the bounce but not anywhere near as confident or cocky as Gary is that a bounce is just around the corner.

    1. Gary Post author

      Like I said if the cycle was left translated then we should worry. It’s not though, it’s extremely right translated.

      And if you think central banks are just going to sit on the sidelines and watch everything deflate then I have some ocean front property here in Vegas I’d like to sell you.

      When ever the top does come it’s going to form as a megaphone as governments step in to rescue, so there’s no need to panic during the initial leg down. But this is not the initial leg down. It’s just some big volatility after a long period of calm.

      1. Spanky

        If we do go on to make higher highs from here, I don’t think there will be an explosion back into a parabola for some months. If we do just bolt to significant new highs from here (like say 30, 000+ on the Dow in a few weeks) it will be pretty unprecedented IMO. So if it happens, it will make your call all the more amazing.

  8. Bluebellkid

    Volume on the Nasdaq just went green. In other words it is now tracking higher than yesterday so maybe buyers are stepping in here. And I’m talking percentage – volume is 1.6% higher. Now up 2.07%

      1. Bluebellkid

        Just volume, Nasdaq volume is now running 6.18% higher than yesterday. Earlier the volume was down from yesterday which is a good sign. You don’t want to see the volume tracking higher than the day before on a big down day like we are having. Now, if the volume stays higher today than yesterday and this selloff holds then it adds another “distribution” day to the count which is already high which is not what Bulls want to see.

  9. Gary Post author

    Keep in mind there doesn’t have to be an undercut. Maybe 10-20% of the time you just get very volatile back and forth swings before the bulls take over and the next leg up begins.

    This another completely normal bottoming pattern. It’s a little too early to tell if this kind of bottom is forming. If we make a quick run back to the top of the Monday’s high then the odds would increase that this is happening.

  10. Gary Post author

    We just turned green on our oil trade. 🙂

    Many people panicked during this one as well.

  11. Nada

    Damn it. Gold is going to stop the return of Shortin Sally. Looks like tomorrow, the requirements for a swing will be sustainable. We got that bounce after a retracement of .50, I honestly thought the DCL would not trigger until .618. The dollar ran into some big resistance and my analysis of its behavior this morning, sucks.

  12. isavage

    100% retrace on the EU Stoxx Dax undercut & US holding “strong” maybe that’s it for the USA Index’s

  13. roadrunner

    gary..you mentioned above. ” I’m probably just going to wait until the March FOMC meeting. That would be a potential spot for the next ICL in gold.”

    When you say march for an ICL, that is the end of the IC from the Dec 12 ’17?

      1. roadrunner

        i am not sure i follow Nada. my understanding is that gold IC is 8-15 weeks. if this IC began Dec 12 ’17, then bottoming in late march is 12-13 weeks. Would that not be normal?

  14. Jake

    For all you ThinkorSwim users out there:

    Is there a tool that can measure the percentage value of a move?

    In other words, click it on the top of a move and then the bottom of a move and get a readout as to how much the move was in percentage terms?

    I’ve been messing with every tool I can find without luck. It’s probably right in front of my nose though!

    1. BeachandBiscuits

      I don’t know, but I’ve found ToS realtime online support pretty helpful for questions like this. Some good YouTube videos on ToS setups and functions too, but may be tough to search for something as specific as this on YT?

      1. Jake


        I got one of the guys who was in a department that was brought over from Scott Trade on that acquisition and he did not believe there was such a tool, but he did have a guy in the group who told him that you could change the price readout on the right hand side to a percentage readout by clicking on the symbol in the upper right corner of the chart area that looks like a squiggle between two lines. Click that and select the item towards the bottom that says “Show price as percentage”.

        That was all he had to offer, but I found that if I did that and then selected the Fib. tool, that when drawing a retracement that the indication on the right hand side of the Fib. tool would now readout in percentage terms for the move!

        1. BeachandBiscuits

          Good to know. Thanks.

          Now if I can just figure out how to zoom in and out with my mouse only, lol. Have a chat request in, but no one available yet.

        2. Jake

          Never mind, it appears that the percentage readout from the fib tool is just a reflection of the right hand scale position and not relative to the move.

          1. BeachandBiscuits

            Yeah, a lot of people rave about ToS, but IMO it’s a little kludgy with a not so great UI…but I’ve been using it a long time, so could be wrong.

          2. Jake

            I agree on the kludgy thing! It also seems to sporadically have fits where it slows way down and gives error messages. I’m on a mac, so perhaps it’s a bit smoother on a windows machine.

            It’s great to have charting and trading in one package though and that aspect of it, at least for my uses, is very well implemented.

    1. isavage

      Gary congrats with your oil Trade. are you holding or closing out here? most seem to be calling a bottom. further pos short squeeze potential with record Commercial shorts. what do you think??

  15. ras

    sm letter writers tend to concentrate on the buy side. It is rare for them to blow a whistle at tops. First, they and their customers need to exit. Others come last, if ever. That is the nature of the beast. When it comes to selling, every player is on his own. This is a free blog, just a sounding board and nothing more. This is common occurrence: advertising good calls, sweeping bad calls under the rug or give some after the fact rationalisation.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t know about others but I post both entries and exits. Sometimes I get it perfect. (gold trades over the last year). Sometimes not. (A little early on the oil trade recently).

  16. x33e

    “10,000 is going to be a piece of cake.”

    Yet you seem unwilling to specify which kind of cake. Chocolate cake? Cheesecake? Red Velvet cake? Pineapple Upside-Down cake? Butter cake? Angel Food cake? Pound cake? Sponge cake? Bundt cake? Or pancake? Perhaps this vital information is reserved for subscribers.

    In 1987, Peter Eliades told his subscribers that the stock market technicals looked so unusually favorable that they should just buy and “go to the beach”. They drowned. Granville did something similar on the short side in 1982. And Prechter lost most of his subscriber base when he went heavily leveraged long on “amazingly bullish” gold right before it was annihilated. The guru graveyard is littered with the bones of those who forecast sure things. I hope NDX does reach 10,000 by June, and am eagerly awaiting an undercut low accompanied by a momentum reversal for a disciplined long entry with a sell stop in place. But in market history, “piece of cake” frequently turns out to be “piece of crap”. You are to be commended for going out on a limb, and if you are vindicated your reputation will be deservedly enhanced. I simply hope that any trading neophytes who read this blog do not equate “piece of cake” with “no need for risk management”. Those of us who do this for a living can forget that most amateur traders are clueless about the basics of trading. In this game, just one lapse of discipline can become a nightmare.

  17. Don

    SOX , SMH (semis) are now negative YTD after being a market leader for years. Probably means nothing.

  18. allthatglitters

    I guess I’m what you might call old turkey now on the JNUG, haha. If I didn’t sell at $20 I sure as h ain’t gonna sell at $13. In this for the long haul.

    Will obviously be very encouraging for Gold’s prospects in 2018 if $1300 holds as support.

    1. Vintana

      …and the selloff is orderly with high volume…not looking forward to the higher volume race to the bottom.

  19. vand

    The maths is fairly simple.. at the 2007 peak the Dow was 14k; at last month’s peak it was double that. Has the US economy doubled in size since 2007? Has the average salary doubled since 2007? Have corporate profits doubled since 2007?

  20. Gary Post author

    We saw this same sentiment during the gold decline in 2016. Everyone was convinced gold was going back below $1000. As usual I was right then as well and we made some good money off the IC rally.

    Amateurs just always get it wrong during these pullbacks. The aren’t capable of thinking logically during corrections.

    This is not how markets top.

    Oh well the herd has to make the same mistakes over and over. Who else will the smart money fleece?

    Rule #1: the time to buy is when you are scared.

    Not only did no one sell short at the top (no one saw this coming) in the challenge. But only a few have bought. I’m one of the buyers. I’m always on the opposite side of the boat at these major contrarian events.

    I’d like to see sentiment tag extreme tonight. It probably will if we close down.

    1. Gary Post author

      It just doesn’t matter how many times I get these right, no one ever listens to me.

      Folks you have to buy the undercut if it occurs.

      1. MrBurns

        Gary, you also saw Silver going above $50 when in fact it crashed, and called for Equities to crash a few years ago while they went up for like 5 years.

        So don’t forget that you are not “Mr 100% Correct”.

        As I type this, Dow Jones has given up 600 points intraday.

        1. Gary Post author

          I certainly didn’t see the manipulation in the silver market but we got out without any major losses. Exited in January of 2013.

          I also underestimated the power of QE. It caused the 4 year cycle to become a 7 YC.

          But I’m not wrong on this one. This is just a YCL after a long period of low volatility. Besides there’s no way central banks just sit on the sidelines and let everything collapse.

          Once it’s over we’re heading to 10,000. It’s time to buy, buy buy. If you can time the exact bottom great. But it’s close enough that one is going to make a ton of money during the next cycle.

          1. MrBurns

            We can always blame another entity after the fact, it’s the easiest thing to do.

            Anyway, I said it before, equities should retest the all-time highs but a choppier rise in the next few months instead of a V recovery.

          2. MrBurns

            As I said, for the sake of your subscribers, I hope it is (although hope, like prayer, does nothing in reality).

            To reiterate, i see a longer term flatter recovery and not a “V” shape. Maybe retest of highs in June or so.

      2. cdntrader

        Gary you have also made some pretty poor calls..I used to subscribe to you and you made a lot of bad calls. The problemwith you is that when you get a few good calls then you get arrogant and cocky like right now and thats your downfall. Anyone guaranteeing Nasdaq at 10000 within a few months is on the arrogant side. Nobody is that good to call a parabolic 50 percent rise within a few months..

        1. Gary Post author

          LOL you either didn’t follow my calls or only traded the energy portfolio.

          Over the last two years the stock portfolio is up roughly 170%.
          The metal portfolio is over 288%.

          1. Gary Post author

            And the call is Nasdaq 10,000 based on the 15 year consolidation and breakout.

            By the end of March or April is a bet I have with Goild and BG. I think we are entering the final bubble phase. If so then we should see huge gains very quickly. If we don’t then it means this is much bigger than I expected and we still have years to go before the final top.

          2. cdntrader

            You have done well lately but so has a lot of dumb money who just keep throwing money into the Nasdaq. A lot of bad investors made a killing buying internet stocks in 1999 and then gave it all away on the collapse. So we shall see..

  21. jskauai

    Well I’ve decided to hold my weed stocks and roll one up and smoke it….fast forward to some unknown date…Gary, “folks time to sell your stocks and buy gold and miners. Gold going to $5,000 will be a piece cake and 10,000 is not out of the question.”…What a day for daydream…

  22. Infamous_M

    Gary your statement of “Amateurs just always get it wrong during these pullbacks. The aren’t capable of thinking logically during corrections. “. Does that apply to what we’re seeing in miners currently? Should we buy since people are scared to enter?

    1. Gary Post author

      Well we aren’t at a major ICL in metals just yet. When we get there sentiment will be the same as it is in stocks right now.

      Metals are due for a DCL sometime soon though. I’m just not sure if it will be left translated.

  23. Bluebellkid

    The markets can rally now I’m out! Volume is up 9% on the Nasdaq and just went green on the DOW so this will no doubt be another distribution day, unless the markets somehow go green.

    1. Gary Post author

      Technical tools aren’t going to help you during a YCL. You need to monitor sentiment and cycles.

  24. GMoney

    Retail investors have been diving into this market hand over fist over the past year. As is always the case, once enough retail enters the market the plug is pulled – this is how Bag Holders are made.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well they aren’t really bag holders as this isn’t the top. But… most will sell at the bottom. That’s what amateurs do. They panic at bottoms.

      Ever wonder why the COT gets more bullish as price drops and more bearish as price rises? It’s because smart money behaves differently than retail. It’s why they make money and most individual traders lose it.

  25. Nada

    Here come the institutional buyers.. Huge contracts on /ES, lets see if they can bounce or if they will use to sell into.

  26. carlvan

    It is surely wishful thinking as I entered NQ contracts yesterday but…look at the attached SPY 5′ chart: all the stops since the bottom of Feb 6 have been taken out since the opening today (the red rectangle on the chart). I say this was stops hunting to shot early buyers out of the game. Now that the last one (except the bottom of Feb 6) has been taken out, would now prices be allowed to rise again ?
    Just wondering, again it might be wishful thinking but that’s how stops are run by market makers and algo’s…
    (don’t pay attention to time axis, it’s on EU hours)


  27. Spanky

    Bill Dudley (the Fed) telling Americans the water is safe in the stock market. Honestly, I would take him at his word. Yellen and Bernanke both egged people on to buy stocks, and they were dead on because they knew. I can’t see a crash coming with Dudley’s bold words. He would be lynched if the market crashes and he knows it. Basically, “we got your back”. What else do you need to know? Sure there could be volatility, but its up up and away from here in all likelihood.


      1. Spanky

        The hell they don’t. They understand pitchforks and lamp posts better than most. We are in a post 2008 world now. If it crashes, they know its game over. The masters of the money supply are literally TELLING you to buy.

  28. Bluebellkid

    One phenomenon I have noticed before is when markets are say up in the am they will tend to pullback some during the lunch hour (11-1) and vice versa a market that is down will rally some at lunch time. Once lunch is over the rally resumes or the slide continues. It wont surprise me to see the markets near the lows of the day at the close.

        1. Don

          Ok, breakfast time for us in the west. Could it be that we are inclined not to trade during our breakfast and your lunch? Too busy eating ? LOL!

          1. Bluebellkid

            Another characteristic of markets in an uptrend is to open weak and close strong and if we are in a downtrend then markets tend to open strong then lose it all and go negative by the close. I’m pretty sure IBD will move the markets to “in correction” and we wait for a rally/confirmation or green light from the markets that it is safe to venture back in. Not all rally/confirmations have led to bull markets but no bull market has ever started without a rally/confirmation.

      1. Spanky

        Yep. This is technically the correct answer. The presumption I guess is that it makes a lower low.

        Does a left translated cycle have to make a lower low? If not I guess I spoke too soon.

  29. Nada

    TQQQ holders must be losing their shit right about now. Especially ones with a LOT invested, banking on the 10,000 piece of cake. I heard google is running out of space due to Gary’s inbox.

    1. Gary Post author

      It just depends on whether they are clueless novice traders that don’t know what’s happening or whether they are an experienced trader that’s seen this many times before.

      I’ve seen 20 years of ICL’s so I’m not freaking out at all. Just waiting patiently for this to pass. Once it does the next intermediate cycle should be a doozie.

      1. Nada

        Make no mistake, I am not saying you made a bad call or the wrong one. I am just guessing your inbox is being blown up 🙂

  30. Anthonyo

    It seems no matter how much oil falls it is still magically over $60!! digsuting really.

    $55 is minimum downside target.
    $49 is best.

    Gary what is your downside target in oil with time?

    1. itsinthedna

      Oil would not be declining if increasing interest rates and inflation were the fear- it would be rising.

      This is just short term profit taking. I think Oil will double from here.

      1. Anthonyo

        Oil will have an even more devastating decline to come. I said this when it was at $67 in these pages too. $49 would be being nice about it.

        Your doubling wish can only happen if war against Iran regime starts… or there is a multi-national sea fleet blockading the Persian gulf or both.

        Fundamentally, oil is a relic and will increasingly become more of a relic. US shale production is now more than Saudi Arabia.
        Supply: The world is awash in oil. The only reason it went to $67 was due to Saudi manipulation as they are in dire need for cash to pay their subsidies to their citizens and for beefing up their military in case they will need to confront Iran regime down the road.
        Now the balloon is deflating and it aint down deflating either.

  31. Don

    Maybe those who jumped into the markets expecting to profit from Gary’s absolutely-will-happen parabolic rise should have been using January’s strength to sell, not buy. Yeah, I know, 10,000 will be a piece of cake……

  32. primetime

    So many negative nellies……we just need JJ’s most recent input. Why try to antagonize people with emotional B.S. Needed money should not be in the market anyway….and if you lose, just make some more.

  33. Jim Dandy

    If there is to be an undercut, it would be better to happen today, rather than in the morning where it could scare people all day long and before a weekend, I would think.

    1. Anthonyo

      This ain’t no undercut, why minimize it by tagging it as an undercut/
      If I am right Wave 5 down is gonna do some denting, and it ain’t gonna be today or tomorrow done either.

      Scared: that’s another thing, No One is scared…!
      Deep corrections do not end when no one is scared.

  34. Anthonyo

    Yours truly closed UDOW and XIV last night before market closed and switched to SDOW as announced here in previous post.

    Wave 5 down is upon us… Undercut is one thing, but this here thing could become extensive without harming the bubble bull to follow after this Wave 5 has runs its course.

    Stretching rubber band could become even more stretched to the downside.

    S&P 2,400-ish and Dow to roughly 22,500 are extreme downside “targets” cannot be ruled out.
    I cannot be blamed for not mentioning it, if it occurs.
    Wave 5 downwaves are usually viscous and longer(extensive).
    All it takes is a bond market micro-stroke and down we go to those extreme targets.

    Bull bubble parabolic animal can wait to resume at lower levels after this here thing is over, and it ain’t gonna be over today either.

    Scared: that’s another thing, No One is scared…!
    Deep corrections do not end when no one is scared.

    1. cdntrader

      It does seem that everyone including Gary is expecting the parabolic move to just start again in 1-2 weeks and then off to new highs..we shall see what Mr.Market thinks about that

    2. carlvan

      Anthonyo, why don’t you just attach a chart to illustrate your EW count please? Would make things easier to allow a discussion, and not just burst of emotion

    1. Jim Dandy

      From you chart, I would at least like to see gold pull back to the $1277 area. The way miners have lagged, a move like that could be devastating to them, they really should be doing much better with the market weakness.

      Take a look at the leaders like FNV, been clobbered. Sure they are due for a bounce, but I wouldn´t expect much with how they have performed lately, and I would certainly be a seller into the bounce.

      1. Anthonyo

        It may behoove those holding LONGs in gold, silver, and miners to liquidate at a loss and then go LONG US stocks after this here thang deep corrections runs its course…and the bull parabola vertically mobile animal is back after this here thar correction is over.

    1. Anthonyo

      Da misnomer “undercut” could become a “under throat cut” instead of just an undercut.
      Watch Mister Market closely; he is never wrong.

  35. GMoney

    Never before has there been so much margin in the stock market. And folks, today is what it looks like when it unwinds. We aren’t anywhere near the bottom. Tomorrow forced leverage liquidation begins in earnest. Enjoy 🙂

  36. Nada

    hehe, love it. The bear in me loves RED candles. Going to be fun watching this one play out. VXX (the one that matters is going ape shit)

  37. Anthonyo

    Dudes, a minus -1032 point Dow event ain’t no “undercut”.

    An average of minus -4% fall across the board on the Dow, SPX, and NASADAQ: they all fell IN TANDEM today…this means it ain’t over going down just yet.

  38. Don

    The S&P is now down to where it was back on Nov 1. Three months of “parabolic” gains gone in nine days of trading. Of course everyone switched from TQQQ to SQQQ in the nick of time. No losses.

  39. Jelly Belly

    The problem with the mega-phone theory is that Central Banks don’t have the ammunition they used to have.

    1. BeachandBiscuits

      They can create unlimited money to buy stocks, bonds, houses, raffle tickets or whatever they want and do so in ways that aren’t immediately visible to the pubic. (see the SNB and BoJ…and the ECB with corporates and who knows, maybe even stocks)

      They can order banks to buy government debt to drive down interest rates.

      They can do helicopter money to consumers if needed (remember the Bush $300 checks in the mail?)

      They have more than enough ammo.

      What’s getting a little short and will IMO eventually cause the true crash and reset is CONFIDENCE in them by the big money/ smart money. If they lose that, bonds spike, gold spikes and stocks sell off, fast.

      We’re not there yet, but this is the first time in a long time I think that we can see the start of an outline of that happening. Not yet though, IMO.

    1. Spanky

      It’ll probably sell off with the SM like in 2008. You know, people need to cover SM margin calls with something liquid, or so the story goes.

  40. Nada

    So $SPX and $COMPQ made lower lows, but $INDU has yet to extend the same courtesy. Hell, it took 9 trading days to erase 2018 gains. I believe I mentioned to Anthonyo that 2 weeks would be the number. Well the markets outperformed by 1 day.

    1. Anthonyo

      This here thang proved itself a raging serial killer today, and the way Wave 4 up before today was tortured in its advance too spells the strength of the bear…
      in a week this thar correction could be over….but boy, if I am right it could make a real dent in the averages.

      Meanwhile, the PPT and the parabola are both chained in the basement waiting for their another day in da sun.

  41. Anthonyo

    Meanwhile, the PPT and the parabola are both chained in the basement waiting for their another day in da sun.

    1. MrBurns

      NASDAQ 10,000 target was ‘just’ 30% away 10 days ago, now it’s 48% away. Next week it will be 80% away.

    1. Anthonyo

      Oh No Schiff!! He ruined this bear correction now! On the count of he is always dead wrong.

      I do agree with him on mega-bankers and Obama remnants inside Fed sabotaging Trump though.

      Remember the rout started Tuesday of last week, right before Turmp’s SOU speech.

  42. Gary Post author

    Waiting to see the sentiment levels tonight and the McClellan oscillator.

    We are getting the undercut.

  43. GMoney

    Anyone see a similarity between the first several days of the Bitcoin collapse and the last several days of the SPX?

        1. Gary Post author

          The intermediate uptrend line has been broken. That’s what is supposed to happen during ICL’s though so nothing wrong with that. This is one of the things that kicks out technical traders before the cycle bottoms.

          1. Anthonyo

            Hmmm looking at the chart the neighborhood of 2350-2400 looks like darn good support for this to go to.

        2. MrBurns

          I took it off the 2016 summer consolidation as a basing pattern. Your line says there’s another 350+ points to go down to the 50ma. Also, I find sticking to the body of a candle instead of thin line is a better indication of levels.

          From that point you’d need nearly 56% rise to meet the “10,000 by July” target which I can just about assure you would be improbable.

    1. MrBurns

      Almost anyway, it’s a good start to stem the flow soon. It will stop at a point, for the sake of all out there sooner than later.

      Maybe it’s Trump, crashing the market so his sheep don’t have any money and turn to him like the North Korean minions do to the fat boy.

    2. vand

      Gary, you yourself said technical indicators won’t help in this market and you need sentiment indicators. IMO general sentiment feels very similar to what it did around Jan 2008. Back then we had big falls foreshadowing a major trend change but everyone had been conditioned to expect eve rising stocks and business as usual to continue. The chances we have just seen a major multi-decade high have jumped about 20% today alone.

      1. Gary Post author

        No we don’t have max complacency yet. We just have a yearly cycle that is very mature at 24 weeks and due to bottom at any time.

        If we were only 15 or 16 weeks into the cycle then I would be extremely worried along with the rest of you. But that’s not the case. We’re running out of time in this cycle.

        1. Anthonyo


          Absolutely NO Panic,,,,NONE to be felt or seen.

          I say this here thar correction has another 2nd wind yet to go before fat lady sings.

          1. Gary Post author

            Short term sentiment on the Dow was at 2% bulls.

            The Vix was over 50.

            The NYMO was at -120.

            We’re getting 3-4% moves.

            Does that sound like no panic to you?

          2. Anthonyo

            All facts true,
            but I mean no palpable panic is being felt…MSM even is quite blasé on it.
            As though they are almost trying to make it look like nothing really.
            You don’t see the normal hoopla and “the world is ending” crap from MSM on this one.

          3. Gary Post author

            I’ve had several friends call me panicking about their portfolio.

            The public is always too bullish at tops and too bearish at bottoms.

            These are the same people by the way calling to ask me about bitcoin in December.

    3. ras

      spx weekly about to kiss ma 40 @ 2548. In November 2016, price kissed ma 40 at 2083 and price took off. This time?

    4. Bluebellkid

      Just barely oversold and if they stay oversold as long as they stayed overbought recently there is a lot more downside left.

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes when the trolls show up and become extremely confident that’s when it’s time for a turn.

      Remember the bitcoin trolls in December telling us how foolish we were for not buying the magic beans?

      The perma bear gold trolls in December?

      Clearly we aren’t done yet. But this is still just a very hard YCL. It’s not the beginning of a new bear. Once it’s done it will set the stage and fuel the next leg of the bull market. It should be one hell of a ride. But very few will be on board because this correction will have scared them to the point they won’t be able to pull the trigger until we are well into the next rally or parabolic phase.

  44. roadrunner

    Energy stocks have been beaten pretty good. XLE is down big. looks like it is right around the 200 day. anyone thinking this could be a bottom?

    1. Anthonyo

      Dont know about energy stocks, but I do not think we have seen WTI bottom, far from it.

      And if I am right and we have a healthy downwave to go yet in stocks before this here correction is done, WTI will be closer to $55 or lower by the time it’s over.

  45. Brady

    Gary, now that we’re getting an undercut, any guesses to how much lower it will go and when it will end?

  46. JohnnyComeLately

    Traders please be careful out there. I don’t have a crystal ball but I have many years of experience following SMT (as a paid subscriber years ago).

    Gary may be right this time but his overwhelming confidence reminds me of the overwhelming confidence he had during the silver crash years ago and I lost my shirt because I believed him without doing my own due diligence.

    I wish someone would have typed this message to me prior to that event.

    Due your own due diligence!

    1. Gary Post author

      Of course what you fail to mention is that we were set to exit silver Monday morning. Unfortunately they hit the market in the middle of the night and caught us before we could exit in time. Otherwise we would have had an absolutely perfect exit.

    2. vin

      JohnnyComeLately, No one can make money for us. They can only give us advise. What we do with it is our choice. If one makes money based on any advise then one keeps the profit. The same thing applies for the loss. No?

  47. Pennystocks

    Well, we may just POSSIBLY be seeing the beginning signs of the turn now . SOXL 3x of sox the leading semi conductor index closed at 122 .Now during after market it is trading at 129 !!!!!!!!!!! Stay tuned !

  48. palobar

    I have a strong feeling that precious metals are preparing to collapse. This is certainly not what one would expect from Gold, a $5 advance when the Dow drops 1000 points in a single day. Imagine what Gold would do when the dollar starts to rally. A strong indication that this might happen would be to see the gold/silver ratio close above the 83 mark at the end of the March. I see two possibilities:
    (a) a brief correction, that is a higher low compared to the Dec’17 low after which Gold moves substantially higher
    (b) Gold will retest the Dec’16 low

    Either way, I suspect, this is probably going to be the final pullback (minor or major).

  49. vin

    What a site? What a firework? BANG! I hope everyone is having fun and sticking to their guns.

    It is not the end of March yet! 10k is a piece of cake. By March? May be not. End of April? Or, may be the end of June? Gary has already told us to give ourselves enough rope i.e. till the end of the year. So, wait and enjoy. This kind of events in the market aren’t that common.

    Though tqqq and udow are a different game altogether. I hope those who have taken this risk understand this game. If I understand correctly Gary doesn’t own them.

    Good luck everyone.

    btw what is a better buy btc, SM or PM? Maybe all of them? Is it possible that in this inflationary environment they will all go up together. Gary is of the opinion that PM and SM will go up together. Is it possible that btc will also included?

    1. Bluebellkid

      Just listened to Gregory Mannarino and according to him money left the stock market and bond market and no sign of where it went. I know I left and it went to cash.

  50. primetime

    One thing I have learned over the years in dealing with thousands of people is very few possess any loyalty. They will turn on you in a drop of the hat and stab you right in the back! That is human nature. Just look at the mob mentality attacking Gary.

    1. Spanky

      It’s fear. And Gary has gotten extremely cockey several times in the past at the exact wrong time, e.g. the miners in late 2012, just before they tumbled into one of the most devastating bear markets in history. He taunted subscribers as the miners went over the edge, basically saying they were stupid to sell into an ICL (basically they exact same thing he is saying today). I remember it well.

      1. JJHarmen

        Spanky, I was thinking the same thing about Gary’s die-hard insistence that the Nasdaq is going parabolic after this sell off. What’s he going to say if it fails to do so? Oops?

    2. palobar


      You are so right about human nature. People will often forget and not appreciate as much as they should if you help them countless times. However, they will never forget that one time you hurt them.

      Attacking Gary about the stock market would be unfair because he managed this rally very well over the past months when most of the guys out there were screaming ”its going to crash”. But again, No one is perfect. Risk management is paramount. Master risk management and you will never be left at the mercy of the markets.

      1. Spanky

        What gary should have been telling people is not to use leverage at all at this point. I don’t care what you think is going to happen, when something goes parabolic, you should be paring positions on the way up and definitely not be leveraged. And maybe add just a bit back on days like today (but definitely just a portion of your gains).

        I agree with Gary, the Fed has your back. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Dow was sitting at new highs in a couple of months. But, nothing is guaranteed.

        I think we can all agree (?) that this is a mature bull market. It has clearly gone parabolic. Playing with 3xETFs is just dumb at this point. Be happy with what you have. People get too greedy

        1. palobar

          We have all been at this position many times. It all depends on the size of your trade. It is too large and the market moves against you, the damage will be big both financially and mentally. When that happens we try to find someone else to put the blame on. Even if you had a large or highly leveraged position there were signs of smoke all these days. I agree with many of your comments about the ETFs. Good luck with the next trade.

    3. vin

      primetime, people follow Gary to make money based on his advise. He has made some excellent calls and he has been appreciated for that. Though his recent call in which he showed incredible confidence and was sure that it is a start of a great bubble has many put their hard earned money into risky ventures such 3X and options.

      So, those who are hurt by his latest SM call want an answer. So far Gary is of the opinion that not much has changed. And, the SM is in a bubble. He may turn out to be right. But, those who have lost find it difficult to comprehend. It certainly is a carnage and it doesn’t look like it is going to turn around at the drop of the hat. In fact it looks quite ugly.

      All his followers badly want him to be right and he may very well turn out to be right, The jury is still out. But, it is quite fair for his followers to ask him of his thoughts at this juncture and if there are other possibilities than his “bubble” stand. And, could this be a start of one of the biggest market collapse? Please understand that the market ain’t cheap by any standard.

      btw I am one of his followers and I greatly admire his confidence. He is a brave man. But, that doesn’t change the fact that I am losing a bundle right now.

  51. Spanky

    I highly doubt we get a swing in gold tomorrow. Miners continue to get crushed, and the way the weekly GDX candle is shaping up, we will likely get follow through selling next week. Based on the nosebleed GLD:GDX rsi, however I expect miners to find some sort of local bottom next week. Fugly fugly stuff.

    Silver is in real danger of breaking down on the weekly chart. One wouldn’t expect it to with gold’s daily cycle bottoming any day now, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the banksters absolutely hammer it into oblivion. It’s sitting on the edge of the abyss on the weekly chart (certainly the December lows can easily be taken out). All it needs now is a gentle nudge.

      1. Spanky

        It’s not gold that I am worried about. It is silver. I am sure it will bounce with gold, but I am not sure what level it will be when that comes. A hell of a lot of damage can be done in a week or two. It just keeps negatively diverging from gold (underperforming). The silver miners (SIL) are now below the December low and they will be shorted mercilessly on any bounce now.

  52. jacob2


    Looks like I’m getting my 10 – 15 % correction that I’ve been posting about ….. forever ( at least a months worth). The good news a Few more days and done. Bad news a long rough consolidation follows. NO return trip to bubble land anytime soon. MArkets don’t work that way, Too many too badly burned. The market also changes with the NQ taking a back seat to commodities. Inflation. Want to buy DBC and energy stocks very soon.

    Make up your own mind on what’s best for YOU, but that’s my take.

    1. JJHarmen

      Anyone who has called for a correction in the past couple of years got it right. I guess crystal balls really do work.

    2. roadrunner

      yes you have been calling 2500 S&P for a while. maybe get there tomorrow, who knows. Hope you traded and didn’t just ‘call it’ as there would be some nice profit. good job.

      I have been looking at the energy stocks as well. been some really sell offs.

  53. JJHarmen

    I was thinking about buying back into LABD this morning but didn’t. O well. Funny thing is that even after today’s big move up for LABD, up 15%, it’s still not back to where I sold it (at 4.02) on Tuesday!

  54. Bluebellkid

    It looks like a pullback to the 200-day moving averages might be on the docket. The 200-day MA’s currently represent an 11% pullback for the Nasdaq and a 13% pullback for the S & P and that is off the recent highs not on top of what has happened. That’s not a long way from where the markets are now.

        1. palobar

          That is a realistic scenario. In my view, the big retest is at the 20000 which is a bit far away from here. Usually, these type of declines are followed by very sharp rallies.

    1. Don

      According to FINVIZ, 54.5% of all stocks are now below their 200 day SMAs. It’s amazing what a single bad week can do to a roaring bull market.

    1. Andy

      scare the hell out of who? no one cares about the silver market, let alone silver stocks. These companies are complete garbage fundamentally as the price of silver the metal is way too low for them to be able to mine it profitably. Just look at First Majestic….complete trash that doesn’t make ANY profit at these prices but trades close to $6 bucks…..no thanks. JMO

      I’ll buy the metal itself all day long, but I will never touch a silver miner.

      70% of silver comes as a by-product….meaning the gold or copper or zinc mines will sell it at any price since it’s just an offset to their AISC for their primary metal. Until it actually becomes scarce as a by product credit, were going nowhere.

      1. Vortex

        you are correct on the miners. The sector and 95% of the explorers/producers have been destroyed. The bankers have achieved their goals.

        Miners are the equivalent of a giant turd in the middle of the swimming pool. Everyone has ran from the pool and won’t touch this crapfest of a sector with a ten foot pole.

        I doubt it will ever return to its former glory.

    2. Don

      Really Andy? Who would it scare? Solar panel manufacturers, coin collectors, and the jewelry industry would love to see 15 bucks. Ten bucks would really put a smile on their faces. On the other hand, someone holding USLV might be a bit concerned.

  55. Goild

    Daddy, daddy,

    You lost the house betting on the SM bubble and all the money in the retirement accounts.
    I will tell mom right away.
    Wait till she gets back to you…

  56. Goild

    What a big pity, yes a big pity.

    We missed one of the great trades of the year. Of course the UVXY trade.
    Hope we learn from this one and have a solid plan for the next big trading opportunity.

    Where are the experts?

    1. Don

      Goild, you were the “expert” with respect to UVXY and you blew it big time. It was a good guess though.

  57. Goild

    As per the miners…

    Well palladium has been severely punished.
    Silver a great deal too.
    Gold is the one that is punished the least.

    Today we had a picayune (after ras) bounce.
    More pain may come still.
    Though in view of the SM loss today, the miners did pretty well.
    Probably they did not sleep last night with the SM.

    I sold 1K JUNG shares to reduce risk.
    I am comfortable carrying 3K GDX and 2K JNUG shares. And do not want to miss the next rally which can be the good one.

    As per the SM market, I think it is a good time to take it easy and wait anywhere from 6 to 18 months to let it sink properly, or to let it go sideways.

    The party is over. Yes over.
    The easy money is no longer available.

  58. Spanky

    Big divergence in yen ($XJY) and the $hui. Usually, these move more or less in lockstep, but as of February the relationship has fallen apart, with the yen actually moving higher and the miners getting absolutely raped. This is more or less what happened in early January 2016. The miners dropped somthing like 20% in 2 weeks while the yen moved higher. The miners bottomed on January 19 (iirc) and the rest is history. Does history repeat? Probably not. But I will say, one of these two indexes is being priced incorrectly right now.


  59. Goild


    Thanks for the chart.
    Yes the miners bottomed on January 2016 along with the SM.
    Gold had already started to take off and was ahead of the miners till the picked up the run.
    That the yen is ahead might be a good sign.

    The motto is now: Do not miss the next miner’s rally.

  60. primetime

    Hey Bluebellkid,

    Just wanted to let you know I appreciate your analysis, thoughts, and level headedness. It is refreshing maturity when surrounded by some of these clowns. Heading on home, have a great night.

  61. ras

    Keeping personal opinions aside, several indicators which go to extreme values on the downside during market declines are flashing that we are near an important buy zone. I encourage everyone to do their own due diligence. I will not be surprised if Gary comes back in a few days and tell us one more time “I told you so”.

  62. Goild

    Giving back the gains from December and January is not a big deal, just a small correction.
    There has not been extreme fear.
    A drop of at least 20% to 30% would seems reasonable.
    Bad news usually come together. Let us wait for them and we may have real fear.
    A correction may last easily 3 months.
    We shall see.

  63. Jim Dandy

    I am not going to pile on Gary just because he is down on a trade recommendation, to buy the stock market is what his system said so he did it like he is supposed to do. Not only that, he has been on a really hot streak lately, so either stand aside or take the trade and refrain from whining too much.

    As far as observations and a guess of what might happen next, while there is lots of bellyaching about this recent trade, reading through all the comments it seems very few have capitulated and sold yet. This suggests more pain in the near future, if not tomorrow. I don´t see the extreme fear just yet.

    Those that followed Gary into a trade should follow him out of the trade when he pulls the trigger. It is almost always a losing strategy to follow a plan half way. The odds say Gary will be right again, even if he ends up with a losing trade this time. Bet size is what gets people into trouble, not incorrect directional calls.

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