108 thoughts on “March 7 Forum

      1. Gary Post author

        A B wave bounce has nothing to do with EW.

        I’ve just noted that ICL’s usually unfold as at least 3 waves (or more) before the final bottom. Traders should be aware of that and refrain from getting too bullish on the first rally attempt.

    1. onerobot

      Everywhere I look I’m counting 8 weeks min. 11 weeks max before JNUG bottoms out. I’m wondering if we’ll get a 3 month bottoming cycle in the SM. similar to 2010 & 2011. Just sayin’

  1. bigglaze

    Alot of damage seems to have been mitigated over last night in the futures. The bears have no pulls left. …although the DOW seems to be a bit stubborn.

    1. ziasDad

      too early to tell yet. The rally from the open has closed the opening gap down, so now the question is: Is that it, do we go lower from here? Or continue higher? So far, we’ve headed lower since the gap close.

  2. Goild

    With the dollar struggling and the market uncertainty is hard to believe GOLD is diving.
    GLD is advertising as a way to diversify which is a good sign.
    The miners are showing refreshing signs and thus the expectation is to go up.

    Let us make money today!

          1. Christian

            Not a Subscriber — Just a big old stubborn bearcub who enjoys fine wine and women 🙂

  3. JJHarmen

    It looks like we are going to get a downside opening gap but I wouldn’t count on the SM to close up today, like it usually does on bad news. Cohn was a real asset for Wall Street.

    1. RTTPD

      Thanks. “Cohn was a real asset for Wall Street.”

      Dyed in wool globalist – which means main street continues to be hollowed-out with policy driven by him.

      Next guy to hopefully go – Destro – aka : McMaster

      Another bald boob who wants to throw more borrowed cash into Syria, to feed the military industrial complex and do the dirty work for Israel.

      Good riddance!

  4. Goild

    At the open I will be adding 250 GLD shares to my position.
    I cannot go wrong, I think.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would argue that the retail crowd is the dumb money that has been waiting for the next shoe to drop for the last 9 years.

      1. ras

        You could be right Gary. To survive in the market, it is important to hold 2 diametrically opposite views simultaneously and still function effectively. Continued under performance in nya could be a cause for concern unless it gets resolved soon.

  5. Gary Post author

    The semi’s are the leaders. Once they breakout above 1400 they will be like the Nasdaq when it broke out above 5100.

    They can go a long way and the rest of the market should follow.

    1. Don

      The semis and tech stocks are the strongest sectors this morning. Any rally should put them in the green.

  6. carlvan

    SM: we are not out of the woods yet; the overnight gap down of stock indiexes is just being filled, we might go down again, and SOX has an opening gap down as well just being filled. If they continue up after the fill, I believe the correction is over; otherwise…watch out reversal

  7. ras

    Sm resembles a one legged stool, with nas doing all the heavy lifting like the lone ranger. Spy grinding up higher to 278 or all the way up to 286? No zip in uvxy unless a 2nd down leg shapes up taking dow down to a new low around 22, 500 or so in a c wave?

    gld could get interesting around 121 in a 3rd leg down?

  8. Christian

    GARY — If the DOW fails to break to new highs with the rest of the Market over the next couple of weeks and rolls over into a DCL, then we’re looking at a FAILED DAILY CYCLE.

    Your thoughts on this?

  9. Don

    After being down 1% at the opening, the Biotechs (XBI)are now up .30%. Anyone gutsy enough to buy LABU?

    1. vin

      sold all the LABU I had and bought INDL

      Will buy LABU if it goes below 90, in fact I am looking for 87.87

      1. Bluebellkid

        INDL is looking pretty weak and 50 day is turning down. LABU is just above the buy zone so not extended at this point. The lows of the day are above the 5 day so that seems to be support so far. The 50 day (92.99) and middle BB (91.62) would be next support.

        1. vin

          Thanks Bluebellkid.

          Point taken. But, at this stage I believe that labu will come down before it resumes its upward march again, provided the SM doesn’t go up vertically up from here in a parabolic fashion.

          indl does look extremely weak here and I think it has to do with the Indian politics which is impossible to understand. Economically India is very strong. Growth rate higher than the Chinese.

          Fear is paramount here. But, if Gary’s predictions materialize this sucker should perform extremely well, particularly if high tech and bio techs are the leaders. That is my hope.

  10. Don

    With Dennis Gartman going short yesterday, the probability that the SM will go up is high. Gartman is the best (contrary)indicator we have.

  11. Gary Post author

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say we’ll have to wait for next week before the semis can break out on a sustained basis.

  12. Don

    Since this 9 year bull market began back in 2009, the strongest sector has not been the semi-conductors as one might think, but rather the biotechs which are up over 500% and are still doing quite well today.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve always said that I thought biotech was where the Innovation was going to come from during this bull market. I’m just a bit nervous about owning that sector during an election year as the politicians tend to beat on it to garner the silver vote.

  13. Don

    Wow, what a ride the biotechs are on today. If XBI takes out the day’s lows, I expect the entire market will be in trouble. The semis are looking a bit shaky also.

    1. Gary Post author

      Like I said, we’re going to have to wait till next week before we can get a break out on the semis.

  14. JJHarmen

    Hey Don, are you still holding PGC? I am thinking of taking my 400% profit and calling it a day. It doesn’t appear to going any where.

    1. Don

      JJ: Reduced PGC to 200 thousand shares. I only paid half cent for them so even if they go to zero, no big loss. I did well enough on 600 thousand. I think there is still a chance for a pump and dump operation although it may not happen until gold takes off, when ever that might be.

  15. JJHarmen

    By the dip isn’t working out so well for the retail kids although the day is far from over. I still expect the day will be a down day followed by further weakness in the days ahead.

    1. Don

      I don’t think buying the dip is what the smart money is doing anymore but that’s just a guess, who really knows? Gary? Christian?

  16. Lemonjelly Junior

    Market is throwing us around, wild swings done up down again…Bouncing between 10 and 20 dma
    Cohn leaving an excuse, messy market’s got issues, no traction up or down.
    S&P 500 it has gone down to the neighborhood of previous lows 2 times now since last night…

  17. Don

    Biotechs motoring back up towards the days highs. I think this is the sector to watch for SM direction and not the semis.

  18. Spanky

    There is potentially a major breakdown coming in silver. I can’t see it holding on here as gold gets smashed into the next ICL. It will be breaking below every single significant moving average out to the monthly chart, including the 200 month MA. Sure it could be playable on a bounce out of the next ICL, but a tremendous amount of chart damage will have been inflicted. It could be basing out for 10 more years for all we will know at that point. What a total dud. I’m sorry but its hard to make a case for a new bull market in mining stocks if that scenario plays out.

    1. Gary Post author

      The metals are moving into the whipsaw part of the cycle. The banksters will fleece both bulls and bears for a couple of weeks. Nothing will follow through and they will turn the market back and forth to rob everyone trying to pick a direction.

      1. Spanky

        Well, like I said, silver is hanging on for dear life here and it would be so so easy to get a cascade of selling. Even if the blood bath phase is 1-2 weeks long, a hell of a lot of damage is going to be inflicted.

        Basically, given where we are in the cycle and how much further gold could potentially fall given the nosebleed CoTs, there is almost no chance silver can save itself. I just don’t see it. Anyone thinking its going to stay flat as gold tanks is nuts.

        1. Gary Post author

          Gold isn’t going to tank. At most it may retest the 200 DMA or the 100 week moving average.

          The dollar is finished and so far the counter trend bounce is very weak.

          I would say the banks are just manufacturing really good entry prices during this ICL.

          Like I always say, take everything with a grain of salt in this heavily manipulated sector.

        1. Bluebellkid

          All you seem to do is jump in and criticize or ask Gary to hold your hand so you can make a trade. Surely, there is more to you that than. And by the way every single position I own is green today so yes I can make money even in down markets dude!

      1. Spanky

        I’ll bet the large specs were net short during the 80-95 bear market and the commercials were net long. No one has data going back that far though.

        So I don’t necessarily see this inversion as a good sign.

          1. Spanky

            In any event, if you look at $silver CoTs between July 2014 and Nov. 2014, the commercials had extremely small short positions, yet price tanked from about $19 to $16. The commercials’ short positions actually increased into that low.

            So the fact that commercials are barely short right now is meaningless. Couple that with the fact that gold’s CoTs are bearish right now probably means silver is going significantly lower and IMO is potentially going to be trending lower from here over the very long run. And yes, I acknowledge we can get a significant bounce at the next ICL.

    1. Americano

      C’mon victor.
      I’m on The Mayflower –
      So of course it’s clear….
      But come $25K June & 50K end o’ year –
      You’ll be crying in your beer !

      1. Bluebellkid

        You keep touting that but do you have any basis for making those assumptions? To me it is just hope and hype but that’s just me.

        1. Jim Dandy

          He´s just here to repeat the same thing over and over with no supporting facts or arguments, just his targets, in the hopes of drumming up some fools dumber than him to bid up his tokens so he can unload them, all in the hopes of getting rich quickly.

          Good luck finding people that stupid, just about everybody understands a busted parabola is done for years. That´s why they play out like they do, waning interest over time as new people don´t come in, and the only clowns still trading it then are the ones with broken dreams (and wallets). It takes a couple years down the backside of that parabola before a guy like Americano realizes he got smoked again.

          1. Gary Post author

            If the ultra wealthy are silly enough to buy magic beans then they are on track to go from super wealthy to super poor.

  19. Spanky

    Also consider the 2016 high in the gold:silver ratio is close to being taken out. Why the hell would that occur if we were truly in a metal bull? Over the last 7 years, silver has been absolute garbage save for about 5 months in 2016.

    It’s arguable that that ratio is leading the way for the whole commodity complex–that is, lower.

  20. Lemonjelly Junior

    The US dollar is finished?
    If I had 10,000 Euros or bitcoins every time I heard that doom and gloomer statement since 2007…
    It doesn’t pay to be anti US.
    According to them the US Dollar has been dying, going to zero of the same stroke for 10 years now.

    1. Gary Post author

      All markets move in cycles. It’s time for the dollar to enter a bear cycle. They usually last about 7-8 years. But over the long term the dollar is, and remains in a very long term bear market.

      1. Lemonjelly Junior

        Gold was also in a protracted bear market for 25 years flat on its back after 1981 until early 2000s,….and again after 2011-2016?……does that mean gold is finished?

  21. victor

    Please realyse $50,000 US can’t be 1btc, you will never buy a $50k car for 1btc.
    Please take a profit and buy pc metals at the cycle bottom.
    Best wishes to you.

  22. Gary Post author

    The Russell was telling anyone who would listen the sell off was going to be temporary.

  23. Spanky

    If you look at $silver CoTs between July 2014 and Nov. 2014, the commercials had extremely small short positions, yet price tanked from about $19 to $16 when they had this tiny quantity of shorts. The commercial short position actually increased into that low.

    So the fact that commercials are barely short right now is meaningless. Couple that with the fact that gold’s CoTs are bearish right now probably means silver is going significantly lower and IMO is potentially going to be trending lower from here over the very long run. And yes, I acknowledge we can get a significant bounce at the next ICL.

    1. Bluebellkid

      I have no skin in the game as far as miners go. I’m just watching, reading, and listening to the different opinions out there.

    2. victor

      rising interest rate trend will influence strong inflation eventually. This ICL will be the end cycle low for metals for years to come. Good time coming for gold bugs…

        1. Gary Post author

          I covered the 3 year cycle in the CRB in a previous video. It’s not due until the summer of 2019. There should still be one more rally this fall that pushes the CRB above 200 before a larger degree correction into the 3 YCL.

      1. RTTPD

        Victor —–

        I didn’t get to respond to you on the other thread as I came back too late.

        I’ve owned and traded VFF three different times now since you mentioned it months ago.

        Took nice profits every time…..but this last time I thought it would really take off with the new license.

        They have a very dialed-in operation with lots of experience and a core business in the farming/food industry – so it’s perplexing why many of the other newly formed cannabis companies have bigger market caps and perform better.

        And I actually like EMH a little better from trading standpoint, as it seems to be much more volatile.

        Anyways…..thanks for the heads up mentioning these companies.

      1. vin

        WOW! Looks like I gave up some profit. Your analysis seems to be correct.

        I still hope to see it below 90 within a week. If not then I missed this one … though made up on INDL

  24. jacob2

    Not expecting much from the market for the rest of the year but if your going to continue to play the game long the tech sector continues to be the place to be. Bought some busted tech ipo’s last week, flying. Stock pickers market, my kind of market.

    1. Americano

      Bitcoin & ” The Dream Machine ” ( TQQQ )

      Are the Financial ” Bonnie & Clyde “

  25. Alexandru Popovici

    Hi, Gary!
    Your decision to limit the free service makes sense (I was wondering when it would come) and it comes as proof of your success: you have succeeded to raise your customer pool (using the free service as springboard) to your desired notch.

    On the other hand, this may reduce dramatically the discussions/comments on the free forum; maybe you’ve envisaged it and that’s why you say you will come in occasionally/rarely with the “fresh meat” of videos but in the end it is a natural and inexpensive trade-off for you.

  26. Alexandru Popovici

    It looks like we have at hand a shorting opportunity in Treasuries too, i.e. besides euro and PM.
    If they break down today, then I’ll go short –> the shorter the maturity the better, variance yields of 10y-1y treasuries has to turn negative down from +0.83% yesterday — a still looong way down for T-bills and shorter T-notes.
    But let’s have the break-down first.

    1. didier

      kobayashi, funny, the same mistery name as in the usual suspects
      zerohedge = fake news

  27. Vintana

    Looking like the market is dancing on the head of a pin today. Read that Trump is expected to make an announcement on the tariff deal at 3:30 today…certainly appears to be the reason for market to be indecisive.

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