256 thoughts on “MARKET WRAP: 10,000 IS STILL GOING TO BE A PIECE OF CAKE

      1. Gary Post author

        I think I made a pretty good case for why 10,000 is still ahead.

        How many other people do you know that are still bullish? Almost none. Everyone is jumping on the bear bandwagon.

        How many times have I been bullish at these major cycle lows when everyone else is bearish? Always.

        How many times have I been correct and everyone else wrong, and if they would have listened to me they would make a lot of money? Always.

  1. primetime

    Not even wasting my time watching this video. What year for the 10,000? Day trading is getting old. If you have conviction about this then why sell out? Going home for the night holding all my positions long and strong.

  2. GMoney

    Can someone remind Gary that in a few months the Fed will be up to 50 billion/month in reverse QE and the ECB will end QE in the fall. Nasdaq 10k is not going to happen in this environment. On top of that throw in a 3.5% yield on the 10 year and you have a toxic environment for stocks.

    1. Gary Post author

      Oh yes it will. 🙂

      And you’re going to miss the next 2500 points just like you missed the first 2500.

  3. Autobahn

    Gary does “piece of cake” mean it will get there kinda fast in 2-3 months let’s say ?
    Looks like crowd assumes that is the case.
    Otherwise they want it to be called something else lol

    1. BeachandBiscuits

      Same here Gary….I’m with your thesis it’s going to 10,000, but is that THIS year, regardless of whether it’s due to a bubble or long-term bull market?

    2. Gary Post author

      As I’ve been saying for quite some time my theory is that it will happen fairly quickly this year. I say that because I don’t think the insane monetary policy of the last nine years should produce a 20 year secular bull market. I think it should produce a bubble and then we’ll have to deal with the consequences when the bubble bursts.

      But I’ve also said I’m prepared to be wrong on this call if this intermediate cycle doesn’t really start to soar once the correction is finished. If not then I guess we really are in a secular bull that still has 10-15 more years to run.

      1. jacob2

        As you know, favor the trading range from hell scenario. The excesses of the 17 bull run will take time to work off. Cake would be great but not anytime soon.

        1. BlakeWill

          Greetings one and all. First post. Hope I add something to the discussion.
          Couldn’t help but notice, and find it a little concerning, that right after making the case that “we aren’t in a bubble because we haven’t gone up 100% in a year or anything crazy like that” that the next chart looked at was that of the SOX and I couldn’t help but notice the numbers on the side of the chart that showed the SOX had gone from a little under 700 to basically 1400 in about 18 months. Is that not bubble-type action or is that ok because it took 18 months to happen instead of a year? Just wondering. Also does valuation play a role in defining a bubble or just rate of rise? Finally, do things like Federal Reserve policy ever come into play or is that just all baked into the cake when doing chart analysis.

          1. Gary Post author

            There are several metrics I use to determine whether a market is in a bubble and at risk of popping.

            The single biggest one is general public opinion. Are we hearing unsophisticated investors everywhere talking about getting rich in the market? We did see that kind of sentiment in the bitcoin market in December indicating it was in a mature bubble and likely to pop soon. I haven’t heard the general public exhibiting that kind of complacency in about the stock market yet. So I don’t think we are at a bubble top yet. If the Nasdaq runs to 10,000 or higher by July then I think we will have the conditions for a mature bubble.

    3. didier

      The piece of cake, the there is no cake or the why did i forget to bring my diapers. That are the 3 possible scenarios in laymen’s terms.

      1. Gary Post author

        We don’t have the conditions yet for a long term top. Quit listening to the perma bears. They are still on the wrong side of the market. Once they all turn into bulls and I turn bearish then it will be time for a final market top.

        1. didier

          I’m joking. Nobody has a chrystal ball. If we make money, fantastic, if we lose money, inshallah, as the muslims say.

    1. Gary Post author

      It just means this yearly cycle low will be more extreme than previous ones. It’s not really that unusual considering we’ve had over a year of no volatility. The extreme calm is what produces the hard YCL.

      The rubber band got really stretched so to speak in the direction of no volatility and now it has to snap back for awhile.

    2. 0hio

      Starting to think this cycle theory is a hit or miss just like EW.
      Half cycle low arrived just a tad 12 weeks earlier. Yeah right

      1. Gary Post author

        The ICL arrived right in the normal timing band at 24 weeks. And the YCL is occurring almost exactly 12 months after the last one.

        I don’t see anything wrong with the cycle rhythms.

        Just because the market doesn’t give you what you want in the exact time that you want it doesn’t mean the tools are broken. The Nasdaq slingshot occurred just as predicted. Now we’re pulling back from a major resistance zone. I don’t see anything out of line at this point.

  4. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    It doesn’t look like it in this chart, but the September pullback was huge (almost 50%). It even fooled me into thinking the bubble had popped. In reality it just cleared sentiment and paved the way for the bubble that was to follow.

    A final parabolic move in the stock market is not by any means off the table. In fact a case could be made that this is exactly what we need to happen to prime the market for take off just like the September correction in bitcoin launched the final bubble.

  5. vin

    Gary, I have never taken a serious stand on this blog because being serious takes the fun out.

    But, right now I am going to make an exception.

    nasdaq WILL not reach 10k by June. I said this earlier but not very seriously. I had offered to take your 1k bet. But, you declined.

    Please do go back to the drawing board and provide your followers with some viable story. If the nasdaq goes to 10k by June then I would say the real smart money is real dum.

    1. Gary Post author

      So lets say the Nasdaq only goes to 8500 by July. Are you really going to be disappointed?

      1. vin

        Not really. But, it is not anything like 10k. And, 10k WILL not happen.

        It is always nice to be positive than to be negative. But a 10k piece of cake by the end of June would have been a rare event. Well …

        1. Gary Post author

          At 8500 that would be a 40% gain in TQQQ in less than half a year. Anyone that would be unhappy with that has got problems.

          1. Gary Post author

            And I can guarentee in real time everyone will be ecstatic with that kind of profit.

            Right now we just have people trying to find something to freak out about. No different than metal investors back in Dec. 2016.

            At the time everyone was negative. Now a year later for the few that could see more than just what was happening at that moment the reward has been gigantic.

            The ones that gave up missed out on a truly amazing run in the SMT metal portfolio.

          2. vin

            Gary, after listening to you for months after months about 10k piece of cake by the end of June your post is a double disappointment. Disappointments in the market aren’t that uncommon.

            But, you having moved away from such a strong position you have taken over the months is a much bigger disappointment.

            Just like that ….. WOW!

          3. Gary Post author

            Scroll up 6 comments.

            It’s foolish to think the bubble scenario is off the table just because this correction is lasting longer than some would like.

  6. victor

    guys, why so much talking abt those 10k? look at the stock market since 30th, it’s going up and up by the way, 10 k on Nasdaq is inevitable. June? it depends…, but this year surely we will see it.
    Also, I’m out of metals for about a month ago, first time in 9 yrs, what a nice feeling…., sorry to see you guys struggling with it .
    Cannabis is a way to go till July/August then will see.

  7. jacob2

    Trade war. Somewhat off topic but something I’m thinking about tonight. Can’t be good for the market particularly big multinationals, Boeing, GM etc. but could be just the ticket for gold. Gold and the dollar reversed today with the tariff announcement. Perhaps we’ve finally found the catalyst for gold?

    1. Gary Post author

      Like always the media has to find a reason for why the market does what it does. Tariffs are meaningless.

      All thats really happening is the NDX and semis are pulling back from resistance.

      1. jacob2

        SMoot- Hawley comes to mind. HIstory is clear trade wars are not good for the world economy. As the market decends this will be the cover story.

        YES, answering my own question, a trade war would be good for gold and bad for just about everything else. . If it comes to that.

  8. onerobot

    Gary you did a vidia sometime back where you pulled up a long term chart applied the moving averages and you removed price. If the SM is going to grow exhausted and drop into a bear market we still have months and months to go before that case wins out. Damn it man that still sticks in my head.

  9. Goild

    What a day today.
    Bad habits are hard to get rid of.
    As usual I plunged into the falling knife.
    At JNUG $12.10 I was losing close to $2K.
    This time I had a strong conviction of a bounce.
    Gapping 3% down at the open and losing 3-4% in the first 15 minutes is shear fear. Add to that a fresh low. Of course bad habits also prevail. As soon as I was green I sold around $12.22 with 25K JNUG shares on the table. How stupid, doubly for plunging to early and selling to early.
    Though how smart, within two hours I made $1500 for the day.
    But how impatient, should I have left the shares to the close then I would have made $25K.
    All things considered it was a good day. Lots of things to learn and ideas on how to improve.
    There was a strong divergence right after the open, JNUG was falling and gold very little. I missed it.
    As then I would have had a reason to hold longer the 25K shares. Still I am too green and hope to do the proper changes to make real money and not crumbs. This is what it is, That is it.
    I added 250 GLD more shares. Now holding 500 GLD shares, and 2K GDX shares.
    Oh, do not tell me why in the hell I post these details. I would hope some master trader would tell more closely how they make so much money. Of course there is Gary, but he has patience and prudence. I want to see big green numbers on my account, and often. Yes it is possible, It depends on how one thinks.
    Yes how you or I think is the thing.

  10. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    Assuming we don’t get a sign of a bottom first, a potential spot to start buying might be a tag of the 100 EMA by the Nasdaq and semi’s.

    1. jacob2

      What goes around comes around

      Forbes: Chip tariffs – “China is the world’s largest consumer of semiconductors, which are installed in the vast number of electronics products manufactured in the country. A potential tariff on semiconductors would be disastrous for Qualcomm (QCOM) and Intel (INTC), the American chipmaking giants.”

      This is how trade wars start

      1. roadrunner

        Are Intel and Qualcomm dumping chips in China cheaper than the USA to hurt Chinese manufacturers?

    2. Jim Dandy

      Deal me in, you have nailed it so far, and I am looking to add onto already bigly profitable positions in NQ.

      I still love commodities, but the don´t love me back, so I´m leaving them for now.

  11. jacob2

    The point being that if China retaliates it won’t be steel but where it hurts…tech.

  12. carlvan

    Attachment

    2 days ago I sold my NQ futures long position for a very big profit when I saw the low of the pre-session being breached later during the day; that was not the sign of an imminent break to new ATH. But yesterday I made the mistake of re-entering long when I saw the big rise after the initial drop at the opening. I lost a lot when I exited a couple of hours later. Still I managed to keep half of the gain of the days before but chastised myself and will pay special attention not to make the same mistake again: entering a big position just on gut feeling AND not havinga good stop placement. I think, if one just paid attention only to enter a new trend after the break of a simple trend line, it would avoid lots of bad trades. Of course, the number one mistake was to wait to long to exit, bad stop mgt this time…Anyway, today is a new day; I am know watching to enter short because I think, after some pullback today, the drop will resume. W bottom scenario…
    EDIT: my chart is wrong: I entered the first long before the 2nd deep low, not after! But I hanged on…

    1. Gary Post author

      Attachment

      A W bottom wasn’t my expected scenario but it now looks like that is going to play out.

      Those all time highs in the semi’s and NDX were just too big of a resistance zone and it’s going to take more work before a break out can occur.

      I’m going to be watching both of these leading sectors. If the Dow and SPX produce a full test of the February low but the NDX and semi’s only move back to the 100 day EMA that would be the signal to buy back in preparation for a successful test and successful breakout on the next rally.

      1. carlvan

        Gary, I am glad you share this; W bottom for SPX and DJ while Nasdaq would not retest the lows came to view when I compared lines on those charts, Andrew pitchforks and the like… it is true that NQ and SOX have been the leaders so far, so they should not correct that deep compared to the other indexes

      2. lokum_

        We have close to 6 billion BOW on SPY for the last month only! That’s higher than SEP-NOV 2016 combined

        1. Gary Post author

          Attachment

          Big money is getting into positions for the next 2500 points up in the Nasdaq. They are using every down day to load more shares.

          The first 2500 points came from the election to the January top. The next 2500 points will come once a breakout is completed, and this 2500 points will come much faster than the first 2500.

          1. lokum_

            … and with this kind of volatility, the bubble scenario is getting way more realistic.

            On the side note, the grains ( JJG ) have broken their long down trend, agricultural stocks are starting to leave the basement, steel and coal are up trending – smells like 1999. Chairman Powel also said this week the inflation will be present in a more realistic way with demand meeting the supply for (all kind) of materials and production.

          2. Gary Post author

            Attachment

            Those damn grains have thrown so many curveballs over the last several years it’s tough to trust any rally.

      3. ras

        W bottom for spx? May be. Another possibility could be a measured move to a lower low at 2500, cracking the 200 day ma. That would create real panic and a powerful reversal?

        1. Gary Post author

          Seems unlikely to me. The Fed is going to need the market back at, or near the all time highs before the March FOMC meeting.

          1. ras

            Nobody knows. One guess is as good as another. You were talking about Hawkins address to the senate lifting the market. The opposite happened. Our interpretation may not be the way sm reacts. It is good to see you flexible enough to revise your targets downward if price behaviour warrants.
            I have no idea what Fed needs or does not need. A more fruitful approach is to follow price instead of leading it. Just an opinion, subject to change depending on future price activity.

  13. Bluebellkid

    But, but, but Gary you just posted this two days ago about your cycles. And you told me you proved volume was irrelevant, what is happening????

    Gary Post authorFebruary 28, 2018 at 4:06 pm
    No chance of that happening. Intermediate cycles don’t top that quickly. The NDX and SOX just needed to pullback and regroup before breaking out to new highs. Once they do the rest of the market is coming along for the ride.

    1. Gary Post author

      Volume has been proven to be an outdated concept for many years. there’s no arguing that anymore. Our modern markets don’t behave the same way they did 20 years ago.

      The intermediate cycle isn’t topping. We are consolidating in preparation for a breakout and completion of the rally to 10,000 (maybe higher).

      1. Bluebellkid

        The only thing you have proven about volume is that you don’t understand or get it.

        1. Jim Dandy

          It isn´t hard to figure out about volume, big volume equals confirmation. It´s not some profound concept, and it has little PREDICTIVE value, and especially in the short term.

  14. Bluebellkid

    Got his email from IBD this morning:
    Low volume on the move toward new highs started last week, but this week it was all about higher volume to the downside as three consecutive distribution days hit markets. With most indexes dropping back below their 10-day moving averages and now losing their 50-day moving averages, it’s not the time for bravery in swing trades. This looks to be more of a Sideways Trend, at least for the short term, and trading should be minimal.

    1. Gary Post author

      Sideways trend.

      Exactly what I said. Consolidating in preparation for the breakout and run to 10,000.

  15. x33e

    Attachment

    Virginia, there is no Santa Claus.
    And in the stock market, there is no “piece of cake”.
    Ever.
    You want a sure thing?
    Bet on the federal debt rising.
    There might be a blowoff or maybe not, but newer traders need to remember that predictions are nothing and money management is everything…just in case your guru turns out to be somewhat less than infallible. Having been in this business four decades, I am still impatiently waiting for Mister Perfect to amble along.
    So now 8,500 constitutes a great victory. No argument there. That would be some nice cake. But it ain’t the piece of cake originally being marketed. It is a smaller piece of cake that might get smaller yet.
    Caveat Emptor.
    Use stops.

    1. Gary Post author

      Cake is coming, But it’s not your birthday yet. You’re going to have to have a little patience. We have to get through this consolidation phase first. Once it’s finished then the party will begin. 🙂

  16. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    Gold bugs be careful here. Don’t buy at the top of the false rally and then get sucked down into the final ICL later this month.

    I tried to warn people about this in Oct. but few listened to me.

  17. Bluebellkid

    Last Friday’s “The Big Picture” was entitled: Stock Indexes Post Big Gains, But One Thing Is Missing.
    I didn’t post it because there was so much high fiving and back patting going on I didn’t dare post anything like that for fear of reprisal.

    1. Gary Post author

      You didn’t post it because you were afraid it might turn out to be wrong. 🙂

      You’ve never shied away from conflict so we know it wasn’t due to fear of reprisal. This is kind of like the Monday morning traders that always tell us about their great trades after they’ve already happened. Of course now no one ever pays any attention to those nitwits. You have to make real time trades in the challenge to be believable nowadays.

      By the way didn’t you buy when the indexes completed the confirmation day? Didn’t you say you bought semi’s yesterday?

      It seems like you keep buying high and selling low. Maybe you need to choose a strategy to try and buy at the bottom of this pullback instead of at the top. I went over one this morning in my morning report.

      1. Bluebellkid

        I did buy SOXL near the close yesterday as a “roll of the dice”. Do you remember me posting that Utility and Tobacco stocks were two of the best performing groups last Friday? and what the significance was? Here is what the Big Picture said:
        Volume fell across the board, according to preliminary data. The declining volume dimmed part of the day’s shine. But the S&P 500 and the Dow retook their 50-day lines, joining the Nasdaq, which reclaimed and held its 50-day a week and a half ago.
        In some ways, Friday was a day that favored caution. Groups scoring the day’s best gains included utilities and tobacco.

  18. Bluebellkid

    President Reagan, announced a 100% tariff on certain Japan electronics in late March 1987. The stock market then moved sideways for about six months before the crash took it down in October 1987. No one, though, has blamed the 1987 crash on tariffs.
    In March of 2002 Bush imposed a 30% tariff on steel imports and the S&P 500 dropped 30%, the dollar tanked and the 10 year treasury got cut in half.

    1. Gary Post author

      The Japan tariffs basically only affected some laptop buyers. How many of those were there in 87?

      It cost Japan 300 million dollars. It was nothing more than a nuisance and certainly had no effect on either the GDP of Japan or the US and was clearly a non event in regards to the 87 crash.

      Stocks were already well into the bear market by March of 2002. Again tariffs were meaningless and the market was going to finish the bear market no matter what Bush did.

  19. Goild

    Yes SM consolidation, a long one. Be very patient. Remember Japan?
    In the mean time gold/miners are taking off.

  20. Margret Kopala

    Macro events should be respected if only because they have a way of intensifying or amplifying cycles though without necessarily changing them. The Bush tariffs, for instance, put a bottom on the Dotcom crash while the announcement of the Smoot Hawley tariffs triggered the crash of 1929. Both crashes signalled the beginning of Kondratieff Winters, that is the deflationary depression that precedes the reflationary recovery – two of four phases in the 60 year technological transition cycle, which would have happened with or without the tariffs. Since we are well into the reflationary phase we are well out of the timing band for similar crashes with similar effects. Significant corrections are to be expected, of course, and particularly volatility since we have a disruptive president of a country whose hegemonic status is in question.

    Yes, hegemonic cycles have also been identified by very credible scholars.

    1. onerobot

      Margret Kopala If the deflationary depression & the reflationary recovery are 2 of the 4 phases in the 60 year technological transition cycle. Would you tell me what are the other 2 phases that I guess are expected into the future?

    2. BeachandBiscuits

      I’ve not read enough on it yet to debate the details, but I believe some economic historians are now doubting that the Smoot Hawley tariffs were actually the trigger for the crash, but more one of several?

  21. vin

    @x33e:
    LOL!

    “And in the stock market, there is no “piece of cake”.” So right.

    But I ain’t looking phor a piece of cake. I iz looking phor 10k on nasdaq in March. Since I don’t understand the science of cycles, I am not sure if it is March 2018 or March 2088. But, I guess that the cycle science is a fundamental one.

    After being funny. let me quickly admit that Gary has been pretty good. It is just sometimes he is a bit toooo assertive. When I say good I mean in his predictions. He is also a gentleman and very patient.

    Hats off to him.

  22. jacob2

    The Technology sector Bull looks finished; USD/JPY collapsing with funds flowing into Gold (for now). The barometer for investor confidence and probability of a real trade war is now gold. Be careful what you wish for as we now have gold going up with a clearly defined catalyst. Shocking It didn’t happen to schedule and script.

  23. JJHarmen

    It’s obvious that we are going to get an opening down gap but will the SM follow through with more downside throughout the day or will it follow it’s years old pattern of snubbing the rest of the world’s markets and rallying on bad news and closing up on the day?

    1. carlvan

      I think both: smash bears first (today), then returning bulls next (today or Monday), then finally bears again before the up trend resumes for good…

  24. JJHarmen

    The BTFD crowd are in, trying hard to get some upside momentum going but it’s not so easy without the help of the PPT who are obviously not ready to intervene.

  25. mustang sally

    Morning All> Is today the day they brake 29.50 on dusts, odds are good. If so then it looks gold 1350 will be the top. 1350 needs to be taken out, if not 830 is in the works and I think it will be quick.

    MS

    1. JJHarmen

      MS, you can’t keep disappearing when you are wrong and then coming back with the same old song and expect to be listened to. You have zero credibility just like that Pedestrian guy who operated the same way.

      1. onerobot

        LOL Looks like the same old deflationary depression / reflationary recovery / 2 other phase shifts in the 60 year technological transition Cycle & Tariffs coming out our backsides / Bronco Billies & Mustang Sally’s ! Ye Haw ! Geesh man Buy when you are crapping your pants Sell when your hands are in the air ! And don’t forget when to…” The sky is fallen ” ! A man… just some guy alerts anyone who would listen that a impeding correction was going to occur in the SM some time in Jan or Feb.
        Alright 100% of what I would place in ( His so-called correction impeding ) 1/4% in . Retrace reaching for the 50 MA decide on maybe 1/4 % more then Hold. What happened BlueBellKid ? A 63 year old man. I remember what you did ! starting 11-12 days back…You got the crap wipe sawed outta ya ! AT the 50 MA ! Why didn’t you SHORT there ? Where you to scared ? What will you do NOW in real time ! You know Buddy boy if you want to come on to a FREE site where some guy will throw out a good bone every once in a while just cause you ain’t listen really listening no need to start piss ah bitch just cause you F/ed up! The guy didn’t hold a gun to your head and tell to do what you began 11 to 12 days back!

  26. JJHarmen

    Gold stocks have been such a disappointment since the debut of Gary’s “baby bull” nearly two years ago. If you didn’t get out at the peak of that move, it has been mostly downhill ever since. Thankfully, we haven’t broken down to new lows so I guess that means we should hang on to our shit performing miners and maybe buy more. Isn’t that how it should work after a “baby bull”?

    1. primetime

      JJ,
      Cmon man, its Friday. Your starting to make me depressed. Give me some of that California loving. Out East we are having a winter storm.

      1. JJHarmen

        Prime, what did I say that depressed you , my poor snowflake friend? Find yourself a safe place and see if that will cheer you up some.

    2. Gary Post author

      It’s hardly been all downhill if one recognized that the sector was moving into a basing pattern. Even though I missed the top in 2016 and gave back way too much of our baby bull gains we’ve taken the metal portfolio from +50% to +212% in just a little over a year.

      Granted I did get a bit lucky on some of our exits but cycles have been working pretty good at spotting ICL bottoms. So even though the market has been stuck in the mud our portfolio’s haven’t.

      And all the poor saps that bailed at the bottom in 2016 missed a great run.

      Like I always say: Human nature never changes. If you want to make serious money in the market then you have to do something seriously different than 90% of the rest of investors.

      1. JJHarmen

        GDX peaked at almost $32 in August of 2016 and now under $22. “Downhill” is very appropriate, don’t ya think?

  27. allthatglitters

    JNUG long and strong in 2018, days like today are the reason why. No one is smart enough to know when gold will start it’s ascent, or what will trigger it. A moronic tariff policy? Maybe, we will see.

    1. JJHarmen

      “JUNG long and strong in 2018″….what are you talking about? JNUG ended 2017 at 17.76 and now below 14 bucks. What kind of lipstick are you trying to put on that pig?

      1. allthatglitters

        You don’t understand the concept of holding for future gains? Sorry to hear that…

        1. Spanky

          You could end up a huge winner, but playing with leverage in a long downtrend (miners have been making lower lows and lower highs for 19 months now) is nuts IMO.

          Leverage is something you stack on at ICLs in a trending bull market. We don’t have that yet in the miners.

  28. vand

    Even if you think that stocks are not in a bubble, not every stock bear market began from a bubble top. The bubble was in bonds (and lately cryptos), and if that is popping then it will take the stock market down with it. We may see Nas10k yet but it certainly won’t be a “piece of cake”. The evidence is mounting that the bull market’s days are very numbered.

    Gary for some perspective, please compare the DAX to the Nasdaq. They are both “the stock market”.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would argue the exact opposite. This volatility is exactly what I would expect to set the stage for a parabolic move once the breakout occurs.

      I’ll say it again. You have to think differently than the crowd to make money in this business. When everyone is looking for a bear market what are the odds of it happening? Zero.

      Bear markets happen at times of extreme complacency. I’ve shown the ROBO ratio multiple times. We clearly don’t have that kind of emotion in the stock market yet. When we do start a bear market the first 10% decline will be shrugged off as nothing to worry about (like the bitcoin investors). Clearly that’s not happening now as everyone is panicking. This is not what will happen at the start of a bear market. This is a correction in an ongoing bull market.

      10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question when we get into the really nutty phase.

      1. Spanky

        Gold never got extremely stretched above its MAs in 2012, and yet it entered a vicious bear market. Why can’t the same be true for stocks (just from a technical perspective, Fed put notwithstanding)?

        Also, other than low interest rates, what is driving this bubble in stocks? In past bubbles, there has always been a “story” driving them–e.g., the railroad boom, the internet boom, tulip bulbs, the south sea bubble. If the stock market bubble is a purely monetary phenomena, then you could argue that as soon as the monetary stimulus is removed (QT, rising interest rates), there is nothing to drive the bubble higher–i.e., there is no story to lend hope to the “this time is different” crowd (see bitcoin as a recent example).

        1. Gary Post author

          Stocks don’t have central banks attacking them to keep the commodity markets in check.

          I think we all know by now that the bear market in gold was basically artificially induced to prevent QE from flowing into commodities. Central banks wanted liquidity going into stocks.

          1. Spanky

            On that point, I have absolutely no doubt you are right. The fact that gold and silver starting selling off the day QE3 was announced is the biggest farce of all time. And look at commodities between 2013-15. Makes ZERO sense on any level whatsoever.

      2. vand

        Gary, thanks for your reply. I do of course respect your call on this. I’ll continue to stay on the side. IMO we ARE seeing extreme levels of complacency and people are shrugging it off and expect the BTFD mentality. For example look at this sort of thing as a general sentiment indicator: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-02/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-at-second-highest-level-since-2004
        NOBODY on main st is expecting anything other than a booming economy and the good times to continue to roll.

  29. JJHarmen

    Is GDX going to break up or break down from this so called “basing pattern”? I have a bad feeling it is going to be the latter which is why I will not buy more GDX at this point although I can’t bring myself to sell what I am currently holding (with a small paper loss).

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m afraid GDX may test the lower range of the basing pattern around $18 at the next ICL.

      But remember the further the rubber band gets stretched in one direction the harder it reverses back once the selling pressure is exhausted.

      We should get a a great opportunity in the metals soon, just be patient and don’t get sucked into the first fakeout rally.

      1. Spanky

        Yep, $18 could easily be hit in the next few weeks. Heck, in the very short run they can take price wherever they want as they so aptly demonstrated in the weeks leading up to the January 2016 low.

  30. Spanky

    USDJPY is at 105 now. Wow. And yet the metals (silver) and miners continue to languish?

    What happens when yen takes a breather???

  31. Spanky

    The silver miners have been making lower lows and lower highs for 19 months now. I can’t imagine the sector being in a bull market if that extends beyond 24 months (which I guess still gives us until the summer to keep trending lower).

  32. minerguy

    So I have a question that I can’t see has been asked. SPY has huge volume compared to the other ETFs. When the crazy phase of this bubble does someday start, won’t the average investor pile in the SPY rather than other ETFs? Or maybe he’ll buy the names he’s familiar with? Amazon, Facebook, etc.? I was a newlywed during the .com bust, so I really wasn’t into investing at all. I think I had some mutual funds.

    1. Gary Post author

      A bubble will probably focus in QQQ, SOX and maybe the DOW. I doubt we would see a parabolic bubble in the diversified SPY. But even the SPY could make it to 4000-5000.

      1. minerguy

        Would you recommend PSI, SMH or SOXX for a 1x EFT? Any in particular? SOXX seems to have the best assets but SMH the volume?

  33. itsinthedna

    Might be a little pre mature on the “I told you so.” Rising rates and now tariffs is not a good combination. This is what killed the market in 1930

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually what killed the market in the 30’s was sky rocketing tax rates. Taxes went from 25% to 80%.

      We don’t have that problem now do we? 🙂

      1. Bluebellkid

        The events of Black Thursday are normally defined to be the start of the stock market crash of 1929-1932, but the series of events leading to the crash started before that date. This article examines the causes of the 1929 stock market crash. While no consensus exists about its precise causes, the article will critique some arguments and support a preferred set of conclusions. It argues that one of the primary causes was the attempt by important people and the media to stop market speculators. A second probable cause was the great expansion of investment trusts, public utility holding companies, and the amount of margin buying, all of which fueled the purchase of public utility stocks, and drove up their prices. Public utilities, utility holding companies, and investment trusts were all highly levered using large amounts of debt and preferred stock. These factors seem to have set the stage for the triggering event. This sector was vulnerable to the arrival of bad news regarding utility regulation. In October 1929, the bad news arrived and utility stocks fell dramatically. After the utilities decreased in price, margin buyers had to sell and there was then panic selling of all stocks.
        eh.net/encyclopedia/the-1929-stock-market-crash/

        1. Gary Post author

          I think what caused the crash was nothing more complicated than it was a bubble and the bubble popped.

          Remember the stories of shoe shine boys giving stock tips?

          That’s the kind of sentiment that signals a bubble is at risk of popping.

    2. Spanky

      I don’t believe the SNB and BoJ were buying stocks hand over fist using a printing press in 1930.

      I don’t believe the ECB was buying corporate bonds hand over fist using a printing press in 1930.

      Correct me if I am wrong.

  34. mustang sally

    To JJ Harmen: How can one say I am wrong, short term yes , but long term time will tell. My markers do not give a time period so it can be wrong in the short term. The bottom of the usd will be tough to call but once it is the xplosion will be incredible. 830 gold next marker if 1350 not broken

    MS

  35. onerobot

    BlueBellKid : I’m watching the SPXL looks like a crap your pants Buy Long PT in the 45.00 PRange. What do you think? BigBaby!

    1. Bluebellkid

      Yesterday the Put Call Volume ratio closed at 1.17. Readings of 1.15 or higher often coincide with short-term market bottoms. I think we are due a bounce but whether it will have any legs is questionable and based upon what I see not likely. You just don’t see this type of heavy institutional selling without consequences i.e. more downside. SPXL is sort of in no man’s land as far as any moving averages that might provide support or be a good place to enter. The weekly chart looks bad. It is trading near the lows of the week (bottom half of the weekly trading range) and volume is way above average as I type with 5 1/2 more hours left in the trading day. The MACD is giving a sell signal. Bottom line is if you are going to play it for a bounce then I would suggest setting a profit goal and executing it and don’t hold out for a really big move until we get more confirmation that the water is safe to go into.

  36. onerobot

    I don’t know Gary…seems some of these people run off @ their pie holes like you’re here for their entertainment . Gotta wonder if Pink would have a man runnin’ for the hills , you know” christian & ALL for One! Funny stuff,man !

  37. ras

    Gary’s W bottom for spx: about 1/2 way down. Another 100 points down to 2560. 4th day down. Gary says Fed wants the market up for FOMC meet. If so, we could see the remainder of the downswing in the next 4-6 days or it could extend a bit longer into OEX week ending on March 16. Pot luck or piece of cake after that?

  38. jbird

    Technically speaking, SM starts showing positive divergences in hourly (like RSI-3) charts.

    1. Gary Post author

      No.

      Two completely different markets with completely different fundamentals and sentiment levels.

      Also one doesn’t have to worry about central banks attacking the stock markets.

      1. Spanky

        I agree, but technically, they are playing out very similar so far.

        Gold went on to bounce up and down in a large box for over a year before the infamous QE3 announcement put a knife in its chest.

  39. Gary Post author

    I don’t think one has to be in a hurry to buy today. The market hasn’t even completed a swing yet.

    I posted a potential strategy with the SPX/NDX chart at the 3:02 comment this morning.

  40. Don

    The Biotechs are showing some strength today but will probably crumble if the sell off gains traction later today. The dip buyers seem to be having some problems getting things turned up.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’d say tech in general is holding up pretty well. This is the sector one wants to be in once the correction is finished.

      I’d still be nervous about biotech though with elections later this year.

  41. Bluebellkid

    I’m still hanging with SOXL. There’s a battle going on for the 10 week ma (50 day). The morning gap has been filled.

  42. mustang sally

    I posted this way back in July 2017, that shit will hit the fan, the market in the past weeks is showing its cards.
    All markets are doomed, I believe the usd bottomed and will take no survivors on this journey. Everyone remembers the Browns bottom in 2001 up next will be the pigs bottom for gold, how does 200 feel . I flying USD will put all those pigs to slaughter only to render their pots of gold to the money man. For the past 6 months they have been trying hard to keep the usd down but their effort will become useless. 29.50 on the dust breaks and holds the bull will be in dusty and everything else will crumble.

    MS

    1. Andy

      so you’re saying there will be no more demand for gold, is that it? all producers would be out of business and gold would be shunned all over the world, especially in India and China? Please go back to sleep.

      1. mustang sally

        That about right Andy , if you want to corner the market what do you do? Think about it. if you want all the gold do you want the price high or low?

        MS

  43. Jimsee

    nice little gap fill on dia (2/9-2/12) on daily chart. long some ddm – could develop into something…

    1. Gary Post author

      It wouldn’t hurt to wait for the close and see if it stays. If so and we get a swing on Monday today could possibly mark a HCL.

        1. carlvan

          +1 here, I am long NQ since 6703 but with a tight stop as I think the retrace will be short lived…but it won’t hurt it it continue rising

  44. Spanky

    Nasty looking candle in GLD today.

    Silver is technically set for a severe pummeling, but the CoTs are outright bullish. Somethings gotta give.

  45. Spanky

    Most gold DCs in recent times have been running about 40 days. That would take us into Friday April 6, which happens to be the day of the employment report. My guess would be gold finds a DCL that week or the week thereafter.

    And even then, the IC would only be 17 or 18 weeks iirc, which would be very short. Most ICs have been running into the high 20 week area (e.g. 28 weeks). Plus, the last IC was relatively short at 22 weeks.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Miners selling off now, again. And the leaders are turning red, like FNV. Next stop, $18 on GDX and how much lower afterwards we will have to see, once it takes out $18.

      1. Spanky

        The head and shoulders on the weekly GDX chart projects to exactly $16. That guess is as good as any.

  46. Goild

    I added to my portfolio 400 shares of XLE.
    It pays a nice dividend.
    To consider also is SPHD high dividend low volatility ETF. Any comments?

      1. Goild

        Thanks for the comment.
        So you would not recommend it for a long term hold?
        Appreciate your comments.

        1. Bluebellkid

          If you are looking for a “return” on your money as in a dividend then at the current price you would be getting 3.5%. The stock broke out of a cup with handle back in Feb. of 2016 with the buy point at 33.78. It then moved up to almost $40/share over the course of the next 5 months. Since then it has pretty much traded sideways with a recent move up to $43. It has succumbed to the overall market weakness and just doesn’t look good. The RS (relative strength) rating is a lowly 30 and then line is heading down. Only 13 funds own it so not much in the way of institutional support. There are probably better dividend plays out there.

    1. Don

      Goild, if you have a profit on XLE by the end of the day, your history tells us that you will sell it for the short term gain. Your ‘portfolio’ changes from one minute to the next. Good luck.

      1. Goild

        Don,

        I do not have a mind for day trading three accounts.
        Need to put the funds in one for long term. Not greedy there, 5% would be nice.
        Have 500 shares of GLD, 400 of XLE, 1000 SPHD, and 2K GDX.

  47. Don

    Lots of green showing now after an ugly start to the day. The biotech rally is gaining traction. Funny how the US markets do not allow foreign markets to lead to the downside for very long.

  48. Gary Post author

    It’s possible stocks are completing a HCL today. I’m waiting for the close before making a decision.

      1. Goild

        Driver,

        Some traders have observed that often the SM closes higher on paydays.
        A lot of money goes into the 401 plans to buy stock. Thus the manipulation sells to the retirement accounts at higher prices.

  49. Bluebellkid

    Well, we are entering into the “lunch hour” so with the markets being weak and down all morning a rally would not be surprising. Can it get to “green”? Don’t know, but if the pattern of late prevails I look for the selloff to continue after “lunch”. I have a profit in SOXL position so will be looking to lock that in soon and back to cash for the weekend. And yes earthkitten I am scared! IBD has moved the markets from “confirmed uptrend” to “markets under pressure”, next stop is “in correction”. Had orders in to sell SOXL at 165 and before I was thru typing this message I got an execution.

  50. Spanky

    The clear GLD:GDX breakout of its pennant projects about 15% higher. Which means the miners are in for a world of hurt as gold heads into its ICL.

  51. Goild

    BBK,

    Thank you again.
    I got rid of the 1000 SHPD shares with a profit of $10 bucks.

    Need to put together a portfolio to invest about $200K. I will be happy with 5%.
    Would appreciate more ideas and comments.

    As per following Gary’s SM advice, it is too risky and think it is too late.

    1. Bluebellkid

      Take a look at Viper Energy Partners (VNOM). I don’t own this. I have had it on my watch list for a while. It broke out of a cup with handle last October and I missed it. At current prices the yield is 8.0% and the chart looks really good. It has also pulled back with the recent market sell off but not that much. Recent high was 26.19 and is currently trading at 23.33. Maybe someone here can speak more about Partnerships and the pros and cons. The average weekly volume at the breakout was around 815 thousand and now it is 2.1 mm.

    2. didier

      I red the paul tudor jones article someone shared here yesterday. He says the same as f.e. bob moriarty: commodities are cheap compared to everything else. So maybe nugt or slv/uslv old turkey?
      https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-01/apocalyptic-paul-tudor-jones-warns-fed-about-lose-control
      http://energyandgold.com/2018/02/21/bob-moriarty-ignore-all-the-fools/
      I would never buy a single compagny as vnom. Before you know your money is gone. But i do have some single compagny ideas in cobalt: kblt.v (kobalt stored in warehouse so no country risk) and banc.v (cobalt exploration in congo). I’m repeating what i red elswhere – i’m not knowledgeable in those matters.

  52. MrBurns

    NASDAQ: A close at 7210 or higher would negate the WEEKLY bearish engulfing candle and also put the price slightly above the bullish channel’s lower trendline.

    Daily chart faring better at this point, a bit more strength would be good overall, what matters is the close, will there profit-taking or not going to the weekend?

  53. Don

    The market seems to be saying that import tariffs are a good thing for business. Only dumb money would believe that to be true so we know who is driving the rally.

    1. primetime

      Don,
      I know you are Canadian, eh, but don’t fight the American Fed. They have your back too, just like our military.

      1. Don

        Primetime: The FED is in the process of shrinking it’s balance sheet and committed to raising rates so wouldn’t the expectation for higher stock prices amount to ‘fighting the FED’? Stock prices need fuel to keep them in bull mode and I am not so sure the retail investor has the same kind of firepower to accomplish what the FED was able to with it’s printing press. We shall see.

  54. Goild

    BBK,

    I took a look at VNOM and realize is a stock.
    Too chicken here for individual stocks.
    Prefer ETF’s.

    Thank you!

  55. jbird

    SM trend change by closing at a higher price than the high so far today, or wait for swing high on Monday like Gary said. looking good. uvxy is in negative territory

  56. Bluebellkid

    It’s awful quiet here. Everyone is waiting with bated breath for the close. “Lunch hour” is over so we shall see what we shall see!

    1. m0ntana

      Q’s will be up today and on Monday – then sink in the valley next week and shake out residual longs. Not trusting this move.

      1. Bluebellkid

        Regardless of the close today the fact remains that the indices have given up the 50 day (bearish) with the possible exception of the Nasdaq and will close near the lows of the week (bearish) on above average volume (bearish). This type of action warrants caution. It’s not a buying opportunity as some may think.

        1. m0ntana

          I’m too chicken to buy at this point, those 3X funds are fun when there’s a clear trend in your favor.

  57. Americano

    Paul Tudor Jones :
    ” The opportunity cost of Crypto is so low, why not own some? ”

    Thanks Mr Obvious. From…..

    The Mayflower.

    1. Vortex

      Americano,

      Because most goldbugs love pain and disappointment and are subconsciously apathetic when losing money. They would rather continue to pick up pennies in front of a steam roller than throw some money at a big EFT like QQQ or UDOW and make some easy money.

      Gary is and will continue to be right. Human nature never changes and the mining sector will continue to suck to high heaven as an investment option.

      1. Americano

        Vortex –
        Your comment is a great segway into my announcement tomorrow.
        Even though I’m now on The Mayflower……
        We all started out in England !

  58. x33e

    The Dollar is struggling at the retest of the September breakdown point. If a 24 trading day, three wave corrective pattern is all the Dollar can manage off the 2008-2010 major monthly support, there is a chart vacuum looming immediately below down to 85 that might lift gold out of its multi-year base. It will happen sooner or later, and with the Republicans somehow managing to outspend Obama it might well happen sooner. Paul Tudor Jones is projecting a 2019 debt service obligation of the federal government at $945 billion, so going into the 2020 election the politicians can dramatically increase taxes or dramatically cut spending or dramatically devalue the currency. Take a guess which tactic they will choose.

  59. Spanky

    Smart money is shorting the absolute $hit out of miners today.

    Say what you want about the significance of black candles generally, but since the low in January 2016, neither GDX nor $HUI have left a single one behind on the daily chart without closing below each one first. Today, so far GDX is putting in a nice fat one. IMO, at a true bottom you won’t see any black candles for weeks on end. In 2016, GDX rallied 40% over 3 weeks before one was finally put in.

    1. Jim Dandy

      i can´t short the miners though I probably should. They have been too good to me in the past, feels like cheating if I short them. But I do agree, they stink and want to go down. There are too few buyers with conviction, so all up moves get faded fast. That usually means they are going lower, especially since this group looks for any excuse to decline.

      Gary´s idea that maybe later this month around the FOMC (at the soonest) they could bottom isan interesting thought, but I am prepared for it to take until May/June to find an ICL.

      1. Spanky

        I would extend it to June just in case the IC runs the typical 24-30 weeks. $16 GDX by then maybe.

        The only bullish factor right now is the silver CoTs which are probably going to be screaming bullish this week. That makes me wonder how much lower silver can go this daily cycle. Anything is possible though. Maybe it puts on a meager rally for a few weeks to get the CoTs looking more bearish before the bottom is yanked.

        Also, before I get too presumptuous, let’s see how GDX and $HUI close.

  60. lokum_

    Looks like a short covering in Qs so far. So next week we have more trade war stuff (thus more sinking industrial stocks), post Italian election reactions (sinking EURO) and the savior – the February job report.

    1. MrBurns

      Nasdaq is not an index that gets impacted by ‘short-covering’. Individual stocks within do, however the top holdings aren’t shorted that much.

  61. Bluebellkid

    U.S. presidents have used tariffs and import quotas on occasion, but no president has been as openly confident as Trump in using tariffs as a tool since Herbert Hoover. History shows that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, signed in June 1930, led to reductions in both U.S. imports and U.S. exports.
    While the current stock market has little in common with 1930, tariffs in 1930 didn’t help the U.S. economy or the Hoover-era stock market. The stock market looks ahead and the rising and falling prospects for Smoot-Hawley may well have contributed to the 1929 stock market crash. On Oct. 21, 1929, about a week before the crash, the Senate rejected a move to water down Smoot-Hawley.
    Interestingly, in May 1930, more than 1,000 economists urged Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Tariff because it would be “harmful to the country.” Hoover ignored them.
    Polls have shown that currently about 93% of economists oppose tariffs.

  62. Gary Post author

    Traders are willing to buy ahead of the weekend. Pretty good sign in my opinion that the HCL is complete.

    1. Gary Post author

      The last three days of heavy buying on weakness was probably a sign big money was using the pull back to scoop up more shares.

      Smart money knows that 10,000 is going to be a piece of cake.

        1. Gary Post author

          The BoW numbers don’t have anything to do with volume. It’s a sign institutions are willing to hit the ask to get into positions. It’s not always predictive but it works often enough that I pay attention to it.

          1. Bluebellkid

            You said “heavy” buying. It’s ok Gary you can acknowledge that volume is relevant.

  63. Bluebellkid

    Nice move for the Nasdaq but the daily volume was almost 10% lower than yesterday’s big sell off. It did close above the 50 day but it was a down week on above average volume so we just have to wait and see what is next. Maybe Gary’s cycles can give us a clue. The Semi’s closed just above the weekly midpoint range which is good and volume was above average also good and SOXL moved back into the “buy zone” on my chart pattern recognition.

      1. Bluebellkid

        Hope you are right. Some of the stocks I watch did well – PAYC, SPLK and MKSI to name a few. I made good money on PAYC. I might add that only MKSI is in the “buy zone”.

        1. Gary Post author

          I think you made the right move yesterday buying when you were scared instead of waiting for confirmation.

          You may have timed this one better than me.

          I was going to wait for a swing but decided I’d seen enough about 20 minutes before the close.

          1. Bluebellkid

            I bailed on SOXL during lunch. It is back in the “buy zone” but what has been happening lately is we get these big moves overnight in the Futures and the thing gaps up in over night trading preventing a good entry at the open. We shall see.

  64. Don

    The Asians and Europeans must be bewildered as to why the US SM goes up after their markets go through a panic sell. Happens every time.

      1. Don

        No Gary, you miss the point which is that thousands of foreign investors thought Trump tariffs are bad for the markets and really, they are correct. However, in order to screw the maximum number of investors, the big American markets had to go in the unexpected direction of up, just as they have countless other times after falling overnight futures have incorrectly ‘predicted’ a down day for the American stock markets. Whether or not the tariffs are bad is irrelevant, at least for today.

        1. Gary Post author

          The tax cuts will more than make up for any tariffs on steel and aluminum. It’s really only two industries, at least at this time.

  65. Don

    One of the most over priced stocks is Netflix and it tacked on another 3.6% today for a fresh high and is now up 56% YTD. That kind of nuttiness is what could drive the Nasdaq to Gary’s 10000 (or higher) target. I don’t think it will but concede that irrationality has been the trademark of this bull market so anything is possible.

    1. Bluebellkid

      Don, here’s the skinny on NFLX. Company earned $1.25/share last year. They are estimated to earn $2.70 this year and $4.20 next year. Earnings drive stock prices. The number of funds that bought into NFLX was 1540 a year ago and that number is now 1733 – that is “smart money” buying. If you think it prudent to bet against that then knock your self out but don’t be surprised if it doesn’t work out.

      1. MrBurns

        MOST IMPORTANTLY for Netflix, US subscriber growth was above expectations, guided higher too. International remains in growth.

        1. Gary Post author

          Netflix is almost like a smart phone. Almost every one has one. And if they don’t they will soon.

          I’d say they have one hell of a business model and it’s become almost a necessity purchase for most families not much different than putting gas in the car or food on the table. It’s just one of those things that is built into everyones budget.

          Not to mention it’s cheap as hell and likely to put the cable providers out of business one day if they can finds a way to get weekly programming and sports.

          1. Bluebellkid

            Not to mention there is nothing on regular TV. With all the cable channels I have it takes me an hour to figure out there in absolutely nothing on TV.

      2. Don

        Bluebellkid: You are pretty good with math. If Netflix does achieve a massive increase in it’s earnings and does post that projected $4.20, what will it’s PE ratio be if the stock remains at it’s current nose bleed level of $300? I get 75 with my calculator. The same could be said for Amazon, Nvidia and several other big corporations with already very high PE ratios and promise of huge increases in earnings.

        It would seem that no price has become too high to pay for American super sized corporations. Is this time going really going to be ‘different’ because of QE, as Gary claims and the irrational will become absolute nuttiness? Maybe, but I am skeptical.

        1. Bluebellkid

          I’ll defer to IBD’s research when it comes to PE ratios:
          • PE Ratios have nothing to do with the timing of a stock purchase. It can however help forecast how far a stock can rise. The average PE expansion from pivot to peak is 120-130%. To project a price target multiply a stock’s PE at breakout by 2.3 then by next full years EPS estimate.
          NFLX’s PE ratio range for the last 5 years is 87-470. The current PE ratio is 232.

  66. MrBurns

    NASDAQ weekly candle another kick-save by Tretiak, took a Bearish Engulfing print and turned it into Bullish Hammer. Last Friday it negated a Bearish Hammer print.

        1. roadrunner

          Vladislav Tretiak was the goalie for the red army and soviet union hockey team. in 1972, the Soviet union team played an 8 game series vs the NHL professional Canadian players, who were not allowed to play in Olympics or world championships. 4 games in Canada and 4 games in USSR. All games showed live in Canada, on every tv, everywhere in the country, including the classrooms of every school. suffice it to say, making a reference to Tretiak would suggest the individual was a Canadian. Which he is. age would be someone born probably 1965 or earlier OR they understand the significance of the event on the country at the time.
          FYI. Canada won the series 4-3 with 1 game tied.
          OR
          he is a little younger and remembers Tretiak performance new years eve for the central red army vs Montreal Canadiens. 1976. tied 3-3. Tretiak was a stud in the game as the red army was outshot big time by the Canadiens.

  67. Spanky

    The “large speculators” are net short silver on this week’s CoT. Has this ever happened before? I don’t think so.

    Needless to say the commercial short interest is the lowest its been in over a year, although I can’t see data further back (e.g., to compare it to their position in December 2015). This has to be screamingly bullish for silver.

    The gold CoTs otoh are neutral at best and aren’t that far away from levels that have actually marked IC tops.

    Have we ever seen such a discrepancy in CoT reports before between gold and silver???

  68. Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout

    I don’t understand netflix popularity. I’ve done a free trial a few times over the years and after a couple of evenings, there’s nothing left I want to watch. I guess it’s simply the fact that it’s cheaper than cable? Same deal, you browse through aimlessly wishing there was something worth watching, except for 10 bucks instead of 100.

      1. Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout

        Well i’m glad people enjoy it so netflix could stack up enough cash to bring Rock and Chappelle out of retirement, but I just watched them on sockshare

  69. Vortex

    The annual PDAC convention in Toronto is just days away. As usual expect the serially hated and manipulated mining sector to get slaughtered again as the “PDAC Curse” kicks in as it always does.

    1. Gary Post author

      With gold confirming a left translated daily cycle there is no reason to be long until it gets into the timing band for the next ICL. That means we need a bounce and then a second leg down.

      1. Vortex

        Gary, I agree completely. There will have to be a lot more pain before the next move up in the miners and metals.

        Like you’ve been saying, the easy money over the next few months will be made in the SM.

  70. Bluebellkid

    Some takeaways from this weeks action: (some good some bad)
    The small-cap Russell 2000 advanced 1.7%. Small caps outperformed, they are a symbol of growth and speculative assets so that was something to cheer.
    The Nasdaq’s composite found support at the 50-day moving average after having dipped below.
    Going into Friday’s session, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average each had an E Accumulation/Distribution Rating which is the worst (A being the best). This sometimes foreshadows rallies — in other words, the selling is nearly exhausted. E ratings across the board haven’t been the case since June 27, 2016, just before the Nasdaq launched a rally that lifted the index 63% over the next six months.
    New lows outnumbered new highs in 12 of February’s 19 sessions. The scarcity of new highs is a troubling sign.

  71. earthkitten

    You shouhn’t have sold Soxl Bluebell. Just hold the thing in a bull market
    & quit trying to time it. You sold at 165 & now it’s 169. Now you’ll have to
    buy at a higher price. Scared money never wins. Just like in poker.

    1. Bluebellkid

      Markets aren’t out of the woods yet. I mentioned earlier that IBD has downgraded the markets. If there was ever anyone with a handle on the markets it is them so I will be cautious until we move back into “confirmed uptrend”. And it could be that the next change is the other way as in “markets in correction”. Isnt advising me that I should have stayed in SOXL Monday morning quarterbacking/trading in hindsight?

      1. Gary Post author

        Attachment

        I’m going to go out on a limb and say the markets completed a half cycle low on Friday. All markets held above their 100 day exponential moving average and price is rebounding after a brief dip by the 3 day RSI into oversold conditions. That’s exactly what we should see during the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle.

        1. jacob2

          Changing one’s mind.

          Woke up Friday with my short list of 3 PM stocks I had to own because of the trade war. By noon I had bought 5 tech, one oil and sold a gold stock.

          Go figure.

      2. bigglaze

        We’re going to see some nice bottom fishing opportunities Monday. Don’t miss out.

      3. Christian

        You have IBD tattooed on the brain 🧠 and it’s not really working for you my friend :/

  72. MrBurns

    Looking at some charts overnight, aside from Nasdaq and Russell, the rest look pretty crappy and deep in the woods.

  73. bigglaze

    VectorVest agrees with you Gary. We’re looking at some pretty nice bottom fishing opportunities on Monday (if you didn’t buy at the previous bottom).

  74. Christian

    Mr ice cream man (Bluebell) — You once mentioned that you were here to learn and I get that it’s hard to teach an old dog new tricks but if you aren’t willing to adapt and/or upgrade your methodology then why bother showing up here everyday to regurgitate the same old script?

    If you wait for the ALL CLEAR from your friends at IBD then chances are good you’ll get caught in the middle again and subsequently bail on your position.

  75. didier

    Bluebellkid, in my opinion you overcomplicate everything. Some more buy&hold and monthly charts. Not to much technical stuff on the daily charts. Often your posts hurt my head, lol. But of course, in the end, if you make good money your system is ok. But do you make good money?

  76. Goild

    BBK,

    Your comments are very valuable, they do expand the trading horizon around here.
    There is not a single way to make money or lose in the market, but as many ways as there are traders.
    In addition, toss in the individual circumstances, stage in life, and then we have at rich variety of stances.
    Please keep posting.

    1. Christian

      Goild — Once again you’ve missed the point. We’re trying to cure Bluebell’s obsession with IBD’s antiquated look at the Markets so that he can stop making the same mistakes over and over again. No one said he couldn’t post here anymore.

      Please stop reading into things and making shit up 🙂

  77. FASTEDDY

    Anyone here have any views on the forthcoming Italian election result? Is it going to be a sell the rumour/buy the result? The first exit polls will be out around midnight Sunday/Monday GMT, (local time plus 1hr) The final results out around lunchtime GMT.

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