I while back I speculated that too many people were expecting an undercut of the February lows (including me), that probably meant we would not get it and most people would get left behind as the next daily cycle started moving back up.
Turns out I was correct.
The parabolic phase is probably off the table as this correction chewed up too much time. That implies the long term bull scenario is probably the correct one and we still have 10-15 years before this secular bull is finished.
10,000 will be a piece of cake (before this 4 year cycle tops, probably in mid 2019). And if we still have 10+ years to go, 20,000 or even 30,000 should be easily achievable.
The previous secular bull took the Nasdaq from 110 in 1980 to 5100 at the top in March of 2000. A gain of 4500%.
Even if we assume a more modest bull market and only a 2000% increase over a 20 year span that would still take the Nasdaq from it’s humble beginnings in the depths of the financial crisis at 1200 to 24,000.
The perma bears have managed to miss all of the bull market so far waiting for the next shoe to drop. If they try hard they may be able to talk themselves into missing an entire 20 year secular bull market.