1st and 2nd place in the challenge are pretty much set as there is almost no chance anyone can over take either spot. Third, fourth, and fifth place however are still up for grabs. The SMT metal portfolio is currently in fifth place with +98% for the year. The other three challengers have the luxury of taking a big risky trade in the last two weeks to see if they can improve their standings. Unfortunately that’s not an option for me as the SMT metal portfolio is real money for many subscribers. I can’t take a big risky bet to try and move up in the standings. I’m going to have to wait and see if anyone else makes a mistake.
Either way though I don’t think anyone would be disappointed with a 98% gain in 12 months.
I started the challenge to level the playing field. I got tired of the trolls taking shots at every short term wiggle that went against us. Now everyone has to play by the same rules. Make your trades in real time, no more of this hindsight trading BS that the trolls are so fond of. That crap no longer flies. If you want to criticize someone else’s trades then you better be prepared to make your own real time trades. What I’ve found most amusing as the challenge has progressed is that the most vocal and antagonistic traders on the blog have for the most part turned out to be the worst traders when they actually had to compete by the same rules as the rest of us that live in the real world. The best traders rarely ever posted on the blog. They just calmly went about the business of trying to make money.
The winning percentages for the top 5 traders were between about 65% and 70%, dispelling this myth of magical winning percentages in the 90% range. Seriously folks when someone tries to claim they win 80-90% of the time run as fast in the other direction as you can. They are trying to sucker you into buying a subscription to a bogus newsletter. Probably one with “multiple scenarios” like most of the Elliot wave letters, or the vague maybe this, maybe that type of analysis you get with just about all other services. As long as one covers all bases they can always claim they “called it” when in fact they called both sides and then chose the correct one after the result became known.
The next challenge will start on July 1. There will be one change in the rules. I’m not going to allow penny stocks this year. There’s too much risk of pump and dump scams in these kind of stocks. So no stocks under $5.
Other than that the same rules will apply.
You must email me ([email protected]) your trade entry or exit within one minute of taking it so I can verify.
I will respond back a confirmation by the end of the day. If I don’t you need to resend me the trade in case it got lost in cyberspace.
You must include the percentage of your portfolio for each trade. I will only accept percentage not # of shares. I will calculate the number of shares from the percentage.
No day trading. You can stop out for a loss on the same day but you can’t exit for a gain on the same day. I simply don’t have time to try and keep up with frantic day traders and realistically no day trader has any real chance of winning the challenge anyway.
The prize will be the same as this year. $500.00 to the winner, and a possible consolation price one year complimentary subscription to the SMT for the next 4 runners up (depending on whether I retire next year).
It will be interesting to see if the winners this year can make it back to the winners circle next year. Consistent winning years are extremely hard to reproduce as what worked one year often doesn’t work the next. Strategies that performed well during one environment often fail miserably during a different environment. The traders that can adapt rapidly to changing markets are the ones most likely to continue making long term, sustainable gains. Those that fail to recognize when the market environment changes and can’t adapt are doomed to failure in the long run.
Since the bear market bottom in 2016 the SMT metal portfolio has adapted and stayed ahead of the market and in the process racked up consistent profits. Starting with $100,000 in January of 2016 the metal portfolio is now worth $562,000.
The SMT stock portfolio starting with $100,00 in 2016 is now worth $244,000.
We don’t win every month. Sometimes we even go multiple months without making a dime, but over time we are consistently growing both portfolio’s. And in the end that’s all that matter’s: Is the portfolio growing over time, stagnate over time, or losing over time.
For the vast majority of traders it’s the second or third. Most traders win big, then lose big, over and over and over. Ultimately they make no long term gains. Or they win big and then lose it all.
So let’s see if anyone can repeat next year.