The Nasdaq composite is getting closer and closer to the big 8000.

We’re going to see 10,000 by the middle of next year.

If we get an intermediate degree correction in October it’s going to be the last great buying opportunity to get on board for the run to 10,000.

All year long the fleas have been telling me I’m an idiot to be bullish on stocks. The market was going to crash, etc. etc.

I think they got it wrong, it wasn’t me that was the idiot. We’re in a long term bull market. Based on the last two we should still have 10-15 years yet to run.

Seriously people until you get into the challenge and make real time calls all emails to me just get automatically dumped in the trash folder. You’re just talking to yourself.

Myself along with 51 other people are playing by the rules. We’re making real time trades. About 90% of those traders are suffering drawdowns right now. Most are heavily underwater including all of last years winners. As of today I’m the only person in the top 5 last year that is in the top 5 so far this year. In fact the SMT stock portfolio is leading the challenge by a comfortable margin and the metal portfolio is in third place. Will this last all the way till next July? Probably not as I don’t trade individual stocks, and the way to beat the averages is by catching a big winner. But as I pointed out before the challenge began, it’s going to be tough to repeat. The odds of last years winners making it back to the winners circle are slim.

Markets change and they evolve. Few people are able to adapt quickly to changing markets. Most continue to use the same tactics that worked for them in the past, and often those strategies fail in a different market environment.

Here is an example of what I’m talking about:

When I saw gold being capped and held below the 200 day moving average I knew the banks had set their sights on this sector. I understood at that point that this wasn’t a buy and hold market. That meant strategies that worked last year probably weren’t going to work this year. So we adapted and changed how we traded the metals. It has been the difference between being underwater like 90% of challengers and being in the top 5.

So stop blowing hot air troll boys and girls. Put your ass on the line with the rest of us. At that point then you may earn the right to have your emails read and responded to. Until then you go straight to trash. 🙂

Still no trolls have entered the challenge. All these nitwits are good at is criticizing others. They don’t have the balls to put their ass on the line with the rest of us. Unfortunately for them they don’t have any ammunition. Since the beginning of the challenge the SMT metal portfolio is up 7% and we’re biding our time as we try to spot the bottom of this correction. The stock portfolio as of today is up 17% and leading the challenge.

A few of the fleas seem to think we’re riding the correction in gold all the way down. LOL not a chance. We’ve been picking our entries at support levels and getting out quickly if they don’t hold. Often we are even able to exit with small profits.

We made a nice profit during the bounce in early July. In fact the SMT metal portfolio is up 7% since the beginning of July and considerably outperforming all other challengers trying to trade the metals.

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again. The metals are one of the most heavily manipulated sectors in the world, possibly only exceeded by currencies. One has to accept that the rules are different in this sector and be prepared. It’s just the price one has to pay if you are going to trade the precious metals. On the other hand if you can dodge the banksters tricks and avoid getting fleeced one can make a lot of money quickly in this sector.

Ya just got to laugh at the perma bears that keep trying to call a top.

Yes we’re going to get an intermediate correction at some point. I thought it might come in August, but it’s starting to look like it might get pushed out to October. I keep hearing that the financial system is about to implode. Does this chart look like there are problems with the banking sector?

All corrections are going to be buying opportunities for at least the next 10 years. We’re in another long term secular bull market, the same as 1974 to 2000.

Like I said, if these people try hard enough, they may be able to miss an entire secular bull market.

I tend to think the Nasdaq will reach 10,000 before this 4 year cycle tops. But if that plays out price is going to be stretched extremely far above the long term mean setting up for a big correction at the next 4 year cycle low in late 2019 or early 2020.

I was hoping for a healthy intermediate degree correction in August but it’s starting to look like the ICL is going to get pushed out to October unless we get busy moving down almost immediately next week. As I pointed out, sentiment isn’t really excessively bullish yet. The volatile correction in February really damaged investor confidence. It’s taking a long time for traders to become bullish again.

Despite the S&P within spitting distance of the all time highs sentiment isn’t really very close to the kind of excessive levels that usually occur at intermediate tops. This could be the set up for the market to breakout and run for a bit right when everyone is thinking “double top”.

I’ll look at sentiment levels in the weekend report.

The previous seven daily cycles in gold ran 57, 41, 42, 58, 45, 53 and 56 days respectively.

Today is 53 for this cycle.

Wow before the day began I thought stocks were ready to drop into an intermediate correction. Not long after the open it became clear that scenario was coming off the table and another shot at the all time highs for the SPX and 8000 on the Nasdaq was again in play.

We had to jettison our VIX position quick and get long stocks again.

August or early September would seem to have been the best time for stocks to correct after the FOMC meeting yesterday and before the September rate hike. Now I’m starting to wonder if the market is going to be protected all the way into the next rate hike.