2018/2019 Challenge results

I’m going to go ahead and publish this years results as I don’t think anything will change between now and tomorrows close.

The top place this year goes to… me.

  1. The general SMT portfolio +177%.
  2. Manuel K +151%
  3. The SMT metal portfolio +104% (In this portfolio I restrict myself to only trading metals. So I don’t take opportunities in other sectors in this portfolio)
  4. Allan H + 98%
  5. Charley D +93%

I said last July as this years challenge started that it would be unlikely any of last years winners would repeat and make it back to the top five again this year. I’m the only one that did. The reason it’s hard to repeat is that success one year tends to cause people to use the same strategies the next year expecting to get the same results. However market’s rarely deliver the same market conditions from one year to the next, so repeating the same strategies that put one in the top five last year would be unlikely to do the same this year. And that’s exactly what happened. The only way to have any chance of sustained outperformance is to be able to quickly recognize changing market conditions and adapt to them. Most people are not able to change gears that quickly, and it’s why few hedge funds are able to outperform the indexes over time.

The SMT stock portfolio is up 588% over the last 3 ½ years. The S&P during that time is +44%.

The SMT metal portfolio is up over 1000% over the last 3 ½ years. GDX is +83% during that period.

Starting July 1 we’ll try again and see who can adapt and who can’t. The odds are very much against me reaching the top 5 three years in a row, but I have an idea how I think the market is going to evolve over the next 12 months. We’ll see how things progress and who can take advantage of it, and who gets taken advantage of.

The 2019/2020 challenge will start Monday July 1. I’m going to limit the challenge to 50 people this year. You don’t have to make a trade Monday, but you will have to register by informing me you want to participate. Once I reach 50 entrants I will close the challenge and the games will begin.

Please wait till the market opens on Monday to register.

The other 4 top finishers can contact me ([email protected]) to claim your consolation prizes. 6 months free subscription to the SMT for 2nd place. 3 months free subscription for 3rd thru 5th.