What the perma bears fail to understand is that we are now in Kondratieff spring. These people are living in the past. They’ve been waiting for the next shoe to drop ever since 2009. But during spring we don’t get big nasty, deflationary bear markets. During Kondratieff spring 4 year cycles are right translated. Yes at some point we will have another recession but it’s going to be mild and it will correspond with a right translated 4 year cycle so it will be short.

By the end of the day the bears will be scratching their heads wondering why the market didn’t crash on the soft employment report. It didn’t crash because the daily cycle bottomed on Monday. We are however caught in a trading range and probably will be until after the June rate hike. That means it’s going to be difficult to make money during the first half of the year. The second half should be easier.

I’ll say it again. 10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. We will get there before this 4 year cycle tops (Probably in mid 2019).

Caught again

The perma bears got caught on the wrong side of the market again right at the bottom of a daily cycle.

We have a successful retest of the February lows.

At this point I’m about 90% convinced that the parabolic phase is off the table and the long term bull scenario with 10-15 more years to run is the correct call.


Challenge results for March

Markets have just been whipsawing since January and nobody has made any appreciable progress over the last two months. The results are pretty much the same as they were at the end of January.

#1 Dennis G +377%

#2 Bob S +235%

#3 Troy S +199%

#4 Daniel M +182%

#5 Adrian S +161%

The SMT metal portfolio is up 78%

The SMT stock portfolio is up 40%

On a side note the SMT Quest portfolio is up over 1300% but we use options in this portfolio and one of the rules of the challenge is no options.


Lots of people expecting an undercut of the February low (including me). That makes me wonder if we didn’t already print the low on Friday.


I’m laughing my ass off at all the perma bears that were calling for a crash today. There were literally hundreds of youtube videos this weekend calling for a monster gap down this morning, many looking for an 87 crash.


We may not be completely out of the woods yet, but this isn’t the start of a bear market.

10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 is going to be a piece of cake as I now think the long term bull scenario is the more likely path ahead and the bull still has 10-15 years to go. My original thought was that the market was ready to begin a parabolic move higher, but I said I could be wrong and instead this is a long term bull with many years yet to go. It’s starting to look like Chris was right, and the long term bull is the correct scenario.

What drives a bull market?

In the end it isn’t about money printing, interest rates, who’s president, stock buy backs, PE ratio’s, etc. etc.

It’s about whether a new technological advance is driving the bull, or low interest rates and money printing.

I would argue that the 2002-2007 bull was driven by low interest rates and money printing, thus not sustainable.

Since 2009 I’m seeing very interesting developments in transportation, renewable energy, bio & nano technology, and robotics. I think this bull market is sustainable and being driven by the correct fundamentals.