For all of you that bought into the bear market nonsense and got kicked in the teeth again trying to short the bull, if you are ready to see the light you should get another buying opportunity in the next week or two, and an even better buying opportunity sometime in July or early August.
For heavens sake listen to me this time and ignore the perma bear idiots that keep preventing you from making money during this bull market.
These corrections are profit taking events, not the start of a bear market.
Our Quest position is up over 1300% over the last year. We will be entering the next Quest trade soon. Are you going to miss it again because you still can’t recognize a bull market even after 9 years?
I’m expecting gold will suffer an attack immediately following the rate hike on Wednesday. More importantly will be how it closes. If gold can reverse from the attack and close in the green then we should have confirmation the ICL bottomed in May.
If not, or if gold drops below the May low then the metals have a little more work to do before the rally begins.
Either way, I still expect this next intermediate cycle will be the one where the metals finally break out of the basing pattern they’ve been in for the last year and a half.
They may create the panic in mining shares even if gold doesn’t make a lower low. This is how they entered positions in January of 2016. A false breakdown to trigger a selling panic allowing the banks to scoop up all those shares cheaply without moving price against them. Traders need to understand the games that are played in this sector if they are going to control emotions and make money here.
This is why so many of you always miss these larger degree turns. Price often churns for an extended period of time before launching. Impatient traders get frustrated and give up right before the move starts. Then they get left at the station afraid to enter for fear the initial rally is a fake out. Finally when they become convinced it’s for real the market is already overbought. And they can’t buy into overbought conditions. But during the first daily cycle in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle, price can stay overbought for long periods of time.
Many of you will be like a deer in headlights as you watch the first daily cycle leave you behind. By the time it becomes just too painful to stay on the sidelines any longer, of course that’s the time all the rest of the deer finally panic into the market as well, and that’s when the first pullback begins knocking you out for a loss.
We lost about 50 deer during this churning process. Three months from now they are going to wish they had listened to me and had a little more patience.
Now with the NDX and Nasdaq composite on the verge of making new highs I wonder when all of the perma bears that emailed me several months ago to tell me how stupid I was and that stocks had started a bear market will email me back and concede that the idiot wasn’t me????
Folks, bear markets require a catalyst. They don’t just magically appear out of nowhere. They usually coincide with a recession and as I’ve explained before recessions are caused by energy inflation, severe energy inflation. A doubling of the price of oil in a year or less. Until that happens you can just continue to ignore these nitwits that keep trying to pick a top. They’ve been at it for 9 years. If they try hard enough they may manage to miss an entire secular bull market.
10,000 is going to be a piece of cake, and before this is over 10-15 years in the future, 20,000 will be a fond memory.
No matter how many times I call these intermediate bottoms dumb money never listens to me. Back in February when I kept telling people this was not the start of a bear market as there was no catalyst, I can’t tell you how many emails I got telling me I was an idiot and that the market had topped. Well as usual we can see I was correct again and this was not the start of a bear market. It was just a normal correction after a very powerful rally out of the 2016 elections. The idiots were the perma bears who appear to be determined to miss an entire secular bull market because they can’t let go of the memory of 2009.
No one would listen to me back in February when I called the bottom in stocks. Now 17 weeks later with the Nasdaq nearing the all time highs and the Russell breaking out to new highs, now people are ready to listen. Seriously folks, now after 17 weeks you’re ready to buy? Where were you back in February when I was calling the bottom? 17 weeks is too late to start buying. Any breakout to new highs this late in the cycle isn’t going to be sustained. It’s too late. You missed the boat…again.
Now is the time to be buying metals. Gold is 24 weeks into it’s intermediate cycle and deep into a correction. I’m getting tons of emails telling me I’m wrong about gold (just like I got about stocks in February). This is the time to start getting positioned for the next 3-4 month rally in gold. But as usual few will listen to me. No one ever does at these bottoms. They wait 17 weeks before they finally figure out I was right. So many of you are just hopeless. Forever making the same mistake over and over. This has happened so many times now that it’s just becoming hilarious. When I start getting the emails and people start cancelling it’s a sign the perpetual losers are about to get fleeced again.
So here we go again. I told you so about the stock market.
Three months from now after we’ve added another huge pile of money to the metal portfolio I’m going to tell you I told you so again.
Are you ever going to learn?
I’m a contrarian. I buy low and sell high.
Dumb money buys at tops and sells at bottoms.
Are you ever going to change so you can start making money?
Markets move in cycles. Periods of easy trading are followed by periods of difficult trading and vice versa. Unfortunately most impatient traders expect the good times to roll forever and the bad times to never stop. But that of course never happens. The world is constantly changing and markets are no different. After a very difficult bear market metals transitioned into a very profitable baby bull. Most traders missed it or missed most of it because the bear had conditioned people to expect only bad things from precious metals.
Once everyone had recognized the baby bull it became time for more difficulties. Now again most people have become convinced that metals are never going to amount to anything. But after hard times come good times and I think the metals are about to leave many at the station again just like they did during the baby bull.
We just need to get through a final whipsawing stage as we wait for the Fed to raise rates again at the June meeting.