How many times have we heard this one: “He/she/they caused me to blow up my account”?

Blaming someone else for your losses. Pretty much every novice trader in the world goes through this phase, and many experienced traders as well.

Now I’m going to let you in on a secret that will save you thousands or even millions if you will listen and heed this warning.

Everyone loses from time to time. It’s an inevitable fact. No one, and I mean no one will ever win 100% of the time.

Here’s another secret that many traders overlook. Winning percentage has absolutely no bearing on whether one makes money or loses money over time. You can win on 90% of your trades and still lose money over time. Sounds impossible right? Let me give you an example.

The Bollinger band crash trade produces a winning trade about 86-92% of the time. You simply buy when price closes below the lower Bollinger band, then sell on any positive close, or after 15 days, which ever comes first. Almost 90% of the time you will record a win with this simple system. However…

10% of the time it will produce a loss. And the problem comes in that most of the wins tend to be small gains. But when the system fails it produces a big loser. Over time the few losers end up costing you more than the many small winning trades produce. So in the end the system has a negative expectancy despite having a very high win percentage.

Day trading for most people produces the same results. A whole bunch of little winners that gets offset by one or two big losers. Then of course your broker ends up getting rich off of your gambling habit.

As you’ve probably noticed newsletter writers always brag about their winning percentage. It’s how you sell subscriptions. Amateur traders always associate a high winning percentage with making money. In fact nothing could be further from the truth as I’ve just shown. And then of course most newsletter writers will never run a real time portfolio, and most will also cover all the bases by providing one with many alternate scenarios. Elliot wave newsletters are notorious for this tactic, but lets face it, almost every financial newsletter uses this strategy. Of course with many alternate scenarios one of them has to pan out, and that’s the one that is conveniently used to pad their record.

And here’s the most dangerous mistake many traders make.

At some point every guru gets on a hot streak. That attracts subscribers like a moth to a flame. And unfortunately many novice traders assume that the guru has a crystal ball. So what do they do? They become overconfident in his calls and they go all in.

Then sooner or later the guru misses a trade. Remember everyone loses from time to time. If you are all in when your guru has a loss you end up blowing up your portfolio. It doesn’t matter how much money you’ve made following him up to that point. If you are all in when the inevitable loss occurs it’s game over, lights out.

That’s when we hear the cries of he/she/they cost me everything.

The quicker you take this to heart, the better your chances are of making long term gains.





So no matter how big your gurus winning steak is you need to keep in mind that just means he’s closer to the next loser. Plan accordingly. Don’t bet so heavily that you can’t recover when that losing trade hits.

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Challenge results for August

If was kind of a boring month with most assets in consolidation mode all month, so not the conditions for big gains, but we do have a new leader;

Darren R +45%

Bob S +33%

Adrian S +21%

Andreas S +20%

Glenn S +19%

The SMT stock portfolio hasn’t actually completed a trade but as of the close Friday would be at +16%

The SMT metals portfolio is also still holding a trade but as of the close Friday would be +14%

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A day and a half left

Folks you have a day and a half left to receive the $100 off offer.

We clearly have an intermediate cycle low just like I was warning. We are starting the vertical phase of the bull market. Many people exited right at the bottom or cancelled their subscriptions this past week, right before the market took off to the upside.

This is just how the market works. Most of you have to lose money so the rest of us can profit.

If you want to make the big money possible during a parabolic phase and think you may need help staying the course this is your chance to get on board.

Or if you are happy always missing the move because it doesn’t come when you want it to … then just keep doing what you’re doing 🙂 90% of traders won’t make a dime off the bubble.

I intend for the SMT to be part of the 10% that does make (and more importantly, keep) the big gains that are coming.

10,000 will be a piece of cake, 20,000 isn’t out of the question during the really nutty phase of the bubble.

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