17 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY”

  1. gary Post author

    That large recognition candlestick back in June is an important zone. The full weight of the paper manipulation was brought to bear on gold immediately after that rally day. Gold was held at or below the top of that candlestick for almost a month and when it did finally break upwards it was immediately squashed. The momentum was killed and an intermediate degree decline began.

    Unless something changes quickly the miners are screaming that the manipulation isn’t done in this market. And if that’s the case then the powers that be are not going to let gold get back into the range of that June candlestick.

    Watch the miners closely in the coming days and weeks. If they continue to underperform then be prepared to sell once gold tests $1280.

    2. CountOfMeltedCrisco

      With every passing day, the power of “the powers that be” grows more tenuous. What they were able to accomplish just last June may not be repeatable here-and-now in December. The wheels are coming off the ScamWagon, one by one, and today appears to be another such occurrence. I concur with “Jay” that the miners may be underperforming – temporarily – simply because of the shell-shock investors are undoubtedly feeling, exacerbated further by the brutal reality of tax-selling season. It takes a while, sometimes, for a “disconnect” to re-connect.

  2. Jay

    Thanks Gary for the update. Could mining stocks be under performing due to tax loss season? I noticed that junior mining ETF, GDXJ is more sluggish than GDX.

    1. gary Post author

      The miners should be following gold, period. If gold is making higher highs then miners should be making higher highs. Unless that changes quickly then the miners are probably warning that the intermediate rally is going to be capped soon.

    1. gary Post author

      It’s taking longer than I expected now that the stock market is entering a final bubble phase. The bubble has to fully inflate and pop before the inflation can begin to seriously move into the commodity sector.

    2. Jay

      Do you think anybody can predict the future with certainty? You should take a cycle based projection ( or any other prediction ) and watch the market yourself to see if the market follows it – or if the market is doing something else.

      But you did not do that, did you??

      1. Jay

        ( I am replying to Simon ) There are really good market analysts — like Gary – BUT nobody can predict the future with certainty. If you think you can turn off your brain and just follow a prediction and make money, you are heading for a trouble.

  4. Carl Vanhaes

    I repeat what I said Dec. 1, when everybody was getting bullish-crazy: a simple observation at the daily chart of gold/GLD shows that the Nov bottom did have a confirmation by almost all indicators, so NO divergence with MACD and other oscillators, including volumes indicators. I said that day that one more low, even just a re-test, was necessary to clear the way. But this was, and still is, just an opinion….

  5. Bob UK

    I haven’t got a clue what is going on to be perfectly honest but welcome Gary’s charts and info which seems to make sense to me.

    I am waiting for what I see as a buying opportunity in either the miners or in the conventional markets – still waiting… and waiting 🙂

    1. TenYear

      Bob:

      I’ve been a regular around here and other sites for years and like Gary have been trading stocks for the majority of my career. Maybe I’m amiss but it seems like you always post something of the nature, “I haven’t a clue of what is going on, etc….” I know you are newer around here, but not that new. I think you should volunteer a little more information in your comments as I think it would help others around here especially the newbies. All in all, at the end of the day, nobody knows for sure what any stock will do. Not a lot of people post and the more posts the better IMO, and I think Gary would agree as long as the posts are not bad to others. I invite you to speak up.

      Patience is a virtue and can pay rewards. But he who hesitates, well…. and no action will get you no reward.

      There is a monster move coming in the S&P. I think the same of the miners. I hope we all get it right.

      cheers.

      T

      1. Bob UK

        TenYear, would it make you feel better if I posted that I know exactly what is going on but that I come here just to confuse and annoy you?

        No? OK, I will just be honest – I don’t know what is going on at the moment. These are very uncertain times in the global markets. They are also very uncertain times geopolitically.

        The pumping up of stocks in recent years has been simply incredible. Stunning. Amazing. I, like most, am currently sitting around trying to work out what is going to happen next now that QE is finished.

        The EU is in a right mess at the moment – Greece is collapsing again. Italy is a mess. Spain and Portugal are seeing some signs of growth but only because they have been so dire for so many years. Ditto Eire. The Netherlands is in a mess also and even mighty Germany is now slowing down considerably. Poland was doing OK up until the moment that EU sanctions on Russia meant that all the fruit & veg they were selling to Russia had to stop.

        As for the UK – all smoke and mirrors. Unlike the US housing bubble that burst in 2008 us Brits had a similar housing bubble. Instead of bursting it we decided to ramp, ramp, ramp house prices ever since. We now have more people than ever living off food banks and some of the most expensive houses in the world. Oh, and our nationa debt, which was zero in 1997, and was 500 billion in 2010 is now about 1.4 trillion – Pounds not Bucks.

        Don’t get me started on China and Japan – looking at Japan right now the market is down 200 points again.

        Do I know what is going on? No, of course not. No sane person does.

        Shall I tell you what I think?

        I think we could see an almighty crash in conventional stocks. Or we could see them pump up conventional stocks even more. I don’t know.

        I am not convinced about money flowing out of conventional stocks into commodities if the conventional markets crash because, simply, I believe there will be a dash for cash and everything will get trashed. But when that crash comes I do not know. They have pumped everything up so let’s see what happens now.

        I think, most likely, we will get some kind of correction and then it will be onwards and upwards again.

        But if there is an almighty conventional stock market crash, and miners go down along with everything else, then I think it will be time to get into miners as everything else is falling to pieces IMPO.

        There is deflation across the EU and in Japan. It is a mess. I think the USD will get stronger and stronger and, well, who knows. I don’t.

        I do think we will see oil in the 50 bucks range soon – this week probably – and I am wondering whether it wll go down to the 40s.

        I am keeping an eye on FTSE listed miners and the GDX and GDXJ etfs along with some miners in the Americas. I tend to try and look at environmentally friendly, if such a thing exists, miners.

        What are the shopping malls like in the US? Are they full of people spending? Or just people browsing and not buying. Every day I read reports that conflict about spending this year – one will say that sales are up, another says that sales are down.

        So I read a lot about what is going on. I take in people’s views. I listen to people’s opinions and I think a lot about what is happening. I don’t have any answers. I am no expert. I am no guru – please don’t follow me as we will only end up lost somewhere.

        Is that enough for you?

        🙂

        1. Dirk

          I am new here and I haven’t got a clue what is going on to be perfectly honest but welcome Gary’s charts and comments which seems to make sense to me.

          I think Bob has hit the nail on the head!

  6. Marc

    Gary,
    I agree the miners aren’t reacting well. I would have thought with gold looking like a decent bottom was in that the miners would be going crazy ESPECIALLY since fuel costs (integral to mining ops) are dramatically lower.

    Your bullish call earlier this year was spot on.

    My only question is why would TPTB want to supress PM prices or even care?

    1. gary Post author

      My guess is because they can, and since position limits are not being enforced they can continue to drive price where they want it and it’s pure and simple a money machine for them.

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