100 thoughts on “March 12 Forum

  1. Gary Post author

    The problem with most retail type traders is they are focused way too much on the short term gyrations. They miss the big picture and they miss the big moves.

    Because it didn’t seem feasible at the time most everyone ignored my prediction that the Nasdaq would easily get to 10,000. It’s already half way there and many still refuse to acknowledge what is happening.

    They may get a second chance. Most will screw this one up as well.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would even go so far as to say that most analysts are still trying to pick a top. They are as clueless now as they were when the Nasdaq broke out above the 2000 high a year ago and 50% points ago.

  2. tallboy

    Agree it’s almost comical to listen to these talking heads explain how it’s about to turn any moment. If they say it enough sooner or later they will be correct. But to your benefit Gary I listen to them but they do not effect my trading any longer. Cycles do with your help of course.

  3. Gary Post author

    This ICL and new intermediate cycle has progressed exactly as I predicted and traders reacted exactly like they always react during a correction.

    Human nature never changes. This whole process will repeat exactly the same way during the next correction.

    Dumb money will always be dumb money. Maybe 5 traders out of 100 have the ability to control their emotions and become smart money. Those that are capable of thinking differently than the herd can make a lot of money. Those that can not will just keep making the same mistakes over and over their entire investing career.

    1. MrBurns

      Gary, what is your interpretation of reduced exposure to S&P longs by hedge funds since January? (as per sentimentrader)

      1. Gary Post author

        Most people don’t understand how the COT reports work. Different types of traders use different strategies.

        The large specs (hedge funds) are trend followers. As price rises they become more and more bullish as they keep pressing the trend. When price falls they become bearish as they convert to a downward trend.

        The commercials on the other hand are regression traders. They use the futures to hedge. So the more price rallies the more bearish they become and the more they hedge. The opposite happens as price drops. At some point they see value and they lift most of their hedges.

        The COT’s are really only valuable when they reach extremes (the same as sentiment).

        Keep in mind that markets go up differently than they go down. So markets can continue to rise for a long time even after the commercials reach extreme hedged levels. On the other hand once the commercials lift their hedges price usually reverses pretty quickly. That’s why tops behave much differently than bottoms.

        1. MrBurns

          So if I understand correctly, if the hedge funds turn and press bullish, it adds to the ramp-up speed as they have more than just pocket change to pour into the machine.

      1. Gary Post author

        I believe I was predicting a slingshot and that’s exactly what we got in the Nasdaq and semi’s.

        I never once touched my stock positions other than to convert my 50% UDOW to a full 100% TQQQ.

        1. Christian

          “I never once touched my stock positions other than to convert my 50% UDOW to a full 100% TQQQ.”


          You SOLD when the Market was misbehaving during what turned out to be a HCL!!

          Gary — for F*ck sakes man — you know how much i love ya but please stop pretending like you always have it all figured out, because you don’t :/

          1. Gary Post author

            We just converted to a 100% position in TQQQ when the 100 EMA held.

            A perfect trade would have been to buy at the open that morning but we had to wait for the close to make sure it held.

          2. Gary Post author

            ON the other hand you were looking for a sell off after the employment numbers. Instead it gapped higher. I’m guessing you got caught and left behind. Then you said the market was too stretched above the 10 DMA and one would get a better buying opportunity on a pullback. As we can see this morning it’s not pulling back.

            You are getting left behind. I warned this could happen.

          3. Christian

            I haven’t been left behind at all.. I’m just not FULLY invested because I’m a lot more risk averse than you are, especially when trading a triple leverage.

            And I only warned Traders to exercise caution because Stocks are stretched way above their 10DMA and I’m not completely buying into the whole Parabola Extravaganza scenario just yet (I’m happy to be wrong on this one btw).

            Remember Gary, you can’t BUY WHEN EVERYONE IS SCARED if you don’t have a bit of dry powder in the bank 🙂 That’s how I was able to pick up a few extra shares when we hit the 200DMA back in February while the rest of you were getting slaughtered!

          4. Gary Post author

            I think anyone would agree that I converted to a 100% position in TQQQ at a time when just about everyone was pissing their pants.

          5. faz

            Personally i think it took some courage to stand firm there on that point. I panicked at that hcl and did not have the courage to jump back in. Feels like i just bought high and sold low. Didnt want to risk being churned some more and so i guess im gonna have to hang on to the extra dry powder in the hope i can deploy it some time. Thanks Christian for staying visible.

  4. Americano

    One year ago today ( Sunday ) Bitcoin surpassed gold price per ounce.
    In 2018 I’m forecasting Bitcoin passing gold price – per KILO –
    At that time “ Land Ho “ will be heard being yelled from…..
    The Mayflower.

    1. jyoung3759

      You sir are a major tool. High drama calls for high losses. You should not be wasting any money in any market because you simply do not understand. You are on a short trip down the river Hades. Good luck ROTFLMAO, but honestly I feel bad for you.

      1. RTTPD

        Jyoung —–

        No need to feel bad for the ole’ chap……

        When you run with the dogs you get bitten by the fleas. Simple as that.

  5. golddigger

    I’m a new member and so far Gary has stressed the must do trades and given the enter at your own tsk trades. He fortold the future albeit in more than one scenario. He called the miners break out and exit so well I made money twice! He stressed the market is acting reminiscent of past bubble beginnings but warned and I think it was 60/40 we would suffer a 2-7% correction. He called the rebound, the swing lie, and the flag. When flag broke he went against himself and tried to outsmart the market and lost a few points. His Oct quest call is up 700%! The market broke out just how he predicted! It’s up asI type! Even my short term options have converted to HUGE gains. Gee I did lose $500 on the oil trade boo-hoo. The miners and gold are really sucking it and he warned it’s not time for those it’s SM time. I haven’t been in the stock market until Jan 31st, 20017 since 2011. WHAT A WELCOME BACK. It was painful but in the end if you would have bought when the VIX was >50 like Gary said you’d be up 20%+ in a few weeks! Holy smokes people. The whining and bickering and obvious attempts at one upsmanship to maybe start your own blog are Super TRANSPARENT. Gary, thanks for turning my Portfolio into truegains which I have withdrawn and used to pay all my debts. Still have my UDOW calls. Go market go! Kudos god bless you Gary Savage!!!

  6. bigglaze

    She’s on the move again today!

    I bought at the hammer and am still holding so I am a happy camper!

  7. Marcus

    Good morning Mr Savage.

    I have only recently discovered your website about 6 weeks ago via a referral from another financial website I belong to. In that short time, I became impressed not only with your analysis, but also the calm repose in which you presented your discussion of patterns, formations, wave counts, etc. Good stuff. However, I have not visited your site for perhaps the last 1½ weeks, having been tied down by family business out of town. I was surprised, therefore, to see upon my return that there will be minimal video presentations from now on (which I will miss), but also that there is no longer the option of an annual subscription. I understand your point on the video presentations (business is business, after all), but I am saddened to see that only monthly subscriptions are now offered. My question, therefore, is: are you firm on the monthly subscription component, going forward?

    I wish, knowing what I know now, that I had acted more quickly on an annual subscription when the opportunity was there, but again, I was slow to act (my fault) and was taken out of town on other business.

    Regards, Marcus

    1. Gary Post author

      Monthly only from now on. I plan on winding down the newsletter over the next 12-18 months once I think the 4 year cycle in the stock market has topped.

      1. ziasDad

        we are all curious about your future. What will you do with your time? Now, with your blog, you subs, watching the markets–all that takes a major chunk of your time every day. Will you leave LV? Do climbing and lifting full time? Or do you have another business venture that’s calling you? Whatever you do, here’s to a great new chapter in your life.

    1. espresso

      JPM just pissed somebody whipsawed and looted the market better than they did. “No fair!!!” they scream as they shake down their regular customers daily.

  8. Infamous_M

    Gary, Are you in need of money. A while back, you raised the price from $200 to $500 where you claim that will get rid of the trolls. Now you’re saying you may retire in a couple of years so you’re going month to month in which the price is going up 20%.

    What’s with this? Did you lose your money longing Gold?

    What’s next, your going to change your mind and go back yearly which will be around $1,000?

    1. Gary Post author

      I can’t be locked into yearly subscriptions if I’m going to retire.

      Think about it. If I’m going to retire it kind of means no more money coming in doesn’t it? If I needed money I wouldn’t be retiring.

      It’s just these kind of ignorant comments that I’m sick and tired of. I’m going to be happy to be done with this, and done with people like you.

      1. jacob2

        Congrats on the (maybe) retirement thing. On the positive side you get to jettison many things you don’t like. However, you will never loose the market playing on your head… forever. Sometimes the thinking about retirement is more fun then the actual deed. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

        1. Gary Post author

          I will try to exit as close to the top of this 4 year cycle as possible. That will be a good time to retire as probably everything will get sucked down into the next 4 YCL.

          There just won’t be any reason to be in the market at that time.

          1. goldtrader

            Why would u do that when gold will probably start to shine after the SM tops. U will miss out

          2. Gary Post author

            Unlikely IMO. The 3 year cycle in the CRB is starting to line up with the 4 year cycle in stocks. Probably everything will go down together.

    2. mexican

      Mr. Infamous_m
      You are a arrogant uneducated idiot, People like you are jealous maggots. No wonder Gary has had enough of all the bullshit goofs like you post on the blog!

  9. victor

    this canning questions make people like him to get rid of that headike blog, actions like this shows that Gary doesn’t need your pity money…

  10. Christian

    I guess that stupid A** comment was deleted :/

    Seriously Gary.. Why bother with the blog at this point? Especially if you’re planning on retiring in 12 months — you’re just asking for a headache 🤕

    1. Mogonzo64

      I agree with you Christian.

      Gary, as it gets closer to you retiring I think the comments will only get worse as all the idiots come out to get their cheap shots in before you close shop. I think it’s inevitable as all the jealous and/or disgruntled people attack you more.

  11. jacob2

    Retirement. On the positive side you get to loose all the things you don’t like. What you can never loose is the market game playing on your head. Sometimes the thinking about retirement is more fun then the actual deed. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

  12. JJHarmen

    Any analyst who has been calling for higher stock prices over the last nine years is now an expert. Those who have been calling for higher gold and miners prices, not so gifted. I am sitting on GDX and it has been dead money for years.

  13. Lemonjelly Tariff Junior

    Half of DJIA decline today is due to one company.

    Boeing Co., as the market assessed the impact of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on some of the U.S.’s largest industrial companies. Boeing’s share BA, -2.76% selloff, down 3%, or $10.47, was exacting a roughly 75-point toll on the blue-chip benchmark.

    NAZ keeps ascending no matter.

  14. bigglaze

    Would ya look at that. NDX cracked 2 resistance lines.

    I wonder what ol Clive is thinking now…

  15. allthatglitters

    If Gary is correct and a low for Gold is 9 days away (3/21), I can’t help but think the miners could start leading the move higher very soon.

  16. Goild

    The miners have been flat, JNUG tagging $13 many times, for a while.
    I suspect that if the miners would take off after 3/21 there should be an undercut.
    This is similar to November/December 2016.
    One difference is that at the previous FOMC to miners took off.
    Would they take off again?
    The miners have been resilient too.

    1. hamvestor

      I have read and reread your post a dozen times, and I’m still not clear what you are trying to say. Could you clarify? Thanks.

      1. Goild

        I am arguing a case for the miners to go up.
        And a possible scenario at the FOMC based on previous performance.
        I am long gold/miners and wish them to go up.

        1. hamvestor

          Thanks Goild. A number of commentators I follow are expecting the same thing, based on cycles, EW, etc., as well as past precedent. That makes me wonder whether things will play out differently.

  17. Rapunsel

    What if next FOMC they don’t raise rates?

    Everyone is expecting a hike. Inflation no where to be found.

    Just sayin….

    1. allthatglitters

      Ha, I love it! My bold prediction for 2018 was zero rate hikes. So far it’s been true.

      However, with the new guy in they probably have to hike at least once if only to save face and pretend they know what they’re doing. You’d think this would be the one for it.

      1. Don

        How could you possibly conclude that there will be no rate hikes in 2018? Provide some explanation rather than just making wild statements.

    2. Goild

      If there is no rate increase likely will be good for gold.
      With the SM pumping UP the likelihood of a rate hike is high.
      The issue would be how much. There might be a surprise for 0.5% hike.
      Then gold probably will suffer.

  18. Don

    The Semis are clearly leading the Nasdaq to new highs with over priced Nvidia leading the charge. Intel and AMD are no longer in on the party.

  19. Don

    Anyone watching SEA? It had been dead in the water for some time, despite the supposedly
    strong performance of the economy. Doesn’t make sense.

    1. Gary Post author

      Anyone been watching the SOX? They’ve been going gangbusters because of the strong economy.

      Makes sense…

        1. lobster

          Are you long anything Don?

          And you can say what you want but the market trend is undeniably still positive. You should watch the link below if you have not already. Different approach than Gary but the conclusion is the same. You should be long stocks right now and should have been for the past 12-15 months (never mind the past 9 years).


          1. Don

            High stock valuations always look justified when the economy improves as earning pick up. Going long anything at this stage, after nine year run is, in my opinion, a gamble. The rapid sell off in February should serve as a warning as to just how quick several months of gains can evaporate in a short time.

          2. Gary Post author

            The sell off came at the very end of a very right translated intermediate cycle. Classic bull market behavior.

            When an intermediate cycle left translates that’s when we need to worry.

    1. Gary Post author

      The metals are doing exactly what I warned they would do. The banks are whipsawing everyone.

  20. golddigger

    ignoring the positive people and letting the trolls get you upset is exactly what they want but I totally UNDERSTAND. I have had a deck business for 12 years. I’m subject to online reviews that I can not modify or delete in 8+ different places. I’ve got snooty idiot housewives grilling me for their unrealistic expectations , needy whining husbands who get their feelings hurt if they don’t receive immediate attention or call back.

    I posted a unique build on my favorite VW website and a few nasty trolls decided to pollute my thread with obnoxiously stupid comments. The moderator decided to delete the entire thread even though there was several pages of detailed descriptions and photos that I took the time to document and post for OTHERS BENEFIT and to enjoy!

    I don’t blame you one bit to say “bye”. I’m doing the same. I’m using the money you made me to start my new business not subject to this bullshit lowest common Denominator Facebook dog pack bully mentality. Our society is ill and the immature idiots are being fooled into destroying the ones that are on track

    I count my blessings to have nearly doubled my entire port in 2 months…that’s what can be done with such precise accurate predictions!

    1. Mogonzo64

      Also keep in mind that Gary has been the proverbial “ Goose who has laid the Golden Eggs” and SMTP has been a gravy train. People are somewhat understandably upset that he is going to retire. No more easy money to be made following his advice.

      On the other side, we could have trolls here who have ulterior motives. They hate that Gary is giving away trade secrets to us “ Sheeple”. Their goal is to anger and discredit Gary every chance they get. In some ways I’m surprised the PPT, Fed, Central banks haven’t shut down his service. Conspiracy theory you say… I think not! Okay, maybe that’s stretching things a bit.😉

  21. jacob2

    Bubble? No bubble unless the dow and S&P join the party. More churn sideways dead ahead imo.

      1. jacob2

        So just a tech bubble only? Own lots and tech in a sweet spot right now but still expect pot holes, another crack in the market ar some point, and then tech won’t be so popular.

        1. Gary Post author

          We’re only starting the fifth week of this new intermediate cycle and sentiment is still quite depressed. The next intermediate degree correction isn’t likely to begin until May or early June.

  22. Gary Post author

    Gold probably has to test the 100 WMA and push the slow stochastics to oversold before the ICL is complete.

    Some patience will be needed before jumping on the metals again.

  23. zbigkid

    JNUG to 500 is what you’ll be most remembered for, and of course it’ll never happen. So its a good thing you are getting out, as you would have been mocked on that one forever.

    1. Christian

      To be honest..

      I can’t tell if that’s ZBIGKID or ZKOTPEN — probably a bit of both, a mish-mash.

      I’ll let you decide 🙂

  24. zkotpen


    “Unlikely IMO. The 3 year cycle in the CRB is starting to line up with the 4 year cycle in stocks. Probably everything will go down together.”

    Bravo — very happy to see you finally abandon the “one bubble after another” idea. That JNUG to 500 idea will very likely turn out to be blue sky. I’m glad you’re retiring, rather than being shut down for blue sky predictions in the precious metals!

    With that in mind, you might want to rescind that JNUG to 500 notion altogether. Extremely risky, and you might want some posts you can point to where you tell people that prediction is officially off the table. Cheers!

    1. Andy

      zkot, why is Gary at any risk? he is not an investment advisor by any stretch of the imagination so any lawsuit you hint of would lose and lose badly in court.

  25. zkotpen

    Gary, zbigkid,

    “So its a good thing you are getting out, as you would have been mocked on that one forever.”

    Not just mocked, but invited to civil court, and paying an attorney’s retirement as a minimum!

  26. zkotpen


    “The metals are doing exactly what I warned they would do. The banks are whipsawing everyone.”

    The cycles are outlining the moves in gold perfectly well.

  27. Gary Post author

    Seriously are you people that stupid?

    What comes after a multi year cycle low? What is the reaction when the rubber band stretches to the downside?

    Look at the chart above and tell me what happened after the last 2 multi year cycle lows in stocks.

    The next 3 YCL in the CRB will complete the basing phase and set the stage for the next big surge in commodity prices.

    Jeez most of you are destined to be dumb money for the rest of your lives. Sigh…

    1. jacob2

      Yep, wish it was sooner ( own some) but July of 19 seems about right for gold. The people at Korelion economics should all be selling pot by then. Serves them right as I hate there politics.

  28. Lemonjelly Tariff Junior

    Mueller throwing in the towel on Gestapo investigation and declare failure to find anything of substance… will provide next huge rally to NAZI DAQI 10,000.

  29. desertsun999

    Gary, I find it interesting that the 2015/16 bottom in the precious metals would stretch out to a 2025 top if we have another 9yr uptrend. That just so happens to be the projected time frame for the 8yr cycle bottom in the dollar. Its starting to look like this thing is going to be stretched out much further than anybody was anticipating. Wow……….who would of ever thought! That really makes these last 7yrs in the pm’s feel like a person has been bent over….ha…ha.

  30. MrBurns

    Nasdaq will likely pause here on overbought conditions and AVGO/QCOM deal now struck dead by old Donald Trump himself.

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