Strictly Necessary Cookie should be enabled at all times so that we can save your preferences for cookie settings.
If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.
Well the gold part is confusing. Thought you said gold is beginning its intermediate decline. Why would it all of a sudden rally? That would suggest another daily cycle in this intermediate cycle which doesn’t seem right
Cycles become useless in triangles.
I don’t know which one of those trendlines will ultimately form the top. I do know it’s going to be very difficult to trade this market for the next couple of months.
Probably best to just sit it out for now.
Ok. Didn’t know that cycles are useless in range bound patterns. In that case, yes its probably best to sit out on gold. Oil and stocks are more straightforward. Cheers
Just don’t stick around too long in either as it looks like we are in third daily cycles for both.
They should both be left translated.
I’ll be taking profits on our long stock market positions pretty quickly.
One of these days I will get into the kinds of rules I follow when making short term trades since that might benefit new traders here who might get the idea that its easy to succeed at scalping (talking to the novices on the other side of the SMT paywall).
One thing I have to agree with Gary about is that day-trading is not suitable for most people. By that I refer to 90% or more of all traders. This kind of activity is a razor-toothed reptile-filled bathtub of hazards and sharp rocks just laying in wait to screw you out of every penny you put into it.
The only way you can do it consistently is by following a fairly rigid rule-book and not breaking or bending your rules as you go. And that probably sounds strange because the implications behind short term trading is that its akin to being a machete-armed horseback warrior making quick kills and riding off in the sunset each day with a few fresh scalps.
Nothing is further from the truth. Every trade needs to be carefully planned with targeted entries and exits. Multiple charts need checks and confirmations before you make a commitment. And anyone trying this had best be very well versed in technical trading before attempting to outsmart the market.
If your nature leans to gambling well just stop right now or you will go broke.
Anyway, if anyone is curious I can write about the rules. Not that anyone will pay attention. They almost never do. But if you want to be in the market making your own calls you need to appreciate that this is like any other occupation in that it takes years to develop enough expertise to have confidence you know what you are doing.
Not that I always know what I am doing. Only God and the angels see perfection. But I can say unequivocally you can beat the odds if you work at it seriously and keep an open mind.
I just thought I would leave one more comment about yesterdays trading Robert. You seemed surprised that I suddenly doubted the sustainability of JDST or that gold would keep falling and I will admit that was a pretty fast change of heart.
There were a few tiny clues I had that something might be amiss.
Right near the end of the trading day in the last 15 minutes I was monitoring both JNUG and JDST as they formed wedges that were really bothering me since those usually end in price reversals. On JNUG the falling wedge suggested price might not reach the March 28th lows and that perplexed me because gold was looking so negative.
Well anyway, what happened next that changed my mind was that JNUG broke above its falling channel line. And not by much either. It amounted to mere pennies and had one not been focused on the price action they would have missed such a tiny clue altogether.
But since that minuscule discrepancy came right at the end of the trading day I knew better than to hang around and wait to get squashed come Friday. I can’t say for certain I was right or wrong in taking the decision to sell and we will only know for sure in the light of tomorrow morning but for me, any violation of a trend channel is a warning sign and most especially if it comes very late in the day.
The other thing is that I am very wary of holding overnight when gains have been fair already. I had already seen an 8% gain in less than 24 hours and did not want to push my luck or get greedy. That’s one way I stay on the correct side of a trade. Yes, there might have been another few percent by holding out longer but it could also cost everything if you are wrong and the truth is that most people make the mistake of not knowing when to take the profit and run.
Buying is easy. Getting out in a timely way confounds almost everyone.
I hope that helps explain my thinking. Meanwhile, we shall see what comes next and then critique my method more if you like. I think JNUG will form a base on Friday and could be getting ready to bounce back. But I don’t know that for certain and neither does anyone else.
We can only take this one day at a time.
Completely agree with you Ped – harder to know when to get out of a trade. I find I can spot bottoms better than I can spot tops. I find it helps to look at the opposite ticker for clues.
Please do share your rules on shorter term trades – I would love to learn from your years of experience. I tend to do much better at longer term trades – less pressure and perhaps I just need more practice scanning lots of info. at once quickly. Thanks.
Hi Ped, I agree that Day Trading is hard without following very tight rules… One method that can be done with or without charts… it requires the ability to use limit orders… PIVOT POINTS INFO- its good stuff… it gives R2, R1 Pivot, S1, S2. So if on ABC company the Pivot is 21 and R1- 22, R2-23, S1- 20, S2 19… I would have a BUY LIMIT SET AT 21.25 AND once the order is placed… next put in SELL ORDER FOR 22.25 just above R1 ***using Limits orders in advance when you know the Pivot and Support and Resistance levels… limits orders take the human emotion out it… I use watch my daytrades very closely… but if I could not and made a daytrade… I would put in stop just above S1. I will agree day trading is not for everyone… my best trades both day and swings have been because I use limit orders… take care- p
Now would be a good time to put down that glass of Scotch.
Gary…. An alternative view (possibly limited to myself): We’re already in the Bubble, but no recognizes it for what it is. What investors are experiencing is sector rotation within an increasingly elevated bull market. Different groups take the lead at different times but always we’re headed UP. Sorry NO big definable corrections just ongoing confusion. ie: Post election to the 1st of the year the story was all infrastructure materials and financials. Money came out of these names during the 1st quarter and went into the FANGS. This won’t last. It’s change up time again and the commentary will be something else beginning next week. Time to pivot once again. Perhaps back to the materials, cyclicals and maybe biotech? The markets cannot maintain the same commentary for more then a quarter which keeps everyone on the sidelines, confused and sitting on the sidelines of the biggest bull market in history. is this you?
I think the bubble phase began on election night. It has nothing to do with the Trump stimulus package or tax cuts or any of that nonsense. Those are just the trigger to release the market that was going to go up anyway.
The driver is and has always been years of QE. Once QE 1 began the next bubble became inevitable.
Ped,
I’m interested in seeing your trading rules, if you have a moment.
I have already indicated my study materials for trading — would be interesting to see how they converge with yours (plenty of hints & terms you use indicate more convergence of views: Consistency, discipline, calculating risk & reward before entering a trade, off the top of my head).
As you can tell, I’m happy with my forecasting ability, and plan to continue developing it.
My big area for improvement is the practical trading side of things — which I am working on, with enthusiasm!
Cheers!
Ditto Ped. I`d like to see your rules myself. I might be too dumb, but I`m not to old to learn new stuff. Thanks in advance.
Telling people what they should believe isnt winning an argument. You can shout from the roof tops as loud as you like, and by all means continue to share your opinions about Trump the state of America, the tragedy of the Left loosing. Thats all they are opinions neither, right or wrong. In my mind you represent the modern phenominum of petrcieved leftest moral supiriority, you have no real thoughtful arguments to put forward. You simply preach at others what should be. If we dont except your theoligy ,we are clueless ignorant idiots. …..Welcome to the 21st century hysteria….
Gary,
Thanks for removing irrelevant political discussion — I’m sure there’s a more appropriate forum for it.
Cheers~
Ped, how is the Nikkei 20000 looking? You have been quiet about it for a week or more now.
I personally see nothing confusing in gold/USX now.
The dead-cat bounce of USX has been predictable, hence predictable that non-PM commodities would rise along with stocks (especially that CRB index and oil were very late in their DCs; the DC of stocks though was a bit confusing).
Thus gold is now falling towards 1235 (a volatility axis it forged in June-July) as USD completes its dead-cat bounce through FOMC minutes.
Gold/JPY/GBP will be on a safe buy post-FOMC minutes while nonPM commodities and stocks on safe (i.e. low-risk) shorts.
I expect a big reddish candle for cotton post USDA’s plantings report at noon ET.
Short cotton + long gold will be my positions at the end of next week.
If silver strength remains and gold continues to weaken, we are getting very close to seeing a breakout in the gold:silver ratio. We may have another possible chance coming soon. Below 68 would be very promising.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/j5t20c6J/
Gary,
What would be the best vehicle to trade
Off the next cycle low long term, AAPL or the NAS like QQQ?
Well we have a cycle low right now, but I assume you mean the larger intermediate cycle low in April or May.
I almost never trade individual stocks. So go with one of the ETF’s. SPY, QQQ, or DIA. XBI might be Ok but I wish Trump would stop basing the health care industry.
I like TQQQ, FAS. I also like TNA, but it might not be suitable for everyone as it can be volatile on daily basis… but if you catch the moves they are very exaggerated and profitable- p
Good morning,
Ped, yes it would be awesome to read your trading rules.
Thanks.
Anyone can pick entries. Picking exits is the real problem in this business.
Most newsletters will pick an entry but almost none will give you an exit.
They conveniently leave out the most difficult part of the trade.
Ped – given your encouragement to look at the Nikkei – I’m seeing on the weekly that it seems to be heading down – so perhaps gold will go up if there’s still a correlation? So in your experience, if the Nikkei heads down (seems to be closing beneath the 20ma weekly), then perhaps the other indices will follow shortly? Thanks.
Hello Ped. Turns out you were right JNUG is poping big today but for some reason I dont think it will last next week. About taking profits, its been my main problem in trading. On one end they say that you should let your profits run and then on the other side they say take profits quickly. Believe it or not my main problem has been letting profits run. Many times I could have cashed out on winning trades but instead held them too long and then out of the blue the trend reverses and I lost everything. Some say day trading is a quick route to the poor house but honestly I feel that there is much much lower risk being a day trader than a swing trader. I can tell how many times I bought NUGT/DUST where im up like 10% + and then bam overnight gap down. I would like to see your trading rules as well
Another slow day, and so slow the profits are.
So far I have pocketed $667. Now I am going for breakfast.
Good trading to all.
I can’t tell if GDX will be up or down next week but monthly it sure looks like Apr will be an up month.
This “market” is nothing more than a “script”. The 94TD cycles are a part of that “script”; the perpetual BTFD is a part of that ‘script”. And by script, I mean that much of the day’s trading is simply programmed, almost like a market stress test that could be run in an office of a multi billion dollar IB. The “news” or whatever Fed speak might come out during the day can, or will, temporarily interrupt the script, but within minutes it’s usually right back on track towards either ramping vertically or “compressing” to kill off the options premium on whatever side of the market its most advantageous for whomever sold all of the option premo.
Much of the time its simply the tail wagging the dog with this stuff. The derivatives “side bets” that expire roughly 3x a week (they are always adding more gamma to the market with additional options expiry’s), a VIX that is always at rock bottom (i.e. more gamma in the market), and rigged, pre-programmed trading the creates a nevernding series of “V’s/”W’s”/”M’s” all speak to basically minimal liquidity and just herded trading with minimal human interaction.
The bubble phase was inevitable the minute qe1 started.
The NASDAQ is going to print a bullish engulfing Candle on the weekly charts.
Weekly CCI Sell Signals still in place for: $compq, $spx, $indu. Weekly CCI Buy Signal on $gold. Still in cash. I am thinking about staying out for next month or two unless there is a massive sell off something… nothing that I follow right now strikes my interest… the Risk- Reward is just too high. Weather is getting nice out here in Michigan… fish are starting to bite… steelheads are running… maybe I’ll do some traveling. An old saying about the Market: Sell in May Go Away… take care everyone- p
Note- Trading Plan vs Forecasting… trading plans are good… forecasting is dangerous game… I try to be market neutral as much as possible and follow simple price action Higher High Lower Low and volume and the daily and monthly Pivots…
Note- for April… it will be interesting to see if the Indexes start trading above or below there monthly Pivots… March was kind of Gap n Crap- Wide n Loose Trading up R1 R2 and then into and bouncing off the Monthly Pivot this week… Dec, Jan n Feb did not have this problem… the trading action of March tells me the that Run that Started in Nov is now tired and under pressure… p
The US market mimics the NIKKEI, although it can lag 1-2 months. I expect the US market to be heading down for some time. That should give gold a lift as we possibly get a little fear into the air for the first time in 15 months.
I don’t understand this guy (SMT) is saying to sell stock market long positions after days and days of saying that the market is in the final phase of a blow off top. What if it doesn’t pull back and then a guy is left just watching?
You’re nuts I never said to sell. We haven’t even tested the March highs yet.
Ok, I listened again and a couple of times you said that you wouldn’t hang on to long positions in the SM for very long so I mistook that to mean sell soon but then you also said that you expected to at least reach the March highs.
Today is payday and so SM may end higher taking USD along.
Beware of a reversal on JNUG, a falling knife.
what the hell has payday got to do with the SM? You think that average Joe runs to his broker to buy stocks on his payday? That’s hilarious!!
Everything I touch turns to shit. I sold my ZGJ at a loss and now it’s moving up. Should I buy it back? Are the gold miners going up or down over the next month ? I am not going to trade in and out so much.
You are trying to day trade your emotions. You have no hope of making good money like that.
What the heck is ZGJ?
BD,
Sorry to hear about it.
Try trading smaller quantities.
Check Dday posts for TA lessons.
See everything as a channel and then buy/sell at support/resistance.
Mind the long term results.
I am done for the day with +$837.
Good trading to all.
Have a nice weekend.
Wow thats very nice. So I take it you are a daytrader Goild? Is that just from trading gold miners? How much % of your account do you use to trade miners?
Best moves happen in sectors where not many are looking hard. Example: gush vs SM etfs.
pm stock etfs locked in a tight trading range. Trading tough until BO.
Robert,
Here is more or less how I do it.
There is no clear road at any time, but there are candle formations that are bullish. I mainly trade JNUG long. I try to open a likely road and act according to how the market behaves. I do not use hard stops.
So I buy 2K shares, and may take 2 points if the candle formation is no promising or wait longer according to probabilities. I take a look at the candle length, and buy at the candle bottom, that is the support for the candle period. If the market goes against me, I may double or triple, which I do not recommend as this is risky and a bad habit, but works for me. An important piece is to see every thing as a channel and buy and sell at support and resistance. I guess most of it is scalping but other times one has good runs. Playing 2K JUNG shares or 4k shares is not stressing as is a small % of my default account. I find little risk and I make money pretty much every day. I added more today for +$900 and +$6.3K for the week. Today I did about 30 trades. Keep in mind that trading must be in agreement with your traits/personality. I am waiting for a nice candle formation for a swing trade as swing trades can make much more money.
I am familiar with JNUG and feel uncomfortable with other securities beyond the miners. Oh, I use UUP. TIPS, GLD, and SPY to help me sort probabilities. You may want to take a look at: http://bankrobbertrades.blogspot.com/
Ok Goild good strategy. Checking that link out
Dont hold SM over weekend, trump factor will see gold rise over weekend, buy gold.
I was hoping for some follow through to the downside but Gold is hanging on tight while the Miners are still trading under their 10 DMA — interesting times. I’m seeing a lot of divergence but one thing’s for sure.. it’s important to be nimble in these Markets and I agree with Gary that it’s gonna be tricky trading the Metals over the next little while. I’m break-even on JDST.
That being said.. The huge sell-off in the Miners towards end of day is indicative that momentum is still to the downside — trade accordingly.
I agree. Until the miners can close a few months of the 10-month MA, there are trending sectors to trade. Why get chopped up in PM’s when you can trade established trends…
Close over the 10-month moving average that is.
Test
I was out for most of the day but it doesn’t look like I missed much. I did pick up 500 shares of a, XGD (Canadian miner ETF) on a buy stop @11.88 and 1000 of ZJG (Canadian gold juniors)@8.82.I still have my 300 GDX. I know Ped thinks that gold and the miners are ultimately headed down but he has being saying that for several weeks and I don’t agree. Yes, I am disappointed with platinum but I am only down 1.5% on the trade so nothing to panic over. It’s not leveraged. The PM charts look bullish to my eye.
I see Goild made his usual daily several hundred bucks. That man will be rich in no time at that rate ( his brokerage firm must love him). Gary is sticking to his predictions regarding gold, the SM and oil. The sell off of the SM in the final few minutes is interesting in that we are starting to see more of that occurring as opposed to the ramp ups we have seen over the past several years. Maybe that is signalling that something has changed.
Looks like financials are going to give a lift to SM next week.
Hi, Gary. Could you have missed the turn in oils because of your exclusive focus on spx? Weekly engulfing white candle that is apparent in ndx is also visible in the oil complex. May be you are underestimating the strength of the oil bounce before it rolls over along with SM.
Don,
Charting pplt, gld, slv one can see that plat has been the least favorite and gold has sustained best the metals drop. So in part that made me sell the pplt shares I had.
Recall that in this business, often joining the winning crow pays.
I mean the winning crowd,
Goild, you have it wrong, the winning side is never the “crowd”. Over a period of 3 months silver is up 11% gold up 7% platinum 1%. Over a one year period, silver is up 20% gold 2% and platinum is down 1%. Platinum is lagging and I expect it will do better, percentage wise, than silver over the next 6 months. That is why I took profits on silver and put my money on platinum. I bet for bigger profits over a longer term.
Don,
I hear you, and it is a good narrative. Cheers!
Golid aby chance you can post some of your trades here. You can do so after the event just its good to see charts and reasoning to help other posters improve here.
Thanks in advance
LoveLoveLove your handle name eurodisney.
Props!
eurodisney
Yes, I will post some examples later. Please bear with me.
Guys, your thoughts on BTUUQ? is it worth buying it on Monday??
The stock dropped from $3.00 to .62 in two days close. It reminds much to AIG where the reorg plan pushed the stock from .25 to over $40 !!!
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-peabody-energy-bankruptcy-idUSKBN16N2GR
BTUUQ, before it was BTU. They deal with coal which has been out of favor.
The currently candles look like an opportunity to get quick bucks if a bounce takes place.
I would not develop a bad habit here. The odds are against. One would have to time very carefully the bounce and it would be pretty much a one shot trade.
Joining the losers is not OK in this business.
…or in any other business I can think of!