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Time to get on board and stop missing opportunities

Let’s face it, many if not most of you missed the rally in the stock market out of the intermediate cycle low, or if you listened to many mainstream analysts you tried to short the rally and got run over.

Many if not most of you missed the rally in gold, or took profits way too soon, or heaven forbid, you tried to short one of the most explosive rallies in the metals in years. The last 6 years conditioned you to only expect bad things from metals. You couldn’t adapt to a new market environment and it cost you a rare opportunity.

Last year so many traders became frustrated with the metals. Gold wasn’t doing what traders wanted it do do. I tried and tried to keep traders focused as I knew good times were coming. Last year gold was building the fuel for the explosive rally out of the cup and handle this year. Most didn’t understand that. They just knew gold was a terrible investment, and so many gave up on the sector. Many at the exact bottom. Now look what they missed.

We are having one of our best years ever, and it’s because we don’t let our emotions control us, we control our emotions. For most traders it’s the other way around (and why most traders and analysts never make any consistent long term compounding gains). Over the last 3 1/2 years the SMT stock portfolio is up 578% and the metal portfolio is up well over 1000%. We don’t win on every trade, but we do win on a consistent long term basis so that the portfolio’s are growing over time, rather than shrinking or stagnating.

It may be a bit late to jump into stocks and metals now. Face it, your emotions cost you that opportunity and it’s not coming back. Yes both sectors still have further to go, probably a lot further, but both are probably going to have to consolidate or pullback for a bit. Buying now is easy, you expect the trend to just keep going and going. But buying when your emotions give you the all clear is more often than not the wrong strategy. The time to buy is when you are scared. 4 weeks ago everyone was scared of stocks and scared of metals. That’s when we were buying, while the rest of you sat on the sidelines. Now that both of those sectors have had explosive moves the rest of you are finally ready to start buying. Not us. We want to do the opposite of what the rest of you do. Most of you are forever on the wrong side of the market. In order to make money we want to do the opposite of what the majority does.

So while I do expect both stocks and gold have much higher prices coming in the future, neither one of these sectors is where I want to put fresh money. At this point we will just let the positions that we bought 4 weeks ago ride. New money needs to find a sector that’s ready to take off, one where your emotions are nervous, not comfortable. In the weekend report I covered where I think new money should be placed next week. A sector that I think is ready to catch up with the rest of the markets.

The half price offer is now closed.

Dollar collapse

Pre FOMC update

Weekend update

Gold update