$5 for February

I think we are on the cusp of an amazing run in the precious metals markets. The time to get on board is now before the train completely leaves the station.

Starting today I’m going to do a $5 for the rest of February offer. For $5 you will get the nightly reports for the rest of the month and access to all historical reports, COT data & the terminology document.  

At the beginning of March this will convert to a reoccurring 6 month subscription. This should be long enough to get new subscribers through the rest of the C-wave and possibly through the D-wave this summer.

If you decide you don’t want to subscribe for the 6 months just log in to your account, go to the manage subscription page and cancel your subscription any time before the end of the month. Your subscription will stay active till March and then expire without any further billing.

To activate the $5 special offer click on the link below and click on the $5 February offer.

https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/?pagename=Subscribe

I will also reactivate the special 15 month subscription for the next few days. In order to view that option you will need to enter the word smtwebinar in the promotional code box and then click continue.

248 thoughts on “$5 for February

  1. ALEX

    Dear Clive Maund

    Thank you for the bearish post on Gold YESTERDAY πŸ™‚

    http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

    AHHH , Your DOME currently has a Gaping hole in it…what will you use to patch it? follow up bullish post?

    Thx πŸ™‚

    p.s. todays move also changes your rising wedge to a nice up-trending channel ( I wish you wouldn’t jump the gun so much. Let the chart tell you what gold is doing and not visa versa-) or else you’ll continue to give tech analysis a bad name.

  2. Gary

    Unfortunately with the new system I can’t add time to an existing subscription like I could before. The current system would just run one on top of the other.

    If you are on a monthly you can cancel your monthly, email me that you canceled. I will remove your file and then you can resubscribe using the 15 month offer.

    You will lose what ever time you have left on your monthly but you will get three free months on the 15 month offer.

    It’s important you let me know you canceled before trying to resubscribe as I have to remove your file before the system will let you create another subscription.

  3. Shalom Bernanke

    What’s even more scary is if money starts to come of of stocks and head to commodities, of which the ags are looking tired, leaving only metals (and to a degree oil) for funds to flow into.

    yowza!

  4. ddn3f

    Pima,

    You were probably thinking what I was, which was to add to the subscription and lock in the rate all the way into 2017 when the gold bull is over and Gary retires again.

  5. pimaCanyon

    Thanks, Gary.

    No problem re the 15 month sub for existing subs. The annual sub is already such a great deal I’m not even sure why I asked about the 15 month special!

  6. Gary

    Pima,
    Anyone can take advantage of the 15 month, but the only ones it makes sense for are people on a monthly subscription that want to move up.

    It doesn’t make sense to cancel a 6 month or year subscription and lose months of remaining subscription time.

  7. Movax2

    > Movax is this a trick question?

    The way I see it, Gary would have been lucky to get 200 subs at $1000 per year, (or it would take a very long time) but it’s easy to get many more at $200, plus word of mouth from 1000+ happy people and other benefits from a large sub base.

  8. kmisak

    People! Why niggle over three free months’ subscription at, what, 18 bucks a month (?) when your portfolio, if you are putting your money where Gary’s mouth is, is about to go up many many multiples that amount in about 3 seconds on the open market tomorrow?

    Oh, I’ll have no problem ponying up when my sub comes due, even if I don’t get the 20% discount I got last time. πŸ˜€ No worries today and for the rest of this mother of a C-wave!

    Kevin

  9. Razvan

    i am so happy i bought more silver last night…this price action is insane!

    MLMT how is your short silver position doing? keep us updated

  10. Beanie

    I’m just curious, Gary. Where do you think pm’s will be trading at if the SPX gets to 2800? It doesn’t appear you have ever answered the question.

    It also appears you don’t think SPX can get to 2800 based on your last post. The only bull market you see is in precious metals. But I see a continued bull market since 1990, when the Dow Jones was at 2000. And in 1980 the Dow Jones was at 1000. So it’s been a 6 bagger or 12 bagger depending on where one sees as the start of the secular bull market. Why all the doom and gloom on Mr. Market? Gold certainly isn’t the only bull market out there.

  11. kmisak

    It will be intresting to see what happens to the OTHER AGQ tomorrow in Toronto (Arian Silver). They came out with news today – most economical silver width yet in drilling – and is currently up 8.5%in London. Funny, I was going to cash it out for HZU (the CDN equivalent for NYSE:AGQ), but I think I’ll sit on it. Gary said himself that some juniors will go up hundreds of percentages, so if even one of G. Panther, Silvermex, Arian, Wildcat, Revett, or Stroud do it, I’ll be pretty happy…

    Kevin

  12. Razvan

    guys we have serious resistance at $35 on silver. There is a confluence of fibonacci projections just under $35 plus we have the psychological barrier.

    Anybody else watching price targets?

  13. Glen

    Gary mentions “logging into your account and clicking on the subscription menu.”

    I don’t see a “subscription menu” or any other way to manage my subscription. All I see is Dashboard and Profile.

    Am I missing something?

  14. wingman

    Gary,

    Honestly, I wouldn’t take a discount even if I could. Your analysis, along with your daily patience and coaching, is a steal at $200/yr. Raise the price and I wouldn’t bat and eye at paying.

  15. Gary

    Glen,

    Only people that have created a new subscription in the new website will be able to see the manage subscription area.

    Those that are still on the conversion form Jan. where I just manually created your account in the new system won’t have that option.

  16. Gary

    Beanie,
    For some reason you just refuse to “get it” The stock market is not in a secular bull market. No matter how many times you insist that it is it still doesn’t make it true.

    We’ve had 10 years of stocks going nowhere and in inflation adjusted terms they’ve lost a big chunk of their purchasing power. 10 years with 2 recessions, one of which was the worst since the Great Depression. We now have our first lost decade. Just like Japan.

    Unless human nature has changed in the last 100 years (it hasn’t) then the stock market will continue this process of intermittent cyclical bull and bear markets until the stock market returns to extreme undervaluation.

    No secular bull market can, or ever has started until that level of undervaluation was reached. This time will be no different than any other time in history.

    Ultimately we will see a Dow:gold ratio of 1:1. That will be the time to sell precious metals and buy stocks.

  17. Silverman

    Gary,

    Mama said…

    “Hedging is an issue for those (like me) who own miners as well as vehicles like AGQ etc. I wouldn’t want to be invested in any company shorting the product it produces.”

    I too am concerned with what Trader Dan wrote on his sight re: producers (especially jr miners) shorting/hedging silver.

    Is this something we need to worry about?

  18. Beanie

    Gary,

    Again you’ve eluded the question for the nth time.

    What will happen to precious metals if the SPX gets to 2800?

    I don’t question the gold rally that started in early 2000 and I kinda get it why it rallied, because it was a fear trade based on the Fed printing money. I think gold can even get to 2000-3000 by the end of the decade (coinciding with what I believe will be the end of the 20-30 secular bull in the stock market). But meanwhile, for the next 5-10 years, I see the Dow heading to 36,000 ultimately.

    The question still is:

    What do you think will happen to precious metals if the SPX gets to 2800?

  19. Gary

    Beanie,
    The only way the S&P can get to 2800 in the middle of a secular bear market is for the FED to continue to debase the dollar.

    They’ve already wrecked it by almost 40% of it’s 20000 value and even that isn’t enough to pump the stock market back to the 2000 highs.

    So for the S&P to get to 2800 it would take such a massive debasement of the currency that gold would almost surely be over $7,000 to $10,000.

  20. DG

    Gary: It’s incredibly kind of you to offer your insights at $5 for the rest of the month. Sometimes it’s not just about money, it’s about helping others in a big way. What difference would an extra b$100 from a bunch of subscribers mean to you. Nothing. Whereas if you can get more people to sign up you might really change their lives (financial lives at the least). I’m always amazed by the other end of the spectrum: the guys with $100 million who cheat or steal and go to jail. $100 million is not enough? I guess not, as they ruin their lives and destroy their families to get more. At a certain point it’s about giving back with gratitude. For me, I have more respect for you for trying to help people who sure the hell are going to need it, than for all the integrity and self-control you have shown throughout your website. Hats off to you!

  21. Lillie

    I can’t track any of todays movement on e-trade or TOS. Can someone tell me where I can see what’s happening with AGQ, SLW etc.?

  22. Vonda

    Gary, you’re going to get so many burritos gifted you this spring, you’re going to be too heavy to climb!

    Hats off to you indeed!

  23. Gary

    L,
    The market isn’t open today.

    Silver,
    I’m not invested in any individual miners other than SLW. So no I’m not worried about hedging crimping profit margins.

  24. David Kafrick

    It is very rare for me to get nervous about a trade that is going my way, but this move in silver since last week certainly qualifies as nervewrecking, at least for me.

  25. Glen

    I don’t understand why there is so much concern about producers (miners) hedging their production.

    The mining companies are primarily in the business of production, not speculation.

    So, producers transfer risk to speculators by shorting what they produce. That is the main purpose of the futures markets.

  26. DG

    Man, what is going on in silver? Another 4% today??! And we haven’t even gotten Joe Public talking about the PM’s yet. Amazing. Thiss is going to be some blow-off.

    Gary: The recent cover of the economist was about 3D printers, where they scan something and replicate it by molding various dusts into the real thing. They just made an outstanding violin this way by scanning a Stradivarius. Real sci-fi/Star Trek stuff. Now if they learn to add taste I’ll buy you one, stuff a burrito in there, and you can be set for life.

  27. Razvan

    i am taking some profits when we get to $35 due to strong resistance there and the fact that we have been outside the daily bollinger for 3 days now. I dont want to loose what i have made so far!

  28. Gary

    Rav,
    What will you do if you take profits and then all the chasers panic in and silver goes to $36 or $37 tomorrow?

    We are still at least a couple of months from the end of the C-wave. What’s the point of taking profits here unless you think you will be good enough to catch the bottom of the next dip?

    Better to just let the dip happen and then add exposure into it.

  29. Jayhawk

    Thanks SB. I’ve got a huge chunk of SVM. Do you know if AG & AXU hedge too? It would be interesting to chart out those silvers that hedge (I’m assuming the bigger ones HL, SSRI, PAAS, CDE) vs those that do not-SVM, GPL, etc.

  30. Lillie

    Gary,

    Thanks but…duh

    There have been a few posts talking about action in individual stocks this morning..assumed they must be trading on foreign exchanges?

  31. Razvan

    Gary you know very well about the rubber band effect and we cant be trading outside the daily bolinger for much longer. Nothing goes straight up and i at least want to take some profit especially for what i bought last night (for example)

  32. Silverman

    SB,

    Much appreciated. I bought a decent amount of SVM a few weeks back based on your posts. Happy to hear that they don’t hedge.

    Thanks again!

    HiHo Silver! (for those of you old enough to understand the reference πŸ™‚

  33. mamaloshen

    Gary and all,

    Curious about AGQ’s performance vs the miners, I ran comparison charts earlier of about a dozen senior and junior silver miners vs. AGQ over 12-month, 6-month and 3-month timeframes.

    Except for PZG (Paramount Gold & Silver), all underperformed AGQ. Worst performer was SSRI. SLW also outperformed SIL in all time-frames which surprised me a little.

    So it confirms what you’ve said about AGQ outperforming all but a small number of miners. (Personally, I don’t see much point in owning SIL if SLW consistently outperforms it.)

  34. Shalom Bernanke

    On hedging:

    “Bankers say large-scale hedging remains some way off for miners who produce gold and silver as their main product (called “primary producers”) such as Barrick Gold, AngloGold and Newmont in gold and Fresnillo, Pan American Silver and Hochschild in silver.

    The reason? Shareholders remain resolutely opposed, burnt by years of bitter experience in which mining equities underperformed gold and silver prices because of bad hedging.”

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/af6a0ca8-386c-11e0-959c-00144feabdc0,s01=1.html#axzz1Ec8Qx24O

  35. Gary

    Nike,
    Silver just broke out of the last consolidation three days ago. How can that be parabolic?

    This momentum move is just starting.

    Rav.
    The Bollinger band crash trade doesn’t work on the upside. Markets go up differently than they go down.

  36. Jayhawk

    There’s also the thought that those sitting on their hands or try and chase will go after the silver miners as they have not run away yet. Silver up big over the holiday weekend will have many looking to get a piece of the action Tuesday.

  37. DG

    Mam: There is more risk with SLW (which i also own). SLW is just a single company with an admittedly great business model, but you still have single equity risk there…

  38. dallascfp

    @ Razvan,

    I think we have all been in this situation where we want to take a profit and run away with it and end up with BTFD (Buy the failed dip). Right now it is not about TA, it is about a trend. I have been doing this for so long (and losing money) until I subscribed for this site back in December. Gary’s advices have taught me so much and this is the first time I have actually lusted the profit but did not do anything but to buy on any dips. Hope this helps, rest is your choice.

  39. n1tro

    Raz,

    Posted this in prior thread but silver options expire on the 23rd. Futures expire on the 28th. So if you are waiting for the ball busting short squeeze, at least wait until after those dates and see where silver is at. The squeeze may shoot silver past $35/ounce.

  40. Slumdog

    Avann: “
    Come on! Seriously … are we gonna see $34 today?”

    Is 33.99 good enough? Seriously.

    I’m flat here. I quit for a while.

    I’ll give up sleep and live on speed if I can experience party after party like the one last night and this morning.

    Avann, where’s it going now, as in now?

  41. vuvvy

    For everyone concerned about the markets being closed and only Globex/Asia trading thinly, the LBMA which is the largest physical gold market just had it’s afternoon fix at the highs.

  42. Gary

    Here’s the problem with selling early expecting to get in lower.

    When a dip happens you are afraid to buy the first day expecting more. If it doesn’t come then you end up chasing again.

    We got a front row seat to what happens during dips last week. Silver pulled back, everyone froze, and then it took of never to look back again. If you froze last week don’t kid yourself, you are going to freeze again.

  43. Razvan

    thanks for the chart AAron, it is quite persuasive!

    i just dont want to get creamed at the top like last years spike around november.

  44. Gary

    Remember folks you have to trade in real time.

    To think you will be good enough and lucky enough to exit and re-enter with perfect timing in a powerful momentum move probably isn’t going to happen in real time.

  45. Slumdog

    Nike Boy2008 said…

    Gary,

    This move is already looking parabolic…and kindaa scary..”

    NB208, imo, this is an early parabolic. It can and to balance it, it should stretch. Look at parabolas; the vertical line is much more extended.

    The backside of this parabola, now, will be painful. The backside of the next parabola, or this one extended, the D wave, will be like jumping from the WTC without a parachute.

    Mind your stops.

  46. mamaloshen

    DG,

    I agree, there is company specific risk. On the other hand, an ETF like SIL is spread over many companies as well as having fairly hefty management fees, so there is a tendency to underperform, all things being equal. I own some SIL and happy with it but just making the observation. I’ve noticed that MOO underperforms also as opposed to a pure agricultural play.

    I also own some juniors and just enjoy trying to pick winners, but whether they’ll outperform SIL in the end I’ve no idea.

  47. David Kafrick

    Just some advice for those who might be feeling anxious with this move in silver (myself included):

    1- Do not look at your account balance on a daily basis. I haven´t looked at mine for 10 days.

    2- Close your eyes and try to visualize silver going through a nasty daily correction. Really try to visualize it dropping like a rock, see a nasty red candle on the daily chart. Try to anticipate these feelings of anxiety, because when they come you will be prepared and will not freak out or lose perspective. There will be some nasty days on the way up, so the best that you can do is to visualize these things so that you are prepared to deal with it when it happens.

    This is what I do on a day like today, it definitely helps me.

  48. Gold Lion

    SB, you said..

    “What’s even more scary is if money starts to come of of stocks and head to commodities, of which the ags are looking tired, leaving only metals (and to a degree oil) for funds to flow into.

    Great point!!!

    …I went to the Silver and Miners show in Phoenix this weekend and one of the speakers was talking about if/when money starts coming out of the bond market it will be HUGE for the metals as the bond market is 70 times bigger than the stock market. That show was so awesome. Next year I am going for both days.

  49. Ryan

    Gary,

    What a great weekend post, it felt like you were talking directly at me. I’m definitely kicking myself for not listening to you and not adding to strength last week when I had the chance. I was hoping for a pullback to add but I don’t think that’s happening anytime with the action in NYMEX action. I will have to reread what you wrote on the weekend post and see if I can add into strength or maybe wait for you to see if you’re going to add more exposure.

  50. Tudor

    Lillie (and everybody else), although the U.S. markets are closed today, many of the miners are trading on the Canadian exchanges, which are open. At Yahoo Finance type in the NAME of the company and it will list the tickers for the various exchanges. For instance, SLW trades on the Toronto exchange. You can check it in Yahoo with SLW.TO. Note that there might be slight discrepencies in pricing, but it will give you an idea what’s happening.

    Right now:

    SLW.TO: 38.68 (Yeah!)
    SVM.TO: 12.90
    SSO.TO: 25.87 (Silver Standard)
    GPR.TO: 3.02 (Great Panther)

    I’m sure you get the idea. You can do the same thing in TOS.

  51. Avann

    Although it’s not a National (Federal) holiday in Canada … it is a provincial holiday so the Toronto Exchange is closed. The prices Tudor quoted are Friday’s close.

  52. fat boy

    I think Gary needs burrito and gas money for the car to go climbing
    He probably has the rest in PM’s

    I’m at
    AGQ 53%
    SIL 19%
    SLW 15%
    GDXJ 10%
    juniors 3%

    invested 115%

    trying to keep up last purchase
    February AGQ 146$ and SLW 35$

    so managed around only 3% to date this year following Gary as got caught whipsawed But thats because I can’t jump when Gary says straight away as I also have to go to work

    last year with Gary realized 30%

    Does not include the jump in silver we are witnessing on kitco 33.75 wow will that hold till tomorrow

  53. Tudor

    Avann,

    Somofabitch! Right you are! I didn’t check the last trade date and wasn’t watching that closely on Friday. Sorry gang.

    I owe Lillie a burrito.

  54. ALEX

    SB

    Thanks for digging into the hedge subject. Seems quite a few were wondering about that subject , and your diligence and sharing it is appreciated. The companies that I am invested in are reporting great quarter over quarter and yr over yr gains and increase in profits.This final leg of the C-wave will reflect that I.M.H.O.

    N1Tro

    I hear you, and congrats to you! Nice trade!

    I’ve been 100% in since Jan 25th…

    -I just wish it would pull back ‘a bit’ overnight ( so tomorrows potential buyers do not dare to jump right in , less gaps on the stocks) and repeat the same action tomorrow πŸ™‚

    I mean, it looks like $35 silver tomorrow at this rate!

    Going skiing..cya all tomorrow!

  55. Slumdog

    I know these don’t mean anything to most, but there’s a NYPit gap from 1392 to 1400 on spot gold.

    Remember that on the way down. A probable target area. This is the 2nd gap, so it would be the exhaustion gap. 1-3 days is typical.

    The monthly setup continues in gold, 4 trading days left to go.

    This hesitance to advance can have powerful meaning if the setup materializes.

  56. Bob loves Hawaii

    Beanie, Roosevelt was able to confiscate gold as he controlled congress. No way it will happen now, and not with the natives as restless as they are around the world.

    gold would spike on that news, not fall.

    You are a hard person to take seriously.

  57. DG

    To all: Don’t let Beanie get his ideas in your head. The gov’t has no reason at all to confiscate PM’s. They did it before because they had to to devalue as we were on the gold standard. Wh simply aren’t any more, so that’s that. There are always some people who are bullish and some people who are bearish. But Gary has been right about the big picture since day one. Why trust what some random guy writes? MLMT has undoubtedly cost people money warning of a gold collapse as well. The most important thing about an advisor is his track record. Either of them may be right some day, but until that day (and a series of them after) that, you are MUCH better off trusting Gary. With a stop at HUI 518 you need not worry about a “collapse” as you’d be out in 10%, and that with a chance of making 100%. Don’t take small profits! They make your ego feel good but do nothing at all for your financial future. Anyway, my thoughts at this point…

  58. Beanie

    Bob,

    So you think it’s a no brainer? Easy money in gold and silver? 100% pile driving portfolios into pm’s without any regard to the slightest of asset allocation prudence. Even better yet, forget gold, we love silver. 100% silver. 150% silver.

    I’m sure Tulipmania participants could relate, if they’re still alive today.

  59. David

    There is a whiff of desperation in Beanie’s posts.

    He seems to flail from one nonsensical argument to the other, as if desperately trying to scare someone, anyone, out of their wildly profitable PM positions.

    “The government’s gonna confiscate gold!”

    I *wish* the government would confiscate gold. In the 21st century, capital is mobile. You can buy gold anywhere on earth with a click of a mouse. If the government banned trading of gold in the US and pulled all the gold in the US off the market, it would create instant scarcity and drive every hedge fund to Canada, Switzerland, etc. You would see the gold price double overnight. Our PM stocks would quadruple instantly. Of course, the government could always confiscate stocks….

    I find the psychology of the troll fascinating. I think Beanie truly believes that he can single-handedly take down the gold market simply by shouting silly ideas on a gold investors’ blog. Does he think that somehow this is going to make his stock portfolio go higher? Does his desperation come from the fact that he can see he’s missing a huge bull market? We could wake up tomorrow to see AGQ up 8%. Is that what’s making Beanie so upset?

  60. mamaloshen

    Just a point about confiscation. Gold is traded internationally nowadays. An investor can move money and buy gold in Zurich or London at the flick of a switch. Confiscation will not work.

    Most gold is in ETF’s anyway. Will they shut down GLD, SLV etc?

    What I think we may see, though, is more taxes. Taxing collectibles at a short-term capital gains rate, and recent talk in Congress about gross profits taxes on miners could happen as it has in Australia (maybe a reason not to be overweight miners vs ETF’s later in this bull market).

  61. Peter

    Tulips in the 16th century, Silver & Gold in the 80s, Nasdaq in 2000, Housing in 06, Dow in 06 .. these were all good opportunities , until they werent. Loads of people here who have no business giving advice who give it .. MLMT calling tops monthly, like TZ did in Sept , Oct and Nov 2010. Of course, now apparently some are working harder, so their opinions, and proprietary trading “platforms” are better now.

    My thoughts are, If any of you need someone’s opinion, I would suggest you dish out your 5$, and get it from the one guy here who has a clue.

  62. fubsy_cooter

    You know what is beautiful about this move, at least in my opinion….90% of those who were holding last week (Paper silver, not physical), have likely traded out of positions to take profits and wait for a drop. One thing I have learned from Gary (and Jesse Livermore), is to sit tight and stay on the bull!! It will be driven by those who take profits and then get nauseous as the bull runs without them. Eventually, they will buy back in a panic.

    Not taking profits too soon allowed me to experience gains like I never have in the last leg up. Its fun.

  63. Aaron

    Seriously? Confiscation? Any more fear mongering tactics?
    Just agreeing to debate confiscation is silly, let alone considering it.

  64. Beanie

    robert,

    Shalom statement is very telling:

    “Lots of people got rich during tulipmania, and it was the best long trade at the time, so what’s your point?”

    Nobody really knows what gold and silver is worth but there are people out there trying to create a bubble so they can leave the back door, giving the bags to the late suckers. It’s not because most believe the end of American civilization (the destruction of the US dollar) is here. After all, when you sell your GLD or SLV, they all get converted back to “worthless devalued US dollars” in one’s brokerage account.

    I don’t understand how can anyone or any group of people can say so straight-faced what our precious metals are really worth and that they have much higher to go, like gold to $10,000. (Well, I can understand that because when I was young I used to collect comic books. It’s because the guys selling the comics want you to pay a lot more for perceived rare copies.)

    When I say Dow 36,000, I kinda have a basis for that call because I see the importance of alternative energy and its economic impact. The impact will be tremendous. Currently, the oil industry gets nearly estimated $1.9 trillion in subsidies every year. If our government can save that much every year, and our companies and consumers benefit from cheaper energy, there is no telling how much properity Americans will have. All the car manufacturers are gearing up for electric vehicles introduction in 2012. Everybody who has ever driven an electric car loves it. Many folks will buy it as long as there are enough places to recharge their batteries. That’s just a matter of logistics. But the green energy revolution has begun.

  65. Beanie

    David,

    Just for the record. Even though I didn’t see the 2008 real estate fraud that ultimately resulted in a crash of epic proportions. I eventually did call for the absolute bottom, though I was wrong about maybe two early bottom calls in 2008, in April 2009.

    At that time I was visiting the Atilladons blog and told them to cover and stop shorting, they kept on shorting in May all the way to the end of the year. It was brutal to watch. But as they were shorting, they pretty much brutalize me as well when I said the market would continue higher.

    Then I went to the SkiSlopers in late 2009 to maybe mid 2010 and I said to not short anymore because we are no longer in a bear market and in fact in a bull market. At that time, the Dow was around 9000 and I said we would slice thru Dow 10,000 like knife thru butter. They said in the unlikelihood the Dow ever gets to near 10,000 they will short will all their might. And they kept shorting and it was brutal to watch. And of course, they cursed me as well and everyone calling me a bulltard. And sure enough, the Dow did slice thru 10,000 like knife on butter.

    And now I’m here. Saying the pm’s rally don’t make much sense in terms of valuation. And that pm’s probably will trade sideways or lower till the end of this decade. And that SPX will hit 2800 and Dow will hit 36,000. And that I don’t see gold and silver trading hand in hand with the stock market, and that one of them has to give and it will be gold and silver. And I get bombarded with insults again.

    I like my chances of being right about this mega bull market in equities. πŸ™‚

  66. robert

    “After all, when you sell your GLD or SLV, they all get converted back to “worthless devalued US dollars” in one’s brokerage account.”

    as does the sale of stock

    “I don’t understand how can anyone or any group of people can say so straight-faced what our precious metals are really worth”

    or what the worth of anything is- including stock

    “All the car manufacturers are gearing up for electric vehicles introduction in 2012.

    invest in coal companies . . .because that is where the energy is coming from to charge the batteries-

    nice clean coal- LOL

  67. David Kafrick

    Beanie,

    Saying that no one knows the true value of gold makes no sense. There is no such thing as true value. Apple has no true value, neither does any other company or any other asset.

  68. David

    You are being bombarded with insults because you keep saying the same thing over and over again. It’s tiresome.

    There is nothing wrong with being bullish on stocks. Plenty of smart people are right now. I disagree with them, but I respect their position.

    It’s another thing to wag your finger incessantly at people in a condescending fashion. I happen to think Tim Knight is a tragic case, but I have no personal need to go on his blog and berate him. The fact that you do suggests a psychological need on your part that has nothing to do with making money.

    You are bullish on stocks. Fine. You are bearish on metals. Also fine. We don’t need to hear it 500 times a day.

  69. dallascfp

    Beanie is either a JPM Monkey or is short Silver at around 30ish.

    If you are not listening to the guy who owns this blog, why come here in the first place.

  70. basil

    Beanie,

    I remember you suggested that solar was the place to be in late spring / early summer of 09. Your top pic was STP. It was at around 7$ at that time. It now is just above 10$. It has performed worse than the S&P, but it has performed a lot worse than silver. Your call in 09 should have been PMs not solar. Also, to call a bottom three times a year as you say you did, that’s not really a bottom call. There were a lot of losses in between these calls.

  71. basil

    Btw, I bought STP two weeks ago, because it has broken out of its downward trend, which started in 2008 just now, and it seems to be at a good price point now.

  72. makutaku

    Beanie is an abandoned pet who found shelter in this blog where posters give him attention and food.

    It’s true: zoom in his picture!

    It’s both amusing watching him bark and annoying skipping over his poops as PM prices inch higher.

  73. basil

    Gary,

    where do you believe gold and silver will be at the end of the entire bull market?

    For gold…

    Rosenburg says 3,000
    Paulson says 4,000
    Turk says 8,000
    Schiff says 10,000
    Maloney says 15,000

    hm…

  74. Gold Lion

    Bob loves Hawaii, you said
    “Can you imagine the short covering rallies in metals and oil tomorrow? Some people lost everything this weekend.”

    Did you actually hear some people lost everything or are you just speculating? Just wondering..

  75. Slumdog

    robert: Beano: “I’m sure Tulipmania participants could relate, if they’re still alive today.”

    so . . .what are you saying exactly?”

    tulips and people turned back into pottery clay, so they’re earth friendly, but gold is not. the gold is still around, and if anyone owns a fork or 2 from that time period, made out of gold or silver, well, that would be worth a lot of money. I think that’s the message.

  76. n1tro

    yeah gary was saying $200 or $250 silver if my memory is correct. But if the silver to gold ratio goes back to the way they were ie. 16:1, that would make silver $300+.

  77. Slumdog

    Poly said…

    All the boys already “getting drunk” on these moves, hope they’re all prepared for $2.50 + day swings.

    Poly, back to back 3% moves are exceedingly rare. They occur in squeezes. They don’t occur in panics. But once there’s one, the odds of another one within 15 days, possibly in the opposite direction, are around 80%.

  78. Gary

    I think it’s probably unlikely at this point that gold will dip down into the next daily cycle low until it tests the high at $1430.

    I would expect silver to continue to lead until then.

  79. Gary

    I also think it’s unlikely gold will put in an short term top until the dollar forms a temporary bottom. I expect it to break below the November low before that happens.

  80. dallascfp

    @ Slumdog – We are still waiting for the S&P to do what it is supposed to “80% of the times” for the past 12 weeks.

    Gaining 12%, for example, and losing 3% is called correction, which is healthy for the market.

  81. mamaloshen

    Not asking you to make a specific prediction, Gary, but do you think gold, rather than testing the highs, might break through $1431 on the first attempt?

    It’s less than 2% away.

  82. Gary

    Mam,
    Easily if the dollar keeps collapsing.

    I certainly don’t suggest anyone lose their position because they expect a daily cycle low. The odds of catching the top and bottom of that cycle are pretty small and not worth getting left behind if you screw it up.

    Just use a correction IF it comes to add exposure.

  83. Poly

    By no means suggesting a drop and I’m certainly not budging. But the swings wont be reserved just for the daily cycle bottoms.
    Just the talk here is already getting very speculative and complacent.

  84. pimaCanyon

    What is with Beano? Is it that he can’t stand to see others making money in the markets, so he has to post irrelevant crap hoping to create fear in the minds of the readers? Nice. (Although I believe some would call that sadistic, no?)

    Or is it just that his life is so boring he has nothing better to do than to attempt to be an irritant on this blog? Nice. (although I believe some would call that sadistic, no?)

  85. pimaCanyon

    slum,

    looking at the daily on CL, it hit (pierced actually, then pulled back) the top of the channel drawn off the August 25 low. Seems very likely a pullback will occur here.

    I’m not sure I see the triangle you’re referring to though.

  86. Slumdog

    PC 94.49-93.12 is the first bar in the 5 min. Each next bar, a total of three, is an inside bar to the prior bar. That’s a dynamite triangle.

    It formed yet again another inside par, tighter, thereby making this one not perfect.

    Watch for them and watch how they form afterwards. They’re explosive if the setup is clean. This is not. It’s a time window after the event and the immediacy of the direction which then have relatively high probability rules associated with that formation.

    In this case, tagging at or below 93.12 would have given it a kick start. But now, we’re in limbo.

    Entry one side or the other, when it breaks above the first bar, if done cleanly and quickly, yields a probability.

  87. Wes

    DG,

    I don’t know if you still care, but in the “dogs that haven’t barked yet” for the stock market, the 15dma of the OEX P/C open interest has finally reached bearish levels.

    This is the first time since 2007 that this indicator has shown a bearish reading. I suspect that most of the OEX bearish P/C’s that we saw earlier were day trades, as they certainly weren’t taking those puts home with them. Now they are.

  88. Gary

    Well we know what the range is in the current runaway move (about 30 points).

    The strategy is to buy whenever a pullback reaches 25-30 points.

    The corrections do tend to be quick and vicious in runaway moves. They have to be to scare people enough to keep the move going.

  89. Steven

    I can’t remember where everything was on Friday. Does anyone know where the silver futures were when the market closed at 4:00?

    Alternatively, where would AGQ be with the silver futures at $34?

    Thanks to anyone who answers.

  90. Steven

    Thanks Poly. But was that the futures price at the close of the futures electronic session at 5:15 or at the close of the stock market at 4:00. I ask because I think it moved up a fair amount after the stock market closed.

  91. Poly

    That’s the NY Globex closing price.

    AGQ was up another $1 after hours Fri, so could estimate $187.50 on AGQ.

    That baby sure does rock.

  92. Gary

    If silver is at $34.20 (where it’s at now)in the morning, AGQ should open at $188.29.

    It may open a little above that though because the ultra fund tends to outperform a little bit in a strong uptrend.

  93. Poly

    That’s right, my quote was on Silver $34. Nice jump.

    Interesting to see PM’s reaction tomorrow with such strength. Looks like a very sharp decline in equities.

  94. basil

    Gary,

    whenever this C wave will peak we’ll sell ideally.

    The D wave move down is usually steep and quick. Within the first 8 weeks or so of the D wave it is likely that the bottom will be hit that will also constitute round about the lowest area the entire correction will hit. It might bounce up and down a few times, but usually it won’t go down too much further.

    My question is, would you consider going back into AGQ at that point again and just hold it and wait for the price to go up again? Will AGQ like many double ETFs suffer more downward pressure in a sideways market and loose instead of staying steady in a sideways market? Will you just sit in cash? Or will you invest in another vehicle?

    Thanks.

    Thanks

    Basil

  95. DG

    Wes. Thanks. I am always interested, but everything that has been reliable for me has been wrong at calling a top. I like your idea of “dogs that haven’t barked yet” but I am persuaded by Gary’s notion of the dollar calling the tune, so will wait except for selected items (I shorted some FXI Friday and was “warned” not to by someone. I suspect I’ll make it through at least Tuesday πŸ™‚ When I get out of PM’s I will be looking for something to do, and if that is at the dollar bottom I will shorts stocks. In size. Maybe I can be of some help to others here because at that time it will be “welcome to my world.”

  96. jennifer

    A friendly note…..
    How would anyone here feel if this event just took place and they didn’t have full positions? The little wiggle scare that some had, could have lost many here quite a handful(selling back to minimum core)…For those that have full positions, the “wow” moment will come when we open huge tomorrow. But imagine having just lost your position, and now are chasing….You get yourself sick, and you leave the bull forever. Worse imagine, you chase tomorrow, and get caught in an immediate drawdown. You puke and leave some entertaining remarks.
    If one is convinced that they can get a better price, they better be really really really sure.
    Food for thought…

  97. Gary

    D-waves don’t spawn sideways moves. The spawn violent A-wave rallies.

    It’s all about action and reaction.

    D-waves are severe regression to the mean events triggered by the final parabolic C-wave advance.

    Of course as we know human nature never returns to the mean. It fluctuates far on either side of the mean. The D-wave will drop proportionally as far as the C-wave rose. Aka the more parabolic the move the harder the D-wave will crash.

    But that sets up the next violent rally (the A-wave).

    To answer your question though you better believe I will be back in AGQ for the A-wave.

    This is the year when we can potentially make 200-300% if played correctly.

  98. MLMT

    Surprised to find me ???

    Expected me to be hiding.

    Nope. No way.

    As a reminder, I shorted GDX and SLV via puts. Silver was shorted via puts (for a reason – which you see now) and not via futures.

    75% gold short position with average of 1396 – had to do some position management along the way.

  99. Poly

    I don’t see the reason, what is it? Futures would have given you some outs, but the gap down on those SLV puts will be at least 25% tomorrow. I would cover first thing.

  100. Gary

    I’ve seen this during every C-wave. There will be a never ending list of people trying to call the top all the way up. They will all lose huge because they all make the same amateur mistake of trying to short a bull market.

    Let me say this again. Never, never, never, never short a bull market. The surprises come on the upside and even if you win every once in a while you will lose way more often and all you will succeed in doing in the long run is to whittling away at your account.

    If you think a correction is due then go to cash and buy the dip.

    Following that one very simple rule will save you immeasurable amounts of money over the life of your trading career.

    Unfortunately few retail traders have the willpower to resist the temptation of trying to call a top.

  101. Gary

    Yes we will. But we certainly won’t do it on the fourth week of an intermediate cycle that hasn’t even made new highs yet.

    And definitely not before the dollar has a chance to drop down into its final three year cycle low.

  102. Gary

    It hasn’t even made a swing low yet.

    I doubt the current daily dollar cycle will bottom before taking out the November low.

  103. fat boy

    i like to see people like beanie on the blog
    its more worrying when everyone is not focusing on different opinions
    I only have experience investing since february 2007 – so as you all can imagine entering then — ouch —–
    then it was conventional tracker funds and dodge and cox and vanguard market trackers — 2008 -09 ouch handed a 60% draw down
    so went with gary in May 2009
    my portoflio is at 25% gain per annum 2007 – 2011 only because Gary and PM’s dragged my ass out of the dirt plus had more cash to invest 09-10
    as long as we get a few hard stops in place nearish the top I don’t mind
    great blog and respect to all who make calls backed up with theory and research
    miss dollar guy though from last year…..and gary the brit – lets keep beanie

  104. Gary

    LOL gold hasn’t even retraced 1/3 of today’s move.

    We may get another buying opportunity tomorrow. The question is will you freeze again or will you take advantage of it this time.

  105. DG

    Gary: re freezing: There are two different things going on. One is freezing because you do not know the final IT bottom is in. That was the position we were in a week or two ago. The second case is failing to add after you have a nice profit and after the bottom is clearly in. That’s unacceptable. Waiting for confirmation is not freezing, it”s risk management (at least IMO). For myself, I can assure you I will be adding on any dip. A drawdown is now irrelevant having a nice large profit. This is a chance to make a pile with very limited risk. Bring the dip on!

  106. DG

    MLMT: I for one am glad you are not hiding under a rock. The criticism people have leveled against you is not about calling for lower metals prices. No need to hide. ;let’s see if you are right (though your call has changed a few times and i am not sure what it is now other than a short-term correction which most of us here would welcome).

    SB (and others): Let me know when you add.

  107. Gary

    Silver hasn’t even retraced half of today’s gain.

    The question is still whether one will use a pullback to add or will they let the opportunity pass them by again?

  108. Avann

    If silver open anywhere below 33.50 … I will absolutely add some … I added last week during the dip and I will do the same again. Like DG says … it’s very easy to add when you already have a nice cushion …

  109. Gary

    Jeff,
    I don’t waste time with intraday charts. The PM markets are too volatile for those to have any meaning.

    After the kind of powerful breakout we’ve just seen I would expect a bull flag to form over several days.

  110. james r

    Gary,

    After our correction from this final C-wave, I am not so sure that silver will outperform gold.

    If what you say is true, that we will have a currency crisis and “real” inflation rears it ugly head do you not think gold will finally take center stage?

    James

  111. james r

    Usually after huge corrections something fundamentally changes.

    I will closely monitor the performance between gold/silver to see where the market is heading.

    James

  112. David

    Gold tends to outperform in the first part of the cycle and silver in the second half. Silver also outperforms in economic expansions. So if we’re headed into another recession after the C-wave, I would expect gold to outperform in late 2011-early 2012.

  113. David

    James,

    I will still be buying silver juniors at the end of the B-wave because silver will outperform over the long run.

    I am curious about one thing, though, Gary: you say you never short bull markets, but you also say you shorted drillers in 2008. Oil, like all commodities, was in a secular bull at the time, and still is. It seems you violated your own rule here… No? πŸ˜‰

  114. Gary

    I was convinced the second leg down in the secular bear market had begun. Inflation had surged to the point where it had crushed discretionary spending. Energy stocks, especially coal and drillers were terribly stretched above the mean and the leading coal stocks had just broken badly.

    Seemed like the perfect time to sell short to me. I expect to see something similar in the tech sector this time. It’s already very stretched.

  115. David

    I understand the logic of selling short — I was long FXP (short China) at the time, which paid off nicely. And you could have shorted anything at all and done well in 2008.

    But energy was in a secular bull at the time. You could have shorted something that was in a secular bear.

    I ask because it is going to be verrry tempting to short silver or pm stocks at the top of the c-wave. They will be 100% above the mean at that point, and we should see them get cut in half.

    I know, I know… Never never never. But it seems you did it in 2008 with energy.

  116. Gary

    James r,
    There might be a time when gold will hold it’s own but I doubt gold will significant outperform silver other than it should hold up better in a D-wave decline.

    We will not be in the market during a D-wave anyway so it would be kind of meaningless at that point as to which one outperforms.

    If silver gets really crushed hard during the D-wave then I would expect the snapback to be much more violent than gold during the A-wave.

  117. Gary

    Oh I seriously doubt we will see the PM stocks cut in half. Maybe 25 to 30% but we will probably see the same thing happen in tech.

    And I would say that oil is no longer in a secular bull market. The fundamentals are impaired now. The world will go through a series of on again off again recessions that will permanently affect the demand side of the energy market.

    It’s why oil isn’t even close to making new highs.

    Despite all the peak oil nonsense the fact remains that the leaders of the last bull market never lead the next one. We are seeing this play out in the energy sector.

    And as usually investors continue to flock to what treated them so well during the last bull despite the fact that it is badly underperforming.

    Human nature never changes πŸ™‚

  118. David

    If we can expect silver to revert to its 200 dma in a d-wave, then silver should get cut in half. The silver stocks should get hit even worse. Keep in mind that SLW lost 30% during this last intermediate correction. Its hard to imagine that a D wave won’t be a greater decline than an it correction.

  119. Gary

    If SLW gets really stretched above the mean it might correct 40-50%, although I doubt it. Usually in a bull market the 200 DMA will halt declines.

    But I’m talking the mining index. During the last decline the HUI lost 18%.

    If we were to see the HUI stretched 60% above the 200 DMA then it could possibly correct 30-40%.

  120. jeff

    gary

    We will not be in the market during a D-wave anyway so it would be kind of meaningless at that point as to which one outperforms.

    we wont be shorting the d wave?

  121. DG

    Silver futures were up 3.8% Monday and are down 1.5% Tuesday night, so we are still looking at a gap up on Tuesday assuming this holds. Of course, one can add any time, but stock traders who want to add will be adding on a 2%+ gap opening unless I am missing something. I only mention this because I believe someone said to add on “this dip” of which there is none as of yet.

  122. catbird

    DG,

    I think people are talking about the rather steep intraday (intranight?) dip of the past several hours.

    Heck, when AGQ dropped a whole $5 on Friday afternoon I added a little!

  123. Slumdog

    I think it wise to look at Mr. Market. Gold was mild in the rise and is mild in the descent. Silver has greater swings, clearly.

    And the gold reversal of Dec/Jan/Feb appears will complete a monthly reversal pattern which is facing down, and explosively facing up.

    Silver is more volatile; hence the profits, and now the losses. I’m in on just one mini, and I see he losses on just that one nothing.

    Gold did not join in the current move down which has been nearly vertical.

    This is a normal reversal during a directional move. But it’s a shock and a financial pill.

  124. nemo

    yep. silver at the moment under friday’s high but still slight gap up from friday’s close. Gold on the other hand still above fridays high.

    Dollar has made a decent rally and above friday’s breakdown/high level

  125. Strellsy

    Gary – how would a bull flag fit in with the daily cycle? If we get a couple of days consolidation, will that coincide with a cycle low?

    Am considering taking on more leverage, but want to wait for a cycle low before I do that.

  126. Gary

    About every 18-28 days gold dips into a daily cycle low. Today will mark day 17 so it’s possible that dip is beginning. The fact that this daily cycle has become extremely right translated puts the odds very heavily in favor of any dip holding well above the last cycle low of $1307.

    The wild card is the dollar. It should have more downside as it’s not in the timing band for a cycle low yet. That should drive another pop higher in precious metals, probably to test the old highs, before the true dip down into the next cycle low.

    This could be the beginning of the dip down but I suspect the dollar will turn tail very quickly and we will see gold pop right back up one more time before the real move into the cycle low begins.

  127. Gary

    Sure you can buy any dip. It’s a bull market after all.

    Now if you are asking me will you be buying the exact bottom of the dip? I have no idea.

    Personally I’m going to wait till we get deeper in the timing band for a cycle low before considering adding exposure (gold isn’t actually even in the timing band yet).

    But then I have the luxury of having my full position already.

  128. Poly

    Just yesterday I wrote how complacent and giddy the posts had become and to be prepared for big swings. Well here it is, I guess as it came between US equity market closings it didn’t sting with “the account balance refresh”

  129. Avann

    I just woke up and this looks very appealing to me as I still have some to add. Here’s hoping it holds at this level till the open.

  130. Slumdog

    Poly said…

    Just yesterday I wrote how complacent and giddy the posts had become and to be prepared for big swings.”

    Your sense of the market mood was dead on. Capitulation is so simple to watch, the cards just crumble.

    I will speculate the top is always an arc. The reason? Big money needs to take its opposing position.

    My support? Last night in ACCESS gold, I saw a 300 lot stand out and commented on it, a sell lot, and thought it strange as the bids and asks around it were 1’s and 5’s.

    It’s a pain to track, but there it was. I speculate that’s the big player preparing the soil for the action.

  131. T.J. Rand

    For the conspiracy theorists – A brief extranormal video (Turd Ferguson creation) starring Blythe Masters. Fits well with the action we’ve been seeing. To recap, the CTs believe JPM et al have been suppressing the price of silver, and these Banks are now getting crushed by short silver positions and are frantically working to somehow decrease their shorts and also the COMEX Open Interest.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lq0bAOVaQwQ

    From Harvey Organ:

    “Wednesday night the official March contract goes off the board. Also all option-holders with in the money silver that wish to take delivery of metal must exercise his option and then wait for a delivery of a March future contract and then stand for delivery. The March contract continues to trade as the stragglers must decide whether to roll their contracts or stand for delivery. On the 28th of February at precisely 1:30 pm, we get to see how many open interest will eventually stand. We also see the total number of notices filed to be sent down for servicing. Deliveries may begin on March 1.2011 and continue throughout the month. If we have greater number of oz than exist anywhere then a commercial failure is upon us. In that scenario, expect cash settlements and a run on the banks and the comex to fail. There has never been a failure in silver and gold. The closest we have been to a silver default was the Hunt brothers in 1980 but the bankers were bailed out by the Government. The USA had 2 billion oz of above ground silver then. Today they have none!!”

    Should be a wild week.

  132. Gary

    Folks we are a long way from giddy.

    Three really strong days in a row will get everyone exited for sure. But sentiment is still just barely above extreme bearish levels.

    The Bullish percentage is still below 50%.

    The COT is still extremely bullish. Open interest levels has only moved up a measly 1100 contracts to 472000. At a final top it will likely be over 700,000.

    This is what powerful momentum moves do. They rocket higher. drop into a sharp correction as short term traders get nervous and sell. Then the chasers use any pullback to panic into the move.

    Just stay focused on the big picture.

  133. jeff

    gary

    We will not be in the market during a D-wave anyway so it would be kind of meaningless at that point as to which one outperforms.

    we wont be shorting the d wave?

  134. Gary

    I will not short a D-wave. It’s too hard to pick the top of the parabola and the violent counter trend rallies will just end up knocking shorts out for losses.

    I may short the tech sector during that time.

  135. Poly

    Gary,

    “giddy” was in reference to some of the posters in this forum, not the gold/silver market! My point was, keep your eye on the prize, long way to go to $50 silver and we will have plenty of time to count the winnings. Stop worrying about the D wave, what AGQ is going to open or if the bull market will hit $10,000.
    The same people come running back on these wild swings wondering if the C wave is dead and if we should sell!

  136. DG

    Hey Alex! You never should have talked me into taking such a small position in GPL. Nice move this morning. πŸ˜‰

  137. Avann

    I’m still adding on any price below 33.50 … I’ll still keep some cash available in case it goes back to 32.50 (high hopes).

  138. Ohio Rob

    Gary, I read the weekend report and have a question about increasing exposure. Let’s do a hypothetical (which is reality for me). If your portfolio was currently 25% AGQ, 15% SIL, and 10% GDXJ… what would your strategy be going forward? Should I just place market orders for the open today to get to 100-130%? Place limit orders at the 10 SMA of $GLD and adjust at the open each day until they fill? Or something completely different. Thanks G!

  139. Gary

    Bob,
    Well first off you aren’t really going to see a pullback in AGQ today as it will open higher than Friday’s close.

    You also need to decide for yourself how much exposure you are comfortable with depending on your own situation (wife, kids, age, income).

    What’s appropriate for me may not be appropriate for you. (If you lose money is your wife going to make you sleep on the couch for the next two months.)

    So decide if 130% is really right for you and keep in mind that AGQ is an extremely volatile asset. Can you handle those kind of volatile swings without making an emotional mistake?

  140. james r

    Gary,

    What I meant, after this C-wave we will have a D-wave and after the D-wave the fundamental ratio between gold/silver “may” change in which gold may perform better due to economic circumstance.

    James

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