129 thoughts on “PORTFOLIO CHANGE

  1. thedocument

    23t870,

    In response to your inquiry from the last post, stocks still have up to 4 weeks to find a DCL. They could do so with any counter-trend bounce by the DX. Also keep in mind my intermediate equity cycle analysis differs from Gary’s in the way I count various cycles. I am not expecting an ICL for equities until late April or early May, a drop that will likely coincide with a bounce out of an ICL for the DX.

  2. William Wallace

    If gold moves back below the 10dma and 250dma convergence I will add to the $1610 futures short, also depends on where stocks are at in the timing band. Stop is any move above the 200dma.

  3. Gary

    No way we are going to get an intermediate degree decline in the stock market paired with a left translated daily cycle bounce in an intermediate dollar cycle that has topped.

  4. Gary

    Plus an intermediate cycle bottoming in May would call for a very stretched cycle. The “norm” would have the stock market bottoming in the middle week of March. Roughly one year from the tsunami bottom. Yearly cycles do tend to run about 12 months.

  5. GottaHaveIt

    BobLovesHawaii,

    Did you short the market yesterday?

    SDS looked good this morning, but now the market is turning green.

    I think you said you send out your buy/sell signals by Twitter, right?

    What is your Twitter address?

  6. thedocument

    Gary,

    If the dollar is bouncing out of a ICL, the daily cycles corresponding to an intermediate equity drop do not have to be LT and likely won’t be. We will see 1 or 2 RT daily cycles as the new intermediate cycle ascends.

    As for the intermediate equity cycle, it won’t be stretched. I noted that I count intermediate cycles differently. I think you and Tim Woods miss a very important characteristic of intermediate cycles… a characteristic which has frustrated both of you in years past when you were looking for ICLs in the 4th quarter that never materialized until the cycle looked very “stretched”. You are setting yourself up for the same trap here.

  7. TommyD

    I think I am going to take a 5% investment in “SH” short s&p. Sounds like a safe entertainment here.

    Tom
    PS. I am not a licensed anything so do your own thing…

  8. thedocument

    William Wallace,

    It’s not a typo. Stocks are on Day 27 of the daily cycle. The normal timing band stretches to Day 45… almost 4 weeks from now.

    Besides, believing the dollar will trek higher here is a very dangerous proposition. Would stocks and gold be holding up so well here if the DX were set to rally big? For that matter, would gold be up two days in a row against the backdrop of a surging DX if the yellow metal had not printed a major low last week?

    The environment is ripe for a trend change in the dollar. The market just needs a catalyst. Almost no one on the planet believes the DX can drop here given the environment in Europe, and when the shift comes, the dollar is going to get hammered so fast that heads will spin.

  9. 23t870

    Doc said,

    “The environment is ripe for a trend change in the dollar. The market just needs a catalyst. Almost no one on the planet believes the DX can drop here given the environment in Europe, and when the shift comes, the dollar is going to get hammered”

    That reminds me that Gary has also said the dollar tends to change trends on or about the jobs report, which is tomorrow …

  10. Frank

    The USD is in reality extremely weak if you ignore the EUR. It is below parity against CHF and AUD, it’s at 77 against the JPY.

    Notably, the EUR is extremely weak by all measures other than the USD. It notably dropped below 100 against the JPY and is now printing 98.xx. The EUR also dropped below 9 versus SEK.

    With this background, I would advise against drawing any conclusions about an index that is 58% (?) measured against EUR.

  11. sophia

    23t870,

    I am not sure that Gary and Doc mean the same thing: Gary means that the market turns on employment day, but the relationship strong dollar/weak risk assets remains the same, while Doc is now arguing in favor of a reverse of relationship, which is an interesting view as well

  12. Gary

    There is no other way to count cycles. October was clearly an intermediate low. The last several years have been stretched by QE1 and QE2 but that isn’t a reason to expect every intermediate cycle to stretch from now on.

    The bottom line is that for stocks to bottom in May would require the IC to stretch to 30 weeks.

    D-waves are tricky. There is no need to be a hero at this point and risk getting dragged down into another sharp correction. If we did see an intermediate bottom then the current daily cycle will be right translated.

    One just enters at the next daily cycle low with very little risk and the knowledge that the D-wave is finished.

  13. sophia

    Gary,

    Thanks for your comment at 7.28AM…You are right, I got caught last year on the exhuberance at the end of the cycle and paid dearly

  14. William Wallace

    Doc,

    I agree, I do believe gold has bottomed until I see a move below the 300dma again. A move above the 200dma and I will begin leaning towards the last daily cycle being a stretched one having bottomed on 12/29.

  15. William Wallace

    at ease,

    Yeah, this was just a small short position to play the reversal off the 200dma. Willing to give back a little of the profits from the heavy long I took off the 300dma.

  16. William Wallace

    at ease,

    We got the reversal I was expecting, I took off some of my long there last night, posted it.$1600 held today and gold pushed higher with the help of stocks, I wouldn’t be suprised to see my stop hit and gold continue higher.

  17. Gary

    I’ll say it again. D-waves are tricky. If the current daily cycle ends up being right translated then we will enter heavily at the next daily cycle low.

    My object isn’t to be right. It is to make money with the lowest risk.

    I’ll let others pat themselves on the back if they guess the D-wave bottom correctly. The only time I would be willing to go heavily long is if an intermediate cycle bottoms in the normal timing band. That obviously didn’t happen last week. So I’m content to wait for confirmation and enter at the next daily cycle low if need be.

    We are going to get a profit taking event soon in the stock market. How assets react during that process will tell us if gold did in fact find its D-wave bottom.

  18. William Wallace

    I mentioned to TZ yesterday to keep in mind that if the market pushes higher tomorrow and then rolls over and takes gold with it, its possible we see gold push above the 200dma and the $1644 high (which would make the last DC 27 days having bottomed on 12/29), and then reverse into a left translated cycle that could give us another vicious leg down as stocks move into a DCL. Its obvious that gold is ignoring the dollar as I mentioned it would out of a bottom, but its not ignoring stocks.

  19. William Wallace

    If one is not taking chunks out of out of gold and running the way I am, there is only one other way to profit right now as I told TZ last night, Gary’s way. One has to enter at DCL’s or risk getting split in two trying to jump in in the middle of nowhere.

  20. William Wallace

    Aaron,

    The reversal in gold last night didn’t occur off the 200dma actually, I took off my long at $1625, which was $5 before the 200dma…the reversal occured when the European markets opened at 3AM, as soon as they opened stock futures dipped, dollar rallied, and gold reversed. Today stocks reversed again and gold followed.

  21. GottaHaveIt

    BobLovesHawaii,

    I’m trying to follow you on twitter (@Bobloveshawaii) so I can get your stock market buy/sell signals but it says your twitter feed is restricted to approved followers only. I’ve never run into that before.

    Just my two cents … but I think you should make your twitter feed open to the public to make it easier for everyone to follow you (and less hassle for you).

  22. coolkevs

    Interesting, well, DeMark indicators have indicated there could be a breakdown between the Dollar UP, everything else down relationship.
    However, EUO, the double inverse Euro fund is showing a DAILY perfected Sequential SELL today – good for 12 days and confirmed with a bearish price flip. WEEKLY is recording a perfected SELL this week, good for the next 1-4 weeks.
    FXE is showing the same, albeit reversed – a DAILY Sequential 13 BUY perfected, and WEEKLY BUY Setup 9.
    /6E Euro futures are showing only DAILY Bar 10 of 13 on thinkorswim, but the WEEKLY BUY Setup is there.
    So, keep a watch on the Euro – should be good for risk assets.

  23. Danno

    FWIW… $SPX printed a Dragonfly Doji candle yesterday (bearish in this case) followed by a Hanging Man candle today (bearish in this case).

    Confirmation is still required Friday in the form of a black candlestick, a large gap down or a lower close.

    This doesn’t necessarily mean price is about to collapse. But it does mean price is going to have a hard time moving higher and may retreat first. It’s pretty clear there is overhead resistance to defeat in the area of October’s high of 1290.

  24. JG

    Dano,
    Are you sure its not a Butterfly Nija burning rod with Tuna fish dome reverse head and shoulders fake out?

    …sorry couldn’t resist!

    Its amazing what you can see in a chart if looking at it long enough.

  25. Ivan G

    All we need tomorrow is a tiny short comment from a FED official ‘ That loan supporting rumours are quite unsustainable’. And that’s it.

  26. Danno

    JG,
    Both candles are real and valid warning signs that price may be stalling. And it supports Gary’s position.

    http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs26.asp

    However, their predictive power is of medium reliability so I would not anticipate a big sell off based on those candles alone. IMO the $SPX is still a buy, although it may pull back to test the 200ma and neckline of the inverted H&S.

  27. TZ(8155)

    >Dano, Are you sure its not a Butterfly Nija burning rod with Tuna fish dome reverse head and shoulders fake out?
    …sorry couldn’t resist!

    JG,

    Don’t pick on Danno.
    He’s just british,
    he can’t help it.

    πŸ™‚

  28. kmisak

    If a butterfly ninja flaps its wings in Toronto, would ppl stateside cut Danno some slack? : D

    More interestingly, is the behavior in miners a mere wiggle, or the beginnings of a melt up?

  29. thedocument

    I’ve been enjoying the debate here the last couple of days. It really boils down to people bouncing ideas off each other. There have certainly been times when Gary and I have outperformed each other, and I must say that Gary did a fabulous job of protecting capital in the choppy 4th quarter.

    At times seeing a differing opinion will help one find a flaw in his or her own analysis. At other times the differing opinion only solidifies one’s own contrary view. This is one of those times I am sticking stubbornly to my own view. For those interested, I have opened up this evening’s letter to the public.

    The DOCument January 5 Letter

  30. Gary

    Even if there is another leg down it won’t last long and the bull will rescue mistimed entries anyway.

    So as long as one can handle a draw down now is as good a time as any and before the bull is over any positions taken here will be wildly profitable.

  31. Gary

    I’m just not in a hurry to jump in front of a daily cycle correction in the stock market. Those have a way of bleeding into every other sector. Plus we will have an intermediate correction coming due in March. Those tend to be scary and the selling pressure is intense.

  32. Veronica

    Having been in the gold markets heavily since 2002, I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many gold market timers/ gurus bearish.Barring an extremely quick turn to bullish sentiment I have to believe the bottom has been put in.

  33. SF Giants Fan

    Veronica

    I posted this yesterday. As everyday passes I’m starting to agree with you.

    It seems like EVERYONE is waiting for gold to hit the $1400’s. Not just this blog but many others (except doc). And you know what happens when everyone is waiting for the same thing. It never happens. I hope I’m wrong.

  34. Veronica

    SF Giant, another prominent market timer called for 1300 gold and 21 silver just last night. Maybe they will all be right, but I have to be contrarian here.

  35. Robert

    Veronica /S.F giants fan-

    Only point I have to disagree is that last week sentiment was at an all time low for gold…this week sentiment has done a 180 turn..every thing i have read the last few days has gold going up big time –not seeing hardly any negative comments on gold the past few days ,just the opposite .Not sure what you are basing your opinion on–

  36. Shalom Bernanke

    It’s high time to be Old Turkey. If one can’t buy the big pullbacks (over several months) in a monster bull market, and then sit tight through all the crosscurrents, they will never understand how markets work.

    Jeez, after riding a D-wave or whatever one wants to call it, I’m barely down on “early” entry.

    At this stage, if you can’t step up you’d be better off trying to protect what you have left. UUP ain’t the answer, trust me on that.

  37. p2000x

    Yeah, I’m not stopped out either on my spot trade (as of yet), but man, would be pretty surprised to survive this massive gold grinding-up…
    It seems to be the classic “not if but when” theme, lol.

  38. William Wallace

    At ease,

    I said it many times, and I will say it again…it was always my expectation that a new advance would be born on the 300dma, this advance was launched off the 300dma the day after gold closed on the 300dma, so I dont anticipate that gold will decline unless stocks decline and pressure gold…I was long off the 300dma and took off part of my position at $1625 last night being stock futures began to decline and the dollar began to rally when the European markets opened, the last 25% of my long position was stopped out at $1610 and the short triggered. This morning stocks reversed and gold pushed back up now near to my stop on the short, which is above the 200dma. If that stop is triggered gold has moved back above the 200dma, where I obviously always planned on being long, but I will wait until European markets open again and see if gold and US stock futures come under pressure again and remain under pressure into tomorrow. If stocks begin a decline tomorrow into a DCL and gold is under pressure I will obviously not want to be long, so I have to see how things go.

  39. William Wallace

    During the 04′ correction gold’s IC failed, then gold rallied out of that new low for 5 days off a reversal candle, only to drop hard for the following three days to a new lower low…so I dont take failed IC’s lightly and trade cautiously optimistic πŸ™‚

  40. Gary

    SB,
    There is nothing that says one is only allowed to make money in the precious metals market.

    While you’ve been riding out a D-wave watching much of your profits evaporate we’ve made a decent gain. Can I do that every time? Probably not. I certainly got lucky with quite a few trades. But this notion that there is only one way to make money in the market is just absurd.

    We will reinvest our gains back into the bull at some point. Picking the exact bottom isn’t critical, but intentionally stepping in front of a daily cycle correction in the stock market is probably not a high percentage trade.

    When we see how assets respond to stocks dropping down into that low we will have a better idea whether gold has bottomed or not? At most we have 8-13 days to wait for our answer. I doubt that the bull is going to run away from us in that short amount of time.

  41. William Wallace

    Another thing I would like to point out is the True Strength Index on gold’s weekly is still not in negative territory, usually the case with past corrections.

  42. ...at ease

    WW, Speaking for myself, I have full confidence in Gary, and his calls. I just don’t have full confidence in myself to not over leverage on trades. So for safe keeping and my own peace of mind, rather than trying to trade it all on the moves, I chose to ride 30% of funds old turkey in TGLDX. Which by the way TGLDX was fully funded on earned profits trading with Gary since March of 2011. πŸ™‚

  43. Keys

    Plenty of people can make plenty of money with different approaches. In terms of going forward, being a conservative, I am locking some key positions in and sitting. Old turkey…will still get out at any parabolic event, but this day trading stuff is not for me, although I fully respect those that do it.

    Agree with Gary on the gold market not being the only market, although it is a biggy for me. Added some oil plays to create some income, and toying with some agriculture positions which I have not fully worked through yet. Put on a toy tlt bearish put spread for fun, but done just to keep my hands busy and treated as a spec play.

    I still think when it comes time to buy and hold, too many will trade themselves out of the bull, being conditioned to accept zero% drawdowns, but to not repeat.

    I don’t like the uup trade, and of course I could be wrong, but I don’t think treasuries are acting as though the dollar wants to go up.

    Either way I wish everyone here a prosperous 2012 and beyond in whatever approach they take

  44. Gold Lion

    The dollar on the daily chart looks like and expanding megaphone chart pattern. I usually equate that as a bearish indicator. Looks ripe for a swoosh down to me…just saying πŸ™‚

  45. Gary

    One would have to squint pretty hard to see a meagphone pattern on the dollar index not to mention those occur at tops not bottoms.

    There’s just no way the dollar is going to drop and we still get a daily cycle correction in the stock market.

    In order for the dollar to drop then one would have to assume that the normal daily cycle in stocks is going to be aborted. Barring an announcement of QE3 I doubt the odds of that happening are very high.

  46. Gary

    Give it time. The market will move down into a daily cycle low. Often the employment report is the signal to start selling the news.

  47. sophia

    Definitely ErichH…and I think that people are confused by that, but developements will be very interesting when they start getting it…Watch the US Treasuries…

  48. Danno

    Since I’m not a member yet can someone please tell me if a Daily Cycle Low requires that price actually drops significantly? Can you move into a DCL without price really moving much? Just curious. Thanks.

  49. Gary

    Actually the S&P has made most of it’s head way on the days the dollar was dropping. It’s just been able to hang on to most of the gains when the dollar rallies.

    Now we are moving into the timing band for a daily cycle low. We will see the urge to take profits and it will intensify on days the dollar is stronger.

  50. Gary

    After consolidating above the double top for a couple of weeks the dollar is now ready for another large leg up. This isn’t going to be stopped by any resistance level. It’s only going to intensify as the stock market moves down. It will top when the market finds a cycle low.

    Gold may resist that for a while but if you add in the selling pressure from stocks moving down into a cycle low it’s probably a safe bet that gold tests the lows if not make a marginally lower low.

    I keep warning people not to jump in front of a daily cycle correction in stocks. Just a little patience is all that’s needed.

  51. Avann

    Danno, a DCL requires a swing high (price moving below the previous low) and generally a break of the daily cycle trend line.
    It’s usually very noticeable.

    Get a subscription!

  52. Avann

    And BTW … if the swing happens outside of “normal” timing bands it should be ignored … all the more reason to get a subscription.
    No one identifies bottoms better than Gary … absolutely no one!

  53. William Wallace

    When the dollar rallied out of the 08′ 3 year cycle low it completely ignored any previous pivot resistance levels, the 81.44 pivot will most likely be ignored also.

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