25 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY”

    1. David Silver

      Damn dude remarkable report you should be a prodessional manager/analyst ?.

      William what are your thoughts on crude here since you’ve been spot on as of late. I think my same question to Mr. Savage got lost in the shuffle of messages.

      TIA!

      1. William

        Yo dude…am really lousy with crude oil and I personally don’t like to trade it due to a simple fact that the fundamental is yet to bottom versus technical?

        I still think Gold has the purest technical of all the tradable things out there where you can completely ignore the fundamental side of gold and focus solely on its technical and make money out of it!

        Also, these days, I dont like to “diversify” trades into too many instruments as the very act of diversification can also diversify your trades or holdings into more risks.

        Try focus on what you do bests, that’s my principle for now…

  2. Downer

    Gary,

    I assume that October crash your though was on the horizon a few weeks ago is a distant memory?

    1. gary Post author

      The PPT definitely aborted the rest of the move down into the 7 year cycle low. I always knew this was a possibility. That’s why I begged and pleaded with people not to short the market unless it dropped below the Sept. 29th low.

  3. zkotpen

    Looking for gold & GDX to finish their moves down into the DCL, around Tuesday/Wednesday, before reversal into a new daily cycle.

  4. AlexP

    agreed, Gary.
    I expect to see bubble phase begin in early February, aster intermediary cycle low is set in stocks.

    Short-term:
    – tomorrow to start de daily cycle decline in stocks (bearish abandoned baby in nasdaq); Friday saw an failed breakout out of an intraday cup-with-handle –> this item along with the need of USD to go into HCL by Wednesday, sets traders mind to throw stocks into decline
    – Wednesday stocks up again but will fail to produce a higher high
    – correlation btw USD and SPX turns negative as USD get out of its HCL and heads up to its DCH while stocks dive into DCL
    – decline to some 1965 of SPX somewhere Nov 7-12.
    – USD shows a monthly swing low next week too be breaking above 98.44.
    – gold & commodities will move into their DCH by Wednesday and then go down producing failed daily cycles early

    Medium term:
    – USD to find its YCH in Decmber, most likely before employment sit.
    – ICH in stocks sometime btw Christmas- New Year’s Eve

    1. Hong Bang

      Hi Alex,

      I loss some 20% in my speculative account in Gold Trading last week.

      Still do not foresee any clear price orientation.

      Thanks

      1. AlexP

        Hi, Hong.
        I think there were 3 mistakes that you made there, the third being the largest by far – it is a structural mistake:
        1) you went long gold while it was clearly into a DC decline after it DID show plenty of distribution and resistance at its 200dma
        2) you should NOT have held any positions open at the moment of ECB statement on Thursday but rather wait to see WHAT SCENARIO WOULD EVENTUALLY BE PLAYED by her Lady Market and follow her direction (either remain in cash or go long USD)
        3) HONG, YOU HAVE A TRADING PROBLEM! IT IS UNACCEPTABLE TO LOSE AS MUCH AS -20% PER A SINGLE TRADE!!!!! YOU LACK RISK MANAGEMENT IN YOUR SYSTEM (if you have any trading system at all).
        You should not risk more than 1.5% of your equity on any leveraged trade !
        I advise you to read Van Tharp’s book “Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom” and A.Elder’s “Come Into My Trading Room; A Complete Guide to Trading” and “The New Trading For a Living” – there you have insights both into risk management, money management (VTharp tackles money momagement) and also biginners’ faults that are also obvious in your approach.
        Good luck!

        1. AlexP

          additionally, Hong, you should quit trading until you have complete trading plan (4 dimensions: entry rules, positions sizing rules, risk management rules and SOME exit rules).
          NB: I press a lower importance on rules in exits because it is very hard to make elegant exits; here it is gut feeling that is most important. But several rules must be there too.

          I repeat: -20% loss per trade is UNacceptable!

  5. Paul

    Hi Alex

    With the SPX heading for 1965 by Nov 7 to 12 where would this leave GDX as you state that gold and commodities starting to head down next wednesday. I have seen quite a few prices ranging fro $15.20 to $12.70. Just your best guess would suffice. Many thanks.

    1. AlexP

      as I told you, I do not follow gdx at all but I expect gold to go lower as the dollar heads into its yearly cycle high early this winter or in the the first half of January the latest.
      The YCH in USD and the ICL in gold should come in a short period of time, how short/long…we are to see 🙂

      But anyway, I think one needs to be a risk-addict, a gold fetishist, to go long gold as USD searches for its YCH medium-term. Especially that there are many more other opportunities worhwhile exploring from a reward/risk perspective.

        1. AlexP

          tulip, I meant that beyong the FOMC meeting it makes no sense being long in something (in this case gold) that looks so much in contradiction with its driver (in our case the direction of USD).
          One should wait in cash (no short no long) for how USD moves after FOMC meeting and if indeed it leaves a HCL behind moving higher, as it is most likely to occur, then one should take a position, either long USD or short gold.
          But no movement makes sense before, being long now before seeing the market plays, is suicidal

      1. tulip

        Thank you Gary for all of yr effort here.
        When you say ‘ever’…. I find it v difficult to believe they won’t.
        let it drop below….. at some point… evers a long time….
        tulip

      2. AlexP

        that would be a fib38 retracement only from DCH on friday of nearly 2080.
        That is likely but that would the most optimistic scenario, I think.

      3. Anthonyo

        It all started when the bear could not close under Dow 16,000 in 5 tries over 2 weeks in September. It was all melt up after that, and PPT even got some help from the fake job report 2 Fridays ago which portrayed the job numbers to be worse than what they really were.
        Then the Fed nudged Draghi to sing praise of QE last Thursday to give additional boost to PPT efforts.

        So here we are 1500 points higher in 3 weeks. Hooray for PPT and the Fed for derialing yet another deep correction.

        17.732 Dow will be the last fort, if conquered this baby is going to 18,500 fast.

  7. Johan

    Hi Alex,
    How far do you expect the USD to go at its YCH, parity against the Eur, dollar index 102?

    And is that the final top? Looking at the long-term chart it looks to me that it could go further?

    Thanks for your analysis!!

    1. AlexP

      You’re welcome, Johan!
      I have no idea what the actual YCH may be, not even close. I can only suspect that WE WILL SO NO OTHER HIGHER yearly cycle high, that the big bear in USD is already in motion, but…that’s just a hunch.

      Otherwise, pls see the answer I gave to Tulip here. My best advice is to wait the FOMC and see how the market reacts past the very first 1-3 minutes.
      I am pretty much sure USD and astocks will diverge again from their strong current positive correlation, which should send USD higher after the HCL on Wednesday, but confirmation can come for this scenario only after FOMC stmt. And if you have the signal, then you move in ! [in this case short gold, long usd]

  8. Marco

    Gary,
    You said that there could be a possible rise in gold,stock market and dollar.
    Do you really think that the broader stock market will rise alongside with gold?
    It would be great since I own lots of gold stocks,but I’m rather pessimist about the short/medium term for PM sector.
    Especially if the dollar will rise I don’t see as gold could go up as well.
    Thank you.

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