GOLD’S BABY BULL IS OVER; THE ADOLESCENT PHASE IS JUST BEGINNING
Folks if you are tired of buying when you should be selling, and selling when you should be buying,
Chasing indicators that are always pointing down at bottoms, and up at tops,
Trying to decipher which alternate wave count is correct (always a favorite strategy for many newsletter writers. With multiple alternate counts a guru can always claim he called the market perfectly as he covered all the bases).
Or calls that are so vague that they make Greenspan’s Fed speak seem clear….
I’m going to give any of you that are still on the fence another opportunity to get on board the SMT at a 20% discount. Buy a yearly subscription to the Smart Money Tracker today or tomorrow, and I will rebate $40 back to you. Just click on the orange sign up today link and choose the yearly subscription.
I don’t do alternate counts. You will never have any trouble deciphering my trades. They will be crystal clear, and posted to the model portfolios in real time.
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Gary,
thanks for your good job.
HUI is already 140% up from its lowest 99, I carefully reviewed HUI historical price action in bull market, that showed when HUI was going up to 130-150%, MUST have a 5-6(even 1 year) months consolidation. Right now GOLD and MINER just only one month pull back. I am little bit worry about GOLD and MINER still be on flat consolidation period,THE ADOLESCENT PHASE IS NOT JUST BEGINNING. If GOLD is going over $1306, then you can say that. Will see.
the picture shows GDX potential price action pattern in near future. I agree with it.
https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/GDX223.png
That is not my job. whole analysis from: https://goldtadise.com/?p=373168
I tend to think there is a better place to be than miners for this intermediate cycle as well. See the metals portfolio in the premium newsletter for details.
FWIW the first year doesn’t have to stop at 130-140%. Coming out of the last 8 YCL miners gained 250% in the first year. They got beat up much worse this time so I would expect the first year gains could likely be even larger.
Thanks your reply. you give us another possibility. We should trade carefully.
So the best bet is price ETFs (p.ex. AGQ and UGL) other than stocks etfs like GDX. You think the asset price is going to outperform the miners this time. A particular reason for that?
Miners are still too stretched above the 200 DMA.
Could there be another possibility where gold makes lower high now(lower than the end of April/start of May high at around 1306) and then heads down in similar fashion adn scope as it did in May to the 1150-1160 area?
indeed very true that the alternative wave counts end up covering all bases, but knowing which is the path only as time progresses and as the market evolves… the counts even change to adapt to the evolving market
Gary,
Do you still think oil is moving in to a DCL?
Yes
Gary — is this SPX selloff to 2085 today all we’re going to get, or are you seeing more downside? VIX up 40% in 3 days and SPX down only about 1% or so.
I think we will probably get some kind of rally into the FOMC, but I doubt the half cycle low will be completely finished until Brexit. After that we should get a monster relief rally to new all-time highs.
Makes sense…so no longs until after Brexit vote. Need to be careful on that timing.
Thoughts if we take out 2025 on SPX.
Gary, i believe (also) the brexit will not happen, and shares have a relief rally. In this context doesn’t gold fall (and maybe hard)? Cheers
The Brexit vote is in late June. Doesn’t that mean you are going to lose that bet and refund a whole much of folks.
Heck we already tested the all time highs. We were within a half percent, moved above the November high, and we added over 20% to the stock portfolio. I think I can safely say everyone is ecstatic with the performance at the SMT.