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Gary, going long at session-end may be a bit too late because EURUSD, once it touches 1.08 in two days or on early Thursday in Asian trading, it should roll over.
Why?
Because GBPUSD still has to run on its upside (to top in a week) while EURGBP should top quickly this week so that its mirroring pair (GBPEUR) put its DCL.
Thus, we have EUR resuming its weakness against GBP in 2-3 days and GBP too falling in its daily cycle decline after topping on Friday/Monday.
All this means EURUSD falling after a strong upside to 1.08 into FOMC meeting –> BAD FOR GOLD/MINERS !
Thus, we need to see the trends, take action quickly by buying and then standing ready to dump the gold/miners ’cause a strong reversal is set to ensue by currency pairs.
We may not have a lower low but…it will be a roller coaster for sure !
Terry, no, no, by FOMC gold at 1300 in no way.
Gold should top at some 1230 before FOMC as EURUSD advances towards 1.08 in the next 2 days and then both back down in shortened daily cycles for EUR and gold.
If FED rises its rate to 0.50%, we may get lower lows by Friday DEC15 (and the IH for USX in a bull trap).
Who is Terry…?
This may be slightly off topic, but does anyone have any recommendations for promising junior Gold mining stocks?
GMoney
If your looking for junior miners. Have a look at the following Australia two gold producing miners. EVN.ax and NST.ax both are well priced currently close to their lows and both have had a series of good exploration announcements increasing their reserves and mine life. One final Aussie gold stock is GOR.ax an explorer with large gold reserves just announced a JV with Gold Fields Ltd ( a large experienced South African gold company) to begin the mining operation.
Check them out
I have no clue on these day trades but gold is overdue for a yearly cycle low. The rallies out of yearly cycle lows tend to be the most powerful, and if we are in a new bull market, the rally should last at least 3, and maybe 4 months.
Indeed! But inter-currency correlations + FOMC in just 2w indicate we are squeezed so that this time we may not have the usual room of V-rallies out of YCLs.
Furthermore, such a roller coaster (EURUSD up to 1.08 + gold at ~1230 in 2 days and then back down) would be the kind of scissoring to annoy and kill many bulls and bears –> excellent pre-event of an YCL 🙂
Furthermore, the former YC of EUR was a bit short so that a 13-month YC extending into December would fit in nicely –> FED is key here, how much it raises, but we will have the roller coaster anyway!
Fed is only raising .25 not .50 dollar strength will hurt export in long run
I referred to raise to 0.5% fixed rate not by +0.5% 🙂
I wanted to let you know I think you are doing a great job. This is a guessing game and nobody really knows what will happen next. You put up with a lot of critics which says a lot.
Trying to time the market is a losing proposition in the long run. Its difficult enough just trying to get the trend correct let alone trying to trade in and out of the market. If you are able to do that on a long term basis congratulations to you. Not many people can do that.
The big money is made is getting the trend right and just setting tight. Sure there are drawdowns but that’s life. You are going to get left behind trying to time the market 9 times out of 10 in my opinion.
It is amazing how market sentiment can change in 6 months. Sentiment towards gold right now is the most bearish I have seen in quite a long time.
Palladium is up $17 today. One of these days platinum will wake up – who knows when – 6 days from now or 6 years from now.
it is rare how well everything falls in as neatly as now underscoring a damaging roller coaster for EUR and gold/miners.
I am holding my gold and then dump it some 1230 in 2 days. I rely on EURUSD being forced to advance violently by Wednesday at 1.08, which is pretty sure bet.
Gary: Nice call regarding the bounce in the metals today.
Weekly trend is down. Nimble traders may eke out a small gain. Up to the individual. Hard to get excited about a wet noodle bounce.
Short 500 TCK at 26.45. That SOB has a had 600 run from the bottom and everyone and their mother is long.
Segments rotation gains speed: Utilities have a decisive follow-through while many offensives provide swing highs.
Nyse Composite, my favorite broad index, has also charted its swing high — MIND ITS TRUTHFULLNESS: IT HAS HAD LOWER LOWS !
SPX and DOW are bullshit indicators.
correction: lower highs
look at dollar, no sign whatsoever of any reversal. It may top with fomc announcement and reverse but best to wait for actual evidence. To guess on this as some kind of gold bottom is a complete crapshoot which most here keep hoping for and losing.
when this thing turns, it will be evident, with plenty of time to ride it up otherwise a waste of time and money.
those making bottom calls, hope that they are right once in multiple attempts, so that they can point back on that one time they were correct.
I am closely watching the short-term rate; it has to roll over for gold to start going up again. Once it reverses, rate could go down very quickly.
EURUSD=1.0585
it should fall to 1.0570 first to do its own due Scorch
…in continuum with my 1st post to Gary above, GBUSD does exactly as I expect: to rise quickly to tackle its 50dma for the last time and penetrate it decisively so that it would go producing a right-translated daily cycle into Monday.
With GBPEUR (the mirror of EURGBP) feeling the urgency of reaching its DCL we have through the next days EURGBP up, GBPUSD up even more strongly, HENCE EURUSD TO SURGE VIOLENTLY FROM SUB-1.06 THROUGH THE NEXT DAYS.
Look for clues into these pairs and BEWARE OF GBPEUR REACHING ITS DCL – IT WILL BE THE TOP OF THE ROLLER COASTER FOR EUR, HENCE FOR GOLD/MINERS!
Alex, so you are saying ride gold short term up get out and reenter later after Fomc meeting ? Recovery will not be v shaped after ycl ? But you still think gold might retest high 1300’s in late January . You also said this first daily cycle in gold and Eur might be short. If that’s the case, I doubt gold gets up in 1300 ‘s in January. Any thoughts? Thanks
Make no mistake, just as Duke sees EURUSD at 1.09 in 6w, the same I think we may see 1300 in gold by the end of DEC but first – the roller coaster!
It is more likely that YCLs in EUR and Gold have yet to be set on Thursday, DEC15, for reasons presented above.
Alex that is a bold call! Ycl in gold on Dec15,….. looking forward to what will transpire in the markets …..
Alex, the way you write is a roller coaster to comprehend…
Alex, what is this “scorch” thing you have been talking about? I am assuming that you see a sharp fall in the stock market. I believe that is highly likely and it is possible that we have seen the absolute highs in the S&P already.
by “Scorch” in general I refer to a secondary/counter wave of Lady Market’s sentiment, of very strong intensity, paving the way for an extended principal move (both in amplitude and in time span).
Alternatively, we may call this an EBB 🙂
Think of a tsunami: it first produces a tide, then an ebb and then a tide of fantastic amplitude.
Now we’ve had the first inflationary impulse and it is over (just a potential bull trap likely next week), now the SCORCH (or the Ebb) ensues through JAN and then the multi-decade inflation.
Where is Pedestrian? I hope Gary hasn’t banned him.
Shorting crude. It looks ugly for the bulls.
Dave, I am not making a call on YCL in gold on DEC15 (I only said it is more likely to be then due to a Trump-hostile FED + EUR cycle considerations).
My call is another: THE ROLLER COASTER IN EUR AND GOLD/MINERS – TOPPING IN 2 OR 3 DAYS VIA VIOLENT SURGES AND THEN FALLING LIKE HARD ROCKS THROUGH DEC15.
This is my call ! If we see undercuts (YCLs in DEC) or not is irrelevant: it will be a nightmare anyway.
Thanks for the clarification. Keep up the good work!
You’re welcome, Dave!
Keep your eye on EURGBP (or rather on its twin sister GBPEUR reaching its DCL) – it is the pivoting pair for all currencies now, it sets the sentiment in currencies now hence in gold/miners.
Bye!
…one last clarification: why the EURGBP pair ?!! Because it is made up of the laggard currency (EUR – at or around its YCL) and of the leader currency (GBP – Brexit is mist) in the USX basket right now out of the top 3 currencies in the greenback mix.
Alex,
Haha we will see if there are any violent surges coming in the next couple days.
I would have to say at this point a .25% rate hike is completely priced in the metal markets and the dollar. Keep an eye on the 10 year. Hopefully it will settle down.
Forecasting the markets is like forecasting the weather and we know how that generally works out.
It is good you spend a lot of time thinking about the markets.
On a more serious note I think you would be good at tarot cards.
$1.25 bounce in aem.
Hope I’m wrong but I still think some more pullback in the market and dollar which should get gold to around 1250 then it will be another precious metal beat down … 👎👎👎
This YCL has turned you extremely negative.
All I see is higher highs and higher lows of a yearly degree. That signals a new bull market in my book.
This is a very brave statement Gary….I really hope you will be proven right since the most optimistic scenario from the majority of analysts is a double bottom at 1050 at the moment.
if you will be right even this time,after you already called the bottom in january 2016,you will be remembered in the financial history books!!! 🙂
Is this the YCL? Do you think that gold is safe from going to$1050? A lot of other analysts are calling for lower lows.
The key will be whether 1180 holds. It is an important support level defined by the classic 2013 H&S top defined by two shoulders 6 months apart at ~ 1180; the head peak at 1434 was subsequently attacked but not exceeded. This resulted in the long grind down to 1045.
Last week we had a violent one day drop to 1170 which was quickly reversed. If it falls we may be in for another test of 1045. If not, enjoy the YCL.
The miner GDXJ is sure looking like a bear flag to me unless the ICL puts in a huge key reversal day. Plus everyday its looking more like the whole first half 2016 in gold was just a bear market rally and we could collapse to new lows anytime soon. I think its possible gold collapses to its industrial usage value which would be way sub $1000.