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Let’s see what we can do with PMs in the next six months.
wait till fed meeting
Do you think it would help to counteract the people who write these articles if you were to go back to showing the portfolios and the amounts that they’ve made this year? That way the proof is always there…
lol I wonder who Gary talking bout. Duck, ped? Jus joking
The great clairvoyants Ped and Duck – in reality they know nothing.
Gold is struggling to break 1,200 with Yen so strong.
Still looking for $1,140. No positions currently though.
Comments are just comments. Stick to your predictions, don’t get drawn into tit for tat, doesn’t look good if you are right or wrong. Forums always attract polarising views, human nature. As said before take away the “characters” all your left with is the “Gary you’re the man”comments, which are pretty dull. To be fair if you use phrases like “dumb money”, “buy and hold and switch off”…. what else are you expecting.
Interesting video. Trading NUGT is really dangerous. Suggesting that people have 20-50% in Metals is fine. Makes sense if you want that kind of exposure to metals. But that makes sense if you trade GDX, GLD and SLV and GDXJ.
Trading NUGT and JNUG and then making 53% means you have actually made 17%. Leveraging 3:1 to make 53% is extremely dangerous. Even for someone who has 50% in metals. If you time it wrong you could be down 30% on GDX which would be 95% on NUGT. on a 50% exposure that knocks your portfolio down 47.5% in 3 months. Gary talks about the up move in the baby bull as if every subscriber participated in that. Surely some got taken in after that bull run and they would have only had the drawdown.
Just hear the damn video. Other than the damn stop, Gary got everything wrong. “Daily cycle….uh no it wasn’t.” “Should rally for 5-8 days….topped out on day 1” “Definitely intermediate bottom…..uh no” “Should be an intermediate bottom….wrong again.” “This one should be it but wait till $1,220.”
And BTW I did tell Gary exact levels and prices on all trades and I am up 34% in the last 3 months on my gold trades….without any leverage. Now I could do the same thing with NUGT and DUST and get 125% but I know eventually I will get everything wiped out. Might be one day when India bans Gold for 2 years and Gold opens down 12% and GDX 33.33% and NUGT goes to zero. So please don’t use those leveraged ETFs if you are going as high as 50%.
Cycle analysis is helpful. Like any other indicator, it works sometimes. The way I see it, this is where Gary fell short. He misinterpreted the 2 sharp counter bounces in September as the beginning of a new uptrend. These bounces did not show up on the weekly chart. This is a constant danger in chart reading: reading transient counter moves as impulsive moves. But, then, nobody is perfect.
Current situation. Price does not move as quickly as fingers move on a computer keyboard. Weekly trend is down, occasional bounces notwithstanding. I t is risky to get excited about these sucker overnight bounces in gold. I would not be surprised, if a complete or partial retrace occurs.
Oh of course. I know my indicators do fail at times hence I take much less leverage.
Gold is still looking like death and COT sentiment shows lot of trapped longs looking for an exit. All we need is for Modi to scream “fire” and it could get dazzling.
BAC, C and JPM are giving us clues. BAC up 26% in the last 3 weeks, JPM about 15%, C up about 17%. Those banks are connected to the FED in history and reality. Insiders and those in the know have been buying big. A big out-performance relative to the SPX. Connect the dots. I read it as Inflation coming soon. That is why the smart money has been buying bank stocks. Banks pushing out the money ball at higher rates means bigger profits for them. More dollars means lower dollar higher gold. Timing for gold is the only problem left.
Absolutely. No point in hiding behind market manipulation. Just ride the trend in place. There were good trades in bank stocks and fas, even 2 days after election results.
high rate is good for Gold?
Yes. The money supply increase means nothing unless it gets into the economy
Thank you, Brian!
EURUSD @ 1.0593 –> great to pyramid a EURUSD long position as it clears above 1.06.
This retracement of the pair as well as GBPUSD’s [temporary] rejection by its 50dma have been the pre-US market actions to charge the EUR and GBP bulls against dollar, the small scorch to help EURUSD move above 1.07 later in US trading today.
PS: it is great that gold moves higher at 1191 despite EURUSD’s retreat.
Stocks ready to prepare the bull trap: down through Thursday or so and then up to higher high.
Long EUR/USD 1.0591
hmmmm! better buying somewhat higher but considerably de-risked –> buying dips in risk-reward ratio not dips in prices!
…. once EURUSD clears back above 1.06, all weak bulls will have been shaken out + stupid bears have their complacency reinforced so that the price would have no other way to go but North [short-term]
You probably right.
When I think of long term bottoms, I generally buy in what I see as a good zone with a wide stop as I hate getting shaken out. Looking for 1.09 at the minimum over the next 6 weeks.
yes, indeed, in 6w 1.09 is quite feasible.
after fomc, both gold/miners and EUR should spring
Alex, do you still expect gold to hit 1300 by FOMC? I have revised my targets down to 127x
It lock in steel, gold going above 1200. Above 1200, whether it goes below 1170 subsequently, no idea, lets see, but it will see above 1200 first. Lets see how it behaves above that to gather some clues.
Bought GDX Jan Puts today a bit too early (0.675) as insurance and they are already under water, but already own GDX March Calls (1.71). Feel very relaxed now with my long positions in PM stocks protected against anything horrible happening.
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