1. Le Fou

    I find this kind of scary, but it seems to square with Gary’s expectations:

    Randy Wray: The Biggest Bubble of All Time – Commodities Market Speculation

    By L. Randall Wray, a Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City and Senior Scholar at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Cross posted from EconoMonitor

    Back in fall of 2008 I wrote a piece examining what was then the biggest bubble in human history: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/ppb_96.pdf.

    Say what? You thought that was tulip bulb mania? Or, maybe the NASDAQ hi-tech hysteria?

    No, folks, those were child’s play. From 2004 to 2008 we experienced the biggest commodities bubble the world had ever seen. If you looked to the top 25 traded commodities, you found prices had doubled over the period. For the top 8, the price inflation was much more spectacular.

    Read the rest here:

    Good trading,
    Le Fou

  2. Gary

    Le Fou,
    Randy Wray is a typical academic idiot.

    Commodities are not in a bubble they are in a secular bull market driven by supply and demand and excessive money creation.

    The only true bubble at this time is a gigantic bubble in US government debt. When that bubble pops it’s going to look like the end of the world is here.

  3. Harry

    I don’t trust anyone whose title is ‘Professor of Economics’ (except for Bob Murphy), but Univ of Missouri-Kansas City in particular is a den of quacks. That’s one of the few places MMT actually has an academic presence.

  4. Abdullah

    I cannot recall a day when I haven’t heard that gold and silver are in their own respective “bubbles”. I can understand that to some extent, because if you were one of the people that watches housing rising and rising and rising and then finally decided “you had to buy” and catch the train, only to see your house fall 40% in value, you are pretty aware of how bubbles can hurt.

    This is MUCH different than the housing bubble where everyone was buying. This is different than the NASDAQ bubble where everyone was buying. This time Everyone is selling! They’re taking Grandmoms wedding ring, and their gold chains and cashing out. They’re flocking to these “we buy gold” outfits and SELLING to them. They are NOT lined up in the parking lot to BUY. They’re taking their money and buying ipads.

    My bottom line here is that “there’s more than meets the eye”, neither are even anywhere close to being a bubble, and yes, it’s still fine to buy the stuff.

  5. gold silver troll

    someone posted that NUGT is going to become a 3x etf from dec 2011…that would be nasty

    i can totally see the fear with buying NUGT when Gary calls the intermediate bottom, asking us to buy miners

    NUGT would be down 25% on a day like today…UGLY

  6. Ben

    Le Fou,

    a 100% rise in four years, and he thinks it’s the greatest bubble of all time. Does he live in a paper bag or something?

  7. Danno


    I would not go long AGQ here at 165. Sure there could be a wicked (albeit temporary) bounce, but I would wait a couple of weeks and see how things shake out. If this gets carried away AGQ could easily to 120 or lower.

  8. Veronica

    My system has taken it’s first loss today since July 2010, and Gary’s analysis of a D wave seems to be occuring.A loss never felt so good as it confirms to me that this gold bull is not over yet:):):)

  9. Danno


    AGQ could be in for a serious shellacking. But within 18-24 months AGQ could easily be over $600. The hard part will be buying at the D Wave bottom, like Gary said. Who’s going to want AGQ when it’s trading at $110? or $75? (Answer: Me)

  10. Vonda

    Yeah, me too, Danno . . . buying at $100 + or – AGQ.

    And I hear you. AND, I couldn’t keep myself from going long at EOD. Put in an after hours sell order (so I could go take a nap) and lucked out with a three-point profit. LOVE those naps.

    But I do hear you. Will wait, will wait . . .

  11. ALEX

    I just wanted to check in and say…

    Gary- your Puppies posting (toby) of that last article on 321gold, and finacial sense, etc was GREAT TIMING.

    I spent today doing a good deal of juggling, cut some weak holdings, and even day tading to scalp quick profits…all that work (and still hold a strong ‘core’ from Mid June)…but still ended in the red 🙂

    So my thoughts are this from here–

    I want to be truthful …This dip in Miners today caught me by surprise. I was VERY bullish Miners and thought the feds speech would push gold/miners higher.
    So now the charts have changed their overall pattern…and it may take time to see what they are doing.

    Equities like RIC and EXK didnt look so bad, I am expecting higher prices still, but time to repair damage could ( for example) cause a “HANDLE” to form on EXK. A sideways $10 to $12 channel from here?

    but GDX was such large volume that I need to “listen to what its telling me” from here. See how things sell off from here, and see how they are bought back. I expect a bounce soon.

    I am looking at DRV and TZA (after they pullback) and EDZ (after a pullback) if I feel I need to make ‘gains’ on the short side while holding my core position. (hedge a bit).


    best wishes-


  12. ALEX

    To Clarify,

    when I said, “I spent today doing a good deal of juggling, cut some weak holdings, and even day tading to scalp quick profits…all that work (and still hold a strong ‘core’ from Mid June)…but still ended in the red 🙂 “

    Obviously I have been in Miners since Mid June, I am not suddenly in the red…I meant that there was No fighting this market sell today…even day trading etc, the account ended in the red For The Day. 🙂

    The summer gains are good, but now its “trader mode” / preservation ,until this market tells me where it wants to go…

  13. SF Giants Fan


    I was wondering how you were doing. Both you and Poly were very bullish on gold and miners. And Gary was saying the opposite. Both made very good cases. Believe me I was tempted to take a chance on a few miners but better judgment won. I felt it would be smarter to miss profits than take losses.

    You both are smart enough in risk management to avoid any serious damage.

  14. Danno

    SF Giants Fan,

    Silver would probably need to hit about $65 for AGQ to hit $600.

    If this sell off turns into a 2008 style route, then I guess it could take a bit longer than 24 months for silver to reach $65. Maybe 28 months. It’s impossible to say until we see where this bottom winds up.

  15. Danno


    A guy I knew was stuck in line at a hardware store years ago. A woman in front of him was buying a bag of 50 to 100 seeds for $1 or $2. He was bored so he asked her about the seeds. It dawned on him during their conversation that the plants the woman was hoping to grow sold for $30 to $50 EACH at the nursery.

    So the man opened a nursery (and eventually two more) and became a multimillionaire.

    He said that moment in line at the hardware store he had witnessed a ROI that could not be matched by any investment he had ever seen.

  16. NJ

    Hi Gary:

    If this new SPX IT cycle fails (drops below the August low), must all subsequent IT cycles also be LT? Or can cycles alternate between LT and RT for the duration of the Bear Market?

  17. TZ(8155)

    In with a 1x gold futures position. Stop near the low of 1701.

    We didn’t hold the previous low at 1705 and the weakness is surprising, but my stop was below 1701 and it didnt hit before we have started up so I’ll see if we get a rally now. (There were 7000 gold contracts traded when we punched the previous 1705 low).

  18. TZ(8155)

    I have some ‘core’ silver position which isn’t much (I’m still mostly cash here), but the silver drop is STILL mentally destabilizing me from a trading perspective. Almost 20% in a single day?!? I can only imaging people who are fully long. This is definitely a capitulation drop.

    (Actually I don’t have to imagine it. We’ve all be in similar before unfortunately)

  19. Poly

    Some of my trackers are not that far from ICL reading, already! I it’s way too early for one, so I expect some meaningful bounce later next week.

  20. TZ(8155)

    A bounce is still likely in gold somewhere…maybe still in this zone where I don’t have the stomach to hold. But my target is now 1600ish to buy back in. (I don’t think we go lower as gary is speculating, but who knows. Let’s discuss it when we get there).

    Not holding 1705 means we don’t have a triangle congestion (the most common) although maybe something else will form that keeps us around here then resume going up (but that isn’t as likely)

  21. SF Giants Fan


    Thank you sir.

    My first experience seeing the D wave (PUKE) and you are right. There is no #%€£¥ing way I could hold thru this.

    Everything on my list is RED except ZSL and DZZ.

  22. Danno

    ^ Once you’ve been an options trader and blown out your account several times, holding through a paper loss is a piece of cake. (Especially if you’ve got a good hedge going.)

  23. ALEX

    I wonder if beanie believes you now about the market not quite going straight to da moon immediately…”get ready for the biggest rippin-est bull market ever”

  24. William Wallace

    Gold may find support today on the 75sma (around 1675) on a daily and catch a little bounce back up to the 150sma on a 5 min if anyone wishes to try and make a few bucks on the long side right now.

  25. SF Giants Fan


    It seems from what people have posted here is the only way to be experienced at options trading “Is to blow your account a few times “

    So let me ask you. When you say blow your account, how many zeros are you talking?

  26. Danno

    Oh, how much did I lose buying options before I learned that you should not buy options to speculate? Oh, probably $100,000 spread over a few years. I no longer speculate with options. It’s a fools errand. The only thing I do with options is sell covered calls or buy a small options position to protect a much larger stock position.

  27. Avann

    HAHA … Gary … Basil and Beanie are just a couple of the folks that popped into my head when I woke up this morning 🙂
    Really enjoying my cup of coffee this morning …

  28. Avann

    Basil and Beanie if you’re reading … please don’t think my enjoyment is aimed at your pain … I’m just very happy with Gary’s calls and my ability to listen and wait 🙂

  29. Gary

    You expect a bounce at the daily cycle low. We aren’t there yet. D-Wave’s usually last 6 to 8 weeks. This one is just getting started.

    There will be plenty of countertrend rallies to keep all of the permna-bulls holding on all the way into the bottom, probably in mid November.

  30. MikeStiller

    Do you think the dollar intermediate cycle is 20 weeks in or did we bottom early at 15 weeks and are now on a new intermediate cycle that is on its 5th week?


  31. Gary

    Bottom early. We are at the very beginning of the second daily cycle. There will probably be three or four daily cycles up before this intermediate cycle rolls over into an intermediate degree decline.

  32. Razvan

    this is the last opportunity to get on the gold bull… people only have a change to get in until Sunday evening before the Asian market open and the chinese overwhelm the market with their physical buying…

  33. Danno

    Just wanted to make clear… I WAS an avid options trader for years. I am NO LONGER an options trader. Meaning, I no longer buy options to speculate on price movements. I will SELL covered calls or (maybe) naked puts if I feel there is a low risk opportunity. But I will ONLY buy options if I’m looking for some kind of hedge to protect a much larger stock position. There is no other reason to buy options IMO except for pure greed. I currently own no options. I did sell some covered calls last week on AGQ… and I rather fancy I will be keeping all of THAT income. lol

  34. Shalom Bernanke

    Say it ain’t so, Silverhound! 🙂

    For those that are interested, if things open as they are right now, my accounts will cross into the red on my miners today.

    Haven’t decided if I’ll buy anything today, but I’m leaning that way. However, I do believe that the decline has been severe enough that an Old turkey approach will take some time to pay out.
    With this much damage, we need time to rebuild after we find the bottom. Gary’s 6 weeks D-wave sounds about right, so if I do any buying it will be relatively small and only to stay focused on the side I want to be on longer term.

    Good luck, fellas!

  35. Gary

    That is the mentality that has to be washed out of the sector before gold can put in a D-wave bottom. It has gone up for so long and so far that no one believes there is any downside risk. So they buy thinking that fundamentals are going to support the asset class.

    This has nothing to do with fundamentals, this has to do with human emotions. This is a regression to the mean profit-taking event that as the ball gets rolling down the hill will feed on itself and until humans do what they always do, take things to extremes.

    History has shown those extremes occur when 50 to 62% of the previous C-wave advance is retraced.

    The intermediate degree bottom isn’t due until November. It should come with gold somewhere between 1300 and $1400. That is the kind of devastating selloff that will wash all of the bullish sentiment out of the sector and allow for a violent A-wave advance.

  36. Shalom Bernanke

    Not really, I just want out of confetti for the next several years. I’ve only bought pullbacks, and not all of them.

    A bull thinks things are going up, while I think metals and miners will likely go lower or sideways for some time, before going up. I suppose it depends on one’s expected time frame for a trade, just like I didn’t sell when several of my positions were up 20-40%, I knew I’d likely stay in the trade to at least Feb.

    Gotta buy ’em sometime, unless one wants to be sitting in fiat as it devalues. 🙂

  37. St. Deluise

    added 3/3 long QQQ position. i’ll spare everyone the same chart i’ve been posting. despite what the price is doing there is more demand than supply.

    gold should bounce too but not touching that one with a 10 foot pole.

    g’day and good luck everyone

  38. Shalom Bernanke

    And as Feb rolled around, I’d still only trim a little if I was sitting on doubles all over the place.

    With all the Great Depression talk I’m seeing, one only has to look at what happened to everything, including miners, during the Great Depression. It might be the only place to preserve wealth, if it works at all and I’m able to stay focused on the plan. We’ll see.

  39. Gary

    During the depression gold didn’t rise until the government debased the currency.

    Bernake has clearly stopped printing …for now. Has long as that continues the massive deflationary forces lose in the world will continue to chew away at all asset classes, except the dollar and apparently treasuries.

  40. Shalom Bernanke

    I’m just sharing my trade, not making a prediction that my holdings rally immediately.

    I agree that lower prices look likely, I just prefer to be out of some confetti, the rest of my fiat is going up like everybody else’s. 🙂

  41. St. Deluise

    the fed’s dollar swap program is still running strong. that one flies under a lot of people’s radar.

    regardless the dollar could and probably will rally for a long while relative to the euro and yen. the question for me is, does it still matter? is 2011 really 2008 again?

    long term i am of the belief that all assets will rise. PMs getting sold off simply because there are expensive relative to anything else, like stocks. this will flip again eventually.

  42. Natanarchist

    The new American business model, brought to you by a politician who has never run a business. First find an industry that is economically not feasible, but appeals to the emotions with no regard to logic, reason or common sense. Tell that politician you can create x number of jobs(the larger the number, the better). Secure large amounts of taxpayer dollars. If you are questioned before giving the money, use simple bullying tactics to silence your critics. Burn through the cash,but only after securing your financial future and then close the business. Finally, when be asked to explain yourself, take the 5 th. Swell

  43. Greenspansconscience

    I have nothing but disgust with Obama, but please, he did not invent American style crony capitalism (aka, fascism).

    “I’ve abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system.”

    lol. What a joke.

  44. Hack

    If the fund managers don’t come in around $1670 then it looks like free air below… Fidelity has GLD and SLV as their top buys for the day but GLD is a top sell as well. This means indecision, which is not good…

  45. basil

    Some folks here need a reality check.

    I sold silver at $48 (see my blog posts) after holding AGQ starting early September 2010. Btw, I didn’t buy into miners during that run and gave here explanations why (see my blog posts); I then suggested in May that silver would bottom out in the low 30s (see my blog posts). I then suggested that the last chance to buy back into silver was when it was in the mid thirties and in that same post I said that buying it in low forties will be a mistake that I am sure some late comers will make (see my blog posts). Silver did in fact go into the low to mid forties, which is where I sold. I have been out of all my PM positions (with exception of physical silver) long before this current correction started. My physical I will keep until silver reaches my target for this bull.
    Of course, I regret having sold my long position in DGP in the upper forties as per Gary’s recommendation, thereby missing an over 60% run up, but I did not go back into gold once I was out and missed the train; I just went into silver for a short term trade from mid thirties to low forties (as per my blog posts).
    No, my assumption was not that PMs would just run to the moon (who would be stupid enough to believe that?), and I certainly never posted such a nonsense here. What I did is that I simply pointed out the bad trades on this blog over the course of a very long summer, and the annoying ‘know it all’ attitude that came with it; and, of course, the missed trade on gold over the past 3.5 months, which was the only bad trade I made this year. Would love to know who of those here shouting the loudest, matches my performance. I think, not so many.
    And btw, just as a footnote, DGP would have to fall another 25% from here to get to where Gary suggested to sell it in early summer, just FYI.

    Also, I posted here in May that I believe silver will bottom out at $31. In the same series of posts I suggested that silver might even run a short term dip to $28 (max downside). So why would I now believe that silver will drop to $21, any more than I didn’t believe it in May?

  46. Sleeper


    >”If I’m lucky, my Fiat will be going up for sale in a couple months :)”

    Touche`! Depending on how Italy fares, maybe you can trade your Fiat for a Ferrari!

  47. Gary

    LOL do you really think anyone believes that load of BS?

    You were touting the virtues of Old Turkey all the way up and rubbing it in our face that we were missing the move.

    You just got caught but won’t admit it.

    Please just go away. No one takes you seriously anymore.

  48. intelliblue2000

    Basil – I personally didn’t think Gary has an annoying attitude, I just think that he believes in what he knows, and is confident. If he is not confident, how would we, the subscribers feel?

  49. William Wallace

    Angry Hippie,

    Sorry I missed your post yesterday…I plan on taking off the SQQQ near the DCL and put on the TQQQ, how long I hold the TQ’s im not sure yet…im still not completely discounting the possibility of a bear market rally being spawned out of this DCL.

  50. Silverhound


    By my count we are in the 5th of 5 waves down. Once this bottoms we “should” move into an a,b,c corrective wave up which should be the Bear rally you are suggesting.

    It’s just a road map but it seems to fit the price action so far.

    Picking the bottom is the trick….

  51. William Wallace


    The 75sma did act as support, but Gold just broke below the 10sma support on a 5 min, I should say back below the 10sma after breaking above it (which supports a move higher into days end), which usually leads to a new low and breach of previous support.

  52. William Wallace

    So if the long was put on at 1675, it would have been taken off at a break of the 10sma support at around 1678 because of the indication that the move higher will not follow through. Its still a small gain.

  53. coolkevs

    DeMark update from Kevin Depew
    Gold – on Bar 8 of 9 of a Daily Setup which will record on Monday – good for a 1-4 day relief rally next week!
    Silver – beaten with a stick today! DAILY, we are on Bar 5 down of 13 for a Buy. The sell was recorded at the recent high, and was soon after confirmed bearish price flip (close below the close 4 bars earlier). WEEKLY made it to bar 12 of 13 but didn’t get there – there had already been quite a few 13’s already that didn’t show any effect. WEEKLY support down at 27.53. MONTHLY – had a Sequential 13 in May where Depew started selling his silver. Support for MONTHLY all the way down at 17.06!
    SP made it through Bar 11 of DAILY BUY – today will record 12. But Depew is still expecting a new low somewhere between 1047 and 1076 (these are pit futures)
    WEEKLY Crude oil could qualify a downside break of 89.25 if the open on Monday is lower and one tick below the open. Target down is in the low 70’s. So, that would be good for the consumer, eh?

  54. wolf33

    who gives a rip!

    So now ur getting into just deleting my posts? Go check my record of old posts to see what I said and did. That is what proves my points and exposes ur assumptions about me as completely wrong.


  55. marksomething


    You are not telling the truth

    GO and create your own blog and instead of disturbing the peace here.

    your anger is not the result of actions here, your anger is within you. stop projecting your anger onto others. Bad form man, bad form.

  56. Poly

    I say it’s about to print a DCL, shortly. Relief and false hope will come to those seeking it.

    On the flip side for those traders, probably a great very short term trade right here, something like NUGT, but you’ve got to have some “#@$#!” and be tight.

  57. Blindweb

    I lost 1/3rd of my profit since July. Sold 2/3rds of my position this morning. Rolled some GDX options out to January. May try to catch a counter trend rally before we hit $1600.

  58. Brian

    7 September, basil says…

    “If that D wave will never happen you just lost your positions in both silver and gold and will have to buy back much higher. Of course, there will be corrections to come, but 21 in silver and 1200 or whatever in gold – that’s Prechter talk.”

  59. St. Deluise

    textbook hornswaggling by the operators this month.

    euro panic? SELL STOCKS BUY GOLD! global markets may crash! six sigma event something or other!

    guess who’s on the other side of those trades.

    and obama hasn’t even announced the 4% mortgage refi package yet- you know, the reason for the operation twist or whatever. hate to sound like beanie but immediate term that’ll take a lot of pressure off the banks and a lot of new ipad money into people’s pockets.

  60. St. Deluise

    the 233 day in /gc is $1500 even.

    (200 day about 1525)

    i wouldn’t start looking for a bottom until it’s at least CLOSE to there. got another hundo to dropo at least.

  61. Dan

    Just saw $31 on silver….if were entering a deflationary period, the markets will continue to fall so I don’t see how PMs could be bottoming right here, right now

    Theyve only been dropping for two days and now that’s it? They go right back up? Possible, but find it hard to believe.

  62. TZ(8155)


    >The intermediate degree bottom isn’t due until November. It should come with gold somewhere between 1300 and $1400.

    By saying that you are breaking the rule (so far true) that no INT low has gone below the previous EXCEPT for the 8yr cycle low.

    Not going below previous INT low on gold would mean we stop 1500-1600 zone.

    Is this rule simply a convenient observation or does it have merit. If it has merit or a believable cause then do your thoughts or the circumstances justify it breaking for this selloff.

    I personally find the holding of each previous low to be convincing.

  63. TZ(8155)

    This is amazing, but next buy point for my ‘catch a bottom or bounce’ approach is actually coming up and might hit today. (on gold). Near 1600.

  64. Gary

    Not long after you originally subscribed you started this rude behavior, and I’m not talking about debating investing, I’m talking about just plain being rude.

    At one point you expressed your desire to cancel your subscription. So I canceled your subscription and gave you a full refund even though you used several months of the subscription.

    Not long after that you resubscribed and promised to behave yourself. Well that lasted all of about one week.

    You apparently have no interest in contributing anything useful to the blog, all you want to do is point out missed calls.

    I have news for you everyone misses calls. It’s the inherent risk in this business, and it’s never going to change. Do you think we are all so stupid that we do not understand that?

    Of course you completely overlook all of the correct calls that have made us much more money than the missed calls.

    I have no idea why you have such a negative outlook on everything, but I’m going to ask you again, please take your negativity somewhere else it’s just not welcome here.

  65. Gary

    might I suggest you wait until gold tags the 200 day moving average. That would be a more likely spot for a significant bounce especially if the dollar still has more upside than just trying to pick numbers out of the air.

    There needs to be an obvious level before enough players will attempt to pick a bottom. You might get it at 1575 but I think it’s more likely at this point to occur at the 200 day moving average.

  66. Razvan

    you guys are not prepared for six sigma event by selling your gold. Even thou you have better odds of getting struck by lightning you can never be too careful!

  67. Gary

    You are making the mistake of thinking that gold will protect you from a crisis. It will not. That was made clear to us in 2008.

    Gold is a hedge against currency debasement and inflation. We are not in an inflationary environment right now. We are in a deflation. That is driving the D-Wave, regression to the mean, profit-taking event.

  68. Gary

    Yes it is. This is what I knew would happen when the D-Wave began. This is what I wanted to avoid even at the expense of missing some of the upside.

    When you’ve been at this business as long as I have you understand what happens when something that looks like it has no downside risk starts to fall.

    All of those multitudes of buyers that thought they were safe start to panic. The panic starts to feed on itself and the selling accelerates. And because human emotions never change the selling goes way beyond fundamentals.

    Like I said a D-Wave is not about fundamentals it’s about human emotions.

  69. TZ(8155)

    Gary, thanks for bounce-buying zone on gold, but I actually think the bounce point is here already (1630ish) if not maybe another $5-10 dollars lower.

  70. Poly


    My commentary is mostly reserved for the markets and don’t care for the politics of the site, but you’ve clearly overstayed your welcome and making a fool of yourself only. Considering it’s an anonymous site, that hard to do 🙂
    Of course Gary doesn’t have that luxury.

  71. Shalom Bernanke

    SB is taking a beating. Sb doesn’t like it.

    I’m hoping if I start referring to myself in the third person like some bigshots, I might get a respite from the whoopin’ I’m taking. lol

    I’m starting to think $26/oz for phys silver I paid the other day was overpriced! 🙂

    Good luck fellas, stick with your plan.

  72. intelliblue2000

    Gary – at the rate Gold is falling, the D-wave bottom may not be too fall away 🙂 May even arrive before mid to late November.

    So I guess this is how D-wave feels like? It feels like Armageddon.

  73. Elaine

    At what point would AGQ decouple from silver? If silver were theoretically to hit $21, at the current ratio AGQ would go down another $80 to $35, is that realistic?

    Just curious.

  74. Gary

    Make no mistake this is a long way from being over. But gold will have a very convincing bounce out of the next daily cycle low that will draw many people back in before it rolls over into one more leg down.

  75. St. Deluise

    meanwhile when everyone is already looking for a gold entry again stocks are breaking out.

    the buy volume from the plunge wednesday has already almost been filled. perhaps by the EOD.

    luckily for me and the other 87 people worldwide who are long equity no one will ever notice.

  76. TZ(8155)

    >Looks to me that was it @ $1,631, might be a good place for your type of action

    I am/was expecting lower and have not purchased yet. Might have missed a bounce trade.

  77. intelliblue2000

    Gary – a while back, you wrote that after the 2012 4-year cycle low in stocks (in late 2012), you think the biotechnology will lead the climb in stocks. Can you share with us the reasoning? If it is of premium content, I can ask again in the premium website.

    Thanks in advance.

  78. Gary

    None of those declines were a D-Wave. D-Wave’s almost always test and often drop below the 200 day moving average.

    The magnitude and duration of the C wave virtually guarantee a D-Wave of similar magnitude. The last translation of this intermediate cycle confirms this.

    I think gold will probably be lucky if they can get away with only a 50% retracement.

  79. Gary

    I just think the next new paradigm shift in the world will come from the biotech industry. Something similar to the personal computer and the Internet of the 80s and 90s.

  80. SF Giants Fan

    Good move on the ZSL….

    Danno said…
    Monday morning at the open I adjusted my silver hedge from:

    AGQ 200
    ZSL 600


    AGQ 200
    ZSL 1500

    The goal is to take advantage of any breakdown in silver (which is looking very possible if not probable) while keeping a healthy long position just in case silver unexpectedly explodes to the upside. It may not be a perfect plan, but I’m comfortable with it.

    Good luck all.

  81. Dan

    Curious if anyone buying to play this bounce in PMs? Bounce in silver will probably be huge. Not my type of game but curious.

  82. Gary

    The only reason to buy now in either precious metals or stocks is if you think the dollar has put in its daily cycle top after only five days.

    That seems very unlikely in a cyclical bull market, and one that is only at the very beginning of a second daily cycle.

    We probably still have one or two more weeks of this, although that doesn’t mean we can’t have an up day occasionally.

  83. William Wallace


    I know those were just IT lows… and not D-waves, I was just wondering what contitutes this a D-wave other than the fact that gold was so stretched above the 200. Im thinking maybe the possibility of another IT low and gold just continuing to move on.

  84. ver


    Isn’t it possible that the dollar is putting in a daily cycle top now (vs. bottoming last week)? I know the timing and the move over the last few days suggests the low was put in already, but unlike previous daily cycle lows the 5-day RSI didn’t get anywhere near oversold. The current dollar action resembles the big move out of the May daily cycle low, with an initial move up, pullback, new highs, and then a clearer move into a low with a 5-day RSI in oversold territory.

  85. gold silver troll

    thanks Gary…

    one thing I know is that you have a knack for calling intermediate bottoms (been a sub since aug 2010)..

    I also know that I was shit scared every time you called a bottom and would only go in at 10% and then regret it(when you went in at 130% with AGQ).

    I believe you when you say that I won’t be able to pull the trigger at the next intermediate bottom..

    i’ve done it three times…maybe I can control my emotions better this time – we’ll see

  86. Driver

    I was reading a magazine in a scanning center waiting to get my ***** scanned, and I noticed a magazine with a guy on the cover, Rothberg or something like that. He had invented a machine that one could buy that would determine your DNA. For home use if you wanted to put out the money. There will be many innovative things coming out of that space, I’m sure.

  87. Glenn

    Got out of gold at 1705 stop…..should have listened to Gary’s warnings…could have saved some bucks…boy…got ugly fast….silver getting killed…
    But I’m ahead for this cycle so I can’t complain

  88. Hack

    MrMiyagi – you are correct. I have done extensive work in the Biotech field. It takes 8 years to train a scientist and another 2 to complete post-doc / intern. Who in their right mind will go to school for 10 years to make a living? Not many. It’s such a small field that scientists from different companies know each other quite well. Plus it takes 15-20 years to advance a drug into Phase IV. And then the company sweats bullets to see if insurance companies will cover the therapy and then see if it is widely accepted. And don’t get me started on the FDA…

  89. Gary

    And it took many years of schooling for people to understand computers and the Internet, yet they did it. It’s not just researchers that are going to get jobs it’s a whole support staff for a new industry.

    And those two inventions created incredible productivity worldwide and millions upon millions of new jobs.

  90. Gary

    Anything is possible. However, anything doesn’t fall in the normal timing band for a daily or intermediate cycle.

    While it is true there are stretched and shorten cycles from time to time you can’t trade that way. You have to assume that every cycle is going to fall in the normal timing band because the majority do.

  91. Avann

    Gary … no kidding … I’m an old school IT guy who actually learned to code in assembler … yeah that was fun … NOT!
    Most of the class dropped out because they could not handle it.
    Now it’s amazing what you can do with a few lines of code … and pretty much anyone with half a brain can put up a website.
    If the advances in biotech are even remotely close …

  92. Hack

    There are about 3K “marketable” genes out there so it is like a gold rush to get there first. Male pattern baldness and obesity therapy will make a small killing. Small because it would not be covered by insurance. The user will have to be able to shell out $10k – 30k per year for such therapy. Yes, gene therapy is EXTREMELY expensive. And gene therapy does not cure anything, it just makes it more managable to live with a disease and/or extend the patients life.

  93. Avann

    Hack, if you look at all the money folks waste today on baldness and fad diets I’d say there’s a ton of money to be made.
    Sadly, more people are concerned about how they look than how they feel.

  94. Éamonn

    Hack, with GT, if you could integrate the new & correctly functioning gene allele at the correct location into the host chromosome to replace the faulty allele, then it would be a permanent fix. How to do this, and positioning the new allele so that it replaces the defective one, and does not integrate at random into the host chromosome is the big technological challenge.
    Even if this technological breakthrough were made, it would be a medical advance, not an industrial one. So I cannot see, myself, how biotech could bring about a new age of wealth & capital creation

  95. Joseph Lemma


    I don’t think that’s correct. People worry too much about how they feel. Just look at the amount of antidepressants kids take these days.

    I’ve been taking since I was a little kid until recently, when a doctor told me that I have no psychological disorders, just a benign heart condition that makes certain hormones go awry. I stopped and feel much better now.

  96. Hack

    Eamonn, absolutely correct. It sounds like you a a scientist! And just to elaborate on the prerequisites to work in Biotech. CEO’s are usually folks who have discovered a blockbuster drug or a new method that advances bio-science years. We’re not talking about Meg Whitman, with all due respect. A COO will have an MBA and a PhD. Lawyers will have a JD and a PhD in Biochemistry. The minimum requirement for an associate scientist is a Masters. A BS will only get you a low level job without a much chance for advancement. But anyone with a GED can screw a computer together with the possibility of moving into a supervisory position.

  97. Éamonn

    Hack, my insider spies tell me that drug discovery and development is beginning the move to India & China… Maybe Europe & the USA will end up the low wage low tech stuff

  98. Dan

    During the the bubble it seems all the biggest companies started in basements and most successful companies were started by teenagers tuning them into multimillionaires at very early ages…that just cant happen in biotech. Explosive growth is impossible. There’s so many barriers to entry including extensive education requirements, huge capital requirements, never-ending regulations that only specialists understand etc etc.

  99. David


    I would be interested in the chart you sent (are sending) to WW. Can you post it, or can I post my email?

    Thanks, Jenny

  100. Hack

    Eamonn, That started years ago, no secret. We had an office in Taiwan and mainland China. However the best scientists come to America, a brain drain. The American system rewards discovery and inventions, not so overseas with the exception of Europe. Imagine making 200k here vs. 50k in China…

  101. Romeo Bravo

    Just to think of bio-tech as “drug” companies is way to simplistic. Just like to think “computer” company means, IBM was way to simplistic.

    How about a firm that analyses DNA data (23andme?) Or a firm that provides lab services Any industry has thousands if not tens of thousands of other companies that exist in the eco-system.

  102. Gary

    Everyone is erroneously assuming that the only jobs will be for highly educated biotech scientists.

    Asked yourself how many highly educated researchers built the iPad? But how many people does Apple employee to manufacture, market, and sell the iPad?

    Thousands and thousands.

  103. Elaine

    Biotech will require incredible amounts of … wait for it … cleanrooms. Cleanrooms and wafer fabs will drive a ton of new construction jobs. Don’t need a PhD for that.

  104. diana

    Razvan (I think),

    I looked at investopedia for “six sigma event” and it said it was related to manufacturing. Could you provide a better explanation, please? Thank you!

  105. Aaron

    Are you guys serious? comparing computers to biotech? Its health, its a trust issue, and HUGE regulations to overcome. People dont trust drugs made abroad, and government regulations would choke off any boom-ish rise.
    Biotech may just happen to be the next big thing, but to compare it to the internet/computers is simply unfair.

  106. Romeo Bravo

    Aaron, when the computer industry (Apple, Sun Micro, Intel, etc.) where just getting started nobody outside a few scientists had heard of the internet. And now guess what?

    Any rapidly growing industry expands way, way beyond the original core.

  107. Aaron

    Romeo, the PC industry is something that required no regulations, biotech will be very heavily regulated and monitored. All Im saying, is that the barriers to going exponential are huge in biotech versus the PC.

  108. intelliblue2000

    Gary – I read the terminology document again and still have this question – how do you identify a D-wave vs say a counter trend rally in Gold? Do you look for at least 50% correct from the high of the C-save (about $1,900) or does it have to coincide with the intermediate cycle low?

    Thanks in advance.

  109. Razvan

    Hi Diana,
    from what i understood a six sigma event is an event that has a probability of occuring which is 6 standard deviations from the norm. Six standard deviations means a 0.00034% chance of hapenning that is 3.4 out of a million chance of happening while getting struck by lightning has odds of 2 out of a million. 🙂

  110. Avann

    Nice debate … remember all the quotes … Can’t remember who said it.

    Something about the idea of every household requiring a computer being preposterous … yeah right!

    Or what about no PC will ever need more than 64k ram …

    or modems will never be able to transfer data faster then 96K

    or storing 10,000 songs on a piece of plastic the size of a quarter …

    anyway … I get it … biotech = very smart people

    But I also think in it’s early stages so did computers

    Eventually all those smart people make it easy for the rest of us idiots to benefit from it.

  111. Bobby D

    Hey Gary,

    I’m new to Smart Money Tracker and just want to say thanks! That takes some stones to stay away from gld when it was climbing to a top around 1900 and now were somewhere around 1650! BTW when you’re climbing watch out for snakes, they like hiding in rocks! Were going to need you insight next year. :))

  112. intelliblue2000

    Diana – I used to work in a semiconductor manufacturing place doing analysis. IBM may have started the six sigma thing, it is about some quality control thing. Saying we can’t have more than 6 imperfections for 10,000 widgets that we produce. It is something from the early 90s lean manufacturing era.

  113. jeff

    Razvan. That also mean there is a 3.4 million chance that the six sigma does not occur. At any rate, how much of your portfolio are you speculating for this one in 3.4 million chance event?

  114. High 5

    The profit potential of biogenetics is many times greater than the computer industry. Everyone wants extra life and healthier life. Life is priceless.

    What would an extra 40 years or no inflammation be worth? A cure for baldness or obesity would alone bring untold riches. How about bio energy?

    The profit potential surpasses any industry in history.

  115. Hack

    In order to manufacture biologic material it is in a 100% sterile environment. A biologic manf facility costs about 500M and there is probably only about one or two of these built every five years, world wide.

    Ok so the instrumentation, such as a colony picker costs hundreds of thousands of dollars and takes weeks to months to build. Engineers and master machinists build these,not Joe Blow off of the street. http://www.scirobotics.com/products/pickolo

    So yes there are 10’s of thousands of jobs but again, we are talking about folks that are highly trained and don’t move around that much.

    And I don’t see anything in the near future that will make discovering and manufacturing drugs any easier than it is now. And the FDA makes a habit of saying “maybe” instead of yes or no when approving a drug. That way the FDA scientist doesn’t get in trouble either way, so telling a company to go back and re-do a trial (two years) is not uncommon…

  116. Danno

    Speaking of biotech. There is a prediction (in a book I have mentioned that is praised for the accuracy of its predictions) that seems to suggest that one day in the not too distant future humans will begin to mix with non-humans creating chimeras… and that this will herald the return of a certain being because that is the big no-no that caused another somebody to build a very large craft so that he could be saved while the world was destroyed. Yes, I would say biotech is not going away anytime soon. Many people believe Hollywood attempts to telegraph future events. You might want to check out ‘Splice’.

  117. ver


    Agreed the higher probability scenario is that the dollar cycle bottomed last week. But if stocks and PMs are going to get a bit of relief rally going into next week, which looks like the case, it may line up with the dollar correcting more “fully” into an oversold condition before the next leg up (and down for stocks/PMs).

    The main implications being not to get whipsawed out of positions and/or to add on the dip, which would otherwise look like a failed cycle. Personally I’m hoping the dollar consolidates and perhaps retests the 200 to avoid any more ambiguity but not counting on it.

  118. Blindweb

    Peak Oil and WWIII. I don’t doubt that biotech is the next logical phase to go into, but… I fully expect this depression to end in WWIII. The U.S. has been positioning its forces for a decade getting ready for the resource wars coming. After the destruction of WWIII we’ll be moving to biotech as a survival mechanism. It won’t be a growth industry; It’ll be billions of people trying not to die, without cheap energy.
    The Ecotechnic future is an excellent related book

  119. Haggerty


    You said earlier that Gold will be lucky to get away with a 50% retraction of the C wave. I think it’s possible as this secular bull gets older that it will give back less during these big corrections.

    Either way happy to be watching from the sidelines, can’t wait for the sale on miners at the end of the year.


  120. Danno

    I can’t believe some of you guys are STILL arguing with Gary about gold prices when the man was SPOT ON.

    Just give up and give the man’s knowledge the credit it deserves. He has done his homework.

    Respect Gary’s knowledge and the hard work it represents.

  121. Gary

    Actually that’s not really what history would suggest.

    As we get deeper and deeper into the bull market the swings should become more and more volatile. Remember a D-Wave is just an emotion driven, profit-taking event.

    Human emotions don’t change as bull markets progress. If anything they tend to become more extreme. Which means greater moves above the 200 day moving average at C-wave tops. And more severe declines, probably below the 200 day moving average, at D-Wave bottoms.

  122. Slumdog

    The gold close was merely a short squeeze. It has not left the dynamite triangle’s first bar range.

    What’s next, still 100 points one way or the other. Time ran out.

    I can’t see at this time without a chart. There’s only that hourly dynamite triangle.

    On Monday, there will be panic in the morning, hence the possible 100 pt drop to 1530 range. That’s it though, as the game is now retracement as soon as this last move is in.

    The low of 1400’s will be for later. Now, it’s kill the last stragglers in the AM on Monday, and then watch this gold puppy take off back up. We can easily see 1750.

    And there will be nobody on board!! The longs have been blown out. The short term shorts have covered.

    So, straight up, against that dynamite triangle towards the exhaustion gap is just what the doctor ordered.

    After that, back down to wipe out once and for all, those who go long late in this next fast rise.

    At that point, it will be chop, chop. Go on vacation, ignore this as it’s directionless and all lose unless capable of taking opposing positions at the moments of panic, top and bottom. BBands will help a lot if trading that stuff.

  123. Slumdog

    I’ve been re-reading my own work posted here, repeated below. It was dead on. Yesterday, I kept thinking about it as it materialized.

    I did well in gold, but I’m a large silver holder and dropped more than most earn in long times. I’m going to hold this time, but next time up, I’m gone.

    Trading now will get VERY CHOPPY.
    Expect huge swings. Sorry I can’t without someone else’s charts, see what’s next. Poly’s chart I posted on the 16th is the type of thing I can read when there’s a picture I understand.

    What I posted, immodestly, but humbly:

    “My guess: probably sideways serious chop for a few sessions, like up to 7, and then a sudden drop to 1680, which if it speeds along will drive into the high 14’s to very low 1600’s. An attractive target number would be 1500.

    If the market heads seriously down on Monday, we will know this was a tag of the trigger point, and the severity of the decline will be very real.

    That’s the news from Lake Woebegone.

    September 16, 2011 10:01 PM”

  124. Rob L


    I did reread your stuff from the 16th, and you made some nice crystal-ballesque calls.

    Is your latest call, an ascent to 1750 then back down to 1400 or so, taken from previous experiences?

  125. Danno

    The longer it takes AGQ to fall the higher ZSL will rise.

    If you own ZSL then you want AGQ to drop a % each day, not a big % all at once.

    That is why ZSL’s rise seems to be lagging AGQ’s fall. AGQ simply fell too fast for ZSL to fully benefit.

    And that is why my AGQ hedge made of ZSL shares is not doing better. Waaa! 🙁

    I wonder if AGQ has a few rallies, but keeps trending lower overall if my ZSL hedge will really start to gain in value. Hmm…

  126. Slumdog

    JamesR, with this drop, there is only air above the current price in gold.

    I analogize this to a racer who broke his leg on a pothole. They don’t get that they’re dead. So, they’ll be jumping in as gold rockets back up, after they’re sure it’s a price retracement.

    I trade the futures. I don’t buy any stocks, don’t even have a stock account.

    As I posted recently, I’ll take my own counsel as I trust my understanding of stress events.

    IMO, expect as I posted, a down opening, and then rocket up after a bewildering Elmer Snerd moment of confusion. Nobody will be ready save the sharp traders, and they’ll get axed as soon as it’s up 100 pts into that exhaustion gap.

    I believe the breakaway daily gap, NYPit (which is NYSE, as well), will stay unfilled. It will fill on the next cyclical wave into the 2000 and above range.

    The public is stunned. They’re on the sidelines. So, it’s Hellzapoppin-time.

    As soon as it recovers and heads back down, it will be dangerously choppy. The compulsion to engage, to earn money back, will decimate those who feel the need.

    This is where Gary’s advice is very valuable (besides for his views being exceptional… I’m a subscriber, and that says a lot as I’ve not sub’d to anything for the past 30 years), and that is “stay out”. The gold market will become as he terms it I think the phrase is “volatile”. It’s going to get unbearable to anyone who wants to be a directional trader.

    Today, the gold market moved 5 points in 5 seconds, repeatedly. It should get worse in the days ahead. There are patterns in the DJIA after the 87 crash which are amazing days of monsterous zigzaging in moments, hugely extreme price movements. That’s next for us to witness in gold, I’m thinking in a matter of 2 days, Monday being an OMG, I think I should be “in” day.

    Apologies that I can’t post or show charts; just have a liking for them from decades ago. (Can’t remember names, but I know chart patterns; they’re so much more friendly than humans are.)

  127. Slumdog

    RobL, Gary posted this earlier today. It’s what I see in my own reading of the charts. I am too frightened to believe anyone but myself. But when Gary says the same thing I do, I trust myself more. Gary’s been anticipating the PM drops. I saw the patterns forming. I trust patterns, and Gary added to the probability as I see it.

    IMO, for those who can trust the thinking of someone else, Gary is the most consistently valuable commentator I’ve encountered. I’m here as there are brilliant men posting in this free blog. I’ve never seen anything like this in my nearly 25 years of daily attention to the PM’s and stock index.

    “Gary said…

    Make no mistake this is a long way from being over. But gold will have a very convincing bounce out of the next daily cycle low that will draw many people back in before it rolls over into one more leg down.

    September 23, 2011 10:37 AM”

  128. William Wallace


    You know what’s amazing is that being a futures trader and looking at a daily chart of gold, I have seen this topping pattern countless times trading off a 5 min chart (I visualize it forming as a weighted tree branch with a fruit hanging from the end, then the fruit falling from the branch, which in reality is a $100 or better drop candlestick)…. Its so imbedded in my mind from watching futures hours upon hours day and night that when I see it playing out I could have almost said with 100% certainty that today was going to be the falling fruit candle. This is what I was anticipating when I posted on Tues or weds (as I was watching the branch form for days and beginning to hang heavy) that “gravity was taking hold”. I have a picture in mind of how the pattern will play out from here, it looks pretty close to what you mentioned going forward.

  129. Harry

    Slumdog and/or WW, could either of you post another example of your ‘falling fruit’ candle? I think I know exactly what you’re talking about but…

  130. sasquatmd

    If anyone knows of a good gold mutual fund to be in when Gary calls the A wave I’d love if you could share with me. I can only trade mutual funds in my vanguard simple IRA. If you have a better suggestion that is most welcome also…


  131. NJ

    Danno said: “that one day in the not too distant future humans will begin to mix with non-humans creating chimeras…”

    Jeez….Does that mena Cycles won’t work!! Human Emotions will change!

    Gary, HELP!!! 🙂

  132. ...at ease

    When we get to the D wave bottom and enter the A wave, I am going with a mutual fund that Poly highly recommended: TGLDX.
    Also Fidelity has a fund also: FSAGX that did well for me last fall before I began trading gold.
    However, I like the looks and returns of TGLDX more. Hope that helps.

  133. aklaunch

    Gary’s cycle counts have all came into equilibrium again. Nice to have the dollar pinned down again. Everything else just makes much more sense.

  134. Marcelo


    It’s the first time I ask you a question: What do you think about what this guy Tim Woods say in this article?

    “It seems that the most confusing thing the market could do is to continue to rally”

    Based on the prevailing consensus, the current pessimism actually makes perfect sense. As a rule, the market does what it has to in order to confuse the most people. Ever since the decline into August began, it seems that the consensus has turned rather bearish. In fact, I personally know of no one that genuinely believes a move back above the May 2011 high is possible and maybe it isn’t. But, I do find it very interesting that such bearishness is being seen in conjunction with such inconclusive technical data. As a result, it seems that the most confusing thing the market could do is to continue to rally.

    I have again included the chart of the 1966 to 1974 bear market period below for comparison. The decline into the 1966 low marked the Phase I decline of the 1966 to 1974 secular bear market. This decline appears to be synonymous with the decline into the 2009 low. The rally separating Phase I from Phase II of the 1966 to 1974 bear market carried price up some 26 months into the 1968 top. I continue to believe that the rally out of the March 2009 low is synonymous with the rally into the 1968 top. Once all of the technical factors are in place I look for the fallout to be much the same as was seen following the 1968 top. I realize that the same old message and comparison is not exciting or sexy. But, the message of the market it is what it is as the bear continues to confuse the masses. Once the technical DNA Markers are all in place, the Phase II decline should get very very nasty. In the meantime, it currently appears that a much larger trap is likely being set.

    Reference: Tim Woods

  135. Marcelo


    It’s the first time I ask you a question: What do you think about what this guy Tim Woods say in this article?

    “It seems that the most confusing thing the market could do is to continue to rally”

    Based on the prevailing consensus, the current pessimism actually makes perfect sense. As a rule, the market does what it has to in order to confuse the most people. Ever since the decline into August began, it seems that the consensus has turned rather bearish. In fact, I personally know of no one that genuinely believes a move back above the May 2011 high is possible and maybe it isn’t. But, I do find it very interesting that such bearishness is being seen in conjunction with such inconclusive technical data. As a result, it seems that the most confusing thing the market could do is to continue to rally.

    I have again included the chart of the 1966 to 1974 bear market period below for comparison. The decline into the 1966 low marked the Phase I decline of the 1966 to 1974 secular bear market. This decline appears to be synonymous with the decline into the 2009 low. The rally separating Phase I from Phase II of the 1966 to 1974 bear market carried price up some 26 months into the 1968 top. I continue to believe that the rally out of the March 2009 low is synonymous with the rally into the 1968 top. Once all of the technical factors are in place I look for the fallout to be much the same as was seen following the 1968 top. I realize that the same old message and comparison is not exciting or sexy. But, the message of the market it is what it is as the bear continues to confuse the masses. Once the technical DNA Markers are all in place, the Phase II decline should get very very nasty. In the meantime, it currently appears that a much larger trap is likely being set.

    Reference: Tim Woods

  136. Gary

    This isn’t 1966 it’s 2011. Trying to compare the two is a futile endeavor.

    Tim missed almost the entire bull rally in gold because he to put too much faith in his statistical data instead of just recognizing a bull market.

    Apparently now he doesn’t recognize a bear market either. If I remember right he thinks the secular bear market didn’t start until 2007 because the Dow made a marginal new high.

    Secular bear market began in 2000 and in inflation-adjusted terms the Dow did not make a new high. P/E ratios have been coming down ever since 2000.

    I was originally introduced to cycles by Tim but it seems that most people are not able to make money following his work.

  137. Shawk

    In Tim Wood’s article dated 9-21, he expected the DOW to remain above the August 9th lows, but the August 9th lows were broken on 9-22. So be careful with his assumptions. And Dow Transports also just made a lower low.

    Also, if you like fractals, it’s looks to me more like we could be seeing a 73-74 fractal play out where we test the 2009 lows in last 2012 or early 2013 (4 year cycle low).

    The cool part about the charts from the 60’s in the article is you can clearly see the 4 year cycle lows in 49, 53, 58, 62,66, 70 and 74

  138. Mean Guy

    Gary, Thanks for stating the phrase “It’s 2011” I have been yelling at these CNBC idiots for the past 3 years. This crisis is so much different than a normal downturn.

    These guys will try to compare this economic era to those of the past and it doesn’t hold up. The U.S. and world economies are vastly different than just 20-30 years ago.
    Example is General Motors,where I worked for 30+ years. In 1978 there was 600,000 GM employees. I was laid off in 1980 for 3.5 years, but by 1983 most of us were back to work. We all know what happened to GM and now they have a workforce less than 100000. What I’m saying there are no jobs to come back to.
    From 2000-2007 40% of all jobs created were in the housing sector, those aren’t backing anytime soon. These jobs were created by a massive credit bubble which has burst.
    Now government officials elected and appointed are trying to save the day but the damage is done. The debt taken on by the European and U.S. govt are to great to overcome. Their traditional economies will not recover because their CEO’s have moved all their operations overseas to create max profits using cheap labor.
    Now American leaders want to keep their jobs and average citizens want to keep their entitlements.
    Example my “Tea Party” neighbor who is retired and his Canadian born wife(who never worked a day in this country) both get Medicare and SSI. They both love the defense side of the budget he being a West Point grad. They constantly tell me how my the govt. spends too much.
    I know I’m ranting here on an investment blog, but bottom line is I think Gary has been playing this crisis well and I have been a sub for several months and playing right along with all of you.
    In the end we are betting on the demise of it all, yelling and screaming at the ones bringing it on while secretly we hope it happens. There is some sadness there.

  139. Mean Guy

    That’s my point,we are the government!
    These people all were voted in, I’m saying it doesn’t matter if your left or right. The most conservative still want some of the things government provides.
    Example, Hurricane Irene rips through rural southeast
    N. Carolina destroying millions $ of farmland, here were all these rural farmers on TV looking for govt help. I don’t think they were all left wingers.

  140. JEFFtheFLEA

    We have been the most giving people in the history of the world. If we hade not squandered so much of it, we could cover any natural disaster in the world

    I’m with you though

    Im also on the iPhone because my computer is in for repair, hard to type

  141. JEFFtheFLEA

    I have 2 kids . 2 years ago I didn’t file for their tax credit because I wish their were nooo tax credits. Some foolish news was on tv, and I don’t even remember what it was. But it pissed me off and I simply went back and refilled.
    I wouldn’t mind putting skin in the game if they weren’t making lamp shades out of us.

  142. Mean Guy

    Those tax credits were put in by people trying to get reelected and it works.That why thy’re still in place.
    People want low taxes but also everything else govt gives them.
    80% of Fed Govt is Defense, SSI, Medicare, payment on debt.
    20% is everything else,everything
    National Parks
    and so on.
    Our defense is larger than the next 20 countries combined, almost 50% of the world entire defense spending.
    Try to cut that,oh watch them scream we’re not safe.
    60% of Medicare is spent on the last six months of life.
    Cut that oh death panels
    This will not end pretty.

  143. Danno


    I hope your dad can look down and smile at the new Chevy Camaro SS. That is one of the most bad a$$ production cars ever made by any country.

  144. Le Fou

    Only 140 years left for the “Gold Bubble”! I found this humorous. Maybe you will too.

    The Price of Gold in the Year 2160

    This piece of fun weekend reading is contributed by StatsGuy, an occasional commenter and guest contributor on this blog.

    It’s become quite popular to talk about the price of gold . . . in blogs, the press, at dinner parties. The latest topic of debate is not about the price of gold as a commodity, but about gold as the one and only king money. The basic argument is that 5,000 years of tradition will overwhelm the tyranny of modern government and the fiat printing press. The barbaric relic will defeat socialism, fascism, Obama-ism, and restore liberty to the world, after a terrible economic collapse in which gold-owning visionaries become fabulously wealthy.

    Perhaps they are correct—or perhaps not. I don’t know what will happen in 10 years. However, unless civilization utterly collapses (which is what gold hoarders seem to want), the gold bubble will collapse. And I don’t mean the 10 year “bubble” . . . I mean the 5,000 year bubble.

    Read the rest here:


    Good trading,
    Le Fou

  145. Rob L


    I’m curious how you learned about chart patterns. Are you self-taught by reading books about the subject? If so, what books would you recommend?


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