117 thoughts on “POSSIBLE PORTFOLIO CHANGE

  1. JG

    miners out performing the metal. Bernwakie is going to push stimulas hard come 25 sept. We saw silver have its turn, gold and I think now the hedgies are going to jump on the miners. Action is very positive for miners.

  2. MrMiyagi

    So Gary,
    Should I short gold here? It can’t hold 1900$.

    Just kidding.
    Decent recovery by the markets considering past couple of days in overseas activity as well as the greenback. S&P almost closed this morning’s gap and there’s another one from Friday as well.
    Maybe another bounce?

  3. marksomething

    You are absolutely correct G. My position was 85% rather than 75%.

    If I lose my entire account though, my life style won’t take a hit. It would be harder to resurrect. 😉

    Im out because what I witnessed today. Upward movement was very strong in the morning yet came back down just as hard.

    As you advise, kept my emotions under control and took profit.

    Will now wait and see what happens. Will buy back if a another test comes or will enjoy watching ride for all the others.

    Thanks!!!!!

  4. Visitor

    Shalom – RE: next NXG – I much prefer BRD to VGZ. A little further DD and I’m sure you’ll agree. Hint: look for BRD projections next Q.
    Full disclosure: My first NXG purchase was April 09 at $1.34 – still own it. I held VGZ previously (they couldn’t get their permits together so I sold) and currently own BRD.

  5. ALEX

    Blogger alexi said…

    Alex
    What do you think of GBG? TIA.
    Kai

    September 6, 2011 12:21 PM

    ALEXI

    I think GBG looks fine(but I dont own it), and if you own it and were looking at todays sell off (6%)…normally that would be a little bothersome, but when I look at GBG–it seems typical for it(see arrows) ..yet it has turned around and recovered quickly.

    I would watch the 20sma on this one.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/HGsXbg7xAZ

    hope that was helpful

  6. ALEX

    ROBL

    No, I believe this move is REAL, since Many of the MINERS charts are breaking out to new highs with volume and many others are setup beautifully.

    AT this point , I believe we see a lot of accumulating . For my equities I noticed last summer many ran up along their 20sma consistently bouncing off of it…so I would expect maybe the same (but once it really gets going, maybe the 9sma 🙂

    This was SSRI last summer for example ( I drew this Friday- it totally ignored what I said today 🙂

    http://www.screencast.com/t/OAQFrEIvF

  7. Rob L.

    Alex,

    I do remember you calling the bottom in miners last summer.
    Do you remember what the catalyst was for your bottom call last summer?

  8. Razvan

    Russell,
    Obama’s telepromtern writer has recently quit his job to go into comedy. Hopefully the new one will be more market positive… lets keep our fingers crossed!

  9. ALEX

    RobL

    Sorry, hard to say really -Kind of a lot of different things , its a process. I used MAny ‘indicators'(I took a Tech Analysis class in 2001 and then self taught the hard way (losses).

    XRA broke out really nicely today JAYHAWK sent me a great chart …Jay , you should post that here!

  10. ALEX

    Thank you David

    and thx for the laugh this wkend, I literally cracked up when you wrote

    Blogger David said…

    Beanie, great post.

    Wait, did I just type that? 😉

    September 4, 2011 8:35 PM

    good posts by many on here, everyones contributions are helpful.

  11. Slumdog

    Greek Lesson 9-6:

    GC dropped into Monday’s day over day exhaustion gap. Spot 1879-85.

    Just as I posted, the market last night waited for the last ones to get long and then slammed everyone, all the newbies.

    The market dropped within points of the top of the breakaway gap, again day over day. That gap is 1837-58 spot.

    So, I expect another clean their clocks slam into that which will feel like total capitulation.

    My hunch is that the market will drop into the gap most of the way, and then scream back up, creating the Big W. I expect this within 2 days, if what I am hunching is true.

    The buying opportunity is at 1845-50. That will drive all the indicators I watch to their low, making it a low risk re-entry point.

    I don’t think this is a D wave as we’ve not yet visited 1950 to 2150, my target number of high probability.

    At the 1850 range, I’ll be watching the 1 and 5 min charts to show me exhaustion.

    Greek from a Latin…

  12. Éamonn

    Shalom Bernanke, I asked you recently the content of your miners portfolio. You mentioned you had : EXK SVM UXG GPL NGD AUY IAG
    Has anything changed? I’m thinking of loading up. Thank you

  13. Slumdog

    Mitch has been right about gold and bonds for years.

    I spoke with him when gold was at $600 and we debated inflation/deflation at the time. We agreed on gold and disagreed on bonds. He was right on the bonds, too.

    When he took his focus off the economy and went on a tangent to chase after unions, I left his board.

    I don’t think he gives a hoot about his readers being amateurs. He’s talking to himself and with himself about what he sees is happening. He’s committed to his truth. When it comes to a good insight, he’s not a flash in the pan guy.

  14. Slumdog

    Joseph, you’re a newbie and he’s not rambling. I’m assuming you just don’t have perspective that you’d comment as you did. No biggie. At school, I think you’d do well to study economic history which of course won’t be offered.

  15. David

    Just got a text message from my mom.

    “Cramer says gold is mandatory.

    Time to buy?”

    Mind you, she was unwilling to buy from $275 to $1600.

  16. Veronica

    Slumdog, I agree that it doesn’t look like a D wave has started, and I think the 9 day displaced average should give support, at least on a closing basis.It’s down a bit further then your target and lines up with Gary’s ascending triangle possibilty.It would also line up with a 50% retracement of this current rally.

  17. wolf33

    always knew this time would come.

    internals—

    pm stocks look very good

    gold and silver not bad

    broads—ugly especially financials

    spx resistance 1173 or maybe starts negative.

    I would follow GARY–not hocus pocus stuff.
    besides they will want market up for debates and BO

  18. RJ

    Does it make sense that China rips the US for “manipulating” gold but then has their own form of margin hikes?

    If they wanted to truly “screw” the US over and end the “manipulation game” then why wouldn’t they want all of their citizens to buy gold cheaply and extremely leveraged hand over fist?

    It’s because they are just as involved, isn’t it?

  19. Beanie

    Are you folks ready for the plunge in gold and spike up in equities? Well, are ya? Get ready for Obama’s game changing jobs teleprompter talk!

  20. Gary

    Beanie,
    We cut back on miners this afternoon and will buy the Q’s tomorrow if a swing forms.

    As I’ve been saying I think the bear market rally still has further to go, I just don’t know if gold and miners will follow or correct, thus the trimming of mining positions today.

  21. jeff

    RJ,
    This is what Japanese exPM said when the US “feared” Japan’s economic might during the 90s like some fear that of China now. I think it holds for China, as long as the US does not fight the China peg, they won’t screw over the cozy relationship.

    “I hope the U.S. will engage in efforts and in cooperation to maintain exchange stability so we will not succumb to the temptation to sell off treasury bills and switch our funds to gold.”

  22. Beanie

    Gold and miners are a joke, Tulipmania ponzi type of joke.

    The coming green energy bull market makes more sense and will be bigger.

    and by the way, we’re still in a bull market with a recent 20% correction.

  23. Gary

    Green energy is a fairy tale, at least for the next few years and we most certainly are in a bear market.

    Face it you are caught again. You’ve now made the same mistake twice. You are going to get your chance to exit with most of your profits and you are going to miss it just like you did in 07/08.

    Perma views are just bad for ones portfolio. Either bull or bear.

  24. Beksachi

    Gold just tanked 30$

    Did you all read the Ben Davies article today on king world news? How gold tanked 50$ 5 minutes before the Swiss announcement….fishy fishy….

    More gold smackdown before it rockets up later???!

  25. Gary

    Folks, we knew that gold was at least going to have to consolidate. It’s way too stretched above the 200 day moving average to correct for two days and continue higher. That was never an option.

    So don’t get all wrapped up in conspiracy theory nonsense.

    If the miners can hold up well that would be a signal that gold will probably consolidate. However if the miners break down and gold drops below $1706, then we are almost certainly caught in a D-Wave decline and the 2B reversal is/was significant.

    We will just have to play the waiting game and see how this plays out.

  26. David

    Beanie, chill.

    Gold is an asset class, like bonds or other commodities.

    Your tragic flaw as an investor is that you think this is a team sport — bulls vs bears, stocks vs gold.

    Sophisticated investors don’t see the world this way. There are times to be bullish and times to be bearish. You can own more than one asset class in your lifetime.

  27. marksomething

    gary wrote:

    If the miners can hold up well that would be a signal that gold will probably consolidate. However if the miners break down and gold drops below $1706, then we are almost certainly caught in a D-Wave decline and the 2B reversal is/was significant.

    6 or 7 post up from this one

  28. St. Deluise

    first warning sign was when gold sold off on the CHF assassination.

    the strength in equities didn’t help.

    nor the ongoing dollar blast off.

    too many people set too obvious a stop and blammo. perfectly rational explanation.

    i don’t know how much further gold will fall but i would bet my last nickel it’s going to test that wick first. stay frosty this AM gang.

  29. Danno

    If there is going to be a 2008 style sell off in silver it will most likely begin within the next 10-15 trading days IMO. The trigger could be a titanic dollar rally fueled by panic in Europe. The talking heads are telling us that is about to happen. Whether it will or not…

  30. NJ

    Veronica-

    I belive your system went to a buy @ around 1861. Has the stop been hit over night? Or is your system yet to put a stop?

    Appreciate your inputs!

  31. Danno

    JL,
    A panic can trigger anything. Take a good hard look at mid August 2008. Stocks were oversold then too. But they went a LOT lower.

  32. Danno

    I wasn’t saying there WILL be a 2008 style sell off. I meant if there is one in silver it may begin within the next 10-15 trading days… or it probably will not happen at all.

  33. Danno

    Dollar cannot rally? Pull up a 5 year $USD chart on StockCharts.com

    Compare two periods:
    May – Sept 2008
    May – Sept 2011

    Look familiar?

  34. Veronica

    NJ,the stop has been activated but is lower so not relevant yet.I have stressed that after having 8 straight winners it is overdue for some losers so keep that in mind.MACD on gold is forming a bearish divergence and was not able to cross over on the latest move to new highs.

  35. Tracy

    Gary

    What can be short term and long term consequences for PM’s if Obama Succeeds in getting $300 Billion Jobs Package approved.

    Thanks
    Tracy

  36. Gary

    Tracy,
    It doesn’t work that way. If gold is due to drop down into a D-wave it will be because it got too stretched above the 200 DMA and a profit taking, regression to the mean event has started. Human emotions will drive that to completion despite fundamentals.

    We just need to watch $1706 for a violation. As long as that holds then this should just be a consolidation.

  37. ALEX

    FWIW

    While also expecting the MKT bounce-I will be watching the GDX as it nears the bottom of this channel , which is around the 20sma also

    http://www.screencast.com/t/r4gx4mXqbGGa

    Right now I think a very Large % of Miners charts are bullish longer term and set up nicely. You have to expect pullbacks. for ex: RIC

    I posted this Friday expecting the pullback to $10 area

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZPlhqHp6

    http://www.screencast.com/t/nEBdL0ZK9

    keeping in mind that during last yrs Run…most mining stocks pulled back to tag the 20sma. this is SSRI as it more than doubled (but had pullbacks along the way

    http://www.screencast.com/t/OAQFrEIvF

    I posted NG to show that a break ABOVE this downtrend line would be bullish. A close above $11 would do it.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/RyRay5oX

    Yesterday closed above $11 , so in the next few days…atch for a RETEST of that line…or will it fall back inside the channel ??

    good day all

  38. Tracy

    Thanks Gary

    Would it be wise to wait and see whether Gold Violates $1706 or one can make small buys just in case Gold make a U-Turn again.

    Thanks

  39. Gary

    One can do anything they want, but calculate what your risk is if $1706 is taken out and you have to sell for a loss. I’m comfortable with a 25% position but I think I will recognize trouble long before the miners take out 560 and sell for a much smaller loss on the position. Plus I have a small profit on the 50% position I sold yesterday to offset that potential loss a bit.

  40. Shalom Bernanke

    Alex,

    Thanks for the charts as always. I’m staying with the same plan, looking to add into weakness. Ideally, I’d like to see the $HUI pull back below the breakout level (over the next week) to add a significant chunk of capital.

    Time to be patient. 🙂

  41. ALEX

    S.B.

    agree…SO FAR its like the markets are just taking turns. SPX goes up for a few days, Miners and Gold corrects and then they change roles.

    I would be buying weakness too , if conditions remain right and the HUI could start forming a channel with a pullback to the 20sma / break out area too.

    I’ll be gone for the morning, best wishes trading guys!

  42. Moneyman

    Slumdog

    Nice analysis from you lately..

    So you think 1828 will hold and we will not go lower..?

    Sold my silver but still holding some gold here..

    And ofc long the stockmarket at this point.

    Good luck!

  43. Aaron

    SF Giants, despite all the media attention that the China futures market/gold is getting, its volume is incredibly small and irrelevant.
    Gold though is due for a margin increase, the margins are simply too low as they stand right now.

  44. St. Deluise

    “big money” could care less if they raise futures margins. the only people who care about that are “blog money”.

    with the new low in /gc just now my system target is pointing to 1713.5.

    the amount of money that left during the first plunge, as i wrote then, is pointing to the high 1500’s.

    the 233 day SMA is currently at 1482.

    still long UUP calls and GLD puts, probably going to call it a day early lest i do something stupid.

    stocks look like they’re capable of new bounce highs. GDX still looks healthy considering.

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