299 thoughts on “comment cleaner

  1. Speedy

    Do what I do. Trade in and out with every engulfing candle. Odds are overwhelmingly on your side. In the mean time, I keep preaching how there is going to be a depression for the 10th and 11th time.

  2. kmisak

    big puulback in VIX this morning, though one thing I have learned is to not put a lot of confidence in early morning knee jerk reactions to news…

  3. kmisak

    Speedy, I expect you were referring to VIX. I bought more HVU.T at $10.25 this morning for this exact reason. if I’m right, it’ll be a great trade; if wrong, could it really go much lower than $9? methinks not (but what do I know, really)

  4. MrMiyagi

    WW,
    To answer your question from last night, no not trading here, can’t do anything on the move, too uncontrollable although I could set up stop losses and such…

  5. ess

    Sophia,

    Could I message you directly please? Do you have a twitter account so I can send a direct message to you?

    Thanks

    ess

  6. Quy

    WW,

    I loaded up on the SLV puts today too. I’ve been keeping track of the put/call volume and it’s at record low for the past 6 months. Too much complacency out there. If my indicator is wrong, I hope yours will save me πŸ™‚

  7. ALEX

    Last Week I got a couple emails telling me that “things can’t keep going up…we may get another flash crash this thing is so extended”.

    TRUE…could happen, but also…

    I wanted to show others …”This is what could happen too, it did before.”
    So I drew charts this weekend…

    2010 Market Run Up—holding 10 & 20 sma’s for 2+ months!!! –people thought it would lead to a crash

    http://www.screencast.com/t/bkQU8xSZaf

    Right now, we have the same 2+ month run up!! (holding the 10 & 20 sma’s)…so crash must come?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/EKOB94gtjr3m

    Here was the “Big Crash” many warned of (less than a month dip to the 50sma)

    http://www.screencast.com/t/53cZVByi9Bn

    So could a repeat do this?? Time will tell.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/7Y3af4cYIT41

    The reason I write this is because I have seen( and been trading ) many good set ups
    in individual equities all along as mentioned in my post last week. IF WE GET A SECOND LEG UP…YOU DONT WANT TO MISS THOSE MOVES….so keep this in mind.

    COMMODITIES have been explosive %-wise.

    Disclaimer: I do not own a pay subscription site and am not opening one. I just want to help people see what COULD happen too…

    -Stay Frosty!

  8. Gary

    In 2010 the intermediate cycle low came right on cue.

    The intermediate cycle has been one of our most dependable tools. It functioned perfectly even during most of QE1 & 2.

    I have no idea why people all of a sudden think this time is different.

  9. don

    its eating my patience now..despite strong dollar…its not falling down..i hope we get a move down instead of up..so as to get a set up pointed out by Alex..

  10. William Wallace

    Alex,

    Those were the two SPX 50+ day QE2 stretched Daily Cycles I was talking about last week. If you look you will see that the golden cross (50dma crossing the 200dma) was well in effect before the first significant pullback occured, right about where we are now in this current cycle. Last week I had mentioned that I took a measurement of the first daily cycle which topped on day 49, it was basically the same exact length as this current cycle we are in now, which if having topped already would be on day 50.

  11. ALEX

    I said 47 days , but the swing was 2 days later ; ]

    I posted that chart here 2 wks ago too, I believe. It’s been a great run.

    Many equities have doubled and even more in just that time…Whew.

    HOWEVER…I am NOT saying we’ll see part 2 again…just maybe and keep alert .

    Hey, I wish you the best on your upcoming surgery!!

  12. William Wallace

    Alex,

    In that first Daily Cycle which topped on day 49 (56 day cycle) there was a retracement to the 50% Fibonacci level off the 200dma. If this current Daily Cycle were also to retrace to the 50% Fib level off the 200dma we would see a bottom around 1306.

  13. ALEX

    SF

    Looks good , a nice drop to clear sentiment is always a good thing.

    And WW I was looking at the 1300 area too (for starters).

    The 50sma is just below 1300 , and a trendline from the lows of OCT, Nov, Dec also leads right to their for added support.

    I usually go one step at a time, so from there…I would re-evaluate how we got there.

  14. William Wallace

    Alex,

    Last week when I took that measurement, I believe it may have been on Thursday, I mentioned that if this current cycle were to top at basically the same exact measurement it would be on Friday at day 50, it also converged with the 5/2/11 high. Lets see if this top holds.

  15. William Wallace

    Alex said:

    “The 50sma is just below 1300 , and a trendline from the lows of OCT, Nov, Dec also leads right to their for added support.”

    If this decline chops (similar to the Nov 10′ decline), the 50sma should be right around the 1300 handle by then.

  16. ALEX

    W W

    Do you have a thought about what the markets may do after a dip here?

    I have been looking at all the commodities rising up off the bottoms and I feel (BUT I WILL SEE WHAT THE MKT SAYS WHEN IT’S READY) THAT WE CONTINUE HIGHER.

    It may be another “Sell in May and Go Away”. But time will tell.

  17. sophia

    Aaron re 13.14pm post, thanks!!
    Need to catch up on all the chrts that you drew and shared Alex , thank you!
    W2, kept my shotts April at 1737.60, so far so good…
    Added long usd/ jpy last night, target around 78.18 to start…

  18. William Wallace

    If gold has no plans of pushing higher and is indeed at an A-wave top, this is where bulls and bears start getting whipsawed to death, as gold begins to grind into a B-wave. As we seen with the C-wave top, we may see here on a smaller scale, possibly the branch of my falling fruit pattern being formed here.

  19. William Wallace

    Felipe,

    During the C-wave top I shorted gold at $1900 and just left it on for weeks as the top churned out. If my stop is not triggered I just let it ride and take a break.

  20. William Wallace

    You try to trade at this point in the topping process (if gold is indeed moving into a B-wave here) and you will get bloody. There’s a time when you just step back, even when short, and just watch.

  21. sophia

    W2,

    I like when you see your falling fruit pattern…It does usually mean fun times ahead and sleepless night like in Sep2011 when it traded the lows at the European open!

  22. sophia

    W2,

    it was really cool to witness that!
    now, look, I sold back my USD/JPY at 78.10 thos morning and now the beast is cruising at 78.30!! Arghhh….
    BUT, I had an epiphany. Gary is right, the currency war has started…BOJ is starting to weaken the Yen and they are going to make it this time! You can buy Nikkei hands over fists on this one!

  23. DP

    …at ease —

    I’ve seen you’ve been Happy ValentinedI by Eamonn as one of the girls in here, and thought I had a discussion with you in Swiss kitchen restaurant during latest SMT meeting in Switzerland.

    That wasn’t probably you.

    Happy Valentines!

  24. Gary

    DP,
    2008 was triggered by 700 billion in debt that needed to be rolled over in Sept. The banking system was basically insolvent so the financial system locked up when the banks tried to roll that debt.

  25. thedocument

    WW,

    Assuming last Friday was not a DCL for gold, we would now be on Day 31 of a daily cycle. This cycle is very mature… over-ripe, even. It does not seem like the most opportune time to be trying the short side, even for someone crazy enough to short a bull market.

  26. William Wallace

    My initial short was put on at $1760 on 2/2 when I warned of a potential A-wave top, took the short off at $1710. Went long and took that long off at $1722. Put the short back on at $1737…nothing crazy about that.

  27. William Wallace

    Matt,

    I actually took profits that day and went long,Then short again Sunday night at 1733.30, if you remember I also mentioned on Friday that at the open on Sunday we would see gold test that $1735-37 level, and it did exactly that.

  28. SF Giants Fan

    Gary

    Great call on the buck. I can’t see many longs wanting to hold thru the upcoming 3 day weekend. Let the selling begin…

    You Never know, Moody’s might downgrade the US debt next.

  29. Matt

    I get lucky once and a while. Of course the risk in doing such a move is high and usually wakes me up once or twice during the night. Just as easily as I could get filled, I could also wake up with a zero balance in my account.

  30. William Wallace

    If the branch of my falling fruit pattern is indeed being formed on a daily, we will likely see gold remain wedged between the 10dma and the 20dma for another day or more, on the last day before the fruit falls there will be a backtest of the 10dma. You can see an example of this in the C-wave top.

  31. thedocument

    WW,

    I’m not questioning your trading skills, only your lack of risk adversity. In the environment of economic and geopolitical risk we suffer these days, I would not be able to sleep with a PM short on my books. We could wake up any morning to a surprise… a nuclear test by Iran, the announcement of a gold-backed currency by Russia… and suddenly see gold several hundred dollars higher. Perhaps none of this will happen, and a skilled trader such as yourself will continue to milk the markets, but if such an event were to occur, you could lose a year or more worth of profit overnight.

  32. William Wallace

    Sophia,

    when I said “BTW, I dont plan on starting a newsletter.” I didn’t mean it to tease, simply meant that I share my trades for one reason alone, to help others.

  33. Bill

    This top (if it is a top) in GLD does not now look like Nov. There’s no bipolar up/down, just little jabs up/down. This is looking to me like a bull flag now. Before I said I’d enter at 171.23; now I’d enter at 167.94, w/a floor at 166. FYI 166.5 or so has been tested 4X, and we did not go lower.

  34. Rob L

    William Wallace ,

    Not the falling fruit pattern again? Do you have a target at what price it will fall too?

    Sorry if you have already made this known. I have been quite busy lately.

  35. muttonfish

    Today’s action is a very good example of why Gary’s #1 trading rule is never, never, never, never short gold (at least while it’s in a bull market…another 3 or so years)

    Gary knows what he’s talking about.

  36. William Wallace

    Rob L,

    I mentioned a few levels I was looking at if gold breaks lower. Here’s the post. The only thing that changed is the DC trendline is now well above the 150dma.

    “Just want to point out (besides trying to pin point it in realtime) a few significant levels im looking at for a DCL in gold now that the move into a DCL may be underway…

    First of all, as I have mentioned many times in the past, a break of the 10dma this late in the timing band for a DC top almost always indicates that the move towards a DCL is in effect.

    If the requirement for a DC trendline break is fullfilled, the 150dma and $1700 handle will be breached, they have basically all converged.

    If the 150dma is indeed breached, below that we have both the C-wave 23.6% and the current Daily Cycle 38.2% Fib levels at $1673, which is also the 11/22 DCL pivot.

    If that Fib level is breached (personally I dont put too much faith in them as hard support)we have the 50dma currently at $1664, which I have much more confidence in for a firm bottom.

    If the 50dma is breached under heavy selling pressure we have the 200dma not far below, if this were the case most likely the 200dma (or slightly above it) will mark the bottom and give us a key reversal that will close at or above the 50dma.

    A into B waves are even more tricky to navigate than D into A waves…one A-wave daily cycle or two? Maybe three! If two the second possibly fails and one is caught in a B-wave…you know the deal.

    Wouldn’t it be great if gold was just entering the bubble phase and the ABCD pattern was abolished?”

    February 4, 2012 11:15 AM

    I also have targets for a top in mind if we get a second DC higher…talk about that when the time comes.

  37. Bill

    GLD at 166 is important – Ben’s Jan 25th comments left gold there at market close. Then the 26th GLD gapped up and went higher. GLD is now testing that gap between 166.00 – 166.50, and the gap is holding so far. If we start going higher (higher high’s on the 30 min chart) I’ll buy a small pos. Say at 168.00.

  38. Bill

    If gold is going to go down as the daily MACD suggests, it had better hurry up. We need 2 or 3 big down days asap, or else we’re going up.

  39. Bill

    TheDoc, are you still bullish on gold? Are you seeing the last week’s activity in gold as a bull flag? I’m not a cycles guy and I don’t follow the dollar anymore; just watching gold here makes me think that it’s going up. If it’s going down, it had better hurry up.

    I think of gold as an emotional beast – like a lion sitting in the grass – or a tiger shark cruising by a school of turtles – it may look like it’s resting but have no doubt gold is always ready to pounce and kill.

  40. Bill

    WW, thanks for your comments.

    I’m using the 10d EMA as my trigger at $1725 – a close at or above that would cause me to go long.

    If the S&P fell hard and pulled gold down w/it, I’d be smiling ear to ear. I’d be then looking for a higher low – the bottom of the B wave I guess, if Dec was the bottom of the D. If gold goes lower, then the D is back in play as Gary has on the back shelf.

  41. TZ(8155)

    Apple is near a peak.

    Irrespective of Gary’s comments I was noticing the same action.

    If I was long apple I would be out within the next 5 business days.

  42. TZ(8155)

    When I say apple peak, I mean THE peak. As in 500billion for the company and that’s it. Done. Over.

    Apple is a maximum optimism. Maximum ownership. Maximum everything. There is also the law of ‘large numbers’ to contend with. It’s hard to get a double when your investment is near the largest mkt cap in history.

    This accellerated surge in the chart looks to be a final capitulation and buying frenzy.

    Technology is VERY fickle and FEW examples in history have a permanence in the field.

    I don’t own apple, but like I said I think I would take the money and leave at this point. It has been a heck of a ride, but I think there are better choices going forward. Maybe I’m wrong.

  43. TZ(8155)

    I would also suggest that the ‘gleem’ of iphones and ipads is starting to die off.

    Most iphone owners are now on their 2nd or third phone. Not much is changing going forward. They will be a bit faster, or larger screen or whatever. But the “I have an iphone so I’m COOL” factor is starting to die I think. It’s just a phone and no matter how neat something is people tire eventually.

    Having portable tablets is nice and that is a bit newer, but Android is close to being ‘good enough’ and Microsoft launches windows 8 in fall including and ARM based tablet version.

    I simply think the investment is played out. More room down than up on apple.

  44. TZ(8155)

    This week is options expiration. The sweet spot for GLD looks to be 165 – $2 down from here.

    That interestingly coincides with the same zone I am looking to buy and it would push gold below 1700 (gold FUTURES options expire later in the month so that is a different thing).

    Most of the manipulation for options week happens before fri. Friday’s just end up being flatlines often. So I expect this move down in the next 48hrs.

    That would also still be within the window of this cycle low people are expecting.

    And even WW was making comments about that buy zone.

    So it is looking good around there I think and we are almost in.

  45. TZ(8155)

    We also have that swing in the dollar gary was talking about, and DOC often says that new cycles in the dollar (IF they are heading down) usually peak in 3-5 days or so. If that is true and we are heading lower then going up for another 2 days or so ALSO meshes with my expectations for gold.

    So I’m liking what I see.

  46. St. Deluise

    i mean.. given the fact that WORLDWIDE currency devaluation is the impetus for gold’s bull market..

    at some point these currency ratios lose their meaning, don’t they?

    especially for something like gold, which (presumably) the same absolute price worldwide.

    not saying that time is now, but *eventually* it will be necessary to abandon the idea that gold’s moves are somehow dependent on the DXY.

  47. Quy

    TZ,

    I too think AAPL is peaking, but here’ the monkey in the wrench. Stock markets seem to take lead from AAPL, if AAPL is peaking, does that mean GLD will move up with stocks moving down ?

  48. thedocument

    Bill,

    Yes I still believe gold will have another bullish daily cycle (and oil, too). The nice thing about cycles is that once gold confirms a new daily cycle with a swing low and trend line break, I will have a hard stop on positions just in case I’m wrong.

  49. MrMiyagi

    $NYMO ended up -15 today, although this bearish trend can carry further south I think it bounces again, as it did on Monday.
    Green Wednesday.

  50. William Wallace

    Sophia,

    Hoped you would have taken off that short with me at around $1716 today when I mentioned I was taking it off until I see gold breach the 20dma to the downside. Three unsuccessful times today was enough for me to take it off.

  51. SF Giants Fan

    TZ

    If the dollar peaks and rolls over in a few days, I can see gold moving higher. But the stock market is stretched beyond belief. I just can’t see how it can move higher without some pullback.

  52. Bill

    Phil, did you buy SA? Good on you if you did. 60 min chart now shows neg divergence in RSI and MACD though. Strange how every PM stock went down except this one, at least on my radar.

  53. sophia

    William,

    It feels like it indeed…not talking my book, but took a small long DowJones and I was swaeting until I offloaded it 5 minutes ago…Something doesn’t feel right

  54. Quy

    WW,

    Sold the puts with small loss cause I bought late. Wish I had the capital to play futures. Will buy some calls tomorrow. Keep posting bud, there are more of us reading them than you know !

  55. Bill

    sophia, “really weird”? Are you kidding?

    The Bank of Japan publicly said that they are intervening again, this time w/out int’l coordination, using offline tactics.

    Be careful, because there is no way to predict their actions; and their actions will be decisive and impactful, as we see today. Good luck though.

  56. William Wallace

    Quy,

    May I suggest you dont go long gold with options until atleast a clean break of the 10dma and a swing low (move above $1737), even then its risky being the stock market is way stretched and if it rolls deep gold is going with it most likely.

  57. sophia

    At ease,

    No need to rush on this one…If Gary is right, just remember how it felt in Nov/Dec , you don’t want to be caught into one of those nasty ones!

  58. Bill

    sophia, no I don’t for tax reasons. If I want to trade Japan, I use the US market using ETF’s like EWJ, or specific stocks like TM, HMC and SNE.

  59. Bill

    WW, good point when you said this:

    “If gold cant push above the 10dma with a rallying stock market, its not going anywhere.”

    Good point.

  60. sophia

    At ease,

    You are so right! But I am learning so much from him and he is such a good heart!
    Time for bed …3.30am here…damned insomnia

  61. Bill

    sophia, there is another reason: a combo, really. The Japan market usually just follows the US market, so it gaps up or down at open, and stays flat all day, much of the time. And since I want to be a position trader and not a day trader, that isn’t my cup of tea.

  62. Bill

    WW, you mentioned once that you used to be a gangster. So what happened? Did someone take a baseball to one side of your head, knocking out all the bad, and allowing the good to take over?

    Please don’t whack me w/your reply! πŸ˜‰

  63. Bill

    On currencies, sometimes I look at FXA, FXC, and FXF to know what FXE is likely to do, esp. FXF. They all seem to be turning over, matching UUP rising.

    Seems that GLD should correct down here.

    But dang I will NEVER trust GLD. I remain ready for a breakout, just in case some billionnaire figures out that his/her cash is just paper, and buys physical, or if Iran launches, as theDoc said. Anything can happen.

  64. Quy

    WW – I tried going back to old posts , but never found what kind of accident you were in. Don’t have to reply if u feel I’m prying. If I’m not prying, what kind of surgery are u getting ?

  65. Phil

    Bill,

    Re: seabridge–I posted about the chart pattern over this past weekend. I hold some shares as I think it’s a no-brainer based on assets in the ground alone. China will likely buy them unless an American company figures out how ridiculously undervalued they are….soon.

  66. Bill

    But, that said, I just noticed the same action in Oct … then price went down. Are you trading it, or buy/hold? If trading, I for one would maybe take 1/2 off the table after such a big move. Good luck.

  67. William Wallace

    Quy,

    I was in a motorcycle accident when I was 19, im 36 now. Someone made an illegal U-turn in front of me when I was doing about 90mph on a two way main road. I hit the front end of the car (had it been the side I wouldnt be talking to you right now) and split the bike in two, taking the motor out of the car. I blew my right leg off my body, broke my left leg in multiple areas, flew over 50 feet and hit a tree breaking my pelvis, back, left shoulder, and split my head open. Had I not been 215 lbs. of ripped hard muscle I would have probably been worse.

  68. KAL

    Dude, WW, sounds like you have a great testimony there. Love to hear it sometime… You are a year older than me, didn’t know that. Been following your transformation of the blog for awhile. Keep up the good work helping out the team!

  69. William Wallace

    Kal,

    Yeah I definitely have one heck of a testimony, maybe one day we will talk about it.

    We are certainly a team, and when everyone recognizes that and plays hard we will be unstoppable, and we have none other to thank for creating such a team than our coach – Gary.

  70. Bill

    Phil, I’ll study SA and maybe buy a small pos if there’s any pullback. Gold in the ground is hard to come by now – thanks for pointing it out.

  71. Rob L

    WW,

    Dang, I didn’t know the details of your accident – I am so sorry.

    I am embarrassed for being ticked off after stubbing my big toe last week. And yes, it really hurt. πŸ™‚

  72. Quy

    WW – Wow ! I thought I had it bad. I’m 49, got bell’s palsy, wife left me cause I didn’t have $. But I got to thank her, cause I found Christ like you did (so glad to hear Jesus changed u). The amazing peace/joy he gave me (like the bible says) surpass understanding ! There, since I’m a newbie, thought I give u guys a gist of it. Appreciate anyone sharing their story. Feel u guys know each other, but I have no clue who u guys are.
    WW – to quote a saying in the Spiderman movie, “with great powers come great responsibility, so you know u got a big burden being our “guiding angel”, right πŸ™‚

  73. William Wallace

    86 makes some amazing Fur gear, its so beautiful I sit there staring at it in awe…lol. I got a hat, some scarfs, and gloves, absolutely beautiful. I recommend anyone who likes fur get in touch with him and buy some of his gear.

    My son puts on the Elmer Fud beaver hat and I absolutely die laughing, becuz it looks exactly like he has really long brown hair, I call him Rod Stewarts son, he looks like a 1980’s rockstar!

  74. ckpc

    I’m sitting here speechless, and humbled by the comments tonight. No commercial Valentine’s card comes close to the honesty and love shared this evening, and demonstrated every day by you good people. I have such an enormous respect for all of you who contribute, and to Gary for bringing such an amazing group together.
    WW, you blow my mind.

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