CHART OF THE DAY

20 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY”

Just a BRICS in the Wall February 15, 2015 at 4:14 pm

What if there’s a Grexit and the situation in Europe turns into a Cluster*&%# …. wont the Wall Street crowd hype the “Dollar is a Safe haven” story and funnel more hot money into the Dollar?.
1. Just a BRICS in the Wall February 15, 2015 at 4:16 pm
  
  Or is a Grexit already largely priced into the Dollar?.
  1. gary Post authorFebruary 15, 2015 at 10:03 pm
    
    maybe thats what sends the dollar to the 102 level
    1. Just a BRICS in the Wall February 15, 2015 at 10:21 pm
      
      My opinion is; once some of the directional uncertainty around the Grexit is known, then some of the hot air can start slowly leaking out of the Dollar.
  2. MuffinTop February 15, 2015 at 10:04 pm
    
    I could be wrong on this one but this stuff is normally priced in weeks, if not months ahead of time.. hence why ‘Technical Chart Analysis’ is so lucrative to anyone investing their own money.
Don Mclean February 15, 2015 at 11:05 pm

Gary, are we into the “explosive rally” for the stock market. that you talked about on jan 30th? There was no real sell of that you were expecting so where are we at right now?
1. gary Post authorFebruary 16, 2015 at 2:16 am
  
  I’m expecting one more intermediate degree correction before the stock market takes off to the upside. It’s getting pretty late in the intermediate cycle right now.
  1. crawfordnews February 16, 2015 at 2:33 am
    
    Gary, DITTO looking for $SPX to 2044 and maybe about 1995 this week. It could be the FED statement on WED.
AlexB February 16, 2015 at 1:55 pm

http://www.mining.com/45-year-chart-shows-dollar-bull-run-just-getting-started-99840/

I’m curious if gary would agree to the analysis linked above

greetings from austria

alex
1. gary Post authorFebruary 16, 2015 at 2:54 pm
  
  Because the CRB is due for a major three year cycle low sometime this year I’m thinking the dollar rally only has one more leg up before this 7 year bull expires and another bear market begins.
  
  The dollar has clearly been in a long secular bear since 85.
  1. arthurk February 16, 2015 at 6:13 pm
    
    USD long-term seems to follow govt policies. Volker raised Fed funds to 15% in early 1980s USD soared to 165 (1 in 100 year event). Afterward, as rates fell and Reagan cut taxes USD fell to low 90s. Clinton raised taxes in latter 1990s USD up to 120. Early 2000s Bush II cut taxes USD fell. Enter Bernake with zero rates and helicopter money USD fell, bottoming below 75.
    
    Now as long as Fed talks about raising rates and follows thru USD will go up (plus Obama talks higher tax rates). In 2016 Bush III will be elected on cutting rates for Joe the plumber, then USD falls.
    1. ken February 16, 2015 at 6:57 pm
      
      Obama tax plan: Middle-class credits, increases for rich
      
      http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/17/politics/obama-state-of-the-union-taxes/
Just a BRICS in the Wall February 16, 2015 at 5:58 pm

Draft Greek debt deal dismissed as “absurd” as hope of agreement rapidly fades;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11414969/Greek-debt-standoff-Live.html

Greek Euro exit is ‘inevitable’, former UK Chancellor Ken Clarke warns;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11414196/Greek-Euro-exit-is-inevitable-former-UK-Chancellor-Ken-Clarke-warns.html
Don February 17, 2015 at 12:10 am

What reason is there for the dollar to fall back under 90? Just because? Its seems that once a trend gets underway, whether it’s the stock market going up, gold going down, or the dollar appreciating rapidly, all counter trends tend to be shallow and short lived, perhaps due to the programming nature of the Algos. Why expect that a strong dollar is going to experience a significant pullback and why should it stop at a fibonacci line on the way up? Gary, you have been proven wrong about the direction of the dollar and it’s time to admit defeat and move on. Clinging to the notion that the dollar is going to collapse is futile.

I would be very careful about shorting the US dollar either now or a year from now. A new trend has been established and it’s UP.
1. gary Post authorFebruary 17, 2015 at 12:12 pm
  
  The reason is that sentiment is too bearish. The dollar just needs a corrective move to reset sentiment and relieve the overbought conditions. Then another leg up can begin.
MuffinBottom February 17, 2015 at 9:46 am

Savage picking on the $USD, again. One would think the $USD bull has gored you enough to lay off, but … no.
Savage hanging tough with his bi-monthly if not weekly $USD top calls.

Meanwhile, gold & particularly silver getting oddly smoked in the overnight. …. let’s see what the light of day brings.
1. gary Post authorFebruary 17, 2015 at 12:16 pm
  
  Assuming that the dollar does end the day down and if we get one more down day tomorrow that would complete a 4 day rule potential trend change and swing the odds heavily in favor of an intermediate degree correction having begun. Confirmation would come once the dollar drops below 93.24 and signals a failed daily cycle.
  
  I would then look for a bottom around the first or second week of March. After that then I think the dollar and euro go to parity this year.
Jonathan February 17, 2015 at 4:15 pm

A while ago, a lot of bears talked about the high yield drop as one of the reasons of the upcoming stock market crash. Now the high yield turned back up and nobody (except Tom Lee) cared to mention it. 🙂
Just a BRICS in the Wall February 17, 2015 at 8:31 pm

If Greece leaves the EU and prints Drachma’s I think the Euro might actually strengthen.
Just a BRICS in the Wall February 18, 2015 at 7:44 pm

So much for a upcoming Interest Rate Increase Dollar rally …

FOMC: MANY FED OFFICIALS INCLINED TO STAY AT ZERO LONGER: MINUTES

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