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I think oil is forming a head and shoulders bottom.
seasonality
The Saudis aren’t going to lower production. Unless everyone else agrees to do it at the same time, crude will not go anywhere, it would probably stick around $47.
this will determine the short and medium term direction of oil http://www.cnbc.com/id/102568728
Gary, you continually call for a correction in the dollar but it just keeps marching upwards after very minor pullbacks. It is now only a few percent from it’s high. Are you going to admit defeat and get on board the dollar train.?
Paydro, mi Hermano.. I think you’re missing the point here! Yes, the dollar has an enormous ‘hard-on’ but nothing ever goes up forever and in one straight line, eventually.. Equities, Currencies and whatever else you can think of has to correct. Laws of the Universe. And so even though Gary’s timing on this one has been off just a tad; the Dollar (whether you like it or not) is due for one hell of a correction, and it’ll happen..!
Vamonos!
No way i would buy long the dollar this late in a parabolic rally. Are your crazy? I’ll wait for an intermediate correction and then buy the dollar.
Are you still thinking the USD-index will fall as stated on the 30th of March?
Yes the dollar needs to generate an intermediate degree correction. The longer this parabolic rise continues the more severe the correction will be.
Muffin : People have been saying that the stock market is due for a correction for years now and it hasn’t happened. The same may be occurring with the dollar. NOBODY really knows for certain where the dollar will be six months from now so Gary is just guessing, like the rest of us.
What do you mean the stock market hasn’t corrected?
2010
2011
June 2012
Nov. 2012
June 2013
Feb. 2014
Oct. 2014
All of those were intermediate degree corrections.
Gary, you would know what the definition is of what constitutes a correction, right? A dip of over 10%. The last correction was just barely so in 2012 at 10.78%. Anything since then has been just a ‘pullback’.
A correction is an intermediate cycle low. It doesn’t have to fallen into a certain percentage. it just has to meet the confirmations for an ICL.
Arguably, a sloping head and shoulders bottom pattern might already have been activated (on the 6th, looking at /CLK5), which would explain why the algos are buying every dip even as the dollar index heads towards 100.
I am sure Gary knows what defines a correction, but Paydro is right. It seems that markets today have a tendency to move in one direction only for extended periods of time . The S&P, the dollar, the collapse in gold , the stock exchanges of Japan and China are all examples of unusual trending. Perhaps this new normal is the result of having the bulk of trading done by computers.
Guys don’t stare at leaves.