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This falls in the category ‘I know chart porn when I see it’.
1250 is way too optimistic. Gold bulls will be lucky to see 1130 before the collapse to 980-ish.
I like momo traders with no clue:))))) I say we will see even 1350. Why? simple everybody like you should buy the short squeeeeeze
Buying every dip in the S&P has been easy money since the 2011 correction ended. Easy money can last for years and years. 🙂
Either we bounce hard tomorrow or I’ll take the loss and stay out of miners for now. Don’t want to risk another Sunday night smash. The “bounce skeptics” were right.
The worst could over, since, after all, a bloodbath already happened, but there’s also a 50% chance that the worst isn’t over and the bloodbath will continue before we rally. 🙂 In other words, “danger…could go higher, or could go lower” 🙂
1033 is a possibility. There are forces trying to get it there. But every short in the world is going to cover at that point and any short stupid enough to keep holding and hoping for more deserves to get their head handed to them.
That’s the downside risk. Maybe the manipulation succeeds in driving gold to 1033. The upside is huge from here as everyone is going to assume that the bear ended at 1033 and that’s what I think will drive the next rally to 1250. Massive short covering and massive buying as traders start to make bets that the bear has come to an end.
I have my doubts that will be the final bottom but gold needs to do something unexpected in order to get enough bulls on board for the final move into the 8 year cycle low. A higher intermediate high would do the trick and convince everyone that the bear is finished. Then gold could roll over and make a final run to retest the breakout above the 1980 high at 850.
That would be the final bear market low.
Gary Gary Gary you did not do your homework again:) the target for an expanded flat is 1350 more optimistic:)
At least you have the bottom right around 850.
Take the first leg lower from the top until now in percentage , than another leg lower from 1350 with the same size in percentage lower and …… wow magic 850.
Huge corrective zig-zag is running no magic:)
Guys!! Pleeeaase.. Let’s make this bounce happen. Daddy’s got billz to pay!!
Close your eyes and wish it.
I wish it! I wish it! I really really REALLY wish it!
BUT, what about that cliff we all went over just 2 weeks ago? It still has me NERVOUS. That much money put on the table on Sunday night. How can we be sure that they are done? I don’t think they’re done.
The temporary shelf we are on feels really great. 9 days of sideways up/down – I love it. I just hope that if we break out and go up, that it will be 2 steps up, 1 down, rather than a rocket blast up, because I just can’t take these massive gaps anymore.
So, cycles and sentiment and TA all say that we’re at a bottom, about to go up. But there is a GODZILLA in the room, and they win every time.
Actually they hit gold last night too with 3 contract dumps of 3200 each. But it failed to trigger another slide down to 1033. So there is no guarantee that they can get it there and it’s getting more and more dangerous to continue these manipulations this late in a stretched cycle.
Holy short fleecing Batman. Looks like I’ll be holding on after all.
So what just caused the dollar drop / silver & gold spike premarket?
Gary, do you think this http://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm really can do such a move? I really doubt it…, what behind it? end of the month…
Friday after close … I’m still 100% in cash, and looking at the daily and 1 hr charts of GDX, I’d say that the next likely move is lower, in a final low. I think we’re on a shelf, not a bottom.
Maybe in Gary’s cycle terms this would become a stretched ICL?
If we were at a bottom, after such a dramatic fall, we wouldn’t have been screwing around here, going NOWHERE, for the last TEN DAYS, going no where.
We had a chance to go up, and we DIDN’T.
Energy is building, for the last/final leg down, me thinks.
We also had the chance to go DOWN further, but DIDN’T either.
Me thinks we are looking for a 4 wave up and then a final to 1033. I tried to count the waves with my limited skills in EW here:
and then my sith lord master adjusted it a bit:
is this the final low? I don’t know … but a very nice subBear rally would be most welcome 🙂
I think I will take a position in some gold/silver miners on Monday and Tuesday.
I am also looking at some oil resource companies. I think we might get a new 52 week low this coming week but I am not convinced that we will go straight down to 35 bucks. (I also think, if we do go to 35 bucks this summer, that we will not be there for too long.). I think, a bit like Gary’s call for a bounce in the precious metals, that we could get a new low and then a sizeable bounce in oil.
Does anyone else have any thoughts on oil?
The entire commodity complex is due for a major 3 year cycle low sometime this year. At the moment I’m expecting it late in the fall or winter.
The Chinese PMI figures are out on Tuesday so they could whallop the commodities – unless the Chinese come out and tell us that things are hunky dory.
I noticed that the Saudis announced this week that they intend cutting oil production at the end of the summer – it seems to have gone almost unnoticed.
No idea by how much they intend to cut but presumably it is tied in with them having gone to the markets this summer to borrow money – rare indeed – for their own domestic spending. Perhaps they have decided that they don’t like borrowing and now prefer a higher oil price that affords them not to do so? All speculation of course.
Just wondering how much lower oil will go IF the Saudis do cut production as they claim.