It seems like everyone has become convinced that the dollar is going higher and the euro is going to parity…myself included. I’m starting to wonder if everyone is 180 degrees wrong on this thesis.




34 thoughts on “CURRENCY CONFUSION

  1. jack

    Hi Gary

    could you please update copper a little bit? Are we going to see some short term bounce in copper?


    1. gary Post author

      I don’t really have a cycle count on copper although it should bottom along with the rest of the commodity complex. Just waiting on oil.

        1. gary Post author

          Exactly, the cycle has now evolved into a 7 year cycle because of central bank interventions, QE and ZIRP.

  2. AlexP

    Gary, weren’t the last three 3-year cycle lows in USD as at these dates: APR2008, APR2011 and MAY2014?
    With the last 3-year cycl low as early as MAY2014 there is room for USD to go higher.
    More precisely, USD is chronologically:
    1) to set now to put a much-awaited-by-me YCL most likely at the end of SEP as FED postpones the rate hike – actually there is no rate hike gonna to happen – (thus setting this YC of USD to have lasted 1y and 4 months, MAY2014-SEP2015) and then
    2) to begin its second YC within the current 3YC and most likely to yield a higher high as deflationary pressures induced by Asia (China+ japanese debt restructuring) will prevail any effort of FED in the medium-term.

    This will also set for stocks to go lower for an extended period – i.e. into next summer/fall of 2016.
    What’s your take on that?

    1. gary Post author

      That was my original expectation, but if the triangle trend line gets broken, and especially if the May low gets violated then we would be looking at a three year cycle that is topping in a left translated pattern.

  3. kersh

    Gary, is it possible that the Fed spoke of the rate hike knowing that they wouldn’t raise it, and the dollar would subsequently fall much more quickly than what would be normal after it becoming a fact, so they could juice the revenues of our domestic exporters? Or am I giving them too much credit for thinking of such a thing?

    1. gary Post author

      I think they have or had every intention of raising rates, but had no idea the market would drop into a 7 year cycle low and prevent it.

  4. Frank

    With the Sunday night SPX futures nearing down 20, I have to say “do you see the power of the diagonal triangle?” While it built itself over the last year, we were not sure, but now that it is over there is nowhere to go but directly down to the start point of SPX 1820. That will be some predicted, short trade.

  5. gary Post author

    Dow futures. down over 400 points. A full on crash is now in progress. This is what happens when the Fed tries to artificially prop up the market when the natural path is down and has been since the beginning of the year. The end game becomes much worse than it would have been naturally.

      1. Jonathan

        I saw China and Taiwan down more than 7%, Dubai and Saudi down almost 7%. I have not checked the close prices yet.

  6. Just a BRICS in the Wall

    Dollar breaks???? …. don’t you remember? – FED rate hike in September!.

  7. Jonathan

    I saw news that Nasdaq was down 5% and entered “limit down”. I can’t reach my broker, can someone list the limit down % for the Dow and S&P futures as well as the % for the “circuit breaker”? How does the “circuit breaker” work?

    1. Paul

      With currencies and oil in a flux, I am not sure that is a wise statement.
      I got 100% out of the market COB August 5th, 2015.
      When I get back in, I’ll let ya’s know.

    1. Tom

      Anyone thinking today was a buying opportunity in the markets is very mistaken. At best we are going to consolidate before heading down. This is the market anticipating a Fed rate hike. The Fed did not curb deflation (even though Gary says they did) and therefore the markets need to compensate for that.
      Cash= King

  8. Wiseguy

    I know you guys do cycles and I respect that but according to EW, the dollar can go lower and still pop higher again. And according to my EW count in gold (which isn’t perfect), it can still make one more high before heading back lower. I tend to view my EW counts in alignment with Avi and Armstrong especially when they align. Both are watching for Gold to correct now or soon (so does Doc Postma). We will see if Gary’s cycles beat those three technicians or not. I’m mostly just sitting back and watching at this point.

    In any case, gold miners are currently oversold and deserve at least some pop for the rest of the week. If they don’t, that will also be very telling.

  9. Gregor

    The age old script for gold during stock market sell-offs is very much in play. Gold holds up well or even rallies some into the early stages of the decline. When the decline gets vicious, gold stops rising but holds its ground. Then, when stock markets start to stabilize, gold, “out of nowhere” gets slammed to the downside. Just when you think that’s a head fake, gold then declines further as the stock market goes down for it’s re-test. I expect gold to take out its previous 2015 low during this stock market correction, or shortly thereafter. All best, G

  10. Braden

    Gold barely moves and miners get castrated.

    When will the blood stop?

    It’s really unbelievable how these stocks continue to be completely obliterated.

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